Francisco Prado vs Ismael Bonfim – UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan Fight Analytics & Prediction

PRELIMS · LIGHTWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan

Francisco Prado

12W5L

Finish-first striker

Ismael Bonfim

20W7L

Structured boxer

Bonfim's cleaner exchanges versus Prado's finishing transitions

LightweightMeta APEX, Las Vegas, NevadaOctober 10, 202625ft Octagon (Meta APEX)

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Bonfim is the cleaner, busier striker, and his route is structured combinations with sound exits that keep this a long, orderly striking contest. Prado has lost four straight decisions, yet every one of his pro wins is a finish, so he needs disorder: phase changes, scrambles and openings in transitions. Bonfim's recent losses came by submission and knockout, which is why one loose exit keeps Prado dangerous.

Paths that change the fight

Francisco PradoMake it messy early — leg kicks, clinch breaks, takedown attempts and scrambles in the first round, where he out-lands opponents and Bonfim has been finished three times — and find a neck or a counter before Bonfim's boxing takes over.
Ismael BonfimGet through the end of Round 1, stay off the mat and out of front headlocks, then win the second and third rounds at range with the combinations that out-landed Pichel 111–61.

What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 3/10

Bonfim has been finished in each of his last three fights, and three of his four UFC losses ended in the last 20 seconds of Round 1.
Two of those losses were chokes; Prado has six submission wins and 0.76 attempts per fifteen.

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Francisco Prado

Freshness unverified

Model win probability: 46%
Fair odds: +117

Reference quote: -106 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 2.17

Ismael Bonfim

Freshness unverified

Model win probability: 54%
Fair odds: -117

Reference quote: -110 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 1.85

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Sources and data limitations

Career records, UFC fight logs, round-by-round figures and rate lines run through each man's most recent bout (April 2026 for Prado, July 2026 for Bonfim). Bonfim's rate line includes his 2022 Contender Series win over Nariman Abbasov; UFC-only figures are shown where they differ. Composite scores, probabilities and fair prices are MMA Analytics model outputs.

Model methodology

Read the evidence Inspect prices and assumptions

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Francisco Prado and Ismael Bonfim both arrive on losing streaks, but they lose in opposite ways. Prado, back at lightweight, starts fast and fades, and has never been stopped; Bonfim, finished in each of his last three fights, tends to win the striking and still get caught before the first-round horn. The fight asks whether Bonfim's cleaner, busier boxing can survive the chaos Prado needs to create early. If Bonfim reaches the second round intact, his volume should take over; if a scramble opens late in the first, Prado has the finish he has been missing.

Francisco Prado

Attribute

Ismael Bonfim

246-year gap

Age

5'10"+2" Prado

Height

5'8"

69"

Reach

+2.5" Bonfim71.5"

38"+3" Prado

Leg Reach

35"

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

12-5-0

Pro Record

20-7-0

1-5 (6 bouts)

UFC Record

2-4 (6 bouts, plus a Contender Series win)

UFC Knockdowns Absorbed

182 (decision loss)

Days Since Last Fight

77 (submission loss)

Welterweight

Last Three Bouts

Lightweight

Finish-first striker

Fighting Style

Structured boxer

The tape splits. Prado is two inches taller with three more inches of leg; Bonfim has two and a half more inches of reach (71.5 to 69), so the longer arms belong to the shorter man. Prado is six years younger at 24 and returns to lightweight after three bouts at welterweight; Bonfim, who has fought all six UFC bouts at 155, is the more active of the two — 77 days removed from his last fight to Prado's 182.

Venue Factor
The Meta APEX's 25-foot Octagon cuts both ways. Bonfim lands 90% of his UFC significant strikes at distance and likes room to build combinations, and a smaller cage gives him less space to reset after them. Prado wants the fight to change phases — scrambles, clinch breaks, takedown attempts — and a tighter cage produces more of those moments.

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Francisco Prado

Pro Record

12-5-0

UFC Record

1-5 across six bouts since February 2023

Streak

Four straight losses, all decisions — latest to Charles Radtke (Apr 2026)

Finish Rate

100% (12 of 12 wins) — 6 KO/TKO, 6 submissions

Avg Fight Time

13:11

Chin · Never stopped — 0 knockdowns absorbed in 79 UFC minutes, all five losses on the cardsSOS · UFC mid-cardFinish-first striker

Prado arrived as one of the youngest fighters on the roster — 11-0 at 20, with eight first-round finishes on the South American circuit — and has spent three and a half years learning the hard way. His one UFC win was a first-round knockout of Ottman Azaitar in July 2023: 38 significant strikes, a knockdown, done at 4:05. The other five fights all went fifteen minutes and all went to his opponent: Jamie Mullarkey, Daniel Zellhuber (who out-landed him 120–90), Jake Matthews, Nikolay Veretennikov on a split decision, and Charles Radtke, who took him down four times and controlled him for 9:07 in April. The last three came at welterweight, and he returns to lightweight here. The pattern is consistent: Prado starts well — he has out-landed his opponent in four of six UFC first rounds — then loses the second and third. He has never been knocked down in the Octagon.

Ismael Bonfim

Pro Record

20-7-0

UFC Record

2-4 across six bouts since January 2023, plus a Contender Series win

Streak

Three straight losses, all inside the distance — latest a D'Arce choke by Axel Sola (Jul 2026)

Finish Rate

65% (13 of 20 wins) — 9 KO/TKO, 4 submissions

Avg Fight Time

7:43 in the UFC

Chin · Vulnerable — finished in each of his last three fightsSOS · UFC mid-cardStructured boxer

Bonfim spent a decade on the Brazilian circuit and in LFA — including a 13-fight win streak that ran from 2015 into his UFC debut — before earning his contract on the 2022 Contender Series, on the same episode as his brother Gabriel. His debut was the best moment of his career: a switch flying knee that knocked out Terrance McKinney at 2:17 of Round 2 at UFC 283, a Performance of the Night. The run since has been rough. Benoît Saint Denis submitted him late in the first round, he out-landed Vinc Pichel 111–61 for a decision, and then he lost three straight inside the distance: a doctor's stoppage at the end of the first round against Nazim Sadykhov, a second-round knockout by Chris Padilla, and a D'Arce choke by Axel Sola at 4:44 of the first. The striking numbers remain the better set in this fight.

Francisco Prado

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Knockdown Exchange

Knockdowns dealt vs absorbed.

Ismael Bonfim

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Francisco Pradosignature weapons

Punches (KO/TKO)Five first-round knockouts and one in Round 2 — latest Ottman Azaitar at 4:05 of Round 1, July 2023

×6

Rear-Naked ChokeFernando Silveira (Round 1, 2019) and Hugo Nogueira (Round 2, 2021)

×2

Front Chokes and TrianglesA guillotine (Octavio Jobet, 0:34), a triangle (Rodrigo Gigena, 0:41) and a shoulder choke (Mauricio Pare, Round 3)

×3

ArmbarGabriel Ribeiro at 1:51 of Round 1, 2021

×1

Ismael Bonfimsignature weapons

Flying KneeTerrance McKinney at 2:17 of Round 2, UFC 283 — a Performance of the Night on his UFC debut

×1

Strikes (KO/TKO)Eight more knockouts on the Brazilian circuit, three of them doctor's stoppages

×8

Chokes and LocksAnaconda, kimura, arm-triangle and triangle — none since 2019

×4

Volume at Range111 significant strikes landed on Vinc Pichel over three rounds — his only UFC decision win

×0

Francisco Prado

Charles Radtke

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: veteran

R3 (5:00)

UFC 327: Procházka vs. Ulberg — Apr 11, 2026 (welterweight)

Nikolay Veretennikov

Decision — Split

Opponent context: veteran

R3 (5:00)

UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 — Jul 19, 2025 (welterweight)

Jake Matthews

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: veteran

R3 (5:00)

UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 — Feb 8, 2025 (welterweight)

Daniel Zellhuber

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: prospect

R3 (5:00)

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 — Feb 24, 2024

Ottman Azaitar

KO/TKO — Punches

Opponent context: veteran

R1 (4:05)

UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno Silva — Jul 15, 2023

Pattern

Four straight decision losses and five in six UFC fights, but always the same shape: Prado wins or splits the first round (111–100 on significant strikes across six UFC first rounds) and loses the second and third (97–128 and 83–113). He has never been knocked down in the UFC or finished as a pro — the losses are about output and position, not damage. Radtke's 9:07 of control in April was the clearest example.

Ismael Bonfim

Axel Sola

Submission — D'Arce choke

Opponent context: prospect

R1 (4:44)

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov — Jul 25, 2026

Chris Padilla

KO/TKO — Strikes

Opponent context: veteran

R2 (4:30)

UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown — Nov 8, 2025

Nazim Sadykhov

KO/TKO — Doctor's stoppage

Opponent context: veteran

R1 (5:00)

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues — Feb 15, 2025

Vinc Pichel

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: veteran

R3 (5:00)

UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg — May 4, 2024

Benoît Saint Denis

Submission — Face crank

Opponent context: ranked

R1 (4:48)

UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov — Jul 1, 2023

Pattern

Three straight losses inside the distance, and three of his four UFC losses ended in the final 20 seconds of Round 1 — Saint Denis at 4:48, Sola at 4:44 and Sadykhov at the bell. Bonfim usually wins the striking while it lasts: he out-landed his opponent in four of six UFC first rounds. What he has not done is protect himself in scrambles — two of the four losses were chokes.

Francisco Prado

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Ismael Bonfim

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Critical Insight
Both charts are scoped to career wins. Prado has never won a decision: all 12 wins are finishes, nine of them in Round 1, and his only UFC win (Azaitar) came there too. Bonfim's 20 are spread across the fight — 6 in Round 1, 5 in Round 2, 2 in Round 3 and 7 decisions — with 9 knockouts and 4 submissions. Prado needs the fight to break early; Bonfim can win it however it unfolds.

Opposition strength (no shared opponents)

Without a reliable shared-opponent table, compare who each fighter has been tested against using SOS tier, UFC sample size, and recent elite-tier form — not raw records alone.

Factor	Francisco	Ismael
Strength of schedule (SOS tier)	UFC mid-card — Mullarkey, Zellhuber, Matthews, Veretennikov and Radtke — five decision losses to UFC lightweights and welterweights	UFC mid-card — Saint Denis, Pichel, Sadykhov, Padilla and Sola — plus the McKinney knockout on his debut
UFC sample	1-5 across six bouts since February 2023	2-4 across six bouts since January 2023, plus a Contender Series win
Recent ranked / elite touches (last 5)	0 elite · 4 veteran tier	0 elite · 3 veteran tier
Form-window difficulty edge: Fighter A (9 vs 7 tier points in listed bouts).
Last three opponents	Charles Radtke, Nikolay Veretennikov, Jake Matthews	Axel Sola, Chris Padilla, Nazim Sadykhov

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and UFC experience before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

SLpM 25% · StrAcc 30% · StrDef 30% · SApM 15%

Francisco

Ismaelfew UFC fights

Bonfim by 11. His published line — 5.10 landed per minute at 54% with 63% defence — beats Prado on every input (3.68, 44%, 54%). In UFC fights alone the gap narrows: 4.92 landed at 55%, 53% defence and 4.27 absorbed per minute, almost level with Prado's 4.31.

Grappling

TD/15 25% · TDAcc 25% · TDDef 30% · Sub/15 20%

Francisco

Ismaelfew UFC fights

Bonfim by 12, on takedown defence (77% to 40%) and a slightly higher takedown rate. Prado's edge is submission attempts — 0.76 per fifteen to zero — and six career submission wins. Opponents have controlled Bonfim for 11:41 in six UFC fights, and two of his four UFC losses were chokes.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

0.0

Francisco

Ismaelfew UFC fights

Bonfim by 11.5 — both halves lean his way on paper.

Metric	Francisco	Ismael
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	13:11 (6 UFC bouts)	7:43 (6 UFC bouts)
Strike Differential per Round (R1 / R2 / R3)	+1.8 / −6.2 / −6.0	+0.8 / +1.7 / +20.0few UFC fights
Opponent Control per 15 min	3:16	3:47
UFC Losses Inside the Distance	0 of 5	4 of 4
Days Since Last Fight	182	77

Archetype Base Rate

Finish-first striker 46%54% Structured boxer

MMA Analytics model · Bonfim's cleaner striking and takedown defence set against Prado's finishing record, his unbroken chin, and Bonfim's three straight losses inside the distance.

Francisco PradoIsmael Bonfim

Lightweight

· 57 fighters

Rank bars use the recorded division cohort. Where a rank is unavailable, the comparison shows the difference from the published division average; the white marker denotes equality. Percentage differences are percentage points (pp). Higher is not always better: fewer strikes absorbed is preferable. Missing benchmarks are not estimated.

Stat	Francisco	Francisco comparison	Div avg	Ismael comparison	Ismael
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	3.68	-0.83 vs avg	4.51	Not availablefew UFC fights	5.10 (UFC-only 4.92)
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	44%	-3.80 pp vs avg	47.8%	Not availablefew UFC fights	54% (UFC-only 55%)
Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit.	54%	+1.60 pp vs avg	52.4%	Not availablefew UFC fights	63% (UFC-only 53%)
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	4.31	+0.16 vs avg	4.15	Not availablefew UFC fights	3.96 (UFC-only 4.27)
KD AvgKD AvgKnockdown Average — knockdowns scored per 15 minutes. The one-shot power indicator.	0.19	-0.32 vs avg	0.51	Not availablefew UFC fights	0.49 (UFC-only 0.32)
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	0.76	-0.91 vs avg	1.67	Not availablefew UFC fights	1.22 (UFC-only 1.30)
TD Acc	19% (4 of 21)	Not available	—	Not availablefew UFC fights	33% (5 of 15)
TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed.	40% (9 of 15 conceded)	Not available	—	Not availablefew UFC fights	77% (UFC-only 73%)
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	0.76	+0.28 vs avg	0.48	-0.48 vs avg	0.00

Statistical Verdict
Bonfim's published line beats Prado nearly everywhere, but part of that edge comes from his Contender Series win. In UFC fights alone he lands 4.92 per minute at 55% and defends 53% of strikes — still the busier and more accurate striker, but with defence level with Prado's 54% and strikes absorbed almost identical (4.27 to 4.31). The clear, stable gaps are takedown defence (73–77% against 40%) and submission threat (0.76 attempts per fifteen for Prado, none for Bonfim). Both men land fewer takedowns than the lightweight average.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

⚠ R3: single-fight sample for Ismael Bonfim

Control Time per Round (sec)

Francisco Prado

Prado starts fast and fades: 18.5 landed at 50.9% in Round 1, down to 38.2% accuracy by Round 3 — and opponents out-land him 128–97 in second rounds and 113–83 in thirds.
He is a leg-kicker: 27% of his first-round strikes and 34% of his second-round strikes go to the legs.
Round 1 is where he does damage — his only UFC knockdown, the Azaitar finish, and two of his four UFC submission attempts.

Ismael Bonfim

Bonfim lands 57.3% in Round 1 and has out-landed his opponent in four of six UFC first rounds — yet three of his four UFC losses ended in the last 20 seconds of that round.
His second round is pure boxing: 98.8% of his strikes at distance, 27 landed per round, and the McKinney knee.
Only one UFC fight has reached Round 3 — the Pichel decision, 41 landed — so his late-fight line is a single fight.

Critical Insight
The round lines cross. Prado's best round is the first and his worst are the second and third; Bonfim is at his most accurate in the first but most exposed at the end of it, then gets busier as the fight goes on. If Bonfim reaches Round 2 intact, the numbers tilt the fight his way; Prado's window is the first five minutes.

Strike targeting

Francisco

50%

22%

28%

Head

50%

Body

22%

Legs

28%

Ismael

64%

21%

15%

Head

64%

Body

21%

Legs

15%

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

FranciscoIsmael

79%Distance91%

7%Clinch8%

14%Ground1%

Share of significant strikes landed at distance, in the clinch and on the ground across each fighter's UFC rounds, weighted by strike volume.

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much

Open SpaceIsmael owns it

90% of Bonfim's UFC strikes land at distance, with a 2.5-inch reach edge and 54% accuracy against 44%

Pocket / ExchangesIsmael owns it

Bonfim's nine knockouts and higher output against Prado's unbroken chin

ClinchEven

Neither man lives here — 7% of Prado's UFC strikes, 8% of Bonfim's

GroundFrancisco owns it

Prado's 0.76 submission attempts per 15 and six submission wins against a fighter choked out twice in the UFC

Path to Victory

Francisco Prado

Make it messy early — leg kicks, clinch breaks, takedown attempts and scrambles in the first round, where he out-lands opponents and Bonfim has been finished three times — and find a neck or a counter before Bonfim's boxing takes over.

Why they win

Finishing record

Twelve wins, twelve finishes — six knockouts, six submissions — and nine of them in Round 1.

Durability

Never stopped as a pro and never knocked down in the UFC.

Submission threat

0.76 attempts per fifteen minutes against a fighter who has been choked out twice in the UFC.

Youth and frame

Six years younger, two inches taller and three inches longer in the legs.

Back at lightweight

His one UFC win came at 155; his last three fights, all losses, were at welterweight.

The gameplan

1
Kick the lead leg
A quarter to a third of his early-round strikes go to the legs; slow Bonfim's entries.
2
Force phase changes
Clinch, break and re-engage; shoot when Bonfim plants to throw.
3
Hunt the neck in scrambles
Two of Bonfim's four UFC losses were chokes, both late in Round 1.
4
Win the first round clearly
He out-lands opponents 111–100 in UFC first rounds; bank it.
5
Stay busy late
Don't give away Rounds 2 and 3 as he did against Zellhuber and Radtke.

Path to Victory

Ismael Bonfim

Get through the end of Round 1, stay off the mat and out of front headlocks, then win the second and third rounds at range with the combinations that out-landed Pichel 111–61.

Why they win

Striking volume

5.10 landed per minute at 54% (4.92 at 55% in UFC fights) against Prado's 3.68 at 44%.

Takedown defence

77% — and Prado has landed 4 of 21 UFC takedown attempts.

Late rounds

Prado has been out-landed 241–180 across his UFC second and third rounds.

Knockout power

Nine career knockouts, including a Performance of the Night flying knee.

Reach and activity

Two and a half inches more reach, and 77 days since his last fight to Prado's 182.

The gameplan

1
Jab and exit
Use the reach edge; 90% of his UFC strikes land at distance.
2
Guard the end of Round 1
Three of his four UFC losses ended between 4:44 and 5:00 of the opening round.
3
Sprawl and circle off
Trust his takedown defence and keep his head out of front headlocks.
4
Build volume in Round 2
27 landed per second round in the UFC, against a fighter who fades.
5
Look for the knee
Prado's pressure and level changes invite the knee that flattened McKinney.

Danger Zone

How Francisco Prado loses

Bonfim survives Round 1 and out-boxes him for ten minutes — the Zellhuber and Matthews template, and the model's largest single outcome (Bonfim by decision, 28).
He chases the finish, over-commits, and runs into the kind of knee that knocked out McKinney.
His takedown attempts fail — 4 of 21 in the UFC — and he spends the fight at range, where Bonfim is better.

Danger Zone

How Ismael Bonfim loses

Late in Round 1 again: a scramble or a front headlock, and Prado finds the kind of choke that ended the Saint Denis and Sola fights.
Prado's leg kicks and pressure slow him down, and a counter lands before he gets to Round 2.
The losing streak shows up in his defence — he has been finished in each of his last three fights.

Prado's all-or-nothing record

Twelve Finishes, Five Decisions

Prado has never won a professional fight on the scorecards, and he has never lost one any other way. All 12 wins are finishes; all 5 losses are decisions. He either ends the fight or loses the minutes.

12 & 5

Prado's wins (all finishes) and losses (all decisions)

Where Bonfim has lost

The Last Twenty Seconds

Saint Denis submitted him at 4:48 of Round 1, Sola at 4:44, and the doctor stopped the Sadykhov fight at the end of the round. Bonfim wins most first rounds on volume and still gets caught before the horn.

3 of 4

Bonfim's UFC losses that ended in the last 20 seconds of Round 1

Prado's round split

Strong Starts, Lost Finishes

Prado out-lands opponents 111–100 in UFC first rounds and is out-landed 241–180 across the second and third. He has lost every UFC fight that reached the final bell.

+11 / −61

Prado's UFC strike differential, Round 1 vs Rounds 2–3

Bonfim's defence, read carefully

Two Stat Lines

Bonfim's published line (63% striking defence, 3.96 absorbed per minute) includes his Contender Series win. In UFC fights alone he defends 53% and absorbs 4.27 — almost exactly Prado's figures. The volume edge is real; the defensive edge is smaller than it looks.

63% → 53%

Bonfim's striking defence, published vs UFC-only

Prado's weight class

Back to 155

Prado went 1-2 at lightweight, then 0-3 at welterweight against Matthews, Veretennikov and Radtke. He returns to 155 for this fight against a man who has fought all six of his UFC bouts there.

0-3

Prado at welterweight

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things

Bonfim is the better striker and the slight favourite, but the edge is smaller than his published numbers suggest — in UFC fights alone his defence is level with Prado's.

Prado has never won a decision and never been stopped. His window is the first round, the round in which Bonfim has been finished three times in the closing seconds.

If it reaches the second round the fight tilts toward Bonfim, whose volume grows as Prado's fades; the model has it going the distance 44 times in 100.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Francisco Prado KO/TKO — 14%Francisco Prado Decision — 16%Francisco Prado Submission — 16%Ismael Bonfim KO/TKO — 18%Ismael Bonfim Decision — 28%Ismael Bonfim Submission — 8%

Each square = 1 model percentage point. Francisco Prado gold · Ismael Bonfim orange · color opacity: 100% = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

The striking gap

Bonfim's higher output and accuracy make him the likelier winner of any round fought at range — the core of his 54%.

Prado's late-round fade

Out-landed in four of five UFC second rounds and four of five third rounds. That is why Bonfim's decision bucket (28) is the largest outcome.

Bonfim's first-round problem

Three of four UFC losses ended in the last 20 seconds of Round 1, two of them by choke. Prado's submission share (16) reflects it.

Prado's chin

Never stopped as a pro and never knocked down in the UFC, which keeps Bonfim's knockout share (18) below his decision share.

Two losing streaks

Four straight for Prado, three for Bonfim. Neither man's form can be trusted, which holds conviction at 3/10.

Fight Scripts

of simulations

The First-Round Scramble

Prado makes the opening round chaotic and finds the finish — a choke in a scramble late in the round, as Saint Denis and Sola did, or a counter that drops Bonfim. Prado's 16 submissions and 14 knockouts.

Scripted outcomes for Francisco Prado vs Ismael Bonfim — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Francisco Prado win probability

14%

16%

KO/TKODECSUB

Fourteen. Six knockouts, five of them in Round 1, against a fighter finished in each of his last three bouts.
Sixteen. Prado has never won a professional decision and has lost five UFC fights on the cards; this bucket needs him to win the first round and steal one more.
Sixteen, level with his decision share. Six submission wins and 0.76 attempts per fifteen against a fighter choked out twice in the UFC.

Ismael Bonfim win probability

18%

28%

KO/TKODECSUB

Eighteen. Nine career knockouts, including the McKinney flying knee — against a chin that has never been cracked.
Twenty-eight, the largest single outcome. Bonfim out-lands Prado on volume, and Prado has been out-landed in four of five UFC second and third rounds.
Eight. Four career submissions, none since 2019.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round

Francisco

Ismael

29-28 Bonfim

Prado takes the first round; Bonfim's volume takes the second and third

Most likely card if it goes the distance — 28 of the model's 44 decisions go to Bonfim

30-27 Bonfim

Bonfim out-lands him in all three rounds

The Zellhuber-fight version

29-28 Prado

Prado wins Round 1 and steals another with takedowns and leg kicks

16 of the 44 decisions — it would be his first professional decision win

Model and price

Francisco Prado

Freshness unverified

Model win probability: 46%
Fair odds: +117

Reference quote: -106 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 2.17

Estimated EV: -10.6%
Edge vs no-vig market: -3.6 pp

Ismael Bonfim

Freshness unverified

Model win probability: 54%
Fair odds: -117

Reference quote: -110 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 1.85

Estimated EV: +3.1%
Edge vs no-vig market: +3.6 pp

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Francisco Prado

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 2.18 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Ismael Bonfim

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 1.86 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Analyst price notes

Written against the prices of October 5.

Bonfim is a bet at −117 or better, and BetOnline −110 clears that bar. Prado at −106 is shorter than the model's +117 fair price. The method props are the sharper read: Bonfim by decision is the model's single most likely outcome (28%, fair +257), and Prado by submission (16%, fair +525) is the one most likely to be under-priced if the market sees only his losing streak.

Conviction

3/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

A lean to the better striker, capped at 3/10 because Bonfim has been finished in three straight fights — three of his four UFC losses in the closing seconds of a first round — and Prado has never been stopped. Lean: Ismael Bonfim.

What backs the lean

Bonfim's volume and accuracy — 5.10 landed per minute at 54% (4.92 at 55% in UFC fights) against 3.68 at 44%.
Prado's fade: out-landed 241–180 across his UFC second and third rounds, and 0-5 in UFC fights that went the distance.
Takedown defence of 77% against a fighter who has landed 4 of 21 UFC takedown attempts.
Prado has not won since July 2023 and returns to lightweight after three losses at welterweight.

What limits it

Bonfim has been finished in each of his last three fights, and three of his four UFC losses ended in the last 20 seconds of Round 1.
Two of those losses were chokes; Prado has six submission wins and 0.76 attempts per fifteen.
Prado has never been stopped as a pro.
Bonfim's defensive numbers include his Contender Series bout — 53% striking defence in the UFC alone.

Final Assessment

In roughly 54 of 100 simulations Ismael Bonfim gets past the round that has cost him most. He survives the first five minutes and out-boxes a fading Prado — the Pichel fight, against a man who has lost every UFC bout that went the distance (28%). Sometimes the pressure lets him land the knee or counter that stopped McKinney (18%), and occasionally he finds a submission of his own (8%).

In the other 46, Francisco Prado gets the chaotic first round he needs. Most often it ends on the mat — a front headlock or a back take late in the round, the finishes that beat Bonfim against Saint Denis and Sola (16%) — or with a counter against a fighter stopped three times in a row (14%). The rest is Prado's first professional decision win (16%).

On October 10 at the Meta APEX the model takes Bonfim narrowly. He is the better striker in every round after the first, while Prado has not won since 2023 and returns to lightweight after three losses at welterweight. Conviction is only 3/10: Bonfim's last three fights all ended early, and Prado has never been finished.

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