Caio Borralho vs Yousri Belgaroui – UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit Fight Analytics & Prediction

MAIN CARD · MIDDLEWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit

Caio Borralho

“The Natural”

18W2L

Control grappler

Yousri Belgaroui

“Baby Face Assassin”

11W3L

6'6" kickboxer

A ranked grappler against a Glory veteran who has won every UFC round he has fought.

MiddleweightMadison Square Garden, New York CityNovember 14, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Belgaroui has out-landed every opponent in every round of his UFC career, yet the wrestlers he faced still took him down and held him for stretches before he finished them late. Borralho's own wrestling has faded from his recent fights, so everything turns on whether he goes back to it early. If this stays a kickboxing match, the bigger man owns it.

Paths that change the fight

Caio BorralhoGo back to the wrestling of his early UFC fights: take Belgaroui down in round one, hold position and make him carry weight, as Bekoev and Abdul-Malik did for stretches. On the feet, stay at a range where his lower-volume, accurate striking can keep rounds close.
Yousri BelgarouiKeep it a kickboxing match, make Borralho pay for every entry with the knee, and keep building the lead on the strike count until the finish comes, as it did in round three against Bekoev and Abdul-Malik.

What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 5/10

Belgaroui has out-landed his opponent in all seven UFC rounds
8.35 landed per minute against 3.30

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Caio Borralho

Quote age unknown

Model win probability: 55%
Fair odds: -122

Reference quote: -160 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 1.82

Yousri Belgaroui

Quote age unknown

Model win probability: 45%
Fair odds: +122

Reference quote: +136 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 2.22

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Quotes listed with a date but no time are treated as undated.

Sources and data limitations

Career statistics and fight results through September 2026. Composite scores, win probabilities and fair prices (Borralho −122, Belgaroui +122) are MMA Analytics model outputs.

Model methodology

Read the evidence Inspect prices and assumptions

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Three-round middleweight bout on the main card in the 30-foot Madison Square Garden Octagon. Caio "The Natural" Borralho (18-2, 1 NC, age 33, ranked #5) is 8-1 in the UFC; he decisioned Reinier de Ridder on March 7, 2026 after a five-round decision loss to Nassourdine Imavov, the only UFC defeat of his career. He has spent 27% of his UFC fight time in control, but has landed one takedown in his last five fights. Yousri Belgaroui (11-3, age 34), a three-time Glory kickboxing title challenger, is 3-0 in the UFC with three stoppages, the latest a first-round TKO of Djorden Santos on September 12, 2026. He is 6'6" with a 79-inch reach, lands 8.35 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 1.93, and has out-landed his opponent in all seven of his UFC rounds. The market for this bout has not opened. Our read: Borralho 55%, Belgaroui 45%, conviction 5 out of 10.

Caio Borralho

Attribute

Yousri Belgaroui

331-year gap

Age

6'1"

Height

+5" Belgaroui6'6"

75"

Reach

+4" Belgaroui79"

42"

Leg Reach

+5" Belgaroui47"

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

Fighting Nerds

Team

Teixeira MMA & Fitness, Bethel, Connecticut

Apr 16, 2022

Octagon Debut

Oct 18, 2025

UFC bouts

#5 middleweight

Card rank

#33 middleweight

Judo / BJJ / Muay Thai

Fighting Style

Kickboxing (27-13 pro record)

Belgaroui is a different size: +5" in height, +4" in reach and +5" in leg reach. Borralho is southpaw and Belgaroui orthodox. Borralho has nine UFC fights, two of them five-round main events; Belgaroui has three UFC fights and 29 minutes of UFC cage time.

Venue Factor
Madison Square Garden is 30 feet and this is a three-round fight. Both help the longer kickboxer, who has more room to keep his distance and less time to be out-grappled. Borralho's best control numbers came in fights where he got the first takedown early.

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Caio Borralho

Pro Record

18-2-0 (1 NC)

UFC Record

8-1 in nine UFC bouts, plus two Contender Series wins

Streak

Decisioned Reinier de Ridder in March 2026 after the Imavov loss ended a 14-fight winning streak

Finish Rate

50% of wins (9 of 18) — 5 KO/TKO, 4 submissions

Avg Fight Time

15:26

Chin · Never knocked down in nine UFC fights; both career losses are decisions.SOS · RankedControl grappler with a patient striking game

Borralho came through the Contender Series in 2021 and won his first seven UFC fights. The early version was a control wrestler: 10:11 of control against Gadzhi Omargadzhiev, 10:09 against Armen Petrosyan, and a rear-naked choke of Michał Oleksiejczuk after three takedowns — nine takedowns in 14 attempts across his first four UFC fights. The later version is a patient kickboxer. He knocked out Paul Craig in round two, out-landed Jared Cannonier 153-83 over five rounds, then lost a five-round decision to Nassourdine Imavov, who out-landed him 81-66 while Borralho landed none of five takedown attempts. In March 2026 he beat Reinier de Ridder over three rounds, landing his one takedown attempt and stopping six of de Ridder's eight.

Yousri Belgaroui

Pro Record

11-3-0

UFC Record

3-0 in three UFC bouts, all by stoppage (plus a Contender Series win and loss)

Streak

Six straight wins; the last four by stoppage

Finish Rate

82% of wins (9 of 11) — 9 KO/TKO, no submissions

Avg Fight Time

9:40

Chin · Never finished in MMA; his three losses are decisions. Opponents land 1.93 per minute on him and have not knocked him down.SOS · RisingKickboxer-turned-finisher

Belgaroui built a 27-13 professional kickboxing record and challenged for the Glory middleweight title three times, losing twice to Israel Adesanya and going 1-2 against Alex Pereira, with whom he now trains. He started MMA with UAE Warriors in 2021, lost a Contender Series decision to Marco Tulio in 2023, and came back a year later to stop Taiga Iwasaki in round three and earn his contract. In the UFC he has barely been touched on the feet: he out-landed Azamat Bekoev 102-24 and Mansur Abdul-Malik 94-16 and stopped both in round three, then stopped Djorden Santos in 4:25 of the first round, 46-16 on significant strikes. The weakness is the takedown. Bekoev took him down four times and Abdul-Malik three, for 5:25 of control between them.

Caio Borralho

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Knockdown Exchange

Knockdowns dealt vs absorbed.

Yousri Belgaroui

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Caio Borralhosignature weapons

PunchesPaul Craig (R2 2:10) in the UFC; four stoppages before it

×5

Rear-naked chokeMichał Oleksiejczuk, R2 2:49, after three takedowns

×2

Guillotine and anacondaBoth before the UFC, in round one

×2

Yousri Belgarouisignature weapons

PunchesSantos (R1 4:25) and Bekoev (R3 0:55) in the UFC

×5

KneesAbdul-Malik (R3 3:39) in the UFC; two knee stoppages before it

×3

Head kickSallah-Eddine Dekhissi, R1, before the UFC

×1

Caio Borralho

Reinier de Ridder

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: elite

UFC 326 — Mar 7, 2026

Nassourdine Imavov

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: elite

UFC — Sep 6, 2025

Jared Cannonier

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: elite

UFC — Aug 24, 2024

Paul Craig

KO/TKO — punches

Opponent context: ranked

R2 (2:10)

UFC 301 — May 4, 2024

Abus Magomedov

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: ranked

UFC — Nov 4, 2023

Pattern

4-1 in the last five. The Imavov decision is his only UFC loss, and four of the five fights went the distance. He has not finished anyone since knocking out Paul Craig in May 2024.

Yousri Belgaroui

Djorden Santos

KO/TKO — punches

Opponent context: ufc

R1 (4:25)

UFC — Sep 12, 2026

Mansur Abdul-Malik

KO/TKO — knee

Opponent context: ufc

R3 (3:39)

UFC — Mar 28, 2026

Azamat Bekoev

KO/TKO — punches

Opponent context: ufc

R3 (0:55)

UFC — Oct 18, 2025

Taiga Iwasaki

KO/TKO — punches

Opponent context: ufc adjacent

R3 (2:34)

Contender Series — Sep 10, 2024

Ahmed Sami

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: ufc adjacent

Levels Fight League — Feb 18, 2024

Pattern

5-0 across the last five, four by stoppage. Three of those stoppages came in round three after he had built a big lead on the strike count.

Caio Borralho

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Yousri Belgaroui

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Critical Insight
Half of Borralho's 18 wins are decisions; his six first-round finishes all came before the UFC, and his two UFC finishes (Oleksiejczuk, Craig) came in round two. Belgaroui has nine KO/TKO wins in 11, no submissions, and a habit of finishing late: three of his nine stoppages came in round three, including two of his three in the UFC.

Opposition strength (no shared opponents)

Without a reliable shared-opponent table, compare who each fighter has been tested against using SOS tier, UFC sample size, and recent elite-tier form — not raw records alone.

Factor	Caio	Yousri
Strength of schedule (SOS tier)	Ranked — de Ridder, Imavov (loss), Cannonier, Craig, Magomedov, Oleksiejczuk	Rising — UFC: Bekoev, Abdul-Malik, Santos. In kickboxing he faced Israel Adesanya twice and Alex Pereira three times.
UFC sample	8-1 in nine UFC bouts, plus two Contender Series wins	3-0 in three UFC bouts, all by stoppage (plus a Contender Series win and loss)
Recent ranked / elite touches (last 5)	3 elite · 0 veteran tier	0 elite · 0 veteran tier
Form-window difficulty edge: Fighter A (9 vs 0 tier points in listed bouts).
Last three opponents	Reinier de Ridder, Nassourdine Imavov, Jared Cannonier	Djorden Santos, Mansur Abdul-Malik, Azamat Bekoev

No shared opponents: The comparison is size, takedown exchanges and a three-round clock.

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and UFC experience before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

Caio

Yousri

Belgaroui lands 8.35 per minute at 65% and absorbs 1.93 across three UFC fights. Borralho lands 3.30 at 55% and absorbs 2.63 across nine.

Grappling

Caio

Yousri

Borralho: 10 of 22 takedowns, 74% takedown defence and 4:02 of control per 15 minutes. Belgaroui: opponents have landed 7 of 16 takedowns on him, and he has no submission wins.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

Caio

Yousri

Average of the two gauges.

Metric	Caio	Yousri
Avg fight time	15:26 (9 UFC bouts)	9:40 (3 UFC bouts)
Rounds out-landed	17 of 29	7 of 7
Standing / clinch / ground	82% / 4% / 14%	88% / 9% / 3%
Control per 15 min	4:02	0:51
Takedowns landed / conceded	10 / 5	1 / 7

Archetype Base Rate

Control grappler 55%45% Long-range kickboxer

Model read for this matchup · A three-round fight in a big cage asks the least of the kickboxer and the most of the grappler, which is why a #5 is only a 55% favourite.

Caio BorralhoYousri Belgaroui

Middleweight

Rank bars use the recorded division cohort. Where no rank is shown, the comparison shows the difference from the published division average; the white marker denotes equality. Percentage differences are percentage points (pp). Higher is not always better: fewer strikes absorbed is preferable.

Stat	Caio	Caio comparison	Div avg	Yousri comparison	Yousri
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	3.30	-0.92 vs avg	4.22	+4.13 vs avgfew UFC fights	8.35
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	55%	+2.10 pp vs avg	52.9%	+12.10 pp vs avg	65%
Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit.	60%	+8.10 pp vs avg	51.9%	+18.10 pp vs avg	70%
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	2.63	-1.00 vs avg	3.63	-1.70 vs avg	1.93
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	1.08	-0.85 vs avg	1.93	-1.41 vs avg	0.52
TD Acc	45% (10 of 22)	—	—	—few UFC fights	100% (1 of 1)
TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed.	74% (5 of 19 landed)	—	—	—	56% (7 of 16 landed)
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	0.43	-0.29 vs avg	0.72	-0.72 vs avg	0.00
Knockdowns	3 dealt / 0 absorbed	—	—	—	3 dealt / 0 absorbed
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	15:26	—	—	—	9:40

Statistical Verdict
Every striking number favours Belgaroui: nearly double the division's output, better accuracy, better defence and less damage taken. Borralho's case is on the other side of the sheet. He averages four minutes of control per 15, and Belgaroui's 56% takedown defence is below what a middleweight contender usually brings. Borralho's own takedown rate has dropped, though: 1 of 8 in his last five fights.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

Control Time per Round (sec)

Caio Borralho

Round one is where he wrestles: 79 seconds of control on average and 22.8% of his first-round strikes on the ground. He has out-landed his opponent in seven of nine UFC first rounds, and opponents land 11.3 on him.
Round two is his quietest — 10.9 landed at 51% — and the round he has most often lost on the strike count (four of nine).
Round three brings his most control (113 seconds) and his heaviest body work (26.6% of his strikes). Opponents land between 11 and 13 per round on him in every round, and nobody has knocked him down in the UFC.

Yousri Belgaroui

He has out-landed his opponent in all seven of his UFC rounds. His first rounds average 35.0 landed at 59%, almost all at distance (97%) and spread across head, body and legs.
Round two is his busiest: 41.0 landed at 68%, with more clinch work (17%). It is also where Abdul-Malik took him down and held him for 1:20.
Round three is his finishing round — Bekoev and Abdul-Malik were both stopped in it — and opponents landed just 1.5 per third round on him.

Critical Insight
On the feet the gap is large: Belgaroui lands 27-41 per round and opponents land 1.5-11 on him, while Borralho lands 11-16 and takes 11-13 back. What Belgaroui has not solved is the takedown — opponents landed six of 11 attempts on him in the first two rounds — and that is where Borralho's control has to come from.

Strike targeting

Caio

61%

21%

18%

Head

61%

Body

21%

Legs

18%

Yousri

59%

24%

17%

Head

59%

Body

24%

Legs

17%

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

CaioYousri

84%Distance88%

4%Clinch9%

12%Ground3%

Share of significant strikes landed at distance, in the clinch and on the ground across each fighter's UFC rounds, weighted by strike volume.

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much

Open spaceYousri owns it

97% of Belgaroui's first-round strikes land at distance; he has +4" of reach and lands 8.35 per minute.

PocketYousri owns it

Three knockdowns in three UFC fights for Belgaroui; Borralho has never been knocked down in the UFC.

ClinchYousri owns it

Belgaroui's knee finished Abdul-Malik in the clinch; only 4% of Borralho's strikes land there.

GroundCaio owns it

Borralho averages 4:02 of control per 15 minutes; opponents have landed 7 of 16 takedowns on Belgaroui.

The Deep Read

On the feet, Belgaroui's UFC record is close to perfect. He has out-landed his opponent in all seven rounds he has fought, by 242 to 56 in total, and landed at 65% while opponents landed at 30%. The two men who went three rounds with him both lost every round on the strike count and were stopped in the third.

Those two men also found the hole. Azamat Bekoev took him down three times in the first round and held him for 2:13; Mansur Abdul-Malik took him down twice in the second. Belgaroui got up both times and finished the fight, but opponents have landed 7 of 16 takedowns on him — the kind of opening Borralho built his early UFC career on, with more than ten minutes of control in two separate fights.

The question is which Borralho shows up. Since 2023 he has mostly kickboxed — 1 of 8 takedowns in his last five fights — and the Imavov loss showed what happens when he cannot get the fight down against a better striker. Against de Ridder, he took his one takedown attempt and won. The model leans Borralho because the grappling route exists, and keeps it close because Borralho has to choose it.

Path to Victory

Caio Borralho

Go back to the wrestling of his early UFC fights: take Belgaroui down in round one, hold position and make him carry weight, as Bekoev and Abdul-Malik did for stretches. On the feet, stay at a range where his lower-volume, accurate striking can keep rounds close.

Why they win

Control

4:02 of control per 15 minutes; 27% of his UFC fight time spent on top.

Takedown opportunities

Opponents have landed 7 of 16 takedowns on Belgaroui.

Durability

Never knocked down in nine UFC fights; both career losses are decisions.

Experience

Nine UFC fights, two five-round main events and a #5 ranking.

Submissions

Four career submissions, including a rear-naked choke of Oleksiejczuk in the UFC.

The gameplan

1
Wrestle early
The first takedown has to come in round one, before the strike count gets away from him.
2
Chain to the body lock
Feint the level change, then chain into the clinch rather than shooting from open space.
3
Stay out of kicking range
Either be close enough to grab or far enough away to be safe.
4
Win the control battle
Hold position and make Belgaroui work off his back.

Path to Victory

Yousri Belgaroui

Keep it a kickboxing match, make Borralho pay for every entry with the knee, and keep building the lead on the strike count until the finish comes, as it did in round three against Bekoev and Abdul-Malik.

Why they win

Size

+5" height, +4" reach, +5" leg reach.

Striking volume

8.35 landed per minute at 65%, against 3.30 at 55%.

Defence

1.93 absorbed per minute and 70% striking defence.

Every round won

Out-landed his opponent in all seven UFC rounds.

Finishing

Three UFC stoppages and nine KO/TKO wins.

The gameplan

1
Stay at range
Keep the fight at the end of his 79-inch reach.
2
Knee the entries
Punish level changes with the knee, as against Abdul-Malik.
3
Get up fast
He has been taken down in two of three UFC fights; the key is how quickly he returns to his feet.
4
Build the lead
Win every round on the count and look for the finish late.

Danger Zone

How Caio Borralho loses

The takedown never comes and he spends fifteen minutes trading with a man who lands more than twice as often.
He shoots from too far out and walks onto the knee that finished Abdul-Malik.
He loses the rounds on volume, as he did against Imavov.

Danger Zone

How Yousri Belgaroui loses

Borralho takes him down early and controls whole rounds, as Bekoev did for 2:13 of the first.
He is taken down late in rounds and loses a close decision on control time.
A scramble gives Borralho his neck.

Belgaroui on the feet

Every round, every fight

Belgaroui has out-landed his opponent in all seven of his UFC rounds, 242 to 56 in total.

7 of 7

UFC rounds out-landed by Belgaroui

Belgaroui on the mat

The takedown hole

Opponents have landed 7 of 16 takedowns on Belgaroui — four by Bekoev and three by Abdul-Malik — for 5:25 of control.

7 of 16

takedowns landed on Belgaroui

Early UFC fights against recent ones

Borralho's fading wrestling

Borralho landed 9 of 14 takedowns in his first four UFC fights and 1 of 8 in his last five.

1 of 8

Borralho takedowns in his last five fights

The Five-Round Clock

Caio Borralho danger windowYousri Belgaroui danger windowNeutral / contested

R1Borralho's wrestling round

79 seconds of control per first round for Borralho; Bekoev took Belgaroui down three times in the first. Belgaroui still averages 35 landed in first rounds.

Critical Insight
Borralho needs the early takedown; every round the fight stays standing adds to Belgaroui's lead and moves it toward the round where he finishes people.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things

Borralho is favoured on control: he spends 27% of his UFC fight time on top, and opponents have landed 7 of 16 takedowns on Belgaroui.

Belgaroui has out-landed his opponent in all seven UFC rounds and lands more than twice as often as Borralho. If there are no takedowns, this is his fight.

Borralho has landed one takedown in his last five UFC fights, which is why this is only 55-45.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Borralho Decision — 28%Borralho Submission — 16%Borralho KO/TKO — 11%Belgaroui KO/TKO — 32%Belgaroui Decision — 13%Belgaroui Submission — 0%

Each square = 1 model percentage point. Caio Borralho gold · Yousri Belgaroui orange · color opacity: 100% = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

The takedown exchange

Borralho's 4:02 of control per 15 minutes against Belgaroui's 56% takedown defence.

The striking gap

8.35 landed per minute at 65% for Belgaroui against 3.30 at 55%.

Borralho's recent wrestling

1 of 8 takedowns in his last five fights, after 9 of 14 in his first four.

Size

+5" height and +4" reach for Belgaroui.

Experience

Nine UFC fights and a #5 ranking against three fights.

Fight Scripts

of simulations

The de Ridder minutes

Borralho gets the early takedown, banks control and wins a decision — the pick's main route.

Scripted outcomes for Caio Borralho vs Yousri Belgaroui — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Caio Borralho win probability

11%

28%

16%

KO/TKODECSUB

The Craig path — a counter as Belgaroui comes forward. Five career KO wins.
Largest Borralho bucket: takedowns and control in two of three rounds.
Once it hits the mat: four career submissions.

Yousri Belgaroui win probability

32%

13%

KO/TKODECSUB

Largest single bucket: he has out-landed and stopped all three UFC opponents.
Out-lands Borralho for fifteen minutes without the finish.
No submission wins in 11. Not a real branch.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round

Caio

Yousri

Caio

29-28 Borralho

Takedowns in rounds one and three; Belgaroui wins the second on the feet

Most likely card inside Borralho's 28% decision share

29-28 Belgaroui

Belgaroui stops the early shots and out-lands him in two rounds

Most likely card inside Belgaroui's 13% decision share

Inside R3

Belgaroui's late finish

Much of the 32% KO/TKO share

Model and price

Caio Borralho

Quote age unknown

Model win probability: 55%
Fair odds: -122

Reference quote: -160 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 1.82

Estimated EV: -10.6%
Edge vs no-vig market: -4.2 pp

Yousri Belgaroui

Quote age unknown

Model win probability: 45%
Fair odds: +122

Reference quote: +136 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 2.22

Estimated EV: +6.2%
Edge vs no-vig market: +4.2 pp

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash marks a price without a same-book pair to compare.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Quotes listed with a date but no time are treated as undated.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Caio Borralho

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 1.82 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Yousri Belgaroui

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 2.23 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

Borralho is worth backing at −122 or better and Belgaroui at +122 or longer. Belgaroui by KO/TKO (32%, fair +213) is the largest single outcome; Borralho by decision (28%, fair +257) is the pick's main route, and Borralho by submission (16%, fair +525) is the grappling upside. The fight goes the distance 41% of the time (fair +144).

Conviction

5/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

A narrow lean. Control, experience and a takedown opening carry Borralho to 55. Belgaroui's striking, his size and Borralho's recent reluctance to wrestle keep conviction at 5 out of 10. Lean: Caio Borralho.

What backs the lean

4:02 of control per 15 minutes and four career submissions
Opponents have landed 7 of 16 takedowns on Belgaroui
Never knocked down in nine UFC fights
Nine UFC fights and a #5 ranking against three fights

What limits it

Belgaroui has out-landed his opponent in all seven UFC rounds
8.35 landed per minute against 3.30
+5" height and +4" reach in a 30-foot cage
Borralho has landed one takedown in his last five fights
Three rounds, not five

Final Assessment

In roughly 55 of 100 readings, Caio Borralho goes back to the wrestling of his early UFC fights, gets Belgaroui down and makes the rounds about control. Most often that is a decision (28%); a submission (16%) comes if a scramble opens the back or the neck, and a knockout (11%) if Belgaroui walks onto a counter. It is the de Ridder fight against a bigger, more dangerous striker.

In the other 45, Yousri Belgaroui keeps it standing and does what he has done in every UFC round so far — out-lands his man — until the finish comes (32%), early like Santos or late like Abdul-Malik and Bekoev. A decision (13%) exists if Borralho survives fifteen minutes on the feet. There is no submission branch.

Borralho 55 / Belgaroui 45, conviction 5 out of 10. The ranked grappler is the pick, but only if he chooses to grapple, and Belgaroui's size and striking make this one of the closest fights on the card.

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