Ranked wrestling minutes against a never-finished knockout artist — three rounds only.
Fight overview
Borralho wins if 1.25 TD/15 turns a 30-foot cage into the de Ridder control fight. Belgaroui wins if 6'6", 6.44 SLpM and 1.06 KD/15 keep it kickboxing for three rounds. That is why a #5 is only a 55% favorite.
Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.
Borralho rate line (18-2-0 with 1 NC, 6'1", southpaw) was compiled with the rest of the sheet. The Imavov result is a loss — a misleading Win tag was rejected. Belgaroui striking line is the post-Santos line (11-3, SLpM 6.44). An older listing still showed 10-3 with a September 12 preview against Kelvin Gastelum. TD Acc for Belgaroui is the pre-Santos snapshot (100%); it was not republished after Santos. Per-round tables omitted. No BetOnline price. Fair American from 55/45: Borralho −122, Belgaroui +122. This booking is three rounds, not five. Projections are editorial.
Model methodologyWhat this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it
Three-round middleweight bout on the main card in the 30-foot Madison Square Garden Octagon. Caio "The Natural" Borralho is 18-2 (1 NC), card rank #5, age 33, Fighting Nerds. His rate line is 3.47 SLpM, 56% accuracy, 60% striking defence, 2.61 SApM, 1.25 TD/15, 50% takedown accuracy, 76% takedown defence and 0.4 Sub/15. He decisioned Reinier de Ridder on March 7, 2026 and lost a five-round decision to Nassourdine Imavov on September 6, 2025. Yousri Belgaroui is 11-3, card rank #33, age 34, 6'6" with a 79" reach. An older listing still showed 10-3 and had not included the September 12 bout; the verified result is a Round-1 TKO of Djorden Santos, which is why this page keeps 11-3. All three of his UFC wins are stoppages. His rate line is 6.44 SLpM, 63% accuracy, 64% striking defence, 2.28 SApM, 0.27 TD/15 and 1.06 knockdowns per 15. He has never been finished. No BetOnline price was posted. Editorial read: Borralho 55%, Belgaroui 45%, conviction 5 out of 10.
Belgaroui is a different size: +5" in height on the compiled measurements (an older listing still printed Borralho at 73.5"), +4" in reach, +5" in leg reach. Borralho is southpaw. Belgaroui is orthodox. An older listing still listed Belgaroui 10-3; this page keeps 11-3 after Santos. Borralho has 9 UFC bouts (Contender Series excluded). Belgaroui has 3. The pair is medium reliability.
Venue FactorMadison Square Garden is 30 feet, and the bout is three rounds. Both facts help the longer kickboxer. Borralho's best wrestling nights have included five-round fights. He does not get that clock here. He has to close four inches of reach before the distance striker finds the chin.
Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage
Mostly decisions: de Ridder, the Imavov loss, Cannonier, Magomedov, Muradov, Petrosyan, and a technical decision over Omargadzhiev. Finishes are a Round-2 knockout of Paul Craig and a Round-2 rear-naked choke of Michal Oleksiejczuk. The Imavov loss snapped a 14-fight winning streak. He answered it with the de Ridder decision.
3-0 in the UFC, all stoppages: Santos (R1 4:25, September 12, 2026), Mansur Abdul-Malik (R3 3:39, March 28, 2026), Azamat Bekoev (R3 0:55, October 18, 2025). An older listing still showed 10-3. Two of three UFC finishes came in round three — he can be in a fight and still stop it late.
Opponent context: elite
Opponent context: elite
Opponent context: elite
Opponent context: ranked
Opponent context: ranked
4-1 in the last five, and four of the five went to a decision. The only finish is the Craig knockout. He just beat a submission specialist over three rounds — the same clock as this booking. Belgaroui is closer to the Imavov problem than to the de Ridder problem.
Opponent context: ufc
Opponent context: ufc
Opponent context: ufc
Does not have five UFC fights. Three above are 3-0, all stoppages, two in round three and the freshest in round one. A fourth and fifth UFC line are not invented.
Critical InsightMethod charts: Borralho 5 KO / 4 Sub / 9 Dec of 18; Belgaroui 9 / 0 / 2 of 11. Arithmetic: 5+4+9=18 and 9+0+2=11. Round bars: Borralho named finishes in round two (Craig); Belgaroui UFC finishes R1 Santos, R3 Abdul-Malik and Bekoev. Decision totals are career chart.
Without a reliable shared-opponent table, compare who each fighter has been tested against using SOS tier, UFC sample size, and recent elite-tier form — not raw records alone.
| Factor | Caio | Yousri |
|---|---|---|
| Strength of schedule (SOS tier) | Ranked — De Ridder, Imavov (loss), Cannonier, Craig, Magomedov. | Rising — Glory middleweight past includes Adesanya (0-2) and Pereira (1-2) in kickboxing. Trains with Pereira and Glover Teixeira. |
| UFC sample | 9 UFC bouts in the sample (Contender Series excluded) | 3-0 — all stoppages. Contender Series decision loss to Marco Tulio excluded from UFC count. |
| Recent ranked / elite touches (last 5) | 3 elite · 0 veteran tier | 0 elite · 0 veteran tier |
| Form-window difficulty edge: Fighter A (9 vs 0 tier points in listed bouts). | ||
| Last three opponents | Reinier de Ridder, Nassourdine Imavov, Jared Cannonier | Djorden Santos, Mansur Abdul-Malik, Azamat Bekoev |
Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence
Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and sample flags before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.
Belgaroui 6.44 / 63% / 64% def / 2.28 absorbed / 1.06 KD. Borralho 3.47 / 56% / 60% def / 2.61 absorbed / 0.39 KD.
Borralho 1.25 TD/15, 50% TD accuracy, 76% TDD, 0.4 Sub/15. Belgaroui 0.27 TD/15, 0.00 Sub/15, zero career subs.
(Striking + Grappling) / 2
Editorial average.
+5" height on the compiled measurements, +4" reach, three rounds, 30-foot cage.
The gauges are a dead heat. The 55/45 is a rank-and-wrestling tiebreak, not a blowout.
| Metric | Caio | Yousri |
|---|---|---|
| Striking accuracy | 56% (540/958) | 63% (364/576) |
| Standing / clinch / ground | 79% / 8% / 13% | 86% / 12% / 2% |
| Average fight time | 14:09 | 11:19 |
| UFC bouts | 9 | 3 |
| Card rank | #5 | #33 |
Editorial read of this booking, not an archetype database row · A three-round fight in a big cage asks the least of the kickboxer and the most of the grappler. That is why a #5 is only a 55% favorite.
| Stat | Caio | Caio rank | Div avg | Yousri rank | Yousri |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker. | 3.47 | — | — | — | 6.44 |
| Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise. | 56% | — | — | — | 63% |
| Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit. | 60% | — | — | — | 64% |
| SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better. | 2.61 | — | — | — | 2.28 |
| TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine. | 1.25 | — | — | — | 0.27 |
| TD Acc | 50% | — | — | — | 100% (pre-Santos) |
| TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed. | 76% | — | — | — | 67% |
| Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat. | 0.4 | — | — | — | 0.00 |
| KD/15 | 0.39 | — | — | — | 1.06 |
| Card rank | #5 | — | — | — | #33 |
Statistical VerdictOn a pure striking sheet Belgaroui is ahead in output, accuracy, defence, absorption and knockdowns, and he is the bigger man. Borralho's sheet wins the moment the fight leaves kickboxing range. 1.25 takedowns per 15 against 67% takedown defence is a live entry, not a guarantee.
Round-by-round significant-strike figures are unavailable for this comparison. Missing observations are not zero strikes.
Round-by-round control-time figures are unavailable for this comparison. Missing observations are not zero seconds of control.
Critical InsightThree rounds cut both the Imavov blueprint and Borralho's usual five-round room. Belgaroui can end it early like Santos or late like Abdul-Malik and Bekoev.
Strike-target figures are unavailable for this comparison.
Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage. Unavailable strike-target figures are omitted rather than shown as 0%.
The distribution of strikes by range is unavailable for this comparison.
Approximate share of significant strikes by range in available rounds, weighted by strike volume. Incomplete splits are excluded. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.
Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath
6'6", 79-inch reach, 6.44 SLpM at 63% in a 30-foot cage.
1.06 KD/15 against 0.39. Borralho already lost a striking decision to Imavov.
Entries to the body lock. Belgaroui is 12% clinch but 0.27 TD/15.
Borralho 13% ground strikes and four career submissions against Belgaroui's 2% ground and zero career subs.
Borralho is 79% standing with a 13% ground share. Belgaroui is 86% standing and 2% ground. The fight Belgaroui wants is the fight both men already mostly have. Borralho has to change the room. Belgaroui only has to keep it.
Neither man is getting knocked out on the recent log. Borralho's UFC loss in this window is a decision. Belgaroui has never been finished. The knockdown rate says Belgaroui is the one who creates that problem.
Turn 1.25 takedowns per 15 minutes into the control that beat de Ridder and Cannonier. Do not spend nine minutes at the end of a 79-inch reach trading 3.47 output for 6.44.
#5 against #33, nine UFC bouts against three.
76% takedown defence, 1.25 TD/15, 13% ground strikes, four career submissions.
Wins over de Ridder and Cannonier. Has been fifteen and twenty-five minutes with ranked middleweights.
Zero submission wins and 0.27 takedowns per 15.
Do not lead with a naked shot into a knee. Chain to the body lock.
Three rounds means the first takedown has to come before round three is a kickboxing deficit.
Keep the 30-foot cage big. Use 6'6", the right knee, and the 1.06 knockdown rate before a body lock becomes a round.
+5" height, +4" reach, +5" leg reach.
6.44 SLpM at 63% against 3.47 at 56%, plus 1.06 KD/15 and nine knockout wins.
2.28 absorbed, 64% defence, 3-0 UFC all stoppages, never finished as a pro.
Not Borralho's usual five-round room.
Exit on an angle. Do not accept the fence.
Two of his wins came late. He has to stop the shot.
Nine minutes at the end of a 79-inch reach become the Imavov problem with more knockout equity.
A naked shot walks into a knee and Santos happens in round one.
The first takedown sticks and four career submissions become live.
He wins early minutes and still gets controlled into a decision.
Average fight time 14:09 includes five-round fights. This booking is three rounds in a 30-foot cage — the version that asks the least of the kickboxer.
He can be the underdog and still own the most likely finish. That is why the favorite is only 55%.
An older listing still showed 10-3 and a Gastelum preview. Santos was a Round-1 TKO on September 12, 2026. This page keeps 11-3.
Belgaroui finished Santos at 4:25 of round one. Early KO equity is live.
Critical InsightThree rounds. Belgaroui finishes early or late. Borralho's spine is a decision if the wrestling lands before the third is a striking deficit.
Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.
One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction
Borralho 55 / Belgaroui 45. The lean is ranked wrestling over three rounds — capped because Belgaroui owns the largest single finish bucket at 32% KO/TKO.
This is a three-round bout, not five. The big cage and short clock vote with the kickboxer.
No BetOnline price. Fair odds: Borralho −122 / Belgaroui +122. Belgaroui is 11-3; an older listing still showed 10-3.
Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.
Each square = 1 simulated fight. Caio Borralho gold · Yousri Belgaroui orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.
1.25 TD/15 against 6'6" and 67% TDD is live, not a guarantee.
Removes Borralho's usual championship rounds and helps the kickboxer.
32% is the largest single bucket in the file.
Borralho already lost a long striking decision. Belgaroui hits harder.
Borralho closes distance, banks wrestling control, and wins a decision — the pick's spine.
Scripted outcomes for Caio Borralho vs Yousri Belgaroui — how each version of this fight unfolds.
The Craig path. Secondary — career is only 28% knockouts.
Largest Borralho bucket and the reason he is favored. Nine of eighteen wins.
Once it is down. Four career submissions.
Largest single bucket in the file. Entire UFC career so far.
Two career decision wins. Only if Borralho cannot wrestle and also cannot be finished.
Zero career submissions. Not a real branch.
EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.
Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.
Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.
Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.
Required decimal price: 1.82 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.
Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.
Required decimal price: 2.23 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.
Analyst prop read
No prop carries a clear value lean in this analysis.
Green rows mark props where our analysis sees value at the recorded BetOnline price. Red rows are overpriced relative to the model share. These are snapshots — verify the line is still available before acting.
| Prop | Reference quote | Implied % | Model % | Fair decimal odds | Difference (pp) | Estimated EV | Our read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belgaroui by KO/TKO | +213Fair odds | 31.9% | 32% | 3.13 | +0.1 | +0.2% | Fair price |
| Fight goes the distance | +144Fair odds | 41.0% | 41% | 2.44 | +0.0 | +0.0% | Fair price |
| Borralho by submission | +525Fair odds | 16.0% | 16% | 6.25 | 0.0 | 0.0% | Fair price |
| Borralho by KO/TKO | +809Fair odds | 11.0% | 11% | 9.09 | -0.0 | -0.0% | Fair price |
| Belgaroui by decision | +669Fair odds | 13.0% | 13% | 7.69 | -0.0 | -0.0% | Fair price |
| Borralho by decision | +257Fair odds | 28.0% | 28% | 3.57 | -0.0 | -0.0% | Fair price |
| Fight does not go the distance | -144Fair odds | 59.0% | 59% | 1.69 | -0.0 | -0.0% | Fair price |
Prop differences use raw implied probability, including the bookmaker margin. They are not the no-vig moneyline edge above.
These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.
Best lean: Borralho by decision at 28% is the pick's spine. Belgaroui by KO/TKO at 32% is the largest outcome in the file and the reason the favorite is only 55%. No market line to call an overlay.
Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
A narrow lean. Rank, wrestling and decision proof carry Borralho to 55. Size, striking sheet, three rounds and Belgaroui's 32% KO bucket keep conviction at 5 out of 10. Lean: Caio Borralho.
Nine UFC bouts against three, and a #5 rank against #33
1.25 takedowns per 15 minutes against a man at 0.27
76% takedown defence and four career submissions
Decision wins over de Ridder and Cannonier
Belgaroui has no submission game if the kickboxing stalls
6'6", 79-inch reach, 47-inch legs
6.44 SLpM at 63% accuracy and 1.06 knockdowns per 15
3-0 in the UFC, all stoppages, never finished as a pro
Better absorption on the sheet (2.28 versus 2.61)
Three rounds in a 30-foot cage
Borralho already lost a striking decision to Imavov
In roughly 55 of 100 readings, Caio Borralho makes the big cage smaller, lands enough wrestling to blunt the kickboxing, and wins a decision (28%), with a submission (16%) if the back or the neck comes free and a smaller knockout share (11%). That is the de Ridder fight moved up a weight of difficulty because the opponent is 6'6" and hits harder.
In the other 45, Yousri Belgaroui keeps it at range and wins by knockout (32%), early like Santos or late like Abdul-Malik and Bekoev. A decision (13%) exists if Borralho cannot wrestle and also survives. There is no submission branch.
Borralho 55 / Belgaroui 45, conviction 5 out of 10. The ranked grappler is the lean. The tallest knockout on the main card is the reason it is close. This bout is three rounds. Belgaroui's record is 11-3; an older listing still showed 10-3.
