Brendan Allen (27-7-0) meets Christian Leroy Duncan (15-2-0) over five rounds at middleweight on Saturday, October 10, 2026 at Meta APEX in Las Vegas. Allen wins if a stuffed takedown becomes a second grip. Duncan wins if he stays long and leaves before the clinch holds. The model has Allen at 58%.
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Matheus Camilo vs. Jai Herbert is the lightweight co-main: get to the fence before the longer man resets. Lupita Godinez, Andre Fili, Julius Walker and Malcolm Wellmaker complete the main card.
BetOnline is our preferred book, shown with the implied probability for each side. Lines move and prices vary across books, so confirm the current number before acting on an estimated edge.
Main event
Middleweight · 5 rounds
Market differences are not a ranking of best bets. Conviction is editorial; a close matchup does not automatically mean poor data.
Fights shown: 12/12 · Analyses available: 0/12
Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.
Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.
Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.
Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.
Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.
Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.
Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.
Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.
Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.
Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.
Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.
Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.
Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.
Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.
Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.
Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.
Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.
Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.
Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.
Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.
Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.
Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.
Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.
Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.
Model estimate
Preview
Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.
Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.
Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.
Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.
Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.
Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.
Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.
Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.
Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.
Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.
Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.
Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.
Deep Dive
This event is completed. The analysis below is the archived pre-fight preview; its predictions are not fight results.
The Story
Saturday, October 10 at Meta APEX, Brendan Allen (27-7-0) and Christian Leroy Duncan (15-2-0) have 25 minutes at middleweight. Allen's sequence is an entry behind his hands, a second attempt when the first is stuffed, and a submission hunt once the position settles. Duncan's answer is to punish the level change, exit sideways and never let a clinch become a round. If those entries land clean, Duncan is in a fourth round for the first time in his career with a grappler still attached. The model reads it 58% to 42% for Allen, conviction 4 out of 10, because Duncan's distance striking and five-fight win streak are real.
The co-main asks the same question at lightweight. Matheus Camilo has to reach Jai Herbert before a 7.5-inch reach and five first-round knockdowns get set. The model has Camilo at 54%. Lupita Godinez needs her combinations to become fence takedowns against Ketlen Souza, the path that beat Jéssica Andrade. Andre Fili should not try to out-work Kai Kamaka III, who lands 5.49 significant strikes per minute. His path is the longer reach, then a level change. Walker's wrestling should get Gerald Meerschaert down. The fight starts there: Meerschaert has 29 submission wins, and one loose neck is the underdog case. BetOnline has the main event at Allen -132 and Duncan +113.
Main Event — Middleweight
01Brendan Allen vs. Christian Leroy Duncan
Allen has to chain a second grip after the first shot is stuffed and hunt the submission from there. Duncan has to make each entry expensive and leave before the clinch holds. Model 58-42. BetOnline -132 / +113.
Co-Main — Lightweight
02Matheus Camilo vs. Jai Herbert
Camilo needs the fence in the first half of rounds. Herbert's edge is 7.5 inches of reach and five first-round knockdowns if he can force a reset. Model 54-46. BetOnline -195 / +165.
Main Card — Women's Strawweight
03Lupita Godinez vs. Ketlen Souza
Godinez wins when the hands are only the setup for a fence entry and top position, the path that beat Jéssica Andrade. Souza wins if every return to range is a clean counter. Model 56-44. BetOnline -225 / +189.
Main Card — Featherweight
04Andre Fili vs. Kai Kamaka III
Kamaka wants a kickboxing fight at his pace. Fili's path is to punish combinations that run long and turn them into takedowns, the mix that beat Cub Swanson. Model 54-46. BetOnline -150 / +128.
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan is a 12-bout Paramount+ card on Saturday, October 10, 2026 at Meta APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada. Brendan Allen (27-7-0) meets Christian Leroy Duncan (15-2-0) at middleweight over five rounds. Allen's path is the mat. Duncan's path is keeping the fight at range.
The main card starts at 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, October 10, 2026 on Paramount+. That is 5:00 PM PT, 1:00 AM BST on Sunday, 2:00 AM CEST on Sunday and 4:00 AM in Abu Dhabi on Sunday. Broadcast schedules are subject to change.
Six bouts on the main card and six on the prelims. Main card: Brendan Allen (27-7-0) meets Christian Leroy Duncan (15-2-0) at middleweight over 5 rounds. Matheus Camilo (11-3-0) meets Jai Herbert (14-6-1) at lightweight over 3 rounds. Lupita Godinez (14-6-0) meets Ketlen Souza (17-6-0) at women's strawweight over 3 rounds. Andre Fili (25-14-0) meets Kai Kamaka III (18-8-1) at featherweight over 3 rounds. Julius Walker (7-3-0) meets Gerald Meerschaert (37-22-0) at light heavyweight over 3 rounds. Malcolm Wellmaker (10-2-0) meets Otari Tanzilovi (10-2-0) at bantamweight over 3 rounds. Prelims: Francisco Prado (12-5-0) meets Ismael Bonfim (20-7-0) at lightweight over 3 rounds. Niko Price (16-11-0) meets Leon Shahbazyan (12-5-0) at welterweight over 3 rounds. Felipe Franco (11-2-0) meets Brendson Ribeiro (17-11-0) at light heavyweight over 3 rounds. RJ Harris (6-0-0) meets Allen Frye Jr. (6-1-0) at heavyweight over 3 rounds. Darya Zheleznyakova (10-3-0) meets Alice Pereira (6-1-0) at women's bantamweight over 3 rounds. Ernesta Kareckaite (6-2-1) meets Melissa Gatto (9-3-2) at women's flyweight over 3 rounds.
Yes. The model gives Brendan Allen a 58% win probability and Christian Leroy Duncan 42%, with conviction at 4 out of 10. BetOnline lists Allen at -132 and Duncan at +113. Every bout on the card has its own fight page with a full matchup breakdown.
Brendan Allen vs. Christian Leroy Duncan is scheduled for five rounds. The other eleven bouts are scheduled for three rounds. Card order and matchups remain subject to change.
Methodology
No black box. Published probabilities follow the same three steps, and you can check each one yourself.
1. We watch every fight
Recorded UFC performances provide the evidence — strikes landed and absorbed, takedowns, damage, pace, and who each fighter has actually faced. No highlight reels, no reputation: just recorded performance.
2. We estimate the matchup
Each analysis weighs styles, cardio, durability and level of competition to describe likely outcomes. The 100-square chart visualizes that probability distribution; the number of squares is not evidence of model accuracy.
3. We compare it to the market
We compare the estimate with sportsbook prices, prioritizing BetOnline. Positive expected value depends on both the probability estimate and the available price. Quote age, bookmaker margin and model uncertainty all affect how useful the comparison is.
What the percentages mean
74% next to a fighter means that fighter is estimated to win about 74 out of 100 comparable matchups under the model assumptions. Odds like -425 are the market's price; converting them to an implied percentage lets us compare like-for-like. The 🔴 🟡 🟢 icons tell you how much UFC data we have on each fighter; they do not measure prediction accuracy.
UFC experience is one input in the confidence rating. Fighters with five or more UFC bouts give the model a longer rate line. A shorter UFC record does not make the fight unreadable. It means pre-UFC results carry more of the weight, and the icon on each bout says which case you are in.
High Risk (**)
<3 UFC Bouts
Fewer than three UFC bouts. The read leans harder on pre-UFC results.
Moderate Risk (*)
3-4 UFC Bouts
Three or four UFC bouts. Enough of a rate line to trust the direction of the read. Not enough to treat every number as stable.
Optimal Data
5+ UFC Bouts
Five or more UFC bouts. One outlier night does not rewrite the profile, so the pick can carry more weight.
Note: Each fight on this card carries one of these icons. Use it to see how much UFC data sits under the pick.
Yellow marks our forecast favorite. The comparison shows our win estimate against the probability implied by each quote. Gap is in percentage points (pp), includes bookmaker margin, and is not expected return.
| Fight | Fighter A | Win estimate A | Market / implied A | Fighter B | Win estimate B | Market / implied B | Model / market & our read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen vs Duncan🟢 | Brendan Allen | — | -132 (BetOnline)56.9% implied | Christian Leroy Duncan | — | +113 (BetOnline)46.9% implied | Matchup preview Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page. |
| Godinez vs Souza🟢 | Lupita Godinez | — | -225 (BetOnline)69.2% implied | Ketlen Souza | — | +189 (BetOnline)34.6% implied | Matchup preview Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page. |
| Fili vs III🟢 | Andre Fili | — | -150 (BetOnline)60.0% implied | Kai Kamaka III | — | +128 (BetOnline)43.9% implied | Matchup preview Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page. |
| Wellmaker vs Tanzilovi🔴 | Malcolm Wellmaker | — | -205 (BetOnline)67.2% implied | Otari Tanzilovi | — | +173 (BetOnline)36.6% implied | Matchup preview Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page. |
| Camilo vs Herbert🟡 | Matheus Camilo | — | -195 (BetOnline)66.1% implied | Jai Herbert | — | +165 (BetOnline)37.7% implied | Matchup preview Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page. |
| Zheleznyakova vs Pereira🔴 | Darya Zheleznyakova | — | +114 (BetOnline)46.7% implied | Alice Pereira | — | -133 (BetOnline)57.1% implied | Matchup preview Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page. |
| Franco vs Ribeiro🔴 | Felipe Franco | — | -340 (BetOnline)77.3% implied | Brendson Ribeiro | — | +276 (BetOnline)26.6% implied | Matchup preview Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page. |
| Kareckaite vs Gatto🟡 | Ernesta Kareckaite | — | -107 (BetOnline)51.7% implied | Melissa Gatto | — | -125 (BetOnline)55.6% implied | Matchup preview Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page. |
| Walker vs Meerschaert🟡 | Julius Walker | — | -255 (BetOnline)71.8% implied | Gerald Meerschaert | — | +212 (BetOnline)32.1% implied | Matchup preview Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page. |
| Harris vs Jr.🔴 | RJ Harris | — | -260 (BetOnline)72.2% implied | Allen Frye Jr. | — | +216 (BetOnline)31.6% implied | Matchup preview Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page. |
| Prado vs Bonfim🟢 | Francisco Prado | — | -106 (BetOnline)51.5% implied | Ismael Bonfim | — | -110 (BetOnline)52.4% implied | Matchup preview Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page. |
| Price vs Shahbazyan🔴 | Niko Price | — | +136 (BetOnline)42.4% implied | Leon Shahbazyan | — | -160 (BetOnline)61.5% implied | Matchup preview Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page. |
