PRELIM · BANTAMWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan
Malcolm Wellmaker — Bantamweight fighter

Malcolm Wellmaker

10W2L
Explosive First-Round Finisher
…
VS
Otari Tanzilovi — Bantamweight fighter

Otari Tanzilovi

10W2L
Volume Wrestler
…

Zero takedowns against four and a half, in the smallest cage in the promotion

BantamweightUFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada, United StatesOctober 10, 2026UFC Apex — 25ft cage
01

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

The widest grappling mismatch at UFC Vegas 122, and it is not close. Malcolm Wellmaker attempts zero takedowns per fifteen minutes and defends 47% of them; Otari Tanzilovi attempts 4.50 — the highest figure at either October event — and defends 86%. Four months ago Juan Diaz took Wellmaker down and submitted him in the second round, which means the blueprint is not a projection, it is a recent result. What makes the fight live is the other half of Wellmaker's profile: a knockdown average of 0.67 in an average first round with 66.7% accuracy, six career first-round finishes, and Octagon knockouts of Cameron Saaiman in 1:59 and Kris Moutinho in 2:37. He is one of the most extreme early-or-nothing fighters in this series — his average UFC fight time is 6:15 and his accuracy falls to 43.1% by the third round. The favourite's caveat is equally sharp: every number in Tanzilovi's rate line comes from a single Octagon appearance in June 2026 that he lost by unanimous decision. Model: Tanzilovi 60% / Wellmaker 40%, conviction 5/10.

Malcolm Wellmaker
Attribute
Otari Tanzilovi
32
Age
28
5'10" (70")
Height
5'10" (70")
71.5"
Reach
Not published
Explosive striker — six first-round finishes
Fighting Style
Kickboxer turned volume wrestler
Augusta, Georgia, United States
Origin
Telavi, Georgia
0.00
Takedowns / 15
4.50
47%
Takedown Defence
86%
6:15
Avg Fight Time
15:00

Identical listed height at 5'10", with no reach figure published for Tanzilovi anywhere — so this page claims no reach differential at all. What that leaves is a pure style question in a room built for one of the two answers. Wellmaker is a stand-up fighter with no wrestling in either direction; Tanzilovi is a converted kickboxer who now attempts 4.50 takedowns per fifteen minutes. Neither man can win the fight by being bigger.

Venue Factor
The UFC Apex uses a 25-foot cage rather than the 30-foot event Octagon — five fewer feet of retreat in every direction, which taxes range fighters and rewards anyone who wants a back against the fence. For a wrestler attempting 4.50 takedowns per fifteen minutes against a 47% sprawl, it is the most favourable venue on the calendar.
02

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Malcolm Wellmaker, UFC bantamweight

Malcolm Wellmaker

Pro Record
10-2-0
UFC Record
2-2 across three scored Octagon bouts
Streak
Two consecutive losses
Finish Rate
80% (8 of 10 wins) — 6 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 2 decisions
Avg Fight Time
6:15 in the UFC
Chin · Untested by strikes — never knocked outSOS · Mixed — two Octagon knockouts and two lossesExplosive first-round finisher

A late-blooming knockout artist whose UFC run has split cleanly in half. Wellmaker arrived at 30 via a first-round Contender Series knockout of Adam Bramhald, then finished Cameron Saaiman in 1:59 and Kris Moutinho in 2:37 — both in the opening round — to go 2-0 and briefly look like the division's most dangerous prospect. Ethyn Ewing then out-pointed him over three rounds in November 2025, and Juan Diaz submitted him in the second round in May 2026. That is 0-2, and the second loss is the one that matters here: he was taken down and finished by a grappler. His numbers explain why. He attempts zero takedowns per fifteen minutes, defends only 47%, and has an average UFC fight time of 6:15 — the profile of a fighter who wins in the first five minutes or does not win at all. What is genuinely elite is the power: a knockdown average of 0.67 in an average first round and 66.7% accuracy in the same frame.

Otari Tanzilovi, UFC bantamweight

Otari Tanzilovi

Pro Record
10-2-0
UFC Record
0-1 across one scored Octagon bout
Streak
Coming off a decision loss on debut
Finish Rate
70% (7 of 10 wins) — 7 KO/TKO, 0 submissions, 3 decisions
Avg Fight Time
15:00 in the UFC
Chin · Never stoppedSOS · Georgian and UAE regional, plus one Octagon boutVolume wrestler

A Georgian kickboxer who reinvented himself as a wrestler and lost his UFC debut doing it. Tanzilovi built a 9-1 regional record on knockouts — five of his seven stoppages came in the opening round on Georgian Fighting Championship and UAE Warriors cards — then dropped a Contender Series split decision to Josias Musasa in September 2024, won a decision at Fury FC, and made his Octagon debut against Shane Collins in June 2026. He lost a unanimous decision, and the numbers that came out of it are extraordinary: 4.50 takedowns per fifteen minutes, 86% takedown defence, 69% striking accuracy — the highest figure on this card — and an average fight time of exactly 15:00. He is now a fighter with the highest takedown volume at UFC Vegas 122 and one Octagon appearance to prove it.

Malcolm Wellmaker
0 dealt · 0 absorbed
Knockdown Exchange
KD dealt vs absorbed
Otari Tanzilovi
0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Malcolm Wellmakersignature weapons

The Opening-Round BombA knockdown average of 0.67 in an average first round — the second-highest figure on this card — with 66.7% accuracy and six first-round finishes
×6
Body Work48.1% of his Round-1 offence and 59.1% of his third-round offence lands on the body, the highest body share of any fighter at this event
×10

Otari Tanzilovisignature weapons

The Takedown Chain4.50 takedowns per fifteen minutes — the highest figure at UFC Vegas 122 — against an opponent who defends 47% and attempts none of his own
×3
69% AccuracyThe highest striking accuracy on this card, from a fighter with seven career knockouts and five first-round finishes on the regional circuit
×7

Malcolm Wellmaker

L
Juan Diaz
Submission
RR2 (4:08)
UFC FN: Allen vs. Costa — May 16, 2026
L
Ethyn Ewing
Decision — Unanimous
RR3
UFC 322 — Nov 15, 2025
W
Kris Moutinho
KO/TKO
RR1 (2:37)
UFC FN: Usman vs. Buckley — Jun 14, 2025
W
Cameron Saaiman
KO/TKO
RR1 (1:59)
UFC FN: Machado Garry vs. Prates — Apr 26, 2025
W
Adam Bramhald
KO/TKO
RR1 (2:29)
Dana White's Contender Series S8 — Aug 27, 2024
Pattern

Three first-round knockouts, then two losses — and the losses tell you exactly how to beat him. Ethyn Ewing out-pointed him over fifteen minutes in November 2025 and Juan Diaz submitted him in the second round in May 2026. Both fights went past the five-minute mark, which is precisely where his 66.7% first-round accuracy falls to 50.0% and then 43.1%.

Otari Tanzilovi

L
Shane Collins
Decision — Unanimous
RR3
UFC FN: Kape vs. Horiguchi 2 — Jun 20, 2026
W
Guillermo Torres
Decision — Unanimous
RR3
Fury FC 101 — Feb 7, 2025
L
Josias Musasa
Decision — Split
RR3
Dana White's Contender Series S8 — Sep 10, 2024
W
Khikmatillo Abdullaev
Decision — Unanimous
RR3
Octagon 39 — Jan 21, 2023
W
Eduardo Dinis do Nascimento
TKO
RR3 (3:04)
UAE Warriors 33 — Sep 17, 2022
Pattern

One win and two losses across his three highest-level fights, all on the scorecards, and he has never been hurt in any of them. The Shane Collins decision on his June 2026 debut is the only Octagon evidence that exists, and it produced the most extreme takedown-volume figure at this event alongside a defeat.

Malcolm Wellmaker

Win Methods
Wins by Round

Otari Tanzilovi

Win Methods
Wins by Round
Critical Insight
Two knockout-heavy charts and both close exactly — Wellmaker 6 knockouts, 2 submissions and 2 decisions in 10 wins; Tanzilovi 7 knockouts and 3 decisions in 10. Neither man has a single submission win. What the round columns show is that both of these fighters are regional first-round finishers who have not translated it: Wellmaker has six first-round wins and Tanzilovi five, and between them they are 2-3 in the UFC. The relevant asymmetry is not in the charts at all — it is that one of them has a documented way to survive past minute five and the other has an average fight time of 6:15.

Common Opponents

OpponentMalcolmOtari
Juan Diaz (blueprint)L· Submission R2 4:08 (May 2026)—never faced
The template against Wellmaker and it is four months old: a grappler took him down and finished him. Tanzilovi attempts 4.50 takedowns per fifteen minutes
Cameron Saaiman (level proxy)W· KO/TKO R1 1:59 (Apr 2025)—never faced
Wellmaker's best win, and one of two first-round Octagon knockouts that make him dangerous for exactly five minutes
Josias Musasa and Shane Collins (level proxies)—never facedL· split decision and L · unanimous decision
Tanzilovi has lost both of his highest-level fights on the cards without ever being hurt — his losses look very different from his opponent's
03

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Striking

SLpM 25% · StrAcc 30% · StrDef 30% · SApM 15%

0
Malcolm
0
Otarismall sample

Three points, and they come from accuracy alone: Tanzilovi lands 69% of his significant strikes — the highest figure at this event — against Wellmaker's 55%. Output and damage absorbed are near-identical (4.58 to 4.20 landed, 4.23 to 4.20 absorbed) and Wellmaker defends two points better. Tanzilovi's flag is severe: his entire rate line derives from a single fifteen-minute Octagon appearance that he lost.

Grappling

TD/15 25% · TDAcc 25% · TDDef 30% · Sub/15 20%

0
Malcolm
0
Otari

The widest gauge gap on this card and the entire fight. Wellmaker attempts zero takedowns per fifteen minutes and defends 47%; Tanzilovi attempts 4.50 and defends 86%. That is not a stylistic difference, it is a hole — and Juan Diaz already exploited exactly it, submitting Wellmaker in the second round in May 2026.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

0.0
Malcolm
0
Otari

Eighteen and a half points, almost all of it grappling. On the feet these two are close to level; the moment the fight touches the fence they are not in the same sport.

Cardio

Fight time · rounds contested · pace curve

0
Malcolmsmall sample
0
Otarismall sample

Both flagged for thin data and the gap is still wide. Wellmaker averages 6:15 per Octagon appearance — his two wins lasted 1:59 and 2:37 — and his accuracy collapses from 66.7% in the first round to 43.1% in the third. Tanzilovi averages exactly 15:00 because his only UFC fight went the full distance, and his regional record includes four three-round decisions.

Overall

(Technical + Cardio) / 2

0.0
Malcolm
0
Otari

Twenty points on the gauges against a twenty-point model line. They agree, which is unusual on this card — and both are built on very little data for the favourite.

MetricMalcolmOtari
Avg Fight Time6:15 (UFC)15:00 (UFC)small sample
Pace Tier4.58 SLpM at 55% accuracy4.20 SLpM at 69% accuracysmall sample
R1 Knockdown Avg0.67Not found — no scored roundssmall sample
Takedowns / 150.004.50 — highest on this card
Takedown Defence47%86%

Archetype Base Rate

Explosive First-Round Finisher 40%60% Volume Wrestler

No archetype base-rate row exists for this pairing · No historical archetype rate is applied. The 60/40 rests on 4.50 takedowns per fifteen minutes against a 47% sprawl and no offensive wrestling at all, in the smallest cage the promotion uses, against a fighter submitted by exactly that approach four months ago. It is capped by a 0.67 first-round knockdown average, six career first-round finishes, and the fact that everything supporting the favourite comes from one Octagon fight he lost.

Malcolm WellmakerOtari Tanzilovi

Bantamweight

· 41 fighters
StatMalcolmMalcolm rankDiv avgOtari rankOtari
SLpM4.58—~4.12—4.20
Str Acc55%—~46%—69%
Str Def52%—~56%—50%
SApM4.23—~3.88—4.20
TD/150.00—~1.74—4.50
TD Def47%—~63%—86%
Sub/150.00 (2 career subs)—~0.58—0.00 (0 career subs)
Career Finish Rate80% (8 of 10)———70% (7 of 10)
UFC Record2-2———0-1
Scored UFC Rounds5———0
Avg Fight Time6:15———15:00
Statistical Verdict
Both fighters sit above the bantamweight baseline on accuracy — Wellmaker by nine points and Tanzilovi by twenty-three — and both sit below it on striking defence. The two rows that decide the fight are the takedown rows. Tanzilovi's 4.50 attempts per fifteen minutes is nearly three times the divisional average and Wellmaker's 0.00 is the lowest possible; Tanzilovi's 86% takedown defence is twenty-three points above baseline and Wellmaker's 47% is sixteen below it. Every rate on this table carries a flag, and the two that matter most point the same way.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

⚠ R2, R3: single-fight sample for Malcolm Wellmaker

⚠ R1, R2, R3: single-fight sample for Otari Tanzilovi

Control Time per Round (sec)

Malcolm Wellmaker

  • The first round is a different fighter: 66.7% accuracy and a 0.67 knockdown average against 50.0% and 43.1% in the rounds after it.
  • The most committed body attacker at this event — 48.1% of his Round-1 offence and 59.1% of his third-round offence lands downstairs.
  • Control time of 10, 14 and 37 seconds. He does not hold anyone anywhere, and he attempts zero takedowns per fifteen minutes.
  • His Round-2 and Round-3 rows rest on a single scored round apiece. The whole sample is five rounds across three Octagon bouts.

Otari Tanzilovi

  • No round-by-round row exists for Otari Tanzilovi: his June 2026 debut postdates the database snapshot, so nothing above is estimated.
  • What the verified twelve-bout log shows instead: seven knockouts, five of them in the opening round on Georgian and UAE regional cards, and four three-round decisions.
  • His UFC.com line — 4.50 takedowns per fifteen minutes, 86% takedown defence, 69% accuracy, 15:00 average fight time — is one fifteen-minute fight rendered as arithmetic, and he lost it.
  • He has never been stopped in twelve professional fights, and his two highest-level losses were both decisions.
Critical Insight
One five-round table and one empty one, and between them the fight is clear enough. Wellmaker's chart shows a fighter whose accuracy falls twenty-four points from the first round to the third and whose body-shot share climbs to 59.1% — a fatigue signature, on a sample of one round. Tanzilovi's contribution is a career log with five regional first-round knockouts and a UFC debut that lasted exactly fifteen minutes. The fight is therefore a race: Wellmaker's equity is almost entirely in the opening five minutes and Tanzilovi's accrues in the twenty after them.

Strike Targeting (career avg)

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage. Fighters without UFC samples are omitted rather than shown as 0%.

Range Profile — where the minutes go

MalcolmOtari · N/A
74%Distance—
26%Clinch—
0%Ground—

Share of significant-strike volume by range from UFC career data. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.

04

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much
Open SpaceOtari owns it

69% accuracy against 55% at near-identical output — but Tanzilovi's figure rests on one fifteen-minute fight

Pocket / ExchangesMalcolm owns it

A 0.67 first-round knockdown average and six career first-round finishes against a man who has never been stopped

ClinchOtari owns it

4.50 takedowns per fifteen minutes against a 47% sprawl, in the smallest cage the promotion uses

GroundOtari owns it

Wellmaker was submitted in the second round four months ago and attempts zero takedowns himself; Tanzilovi defends 86%

Path to Victory

Malcolm Wellmaker

Land in the first five minutes. His average fight time is 6:15 for a reason.

Why they win
01
A 0.67 first-round knockdown average

The second-highest figure at either October event, at 66.7% accuracy, with six career first-round finishes.

02
Two Octagon knockouts inside 2:37

Cameron Saaiman at 1:59 and Kris Moutinho at 2:37 — both in the opening round, both in 2025.

03
Higher output

4.58 significant strikes landed per minute against 4.20, with two points more striking defence.

04
Tanzilovi lost his UFC debut

A unanimous decision to Shane Collins in June 2026, and it is the only Octagon evidence about him that exists.

05
Never knocked out

Twelve professional fights and one stoppage loss, and that a submission.

06
The most committed body attack on the card

48-59% of his offence lands downstairs, which is the right target against a wrestler who has to close.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Throw everything in the first five minutes

    A 0.67 knockdown average and 66.7% accuracy. His entire career says the fight is won here or not at all.

  2. 2
    Sprawl and reset — do not scramble

    He was submitted from a scramble four months ago. Getting back to the feet matters more than winning position.

  3. 3
    Keep it in the centre

    The Apex cage is 25 feet and a 47% sprawl cannot afford to have its back anywhere near the fence.

  4. 4
    Attack the body early, not late

    48.1% of his Round-1 offence already goes there. Doing it when he is fresh is worth more than doing it when he is tired.

  5. 5
    Punish the level change

    Tanzilovi has to close distance to wrestle, and closing distance against a 0.67 knockdown average is expensive.

  6. 6
    Contingency — if Plan A fails

    If the first round passes without a knockdown, he has to fight for position rather than the finish — his accuracy falls twenty-four points across the fight and he cannot outlast anyone.

Path to Victory

Otari Tanzilovi

Get him down. A 47% sprawl and zero offensive wrestling is the softest surface at this event.

Why they win
01
4.50 takedowns per fifteen minutes

The highest figure at UFC Vegas 122, against an opponent who defends 47% and attempts none.

02
86% takedown defence

Thirty-nine points better than Wellmaker, which removes any possibility of the fight being reversed.

03
69% striking accuracy

The highest single accuracy figure at this event, fourteen points clear of his opponent.

04
A 15:00 average fight time against 6:15

His only UFC fight went the distance; Wellmaker's two wins lasted 1:59 and 2:37.

05
The 25-foot Apex cage

The most favourable venue on the calendar for a high-volume takedown fighter.

06
Juan Diaz already showed the way

Wellmaker was taken down and submitted in the second round four months ago.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Level change early and often

    4.50 attempts per fifteen minutes against a 47% sprawl. There is no reason to spend time at range against a 0.67 knockdown average.

  2. 2
    Use the fence

    The Apex is 25 feet across and Wellmaker has no offensive wrestling to punish a tie-up.

  3. 3
    Do not trade in the opening round

    It is the only five minutes Wellmaker owns, and his knockdown average there is the second-highest at either October event.

  4. 4
    Make him fight past minute six

    His average UFC fight time is 6:15 and his accuracy falls from 66.7% to 43.1%. Time is the weapon.

  5. 5
    Use the 69% accuracy when he is tired

    It is the highest figure at this event and it is worth far more in the third round than in the first.

  6. 6
    Contingency — if Plan A fails

    If the takedowns are stuffed early, the answer is the clinch rather than open space — his striking defence is 50% and Wellmaker's power is real.

Danger Zone

How Malcolm Wellmaker loses

  • He is taken down in the first two minutes and never gets up, losing three rounds without landing the shot his whole game depends on.

  • The second round repeats May 2026 exactly — a takedown, a scramble, and a submission from a position he has no answer for.

  • His accuracy falls from 66.7% to 43.1% as it has before, and a 69%-accuracy striker out-lands him for ten minutes.

Danger Zone

How Otari Tanzilovi loses

  • He walks into the 0.67 knockdown average in the opening round, before a single takedown attempt has landed.

  • His 4.50 takedowns per fifteen turns out to be one performance rather than a skill, and he has no plan B at 50% striking defence.

  • He loses a second consecutive Octagon decision to a man he out-wrestled but could not out-score.

The whole fight in one row

Zero Against Four and a Half

Malcolm Wellmaker attempts zero takedowns per fifteen minutes and defends 47% of them. Otari Tanzilovi attempts 4.50 — the highest figure at UFC Vegas 122 — and defends 86%. That is a thirty-nine-point defensive gap and an infinite offensive one, and it is not theoretical: Juan Diaz submitted Wellmaker in the second round four months ago.

0.00 v 4.50
takedowns per 15 minutes
Wellmaker's average

Six Minutes and Fifteen Seconds

Malcolm Wellmaker's average UFC fight time is 6:15. His two Octagon wins lasted 1:59 and 2:37; his two losses went to the eighth minute and the full fifteen. His accuracy falls from 66.7% in the first round to 50.0% in the second and 43.1% in the third. He is one of the most extreme early-or-nothing profiles in this analysis series.

6:15
Wellmaker's average UFC fight time
Why the underdog is live

A 0.67 Knockdown Average

Across three scored first rounds Wellmaker averages 0.67 knockdowns — the second-highest figure at either October event — at 66.7% accuracy. He knocked out Cameron Saaiman in 1:59 and Kris Moutinho in 2:37. If the first five minutes belong to him, the fight is over before Tanzilovi's wrestling gets a chance to matter.

0.67
Wellmaker knockdowns per Round 1
The favourite's caveat

One Octagon Fight, and He Lost It

Every number in Otari Tanzilovi's rate line — the 4.50 takedowns, the 86% takedown defence, the 69% accuracy, the 15:00 average fight time — comes from a single UFC appearance in June 2026 that he lost by unanimous decision to Shane Collins. It is a coherent profile and it is one fight.

0-1
his UFC record
The venue tilt

The Smallest Cage in the Promotion

The Apex is 25 feet across. For a fighter attempting 4.50 takedowns per fifteen minutes against an opponent with a 47% sprawl and no offensive wrestling, five fewer feet of retreat in every direction is a direct and measurable upgrade.

The Five-Round Clock

Malcolm Wellmaker danger windowOtari Tanzilovi danger windowNeutral / contested
R1 · 0:00–5:00The only window that is his

A 0.67 knockdown average at 66.7% accuracy — his best figures by a distance — and six career first-round finishes including two in the Octagon. Tanzilovi has no scored round-by-round data at all; what exists is a regional log with five first-round knockouts of his own.

Critical Insight
One of the sharpest divides on the card. Wellmaker's equity is concentrated almost entirely in the opening five minutes: a 0.67 knockdown average, 66.7% accuracy, six career first-round finishes and two Octagon knockouts inside 2:37. After that his accuracy falls to 50.0% and then 43.1%, his body-shot share climbs to 59.1%, and both of his UFC losses happened. Tanzilovi's whole case is the twenty minutes after the first horn — 4.50 takedowns per fifteen against a 47% sprawl, in a 25-foot cage, with an average fight time of exactly 15:00. Roughly two-thirds of the underdog's equity is spent before minute six.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

05

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things
1

Otari Tanzilovi attempts 4.50 takedowns per fifteen minutes — the highest figure at UFC Vegas 122 — against a man who defends 47% and attempts none of his own.

2

Malcolm Wellmaker carries a 0.67 knockdown average in an average first round at 66.7% accuracy, and an average UFC fight time of 6:15. He was submitted in the second round four months ago.

3

Model: Tanzilovi 60% / Wellmaker 40%, conviction 5/10 — and every number supporting the favourite comes from one Octagon fight he lost.

100 Simulated Fights

Tanzilovi Decision — 34%Wellmaker KO/TKO — 31%Tanzilovi KO/TKO — 17%Tanzilovi Submission — 9%Wellmaker Decision — 7%Wellmaker Submission — 2%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. Malcolm Wellmaker gold · Otari Tanzilovi orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

The takedown mismatch

4.50 attempts per fifteen minutes against a 47% sprawl and 0.00 offensive wrestling — the widest grappling gap on this card.

The Juan Diaz blueprint

Wellmaker was taken down and submitted in the second round in May 2026. The template is four months old.

A 0.67 first-round knockdown average

The underdog's entire case, and a real one: six career first-round finishes and two Octagon knockouts inside 2:37.

Fight-time asymmetry

6:15 against 15:00, with Wellmaker's accuracy falling from 66.7% to 43.1% across the rounds.

The 25-foot Apex cage

The most favourable venue on the calendar for a high-volume takedown fighter.

One Octagon fight, and he lost it

Every figure supporting Tanzilovi comes from a single fifteen-minute appearance that ended in a unanimous-decision defeat.

Fight Scripts

0%
of simulations

The Wrestling Decides It

4.50 takedowns per fifteen minutes against a 47% sprawl, in a 25-foot cage, from a man whose only UFC fight lasted the full fifteen minutes. Wellmaker attempts no takedowns and has never had to fight off his back for three rounds. The most likely outcome and the least dramatic.

Scripted outcomes for Malcolm Wellmaker vs Otari Tanzilovi — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Malcolm Wellmaker win probability
0%
31%
7%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • The largest single bucket in the fight. Six career first-round finishes, a 0.67 knockdown average and 66.7% accuracy in the opening round, against a man who has to close distance to wrestle.

  • Deliberately tiny. Two decisions in ten career wins, an average UFC fight time of 6:15, and accuracy falling to 43.1% by the third round.

  • Two career submissions and 0.00 attempts per fifteen minutes. He was submitted himself four months ago; this is not a phase he wins.

Otari Tanzilovi win probability
0%
17%
34%
9%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Seven career knockouts, five of them in the opening round on the regional circuit, at 69% accuracy — the highest figure on this card. Mostly the late branch against a fading opponent.

  • The largest bucket on the page. 4.50 takedowns per fifteen minutes against a 47% sprawl, in a 25-foot cage, from a fighter whose only Octagon appearance lasted the full fifteen minutes.

  • Zero career submissions, and this bucket exists only because Wellmaker was submitted in the second round in May 2026 — the position will be available even if the finish is unfamiliar.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round
R1
Malcolm
R2
Otari
R3
Otari
29-28 Tanzilovi
Wellmaker takes the first on power; the wrestling takes the last two
The most likely card in a fight that reaches them
30-27 Tanzilovi
The takedowns land from the opening bell against a 47% sprawl
Live — the grappling gap is the widest on this card
29-28 Wellmaker
He wins the first two on damage and survives a third he has fought once
Rare — he has two decisions in ten professional wins

Moneyline

Malcolm Wellmaker
Not posted
Otari Tanzilovi
Not posted

No book has published a line for this bout at the time of writing. Converting our own probabilities gives fair prices of Otari Tanzilovi -150 from 60% and Malcolm Wellmaker +150 from 40% — model outputs, not quotes. Live prices appear in the hero above once a market opens.

Props: model vs market

PropOddsImplied %Model %FairEdgeVerdict
Best Value
Wellmaker inside the first round is the honest contrarian ticket: a 0.67 knockdown average, six career first-round finishes and two Octagon knockouts inside 2:37, against a wrestler who must close distance to start his own fight. Twenty-two percent of simulations end there. The structural read is Tanzilovi by decision at 34%, which is the largest bucket and reflects a fighter with zero career submissions converting dominant position into cards rather than finishes.
Conviction
0
5/10

A clear structural lean built on the widest grappling gap at this event and a four-month-old blueprint — Juan Diaz took Wellmaker down and submitted him in May 2026, and Tanzilovi attempts 4.50 takedowns per fifteen minutes into a 47% sprawl, in the smallest cage the promotion uses. The two things holding it at five are large: Wellmaker's 0.67 first-round knockdown average with six career first-round finishes, and the fact that every figure supporting Tanzilovi derives from a single Octagon appearance he lost by unanimous decision. Lean: Otari Tanzilovi.

What backs the lean

  • 4.50 takedowns per fifteen minutes against a 47% takedown defence and zero offensive wrestling.

  • 86% takedown defence — thirty-nine points clear — meaning the grappling can only go one way.

  • 69% striking accuracy, the highest single figure at this event.

  • A 15:00 average fight time against 6:15, with Wellmaker fading twenty-four accuracy points across three rounds.

  • The 25-foot Apex cage, the best possible venue for a takedown-volume fighter.

  • Juan Diaz already submitted Wellmaker from exactly this position four months ago.

What limits it

  • A 0.67 first-round knockdown average and 66.7% opening-round accuracy.

  • Six career first-round finishes, including Octagon knockouts at 1:59 and 2:37.

  • Every number supporting Tanzilovi comes from one Octagon fight, which he lost by unanimous decision.

  • Tanzilovi has no round-by-round data at all in the database.

  • Higher output and two points more striking defence to Wellmaker.

  • Tanzilovi has zero career submissions, so a dominant top position still has to be converted on the cards.

Final Assessment

In roughly sixty of one hundred simulations Otari Tanzilovi wins, and in thirty-four of those he wins on the scorecards. The mechanism is the widest grappling gap at UFC Vegas 122 applied in the promotion's smallest cage: 4.50 takedowns per fifteen minutes against a 47% sprawl belonging to a man who attempts none of his own and was submitted from that exact position by Juan Diaz four months ago. Nine more end with a submission he has never actually completed, purely because the position will be there.

In the other forty, the first five minutes settle it. Malcolm Wellmaker averages 0.67 knockdowns per opening round at 66.7% accuracy, owns six career first-round finishes, and knocked out Cameron Saaiman in 1:59 and Kris Moutinho in 2:37. Thirty-one of those simulations are Wellmaker knockouts, twenty-two of them in the first round — before a single takedown has had time to change the fight.

The uncomfortable truth about this page is that the favourite's entire statistical case comes from one Octagon appearance he lost, and the underdog's entire case expires after five minutes. On October 10 at the Apex — Tanzilovi 60% / Wellmaker 40%, conviction 5/10, with two-thirds of the underdog's equity gone by minute six.

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