Malcolm Wellmaker vs Otari Tanzilovi: analysis & prediction

MAIN CARD · BANTAMWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan
Malcolm Wellmaker — Bantamweight fighter

Malcolm Wellmaker

“The Machine”
10W2L
Counter Striker
VS
Otari Tanzilovi — Bantamweight fighter

Otari Tanzilovi

10W2L
Wrestling Entries

Wellmaker's counters meet Tanzilovi's wrestling entries

BantamweightMeta APEXOctober 10, 202625ft Octagon (Meta APEX)

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Wellmaker is most dangerous early: both of his UFC wins were first-round knockouts, while his submission loss to Juan Diaz exposed the weak spot. Tanzilovi must disguise his level changes and stay attached through the first sprawl, because a telegraphed shot is what a counter-puncher waits for. Survive that and control can tilt later rounds, but only if he strikes from top; wrestling volume alone did not win his debut.

Paths that change the fight

  • Malcolm WellmakerMake the initial entry miss, counter without overcommitting and recover a stable stance before the next shot — finish or steal rounds on damage.
  • Otari TanziloviDisguise level changes, stay connected through the first sprawl and turn control into strikes rather than letting Wellmaker reset at range.
What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 4/10
  • Tanzilovi's takedown rate comes from one UFC fight.
  • Wellmaker's knockdown rate rests on two early KOs in four bouts.

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Malcolm Wellmaker

Freshness unverified
Model win probability
50%
Fair odds
+100
Reference quote
-205 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds
2.00

Otari Tanzilovi

Freshness unverified
Model win probability
50%
Fair odds
+100
Reference quote
+173 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds
2.00
Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Sources and data limitations

Career statistics and fight results through September 2026; UFC rates cover UFC bouts only (Wellmaker 4, Tanzilovi 1). Composite scores, probabilities and fair prices are MMA Analytics model outputs.

Model methodology
Read the evidenceInspect prices and assumptions
01

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Malcolm Wellmaker arrived as a first-round finisher, then dropped his last two fights to opponents who took him down, the latest ending in a rear-naked choke. Otari Tanzilovi, a five-time Georgian kickboxing champion, turned wrestler on his UFC debut and lost a decision to Shane Collins despite controlling long stretches. The fight asks whether a counter-puncher can make each shot miss before it becomes a scramble. Neither man has much Octagon mileage, so the swing is which habit holds under pressure: Tanzilovi's new wrestling or Wellmaker's takedown defence.

Malcolm Wellmaker
Attribute
Otari Tanzilovi
32
Age
+4 years Wellmaker28
5' 10"
Height
5' 10"
71.5"+1.5" Wellmaker
Reach
70"
10-2-0
Pro Record
10-2-0
2-2 (4 bouts)
UFC Record
0-1 (1 bout)
Counter striker, KO power
Fighting Style
Kickboxer who wrestled on his UFC debut

Even height at bantamweight, with Wellmaker's 71.5-inch reach — an inch and a half longer than Tanzilovi's 70 — giving him room to meet Tanzilovi's entries at the end of his counters.

Venue Factor
The 25-foot APEX cage gives Wellmaker less room to back off and counter and gets Tanzilovi to the fence sooner — but both of Wellmaker's UFC wins were first-round knockouts, so one clean counter can end it before wrestling minutes add up.
02

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Malcolm Wellmaker in the Octagon

Malcolm Wellmaker

Pro Record
10-2-0
UFC Record
2-2 — W KO Saaiman · W KO Moutinho · L DEC Ewing · L SUB Diaz
Streak
Two losses — Ewing decision (Nov 2025), rear-naked choke by Juan Diaz (May 2026)
Finish Rate
8 finishes in 10 wins — 6 KO/TKO, 2 submissions; six in R1
Avg Fight Time
7:11
Chin · Unbroken — 0 knockdowns absorbed in 4 UFC bouts; never stopped by strikesSOS · DevelopingCounter striker

Four UFC bouts in thirteen months after a first-round Contender Series knockout: 1:59 and 2:37 knockouts of Saaiman and Moutinho, then a decision loss to Ethyn Ewing and a second-round rear-naked choke by Juan Diaz, who landed 5 of 8 takedowns. He has conceded 8 of 14 UFC takedown attempts and landed none of his own three — the profile of a striker who must make entries miss.

Otari Tanzilovi portrait

Otari Tanzilovi

Pro Record
10-2-0
UFC Record
0-1 — L DEC Shane Collins (Jun 2026)
Streak
One loss — unanimous decision to Shane Collins on his UFC debut
Finish Rate
7 finishes in 10 wins — all KO/TKO, five in R1
Avg Fight Time
15:00
Chin · Untested — 0 knockdowns absorbed; never stopped (both losses were decisions)SOS · UFC newcomerKickboxer with entries

A five-time Georgian kickboxing champion whose seven knockouts include a spinning back kick, a flying switch kick and a body kick. After a split-decision Contender Series loss in 2024 and a Fury FC win in 2025, he wrestled on his UFC debut — 5 of 9 takedowns and 4:14 of control against Shane Collins — but was out-landed 76-58 and lost a unanimous decision.

Malcolm Wellmaker
0 dealt · 0 absorbed
Knockdown Exchange
Knockdowns dealt vs absorbed.
Otari Tanzilovi
0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Malcolm Wellmakersignature weapons

Punch (KO)Latest: Kris Moutinho, R1 (2:37), Jun 2025
×4
Punches (TKO)Justin Hughes R1 (2023), Chase Boutwell R2 (2024)
×2
Rear-Naked ChokeLatest: Christopher Wingate, R1 (4:18), Oct 2022
×2

Otari Tanzilovisignature weapons

Punches (TKO)Latest: Eduardo Dinis do Nascimento, R3 (3:04), Sep 2022
×3
KicksSpinning back kick, flying switch kick, body kick — 2021–22, all in R1
×3
Body PunchesVefxo Chincharauli, R2 (1:45), Jun 2021
×1

Malcolm Wellmaker

L
Juan Diaz
Submission — Rear-naked choke

Opponent context: ufc

R2 (4:08)
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa — May 16, 2026
L
Ethyn Ewing
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: prospect

R3 (5:00)
UFC 322, New York — Nov 15, 2025
W
Kris Moutinho
KO — Punch

Opponent context: veteran

R1 (2:37)
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley — Jun 14, 2025
W
Cameron Saaiman
KO — Punch

Opponent context: prospect

R1 (1:59)
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates — Apr 26, 2025
W
Adam Bramhald
KO — Punch

Opponent context: ufc adjacent

R1 (2:29)
Dana White's Contender Series — Aug 27, 2024
Pattern

Three straight first-round knockouts (Contender Series, Saaiman, Moutinho), then two losses to opponents who took him down — Ewing landed 3 of 5 takedowns, Diaz 5 of 8 before the choke.

Otari Tanzilovi

L
Shane Collins
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: ufc

R3 (5:00)
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi — Jun 20, 2026
W
Guillermo Torres
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: ufc adjacent

R3 (5:00)
Fury FC 101 — Feb 7, 2025
L
Josias Musasa
Decision — Split

Opponent context: ufc adjacent

R3 (5:00)
Dana White's Contender Series — Sep 10, 2024
W
Khikmatillo Abdullaev
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: ufc adjacent

R3 (5:00)
Octagon 39 — Jan 21, 2023
W
Eduardo Dinis do Nascimento
TKO — Punches

Opponent context: ufc adjacent

R3 (3:04)
UAE Warriors 33 — Sep 17, 2022
Pattern

No finishes in his last four fights — all went fifteen minutes, two of them losses. His UFC debut was a wrestling performance that still lost the strike count.

Malcolm Wellmaker

Win Methods
Wins by Round

Otari Tanzilovi

Win Methods
Wins by Round
Critical Insight
Wellmaker has finished 8 of his 10 wins, six in the first round. Tanzilovi's seven knockouts came early too (five in R1), but his last four fights all went the distance. The model's 50/50 split spreads outcomes across knockout and decision buckets for both sides.

Opposition strength (no shared opponents)

Without a reliable shared-opponent table, compare who each fighter has been tested against using SOS tier, UFC sample size, and recent elite-tier form — not raw records alone.

FactorMalcolmOtari
Strength of schedule (SOS tier)Developing — First-round KOs of Saaiman and Moutinho; decision loss to Ewing, submission loss to DiazUFC newcomer — One UFC fight; Contender Series split-decision loss (2024); Fury FC decision win (2025)
UFC sample2-2 — W KO Saaiman · W KO Moutinho · L DEC Ewing · L SUB Diaz0-1 — L DEC Shane Collins (Jun 2026)
Recent ranked / elite touches (last 5)0 elite · 1 veteran tier0 elite · 0 veteran tier
Form-window difficulty edge: Fighter A (4 vs 0 tier points in listed bouts).
Last three opponentsJuan Diaz, Ethyn Ewing, Kris MoutinhoShane Collins, Guillermo Torres, Josias Musasa
03

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and UFC experience before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

SLpM 25% · StrAcc 30% · StrDef 30% · SApM 15%

0
Malcolm
0
Otari

Tanzilovi's accuracy (65% vs 53%) against Wellmaker's volume and absorption (4.28 landed and 3.93 absorbed per minute vs 3.87 and 5.07).

Grappling

TD/15 25% · TDAcc 25% · TDDef 30% · Sub/15 20%

0
Malcolm
0
Otarifew UFC fights

Tanzilovi landed 5 of 9 takedowns and stuffed all 6 against him in his only UFC fight; Wellmaker has conceded 8 of 14.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

0
Malcolm
0
Otarifew UFC fights

Aggregate edge to Tanzilovi — built on a single UFC appearance.

MetricMalcolmOtari
Avg Fight Time7:11 (4 UFC bouts)15:00 (1 UFC bout)
KD Rate1.04 KD/150.00 KD/15
TD Pace0.00 TD/155.00 TD/15
TD Defence43%100% (6 of 6 stuffed)
UFC Bouts4 bouts1 bout

Archetype Base Rate

Counter Striker 50%50% Wrestling Entries

Model lean — 50/50 coin flip · 50/50 model lean: knockdown threat vs takedown pace, with conviction capped at 4/10 by two short UFC careers.

Malcolm WellmakerOtari Tanzilovi

Bantamweight

· 81 fighters

Rank bars use the recorded division cohort. Where a rank is unavailable, the comparison shows the difference from the published division average; the white marker denotes equality. Percentage differences are percentage points (pp). Higher is not always better: fewer strikes absorbed is preferable. Missing benchmarks are not estimated.

StatMalcolmMalcolm comparisonDiv avgOtari comparisonOtari
SLpM4.28
38/81
3.98
-0.11 vs avgfew UFC fights
3.87
Str Acc53%
14/81
45.9%
+19.10 pp vs avgfew UFC fights
65%
Str Def52%
46/81
53.4%
-8.40 pp vs avgfew UFC fights
45%
SApM3.93
46/81
4.27
+0.80 vs avgfew UFC fights
5.07
KD Avg1.04
5/81few UFC fights
0.33
-0.33 vs avgfew UFC fights
0.00
TD/150.00
72/81
1.61
+3.39 vs avgfew UFC fights
5.00
TD Acc0% (0 of 3)
Not availablefew UFC fights
—
Not availablefew UFC fights
56% (5 of 9)
TD Def43% (8 of 14 conceded)
64/81
60.4%
Not availablefew UFC fights
100% (0 of 6 conceded)
Sub/150.00
60/81
0.47
-0.47 vs avg
0.00
Avg Fight Time7:11
Not available
—
Not available
15:00
Statistical Verdict
Wellmaker's knockdown rate ranks 5th of 81 bantamweights and his accuracy 14th, but his takedown defence ranks 64th. Tanzilovi's one UFC fight produced a 5.00 TD/15 pace, 65% accuracy and a perfect takedown defence — along with 5.07 strikes absorbed per minute.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

⚠ R3: single-fight sample for Malcolm Wellmaker

⚠ R1, R2, R3: single-fight sample for Otari Tanzilovi

Control Time per Round (sec)

Malcolm Wellmaker

  • First rounds are his: 0.5 knockdowns per R1 at 61% accuracy, with 52% of his R1 strikes going to the body.
  • Only the Ewing fight reached R3 — his accuracy fell to 43% that round.
  • No ground strikes in four UFC fights; 23% of his output comes in the clinch.

Otari Tanzilovi

  • Round rows come from his UFC debut against Shane Collins.
  • Control rose to 100 seconds in R2; he averaged 85 seconds per round.
  • About 30% of his strikes landed in the clinch — his entries end on the fence.
Critical Insight
Wellmaker's danger is concentrated in the first round; Tanzilovi's debut shows steady control minutes. The fight hinges on whether entries survive the first counter window.

Strike targeting

Malcolm

Head
40%
Body
47%
Legs
13%

Otari

Head
66%
Body
26%
Legs
8%

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

MalcolmOtari
77%Distance71%
23%Clinch29%
0%Ground0%

Share of significant strikes landed at distance, in the clinch and on the ground across each fighter's UFC rounds, weighted by strike volume.

04

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much
Open SpaceMalcolm owns it

1.04 KD/15 and 61% first-round accuracy when Tanzilovi shoots from distance

Pocket / ExchangesEven

4.28 vs 3.87 landed per minute — trades are viable for both

ClinchOtari owns it

5 of 9 takedowns on debut; about 30% of his strikes land in the clinch

GroundOtari owns it

85 seconds of control per round on debut; Diaz took Wellmaker down five times and choked him

Path to Victory

Malcolm Wellmaker

Make the initial entry miss, counter without overcommitting and recover a stable stance before the next shot — finish or steal rounds on damage.

Why they win
01
Knockdown rate

1.04 KD/15, 5th of 81 — Saaiman and Moutinho both fell in the first round.

02
Counter accuracy

53% accuracy, 61% in first rounds, when Tanzilovi shoots open.

03
Reach

71.5-inch reach — an end-of-strike tool at equal height.

04
Finishing history

8 finishes in 10 wins, six in R1 — the fight can end in one exchange.

05
Body attack

46% of his UFC strikes go to the body.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Primary route

    Make the initial entry miss, counter without overcommitting and recover stance.

  2. 2
    Takedown awareness

    Hand-fight on entries — Diaz landed 5 of 8.

  3. 3
    Range discipline

    Do not chase into bad angles — let the shots come to the counters.

Path to Victory

Otari Tanzilovi

Disguise level changes, stay connected through the first sprawl and turn control into strikes rather than letting Wellmaker reset at range.

Why they win
01
Takedown volume

5 of 9 takedowns in his debut — 5.00 per fifteen.

02
Takedown defence

Stuffed all six of Collins' attempts; Wellmaker has landed none of three.

03
Striking accuracy

65% in his debut — efficient when the fight stays in the pocket.

04
Youth

Four years younger.

05
Kick arsenal

Three of his seven knockouts came from kicks — spinning back kick, flying switch kick, body kick.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Primary route

    Disguise level changes, chain through the first sprawl, strike from top.

  2. 2
    Avoid telegraphing

    Wellmaker's first-round knockouts punish predictable entries.

  3. 3
    Win the strike count

    Collins out-landed him 76-58 — control alone did not bank the rounds.

Danger Zone

How Malcolm Wellmaker loses

  • Repeated takedowns accumulate control — Wellmaker has conceded 8 of 14 UFC attempts.

  • Diaz repeat — taken down five times and choked in R2.

  • Ewing repeat — out-pointed when the knockdowns do not come.

Danger Zone

How Otari Tanzilovi loses

  • The first reckless shot eats a counter — Wellmaker's 24-point KO bucket.

  • Sprawls and resets neutralise the takedowns — the debut rate fails to repeat.

  • Out-landed again — Collins beat him 76-58 on strikes despite the takedowns.

Matchup interpretation

The phase that changes the comparison

Wellmaker's knockdown production highlights the danger of approaching him carelessly. Tanzilovi's early wrestling numbers point to a route through repeated entries.

Counterargument

What would change the selection

Wellmaker's knockdown rate and Tanzilovi's takedown rate both come from short UFC careers, so neither converts cleanly into finish odds.

50
model win % each side
3 rounds

Distance and repeatability

The style contrast is clear. The open question is how Tanzilovi's pace holds up if repeated entries fail against a counter-puncher.

Conviction

Octagon experience

Four UFC bouts for Wellmaker and one for Tanzilovi — conviction stays at 4/10 despite the sharp stylistic contrast.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

05

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things
1

Malcolm Wellmaker's 1.04 KD/15 and first-round counters oppose Otari Tanzilovi's 5.00 TD/15 from his UFC debut — a sharp stylistic fork.

2

Model: Wellmaker 50% / Tanzilovi 50%, conviction 4/10. Method shares: Wellmaker 24 KO / 18 decision / 8 submission; Tanzilovi 6 KO / 32 decision / 12 submission.

3

Fair price +100 / +100 — compare any line to 50/50 before claiming value.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Wellmaker KO/TKO — 24%Wellmaker Decision — 18%Wellmaker Submission — 8%Tanzilovi KO/TKO — 6%Tanzilovi Decision — 32%Tanzilovi Submission — 12%

Each square = 1 model percentage point. Malcolm Wellmaker gold · Otari Tanzilovi orange · color opacity: 100% = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

UFC experience

One UFC bout for Tanzilovi, four for Wellmaker — caps conviction at 4/10.

KD/15 vs TD/15

1.04 knockdowns against 5.00 takedowns per fifteen — the stylistic fork.

TDDef gap

43% for Wellmaker vs 100% for Tanzilovi on six attempts — defines who initiates grappling.

Recent losses

Wellmaker's submission and decision losses show the paths opponents used.

Rate repeatability

Primary reversal: either headline rate fails to repeat on fight night.

Fight Scripts

0%
of simulations

The Saaiman Echo

Tanzilovi shoots into a counter — Wellmaker finishes standing in round one.

Scripted outcomes for Malcolm Wellmaker vs Otari Tanzilovi — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Malcolm Wellmaker win probability
0%
24%
18%
8%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Twenty-four points — first-round knockouts of Saaiman and Moutinho and 1.04 KD/15.

  • Eighteen points — the Ewing loss shows the decision path runs both ways.

  • Eight points — tail only; two regional rear-naked chokes, none in the UFC.

Otari Tanzilovi win probability
0%
6%
32%
12%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Six points — seven regional knockouts, none yet in the UFC.

  • Thirty-two points — the Collins debut still showed control-heavy decision equity.

  • Twelve points — a scramble finish if Wellmaker gives up position, as he did against Diaz.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round
R1
Malcolm
R2
Even
R3
Otari
29-28 Tanzilovi
R1 damage for Wellmaker, R2–R3 control for Tanzilovi
Modal inside the 32% decision bucket
29-28 Wellmaker
A knockdown steals R1 plus damage optics in R2
Live if counters land clean
30-27 Tanzilovi
Wrestling minutes compound in all three rounds
Primary wrestling decision script

Model and price

Malcolm Wellmaker

Freshness unverified
Model win probability
50%
Fair odds
+100
Reference quote
-205 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds
2.00
Estimated EV
-25.6%
Edge vs no-vig market
-14.7 pp

Otari Tanzilovi

Freshness unverified
Model win probability
50%
Fair odds
+100
Reference quote
+173 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds
2.00
Estimated EV
+36.5%
Edge vs no-vig market
+14.7 pp

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Malcolm Wellmaker

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 2.00 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Otari Tanzilovi

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 2.00 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Analyst price notes

Written against the prices of October 5.

Against a 50/50 model, Tanzilovi +173 is the plus-money side and Wellmaker −205 is not. Pick'em pricing would align with the model; this line does not. Conviction stays at 4/10.

Conviction
0
4/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

50/50 with no side favoured: Wellmaker's 1.04 KD/15 versus Tanzilovi's 5.00 TD/15 from his UFC debut. Short UFC careers on both sides cap confidence despite the stylistic contrast. Lean: Pick'em.

What backs the lean

  • Clear stylistic fork — counters vs chain wrestling.

  • Headline rates point in opposite directions.

  • Both fighters 10-2 with finish-heavy regional records.

What limits it

  • Tanzilovi's takedown rate comes from one UFC fight.

  • Wellmaker's knockdown rate rests on two early KOs in four bouts.

  • 43% TDDef for Wellmaker — wrestling can accumulate if counters miss.

  • The Collins loss shows wrestling volume alone did not win Tanzilovi the cards.

Final Assessment

Malcolm Wellmaker vs Otari Tanzilovi is a bantamweight main-card bout built on opposing scripts: Wellmaker lands 4.28 significant strikes per minute with 1.04 knockdowns per fifteen and no takedowns landed, while Tanzilovi brings 3.87 SLpM at 65% accuracy with 5.00 takedowns per fifteen and a perfect takedown defence from a single Octagon appearance against Shane Collins.

The model assigns each fighter 50% with conviction 4 out of 10 because both headline rates come from short UFC careers — four fights for Wellmaker, one for Tanzilovi. Method shares: Wellmaker 24 KO / 18 decision / 8 submission; Tanzilovi 6 KO / 32 decision / 12 submission. Fair moneyline is +100 on both sides.

The honest read: treat this as a stylistic coin flip — respect Wellmaker's early counter equity and Tanzilovi's wrestling chains at pick'em pricing, and do not read 1.04 KD/15 or 5.00 TD/15 as confident finish probabilities.

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