Uros Medic vs Kevin Holland – UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit Fight Analytics & Prediction

MAIN CARD · WELTERWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit

Uros Medic

“The Doctor”

14W3L

Southpaw Power

Kevin Holland

“Trail Blazer”

29W15L

Length + Neck Hunting

Four first-round knockouts against ten inches of reach in a 30-foot cage

WelterweightMadison Square Garden, New York CityNovember 14, 202630ft Octagon

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Medic's four straight first-round knockouts against Holland's +10" reach in a 30-foot cage. Close once early, or live at the end of an 81-inch jab for fifteen minutes.

Paths that change the fight

Uros MedicClose the ten inches once, early, the way the Neal and Salikhov fights ended. Do not spend nine minutes at the end of an 81-inch reach trying to win a kickboxing decision at a distance he does not own. Southpaw entries have to be commits, not feels.
Kevin HollandUse the 30-foot cage. Make Medic walk into the 81-inch jab and the counters. If the pocket gets tied, the anaconda and the D'Arce are on the log. A decision is a win here — he just took one against Randy Brown.

What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 5/10

Ten inches of reach in a 30-foot cage
0.6 submissions per 15 minutes against a 0.0 rate

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Uros Medic

Insufficient price data

Model win probability: 57%
Fair decimal odds: 1.75

Reference quote—

Kevin Holland

Insufficient price data

Model win probability: 43%
Fair decimal odds: 2.33

Reference quote—

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Sources and data limitations

Rate lines and fight logs were compiled September 22, 2026. Per-round strike tables omitted. Projections, composite scores and analyst conviction are editorial estimates, not observed outcomes. Unavailable measurements are not zeros.

Model methodology

Read the evidence Inspect prices and assumptions

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Three-round welterweight bout on the main card in the 30-foot Madison Square Garden Octagon. Uros "The Doctor" Medic is 14-3, card rank #12, fight-night age 33, southpaw, 6'1" with a 71" reach. Rate line after the Rodriguez knockout: 5.77 SLpM, 60% accuracy, 56% striking defence, 3.40 SApM, 0.34 TD/15 at 50%, 55% takedown defence and 0.0 Sub/15. His last four wins are all round-one knockouts, the latest a 30-second finish of Daniel Rodriguez on August 1, 2026. Kevin "Trail Blazer" Holland is 29-15 (1 NC), card rank #13, fight-night age 34, orthodox, 6'3" with an 81" reach. Rate line: 4.24 SLpM, 49% accuracy, 50% striking defence, 3.21 SApM, 0.79 TD/15 at 36%, 57% takedown defence and 0.6 Sub/15. He decisioned Randy Brown on April 11, 2026 after decision losses to Mike Malott and Daniel Rodriguez. No BetOnline price was on the September 22, 2026 board. We take Medic 57% / Holland 43% at conviction 5 / 10.

Uros Medic

Attribute

Kevin Holland

33Apr 25, 1993 vs Nov 5, 1992

Age

6'1"

Height

+2" Holland6'3"

71"

Reach

+10" Holland81"

N/A

Leg Reach

N/A

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

#12 WW

Card Rank

#13 WW

Announced SOS

UFC Sample

Southpaw power, early KO

Fighting Style

Length, decision or choke

Holland is +2" in height and +10" in reach. The age gap is one year. Medic is southpaw; Holland is orthodox. Leg reach was not in the compiled sample and is omitted. Medic has 11 UFC roster bouts in the sample (Contender Series win over Mikey Gonzalez excluded). Holland has 29, including the Daukaus no-contest inside that count. The pair is a large reliability sample.

Venue Factor
Madison Square Garden is 30 feet. That is Holland's geometry. A 71-inch southpaw has to cover ten inches before his power, which has been arriving in the first minute, can land. A small cage would have done more of that work for him.

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Uros Medic

Pro Record

14-3-0

UFC Record

Nine UFC-page wins and three losses (Contender Series KO of Gonzalez on the page; sample file 11 bouts)

Streak

Four straight round-one knockouts — Rodriguez, Neal, Salikhov, Urbina

Finish Rate

Knockouts dominate the recent log; eight UFC-card KOs among page wins

Avg Fight Time

Short nights — last four wins all inside 1:19 of round one

Chin · Hittable early — Soriano KO at 0:31 of round one; two submission losses (Orolbai, Turner)SOS · Announced 33Southpaw Power Finisher

Medic's compiled log lists nine wins and three losses after the upcoming Holland bout is set aside. Eight of those wins are knockouts on UFC cards and one is the Contender Series knockout of Gonzalez. The three losses are a 31-second knockout by Punahele Soriano, a neck crank by Myktybek Orolbai, and a rear-naked choke by Jalin Turner. The five pro wins that make the record 14-3 and are not on this page are not given a method here. The 2025–26 version ends fights in the first minute.

Kevin Holland

Pro Record

29-15-0 (1 NC)

UFC Record

29 sample-file bouts including the Daukaus no-contest

Streak

Decision win over Randy Brown after two straight decision losses

Finish Rate

Recent mix of decisions plus anaconda of Luque; older submission log includes armbar and D'Arce

Avg Fight Time

Recent nights mostly see the final horn — Brown, Malott, Rodriguez, Nelson went three

Chin · Submitted by de Ridder R1; durable enough to go fifteen against Rodriguez and lose the cardsSOS · Announced 47Long-Range Decision Maker / Occasional Choke

Holland's recent log mixes decisions and submissions. The header record is 29-15-0 (1 NC), which matches the announced 29-15 once the no-contest is kept out of the win-loss line. He decisioned Randy Brown, lost decisions to Malott and Rodriguez, choked Luque with an anaconda, and decisioned Gunnar Nelson. The submission rate of 0.6 per 15 minutes is real; the striking line sits a step behind Medic.

Uros Medic

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Knockdown Exchange

KD dealt vs absorbed. A dash means that figure was not published.

Kevin Holland

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Uros Medicsignature weapons

Southpaw Left HandRodriguez, Neal, Salikhov, Urbina — all R1 punches inside 1:19

×4

First-Minute PowerCurrent finishing identity — the measuring minute is where an 81-inch orthodox lives

×4

Kevin Hollandsignature weapons

81-Inch ReachPhysical case in a 30-foot cage — keep Medic walking into the jab

×0

Anaconda / D'ArceLuque anaconda R2; armbar of Oleksiejczuk; D'Arce of Chiesa — 0.6 Sub/15

×3

Uros Medic

Daniel Rodriguez

KO/TKO — punches

Opponent context: veteran

RR1 (0:30)

Aug 1, 2026

Geoff Neal

KO/TKO — punch

Opponent context: veteran

RR1 (1:19)

Feb 21, 2026

Muslim Salikhov

KO/TKO — punch

Opponent context: veteran

RR1 (1:03)

Nov 8, 2025

Gilbert Urbina

KO/TKO — punch

Opponent context: prospect

RR1 (1:03)

Aug 9, 2025

Punahele Soriano

KO/TKO — punch

Opponent context: veteran

RR1 (0:31)

Jan 11, 2025

Pattern

Medic's five-fight window has one result that lasted past the first round, and that result is the loss, also in round one. Four straight round-one knockouts, the last in 30 seconds.

Kevin Holland

Randy Brown

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: veteran

RR3

Apr 11, 2026

Mike Malott

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: veteran

RR3

Oct 18, 2025

Daniel Rodriguez

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: veteran

RR3

Jul 19, 2025

Vicente Luque

Submission — Anaconda choke

Opponent context: elite

RR2 (1:03)

Jun 7, 2025

Gunnar Nelson

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: veteran

RR3

Mar 22, 2025

Pattern

Holland's five-fight window has four decisions and one submission. They are winning and losing different kinds of fights. Rodriguez sits in both columns: a 30-second knockout for Medic, a decision loss for Holland.

Uros Medic

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Kevin Holland

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Critical Insight
Medic's recent wins are first-round knockouts; Holland's recent wins are decisions plus the Luque anaconda. If this is kickboxing at range, Holland's reach is the tool and Medic's clocks say the favorite still has to land. If it becomes a clinch, Holland's submission log is the danger and Medic's 0.0 rate is the leak.

Common Opponents

Opponent	Uros	Kevin
Daniel Rodriguez	W· KO/TKO R1 0:30 (Aug 1, 2026)	L· UD3 (Jul 19, 2025)
Not a transitive lock — different nights — but the cleanest recent shared name on the card, and it points at Medic's power rather than Holland's durability

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and sample flags before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

SLpM · Acc · Def · SApM

Uros

Kevin

Medic 5.77 / 60% / 56% def / 3.40 absorbed, four straight round-one knockouts. Holland 4.24 / 49% / 50% def / 3.21 absorbed

Grappling

TD/15 · Sub/15 · TDD

Uros

Kevin

Holland 0.6 Sub/15 and a live choke log. Medic 0.34 TD/15 and 0.0 Sub/15, with two submission losses on the page

Length

Reach · Height · Cage

Uros

Kevin

+10" reach, +2" height, 30-foot cage

Form

Overall

Editorial blend

Uros

Kevin

Striking and form against length and the choke. The win split stays with Medic because the finishes are current

Metric	Uros	Kevin
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	5.77	4.24
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	60%	49%
Reach	71"	81"
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	0.0	0.6
UFC Sample	11	29

Archetype Base Rate

Southpaw Power Finisher 57%43% Long-Range Decision / Choke

Editorial prior from current finishing streak vs length · Not an archetype table lookup — the lean follows four straight R1 knockouts discounted by ten inches of reach in a 30-foot cage.

Uros MedicKevin Holland

Welterweight

Stat	Uros	Uros rank	Div avg	Kevin rank	Kevin
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	5.77	—	—	—	4.24
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	60%	—	—	—	49%
Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit.	56%	—	—	—	50%
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	3.40	—	—	—	3.21
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	0.34	—	—	—	0.79
TD Acc	50%	—	—	—	36%
TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed.	55%	—	—	—	57%
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	0.0	—	—	—	0.6
Reach	71"	—	—	—	81"
Prior UFC bouts	11	—	—	—	29
Card rank	#12	—	—	—	#13

Statistical Verdict
On the striking line Medic is ahead in output, accuracy and defence, and he absorbs about the same. Holland is ahead in reach by ten inches and in submissions. Takedown defence is a wash, and neither man is a high-volume wrestler. The fight is whether 60% power arrives before the long man ties up or keeps the lane.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

Round-by-round significant-strike figures are unavailable for this comparison. Missing observations are not zero strikes.

Control Time per Round (sec)

Round-by-round control-time figures are unavailable for this comparison. Missing observations are not zero seconds of control.

Uros Medic

Per-round strike tables were not in the compiled sample and are omitted.
Medic's last four wins all ended inside 1:19 of round one. The Soriano loss was 0:31 of round one.
His UFC nights are short in both directions. The Semelsberger spinning-back-elbow win further down the log went to round three — that version is not the 2025–26 version.

Kevin Holland

Per-round strike tables were not in the compiled sample and are omitted.
Holland's recent nights mostly see the final horn. Brown, Malott, Rodriguez and Nelson went three rounds.
Luque ended in round two on a choke. De Ridder ended in round one on a choke. He can win late on the cards or lose on the cards, and he can still find a neck.

Critical Insight
Medic's pattern is a first-round knockout or a first-round loss. There is almost no middle. Holland's pattern in the last year is a three-round striking fight that he sometimes wins and sometimes loses, with a submission still available when the opponent gives up a neck.

Strike targeting (available rounds)

Strike-target figures are unavailable for this comparison.

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage. Unavailable strike-target figures are omitted rather than shown as 0%.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

Uros · N/AKevin · N/A

The distribution of strikes by range is unavailable for this comparison.

Approximate share of significant strikes by range in available rounds, weighted by strike volume. Incomplete splits are excluded. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much

Open SpaceKevin owns it

+10" reach in a 30-foot cage — Holland's home until Medic closes

Pocket / ExchangesUros owns it

5.77 at 60% and four R1 KOs — Medic's finishing domain

ClinchKevin owns it

0.6 Sub/15 vs 0.0 — anaconda and D'Arce on the log

GroundKevin owns it

Medic's two submission losses; Holland hunts necks

The Deep Read

Medic is the cleaner puncher on a finishing streak. Holland is the longer man in the bigger cage, with a submission rate Medic does not have. The Rodriguez fights are a reference, not a proof: Medic knocked Rodriguez out in 30 seconds, and Holland lost a decision to Rodriguez ten months earlier.

If this is a kickboxing fight at range, Holland's reach is the favorite's tool and Medic's recent clocks say the favorite still has to land. If it becomes a clinch, Holland's submission log is the danger and Medic's 0.0 rate is the leak. The 30-foot cage votes for range.

The 30-foot cage is the reason this is 57/43 and not a wider number. In the APEX, the streak would carry more of the file. Here the puncher on the streak is the lean, and the long man in the big cage is why it is not wider.

Path to Victory

Uros Medic

Close the ten inches once, early, the way the Neal and Salikhov fights ended. Do not spend nine minutes at the end of an 81-inch reach trying to win a kickboxing decision at a distance he does not own. Southpaw entries have to be commits, not feels.

Why they win

5.77 SLpM at 60%

Lands a lot and lands clean — the striking case on the rate line.

56% striking defence

Better than Holland's 50% and close to Holland's 3.21 absorbed at 3.40 SApM.

Four straight R1 knockouts

Rodriguez 0:30, Neal 1:19, Salikhov 1:03, Urbina 1:03 — the current identity.

Rodriguez result

He already knocked out a man Holland lost a decision to.

The gameplan

1
Do not measure
The measuring minute is where an 81-inch orthodox lives. Angle off the lead hand and throw the left.
2
Commit or exit
If the first combination misses, exit. Do not hang in the clinch.
3
Southpaw entries as commits
Feels get taxed by the jab; commits recreate Neal and Salikhov.

Path to Victory

Kevin Holland

Use the 30-foot cage. Make Medic walk into the 81-inch jab and the counters. If the pocket gets tied, the anaconda and the D'Arce are on the log. A decision is a win here — he just took one against Randy Brown.

Why they win

+10" reach

Everything else on the striking line is a step behind Medic; the reach is the physical case.

+2" height in a 30-foot cage

Geometry that fits the long guard and lateral movement.

0.6 Sub/15

Anaconda of Luque, armbar of Oleksiejczuk, D'Arce of Chiesa — live if Medic clinches without a plan.

29 UFC bouts

Sample depth against Medic's 11.

The gameplan

1
Long guard, lateral movement
Punish the entry. Keep the 30-foot lane.
2
Treat naked shots as gifts
Medic at 0.34 TD/15 and 0.0 Sub/15 — a naked shot is a choke opportunity.
3
A decision is enough
Brown is the template. Do not invent a pocket war.

Danger Zone

How Uros Medic loses

Measuring minute at the end of 81 inches — Holland wins the kickboxing decision.
Clinch without an exit — Turner and Orolbai already finished him that way.
Soriano replication — another first-round knockout the wrong way.

Danger Zone

How Kevin Holland loses

Clean southpaw entry in the first minute — the Rodriguez fight again.
Standing pocket war where 60% accuracy arrives before the jab matters.
Fifteen minutes at range where Medic somehow closes and the cards follow the power.

Medic's recent pattern

First-Round Binary

Medic's pattern is a first-round knockout or a first-round loss. There is almost no middle. Four wins inside 1:19; Soriano loss at 0:31.

straight R1 KO wins

Why conviction stops at 5

Ten Inches in Thirty Feet

Holland's 81-inch reach in a 30-foot Garden cage is the geometry that keeps him at 43%. The streak does not erase the walk.

+10"

reach edge for Holland

Daniel Rodriguez

Shared Opponent, Different Clocks

Medic needed 30 seconds. Holland went fifteen minutes and lost. Not a transitive lock — still the cleanest recent comparison on the card.

Medic's 0.0 vs Holland's 0.6

Submission Leak

Turner and Orolbai already finished Medic by submission. Holland's anaconda of Luque is the clinch template.

0.6

Holland Sub/15

The Five-Round Clock

Uros Medic danger windowKevin Holland danger windowNeutral / contested

R1 · 0:00–5:00Medic's kill window

Four data points say the base case is Medic by KO/TKO in round one. Soriano says the window cuts both ways.

Critical Insight
Three rounds. Medic's equity is front-loaded into the first minute. Holland's equity grows if the fight becomes a measuring contest at the end of 81 inches.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things

Medic's 5.77 SLpM at 60% and four straight R1 knockouts define the lean; Holland's +10" reach in a 30-foot cage defines the ceiling.

Model: Medic 57% / Holland 43%, conviction 5/10 — fair prices −133 / +133. No BetOnline quote on the September 22 board.

Best lean: Medic by KO/TKO at 42%. Holland by decision at 18% is the range plan; Holland by submission at 13% is the clinch plan.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Medic KO/TKO — 42%Medic Decision — 10%Medic Submission — 5%Holland KO/TKO — 12%Holland Decision — 18%Holland Submission — 13%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. Uros Medic gold · Kevin Holland orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Current finishing streak

Four straight R1 knockouts — the largest recent fact on the page.

Ten inches of reach

81" vs 71" in a 30-foot cage keeps Holland live at 43%.

Submission asymmetry

0.6 Sub/15 against 0.0, with Medic's two submission losses already on the page.

Shared Rodriguez tape

Medic 30 seconds; Holland decision loss — reference, not proof.

Sample depth

29 UFC bouts against 11 — experience on the underdog side.

Fight Scripts

of simulations

The Rodriguez Minute

Medic closes once early — left hand, first round — the Neal/Salikhov/Rodriguez template and the largest bucket on the page.

Scripted outcomes for Uros Medic vs Kevin Holland — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Uros Medic win probability

42%

10%

KO/TKODECSUB

Forty-two points — the streak. Rodriguez, Neal, Salikhov and Urbina are the template.
Ten points — the small branch. His current wins are not decisions.
Five points — small because the rate is 0.0.

Kevin Holland win probability

12%

18%

13%

KO/TKODECSUB

Twelve points — smaller knockout share; the Brown path is more decision than finish.
Eighteen points — the Brown fight moved into a longer cage against a shorter man.
Thirteen points — Luque, Oleksiejczuk and Chiesa, plus Medic's two submission losses.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round

Uros

Kevin

29-28 Holland

Medic misses early; Holland banks range minutes

Primary path inside Holland's 18% decision share

29-28 Medic

Damage in R1 carries optics despite later range nights

Inside Medic's 10% decision bucket

30-27 Holland

Full fifteen at the end of 81 inches

Live if Medic never closes

Model and price

Uros Medic

Insufficient price data

Model win probability: 57%
Fair decimal odds: 1.75

Reference quote—

Estimated EV: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —

Kevin Holland

Insufficient price data

Model win probability: 43%
Fair decimal odds: 2.33

Reference quote—

Estimated EV: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Uros Medic

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 1.76 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Kevin Holland

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 2.33 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Full prop table (0)Expand for odds, model %, implied % and analyst verdict per prop

No prop prices recorded in this analysis.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

Best lean: Medic by KO/TKO at 42% (fair +138). Holland by decision at 18% (fair +456) is the range plan. Holland by submission at 13% (fair +669) is the clinch overlay if a price appears. Fight goes the distance 28% (fair +257); does not go the distance 72% (fair −257).

Conviction

5/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

The puncher on the streak is the lean. The long man in the big cage is why it is not wider. Conviction 5/10 — finishes are current, reach is real, and Medic's losses are also fast. Lean: Uros Medic.

What backs the lean

Four straight round-one knockouts, the last one in 30 seconds
5.77 SLpM at 60% accuracy against 4.24 at 49%
56% striking defence against 50%
He already knocked out a man Holland lost a decision to

What limits it

Ten inches of reach in a 30-foot cage
0.6 submissions per 15 minutes against a 0.0 rate
29 UFC bouts against 11
Medic's losses are also fast: a 31-second knockout and two submissions
A four-fight streak can be the style, and it can also be the variance

Final Assessment

In roughly 57 of 100 readings, Uros Medic gets inside the 81-inch reach once and wins by KO/TKO (42%), with a small decision share (10%) and a small submission share (5%). The Rodriguez, Neal and Salikhov fights are the template. The cage is the obstacle.

In the other 43, Kevin Holland keeps the lane or finds the neck and wins by decision (18%), submission (13%) or a smaller knockout share (12%). The Brown decision is the range template. The Luque anaconda is the clinch template.

Medic 57 / Holland 43, conviction 5 out of 10. The puncher on the streak is the lean. The long man in the big cage is why it is not wider.

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