RJ Harris vs Allen Frye Jr.: analysis & prediction

PRELIMS · HEAVYWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan
RJ Harris — Heavyweight fighter

RJ Harris

6W0L
Wrestling, early power
VS
Allen Frye Jr. — Heavyweight fighter

Allen Frye Jr.

6W1L
Counter striker

Harris's early burst against Frye's counter returns

HeavyweightMeta APEX, Las Vegas, NevadaOctober 10, 202625ft Octagon (Meta APEX)

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Harris wants this fast, the way he stopped Alvin Hines in the first round of his UFC debut, but a heavyweight burst only works if he recovers his base afterward. Frye needs to weather the opening flurry, make Harris work through a second sequence and answer with clean returns rather than a wild exchange. Every one of Frye's pro wins came by knockout, so one well-timed counter can end it.

Paths that change the fight

  • RJ HarrisLand first, the way he dropped Hines, then turn the burst into a clinch or takedown and finish on the ground — three of his six wins are submissions, and he has not needed a second round in the UFC.
  • Allen Frye Jr.Survive the opening burst, use the two-and-a-half-inch reach edge to keep Harris at the end of his punches, and find the one clean shot that ended all six of his wins.
What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 2/10
  • One UFC bout each — 1:40 for Harris — so no rate stat in this fight is stable.
  • Frye was out-landed 64–33 in his only UFC fight, and his output fell to 4 landed in Round 3.

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

RJ Harris

Freshness unverified
Model win probability
50%
Fair odds
+100
Reference quote
-260 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds
2.00

Allen Frye Jr.

Freshness unverified
Model win probability
50%
Fair odds
+100
Reference quote
+216 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds
2.00
Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Sources and data limitations

Career records, fight logs, round-by-round figures and rate lines run through each man's most recent bout (July 2026 for Harris, December 2025 for Frye). Harris's UFC figures come from 1:40 of cage time and Frye's from one fifteen-minute fight. Composite scores, probabilities and fair prices are MMA Analytics model outputs.

Model methodology
Read the evidenceInspect prices and assumptions
01

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Two heavyweights with one UFC fight each, and two very different first impressions. RJ Harris is an unbeaten Ohio wrestler who has fought six times since turning pro in March 2025 and finished five of them; on his UFC debut in July he hurt Alvin Hines and stopped him on the ground inside two minutes. Allen Frye Jr. knocked out every man he beat on the way to the UFC, then lost a clear decision to Guilherme Pat in December — out-landed in all three rounds, though he spent long stretches controlling Pat in the clinch and was never dropped. Frye is the bigger man with the longer arms and has already been through fifteen Octagon minutes; Harris has the broader game, with three submission wins to go with his power. Neither sample is large enough to separate them, and both men end fights early. Model: Harris 50% / Frye 50%, conviction 2/10.

RJ Harris
Attribute
Allen Frye Jr.
28
Age
28
6'3"
Height
+2" Frye6'5"
78"
Reach
+2.5" Frye80.5"
46"
Leg Reach
+3" Frye49"
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Sprawlin And Brawlin MMA
Team
Brunsons MMA and Fitness
6-0-0
Pro Record
6-1-0
1-0 (1 bout)
UFC Record
0-1 (1 bout)
1:40
UFC Cage Time
15:00
84 (KO win)
Days Since Last Fight
301 (decision loss)
Wrestling, early power
Fighting Style
Clinch-heavy knockout puncher

Frye is the longer man everywhere — two inches taller, two and a half inches longer in the arms and three in the legs — and against Pat he used that frame mainly to lean in the clinch, where 42% of his significant strikes landed. Harris is shorter and built like the wrestler he was at Zanesville High School, a two-time sectional champion. Both are 28 on fight night.

Venue Factor
The Meta APEX's 25-foot Octagon helps whoever wants to close distance: Harris early, looking for the burst and the takedown, and Frye in the clinch, where he spent most of his debut. It hurts the fighter who needs room to reset after the first flurry — at heavyweight, in a small cage, the first clean exchange often decides it.
02

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

RJ Harris in the Octagon

RJ Harris

Pro Record
6-0-0
UFC Record
1-0 — stopped Alvin Hines in 1:40 on his debut (Jul 18, 2026)
Streak
Unbeaten — six straight wins since turning pro in March 2025
Finish Rate
83% (5 of 6 wins) — 2 KO/TKO, 3 submissions
Avg Fight Time
1:40 (one UFC bout)
Chin · Untested — 1:40 of UFC cage time, unbeaten as a proSOS · Regional / LFAWrestler

Harris went 5-1 as an amateur and has not lost since turning pro in March 2025, fighting six times in 16 months. The first four came on Ohio cards — a forearm choke, an americana and a decision over Austin Green among them — before two LFA wins: a first-round knockout of Alex Marro and a second-round guillotine of Phil Latu in April 2026. Three months later he debuted in the UFC and stopped Alvin Hines in 1:40, landing 15 of 26 significant strikes with a knockdown and finishing with strikes on the ground. The rate line that produces — 9.00 landed per minute, 9.00 knockdowns per fifteen — comes from 100 seconds and will not hold; the useful information is how it happened: he hurt Hines standing and finished him on the mat.

Allen Frye Jr. in his UFC bout against Guilherme Pat

Allen Frye Jr.

Pro Record
6-1-0
UFC Record
0-1 — unanimous decision loss to Guilherme Pat on his debut (Dec 13, 2025)
Streak
One loss — Pat (Dec 2025), after six straight knockout wins
Finish Rate
100% (6 of 6 wins) — all KO/TKO
Avg Fight Time
15:00 (one UFC bout)
Chin · Tested — went 15 minutes with Pat and was never droppedSOS · RegionalKnockout puncher

Frye knocked out all six of his pre-UFC opponents — Brian Jackson in 12 seconds, David Ciuclea early in the third round, Mark Gordon in the second, then Cody Beck, Ryan Shough (30 seconds) and Justin Frazier in the first — before the UFC signed him in late 2025. The debut against Guilherme Pat went the other way. Pat out-landed him in all three rounds, 64–33 overall and 27–4 in the third, while Frye's best work was 7:55 of control without a takedown. He landed 38% of his significant strikes and was hit by 64% of Pat's. He comes in off 301 days out.

RJ Harris
0 dealt · 0 absorbed
Knockdown Exchange
Knockdowns dealt vs absorbed.
Allen Frye Jr.
0 dealt · 0 absorbed

RJ Harrissignature weapons

Knockdown into Ground StrikesAlex Marro in 2:17 (LFA 223) and Alvin Hines in 1:40 on his UFC debut — 8 of his 15 strikes against Hines landed on the ground
×2
Guillotine ChokePhil Latu at 4:01 of Round 2, LFA 231, April 2026
×1
AmericanaCharlie Cleveland at 3:07 of Round 2, June 2025
×1
Forearm ChokeQuentin Campbell at 3:24 of Round 1 on his pro debut, March 2025
×1

Allen Frye Jr.signature weapons

First-Round KnockoutBrian Jackson (0:12), Cody Beck (2:15), Ryan Shough (0:30) and Justin Frazier (2:54)
×4
Later-Round KnockoutMark Gordon at 3:21 of Round 2 and David Ciuclea 22 seconds into Round 3
×2
Clinch Control7:55 of control against Pat without a takedown; 14 of his 33 UFC significant strikes landed in the clinch
×0

RJ Harris

W
Alvin Hines
KO/TKO — Knockdown, then ground strikes

Opponent context: ufc

R1 (1:40)
UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman, Oklahoma City — Jul 18, 2026
W
Phil Latu
Submission — Guillotine
R2 (4:01)
LFA 231 — Apr 2026
W
Alex Marro
KO/TKO
R1 (2:17)
LFA 223 — Nov 2025
W
Austin Green
Decision — Unanimous
R3 (5:00)
Caged Thunder 34 — Sep 2025
W
Charlie Cleveland
Submission — Americana
R2 (3:07)
Caged Thunder 32 — Jun 2025
Pattern

Six wins in 16 months and a steady climb in opposition: Ohio regional cards, then LFA, then the UFC. Three of the six ended in Round 1 and two in Round 2; the only one to go the distance was the decision over Austin Green. The UFC sample is 100 seconds long — dominant, but not yet a measure of how he handles a second round against a heavyweight who survives the opening burst.

Allen Frye Jr.

L
Guilherme Pat
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: prospect

R3 (5:00)
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape — Dec 13, 2025
W
Justin Frazier
KO/TKO
R1 (2:54)
Real Deal Championships 21 — Sep 2025
W
Ryan Shough
KO/TKO
R1 (0:30)
Ultimate Battle Grounds 25 — Jun 2025
W
Cody Beck
KO/TKO
R1 (2:15)
Real Deal Championships 17 — Jan 2025
W
Mark Gordon
KO/TKO
R2 (3:21)
Made Men Promotions: Live MMA at NEO 3 — Jul 2024
Pattern

Six knockouts in six regional wins, four of them in the first round, then a clear loss on his UFC debut. Pat out-landed him in every round — 24–19, 13–10 and 27–4 — and Frye's output fell each time. The clinch control (7:55) shows he can hold a man; the third round shows what happened to his offence while he did.

RJ Harris

Win Methods
Wins by Round

Allen Frye Jr.

Win Methods
Wins by Round
Critical Insight
Both charts are scoped to career wins. Harris's six: three first-round finishes (Quentin Campbell by forearm choke, Marro and Hines by strikes), two second-round submissions (Charlie Cleveland by americana, Phil Latu by guillotine) and the Green decision. Frye's six are all knockouts — four in Round 1, including 12- and 30-second finishes, one in Round 2 and one 22 seconds into Round 3. Harris has more ways to win; Frye has one, and it worked every time before the UFC.

Opposition strength (no shared opponents)

Without a reliable shared-opponent table, compare who each fighter has been tested against using SOS tier, UFC sample size, and recent elite-tier form — not raw records alone.

FactorRJAllen
Strength of schedule (SOS tier)Regional / LFA — Hines on his debut; before that LFA wins over Phil Latu and Alex Marro and three Ohio regional fightsRegional — Pat on his debut; before that Real Deal Championships, Ultimate Battle Grounds and Made Men Promotions opponents
UFC sample1-0 — stopped Alvin Hines in 1:40 on his debut (Jul 18, 2026)0-1 — unanimous decision loss to Guilherme Pat on his debut (Dec 13, 2025)
Recent ranked / elite touches (last 5)0 elite · 0 veteran tier0 elite · 0 veteran tier
Form-window difficulty edge: Fighter B (1 vs 0 tier points in listed bouts).
Last three opponentsAlvin Hines, Phil Latu, Alex MarroGuilherme Pat, Justin Frazier, Ryan Shough
03

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and UFC experience before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

SLpM 25% · StrAcc 30% · StrDef 30% · SApM 15%

0
RJfew UFC fights
0
Allenfew UFC fights

Harris by 28, from 1:40 of cage time: 9.00 landed per minute at 58% with 56% defence. Frye's 30 comes from a full fight in which he landed 2.20 per minute at 38% and was hit by 64% of Pat's attempts. Both are single-fight lines.

MetricRJAllen
UFC Cage Time1:40few UFC fights15:00
UFC Strike Differential+4 (15–11)few UFC fights−31 (33–64)
UFC Control Time0:107:55 (no takedowns)
Strikes Landed on the Ground53%0%
Days Since Last Fight84301

Archetype Base Rate

Wrestler 50%50% Knockout puncher

MMA Analytics model · An even split. Harris's cleaner UFC debut and more complete finishing record are balanced by Frye's size, his fifteen UFC minutes and six knockouts in six wins.

RJ HarrisAllen Frye Jr.

Heavyweight

· 22 fighters

Rank bars use the recorded division cohort. Where a rank is unavailable, the comparison shows the difference from the published division average; the white marker denotes equality. Percentage differences are percentage points (pp). Higher is not always better: fewer strikes absorbed is preferable. Missing benchmarks are not estimated.

StatRJRJ comparisonDiv avgAllen comparisonAllen
SLpM9.00
+4.46 vs avgfew UFC fights
4.54
-2.34 vs avgfew UFC fights
2.20
Str Acc58% (15 of 26)
Not availablefew UFC fights
53.2%
Not availablefew UFC fights
38% (33 of 86)
Str Def56%
+4.10 pp vs avgfew UFC fights
51.9%
-15.90 pp vs avgfew UFC fights
36%
SApM6.60
+2.71 vs avgfew UFC fights
3.89
+0.38 vs avgfew UFC fights
4.27
KD Avg9.00 (1 in 1:40)
Not availablefew UFC fights
1.14
-1.14 vs avgfew UFC fights
0.00
TD/150.00
-1.97 vs avg
1.97
-1.97 vs avg
0.00
Sub/150.00
-0.45 vs avg
0.45
-0.45 vs avg
0.00
Statistical Verdict
Nothing in this table is a stable rate. Harris's line is one 100-second fight — 15 landed, a knockdown, a finish — and Frye's is one fifteen-minute loss in which he was out-landed nearly two to one. Read it as a record of what happened, not a forecast: Harris hurt the only UFC opponent he has faced, and Frye absorbed 64 significant strikes from his and stayed upright.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

⚠ R1: single-fight sample for RJ Harris

⚠ R1, R2, R3: single-fight sample for Allen Frye Jr.

Control Time per Round (sec)

RJ Harris

  • One UFC round, 1:40 long: 15 of 26 significant strikes landed, a knockdown, and 8 of the 15 on the ground.
  • Twelve of his 15 strikes went to the head and three to the legs; nothing landed to the body.
  • He has not been past Round 1 in the UFC. His regional record includes a three-round decision and two second-round submissions.

Allen Frye Jr.

  • Frye lost every round on the strike count against Pat: 19–24, 10–13 and 4–27.
  • He held 2:18, 2:15 and 3:22 of control across the three rounds without landing a takedown, and half of his second- and third-round strikes came in the clinch.
  • His output fell each round (19, 10, 4) while Pat's rose to 27 in the third.
Critical Insight
The only round-by-round evidence in this fight points one way: Harris's lone UFC round was a finish, while Frye's output fell from 19 to 10 to 4 across his three. Against that, Harris has 100 seconds of UFC data and Frye has already spent fifteen minutes in the Octagon without being dropped.

Strike targeting

RJ

Head
80%
Body
0%
Legs
20%

Allen

Head
52%
Body
36%
Legs
12%

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

RJAllen
47%Distance58%
0%Clinch42%
53%Ground0%

Share of significant strikes landed at distance, in the clinch and on the ground across each fighter's UFC rounds, weighted by strike volume.

04

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much
Open SpaceAllen owns it

80.5-inch reach and 19 of his 33 UFC strikes landed at distance; Harris wants to close

Pocket / ExchangesRJ owns it

Harris landed 58% with a knockdown in his only UFC round; Frye was hit by 64% of Pat's attempts

ClinchAllen owns it

7:55 of control against Pat and 42% of his UFC strikes in the clinch

GroundRJ owns it

53% of Harris's UFC strikes and three of his six wins came on the mat; Frye has never landed a strike there in the UFC

Path to Victory

RJ Harris

Land first, the way he dropped Hines, then turn the burst into a clinch or takedown and finish on the ground — three of his six wins are submissions, and he has not needed a second round in the UFC.

Why they win
01
Finishing variety

Two knockouts and three submissions in six wins — guillotine, americana and forearm choke — against Frye's knockout-only record.

02
The debut

15 of 26 significant strikes, a knockdown and a finish in 1:40 against Hines.

03
Wrestling base

A two-time sectional champion at Zanesville High School; 53% of his UFC strikes landed on the ground.

04
Frye's defence

Pat landed 64% of his significant strikes on Frye — 64 in fifteen minutes.

05
Activity

84 days since his last fight against Frye's 301.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Feint to draw the counter

    Frye has knocked out everyone he has beaten; make him throw first and miss.

  2. 2
    Burst in combinations

    Attack in short, committed flurries rather than single shots at range — 15 landed in 1:40 against Hines.

  3. 3
    Change levels behind the punches

    Use the wrestling base when Frye covers up; three of Harris's six wins are submissions.

  4. 4
    Win the clinch

    Frye spent 7:55 in control against Pat; pummel for underhooks rather than let a bigger man lean.

  5. 5
    Finish on the ground

    Eight of his 15 debut strikes landed on the mat; keep Frye there once he is down.

Path to Victory

Allen Frye Jr.

Survive the opening burst, use the two-and-a-half-inch reach edge to keep Harris at the end of his punches, and find the one clean shot that ended all six of his wins.

Why they win
01
Power

Six knockouts in six wins, four in Round 1 and two inside 30 seconds.

02
Size

Two inches taller, with two and a half inches more reach and three more inches of leg reach.

03
Octagon time

Fifteen UFC minutes against Harris's 100 seconds — he has already been through a full UFC fight.

04
Durability

Absorbed 64 significant strikes from Pat without being dropped.

05
Clinch control

7:55 of control against Pat without a takedown — he can lean on a smaller heavyweight.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Use the reach

    Jab and long straight shots from 80.5 inches; make Harris cover distance.

  2. 2
    Weather the first minute

    Harris's UFC finish came at 1:40; survive the opening flurry with a high guard.

  3. 3
    Counter the entry

    Four of his six knockouts came in Round 1 — time Harris coming in.

  4. 4
    Clinch and lean

    When Harris closes, tie him up and control him as he did Pat for 7:55, draining a smaller man.

  5. 5
    Keep the output up late

    He landed 4 significant strikes in the third round against Pat; he cannot afford that again.

Danger Zone

How RJ Harris loses

  • Harris over-commits to the opening burst, Frye survives it, and a tiring wrestler walks onto the counter that has ended six of Frye's fights.

  • Frye's reach keeps Harris at range and the takedowns never come — Harris has yet to attempt one in the UFC.

  • The fight goes three rounds and Frye's size in the clinch wins the minutes, the model's largest Frye outcome (22 of 100).

Danger Zone

How Allen Frye Jr. loses

  • Harris lands first and finishes on the ground, the Hines and Marro sequence — the model's largest single outcome (Harris KO/TKO, 22).

  • Frye's output fades again, as it did against Pat, and Harris takes him down late.

  • A clinch exchange becomes a scramble and Harris finds a neck — he has three submission wins, and Frye has never won or been tested on the mat in the UFC.

Harris's UFC sample

One Hundred Seconds

Every UFC statistic Harris owns comes from 1:40 against Alvin Hines: 15 of 26 strikes, a knockdown, 9.00 landed per minute. Those numbers describe a fast finish, not a pace. The regional record — three first-round finishes, two second-round submissions and a decision — says more about how he wins.

1:40
Harris's total UFC cage time
Frye's only route, and it has worked

Six for Six by Knockout

Frye has never won a fight any other way. Four of the six came in Round 1, two inside 30 seconds, and he took Pat's best for fifteen minutes without going down.

6 of 6
Frye's wins by KO/TKO
Frye's output against Pat

The Fading Third

Frye landed 19, 10 and 4 significant strikes across his three UFC rounds while Pat went 24, 13 and 27. If this fight reaches Round 3, the only UFC evidence points away from Frye.

4
Frye's significant strikes landed in Round 3 against Pat
The physical question

Reach Against Level Changes

Frye's 80.5-inch reach and 49-inch leg reach against Harris's 78 and 46. Harris beat Hines by closing the distance and finishing on the ground; Frye needs him to stay at the end of those arms.

+2.5"
Frye's reach edge

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

05

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things
1

A genuine coin flip between two one-fight UFC records: Harris's was a quick, violent debut win, Frye's a clear decision loss he survived without being dropped.

2

Both men finish fights early — three of Harris's six wins and four of Frye's six came in the first round — and the model has 60 of 100 fights ending inside the distance.

3

Frye has the size and the Octagon minutes; Harris has the grappling. The one trend in the round data — Frye's output falling in every round against Pat — is the best argument for Harris if the fight goes long.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

RJ Harris KO/TKO — 22%RJ Harris Decision — 18%RJ Harris Submission — 10%Allen Frye Jr. KO/TKO — 18%Allen Frye Jr. Decision — 22%Allen Frye Jr. Submission — 10%

Each square = 1 model percentage point. RJ Harris gold · Allen Frye Jr. orange · color opacity: 100% = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Tiny samples

100 seconds of UFC data for Harris and fifteen minutes for Frye. The model leans on career finishing history and physical data rather than rate stats — the main reason conviction is 2/10.

First-round power on both sides

Harris has three first-round finishes, Frye four. That produces the two largest knockout buckets: Harris 22, Frye 18.

Harris's grappling

Three submission wins and a wrestling base give him a route Frye has not shown, worth 10 Harris submissions and part of his 18 decisions.

Frye's size and fifteen minutes

Reach, leg reach and a full UFC fight behind him account for his 22-point decision bucket, the largest Frye outcome.

Frye's fading output

19, 10 and 4 landed against Pat. A tired Frye is where Harris's late finishes and decision wins come from.

Fight Scripts

0%
of simulations

Heavyweight Burst

Someone lands first. Harris closes behind a flurry, drops Frye and finishes on the ground as he did Hines — or Frye times the entry with the counter that ended all six of his wins. The model splits these 22–18 to Harris.

Scripted outcomes for RJ Harris vs Allen Frye Jr. — how each version of this fight unfolds.

RJ Harris win probability
0%
22%
18%
10%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Twenty-two, the largest single outcome. Two knockout wins, including a 1:40 stoppage with a knockdown on his UFC debut, against a fighter hit by 64% of Pat's significant strikes.

  • Eighteen. Harris has gone the distance once (Austin Green, unanimous decision) and brings a wrestling base Frye has not faced in the UFC.

  • Ten. Three submission wins — guillotine, americana and forearm choke — two of them in Round 2.

Allen Frye Jr. win probability
0%
18%
22%
10%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Eighteen. Six knockouts in six wins, four in Round 1, against a fighter with 100 seconds of UFC experience.

  • Twenty-two, Frye's largest bucket. He has already fought fifteen UFC minutes and holds the reach and clinch edges that win close rounds.

  • Ten. No submission wins yet; this covers a scramble finish if Harris's entries leave his neck exposed.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round
R1
RJ
R2
Even
R3
Allen
29-28 Frye
Harris takes Round 1; Frye's size and clinch control take the later rounds
Slightly the more likely card — 22 of the model's 40 decisions
29-28 Harris
Harris's first-round burst plus a takedown-heavy second or third round
18 of the 40 decisions
30-27 Harris
Harris wrestles for fifteen minutes and Frye's output fades as it did against Pat
The one-sided version of Harris's decision path

Model and price

RJ Harris

Freshness unverified
Model win probability
50%
Fair odds
+100
Reference quote
-260 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds
2.00
Estimated EV
-30.8%
Edge vs no-vig market
-19.5 pp

Allen Frye Jr.

Freshness unverified
Model win probability
50%
Fair odds
+100
Reference quote
+216 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds
2.00
Estimated EV
+58.0%
Edge vs no-vig market
+19.5 pp

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · RJ Harris

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 2.00 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Allen Frye Jr.

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 2.00 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Analyst price notes

Written against the prices of October 5.

At 50/50, Frye +216 is the plus-money side and Harris −260 is not. The clearer call is on the method: 60 of 100 fights end inside the distance, so 'fight does not go the distance' is fair at −150 and anything better is worth a look. Harris by KO/TKO (22%, fair +355) is the single most likely outcome.

Conviction
0
2/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

No side. Harris's debut was the better performance and his record has more ways to win, but it is 100 seconds of UFC evidence; Frye's size, power and fifteen Octagon minutes balance it. The model is more confident about the method than the winner: this is more likely to end early than to go the distance. Lean: Pick'em.

What backs the lean

  • Harris: 6-0 with finishes by strikes and submission, and a 1:40 stoppage on his UFC debut.

  • Harris: a wrestling base and ground strikes (53% of his UFC output) against a fighter who has never landed a strike on the mat in the UFC.

  • Frye: six knockouts in six wins, four in Round 1, and a two-and-a-half-inch reach edge.

  • Frye: fifteen UFC minutes and 7:55 of clinch control against Pat without being dropped.

What limits it

  • One UFC bout each — 1:40 for Harris — so no rate stat in this fight is stable.

  • Frye was out-landed 64–33 in his only UFC fight, and his output fell to 4 landed in Round 3.

  • Harris has not been past Round 1 in the UFC and has one pro decision.

  • Heavyweight volatility: 40 of 100 simulated fights end by knockout, so one punch can overturn any lean.

Final Assessment

In 50 of 100 simulations RJ Harris stays unbeaten. Most often he does it the way he did against Alvin Hines — lands first, drops Frye and finishes on the ground (22%). Otherwise he uses his wrestling to win rounds (18%) or catches a neck in a scramble, as he did against Phil Latu and Charlie Cleveland (10%).

In the other 50, Allen Frye Jr. gets his first UFC win. He survives the opening burst and lands the counter that has ended every one of his wins (18%), or uses his reach and clinch control — 7:55 of it against Pat — to take a decision (22%). A scramble finish of his own covers the rest (10%).

On October 10 at the Meta APEX the model has no favourite. Harris has the more complete game and the better debut; Frye has the size, the power record and the Octagon minutes. The clearest read is on the method: 60 of the 100 fights end inside the distance, 40 of them by knockout.

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