Matheus Camilo vs Jai Herbert – UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan Fight Analytics & Prediction

CO-MAIN · LIGHTWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan

Matheus Camilo

“Jaguar”

11W3L

Grappling Entries

Jai Herbert

“Black Country Banger”

14W6L1D

Range Striker

Camilo's takedowns against Herbert's reach and first-round power

LightweightMeta APEX, Las Vegas, NevadaOctober 10, 202625ft Octagon (Meta APEX)

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Camilo has to reach the clinch before Herbert sets his range, closing behind a credible striking setup and staying attached after the first sprawl. Herbert wants straight shots from the end of his longer reach, early exits off the fence and a restart from distance every time Camilo changes levels. If the chains stick along the cage, the grappling decides it; if Herbert keeps forcing resets, his power stays live.

Paths that change the fight

Matheus CamiloGet Herbert down in the first half of each round — he has conceded 11 of 33 UFC takedown attempts, seven of them in Round 1 — and keep him there long enough to win on control or find a choke.
Jai HerbertKeep it standing and long, where the 7.5-inch reach and five first-round knockdowns live, and make each entry cost Camilo the way Borshchev's 65 landed strikes did.

What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 3/10

Herbert has +7.5 inches of reach and 6 UFC knockdowns, 5 of them in Round 1.
Three UFC fights and 25 minutes — one fight can move his rates a long way.

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Matheus Camilo

Freshness unverified

Model win probability: 54%
Fair odds: -117

Reference quote: -195 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 1.85

Jai Herbert

Freshness unverified

Model win probability: 46%
Fair odds: +117

Reference quote: +165 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 2.17

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Sources and data limitations

Career statistics and fight results through September 2026. Composite scores, probabilities and fair prices are MMA Analytics model outputs.

Model methodology

Read the evidence Inspect prices and assumptions

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Camilo has won two straight since a debut submission loss — a decision over Viacheslav Borshchev built on takedowns, then a first-round knockout of Nazim Sadykhov in June — and no UFC opponent has taken him down. Herbert brings the reach, the power and ten UFC fights, but opponents keep getting him to the mat, and he has not beaten an established UFC lightweight. Model lean: Camilo 54% · Herbert 46%, conviction 3/10.

Matheus Camilo

Attribute

Jai Herbert

2513 years younger: Camilo

Age

5' 10"

Height

+3" Herbert6' 1"

69.5"

Reach

+7.5" Herbert77"

39"

Leg Reach

+2" Herbert41"

11-3-0

Pro Record

14-6-1

2-1 (3 bouts)

UFC Record

4-5-1 (10 bouts)

7 of 11 wins

Finishes

11 of 14 wins

Grappling entries

Fighting Style

Range striker

Herbert is the bigger lightweight by every measure: three inches taller, seven and a half inches longer in the arms and two inches longer in the legs. That length is how he fights — 79% of his UFC significant strikes land at distance — and it is the space Camilo has to cross on every entry. Camilo gives up the frame but not the age: he is 25, Herbert turned 38 in May.

Venue Factor
The 25-foot APEX Octagon helps the wrestler. There is less floor for Herbert to circle on and the fence arrives sooner, which is where a chain wrestler finishes shots. Herbert's two APEX fights both ended inside two rounds — a first-round stoppage of Khama Worthy and a second-round rear-naked choke loss to Renato Moicano, who took him down five times in seven attempts. Camilo's one APEX fight was his debut submission loss to Gabe Green.

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Matheus Camilo

Pro Record

11-3-0

UFC Record

2-1 — W KO Sadykhov, W UD Borshchev, L SUB Green

Streak

Two straight wins — stopped Nazim Sadykhov in 1:31 (Jun 27, 2026)

Finish Rate

64% (7 of 11 wins) — 5 KO/TKO, 2 submissions

Avg Fight Time

8:25 (3 UFC bouts)

Chin · Untested by strikes — 0 knockdowns absorbed; all three career losses are submissionsSOS · UFC veteransGrappling entries

Camilo earned his contract with a December 2024 decision over Dorobshokh Nabotov and was submitted by Gabe Green on debut in May 2025 — a rear-naked choke at 3:43 of Round 2, after he had landed two takedowns in three attempts and banked 2:30 of control. He is 2-0 since. At UFC 322 he beat Viacheslav Borshchev on the cards with five takedowns in ten attempts and 3:22 of control even though Borshchev out-landed him 65–39 on the feet. In June he dropped Nazim Sadykhov with a straight right and finished him with hammerfists at 1:31 of the first round; Sadykhov landed 0 of 16. Across 25 minutes of UFC time he lands 2.22 and absorbs 3.05 significant strikes per minute, averages 4.16 takedowns per fifteen minutes, and has not been taken down or knocked down. All three of his career losses are submissions.

Jai Herbert

Pro Record

14-6-1

UFC Record

4-5-1 — ten UFC bouts since July 2020

Streak

Won his last — stopped Mandel Nallo at 2:05 of Round 1 (Apr 18, 2026)

Finish Rate

79% (11 of 14 wins) — 10 KO/TKO, 1 submission

Avg Fight Time

10:42 (10 UFC bouts)

Chin · Hittable — 3 UFC knockdowns absorbed; stopped by Trinaldo and TopuriaSOS · Veteran UFC scheduleRange striker

Herbert's UFC career splits cleanly by opponent. Against Khama Worthy, Kyle Nelson, Rolando Bedoya and Mandel Nallo he is 4-0 with two first-round stoppages; against Francisco Trinaldo, Renato Moicano, Ilia Topuria, Farès Ziam, Chris Padilla and Ludovit Klein he is 0-5-1. The losses come in different ways. Trinaldo and Topuria stopped him after he had dropped each of them first, Moicano took him down five times and choked him in Round 2, and Ziam and Padilla out-worked him over fifteen minutes, Padilla on a split decision. He lands 3.19 and absorbs 3.34 significant strikes per minute, sends 29% of his output to the body, and has scored 6 knockdowns while absorbing 3. He rarely wrestles (3 takedowns in 14 attempts), and opponents have had him in control positions for 26 of his 107 UFC minutes. He is 38 and coming off the Nallo fight, where both men scored knockdowns before he finished it at 2:05.

Matheus Camilo

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Knockdown Exchange

Knockdowns dealt vs absorbed.

Jai Herbert

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Matheus Camilosignature weapons

Punches (KO/TKO)Latest: Sadykhov, R1 1:31 — straight right, then hammerfists (Jun 2026)

×5

KimuraJake Heffernan, R1 4:17 (Feb 2023)

×1

Triangle armbarDorian Ramos, R3 2:43 (Sep 2023)

×1

Jai Herbertsignature weapons

Punches (KO/TKO)Latest: Nallo, R1 2:05 (Apr 2026); Worthy R1 2:47 in 2021

×8

Body kickBen Bennett, R2 (2015)

×1

KneeCain Carrizosa, R1 3:26 — Cage Warriors title defence (2019)

×1

Rear-naked chokeTony Morgan, R2 2:19 (2016)

×1

Matheus Camilo

Nazim Sadykhov

KO/TKO — Straight right, then hammerfists

Opponent context: veteran

R1 (1:31)

UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres, Baku — Jun 27, 2026

Viacheslav Borshchev

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: veteran

R3 (5:00)

UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev — Nov 15, 2025

Gabe Green

Submission — Rear-naked choke

Opponent context: veteran

R2 (3:43)

UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales — May 17, 2025 (UFC debut)

Dorobshokh Nabotov

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: ufc adjacent

R3 (5:00)

Dana White's Lookin' for a Fight, South Korea — Dec 14, 2024 (earned UFC contract)

Jhonasky Sojo

Decision — Unanimous

R3 (5:00)

Tuff-N-Uff 139 — Oct 11, 2024

Pattern

Two straight UFC wins after a debut loss, and they came in opposite ways. Against Borshchev he won with wrestling while losing the striking count 65–39; against Sadykhov he never needed a takedown. The debut loss is the warning: he took Green down twice and controlled him for 2:30, then lost the scramble and was choked in Round 2. He arrived in the UFC on a six-fight win streak, the last two of those wins decisions.

Jai Herbert

Mandel Nallo

KO/TKO — Punches

Opponent context: ufc

R1 (2:05)

UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott, Winnipeg — Apr 18, 2026

Chris Padilla

Decision — Split

Opponent context: veteran

R3 (5:00)

UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady, London — Mar 22, 2025

Rolando Bedoya

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: ufc

R3 (5:00)

UFC on ABC: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov, Abu Dhabi — Aug 3, 2024

Farès Ziam

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: veteran

R3 (5:00)

UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura, London — Jul 22, 2023

Ludovit Klein

Draw — Majority (Herbert deducted a point in R3)

Opponent context: veteran

R3 (5:00)

UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3, London — Mar 18, 2023

Pattern

Two wins in his last five (2-2-1), and results have alternated since 2023: the wins came against Bedoya and Nallo, the losses and the draw against Padilla, Ziam and Klein. In his two fifteen-minute fights since 2024 his output came late — 37 landed in Round 3 against Bedoya, 28 in Round 3 against Padilla — and Padilla still took the split decision.

Matheus Camilo

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Jai Herbert

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Critical Insight
Both men finish most of their wins and both finish early: Camilo has four first-round finishes in 11 wins, Herbert five first-round and five second-round finishes in 14. The difference is how they lose. Herbert has been stopped four times — three by strikes (McKee, Trinaldo, Topuria) and once by submission (Moicano). Camilo has lost three times, all by submission, and has never been stopped by strikes.

Opposition strength (no shared opponents)

Without a reliable shared-opponent table, compare who each fighter has been tested against using SOS tier, UFC sample size, and recent elite-tier form — not raw records alone.

Factor	Matheus	Jai
Strength of schedule (SOS tier)	UFC veterans — Gabe Green, Viacheslav Borshchev and Nazim Sadykhov — Herbert, with ten UFC fights, is the most experienced opponent of his career	Veteran UFC schedule — 0-5-1 against Topuria, Moicano, Trinaldo, Ziam, Padilla and Klein; 4-0 against Worthy, Nelson, Bedoya and Nallo
UFC sample	2-1 — W KO Sadykhov, W UD Borshchev, L SUB Green	4-5-1 — ten UFC bouts since July 2020
Recent ranked / elite touches (last 5)	0 elite · 3 veteran tier	0 elite · 3 veteran tier
Form-window tier points tied in the last-five sample — compare SOS notes and methods, not volume alone.
Last three opponents	Nazim Sadykhov, Viacheslav Borshchev, Gabe Green	Mandel Nallo, Chris Padilla, Rolando Bedoya

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and UFC experience before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

SLpM 25% · StrAcc 30% · StrDef 30% · SApM 15%

Matheusfew UFC fights

Jai

Herbert out-lands him 3.19 to 2.22 per minute; Camilo is harder to hit (67% defence to 53%) and absorbs less (3.05 to 3.34).

Grappling

TD/15 25% · TDAcc 25% · TDDef 30% · Sub/15 20%

Matheusfew UFC fights

Jai

Camilo lands 7 of 13 takedowns and 0.59 submission attempts per 15; Herbert lands 3 of 14 and has conceded 11 of 33.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

Matheusfew UFC fights

Jai

The six-point edge is all grappling — striking is close to even.

Metric	Matheus	Jai
TD landed / att.	7 of 13few UFC fights	3 of 14
TDs conceded	0 of 0	11 of 33
UFC KD dealt / absorbed	1 / 0	6 / 3
Reach	69.5"	77"
Landed ÷ absorbed	0.73few UFC fights	0.95

Archetype Base Rate

Grappling Entries 54%46% Range Striker

MMA Analytics model — this matchup · 54/46 Camilo. Takedown access (7 of 13 against a defence that has conceded 11 of 33) outweighs Herbert's reach and first-round power, but only narrowly.

Matheus CamiloJai Herbert

Lightweight

· 57 fighters

Rank bars use the recorded division cohort. Where a rank is unavailable, the comparison shows the difference from the published division average; the white marker denotes equality. Percentage differences are percentage points (pp). Higher is not always better: fewer strikes absorbed is preferable. Missing benchmarks are not estimated.

Stat	Matheus	Matheus comparison	Div avg	Jai comparison	Jai
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	2.22	-2.29 vs avgfew UFC fights	4.51	50/57	3.19
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	43%	-4.80 pp vs avgfew UFC fights	47.8%	48/57	42%
Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit.	67%	+14.60 pp vs avgfew UFC fights	52.4%	26/57	53%
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	3.05	-1.10 vs avgfew UFC fights	4.15	12/57	3.34
KD/15	0.59	+0.08 vs avgfew UFC fights	0.51	21/57	0.84
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	4.16	+2.49 vs avgfew UFC fights	1.67	46/57	0.42
TD Acc	54% (7 of 13)	Not availablefew UFC fights	—	Not available	21% (3 of 14)
TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed.	— (no attempts faced)	Not available	—	Not available	67% (11 conceded of 33)
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	0.59	+0.11 vs avgfew UFC fights	0.48	38/57	0.00
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	8:25	Not available	—	Not available	10:42

Statistical Verdict
Neither man is a volume striker by lightweight standards — both land well under the division's 4.51 per minute, and both absorb less than its 4.15. The separation is on the mat: Camilo takes opponents down at two and a half times the division rate and has never been taken down, while Herbert sits 46th of 57 for takedowns and has conceded a third of the attempts against him. Herbert's counters are power (0.84 knockdowns per 15, 21st of 57) and reach.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

⚠ R3: single-fight sample for Matheus Camilo

Control Time per Round (sec)

Matheus Camilo

Three UFC fights and 25 minutes of cage time: one ended at 1:31 of Round 1, one in Round 2 and one went fifteen minutes. Each round's figures rest on three rounds or fewer.
Round 2 is his control round — 103 seconds of top time per second round — and it is also the round Green took over and finished him with a rear-naked choke.
His only third round, against Borshchev, was his busiest (17 landed) and his most porous: Borshchev landed 37 of 101 in it. He still won the fight on the two rounds of wrestling before it.

Jai Herbert

Round 1 is where his power shows: 5 of his 6 UFC knockdowns and both UFC stoppage wins (Worthy 2:47, Nallo 2:05) came in the first round.
Round 1 is also where he gets controlled: opponents average 86 seconds of first-round control on him, and 7 of the 11 takedowns he has conceded came in Round 1.
His output rises each round — 12.3, 13.5, then 18.3 landed — but the middle and late rounds are also where he has been finished: Moicano (R2), Topuria (R2) and Trinaldo (R3).

Critical Insight
Both men do their best work early. Herbert has five first-round knockdowns, and Camilo has landed 3 of his 7 takedowns in first rounds and dropped Sadykhov inside 90 seconds. After that they go in opposite directions: Herbert gets busier as the fight goes on (12.3 to 18.3 landed), while the only UFC third round Camilo has fought is the one Borshchev won 37–17 on the strike count.

Strike targeting

Matheus

64%

18%

Head

64%

Body

18%

Legs

18%

Jai

53%

30%

17%

Head

53%

Body

30%

Legs

17%

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

MatheusJai

91%Distance79%

2%Clinch14%

7%Ground7%

Share of significant strikes landed at distance, in the clinch and on the ground across each fighter's UFC rounds, weighted by strike volume.

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much

Open SpaceJai owns it

77-inch reach, 3.19 landed per minute and 0.84 knockdowns per 15 against Camilo's 2.22

Pocket / ExchangesJai owns it

Herbert has scored 6 UFC knockdowns but absorbed 3; Camilo dropped Sadykhov and has never been dropped

Clinch / FenceMatheus owns it

Camilo lands 54% of his shots; Herbert has conceded 11 of 33, seven in Round 1

GroundMatheus owns it

5:55 of control in 25 UFC minutes and a submission threat; Herbert has 0 UFC submission attempts and was choked by Moicano

Path to Victory

Matheus Camilo

Get Herbert down in the first half of each round — he has conceded 11 of 33 UFC takedown attempts, seven of them in Round 1 — and keep him there long enough to win on control or find a choke.

Why they win

Takedown access

4.16 takedowns per 15 at 54% (7 of 13) against a defence that has conceded 11 of 33 — Moicano landed 5 of 7.

Never taken down, never dropped

0 takedowns conceded and 0 knockdowns absorbed in three UFC fights.

Top control

5:55 of control in 25 UFC minutes; opponents have held Herbert in control positions for 26 of his 107.

Youth

25 against 38 — and Herbert's last two UFC losses both went the full fifteen minutes.

Momentum

Two straight wins; Sadykhov landed 0 of 16 before the 1:31 stoppage.

The gameplan

1
Shoot behind the right hand
The straight right that dropped Sadykhov is the entry — level change off it, not from open space into a 77-inch jab.
2
Chain against the fence
The 25-foot cage brings the fence closer; finish the second and third attempts there, as he did in landing 5 of 10 on Borshchev.
3
Position before the choke
Secure top position and stay there before hunting the neck — the Green scramble is the lesson.
4
Front-load the wrestling
Take Rounds 1 and 2 on control; Herbert's output peaks in Round 3.

Path to Victory

Jai Herbert

Keep it standing and long, where the 7.5-inch reach and five first-round knockdowns live, and make each entry cost Camilo the way Borshchev's 65 landed strikes did.

Why they win

Reach

77 inches against 69.5 — 79% of his UFC strikes land at distance.

First-round power

6 UFC knockdowns, 5 of them in Round 1; 10 of his 14 wins are KO/TKO.

Output

3.19 landed per minute against 2.22 — and Borshchev already out-landed Camilo 65–39.

Body work

29% of his landed strikes go to the body (100 of 341), which slows wrestlers over fifteen minutes.

Experience

Ten UFC fights and 107 Octagon minutes against three fights and 25.

The gameplan

1
Jab and body shots from range
Use the reach and 29% body work to make Camilo cover distance.
2
Circle off the fence early
In a 25-foot cage the fence is never far — reset to the centre before the second shot comes.
3
Punish the re-shot
Camilo attempts 7.7 takedowns per 15 minutes; a counter on the second level change is where the knockdowns come from.
4
Win the late minutes
His output climbs to 18.3 landed in Round 3; Camilo's one UFC third round was his worst.

Danger Zone

How Matheus Camilo loses

Herbert stuffs the early shots and Camilo is left striking with a longer man who lands 3.19 per minute — the Borshchev fight without the five takedowns.
A counter as he changes levels: five of Herbert's six UFC knockdowns came in Round 1.
A scramble goes wrong — all three of his career losses are submissions, including Green's rear-naked choke at the APEX.

Danger Zone

How Jai Herbert loses

Camilo's first-round shots land and Herbert spends the fight underneath — opponents already average 86 seconds of first-round control on him.
A Moicano repeat: taken down five times and choked in Round 2.
Caught in an exchange — he has absorbed 3 UFC knockdowns and was stopped by Trinaldo and Topuria after hurting both of them first.

Where the lean comes from

Shots against a leaky takedown defence

Camilo lands 54% of his takedowns and has attempted one every two minutes of UFC cage time. Herbert has conceded 11 of 33 attempts, and the only opponent who shot at him repeatedly — Moicano — landed 5 of 7 and submitted him. That is the matchup the 54% rests on.

11 of 33

UFC takedowns Herbert has conceded

Opposition

Herbert's split record

4-0 against Worthy, Nelson, Bedoya and Nallo; 0-5-1 against Trinaldo, Moicano, Topuria, Klein, Ziam and Padilla. Camilo, with two straight wins and one UFC loss, sits between those two groups.

0-5-1

Herbert against established UFC lightweights

Timing

The first round belongs to both

Herbert's five first-round knockdowns and Camilo's three first-round takedowns point at the same five minutes. Whoever lands first — the counter or the shot — probably sets the whole fight.

5 of 6

Herbert's UFC knockdowns scored in Round 1

Risk

Durability runs one way on the feet

Camilo has never been knocked down or stopped by strikes; Herbert has absorbed 3 UFC knockdowns and was stopped by strikes three times in his career. The risk for Camilo sits on the mat instead: all three of his losses are submissions.

Counterargument

What would change the selection

If Herbert's takedown defence holds for the first half of each round, Camilo is a 2.22-strikes-per-minute fighter in front of a longer, more powerful striker. His UFC resume is also only 25 minutes long.

model win % for Camilo

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things

Camilo is 2-1 in the UFC, not 1-1: he knocked out Nazim Sadykhov in the first round in June, and no UFC opponent has taken him down.

Herbert's power is real and front-loaded — most of his UFC knockdowns came in Round 1 — but takedowns have been his problem, most memorably when Moicano took him down five times and choked him.

The model leans Camilo narrowly on takedown access, with conviction held at 3/10 by his short UFC résumé; fair prices are −117 / +117.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Camilo Decision — 28%Camilo KO/TKO — 4%Camilo Submission — 22%Herbert KO/TKO — 22%Herbert Decision — 18%Herbert Submission — 6%

Each square = 1 model percentage point. Matheus Camilo gold · Jai Herbert orange · color opacity: 100% = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Takedown access

Camilo 7 of 13; Herbert has conceded 11 of 33. The single biggest reason for the 54% lean.

Reach and first-round power

+7.5 inches and five first-round knockdowns keep Herbert's 22-point KO path open.

Sample size

25 UFC minutes for Camilo against 107 for Herbert — the main reason conviction is only 3/10.

Submission risk both ways

Camilo's three losses are all submissions; Herbert was choked by Moicano after five takedowns.

Age and form

25 against 38, and both won their last fight inside the first round.

Fight Scripts

of simulations

The Borshchev card

Camilo shoots early and often, banks control in Rounds 1 and 2 and holds on through Herbert's Round 3 surge for a decision.

Scripted outcomes for Matheus Camilo vs Jai Herbert — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Matheus Camilo win probability

28%

22%

KO/TKODECSUB

Four points. He has 5 KO/TKO wins and dropped Sadykhov inside 90 seconds, but he lands 2.22 per minute in the UFC and would be punching up into a 77-inch reach.
Twenty-eight points, his biggest route — the Borshchev template of 5 takedowns in 10 attempts and 3:22 of control over fifteen minutes.
Twenty-two points. Two career submissions (kimura, triangle armbar), 0.59 attempts per 15, and an opponent who has conceded 11 UFC takedowns and was choked by Moicano.

Jai Herbert win probability

22%

18%

KO/TKODECSUB

Twenty-two points — Herbert's main path. Ten KO/TKO wins and 6 UFC knockdowns, five of them in Round 1. Camilo has never been knocked down.
Eighteen points. He keeps it standing and out-lands Camilo over fifteen minutes; Borshchev out-landed him 65–39 and still lost the cards to the takedowns.
Six points — a tail outcome. One career submission (2016) and no UFC submission attempts, but all three of Camilo's losses are submissions.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round

Matheus

Jai

29-28 Camilo

Takedowns win Rounds 1 and 2; Herbert takes the third on volume

Most likely card inside Camilo's 28-point decision share

30-27 Camilo

Control in all three rounds

Inside the same 28 points

29-28 Herbert

Herbert stuffs enough shots to win two rounds at range

Inside Herbert's 18-point decision share

Model and price

Matheus Camilo

Freshness unverified

Model win probability: 54%
Fair odds: -117

Reference quote: -195 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 1.85

Estimated EV: -18.3%
Edge vs no-vig market: -9.7 pp

Jai Herbert

Freshness unverified

Model win probability: 46%
Fair odds: +117

Reference quote: +165 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 2.17

Estimated EV: +21.9%
Edge vs no-vig market: +9.7 pp

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Matheus Camilo

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 1.86 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Jai Herbert

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 2.18 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Analyst price notes

Written against the prices of October 5.

Camilo is a bet only at −117 or better, so BetOnline −195 is not the value side. Herbert +165 is longer than the +125 threshold where his 46% is underpriced. The prop most likely to be mispriced is Camilo by submission — 22% in the model, fair +355 — if the market prices him as a decision wrestler; Herbert by KO/TKO carries the same 22% and the same fair +355.

Conviction

3/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Lean Camilo: 7 UFC takedowns in 13 attempts against a defence that has conceded 11 of 33, no knockdowns or takedowns absorbed, and two straight wins. Conviction stays at 3/10 because his UFC record is 25 minutes long and Herbert brings a 77-inch reach and five first-round knockdowns. Lean: Matheus Camilo.

What backs the lean

7 of 13 UFC takedowns against a man who has conceded 11 of 33 — 5 of 7 to Moicano.
Never knocked down and never taken down in three UFC fights.
Two straight wins, the latest a 1:31 knockout.
25 against 38; Herbert is 0-5-1 against established UFC lightweights.

What limits it

Herbert has +7.5 inches of reach and 6 UFC knockdowns, 5 of them in Round 1.
Three UFC fights and 25 minutes — one fight can move his rates a long way.
Borshchev out-landed him 65–39; he has not beaten a UFC opponent at range over fifteen minutes.
All three career losses are submissions — scrambles carry risk for him too.

Final Assessment

Camilo vs Herbert is a wrestler against a long striker, and it is closer than Camilo's age or momentum suggests. Camilo is 2-1 in the UFC, has won two straight — the latest a 1:31 knockout of Nazim Sadykhov — lands 7 of 13 takedowns and has never been taken down or knocked down. Herbert has ten UFC fights, a 77-inch reach, 6 knockdowns and a first-round stoppage of Mandel Nallo in April, but he has conceded 11 of 33 takedown attempts and is 0-5-1 against established UFC lightweights.

The model leans Camilo 54% to 46% with conviction 3/10. Camilo's wins are mostly decisions (28) and submissions (22), with 4 by KO/TKO; Herbert's are mostly knockouts (22), then decisions (18) and submissions (6). Fair prices are Camilo −117 and Herbert +117.

Take Camilo narrowly, and only at a fair price: the edge comes from takedown access, not from winning exchanges, and the moment he changes levels is the moment Herbert's first-round power is most dangerous. If Herbert keeps the first half of each round standing, the plus side of the line is the better bet.

Back to UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan Fight Card