Darya Zheleznyakova vs Alice Pereira: analysis & prediction

PRELIMS · WOMEN'S BANTAMWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan
Darya Zheleznyakova — Women's Bantamweight fighter

Darya Zheleznyakova

“Iron Lady”
10W3L
Volume Striker
VS
Alice Pereira — Women's Bantamweight fighter

Alice Pereira

“Golden Girl”
6W1L
Counter Striker

Zheleznyakova's volume against Pereira's power

Women's BantamweightMeta APEX, Las Vegas, NevadaOctober 10, 202625ft Octagon (Meta APEX)

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Zheleznyakova wants a steady run of scoring exchanges: land the combination, then leave before the return. Pereira needs fewer, heavier moments, meeting entries with her longer reach and turning a counter into damage the way she stopped Hailey Cowan. If the exchanges stay clean, the busier woman banks rounds; if Zheleznyakova lingers to chase a finish, one counter can rewrite the card.

Paths that change the fight

  • Darya ZheleznyakovaOut-land her by a clear margin in every round, as she did Rendon (57–25) and Mullins (99–64), and keep the late rounds off the fence — her UFC losses came when opponents got her down.
  • Alice PereiraMake the exchanges count rather than trying to out-work her: counter from the longer reach, find the knockdown, and keep the strike count close enough that the heavier shots win the rounds.
What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 2/10
  • Pereira's rates come from 24 minutes of UFC time.
  • Zheleznyakova has no UFC knockdowns; all five career knockouts came before 2024.

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Darya Zheleznyakova

Freshness unverified
Model win probability
50%
Fair odds
+100
Reference quote
+114 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds
2.00

Alice Pereira

Freshness unverified
Model win probability
50%
Fair odds
+100
Reference quote
-133 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds
2.00
Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Sources and data limitations

Career statistics and fight results through September 2026. Composite scores, probabilities and fair prices are MMA Analytics model outputs.

Model methodology
Read the evidenceInspect prices and assumptions
01

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Zheleznyakova is one of the busiest strikers at women's bantamweight and has never been knocked down in the UFC; her losses came when opponents got her to the mat. Pereira, 20, is the heavier hitter — a 6-1 pro record, including a knee knockout of Hailey Cowan in April — but has only two UFC fights. Both have fought Montserrat Rendon: Zheleznyakova won clearly, Pereira lost a split decision. Model lean: 50/50, conviction 2/10.

Darya Zheleznyakova
Attribute
Alice Pereira
30
Age
Pereira is ten years younger20
5' 9"+1" Zheleznyakova
Height
5' 8"
68"
Reach
+3" Pereira71"
41"
Leg Reach
+2.5" Pereira43.5"
10-3-0
Pro Record
6-1-0
2-2 (4 bouts)
UFC Record
1-1 (2 bouts)
5 of 10 wins
Finishes
5 KO/TKO, 1 submission
Volume boxer
Fighting Style
Counter striker

Zheleznyakova is an inch taller, but Pereira has the longer limbs: 71 inches of reach against 68 and 43.5 inches of leg reach against 41. Zheleznyakova is 30; Pereira is 20 and turns 21 in December.

Venue Factor
The 25-foot APEX Octagon shortens the space Zheleznyakova works in — 93% of her UFC strikes land at distance — and brings the fence closer for the clinch exchanges where her UFC losses were decided. Both women have won in this cage: Pereira knocked out Hailey Cowan here in April, and Zheleznyakova beat Montserrat Rendon here on her UFC debut.
02

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Darya Zheleznyakova in her UFC bout against Montserrat Rendon

Darya Zheleznyakova

Pro Record
10-3-0
UFC Record
2-2 — W Rendon, L Perez, W Mullins, L Croden
Streak
Lost her last — unanimous decision to Melissa Croden (Apr 18, 2026)
Finish Rate
50% (5 of 10 wins) — 5 KO/TKO, 0 submissions
Avg Fight Time
12:13 (4 UFC bouts)
Chin · Sturdy — 0 UFC knockdowns absorbed; stopped by strikes once, in 2022SOS · UFC mid-tableVolume boxer

A boxer first and a European K-1 bronze medallist, Zheleznyakova went 8-1 before the UFC, five of the wins by knockout. She is 2-2 in the Octagon, and each result has followed the grappling. She out-landed Montserrat Rendon 57–25 and Melissa Mullins 99–64 and won both on all three cards — the Mullins win avenging a 2022 ground-and-pound stoppage. She was submitted by Ailin Perez with an arm-triangle at 3:52 of the first round, and lost to Melissa Croden, who out-landed her 69–41 and landed 4 takedowns and 5:12 of control. Across 49 UFC minutes she lands 4.13 significant strikes per minute (4th of 15 in the division) and defends 64% (2nd), with 30% of her output going to the body. The weakness is on the mat: opponents have taken her down 12 times in 24 attempts and controlled her for 15 of her 49 minutes.

Alice Pereira reacts in disbelief after her second-round knockout at the Meta APEX in April 2026 as the referee tends to her fallen opponent

Alice Pereira

Pro Record
6-1-0
UFC Record
1-1 — L Rendon (split decision), W Cowan (KO/TKO)
Streak
Won her last — knee knockout of Hailey Cowan at 4:24 of Round 2 (Apr 4, 2026)
Finish Rate
5 KO/TKO and 1 submission on a 6-1 record
Avg Fight Time
12:12 (2 UFC bouts)
Chin · Untested — 0 knockdowns absorbed; never finishedSOS · Early UFC careerCounter striker

Pereira's listed pro record is 6-1. She turned pro in August 2023 and, before the UFC, won a five-round decision over Samara Santos for the Cage Masters bantamweight title. She debuted in the UFC at 19 as the youngest woman on the roster and lost a split decision to Montserrat Rendon, who out-landed her 45–37 while landing none of five takedown attempts. In April she knocked out Hailey Cowan with a knee at 4:24 of the second round, after Cowan had taken her down twice and controlled her for 4:16 of the fight's 9:24. Across 24 UFC minutes she lands 2.83 and absorbs 3.11 significant strikes per minute with one knockdown, and she has stopped 6 of 8 takedown attempts. She has not landed a UFC takedown (0 of 3) or attempted a submission.

Darya Zheleznyakova
0 dealt · 0 absorbed
Knockdown Exchange
Knockdowns dealt vs absorbed.
Alice Pereira
0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Darya Zheleznyakovasignature weapons

Punches (KO/TKO)Latest: Marie Loiseau, R1 1:27 (Apr 2023). None yet in the UFC
×5

Alice Pereirasignature weapons

KneeHailey Cowan, R2 4:24 (Apr 2026)
×1
Strikes (KO/TKO)All before the UFC and all inside two rounds; two ended in 15 seconds or less (2024)
×4
Rear-naked chokeRaquel de Andrade, R1 1:04 — pro debut (Aug 2023)
×1

Darya Zheleznyakova

L
Melissa Croden
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: ufc

R3 (5:00)
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott, Winnipeg — Apr 18, 2026
W
Melissa Mullins
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: ufc

R3 (5:00)
UFC on ABC: Hill vs. Rountree Jr., Baku — Jun 21, 2025
L
Ailin Perez
Submission — Arm-triangle choke

Opponent context: veteran

R1 (3:52)
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis, Paris — Sep 28, 2024
W
Montserrat Rendon
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: ufc

R3 (5:00)
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas, Las Vegas — Mar 23, 2024 (UFC debut)
W
Marie Loiseau
KO/TKO — Punches
R1 (1:27)
Ares FC 14 — Apr 7, 2023
Pattern

Results have alternated since her debut. Her two UFC wins were the fights she out-landed by wide margins (57–25, 99–64); her two losses came when opponents got her down — Perez took her down twice and choked her inside a round, and Croden landed 4 takedowns, 3 of them in Round 3, on the way to a 69–41 strike count.

Alice Pereira

W
Hailey Cowan
KO/TKO — Knee

Opponent context: ufc

R2 (4:24)
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan, Las Vegas — Apr 4, 2026
L
Montserrat Rendon
Decision — Split

Opponent context: ufc

R3 (5:00)
Noche UFC: Lopes vs. Silva, San Antonio — Sep 13, 2025 (UFC debut)
W
Samara Santos
Decision — Unanimous (five rounds)
R5 (5:00)
Cage Masters FC 2 — Dec 14, 2024 (bantamweight title)
W
Karla Lacerda
KO/TKO
R2 (1:13)
Qualify Combat 14 — Aug 31, 2024
Pattern

One UFC loss on the cards and one knockout, and both fights were close on the strike count (37–45 against Rendon, 32–31 against Cowan). What separated them was a single strike — the knee that ended the Cowan fight. Most of her wins before the UFC were finishes, four of them in the first round.

Darya Zheleznyakova

Win Methods
Wins by Round

Alice Pereira

Win Methods
Wins by Round
Critical Insight
Zheleznyakova's wins split evenly — five knockouts (two in Round 1, three in Round 2) and five decisions — and both of her UFC wins went to the cards. Pereira's listed record is 6-1. Her wins on file are mostly finishes inside two rounds, and her decision win was a five-round title fight. Neither has been knocked down in the UFC; Zheleznyakova's one stoppage loss by strikes came in 2022 against Mullins, whom she later beat.

Common Opponents

OpponentDaryaAlice
Montserrat RendonW· Decision — Unanimous (Mar 2024)L· Decision — Split (Sep 2025)
Zheleznyakova out-landed Rendon 57–25 but conceded 3 takedowns and 5:24 of control, and still won all three cards. Pereira kept the fight standing — Rendon landed none of five takedown attempts — and was out-landed 45–37. The fights were eighteen months apart.
03

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and UFC experience before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

SLpM 25% · StrAcc 30% · StrDef 30% · SApM 15%

0
Darya
0
Alicefew UFC fights

Zheleznyakova's volume (4.13 to 2.83 landed per minute) against Pereira's slightly better defence (67% to 64%) and lower absorption (3.11 to 3.38).

Grappling

TD/15 25% · TDAcc 25% · TDDef 30% · Sub/15 20%

0
Darya
0
Alicefew UFC fights

One UFC takedown between them in four attempts and no submission attempts. The gap is defence: Pereira has stopped 6 of 8, Zheleznyakova 12 of 24.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

0
Darya
0
Alicefew UFC fights

Close — Zheleznyakova's edge is volume, Pereira's is takedown defence.

MetricDaryaAlice
Landed / min4.132.83
Landed ÷ absorbed1.220.91few UFC fights
UFC knockdowns01few UFC fights
TDs conceded12 of 242 of 8
Reach68"71"

Archetype Base Rate

Volume Striker 50%50% Counter Striker

MMA Analytics model — this matchup · A true 50/50: Zheleznyakova's volume and experience against Pereira's knockdown power, reach and takedown defence.

Darya ZheleznyakovaAlice Pereira

Women's Bantamweight

· 15 fighters

Rank bars use the recorded division cohort. Where a rank is unavailable, the comparison shows the difference from the published division average; the white marker denotes equality. Percentage differences are percentage points (pp). Higher is not always better: fewer strikes absorbed is preferable. Missing benchmarks are not estimated.

StatDaryaDarya comparisonDiv avgAlice comparisonAlice
SLpM4.13
4/15
4.03
-1.20 vs avgfew UFC fights
2.83
Str Acc40%
13/15
48.4%
-11.40 pp vs avgfew UFC fights
37%
Str Def64%
2/15
58.5%
+8.50 pp vs avgfew UFC fights
67%
SApM3.38
8/15
3.03
+0.08 vs avgfew UFC fights
3.11
KD/150.00
-0.12 vs avg
0.12
+0.49 vs avgfew UFC fights
0.61
TD/150.31
12/15
1.56
-1.56 vs avgfew UFC fights
0.00
TD Acc100% (1 of 1)
Not availablefew UFC fights
—
Not availablefew UFC fights
0% (0 of 3)
TD Def50% (12 conceded of 24)
Not available
—
Not availablefew UFC fights
75% (2 conceded of 8)
Sub/150.00
-0.34 vs avg
0.34
-0.34 vs avg
0.00
Avg Fight Time12:13
Not available
—
Not available
12:12
Statistical Verdict
Zheleznyakova is one of the busiest strikers in a small division (4th of 15 for volume) with its second-best striking defence. Pereira lands less than the division average but hits harder: one knockdown in 24 minutes is 0.61 per 15 against a divisional 0.12. Both land below the division's 48.4% accuracy, and neither wrestles in a division that averages 1.56 takedowns per 15.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

⚠ R3: single-fight sample for Alice Pereira

Control Time per Round (sec)

Darya Zheleznyakova

  • Her busiest round is the second (24.3 landed), and it is where the body work shows up: 38% of her Round 2 output goes to the body, against 18% in Round 1.
  • The grappling problem grows late. Opponents average 2:11 of control on her in third rounds, and Croden's 3 takedowns in 4 attempts in Round 3 decided that fight.
  • No knockdowns scored and none absorbed in 49 UFC minutes; 93% of her output lands at distance.

Alice Pereira

  • Two UFC fights: two first rounds, two second rounds and one third round, so each figure can move a lot in a single fight.
  • Her first rounds are her busiest — 19.0 landed at 41.8%, with 42% of it to the body.
  • Round 2 is her lowest-volume round (9.0 landed at 28.6%) and still where the knockout came: the knee that ended the Cowan fight at 4:24, after Cowan had controlled her for 3:09 of that round.
Critical Insight
Zheleznyakova's volume builds into Round 2 and holds through Round 3; Pereira lands about as much as she does in the first round and relies on fewer, heavier strikes after that. The danger for Zheleznyakova is late clinch and mat time — third-round control averages 2:11 against her — while Pereira's danger is being out-worked over three rounds, as she was against Rendon.

Strike targeting

Darya

Head
68%
Body
30%
Legs
2%

Alice

Head
72%
Body
25%
Legs
3%

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

DaryaAlice
93%Distance90%
6%Clinch7%
1%Ground3%

Share of significant strikes landed at distance, in the clinch and on the ground across each fighter's UFC rounds, weighted by strike volume.

04

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much
Open SpaceDarya owns it

4.13 landed per minute (4th of 15) against 2.83; 93% of her output comes at distance

Pocket / ExchangesAlice owns it

Pereira's 0.61 knockdowns per 15 and the knee that stopped Cowan; Zheleznyakova has no UFC knockdowns

ClinchEven

Zheleznyakova has conceded 12 of 24 takedowns, but Pereira is 0 for 3; the Cowan knee came at close range

GroundEven

Neither woman has attempted a UFC submission; Zheleznyakova was submitted by Perez in 2024

Path to Victory

Darya Zheleznyakova

Out-land her by a clear margin in every round, as she did Rendon (57–25) and Mullins (99–64), and keep the late rounds off the fence — her UFC losses came when opponents got her down.

Why they win
01
Volume

4.13 significant strikes landed per minute (4th of 15 in the division) against 2.83.

02
Exchange ratio

1.22 strikes landed for every one absorbed, against Pereira's 0.91.

03
Experience

Four UFC fights and 49 minutes against two fights and 24; three of her four have gone fifteen minutes.

04
Durability

0 knockdowns absorbed in the UFC; stopped by strikes once in 13 pro fights, and she beat that opponent in the rematch.

05
Body work

30% of her landed strikes go to the body — 38% in Round 2.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Jab, body, leave

    Build combinations from range, where 93% of her output lands, and exit before Pereira sets her feet.

  2. 2
    Win every round on the count

    Her UFC wins came with margins of 32 and 35 strikes; close fights have gone the other way.

  3. 3
    Stay off the fence late

    Opponents' control on her nearly doubles in Round 3, and the 25-foot cage brings the fence closer.

  4. 4
    Respect the knee

    Cowan was finished by a knee at close range — don't lead with the head into the clinch.

Path to Victory

Alice Pereira

Make the exchanges count rather than trying to out-work her: counter from the longer reach, find the knockdown, and keep the strike count close enough that the heavier shots win the rounds.

Why they win
01
Power

1 UFC knockdown in 24 minutes (0.61 per 15, division average 0.12) on a 6-1 record built mostly on stoppages.

02
Reach

71 inches against 68, and 43.5 inches of leg reach against 41.

03
Takedown defence

6 of 8 UFC takedown attempts stopped, against 12 of 24 conceded by Zheleznyakova.

04
Striking defence

67% defence and 3.11 absorbed per minute.

05
Youth

20 years old, listed 6-1, and 1-1 in the UFC.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Counter off the reach

    Three inches of reach and two and a half of leg reach — make Zheleznyakova walk into range.

  2. 2
    Pick the moment

    One knockdown changed the Cowan fight; output is not her route.

  3. 3
    Keep the count close

    A 30-strike deficit loses the cards; the Rendon split came from an eight-strike gap.

  4. 4
    Knees when she closes

    When Zheleznyakova steps in to throw, the clinch knee is the shot that finished Cowan.

Danger Zone

How Darya Zheleznyakova loses

  • Pereira lands the one clean counter — a single knee ended the Cowan fight after she had lost most of the grappling.

  • The fight drifts into the clinch late: third-round control averages 2:11 against her, and Croden won that way.

  • Volume without damage — no UFC knockdowns, so a close fight goes to judges who may favour Pereira's heavier shots.

Danger Zone

How Alice Pereira loses

  • Out-worked at range — Rendon out-landed her 45–37 and took the split decision, and Zheleznyakova lands 4.13 per minute.

  • Waiting for the perfect counter and losing rounds on output: she averages 9.0 landed in second rounds.

  • Zheleznyakova's defence (64%, second in the division) holds and the counter never lands clean.

Montserrat Rendon

A common opponent, two outcomes

Zheleznyakova out-landed Rendon 57–25 and won all three cards despite giving up 3 takedowns; Pereira stopped all five of Rendon's takedowns and still lost a split decision on a 45–37 count. The fights were eighteen months apart, so it is a pointer, not proof.

57–25
Zheleznyakova's strike count against Rendon
Zheleznyakova's weak spot

Her losses come on the mat

Opponents have taken Zheleznyakova down 12 times in 24 attempts, and both UFC losses came that way. Pereira is 0 for 3 on UFC takedowns, so the weakness may never be tested.

0 of 3
Pereira's UFC takedown attempts landed
Power vs volume

One heavy strike against a hundred light ones

Pereira's knockdown rate is five times the division average and all six of her stoppages came inside two rounds. Zheleznyakova has thrown 503 significant strikes in the UFC without a knockdown.

0.61
Pereira's knockdowns per 15 (division average 0.12)
Conviction

Experience gap

Four UFC fights and 49 minutes against two fights and 24 — and a ten-year age gap. That is why the model stays at 50/50 with conviction 2/10.

Counterargument

What would change the selection

A Pereira knockdown in the first ten minutes, or a Zheleznyakova strike count as wide as the Rendon and Mullins fights. Either would decide it.

50
model win % each side

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

05

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things
1

Zheleznyakova wins fights on the strike count and loses them on the mat — and Pereira has yet to land a UFC takedown.

2

Pereira doesn't need volume: one knee ended the Cowan fight in this cage after Cowan had controlled much of it.

3

A true coin flip in the model — conviction 2/10, fair +100 on both sides. The strike-count margin is the thing to watch.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Zheleznyakova KO/TKO — 12%Zheleznyakova Decision — 30%Zheleznyakova Submission — 8%Pereira KO/TKO — 18%Pereira Decision — 26%Pereira Submission — 6%

Each square = 1 model percentage point. Darya Zheleznyakova gold · Alice Pereira orange · color opacity: 100% = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Volume against power

4.13 landed per minute and no UFC knockdowns against 2.83 and one knockdown in 24 minutes.

Rendon as a yardstick

Zheleznyakova beat her by 32 strikes; Pereira lost a split to her eighteen months later.

Grappling that may not come

Zheleznyakova has conceded 12 UFC takedowns, but Pereira has not landed one.

Sample size

24 UFC minutes for Pereira — the main reason conviction is 2/10.

Reach

Pereira has three inches of reach and two and a half of leg reach.

Fight Scripts

0%
of simulations

Zheleznyakova on the count

She out-lands Pereira by a clear margin, as she did Rendon and Mullins, and wins 29-28 or 30-27.

Scripted outcomes for Darya Zheleznyakova vs Alice Pereira — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Darya Zheleznyakova win probability
0%
12%
30%
8%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Twelve points. Five career knockouts, all before the UFC; she has no knockdowns in 49 UFC minutes and Pereira has never been knocked down.

  • Thirty points, the single largest outcome — both of her UFC wins came on the cards after out-landing opponents by 32 and 35 strikes.

  • Eight points — a tail outcome. No submission wins and no UFC submission attempts.

Alice Pereira win probability
0%
18%
26%
6%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Eighteen points — 0.61 knockdowns per 15 and a 6-1 record built mostly on stoppages inside two rounds, including the knee that finished Cowan.

  • Twenty-six points. Her UFC fights have been close on the count (37–45, 32–31); she needs the heavier shots to take the rounds.

  • Six points — one career submission, a rear-naked choke in her 2023 pro debut.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round
R1
Darya
R2
Alice
R3
Darya
29-28 Zheleznyakova
Out-lands her in Rounds 1 and 3; Pereira's heavier shots take the second
Most likely card inside the 30-point decision share
30-27 Zheleznyakova
Volume wins every round
Inside the same 30 points
29-28 Pereira
Two rounds decided by the cleaner, heavier strikes
Inside Pereira's 26-point decision share

Model and price

Darya Zheleznyakova

Freshness unverified
Model win probability
50%
Fair odds
+100
Reference quote
+114 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds
2.00
Estimated EV
+7.0%
Edge vs no-vig market
+5.0 pp

Alice Pereira

Freshness unverified
Model win probability
50%
Fair odds
+100
Reference quote
-133 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds
2.00
Estimated EV
-12.4%
Edge vs no-vig market
-5.0 pp

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Darya Zheleznyakova

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 2.00 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Alice Pereira

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 2.00 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Analyst price notes

Written against the prices of October 5.

The model has no side, so Zheleznyakova +114 is the plus-money price and Pereira −133 is not. If there is value beyond that, it is in the method: Zheleznyakova by decision is 30% (fair +233) and Pereira by KO/TKO 18% (fair +456). At conviction 2/10, small stakes or none.

Conviction
0
2/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

No side. Zheleznyakova's volume (4.13 per minute) and four UFC fights against Pereira's knockdown power, reach and takedown defence — with only 24 UFC minutes behind Pereira's numbers. Conviction 2/10. Lean: Pick'em.

What backs the lean

  • Opposite strengths: volume and defence for Zheleznyakova, power and reach for Pereira.

  • Rendon beat Pereira and lost to Zheleznyakova — but eighteen months apart.

  • Zheleznyakova's weakness (12 of 24 takedowns conceded) meets an opponent who has not landed a UFC takedown.

  • Neither woman has been knocked down in the UFC.

What limits it

  • Pereira's rates come from 24 minutes of UFC time.

  • Zheleznyakova has no UFC knockdowns; all five career knockouts came before 2024.

  • Zheleznyakova lost her last fight and has alternated wins and losses in the UFC.

  • A 25-foot cage adds clinch time, where Zheleznyakova's losses have come.

Final Assessment

Zheleznyakova vs Pereira puts the busier striker against the more dangerous one. Zheleznyakova lands 4.13 significant strikes per minute, 4th of 15 at women's bantamweight, defends 64% and has never been knocked down in the UFC; her two UFC losses came on the mat — an arm-triangle against Ailin Perez, and a Croden fight decided by 4 takedowns and 5:12 of control. Pereira, 20, is 6-1, knocked out Hailey Cowan with a knee in April and has stopped 6 of 8 UFC takedown attempts, but her UFC record is two fights and 24 minutes long.

The model makes it 50/50 with conviction 2/10: Zheleznyakova 30 decisions, 12 KO/TKO, 8 submissions; Pereira 26 decisions, 18 KO/TKO, 6 submissions. The fair price is +100 on both sides.

The swing factor is the strike count. Zheleznyakova's wins came with 30-plus-strike margins; Pereira's loss came on an eight-strike deficit. If Zheleznyakova builds that kind of gap she wins on the cards; if the count stays close, Pereira's heavier shots and knockout threat decide it. The shared opponent is a pointer, not a verdict — Zheleznyakova beat Rendon comfortably in 2024, and Pereira lost a split to her in 2025.

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