Baisangur Susurkaev vs Donte Johnson – UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit Fight Analytics & Prediction

PRELIM · MIDDLEWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit

Baisangur Susurkaev

“Hunter”

12W0L

Long Volume Finisher

Donte Johnson

“Lock Jaw”

9W0L

Southpaw Counter

Unbeaten vs unbeaten — same McConico, six inches apart

MiddleweightMadison Square Garden, New York CityNovember 14, 202630ft Octagon

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Three-round middleweight preliminary in the 30-foot Madison Square Garden Octagon. Baisangur "Hunter" Susurkaev is 12-0. Fight-night age 25, orthodox, 6'2" with a 79" reach. Rate line, which includes Contender Series: 5.74 SLpM, 54% accuracy, 58% striking defence, 4.45 SApM, 2.09 TD/15 at 26%, 100% takedown defence and 0.8 Sub/15. Three UFC roster wins: a rear-naked choke of Djorden Santos, a knockout of Eric McConico, and a rear-naked choke of Eric Nolan. Donte "Lock Jaw" Johnson is 9-0, fight-night age 27, southpaw, 5'8" with a 74" reach. Rate line, which includes Contender Series: 3.36 SLpM, 46% accuracy, 61% striking defence, 2.11 SApM, 1.87 TD/15 at 100%, 76% takedown defence and 0.6 Sub/15. He also stopped Eric McConico, faster, in August 2026. We take Susurkaev 60% / Johnson 40% at conviction 5 / 10.

Baisangur Susurkaev

Attribute

Donte Johnson

25Jan 8, 2001 vs Jan 25, 1999

Age

6'2"+6" Susurkaev

Height

5'8"

79"+5" Susurkaev

Reach

74"

—

Leg Reach

—

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

#38 MW

Card Rank

#41 MW

Announced SOS

UFC Bouts

Volume to late finish

Fighting Style

Southpaw counter, defensive striking

Susurkaev is +6" in height and +5" in reach. Johnson is the southpaw and two years older. Both are unbeaten. Both beat Eric McConico. Susurkaev needed a punch at 1:38 of round three. Johnson needed a punch at 1:38 of round one. A shared opponent is not a transitive result. Three UFC fights each.

Venue Factor
Thirty feet gives the 79-inch reach a lane. It also gives a southpaw room to counter. Johnson's defensive numbers (2.11 absorbed, 61% defence) are the case for using that space. Susurkaev's size is the case for not letting him.

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Baisangur Susurkaev

Pro Record

12-0-0

UFC Record

3-0 — Santos RNC, McConico KO, Nolan RNC

Streak

Undefeated; three straight UFC finishes

Finish Rate

92% of wins (11 of 12) — 9 KO/TKO, 2 submissions

Avg Fight Time

Roster finishes: R3 4:12, R3 1:38, R2 2:01 — not a 90-second MW

Chin · Absorbs 4.45; competitive volume fights before finishesSOS · Announced 7Long Volume Finisher

Susurkaev's pattern is a long fight he is winning on volume and then finishes. Two of three roster wins needed the championship round of a three-round bout.

Donte Johnson

Pro Record

9-0-0

UFC Record

3-0 — McConico KO, Brundage SD, Dumas guillotine

Streak

Undefeated; faster McConico finish than Susurkaev

Finish Rate

89% of wins (8 of 9) — 7 KO/TKO, 1 submission

Avg Fight Time

McConico R1 1:38; Dumas R2 1:25; Brundage went 15:00

Chin · 2.11 SApM, 61% defence — best defensive striking in the fightSOS · Announced 9Southpaw Counter Finisher

Johnson finished the common opponent a full two rounds earlier. Defensive rates keep him live. Size is not his edge.

Baisangur Susurkaev

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Knockdown Exchange

Knockdowns dealt vs absorbed.

Donte Johnson

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Baisangur Susurkaevsignature weapons

Reach + Volume79" reach, 5.74 SLpM at 54% — Santos 107-78

×3

Rear-Naked ChokeSantos R3 4:12 and Nolan R2 2:01

×2

Donte Johnsonsignature weapons

Defensive Striking2.11 SApM, 61% defence — best defensive numbers in the fight

×0

Early Power / GuillotineMcConico R1 1:38; Dumas guillotine R2 1:25

×2

Baisangur Susurkaev

Djorden Santos

Technical submission — rear-naked choke

Opponent context: ufc

R3 (4:12)

UFC 328 — May 9, 2026

Eric McConico

KO/TKO — punch

Opponent context: prospect

R3 (1:38)

Nov 15, 2025 · UFC

Eric Nolan

Submission — rear-naked choke

Opponent context: ufc

R2 (2:01)

UFC 319 — Aug 16, 2025

Murtaza Talha

KO/TKO — kick

Opponent context: prospect

R1 (3:04)

Aug 12, 2025 · DWCS

Irakli Kuchukhidze

TKO — punches

R2 (2:12)

Fury FC 102 — Feb 21, 2025

Pattern

5-0 in the last five. Wins over Santos (submission), McConico (knockout), Nolan (submission), Talha (knockout) and Kuchukhidze (TKO). Most recent: a win over Santos, May 9, 2026.

Donte Johnson

Eric McConico

KO/TKO — punch

Opponent context: prospect

R1 (1:38)

Aug 15, 2026 · UFC

Cody Brundage

Split decision

Opponent context: prospect

Mar 7, 2026 · UFC

Sedriques Dumas

Submission — ninja choke

Opponent context: ufc

R2 (1:25)

UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama — Nov 1, 2025

Darion Abbey

KO/TKO — punches

Opponent context: prospect

R1 (1:04)

Aug 26, 2025 · DWCS

James Ford

KO — punch

R1 (3:37)

Fury FC — Jul 27, 2025

Pattern

5-0 in the last five. Wins over McConico (knockout), Brundage (split decision), Dumas (submission), Abbey (knockout) and Ford (knockout). Most recent: a win over McConico, Aug 15, 2026 · UFC.

Baisangur Susurkaev

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Donte Johnson

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Critical Insight
Susurkaev: 9 KO/TKOs, 2 submissions and 1 decision in 12 professional wins. Of Susurkaev's 11 finishes, seven in round one, two in round two and two in round three. Johnson: 7 KO/TKOs, 1 submission and 1 decision in 9 professional wins. All eight of Johnson's finishes came inside the first two rounds, seven in round one. The round bars count every professional win, with decisions in the DEC column.

Common Opponents

Opponent	Baisangur	Donte
Eric McConico	WKO/TKO punch R3 1:38 — Nov 15, 2025	WKO/TKO punch R1 1:38 — Aug 15, 2026
Same opponent, different years, different rounds — not transitive. Johnson was faster.

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and UFC experience before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

Output · Acc · Def

Baisangur

Donte

5.74 / 54% against 3.36 / 46%. Johnson gives up less: 2.11 SApM, 61% defence

Grappling

TD · TDD · Sub

Baisangur

Donte

Susurkaev two roster chokes and 2.09 TD/15 at only 26%. Johnson a guillotine and 100% takedown accuracy on few attempts

Form

Size

Height · Reach

Baisangur

Donte

+6" height, +5" reach

Overall

Weighted blend

Baisangur

Donte

Size and volume, with the defensive numbers keeping Johnson live

Metric	Baisangur	Donte
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	5.74	3.36
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	4.45	2.11
Reach	79"	74"
Height	6'2"	5'8"
UFC Fights	3	3

Archetype Base Rate

Bigger Volume Finisher 60%40% Defensive Southpaw

Size vs defence · Lean follows the bigger man; faster McConico clock keeps Johnson at 40%.

Baisangur SusurkaevDonte Johnson

Middleweight

These values describe each fighter; no division rank is assigned.

Stat	Baisangur	Donte
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	5.74	3.36
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	54%	46%
Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit.	58%	61%
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	4.45	2.11
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	2.09	1.87
TD Acc	26%	100%
TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed.	100%	76%
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	0.8	0.6
Reach	79"	74"
UFC fights	3	3
Card rank	#38	#41

Statistical Verdict
Susurkaev lands more and absorbs more. Johnson is the cleaner defensive fighter on a four-fight line and the one who did not need fifteen minutes to beat McConico. Takedown accuracy favors Johnson on very few attempts. The five-inch reach is a measurement.

Baisangur Susurkaev

Roster finishes: R3 4:12, R3 1:38, R2 2:01 — no first-round UFC win.
DWCS kick was 3:04 R1.

Donte Johnson

Roster finishes: R1 1:38 and R2 1:25, plus a 15-minute split decision.
He can end it early and he can go the distance.

Critical Insight
Susurkaev builds long. Johnson can end it early. Using the faster McConico clock as the whole pick would ignore the six inches.

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much

Open SpaceBaisangur owns it

+5" reach — also where Johnson's defence lives

Pocket / ExchangesDonte owns it

Southpaw counter — McConico path

ClinchBaisangur owns it

2.09 TD/15 at low accuracy vs Johnson's 100% on few attempts

GroundBaisangur owns it

Two roster chokes vs one guillotine

The Deep Read

Johnson finished the common opponent a full two rounds earlier. Susurkaev is still the bigger man, the higher-volume striker, and the one with two submission wins in the UFC. The McConico clocks keep the split from getting wider than 60-40.

Susurkaev's pattern is a long fight that he is winning on volume and then finishes. Johnson's is more mixed: early knockout, messy split decision, guillotine. The defensive rate is the through-line.

Susurkaev 60 / Johnson 40, conviction 5. The bigger man is the lean. The faster win over the same opponent is why 40 is still the right size for the underdog.

Path to Victory

Baisangur Susurkaev

Use the 79-inch reach and the 5.74 SLpM, make Johnson cover six inches of height, and look for the choke that ended Santos and Nolan. The McConico knockout took until round three. Do not assume a first-round finish. He does not have one in the UFC.

Why they win

+6" height, +5" reach

The physical fact the rates do not show.

5.74 SLpM at 54%

Against 3.36 at 46%.

Two roster chokes

Plus a knockout, all in a 12-0 record.

Younger

25 against 27.

The gameplan

1
Jab from longer reach
Mix the shot even at 26% accuracy, hunt the back.
2
Do not blitz
Johnson's absorption number is low for a reason.
3
Build the Santos fight
The late finish of Santos is the template.

Path to Victory

Donte Johnson

Southpaw counter, stay at the end of his own 74 inches, and do not get stuck under a man who out-landed Santos 107-78. The Brundage split decision is the path if the knockout is not there. The Dumas guillotine is the finish if a neck appears. His defensive striking is the real edge. His size is not.

Why they win

2.11 SApM, 61% defence

Best defensive striking numbers in the fight.

Faster McConico

R1 1:38 against Susurkaev's R3 1:38.

Guillotine

Dumas R2 1:25.

Southpaw

100% takedown accuracy so far.

The gameplan

1
Counter the first step
Low kicks to a taller base.
2
Guillotine only if naked
Do not force wrestling into 100% TDD.
3
Avoid volume war
Trading with 5.74 SLpM is the Santos fight.

Danger Zone

How Baisangur Susurkaev loses

McConico first-round version travels up six inches — Johnson by KO.
Blitzing into a southpaw counter.
Trading volume into 2.11 SApM defence.

Danger Zone

How Donte Johnson loses

Santos fight — out-landed for fifteen minutes then choked.
Getting stuck under the longer man.
Split-decision mess against size and volume.

Not transitive

Shared McConico

Same opponent, different years, different rounds. Johnson R1 1:38; Susurkaev R3 1:38. Faster clock does not erase six inches.

rounds earlier

+6" / +5"

Size Is Measurement

Experience is even — three UFC fights each. The reach is a measurement.

79"

Susurkaev reach

Johnson's case

Defensive Edge

2.11 SApM and 61% defence are the best defensive striking numbers in the fight.

2.11

SApM Johnson

Finish clocks

Late vs Early

Susurkaev has not had a first-round UFC win. Johnson ended McConico in round one.

The Five-Round Clock

Baisangur Susurkaev danger windowDonte Johnson danger windowNeutral / contested

R1 · 0:00–5:00Johnson's early power

McConico and Abbey templates. Susurkaev has no R1 UFC finish.

Critical Insight
Three rounds. Johnson equity is front-loaded. Susurkaev equity builds.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things

Susurkaev 60% / Johnson 40%, conviction 5/10 — bigger man lean; faster McConico keeps the underdog live.

Fair −150 / +150. Inside the distance, Susurkaev's combined KO+sub share is 46%.

Best lean: Susurkaev inside the distance. Johnson by KO/TKO at 20% is the southpaw upset.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Susurkaev KO/TKO — 24%Susurkaev Decision — 14%Susurkaev Submission — 22%Johnson KO/TKO — 20%Johnson Decision — 12%Johnson Submission — 8%

Each square = 1 model percentage point. Baisangur Susurkaev gold · Donte Johnson orange · color opacity: 100% = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Size

+6" height and +5" reach.

Volume

5.74 SLpM at 54% against 3.36 at 46%.

McConico clocks

Johnson faster — keeps him at 40%.

Defence

Johnson 2.11 SApM, 61% defence.

Equal experience

Three UFC fights each — the edge is size, not experience.

Fight Scripts

of simulations

Santos Volume + Choke

Susurkaev by submission — Santos/Nolan path.

Scripted outcomes for Baisangur Susurkaev vs Donte Johnson — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Baisangur Susurkaev win probability

24%

14%

22%

KO/TKODECSUB

Twenty-four points — McConico later than Johnson's.
Fourteen points — if he wins minutes and the choke does not land.
Twenty-two points — Santos and Nolan.

Donte Johnson win probability

20%

12%

KO/TKODECSUB

Twenty points — fast McConico path and the main upset.
Twelve points — Brundage path.
Eight points — Dumas guillotine without pretending it is the identity.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round

Donte

Baisangur

29-28 Susurkaev

Volume after early counters

Inside Susurkaev's 14% decision share

29-28 Johnson

Defence and counters travel

Inside Johnson's 12% decision share

30-27 Susurkaev

Reach control all three

Live if size never needs a finish

Model and price

Baisangur Susurkaev

Insufficient price data

Model win probability: 60%
Fair odds: -150

Reference quote: —
Fair decimal odds: 1.67

Estimated EV: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —

Donte Johnson

Quote age unknown

Model win probability: 40%
Fair odds: +150

Reference quote: -169 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 2.50

Estimated EV: -36.3%
Edge vs no-vig market: —

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash marks a price without a same-book pair to compare.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Quotes listed with a date but no time are treated as undated.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Baisangur Susurkaev

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 1.67 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Donte Johnson

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 2.50 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

Best lean: Susurkaev inside the distance (KO 24% + sub 22% = 46%). Johnson by KO/TKO at 20% (fair +400) is the southpaw upset. Distance 26% (fair +285); inside 74% (fair −285).

Conviction

5/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

The bigger man is the lean. The faster win over the same opponent is why 40 is still the right size for the underdog. Conviction 5/10. Lean: Baisangur Susurkaev.

What backs the lean

+6" height and +5" reach
5.74 SLpM at 54% against 3.36 at 46%
Two roster chokes, plus a knockout, all in a 12-0 record
Johnson had to go a split decision with Cody Brundage

What limits it

He knocked out the same McConico in round one
2.11 SApM and 61% defence are the best defensive striking numbers in the fight
Southpaw, unbeaten, and 100% takedown accuracy so far
Three UFC fights against three — experience is even

Final Assessment

In roughly 60 of 100 readings, Baisangur Susurkaev uses the reach, builds a volume fight, and wins by KO/TKO (24%) or submission (22%), with a decision (14%) if the finish waits. Santos is the long template. Nolan is the choke template.

In the other 40, Donte Johnson counters the taller man the way he countered McConico and wins by KO/TKO (20%) or a decision (12%). The submission share is 8%.

Susurkaev 60 / Johnson 40, conviction 5 out of 10. The bigger man is the lean. The faster win over the same opponent is why 40 is still the right size for the underdog.

Back to UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit Fight Card