Darya Zheleznyakova vs Alice Pereira – UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan Fight Analytics & Prediction

PRELIM · WOMEN'S BANTAMWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan

Darya Zheleznyakova

10W3L

Volume Distance Striker

…

Alice Pereira

7W1L

Young Power Puncher

…

A twenty-year-old with five knockouts against the loudest round any woman produces on this card

Women's BantamweightUFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada, United StatesOctober 10, 2026UFC Apex — 25ft cage

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

A clean styles fight with one unusually useful piece of evidence attached. Both women have fought Montse Rendon: Darya Zheleznyakova beat her by unanimous decision in March 2024 and Alice Pereira lost to her by split decision on the Noche UFC card in September 2025. That is the only direct comparison anywhere on this card outside the main event, and it favours the older woman. The supporting numbers agree without being emphatic. Zheleznyakova lands 4.13 significant strikes per minute to Pereira's 2.83 and out-lands her in every scored round — 19.7 to 14.0 in the first, 29.5 to 10.0 in the second, 21.5 to 13.0 in the third — with her second-round figure the highest single-round output by any woman at either October event. Pereira's case is that she is twenty years old, five years younger than anyone else competing at either card, carries five knockouts in seven wins including an eleven-second finish, defends 75% of takedowns to Zheleznyakova's 50%, and has three scored Octagon rounds in total, all of them predating her April 2026 knockout of Hailey Cowan. Model: Zheleznyakova 53% / Pereira 47%, conviction 4/10.

Darya Zheleznyakova

Attribute

Alice Pereira

Age

10 years20

5'9" (69")

Height

5'8" (68")

68"

Reach

+3" Pereira71"

Volume distance striker

Fighting Style

Power puncher — five knockouts in seven wins

Saint Petersburg, Russia — fights out of Paris

Origin

State of Bahia, Brazil

4.13 SLpM

Output

2.83 SLpM

50%

Takedown Defence

75%

Coming off a decision loss to Melissa Croden

Recent Form

Coming off a second-round knockout of Hailey Cowan

An inch of height to Zheleznyakova and three inches of reach to Pereira, which is an unusual split and means neither woman gets a clean range advantage. Both fight almost entirely at distance — 93.2%, 100% and 90.7% for Zheleznyakova, 85.7%, 100% and 100% for Pereira — with clinch shares in single figures and no ground work at all. The practical consequence is that the fight will look like a kickboxing match, and the fighter throwing 4.13 significant strikes per minute has a structural advantage over the one throwing 2.83 unless the harder shots land.

Venue Factor
The UFC Apex uses a 25-foot cage rather than the 30-foot event Octagon — five fewer feet of retreat in every direction, which taxes range fighters and rewards anyone willing to walk forward. For two pure distance strikers with no wrestling between them, it mostly means fewer places to reset and slightly more forced exchanges — which favours the harder puncher marginally and the busier fighter substantially.

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Darya Zheleznyakova

Pro Record

10-3-0

UFC Record

2-2 across three scored Octagon bouts

Streak

Coming off a unanimous-decision loss

Finish Rate

50% (5 of 10 wins) — 5 KO/TKO, 0 submissions, 5 decisions

Avg Fight Time

12:13 in the UFC

Chin · Solid — never knocked out in the UFCSOS · Established UFC bantamweightVolume distance striker

A Russian bantamweight fighting out of Paris who arrived from Ares FC in March 2024 and has gone 2-2 since. The wins are unanimous decisions over Montse Rendon and Melissa Mullins; the losses are a first-round submission to Ailín Pérez in September 2024 and a unanimous decision to Melissa Croden in April 2026 — and Croden fights at UFC Edmonton a week after this card. The rate line describes a pure distance striker: 4.13 significant strikes landed per minute behind 64% striking defence, with 93.2%, 100% and 90.7% of her offence landing at range across the three rounds and essentially zero control time in any of them. Her second round is her loudest at 29.5 significant strikes landed — the highest single-round output on this card by any woman.

Alice Pereira

Pro Record

7-1-0

UFC Record

1-1 across one scored Octagon bout

Streak

Coming off a second-round knockout of Hailey Cowan

Finish Rate

86% (6 of 7 wins) — 5 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 1 decision

Avg Fight Time

12:12 in the UFC

Chin · Untested — never stoppedSOS · Brazilian regional plus two Octagon boutsYoung power puncher

Twenty years old, 7-1, and already carrying five knockouts — including an eleven-second finish of Hosana Enny in July 2024. Pereira ran through the Brazilian regional circuit in a single year, won a five-round Cage Masters decision over Samara Santos in December 2024, then lost a split decision to Montse Rendon on the Noche UFC card in September 2025 before knocking out Hailey Cowan in the second round in April 2026. Her rate line is thin and defensive: 2.83 significant strikes landed per minute — the lowest in this bout — behind 67% striking defence and 75% takedown defence, both the better figures here. She is the youngest fighter competing at either October event by five years.

Darya Zheleznyakova

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Knockdown Exchange

KD dealt vs absorbed

Alice Pereira

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Darya Zheleznyakovasignature weapons

The Second-Round Surge29.5 significant strikes landed in an average second round — the highest single-round output by any woman at either October event

×5

Pure Distance Work93.2%, 100% and 90.7% of her offence lands at range across the three rounds, with essentially zero control time in any of them

×10

Alice Pereirasignature weapons

The Power RightFive knockouts in seven wins, including an eleven-second finish of Hosana Enny and a second-round stoppage of Hailey Cowan in April 2026

×5

The Defensive Shell67% striking defence and 75% takedown defence — both the better figures in this bout — from a fighter who has never been stopped

×7

Darya Zheleznyakova

Melissa Croden

Decision — Unanimous

RR3

UFC FN: Burns vs. Malott — Apr 18, 2026

Melissa Mullins

Decision — Unanimous

RR3

UFC FN: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. — Jun 21, 2025

Ailín Pérez

Submission

RR1 (3:52)

UFC FN: Moicano vs. Saint Denis — Sep 28, 2024

Montse Rendon

Decision — Unanimous

RR3

UFC FN: Ribas vs. Namajunas — Mar 23, 2024

Marie Loiseau

KO/TKO

RR1 (1:27)

Ares FC 14 — Apr 7, 2023

Pattern

Two wins and two losses across four Octagon bouts, and the pattern is legible: she beats fighters who stand in front of her and loses to anyone who can change the phase or out-work her. Ailín Pérez submitted her in the first round; Melissa Croden out-pointed her over three. The Montse Rendon and Melissa Mullins decisions are both wins over strikers, which is exactly what she is facing here.

Alice Pereira

Hailey Cowan

KO/TKO

RR2 (4:24)

UFC FN: Moicano vs. Duncan — Apr 4, 2026

Montse Rendon

Decision — Split

RR3

Noche UFC: Lopes vs. Silva — Sep 13, 2025

Samara Santos

Decision — Unanimous

RR5

Cage Masters FC 2 — Dec 14, 2024

Karla Thais

KO/TKO

RR2 (1:13)

Qualify Combat 14 — Aug 31, 2024

Hosana Enny

KO/TKO

RR1 (0:11)

Dubai Fight 2 — Jul 27, 2024

Pattern

Six wins and a split-decision loss, with the most recent result the most important — a second-round knockout of Hailey Cowan in April 2026 that is not reflected in any of the round-by-round data on this page. Her only defeat came against Montse Rendon at nineteen years old. Five of her seven wins are knockouts and one of them took eleven seconds.

Darya Zheleznyakova

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Alice Pereira

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Critical Insight
Two charts pulling in opposite directions and both closing exactly — Zheleznyakova 5 knockouts and 5 decisions in 10 wins, Pereira 5 knockouts, 1 submission and 1 decision in 7. Pereira's 86% finish rate against Zheleznyakova's 50% is the widest gap on the page, and neither woman has a single submission attempt recorded in the Octagon. The round columns show the thing the rate lines hide: Zheleznyakova has five career decision wins and Pereira has one, which means the older fighter has a well-rehearsed way to win a fifteen-minute fight and the younger one has essentially never needed it.

Common Opponents

Opponent	Darya	Alice
Montse Rendon	W· Unanimous decision (Mar 2024)	L· Split decision (Noche UFC, Sep 2025)
The only shared opponent on this card outside the main event, and the cleanest single argument in the bout: Zheleznyakova won clearly where Pereira lost narrowly
Ailín Pérez (level proxy)	L· Submission R1 3:52 (Sep 2024)	—never faced
Zheleznyakova's only stoppage loss, and it came from a grappler — Pereira attempts zero takedowns per fifteen minutes
Melissa Croden (also on the October calendar)	L· Unanimous decision (Apr 2026)	—never faced
Croden fights Chelsea Chandler at UFC Edmonton a week after this card; she out-pointed Zheleznyakova over three rounds in April

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Striking

SLpM 25% · StrAcc 30% · StrDef 30% · SApM 15%

Darya

Alicesmall sample

Four points, and they are volume. Zheleznyakova lands 4.13 significant strikes per minute against 2.83 and is three points more accurate at 40% to 37%; Pereira defends three points better at 67% and absorbs slightly less. Both accuracy figures are poor by divisional standards, which is why the output gap carries the column. Pereira's flag is the sample — her rate line comes from a single scored Octagon bout.

Grappling

TD/15 25% · TDAcc 25% · TDDef 30% · Sub/15 20%

Darya

Alice

Two very low scores, because neither woman wrestles. Zheleznyakova attempts 0.31 takedowns per fifteen minutes and Pereira zero; the only meaningful figure is defensive, where Pereira's 75% is twenty-five points better than Zheleznyakova's 50%. That 50% is not academic — Ailín Pérez submitted her in the first round in September 2024.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

Darya

Alice

A point apart, which is honest. These are two strikers with modest accuracy and almost no grappling between them, and the fight will be decided on volume, power and the ten years separating them.

Cardio

Fight time · pace curve · rounds contested

Darya

Alicesmall sample

Zheleznyakova's, on evidence rather than on age. She averages 12:13 per Octagon appearance across three scored bouts, and her output holds at 19.7, 29.5 and 21.5 landed. Pereira's average fight time is nearly identical at 12:12 but rests on one Octagon bout, and her single scored second round shows output falling to 10.0 at 23.8% accuracy — the lowest accuracy figure in this analysis series.

Overall

(Technical + Cardio) / 2

0.0

Darya

Alice

Three and a half points, mapping onto a six-point model line. Neither the gauges nor the projection see much between these two, and the shared opponent is doing most of the work.

Metric	Darya	Alice
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	12:13 (UFC)	12:12 (UFC)small sample
Pace Tier	4.13 SLpM at 40% accuracy	2.83 SLpM at 37% accuracysmall sample
Peak Round Output	29.5 landed in an average R2	14.0 landed in an average R1
Takedown Defence	50%	75%
Scored UFC Rounds	7	3

Archetype Base Rate

Volume Distance Striker 53%47% Young Power Puncher

No archetype base-rate row exists for this pairing · No historical archetype rate is applied. The 53/47 rests on the shared opponent — a clear decision win against a split-decision loss — plus an output advantage that holds in every scored round and more than twice the Octagon experience. It is capped by ten years of age, a 71-inch reach against 68, five knockouts in seven wins, and the fact that Pereira's most recent and most impressive result postdates every row of data on this page.

Darya ZheleznyakovaAlice Pereira

Women's Bantamweight

· 24 fighters

Stat	Darya	Darya rank	Div avg	Alice rank	Alice
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	4.13	—	~3.64	—	2.83
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	40%	—	~44%	—	37%
Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit.	64%	—	~56%	—	67%
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	3.38	—	~3.94	—	3.11
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	0.31	—	~1.66	—	0.00
TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed.	50%	—	~60%	—	75%
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	0.00	—	~0.53	—	0.00
Career Finish Rate	50% (5 of 10)	—	—	—	86% (6 of 7)
Age	30	—	—	—	20
UFC Record	2-2	—	—	—	1-1
Scored UFC Rounds	7	—	—	—	3

Statistical Verdict
Zheleznyakova is above the divisional baseline on output and striking defence and ten points below it on takedown defence — the row Ailín Pérez already exploited. Pereira is well below baseline on output and accuracy and comfortably above it on both defensive figures, though every one of her rows carries a small-sample flag. The bottom of the table is the honest summary: an 86% finish rate against 50%, ten years of age, and seven scored Octagon rounds against three.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

⚠ R1, R2, R3: single-fight sample for Alice Pereira

Control Time per Round (sec)

Darya Zheleznyakova

Her second round is the loudest five minutes any woman produces at either October event: 29.5 significant strikes landed at 43.1% accuracy, with 100% of it at distance.
Control time of 13, 0 and 1 seconds across the three rounds. She does not clinch and she does not wrestle — 0.0% of her offence lands on the ground in any frame.
The target map shifts steadily to the body: 18.6% in the first round, 40.7% in the second, 44.2% in the third, with leg strikes at zero throughout.
Seven scored rounds across three Octagon bouts. Her April 2026 loss to Melissa Croden is partially reflected; the sample is real but thin.

Alice Pereira

Her entire round table rests on one scored Octagon bout — every row reads sampleSize 1 — and her April 2026 knockout of Hailey Cowan postdates the snapshot entirely.
The single scored second round is the concerning one: 10.0 significant strikes landed at 23.8% accuracy, the lowest single-round accuracy figure in this analysis series.
Almost no control time and no ground work: 0, 0 and 19 seconds across the three rounds, with 100% of her second- and third-round offence at distance.
What the career log shows instead: five knockouts in seven wins, including an eleven-second finish of Hosana Enny and a second-round stoppage of Hailey Cowan.

Critical Insight
One thin table and one thinner one, and the gap between them is wide enough to matter anyway. Zheleznyakova out-lands Pereira in all three scored rounds and by a factor of nearly three in the second — 29.5 to 10.0 — while both women fight almost exclusively at distance with no control time worth recording. The caveat is severe: Pereira's rows are one round each and were produced at nineteen, before the knockout that changed her trajectory. What the tables cannot show is that five of her seven career wins ended early, and that is the entire reason this is 53/47 rather than 65/35.

Strike Targeting (career avg)

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Range Profile — where the minutes go

DaryaAlice

95%Distance95%

5%Clinch5%

0%Ground0%

Share of significant-strike volume by range from UFC career data. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much

Open SpaceDarya owns it

4.13 significant strikes per minute against 2.83, with 93-100% distance work on both sides

Pocket / ExchangesAlice owns it

Five knockouts in seven wins including an eleven-second finish, against a fighter with 64% striking defence

ClinchAlice owns it

Barely contested — Pereira puts 14.3% of her Round-1 offence there against Zheleznyakova's 5.1%, and neither uses it much

GroundAlice owns it

75% takedown defence against 50%, and Zheleznyakova has already been submitted in the first round by a grappler

Path to Victory

Darya Zheleznyakova

Out-work her from range. She out-lands Pereira in every scored round and by nearly three to one in the second.

Why they win

She beat the shared opponent that Pereira lost to

A unanimous decision over Montse Rendon against a split-decision defeat — the only direct comparison on this card outside the main event.

4.13 significant strikes per minute against 2.83

And she out-lands Pereira in every scored round, by nearly three to one in the second.

The loudest round on the card

29.5 significant strikes landed in an average second round — the highest by any woman at either October event.

Seven scored Octagon rounds against three

Four UFC bouts against two, and five career decision wins against one.

An inch of height

Small, but it means Pereira's three inches of reach do not come with a size advantage.

Five career knockouts of her own

Half her wins came by strike, including a first-round finish at Ares FC.

The gameplan

1
Keep the output above twenty a round
She out-lands Pereira in every scored frame; the only way that stops being decisive is if she stops doing it.
2
Work the body
40-44% of her later-round offence already lands there, and it is the fastest way to slow a twenty-year-old with one career decision.
3
Do not stand still in the pocket
Five knockouts in seven wins, one in eleven seconds. Volume from range, not exchanges.
4
Take the second round decisively
Her output peaks at 29.5 there and Pereira's scored second round is 10.0 at 23.8% accuracy.
5
Respect the reach on the way in
Three inches means the entry has to be behind a jab rather than a step forward.
6
Contingency — if Plan A fails
If she is hurt, the answer is distance and movement — Pereira attempts zero takedowns and cannot chase her down on the mat.

Path to Victory

Alice Pereira

Land one clean shot. Five of her seven wins ended early and one took eleven seconds.

Why they win

Ten years younger

Twenty years old — five years younger than anyone else competing at either October event.

An 86% career finish rate

Five knockouts in seven wins, including an eleven-second stoppage and a second-round finish of Hailey Cowan in April 2026.

Three inches of reach

71 inches against 68, in a fight that will be contested almost entirely at distance.

75% takedown defence against 50%

Twenty-five points better, against a woman already submitted in the first round by Ailín Pérez.

67% striking defence

Three points better than her opponent and eleven above the divisional baseline.

Her best result postdates all the data

The Hailey Cowan knockout in April 2026 is not in any table on this page.

The gameplan

1
Raise the volume
2.83 significant strikes per minute loses rounds to anyone. She has to throw more without giving up the 67% defence.
2
Use the three inches
She is the longer fighter in a bout contested almost entirely at range — the jab is the shot that makes her power available.
3
Look for the finish
Five of seven wins ended early and she has one career decision. The cards are not where her record says she wins.
4
Attack early
Her one scored first round is her most accurate frame at 34.1%, and her second is her worst at 23.8%.
5
Stay off the fence
The Apex is 25 feet and Zheleznyakova throws 29.5 a round when she has a stationary target.
6
Contingency — if Plan A fails
If she is down two rounds on volume, the third is where her only control time appears — she has to make it a fight rather than a points exchange.

Danger Zone

How Darya Zheleznyakova loses

She is caught by the power that has ended five of seven fights, having been dropped once in the Octagon already.
She lands 4.13 a minute at 40% accuracy and none of it registers, losing close rounds to the harder single shots.
Ten years shows up in the third round against a twenty-year-old who has been to a five-round fight.

Danger Zone

How Alice Pereira loses

She is out-landed by nearly three to one in the middle round and loses a clear decision without ever being hurt.
Her 2.83 significant strikes per minute is simply not enough to win rounds against a volume striker at distance.
She repeats the Montse Rendon fight — competitive, close, and lost on the cards to a busier opponent.

The most useful line on the page

One Shared Opponent, One Clear Answer

Both women have fought Montse Rendon. Darya Zheleznyakova beat her by unanimous decision in March 2024; Alice Pereira lost to her by split decision on the Noche UFC card in September 2025. It is the only direct comparison available and it points one way — though eighteen months separate the two results and Pereira was nineteen years old for hers.

W v L

against Montse Rendon

The youngest fighter at either event

Twenty Years Old

Alice Pereira is twenty — five years younger than anyone else competing at UFC 332 or UFC Vegas 122 — and she is 7-1 with five knockouts, including an eleven-second finish. She has also had exactly three scored Octagon rounds, and in one of them she landed at 23.8% accuracy, the lowest single-round figure in this analysis series.

years old

Zheleznyakova's second

The Loudest Round by Any Woman on the Card

In an average second round Darya Zheleznyakova lands 29.5 significant strikes — the highest single-round output by any female fighter at either October event, and 15 more than Pereira produces in her best frame. She does it at 43.1% accuracy with zero control time, which is what a pure distance striker looks like.

29.5

Zheleznyakova sig. strikes, average R2

Zheleznyakova's one hole

Fifty Percent Takedown Defence

Zheleznyakova defends only 50% of takedowns — ten points below the divisional baseline — and Ailín Pérez submitted her in the first round in September 2024 because of it. The reason it may not matter here is that Alice Pereira attempts zero takedowns per fifteen minutes and has one submission in seven wins.

50%

Zheleznyakova's takedown defence

The simplest read

Nobody Is Wrestling

Zheleznyakova attempts 0.31 takedowns per fifteen minutes and Pereira zero. Both submission averages are 0.00. Between them they land 93-100% of their offence at distance. This is a kickboxing match with small gloves, and the model should be read as a striking projection.

The Five-Round Clock

Darya Zheleznyakova danger windowAlice Pereira danger windowNeutral / contested

R1 · 0:00–5:00Pereira's best frame

Her single scored first round shows 14.0 landed at 34.1% — modest, but it is her most accurate and most productive frame, and five of her seven career wins are knockouts. Zheleznyakova lands 19.7 at 42.4% with 13 seconds of control.

Critical Insight
A clock decided in the middle. Pereira's best measured frame is the first, where her accuracy peaks at 34.1% and where two of her five knockouts landed; Zheleznyakova's is the second, where she produces 29.5 significant strikes against Pereira's 10.0 at 23.8% accuracy — the widest single-round gap at UFC Vegas 122. The third is close on the numbers and open on the argument, because ten years of age difference is a real thing and Pereira has been to a five-round fight while Zheleznyakova has not. Roughly half the underdog's equity sits in the first five minutes.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things

Both women have fought Montse Rendon: Zheleznyakova beat her by unanimous decision, Pereira lost to her by split decision. It is the only direct comparison on this card outside the main event.

Zheleznyakova out-lands Pereira in every scored round and by nearly three to one in the second — 29.5 to 10.0, the widest single-round gap at UFC Vegas 122.

Model: Zheleznyakova 53% / Pereira 47%, conviction 4/10 — capped by ten years of age and a 20-year-old whose best win postdates every table on this page.

100 Simulated Fights

Zheleznyakova Decision — 37%Pereira Decision — 25%Pereira KO/TKO — 20%Zheleznyakova KO/TKO — 16%Pereira Submission — 2%Zheleznyakova Submission — 0%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. Darya Zheleznyakova gold · Alice Pereira orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

The shared opponent

Zheleznyakova beat Montse Rendon by unanimous decision; Pereira lost to her by split decision eighteen months later.

The output gap

4.13 significant strikes per minute against 2.83, holding in all three scored rounds and peaking at 29.5 against 10.0 in the second.

Ten years of age

Pereira is twenty — five years younger than anyone else at either October event — and her best result is the most recent one.

An 86% finish rate against 50%

Five knockouts in seven wins including an eleven-second stoppage, against a woman dropped once in the Octagon.

Defensive figures

Pereira defends 67% of strikes and 75% of takedowns against 64% and 50% — both better, both from one Octagon bout.

Sample depth

Seven scored rounds against three, and four UFC bouts against two. Every uncertainty here sits on the underdog's side.

Fight Scripts

of simulations

The Volume Wins Rounds

Zheleznyakova out-lands Pereira in every round — 19.7 to 14.0, 29.5 to 10.0, 21.5 to 13.0 — from pure distance, and takes a clear decision. She beat the shared opponent that Pereira lost to, and she has more than twice the Octagon rounds.

Scripted outcomes for Darya Zheleznyakova vs Alice Pereira — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Darya Zheleznyakova win probability

16%

37%

KO/TKODECSUB

Five career knockouts including a first-round finish at Ares FC, but none in the UFC. Most of this bucket is a late stoppage rather than a clean shot.
The largest bucket on the page and the shape of her two Octagon wins — she out-lands opponents from distance and lets the cards do the rest.
Zero career submissions and 0.00 attempts per fifteen minutes. Empty because the skill is absent, not because the model is being polite.

Alice Pereira win probability

20%

25%

KO/TKODECSUB

Five knockouts in seven wins — an 86% finish rate — including an eleven-second stoppage and a second-round finish of Hailey Cowan five months ago. The largest finishing bucket in the bout.
One career decision in seven wins, but a five-round one, and her defensive numbers are the better pair here. It requires her to raise an output of 2.83 significant strikes per minute.
One career submission and 0.00 attempts per fifteen minutes — against a woman who defends 50% of takedowns and has already been tapped once.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round

Darya

Alice

29-28 Zheleznyakova

The volume takes the first two; Pereira takes the third on power and youth

The most likely card, and the shape of her Rendon and Mullins wins

30-27 Zheleznyakova

She out-lands her in all three rounds from range

Live — the measured output gap is more than two to one in the second

29-28 Pereira

Two close rounds decided by the harder shots

Her path, and it requires her to raise her output above 2.83 a minute

Moneyline

Darya Zheleznyakova

Not posted

Alice Pereira

Not posted

No book has published a line for this bout at the time of writing. Converting our own probabilities gives fair prices of Darya Zheleznyakova -113 from 53% and Alice Pereira -113 from 47% — model outputs, not quotes, and close to a true pick'em. Live prices appear in the hero above once a market opens.

Props: model vs market

Prop	Odds	Implied %	Model %	Fair	Edge	Verdict

Best Value
Pereira by knockout at 20% is the outcome most likely to be under-priced: five knockouts in seven wins, an eleven-second finish on her record, a second-round stoppage of Hailey Cowan five months ago, and an opponent with 64% striking defence who has been dropped in the Octagon. The market will read the shared opponent and the volume gap. The structural read is the fight going the distance at 62%, which reflects two pure distance strikers with no wrestling and no submission attempts between them.

Conviction

4/10

A narrow lean carried mostly by one shared opponent and one output gap. Zheleznyakova beat Montse Rendon clearly where Pereira lost to her narrowly, and she out-lands Pereira in every scored round with a second-round figure that is the highest by any woman at either October event. What holds this at four is everything on the other side: Pereira is twenty years old, five years younger than anyone else competing, has five knockouts in seven wins including an eleven-second finish, defends better in both columns, and produced her best career result in April 2026 — after every row of data on this page was recorded. Lean: Darya Zheleznyakova.

What backs the lean

A unanimous-decision win over Montse Rendon, whom Pereira lost to.
4.13 significant strikes landed per minute against 2.83, out-landing her in all three scored rounds.
29.5 significant strikes in an average second round — the highest by any woman at either October event.
Seven scored Octagon rounds against three, and five career decision wins against one.
An inch of height, so the reach gap does not come with a size gap.
Five career knockouts of her own — she is not defenceless in an exchange.

What limits it

Ten years younger, and the youngest fighter at either October event.
An 86% career finish rate with five knockouts in seven wins, one in eleven seconds.
Three inches of reach in a fight contested almost entirely at distance.
75% takedown defence against 50% — and Zheleznyakova has already been submitted in a first round.
67% striking defence against 64%, with less damage absorbed.
Her second-round knockout of Hailey Cowan in April 2026 appears in none of the data on this page.

Final Assessment

In roughly fifty-three of one hundred simulations Darya Zheleznyakova wins, and in thirty-seven of those she wins on the scorecards. The mechanism is volume from distance: she out-lands Alice Pereira in every scored round — 19.7 to 14.0, 29.5 to 10.0, 21.5 to 13.0 — with a second-round figure that is the highest by any woman at either October event. She also beat Montse Rendon clearly where Pereira lost to her narrowly, which is the only direct comparison available anywhere on this card outside the main event.

In the other forty-seven, twenty years old wins. Alice Pereira has five knockouts in seven wins, one of them in eleven seconds and the most recent a second-round stoppage of Hailey Cowan in April 2026 that appears in none of the data on this page. She defends 67% of strikes and 75% of takedowns, owns three inches of reach, and is five years younger than anyone else competing at either event. Twenty of those simulations are her knockouts.

The honest framing is that the older woman has more evidence and the younger one has more upside, and the evidence is three rounds deep on one side. On October 10 at the Apex — Zheleznyakova 53% / Pereira 47%, conviction 4/10, with 62 of 100 outcomes reaching the cards.

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