Baisangur Susurkaev vs Donte Johnson – UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit Fight Analytics & Prediction

PRELIM · MIDDLEWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit

Baisangur Susurkaev

“Hunter”

12W0L

Long Volume Finisher

Donte Johnson

“Lock Jaw”

9W0L

Southpaw Counter

Unbeaten vs unbeaten — same McConico, six inches apart

MiddleweightMadison Square Garden, New York CityNovember 14, 202630ft Octagon

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Six inches and 5.74 SLpM against a southpaw who finished the same McConico two rounds earlier — size vs defensive striking.

Paths that change the fight

Baisangur SusurkaevUse the 79-inch reach and the 5.74 SLpM, make Johnson cover six inches of height, and look for the choke that ended Santos and Nolan. The McConico knockout took until round three. Do not assume a first-round finish. The log does not have one on the roster.
Donte JohnsonSouthpaw counter, stay at the end of his own 74 inches, and do not get stuck under a man who out-landed Santos 107-78. The Brundage split decision is the path if the knockout is not there. The Dumas guillotine is the finish if a neck appears. His defensive striking is the real edge. His size is not.

What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 5/10

He knocked out the same McConico in round one
2.11 SApM and 61% defence are the best defensive striking numbers in the fight

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Baisangur Susurkaev

Insufficient price data

Model win probability: 60%
Fair decimal odds: 1.67

Reference quote—

Donte Johnson

Insufficient price data

Model win probability: 40%
Fair decimal odds: 2.50

Reference quote—

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Sources and data limitations

Rate lines include Contender Series. McConico is a shared opponent, not a transitive result. Per-round tables omitted. Editorial estimates only.

Model methodology

Read the evidence Inspect prices and assumptions

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Three-round middleweight preliminary in the 30-foot Madison Square Garden Octagon. Baisangur "Hunter" Susurkaev is 12-0. An older listing uses the nickname The Real Hunter. The card says Hunter. Fight-night age 25, orthodox, 6'2" with a 79" reach. Rate line, which includes Contender Series: 5.74 SLpM, 54% accuracy, 58% striking defence, 4.45 SApM, 2.09 TD/15 at 26%, 100% takedown defence and 0.8 Sub/15. Three UFC roster wins: a rear-naked choke of Djorden Santos, a knockout of Eric McConico, and a rear-naked choke of Eric Nolan. Donte "Lock Jaw" Johnson is 9-0, fight-night age 27, southpaw, 5'8" with a 74" reach. Rate line, which includes Contender Series: 3.36 SLpM, 46% accuracy, 61% striking defence, 2.11 SApM, 1.87 TD/15 at 100%, 76% takedown defence and 0.6 Sub/15. He also stopped Eric McConico, faster, in August 2026. No BetOnline price was on the September 22, 2026 board. We take Susurkaev 60% / Johnson 40% at conviction 5 / 10.

Baisangur Susurkaev

Attribute

Donte Johnson

25Jan 8, 2001 vs Jan 25, 1999

Age

6'2"+6" Susurkaev

Height

5'8"

79"+5" Susurkaev

Reach

74"

N/A

Leg Reach

N/A

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

#38 MW

Card Rank

#41 MW

Announced SOS

UFC Sample

Volume to late finish

Fighting Style

Southpaw counter, defensive striking

Susurkaev is +6" in height and +5" in reach. Johnson is the southpaw and two years older. Both are unbeaten. Both beat Eric McConico. Susurkaev needed a punch at 1:38 of round three. Johnson needed a punch at 1:38 of round one. Shared name, not a transitive result. Medium UFC sample — three roster fights each.

Venue Factor
Thirty feet gives the 79-inch reach a lane. It also gives a southpaw room to counter. Johnson's defensive numbers (2.11 absorbed, 61% defence) are the case for using that space. Susurkaev's size is the case for not letting him.

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Baisangur Susurkaev

Pro Record

12-0-0

UFC Record

3-0 — Santos RNC, McConico KO, Nolan RNC

Streak

Undefeated; three straight UFC finishes

Finish Rate

All three UFC wins finished — two chokes, one late KO

Avg Fight Time

Roster finishes: R3 4:12, R3 1:38, R2 2:01 — not a 90-second MW

Chin · Absorbs 4.45; competitive volume fights before finishesSOS · Announced 7Long Volume Finisher

Susurkaev's pattern is a long fight he is winning on volume and then finishes. Two of three roster wins needed the championship round of a three-round bout.

Donte Johnson

Pro Record

9-0-0

UFC Record

3-0 — McConico KO, Brundage SD, Dumas guillotine

Streak

Undefeated; faster McConico finish than Susurkaev

Finish Rate

Two UFC finishes and one split decision

Avg Fight Time

McConico R1 1:38; Dumas R2 1:25; Brundage went 15:00

Chin · 2.11 SApM, 61% defence — best defensive striking in the fightSOS · Announced 9Southpaw Counter Finisher

Johnson finished the common opponent a full two rounds earlier. Defensive rates keep him live. Size is not his edge.

Baisangur Susurkaev

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Knockdown Exchange

KD dealt vs absorbed. A dash means that figure was not published.

Donte Johnson

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Baisangur Susurkaevsignature weapons

Reach + Volume79" reach, 5.74 SLpM at 54% — Santos 107-78

×3

Rear-Naked ChokeSantos R3 4:12 and Nolan R2 2:01

×2

Donte Johnsonsignature weapons

Defensive Striking2.11 SApM, 61% defence — best defensive numbers in the fight

×0

Early Power / GuillotineMcConico R1 1:38; Dumas guillotine R2 1:25

×2

Baisangur Susurkaev

Djorden Santos

Rear-naked choke

Opponent context: prospect

RR3 (4:12)

May 9, 2026 · UFC

Eric McConico

KO/TKO — punch

Opponent context: prospect

RR3 (1:38)

Nov 15, 2025 · UFC

Eric Nolan

Rear-naked choke

Opponent context: prospect

RR2 (2:01)

Aug 16, 2025 · UFC

Murtaza Talha

KO/TKO — kick

Opponent context: prospect

RR1 (3:04)

Aug 12, 2025 · DWCS

Pattern

Both are 4-0 on the page and 3-0 on the roster. Susurkaev's last fight went to the last minute of round three and still ended in a choke after he out-landed Santos 107-78.

Donte Johnson

Eric McConico

KO/TKO — punch

Opponent context: prospect

RR1 (1:38)

Aug 15, 2026 · UFC

Cody Brundage

Split decision

Opponent context: prospect

RR3

Mar 7, 2026 · UFC

Sedriques Dumas

Guillotine

Opponent context: prospect

RR2 (1:25)

Nov 1, 2025 · UFC

Darion Abbey

KO/TKO — punches

Opponent context: prospect

RR1 (1:04)

Aug 26, 2025 · DWCS

Pattern

Johnson's last fight was the fastest. Brundage was a split decision in which he was taken down twice and still won. Pattern is mixed: early KO, messy decision, guillotine.

Baisangur Susurkaev

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Donte Johnson

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Critical Insight
Susurkaev lands more and absorbs more. Johnson is the cleaner defensive fighter. McConico clocks keep the split from getting wider than 60-40.

Common Opponents

Opponent	Baisangur	Donte
Eric McConico	WKO/TKO punch R3 1:38 — Nov 15, 2025	WKO/TKO punch R1 1:38 — Aug 15, 2026
Same opponent, different years, different rounds — not transitive. Johnson was faster.

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and sample flags before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

Output · Acc · Def

Baisangur

Donte

5.74 / 54% against 3.36 / 46%. Johnson gives up less: 2.11 SApM, 61% defence

Grappling

TD · TDD · Sub

Baisangur

Donte

Susurkaev two roster chokes and 2.09 TD/15 at only 26%. Johnson a guillotine and 100% TD acc on a short line

Form

Size

Height · Reach

Baisangur

Donte

+6" height, +5" reach

Overall

Editorial blend

Baisangur

Donte

Size and volume, with the defensive numbers keeping Johnson live

Metric	Baisangur	Donte
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	5.74	3.36
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	4.45	2.11
Reach	79"	74"
Height	6'2"	5'8"
UFC Fights	3	3

Archetype Base Rate

Bigger Volume Finisher 60%40% Defensive Southpaw

Editorial — size vs defence · Lean follows the bigger man; faster McConico clock keeps Johnson at 40%.

Baisangur SusurkaevDonte Johnson

Middleweight

Stat	Baisangur	Baisangur rank	Div avg	Donte rank	Donte
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	5.74	—	—	—	3.36
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	54%	—	—	—	46%
Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit.	58%	—	—	—	61%
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	4.45	—	—	—	2.11
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	2.09	—	—	—	1.87
TD Acc	26%	—	—	—	100%
TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed.	100%	—	—	—	76%
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	0.8	—	—	—	0.6
Reach	79"	—	—	—	74"
UFC fights	3	—	—	—	3
Card rank	#38	—	—	—	#41

Statistical Verdict
Susurkaev lands more and absorbs more. Johnson is the cleaner defensive fighter on a four-fight line and the one who did not need fifteen minutes to beat McConico. Takedown accuracy favors Johnson on a tiny sample. The five-inch reach is not a tiny sample. It is a measurement.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

Round-by-round significant-strike figures are unavailable for this comparison. Missing observations are not zero strikes.

Control Time per Round (sec)

Round-by-round control-time figures are unavailable for this comparison. Missing observations are not zero seconds of control.

Baisangur Susurkaev

Per-round strike tables omitted.
Roster finishes: R3 4:12, R3 1:38, R2 2:01 — no first-round UFC win.
DWCS kick was 3:04 R1.

Donte Johnson

Per-round strike tables omitted.
Roster finishes: R1 1:38 and R2 1:25, plus a 15-minute split decision.
He can end it early and he can go the distance.

Critical Insight
Susurkaev builds long. Johnson can end it early. Using the faster McConico clock as the whole pick would ignore the six inches.

Strike targeting (available rounds)

Strike-target figures are unavailable for this comparison.

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage. Unavailable strike-target figures are omitted rather than shown as 0%.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

Baisangur · N/ADonte · N/A

The distribution of strikes by range is unavailable for this comparison.

Approximate share of significant strikes by range in available rounds, weighted by strike volume. Incomplete splits are excluded. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much

Open SpaceBaisangur owns it

+5" reach — also where Johnson's defence lives

Pocket / ExchangesDonte owns it

Southpaw counter — McConico path

ClinchBaisangur owns it

2.09 TD/15 at low accuracy vs short-sample 100%

GroundBaisangur owns it

Two roster chokes vs one guillotine

The Deep Read

Johnson finished the common opponent a full two rounds earlier. Susurkaev is still the bigger man, the higher-volume striker, and the one with two submission wins on the roster log. The McConico clocks keep the split from getting wider than 60-40.

Susurkaev's pattern is a long fight that he is winning on volume and then finishes. Johnson's is more mixed: early knockout, messy split decision, guillotine. The defensive rate is the through-line.

Susurkaev 60 / Johnson 40, conviction 5. The bigger man is the lean. The faster win over the same opponent is why 40 is still the right size for the underdog.

Path to Victory

Baisangur Susurkaev

Use the 79-inch reach and the 5.74 SLpM, make Johnson cover six inches of height, and look for the choke that ended Santos and Nolan. The McConico knockout took until round three. Do not assume a first-round finish. The log does not have one on the roster.

Why they win

+6" height, +5" reach

The physical fact the rates do not show.

5.74 SLpM at 54%

Against 3.36 at 46%.

Two roster chokes

Plus a knockout, all in a 12-0 record.

Younger

25 against 27.

The gameplan

1
Jab from longer reach
Mix the shot even at 26% accuracy, hunt the back.
2
Do not blitz
Johnson's absorption number is low for a reason.
3
Build the Santos fight
Late finish is the log.

Path to Victory

Donte Johnson

Southpaw counter, stay at the end of his own 74 inches, and do not get stuck under a man who out-landed Santos 107-78. The Brundage split decision is the path if the knockout is not there. The Dumas guillotine is the finish if a neck appears. His defensive striking is the real edge. His size is not.

Why they win

2.11 SApM, 61% defence

Best defensive striking numbers in the fight.

Faster McConico

R1 1:38 against Susurkaev's R3 1:38.

Guillotine

Dumas R2 1:25.

Southpaw

100% TDAcc on the short line.

The gameplan

1
Counter the first step
Low kicks to a taller base.
2
Guillotine only if naked
Do not invent wrestling into 100% TDD.
3
Avoid volume war
Trading with 5.74 SLpM is the Santos fight.

Danger Zone

How Baisangur Susurkaev loses

McConico first-round version travels up six inches — Johnson by KO.
Blitzing into a southpaw counter.
Trading volume into 2.11 SApM defence.

Danger Zone

How Donte Johnson loses

Santos fight — out-landed for fifteen minutes then choked.
Getting stuck under the longer man.
Split-decision mess against size and volume.

Not transitive

Shared McConico

Same opponent, different years, different rounds. Johnson R1 1:38; Susurkaev R3 1:38. Faster clock does not erase six inches.

rounds earlier

+6" / +5"

Size Is Measurement

Not a sample edge — three UFC fights each. The reach is a measurement.

79"

Susurkaev reach

Johnson's case

Defensive Edge

2.11 SApM and 61% defence are the best defensive striking numbers in the fight.

2.11

SApM Johnson

Finish clocks

Late vs Early

Susurkaev has not had a first-round UFC win. Johnson ended McConico in round one.

The Five-Round Clock

Baisangur Susurkaev danger windowDonte Johnson danger windowNeutral / contested

R1 · 0:00–5:00Johnson's early power

McConico and Abbey templates. Susurkaev has no R1 UFC finish.

Critical Insight
Three rounds. Johnson equity is front-loaded. Susurkaev equity builds.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things

Susurkaev 60% / Johnson 40%, conviction 5/10 — bigger man lean; faster McConico keeps the underdog live.

Fair −150 / +150. No BetOnline quote. Inside distance combined KO+sub for Susurkaev is 46%.

Best lean: Susurkaev inside the distance. Johnson by KO/TKO at 20% is the southpaw upset.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Susurkaev KO/TKO — 24%Susurkaev Decision — 14%Susurkaev Submission — 22%Johnson KO/TKO — 20%Johnson Decision — 12%Johnson Submission — 8%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. Baisangur Susurkaev gold · Donte Johnson orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Size

+6" height and +5" reach.

Volume

5.74 SLpM at 54% against 3.36 at 46%.

McConico clocks

Johnson faster — keeps him at 40%.

Defence

Johnson 2.11 SApM, 61% defence.

Equal sample

Three UFC fights each — size is not a sample edge.

Fight Scripts

of simulations

Santos Volume + Choke

Susurkaev by submission — Santos/Nolan path.

Scripted outcomes for Baisangur Susurkaev vs Donte Johnson — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Baisangur Susurkaev win probability

24%

14%

22%

KO/TKODECSUB

Twenty-four points — McConico later than Johnson's.
Fourteen points — if he wins minutes and the choke does not land.
Twenty-two points — Santos and Nolan.

Donte Johnson win probability

20%

12%

KO/TKODECSUB

Twenty points — fast McConico path and the main upset.
Twelve points — Brundage path.
Eight points — Dumas guillotine without pretending it is the identity.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round

Donte

Baisangur

29-28 Susurkaev

Volume after early counters

Inside Susurkaev's 14% decision share

29-28 Johnson

Defence and counters travel

Inside Johnson's 12% decision share

30-27 Susurkaev

Reach control all three

Live if size never needs a finish

Model and price

Baisangur Susurkaev

Insufficient price data

Model win probability: 60%
Fair decimal odds: 1.67

Reference quote—

Estimated EV: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —

Donte Johnson

Insufficient price data

Model win probability: 40%
Fair decimal odds: 2.50

Reference quote—

Estimated EV: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Baisangur Susurkaev

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 1.67 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Donte Johnson

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 2.50 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Full prop table (0)Expand for odds, model %, implied % and analyst verdict per prop

No prop prices recorded in this analysis.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

Best lean: Susurkaev inside the distance (KO 24% + sub 22% = 46%). Johnson by KO/TKO at 20% (fair +400) is the southpaw upset. Distance 26% (fair +285); inside 74% (fair −285).

Conviction

5/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

The bigger man is the lean. The faster win over the same opponent is why 40 is still the right size for the underdog. Conviction 5/10. Lean: Baisangur Susurkaev.

What backs the lean

+6" height and +5" reach
5.74 SLpM at 54% against 3.36 at 46%
Two roster chokes, plus a knockout, all in a 12-0 record
Johnson had to go a split decision with Cody Brundage

What limits it

He knocked out the same McConico in round one
2.11 SApM and 61% defence are the best defensive striking numbers in the fight
Southpaw, unbeaten, and the takedown accuracy cell is 100% on the short line
Three UFC fights against three. The size edge is not a sample edge

Final Assessment

In roughly 60 of 100 readings, Baisangur Susurkaev uses the reach, builds a volume fight, and wins by KO/TKO (24%) or submission (22%), with a decision (14%) if the finish waits. Santos is the long template. Nolan is the choke template.

In the other 40, Donte Johnson counters the taller man the way he countered McConico and wins by KO/TKO (20%) or a decision (12%). The submission share is 8%.

Susurkaev 60 / Johnson 40, conviction 5 out of 10. The bigger man is the lean. The faster win over the same opponent is why 40 is still the right size for the underdog.

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