UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan takes place Saturday, October 10, 2026 at Meta APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada. Brendan Allen (27-7-0) meets Christian Leroy Duncan (15-2-0) at middleweight over 5 rounds. The middleweight main event is scheduled for up to 25 minutes.
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Lupita Godinez vs. Ketlen Souza features on the main card at women’s strawweight. Andre Fili vs. Kai Kamaka III, Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Otari Tanzilovi, Matheus Camilo vs. Jai Herbert also feature on the announced card.
BetOnline is our preferred reference when available. We show the selected source and implied probability; this is not a guarantee of the best price across all books. Check the capture date before treating an estimated edge as current.
Main event
Middleweight · 5 rounds
Market differences are not a ranking of best bets. Conviction is editorial; a close matchup does not automatically mean poor data.
Fights shown: 12/12 · Analyses available: 12/12
Tactical key
Duncan's higher published striking output and lower absorption support his route at distance. Allen's submission record makes sustained contact the more dangerous phase for Duncan. Over five rounds, the key is whether Allen can repeatedly reach useful positions without paying too much on the way in.
Editorial forecast: Lean: Brendan Allen
Model forecast pending.
What limits this estimate: Duncan has the stronger published distance-striking profile. If Allen pays for failed entries, the basis for the selection deteriorates quickly.
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Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.
Tactical key
Godinez's published takedown rate is substantially higher, making her entries a plausible way to disrupt Souza's striking rhythm. Souza's accuracy and knockout history make those approaches costly if they are predictable. The distinction is between securing contact and producing effective offence after it.
Editorial forecast: Lean: Lupita Godinez
Model forecast pending.
What limits this estimate: Souza's accuracy and knockdown history make unprotected entries costly. Control must produce effective offence, not simply time against the fence.
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Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.
Tactical key
Kamaka's published output is higher, but so is his strike absorption. Fili's greater takedown rate gives him a way to interrupt prolonged exchanges instead of matching volume alone. Both have enough experience that the ability to connect phases matters more than a single clean opening.
Editorial forecast: Lean: Andre Fili
Model forecast pending.
What limits this estimate: Kamaka's higher output can win rounds if Fili cannot make wrestling a meaningful part of them; career sample size alone does not favour Fili.
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Capture date unavailable
Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.
Tactical key
Wellmaker's knockdown production highlights the danger of approaching him carelessly. Tanzilovi's early wrestling numbers suggest a route through repeated entries, but his UFC sample is small. The first safe entry and the defence immediately after it are more informative than extrapolating those averages.
Editorial forecast: No clear lean
Model forecast pending.
What limits this estimate: Wellmaker's knockdown rate and Tanzilovi's takedown rate are both sensitive to short exposure and should not be extrapolated into finish odds.
Capture date unavailable
Capture date unavailable
Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.
Tactical key
Camilo's published takedown frequency points to a grappling route against Herbert's striking-led approach. Herbert can answer with distance, straight attacks and exits that prevent consecutive entries. Camilo's limited UFC experience makes the cost of repeated attempts an important uncertainty.
Editorial forecast: Lean: Matheus Camilo
Model forecast pending.
What limits this estimate: Two UFC appearances leave Camilo's pace and defensive reliability uncertain. Herbert can overturn the selection by forcing repeated resets.
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Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.
Tactical key
Zheleznyakova's published output is higher than Pereira's, while both profiles show relatively low offensive wrestling usage. That makes clean striking exchanges a useful starting point. Pereira's smaller UFC sample leaves uncertainty about whether her current pace reflects a lasting tendency or the specific fights she has had.
Editorial forecast: No clear lean
Model forecast pending.
What limits this estimate: Higher volume does not establish cleaner damage, and two UFC fights do not provide a stable estimate of Pereira's finishing threat.
Capture date unavailable
Capture date unavailable
Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.
Tactical key
Franco's published wrestling frequency gives him a route to take away Poppeck's longer striking exchanges. Poppeck's high absorption figure comes from limited UFC exposure and should be treated as a signal to investigate, not his expected pace in every fight.
Editorial forecast: Lean: Felipe Franco
Model forecast pending.
What limits this estimate: Poppeck's extreme absorption in one bout is not a dependable forecast. The lean requires Franco to make his entries work against this opponent.
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Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.
Tactical key
Kareckaite's high published striking output comes with substantial absorption. Gatto's wrestling and submission history give her a way to change the position instead of meeting that volume directly. The fight can turn on whether Kareckaite exits combinations before Gatto establishes contact.
Editorial forecast: No clear lean
Model forecast pending.
What limits this estimate: Kareckaite also absorbs at a high rate; Gatto's lower output cannot be read as an automatic scoring disadvantage when phases change.
Capture date unavailable
Capture date unavailable
Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.
Tactical key
Walker's wrestling frequency suggests he can seek contact repeatedly, but Meerschaert's submission record makes every transition consequential. Landing a takedown is not the same as winning the grappling exchange. Their booking at light heavyweight also limits direct use of Meerschaert's middleweight history.
Editorial forecast: Lean: Julius Walker
Model forecast pending.
What limits this estimate: Meerschaert's submission activity makes loose top control dangerous. Walker's 100% takedown defence in a small sample does not remove that risk.
Capture date unavailable
Capture date unavailable
Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.
Tactical key
Harris's very high published rates come from a brief UFC appearance; Frye's exposure is also limited. The opening exchanges therefore offer more uncertainty than the numerical contrast suggests. Balance after the first attack and defensive recovery should carry more weight than multiplying either rate across fifteen minutes.
Editorial forecast: No clear lean
Model forecast pending.
What limits this estimate: Per-15-minute knockdown rates can become extreme after a very short fight and should not be read as repeatable round-by-round output.
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Capture date unavailable
Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.
Tactical key
Bonfim's published output, accuracy and defence compare favourably with Prado's, supporting a route through structured exchanges. Prado's mixed knockout and submission wins give him ways to change the fight when positions become unstable. At lightweight, the ability to keep those exchanges controlled is central.
Editorial forecast: Lean: Ismael Bonfim
Model forecast pending.
What limits this estimate: Prado's submission activity gives him a way to change the contest after contact; Bonfim must avoid exchanging positional security for damage.
Capture date unavailable
Capture date unavailable
Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.
Tactical key
Both profiles show substantial strike absorption, with Shahbazyan's figure based on a much smaller UFC sample. Price can make the fight a sustained sequence of exchanges; Shahbazyan's submission history suggests that transitions may be more useful than a prolonged trading contest.
Editorial forecast: No clear lean
Model forecast pending.
What limits this estimate: Price's long career cannot substitute for present readiness, and Shahbazyan's one-bout rates should not be treated as a stable level.
Capture date unavailable
Capture date unavailable
Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.
Deep Dive
The full story behind UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan: event format, featured matchups and the evidence needed for a prediction.
The Story
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan takes place Saturday, October 10, 2026 at Meta APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada. Brendan Allen (27-7-0) meets Christian Leroy Duncan (15-2-0) at middleweight over 5 rounds. The middleweight main event is scheduled for up to 25 minutes.
Lupita Godinez vs. Ketlen Souza features on the main card at women’s strawweight. Andre Fili vs. Kai Kamaka III, Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Otari Tanzilovi, Matheus Camilo vs. Jai Herbert also feature on the announced card. Matchup previews are available for every listed fight. Win probabilities, fair prices and betting edges remain pending while the supporting evidence is verified.
Main Event — Middleweight
01Brendan Allen vs. Christian Leroy Duncan
Brendan Allen (27-7-0) meets Christian Leroy Duncan (15-2-0) at middleweight over 5 rounds.
Main Card — Women's Strawweight
02Lupita Godinez vs. Ketlen Souza
Lupita Godinez (14-6-0) meets Ketlen Souza (17-6-0) at women's strawweight over 3 rounds.
Main Card — Featherweight
03Andre Fili vs. Kai Kamaka III
Andre Fili (25-14-0) meets Kai Kamaka III (18-8-1) at featherweight over 3 rounds.
Prelim Spotlight — Bantamweight
04Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Otari Tanzilovi
Malcolm Wellmaker (10-2-0) meets Otari Tanzilovi (10-2-0) at bantamweight over 3 rounds.
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan takes place Saturday, October 10, 2026 at Meta APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada. Brendan Allen (27-7-0) meets Christian Leroy Duncan (15-2-0) at middleweight over 5 rounds. The middleweight main event is scheduled for up to 25 minutes.
The main card starts at 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, October 10, 2026 on Paramount+. That is 5:00 PM PT, 1:00 AM BST on Sunday, 2:00 AM CEST on Sunday and 4:00 AM in Abu Dhabi on Sunday. Broadcast schedules are subject to change.
Brendan Allen (27-7-0) meets Christian Leroy Duncan (15-2-0) at middleweight over 5 rounds. Lupita Godinez (14-6-0) meets Ketlen Souza (17-6-0) at women's strawweight over 3 rounds. Andre Fili (25-14-0) meets Kai Kamaka III (18-8-1) at featherweight over 3 rounds. Malcolm Wellmaker (10-2-0) meets Otari Tanzilovi (10-2-0) at bantamweight over 3 rounds. Matheus Camilo (11-3-0) meets Jai Herbert (14-6-1) at lightweight over 3 rounds. Darya Zheleznyakova (10-3-0) meets Alice Pereira (6-1-0) at women's bantamweight over 3 rounds. Felipe Franco (11-2-0) meets Alexander Poppeck (21-6-0) at light heavyweight over 3 rounds. Ernesta Kareckaite (6-2-1) meets Melissa Gatto (9-3-2) at women's flyweight over 3 rounds. Julius Walker (7-3-0) meets Gerald Meerschaert (37-22-0) at light heavyweight over 3 rounds. RJ Harris (6-0-0) meets Allen Frye Jr. (6-1-0) at heavyweight over 3 rounds. Francisco Prado (12-5-0) meets Ismael Bonfim (20-7-0) at lightweight over 3 rounds. Niko Price (16-11-0) meets Leon Shahbazyan (12-5-0) at welterweight over 3 rounds.
Matchup previews are available for every listed fight. Win probabilities, fair prices and betting edges remain pending while the supporting evidence is verified.
Brendan Allen vs. Christian Leroy Duncan is scheduled for five rounds. Every other listed matchup is scheduled for three rounds. Card order and matchups remain subject to change.
Methodology
No black box. Published probabilities follow the same three steps, and you can check each one yourself.
1. We watch every fight
Recorded UFC performances provide the evidence — strikes landed and absorbed, takedowns, damage, pace, and who each fighter has actually faced. No highlight reels, no reputation: just recorded performance.
2. We estimate the matchup
Each analysis weighs styles, cardio, durability and level of competition to describe likely outcomes. The 100-square chart visualizes that probability distribution; the number of squares is not evidence of model accuracy.
3. We compare it to the market
We compare the estimate with sportsbook prices, prioritizing BetOnline. Positive expected value depends on both the probability estimate and the available price. Quote age, bookmaker margin and model uncertainty all affect how useful the comparison is.
What the percentages mean
74% next to a fighter means that fighter is estimated to win about 74 out of 100 comparable matchups under the model assumptions. Odds like -425 are the market's price; converting them to an implied percentage lets us compare like-for-like. The 🔴 🟡 🟢 icons tell you how much UFC data we have on each fighter; they do not measure prediction accuracy.
Our analytical model considers UFC experience as one of several factors for optimal predictions. While we can analyze any fight, fighters with 5+ UFC bouts provide more comprehensive data for our statistical modeling. This doesn't diminish the quality of our analysis for newer fighters - it's simply one criterion we factor into our confidence assessments.
High Risk (**)
<3 UFC Bouts
Limited UFC data available. Analysis relies more heavily on external sources and pre-UFC performance patterns.
Moderate Risk (*)
3-4 UFC Bouts
Meaningful UFC sample size with good analytical foundation. Reliable insights with solid confidence levels.
Optimal Data
5+ UFC Bouts
Comprehensive statistical foundation enabling highest confidence analysis and predictive accuracy.
Note: Analysis availability is labeled on every fight card. This framework simply helps calibrate confidence in our predictions.
| Fight | Fighter A | Model Prob A | Market Odds A | Implied Prob A | Fighter B | Model Prob B | Market Odds B | Implied Prob B | Editorial forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen vs Duncan🟢 | Brendan Allen | Forecast pending | N/A | — | Christian Leroy Duncan | Forecast pending | N/A | — | Lean: Brendan AllenQualitative assessment |
| Godinez vs Souza🟢 | Lupita Godinez | Forecast pending | N/A | — | Ketlen Souza | Forecast pending | N/A | — | Lean: Lupita GodinezQualitative assessment |
| Fili vs III🟢 | Andre Fili | Forecast pending | N/A | — | Kai Kamaka III | Forecast pending | N/A | — | Lean: Andre FiliQualitative assessment |
| Wellmaker vs Tanzilovi🔴 | Malcolm Wellmaker | Forecast pending | N/A | — | Otari Tanzilovi | Forecast pending | N/A | — | No clear leanQualitative assessment |
| Camilo vs Herbert🔴 | Matheus Camilo | Forecast pending | N/A | — | Jai Herbert | Forecast pending | N/A | — | Lean: Matheus CamiloQualitative assessment |
| Zheleznyakova vs Pereira🔴 | Darya Zheleznyakova | Forecast pending | N/A | — | Alice Pereira | Forecast pending | N/A | — | No clear leanQualitative assessment |
| Franco vs Poppeck🔴 | Felipe Franco | Forecast pending | N/A | — | Alexander Poppeck | Forecast pending | N/A | — | Lean: Felipe FrancoQualitative assessment |
| Kareckaite vs Gatto🟡 | Ernesta Kareckaite | Forecast pending | N/A | — | Melissa Gatto | Forecast pending | N/A | — | No clear leanQualitative assessment |
| Walker vs Meerschaert🟡 | Julius Walker | Forecast pending | N/A | — | Gerald Meerschaert | Forecast pending | N/A | — | Lean: Julius WalkerQualitative assessment |
| Harris vs Jr.🔴 | RJ Harris | Forecast pending | N/A | — | Allen Frye Jr. | Forecast pending | N/A | — | No clear leanQualitative assessment |
| Prado vs Bonfim🟢 | Francisco Prado | Forecast pending | N/A | — | Ismael Bonfim | Forecast pending | N/A | — | Lean: Ismael BonfimQualitative assessment |
| Price vs Shahbazyan🔴 | Niko Price | Forecast pending | N/A | — | Leon Shahbazyan | Forecast pending | N/A | — | No clear leanQualitative assessment |
