Uros Medic vs Kevin Holland – UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit Fight Analytics & Prediction

MAIN CARD · WELTERWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit

Uros Medic

“The Doctor”

14W3L

Southpaw power

Kevin Holland

“Trail Blazer”

29W15L

Length and neck hunting

Four straight first-round knockouts against ten inches of reach in a 30-foot cage.

WelterweightMadison Square Garden, New York CityNovember 14, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Medic has ended almost every recent fight in the first round, and his losses have come just as fast. Holland is a long, busy range fighter who has spent much of his career being taken down and held, but Medic has shown no interest in wrestling. If Holland survives the opening minutes and keeps the fight at kicking range, the rounds start drifting his way.

Paths that change the fight

Uros MedicClose the ten inches early and commit to the left hand, as in the Neal and Salikhov fights. He does not need to out-point Holland over fifteen minutes; he needs one clean exchange in the first round.
Kevin HollandSurvive round one with the long jab and lateral movement, then win the second and third on volume, as he did against Randy Brown. If Medic clinches without a plan, the D'Arce and anaconda are there.

What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 5/10

Ten inches of reach in a 30-foot cage
13 UFC submission attempts for Holland; Medic has been submitted twice

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Uros Medic

Quote age unknown

Model win probability: 57%
Fair odds: -133

Reference quote: -163 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 1.75

Kevin Holland

Quote age unknown

Model win probability: 43%
Fair odds: +133

Reference quote: +139 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 2.33

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Quotes listed with a date but no time are treated as undated.

Sources and data limitations

Career statistics and fight results through September 2026. Composite scores, win probabilities and fair prices (Medic −133, Holland +133) are MMA Analytics model outputs.

Model methodology

Read the evidence Inspect prices and assumptions

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Three-round welterweight bout on the main card in the 30-foot Madison Square Garden Octagon. Uros "The Doctor" Medic (14-3, age 33, ranked #12) has won four straight, all by first-round knockout, most recently a 30-second stoppage of Daniel Rodriguez on August 1, 2026. Eight of his 11 UFC fights have ended in round one, and he has nine UFC knockdowns in 42 minutes of cage time. Kevin "Trail Blazer" Holland (29-15, 1 NC, age 34) has fought 29 times in the UFC; he decisioned Randy Brown on April 11, 2026 after decision losses to Mike Malott and Daniel Rodriguez. He lands 4.18 significant strikes per minute, has 13 UFC submission attempts and has ten inches of reach on Medic. The market for this bout has not opened. Our read: Medic 57%, Holland 43%, conviction 5 out of 10.

Uros Medic

Attribute

Kevin Holland

331-year gap

Age

6'1"

Height

+2" Holland6'3"

71"

Reach

+10" Holland81"

43"+3" Medic

Leg Reach

40"

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

Anchorage Brazilian Jiu Jitsu

Team

Squabble MMA

Mar 6, 2021

Octagon Debut

Aug 4, 2018

UFC bouts

#12 welterweight

Card rank

#13 welterweight

Southpaw power, early finishes

Fighting Style

Length, volume and chokes

Holland is +2" in height and +10" in reach, though Medic has three inches more leg reach. Medic is southpaw and Holland orthodox. Medic has 11 UFC fights and 42 minutes of UFC cage time; Holland has 29 UFC fights and more than 300 minutes, including the Daukaus no-contest.

Venue Factor
Madison Square Garden is 30 feet. That suits Holland, who wants to keep the fight at the end of his jab and move. A 71-inch southpaw has to cover ten inches before his power can land, and the bigger cage gives Holland more room to reset when he does.

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Uros Medic

Pro Record

14-3-0

UFC Record

8-3 in 11 UFC bouts, plus a Contender Series win

Streak

Four straight first-round knockouts — Urbina, Salikhov, Neal and Rodriguez

Finish Rate

100% of wins (14 of 14) — 12 KO/TKO, 2 submissions

Avg Fight Time

3:50

Chin · Knocked down three times in the UFC (Semelsberger, Soriano, Urbina) and knocked out once, by Soriano in 31 seconds.SOS · Veteran oppositionSouthpaw power puncher

Medic went 5-0 in Alaska, knocked out Mikey Gonzalez on the Contender Series and debuted in the UFC at lightweight in 2021. Every one of his 14 pro wins is a stoppage. His UFC career has been all-or-nothing: eight of his 11 fights ended in round one, and his three losses are a first-round choke by Jalin Turner, a neck crank by Myktybek Orolbai after seven takedowns, and a 31-second knockout by Punahele Soriano. At welterweight he is 6-2, with knockouts of Matthew Semelsberger, Tim Means, Gilbert Urbina, Muslim Salikhov, Geoff Neal and Daniel Rodriguez — the last four in a combined 3:55.

Kevin Holland

Pro Record

29-15-0 (1 NC)

UFC Record

16-12 (1 NC) in 29 UFC bouts

Streak

Decisioned Randy Brown in April 2026 after decision losses to Malott and Rodriguez

Finish Rate

79% of wins (23 of 29) — 14 KO/TKO, 9 submissions

Avg Fight Time

10:38

Chin · Knocked down twice in 29 UFC fights, both times by Daniel Rodriguez. His two TKO losses were corner stoppages between rounds (Thompson, Dolidze).SOS · Long UFC résuméLong-range striker and choke hunter

Holland has been one of the busiest fighters in the UFC — 29 fights since 2018, including five wins in 2020 alone. At his best he is a long, active striker with a real submission game: 14 KO/TKO wins, nine submissions, and D'Arce, brabo and anaconda chokes of Tim Means, Michael Chiesa and Vicente Luque. His problem has been fighters who wrestle him. Opponents have landed 49 takedowns on him in the UFC and controlled him for more than 100 minutes; Marvin Vettori alone took him down 11 times. Since 2023 he is 6-6, most recently a decision win over Randy Brown after decision losses to Mike Malott and Daniel Rodriguez.

Uros Medic

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Knockdown Exchange

Knockdowns dealt vs absorbed.

Kevin Holland

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Uros Medicsignature weapons

PunchesRodriguez (0:30), Neal (1:19), Salikhov (1:03), Urbina (1:03), Means (2:09) and Morales in the UFC

×11

Spinning back elbowMatthew Semelsberger, R3 2:36

×1

Triangle chokeBoth before the UFC, in round one

×2

Kevin Hollandsignature weapons

Punches, knees and elbowsBuckley (R3), Ponzinibbio (R3), Souza (R1, from his back) and Oliveira (R2) in the UFC

×14

ChokesD'Arce (Means), brabo (Chiesa), anaconda (Luque) and rear-naked (Phillips) in the UFC

×7

ArmbarMichał Oleksiejczuk, from his back, R1 1:34

×1

Uros Medic

Daniel Rodriguez

KO/TKO — punches

Opponent context: veteran

R1 (0:30)

UFC — Aug 1, 2026

Geoff Neal

KO/TKO — punches

Opponent context: veteran

R1 (1:19)

UFC — Feb 21, 2026

Muslim Salikhov

KO/TKO — punches

Opponent context: veteran

R1 (1:03)

UFC — Nov 8, 2025

Gilbert Urbina

KO/TKO — punch

Opponent context: ufc

R1 (1:03)

UFC — Aug 9, 2025

Punahele Soriano

KO/TKO — punches

Opponent context: veteran

R1 (0:31)

UFC — Jan 11, 2025

Pattern

Four straight first-round knockouts, in 1:03, 1:03, 1:19 and 0:30. The only fight in the window that did not end with a Medic knockout was the Soriano loss, which also ended in round one.

Kevin Holland

Randy Brown

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: veteran

UFC 327 — Apr 11, 2026

Mike Malott

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: ranked

UFC — Oct 18, 2025

Daniel Rodriguez

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: veteran

UFC 318 — Jul 19, 2025

Vicente Luque

Submission — anaconda choke

Opponent context: veteran

R2 (1:03)

UFC 316 — Jun 7, 2025

Gunnar Nelson

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: veteran

UFC — Mar 22, 2025

Pattern

3-2 in the last five: two decisions and an anaconda choke in the wins, two decision losses. Four of the five went the full fifteen minutes.

Uros Medic

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Kevin Holland

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Critical Insight
Every one of Medic's 14 wins is a stoppage — 12 knockouts and two triangle chokes — and 11 came in round one. Holland's 29 wins are spread out: 14 KO/TKO, nine submissions and six decisions, with 13 first-round finishes but also ten in rounds two and three.

Common Opponents

Opponent	Uros	Kevin
Daniel Rodriguez	W· KO/TKO R1 0:30 (Aug 1, 2026)	L· UD3 (Jul 19, 2025) — knocked down twice
Medic needed 30 seconds. Holland out-landed Rodriguez 82-77 over three rounds but was dropped twice and lost the decision.
Tim Means	W· KO/TKO R1 2:09 (Apr 27, 2024)	W· D'Arce choke R2 1:28 (Jun 18, 2022)
Both finished Means: Medic with punches in round one, Holland with a choke in round two.

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and UFC experience before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

SLpM · Acc · Def · SApM

Uros

Kevin

Medic lands 5.31 per minute at 58% with nine knockdowns in 42 minutes. Holland lands 4.18 at 50% and absorbs 3.30 behind 50% defence.

Grappling

TD/15 · Sub/15 · TDD

Uros

Kevin

Holland: 13 UFC submission attempts and nine career submission wins, but opponents have landed 49 of 116 takedowns on him. Medic: two takedown attempts in 11 fights and no submission attempts.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

Uros

Kevin

Average of the two gauges.

Metric	Uros	Kevin
Avg fight time	3:50 (11 UFC bouts)	10:38 (29 UFC bouts)
UFC fights ending in round one	8 of 11	9 of 29
Knockdowns dealt / absorbed	9 / 3	7 / 2
Standing / clinch / ground	64% / 12% / 24%	75% / 13% / 12%
Takedowns conceded	8 of 18	49 of 116

Archetype Base Rate

Southpaw power finisher 57%43% Long-range volume striker

Model read for this matchup · The lean follows Medic's early finishing power, discounted by ten inches of reach in a 30-foot cage.

Uros MedicKevin Holland

Welterweight

Rank bars use the recorded division cohort. Where no rank is shown, the comparison shows the difference from the published division average; the white marker denotes equality. Percentage differences are percentage points (pp). Higher is not always better: fewer strikes absorbed is preferable.

Stat	Uros	Uros comparison	Div avg	Kevin comparison	Kevin
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	5.31	+0.93 vs avg	4.38	-0.20 vs avg	4.18
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	58%	+9.30 pp vs avg	48.7%	+1.30 pp vs avg	50%
Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit.	56%	+2.30 pp vs avg	53.7%	-3.70 pp vs avg	50%
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	3.53	-0.36 vs avg	3.89	-0.59 vs avg	3.30
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	0.36	-1.28 vs avg	1.64	-0.81 vs avg	0.83
TD Acc	50% (1 of 2)	—few UFC fights	—	—	40% (17 of 43)
TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed.	56% (8 of 18 landed)	—	—	—	58% (49 of 116 landed)
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	0.00	-0.47 vs avg	0.47	+0.16 vs avg	0.63
Knockdowns	9 dealt / 3 absorbed	—	—	—	7 dealt / 2 absorbed
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	3:50	—	—	—	10:38

Statistical Verdict
Medic is ahead on output, accuracy and defence, and his nine knockdowns in 42 minutes are an extreme rate for the division. Holland absorbs slightly less per minute and has the submission game, but his striking numbers sit at or below the welterweight average. Neither man wrestles much, and both have been taken down plenty: seven of the eight takedowns landed on Medic came from Orolbai.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

⚠ R3: single-fight sample for Uros Medic

Control Time per Round (sec)

Uros Medic

Round one is where his fights are decided: 13.6 landed at 60% and six knockdowns in 11 first rounds. Eight of his 11 UFC fights ended in round one.
31% of his first-round strikes land on the ground: once an opponent is hurt, he follows them down, as he did against Cruz and Rodriguez.
Only three UFC fights have reached round two and one has reached round three (Semelsberger, finished with a spinning back elbow at 2:36). Opponents land 14.3 per second round on him, his worst rate.

Kevin Holland

His volume is steady — 20.5 landed in round one, 20.9 in round two and 15.1 in round three — and he has out-landed his opponent in 46 of 70 UFC rounds.
Takedowns are his problem: opponents have taken him down 19 times in first rounds and 49 times in all, landing 42% of their attempts.
Both knockdowns he has suffered in the UFC came in round two against Rodriguez. His submission attempts come early — six in first rounds and five in second rounds.

Critical Insight
Medic's fights are decided in the first five minutes: eight of 11 ended there, and his knockdown rate is highest in round one. Holland's output holds steady across three rounds and most of his recent fights have gone the distance. The first round is Medic's; the longer this goes, the more it looks like a Holland fight.

Strike targeting

Uros

68%

22%

10%

Head

68%

Body

22%

Legs

10%

Kevin

54%

19%

27%

Head

54%

Body

19%

Legs

27%

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

UrosKevin

64%Distance75%

12%Clinch13%

24%Ground12%

Share of significant strikes landed at distance, in the clinch and on the ground across each fighter's UFC rounds, weighted by strike volume.

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much

Open SpaceKevin owns it

Ten inches of reach; 75% of Holland's strikes land at distance.

Pocket / ExchangesUros owns it

Nine UFC knockdowns in 42 minutes for Medic; eight of his 11 fights ended in round one.

ClinchKevin owns it

13% of Holland's strikes land in the clinch, where his chokes start; Medic has been submitted twice.

GroundEven

Medic follows hurt opponents down (24% of his strikes on the ground); Holland has 13 UFC submission attempts.

The Deep Read

Medic's recent fights barely last long enough to analyse: four straight first-round knockouts in a combined 3:55. In the UFC he has nine knockdowns in 42 minutes, and 31% of his first-round strikes come on the ground as he follows hurt opponents down. His losses have been just as fast — a 31-second knockout by Soriano and two submissions — so everything about this fight points to the first five minutes.

Holland is the opposite kind of fighter. He is long, busy and steady across three rounds, he has out-landed his opponent in 46 of 70 UFC rounds, and his recent fights mostly go the distance. His weakness has been wrestlers, who have taken him down 49 times, but Medic has attempted two takedowns in 11 UFC fights. The shared opponents point Medic's way: he knocked Daniel Rodriguez out in 30 seconds, while Rodriguez dropped Holland twice and beat him on the cards.

The 30-foot cage and ten inches of reach are why this is 57/43 and not wider. Medic has to cover a lot of distance to land, and Holland has the room to keep resetting. If he gets through round one, the fight moves toward the kind of three-round decision Holland has been winning and losing all his career.

Path to Victory

Uros Medic

Close the ten inches early and commit to the left hand, as in the Neal and Salikhov fights. He does not need to out-point Holland over fifteen minutes; he needs one clean exchange in the first round.

Why they win

Finishing power

Nine UFC knockdowns and eight first-round finishes in 11 UFC fights.

Accuracy and defence

58% accuracy and 56% defence against Holland's 50% and 50%.

Form

Four straight first-round knockouts, the last in 30 seconds.

Common opponents

Knocked out Rodriguez in 30 seconds and Means in 2:09; Rodriguez beat Holland on the cards.

Holland's chin in round two

Rodriguez dropped Holland twice in the second round.

The gameplan

1
Commit to the entry
Feints get taxed by the jab; committed entries produced the Neal and Salikhov finishes.
2
Angle off the jab
Step outside Holland's lead foot and throw the left.
3
Follow the knockdown
31% of his first-round strikes come on the ground after a knockdown.
4
Stay out of the clinch
Holland's chokes start there, and Medic has been submitted twice.

Path to Victory

Kevin Holland

Survive round one with the long jab and lateral movement, then win the second and third on volume, as he did against Randy Brown. If Medic clinches without a plan, the D'Arce and anaconda are there.

Why they win

Reach

+10" reach and +2" height in a 30-foot cage.

Submissions

13 UFC submission attempts and nine career submission wins; Medic has been submitted twice.

Experience

29 UFC fights against 11.

Later rounds

Steady volume over three rounds; Medic has fought four UFC rounds past the first.

Medic's first round cuts both ways

Soriano knocked Medic out in 31 seconds.

The gameplan

1
Jab and move
Use the ten inches of reach and the 30-foot cage.
2
Punish the entry
Counter Medic's first step in rather than waiting in the pocket.
3
Hunt the neck
Any clinch or scramble is a D'Arce or anaconda chance.
4
Bank the late rounds
A decision is enough; the Randy Brown fight is the template.

Danger Zone

How Uros Medic loses

He measures at the end of the jab and Holland wins the rounds on volume.
He clinches without a plan and gets caught in a choke, as Turner and Orolbai did.
He gets caught coming in, as Soriano did in 31 seconds.

Danger Zone

How Kevin Holland loses

Medic lands the left hand in the first minute, as against Rodriguez.
He stands and trades in the pocket, where Medic's power lives.
He gets dropped and followed to the ground.

Medic's UFC record

A first-round fighter

Eight of Medic's 11 UFC fights ended in round one — six wins and two losses. He has fought four UFC rounds past the first.

8 of 11

Medic UFC fights ending in R1

Rodriguez and Means

Two shared opponents

Medic knocked out Rodriguez in 30 seconds and Means in 2:09. Holland lost a decision to Rodriguez, who dropped him twice, and choked Means in round two.

0:30

Medic's knockout of Rodriguez

Takedowns

The long man's weakness goes unused

Opponents have landed 49 takedowns on Holland in the UFC. Medic has attempted two in 11 UFC fights.

Medic UFC takedown attempts

Holland's clinch threat

Submission asymmetry

Holland has 13 UFC submission attempts and nine career submission wins; Medic has been submitted twice, by Turner and Orolbai.

Holland UFC submission attempts

The Five-Round Clock

Uros Medic danger windowKevin Holland danger windowNeutral / contested

R1 · 0:00–5:00Medic's round

Eight of his 11 UFC fights ended in round one, with six knockdowns in 11 first rounds. Soriano's knockout of Medic came in the first too.

Critical Insight
Medic's danger is concentrated in the first round. Holland's chances grow with every minute the fight stays at range.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things

Medic is favoured because his fights are decided early: eight of his 11 UFC fights ended in round one, with nine knockdowns in 42 minutes.

Holland's path is survival and range — ten inches of reach, steady volume over three rounds, and a choke if Medic clinches.

Both men fought Daniel Rodriguez: Medic knocked him out in 30 seconds; Rodriguez dropped Holland twice and beat him on the cards.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Medic KO/TKO — 42%Medic Decision — 10%Medic Submission — 5%Holland KO/TKO — 12%Holland Decision — 18%Holland Submission — 13%

Each square = 1 model percentage point. Uros Medic gold · Kevin Holland orange · color opacity: 100% = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Early power

Nine UFC knockdowns in 42 minutes and four straight first-round knockouts.

Reach

81" against 71" in a 30-foot cage keeps Holland at 43%.

Submission asymmetry

13 UFC submission attempts for Holland; Medic has been submitted twice.

Shared opponents

Medic knocked out Rodriguez and Means; Holland lost to Rodriguez and choked Means.

Experience

29 UFC fights against 11.

Fight Scripts

of simulations

The Rodriguez minute

Medic closes the distance once, early, and lands the left hand — the largest bucket.

Scripted outcomes for Uros Medic vs Kevin Holland — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Uros Medic win probability

42%

10%

KO/TKODECSUB

The streak: four straight first-round knockouts. Largest bucket.
Small branch — none of his 14 wins is a decision.
Small branch — two career triangle chokes, none in the UFC.

Kevin Holland win probability

12%

18%

13%

KO/TKODECSUB

Fourteen career KO/TKO wins; Buckley and Ponzinibbio were late knockouts.
The Randy Brown fight: range, volume and fifteen minutes.
D'Arce, brabo and anaconda chokes, against a man submitted twice in the UFC.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round

Uros

Kevin

29-28 Holland

Medic wins round one; Holland takes the second and third at range

Most likely card inside Holland's 18% decision share

29-28 Medic

Medic's round-one damage plus one more round

Most likely card inside Medic's 10% decision share

Inside R1

Medic's knockout window

Most of Medic's 42% KO/TKO share

Model and price

Uros Medic

Quote age unknown

Model win probability: 57%
Fair odds: -133

Reference quote: -163 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 1.75

Estimated EV: -8.0%
Edge vs no-vig market: -2.7 pp

Kevin Holland

Quote age unknown

Model win probability: 43%
Fair odds: +133

Reference quote: +139 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 2.33

Estimated EV: +2.8%
Edge vs no-vig market: +2.7 pp

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash marks a price without a same-book pair to compare.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Quotes listed with a date but no time are treated as undated.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Uros Medic

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 1.76 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Kevin Holland

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 2.33 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

Medic is worth backing at −133 or better and Holland at +133 or longer. Medic by KO/TKO (42%, fair +138) is the strongest method read. Holland by decision (18%, fair +456) and by submission (13%, fair +669) are his two routes. The fight goes the distance 28% of the time (fair +257); it ends inside the distance 72% (fair −257).

Conviction

5/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

The puncher on the streak is the lean; the long man in the big cage is why it is not wider. Conviction 5 out of 10 — Medic's finishes are current, Holland's reach is real, and Medic's losses have been fast too. Lean: Uros Medic.

What backs the lean

Four straight first-round knockouts, the last in 30 seconds
Nine UFC knockdowns in 42 minutes
58% accuracy and 56% defence against 50% and 50%
He knocked out Rodriguez, who beat Holland and dropped him twice

What limits it

Ten inches of reach in a 30-foot cage
13 UFC submission attempts for Holland; Medic has been submitted twice
29 UFC fights against 11
Medic's losses have been fast too: a 31-second knockout and two submissions

Final Assessment

In roughly 57 of 100 readings, Uros Medic gets inside the 81-inch reach once and wins by KO/TKO (42%), most often in the first round, as in his last four fights. A decision (10%) and a submission (5%) are small branches for a fighter who has never won a decision. The cage is the obstacle; the Rodriguez, Neal and Salikhov fights are the template.

In the other 43, Kevin Holland gets through the first round and turns it into his kind of fight: a range decision (18%), a choke when Medic clinches (13%), or a knockout of his own (12%). The Randy Brown decision is the range template and the Luque anaconda is the clinch template.

Medic 57 / Holland 43, conviction 5 out of 10. Medic is the pick because his power is current and the shared opponents point his way; Holland's reach in a big cage is why it is not wider.

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