Lupita Godinez vs Ketlen Souza – UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan Fight Analytics & Prediction

CO-MAIN EVENT · WOMEN'S STRAWWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan

Lupita Godinez

“Loopy”

14W6L

Pressure Wrestler

…

Ketlen Souza

17W6L

Counter Boxer

…

Three takedowns per fifteen minutes against a 54% sprawl — one mechanism, and everything else is noise

Women's StrawweightUFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada, United StatesOctober 10, 2026UFC Apex — 25ft cage

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

One mechanism decides this fight, and both women know exactly what it is. Lupita Godinez averages 2.99 takedowns per fifteen minutes and 95 seconds of control in each of the first two rounds; Ketlen Souza defends 54% of takedowns and attempts 0.45 herself. That is the whole matchup, stated once. Everything else runs the other way and runs close: Souza is the more accurate striker at 57% to 49%, an inch taller with two inches more reach, and lands more per round in the second and third — 25.0 and 24.7 against 22.4 and 27.0 — with nine career knockouts against Godinez's one. Souza also arrives on the better run, two straight wins including a 94-second knockout of Ariane Carnelossi, while Godinez is 2-3 in her last five and coming off a second-round submission loss to Tatiana Suarez. The counter to that form reading is opposition: Godinez's three defeats in the sample are to Suarez, Mackenzie Dern and Virna Jandiroba, three of the best grapplers in the division's history, while Souza's two are split decisions. The tiebreaker is that Souza has been submitted twice in her career and has never faced anyone who takes her down three times in fifteen minutes. Model: Godinez 60% / Souza 40%, conviction 5/10.

Lupita Godinez

Attribute

Ketlen Souza

Age

+1 year Souza32

5'2" (62")

Height

5'3" (63")

61"

Reach

+2" Souza63"

35"

Leg Reach

35"

Pressure wrestling behind a volume jab

Fighting Style

Counter boxing with real knockout power

Aguascalientes, Mexico

Origin

Manaus, Brazil

2-3 in her last five — all three losses to elite grapplers

Recent Form

Two straight wins, including a 94-second knockout

One — Tatiana Suarez, April 2026

Times Submitted

Two — Karine Silva and Fabiulane Melo

One inch of height and two of reach separate them, with identical leg reach and identical age — this is one of the flattest physical sheets on the card. What that means in practice is that neither woman can win the range battle by frame, and the fight will be decided by what each of them does with equal space. Souza uses it to counter: 84.6% of her Round-1 offence lands at distance and only 2.6% touches the ground. Godinez uses it to close: 95 seconds of control in each of the first two rounds, and a takedown average nearly seven times Souza's.

Venue Factor
The UFC Apex 25-foot cage is worth more to this fight than to almost anything else on the card. Godinez is a pressure wrestler whose entire game is getting an opponent's back to the fence, and five fewer feet of retreat in every direction is a direct upgrade. Souza's counter-boxing wants space to work in and this is the smallest room the promotion has.

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Lupita Godinez

Pro Record

14-6-0

UFC Record

9-6 — fifteen Octagon appearances

Streak

Coming off a submission loss to Tatiana Suarez

Finish Rate

21% (3 of 14 wins) — 1 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 11 decisions

Avg Fight Time

13:21 in the UFC

Chin · Strong — never knocked outSOS · Elite — the hardest schedule in the divisionPressure wrestler

The most schedule-punished fighter in the division, and one of the most durable. Godinez has fourteen Octagon appearances — including the famous two-fights-in-one-week debut in 2021 — and her six career losses read like a list of the best grapplers at 115 pounds: Tatiana Suarez, Mackenzie Dern, Virna Jandiroba, Angela Hill. Her wins are almost as good: Jessica Andrade in August 2025, Tabatha Ricci, Emily Ducote, Cynthia Calvillo. She has never been knocked out. What she does is unglamorous and repeatable — 2.99 takedowns per fifteen minutes at a low 16% conversion rate, 95 seconds of control in each of the first two rounds, and 76-79% of her landed strikes going to the head from a volume jab that rises every round: 18.1 landed in a first, 22.4 in a second, 27.0 in a third. Eleven of her fourteen wins are decisions, and that is not an accident.

Ketlen Souza

Pro Record

17-6-0

UFC Record

4-3 — seven Octagon appearances

Streak

Two straight wins

Finish Rate

65% (11 of 17 wins) — 9 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 6 decisions

Avg Fight Time

9:29 in the UFC

Chin · Solid — one career knockout lossSOS · GoodCounter boxer

A Manaus knockout artist who took the long road. Souza built a 12-4 record across Brazilian regional promotions and two Invicta title-length fights before the UFC called in 2024, and her Octagon run has been genuinely up and down: a decision over Marnic Mann, a first-round submission of Yazmin Jauregui, then back-to-back split-decision losses to Angela Hill and Piera Rodriguez, then two straight wins — a unanimous decision over Bruna Brasil in February 2026 and a 94-second knockout of Ariane Carnelossi in June, avenging a 2019 regional defeat. Nine of her seventeen wins are knockouts and her striking accuracy of 57% is the best number in this fight. The hole is underneath: 54% takedown defence, 0.45 takedown attempts per fifteen minutes of her own, and two career submission losses.

Lupita Godinez

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Knockdown Exchange

KD dealt vs absorbed

Ketlen Souza

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Lupita Godinezsignature weapons

The Fence Takedown2.99 takedowns per fifteen minutes with 95 seconds of control in each of the first two rounds — nearly seven times Souza's takedown volume, in the smallest cage the promotion uses

×8

The Volume Jab76-79% of her landed strikes go to the head and her output rises every round — 18.1, 22.4, 27.0 — which is how eleven of fourteen wins ended on the cards

×11

Ketlen Souzasignature weapons

The Counter RightNine career knockouts including a 94-second finish of Ariane Carnelossi in June 2026, behind the best accuracy figure in this fight at 57%

×9

Early SubmissionA first-round finish of Yazmin Jauregui at UFC 306 — her scrambles are live even though she does not hunt the mat

×2

Lupita Godinez

Tatiana Suarez

Submission

RR2 (2:29)

UFC 327 — Apr 11, 2026

Jessica Andrade

Decision — Unanimous

RR3

UFC 319 — Aug 16, 2025

Julia Polastri

Decision — Unanimous

RR3

UFC FN: Moreno vs. Erceg — Mar 29, 2025

Mackenzie Dern

Decision — Unanimous

RR3

UFC FN: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov — Aug 3, 2024

Virna Jandiroba

Decision — Unanimous

RR3

UFC FN: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot — Mar 30, 2024

Pattern

Two-and-three on the surface and much better than that underneath. The three defeats are to Tatiana Suarez, Mackenzie Dern and Virna Jandiroba — three of the most decorated grapplers the division has ever had, and two of them former title challengers. The two wins include Jessica Andrade, a former champion. Nobody at 115 pounds has had a harder five-fight stretch, and she has never once been knocked out in it.

Ketlen Souza

Ariane Carnelossi

KO/TKO

RR1 (1:34)

UFC FN: Muhammad vs. Bonfim — Jun 6, 2026

Bruna Brasil

Decision — Unanimous

RR3

UFC FN: Bautista vs. Oliveira — Feb 7, 2026

Piera Rodriguez

Decision — Split

RR3

UFC FN: Taira vs. Park — Aug 2, 2025

Angela Hill

Decision — Split

RR3

UFC FN: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues — Feb 15, 2025

Yazmin Jauregui

Submission

RR1 (3:02)

UFC 306 — Sep 14, 2024

Pattern

The most encouraging recent sample of the two: a unanimous decision over Bruna Brasil and then a 94-second knockout of Ariane Carnelossi, the woman who stopped her back in 2019. Before that, two split-decision losses to Angela Hill and Piera Rodriguez — close, contested, neither one-sided. She is trending up and she is finishing again, which is the version of Souza that makes this a fight.

Lupita Godinez

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Ketlen Souza

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Critical Insight
Two charts that could hardly disagree more, and both close exactly — Godinez's 11 decisions plus 2 submissions plus 1 knockout is her 14 wins, Souza's 9 knockouts plus 2 submissions plus 6 decisions is her 17. Seventy-nine percent of everything Godinez has won came on the scorecards; fifty-three percent of everything Souza has won came by strike, and eight of her eleven finishes landed in the first two rounds. Read together they define the fight's clock: Souza's danger is concentrated early and Godinez's edge accrues late, and the only way a decision-machine loses to a knockout artist is by being available in the first ten minutes. The number that decides whether she is available is not on either chart — it is Souza's 54% takedown defence.

Common Opponents

Opponent	Lupita	Ketlen
Angela Hill	L· Unanimous decision (Aug 2022)	L· Split decision (Feb 2025)
The only shared opponent on the two logs. Both lost, but Souza's was a split three years later — a rough parity signal that argues against a wide line
Tatiana Suarez, Mackenzie Dern, Virna Jandiroba (grappler proxies)	Lto all three — one submission, two decisions	—has not faced an elite wrestler in the UFC
Godinez's ceiling is set by the division's best grapplers. The relevant question is that she has fought three of them and Souza has fought none
Karine Silva and Fabiulane Melo (submission proxies)	—never faced	L· Submission R1 to both
Souza has been submitted twice, both in the opening round, against an opponent who attempts 0.82 submissions per fifteen minutes off 2.99 takedowns

0.0

Ketlen

A 12.5-point gap that maps cleanly onto 60/40. The composites and the model agree here, which is rarer than it sounds — the grappling mismatch is large enough that nothing else has to do much work.

Metric	Lupita	Ketlen
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	13:21 (UFC)	9:29 (UFC)
Pace Tier	4.43 SLpM — rising every round	4.11 SLpM — peaks in R2
R3/R1 OutputR3/R1 OutputThird-round output as % of first-round output. Above 100% = builds into the fight; below = fades.	27.0 / 18.1 — up 49%	24.7 / 15.6 — up 58%, on 3 roundssmall sample
Control Time (R1/R2)	95 / 94 seconds	15 / 61 seconds
Champ RoundsChamp RoundsEvidence from rounds 4-5 — only fighters with five-round experience have data here.	N/A — 3-round bout (14 UFC appearances)	N/A — 3-round bout (two Invicta 5-rounders)

Archetype Base Rate

Pressure Wrestler 60%40% Counter Boxer

No archetype base-rate row exists for this pairing · No historical archetype rate is applied. The 60/40 is built on one collision — 2.99 takedowns per fifteen minutes and 95 seconds of round-one control against a 54% takedown defence, in the promotion's smallest cage — plus twice the Octagon sample and a materially harder schedule. It is capped by Souza's nine knockouts, her eight-point accuracy edge, two inches of reach, and the fact that she is the one arriving on a two-fight win streak.

Lupita GodinezKetlen Souza

Women's Strawweight

· 29 fighters

Stat	Lupita	Lupita rank	Div avg	Ketlen rank	Ketlen
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	4.43	—	~3.86	—	4.11
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	49%	—	~43%	—	57%
Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit.	62%	—	~58%	—	53%
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	3.94	—	~4.06	—	3.89
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	2.99	—	~1.92	—	0.45
TD Acc	16%	—	~34%	—	None credited
TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed.	77%	—	~64%	—	54%
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	0.82	—	~0.56	—	0.23
UFC Record	8-6 in 14 bouts	—	—	—	4-3 in 7 bouts
Career Finishes	3 of 14 (21%)	—	—	—	11 of 17 (65%)
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	13:21	—	—	—	9:29

Statistical Verdict
Godinez is above the divisional baseline on takedown volume by more than 50%, on takedown defence by thirteen points, and on submission threat by nearly half again — and below it on takedown accuracy, which is the honest caveat: she gets there by attempting a lot rather than by landing cleanly. Souza is fourteen points above baseline on striking accuracy and ten points below it on takedown defence, and those two rows are her fight in miniature. She is the better striker in a bout that will not be decided standing unless she makes it one.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

Control Time per Round (sec)

Lupita Godinez

95 and 94 seconds of control in the first two rounds — roughly a third of each round spent with an opponent pinned — and it is the most consistent control profile in the division.
Her output rises every round: 18.1, 22.4, 27.0 landed, with accuracy peaking at 52.9% in the second. Eleven of fourteen career wins are decisions, and this curve is why.
A pure head-hunter with the jab: 76.8%, 79.4% and 77.2% of landed strikes go upstairs, and only 4.6-7.5% to the legs. She wins rounds by touching faces and holding people down, not by damage.

Ketlen Souza

The best accuracy figure in the fight and it arrives immediately: 62.4% in an average opening round, with her only knockdown average (0.20) attached to it. Her first five minutes are her most dangerous.
Control time is 15 seconds in a first round and 17 in a third — she is not holding anyone anywhere, and the 61-second second round is the outlier rather than the pattern.
Her body work is the most committed in this bout: 25.6%, 26.7% and 31.1% of landed strikes to the body across the three rounds, against Godinez's 15.7-18.2%.
Rounds 2 and 3 rest on three rounds of data apiece. The 25.0 and 24.7 figures are real but the intervals are wide, and she has averaged just 9:29 per UFC fight.

Critical Insight
Souza is more accurate in every round and Godinez is busier in two of three, but the column that decides this is neither: 95 and 94 seconds of control against 15 and 61. Godinez spends roughly a third of the first two rounds with her opponent pinned, and Souza has never had to solve that — her takedown defence reads 54%, ten points under the divisional baseline, and she attempts 0.45 takedowns of her own. The one place the table favours Souza is the opening five minutes, where her 62.4% accuracy and 0.20 knockdown average are the sharpest numbers either woman carries.

Strike Targeting (career avg)

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Range Profile — where the minutes go

LupitaKetlen

85%Distance86%

10%Clinch12%

5%Ground2%

Share of significant-strike volume by range from UFC career data. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much

Open SpaceKetlen owns it

Two inches of reach and 57% accuracy against 49% — Souza's 62.4% opening round is the sharpest striking figure in the fight

Pocket / ExchangesKetlen owns it

Nine career knockouts against one, with a 0.20 Round-1 knockdown average against a fighter who has never been stopped

ClinchLupita owns it

95 and 94 seconds of control in the first two rounds against 15 and 61, in the promotion's smallest cage

GroundLupita owns it

0.82 submission attempts per fifteen against 0.23, aimed at a fighter submitted twice in Round 1 with no offensive wrestling

Path to Victory

Lupita Godinez

Put her on the fence in the first two minutes. A 54% takedown defence in a 25-foot cage is the whole fight.

Why they win

2.99 takedowns per fifteen against a 54% sprawl

Nearly seven times Souza's takedown volume, aimed at a defence ten points below the divisional baseline. The single most decisive matchup number on this card.

95 seconds of control in each of the first two rounds

Roughly a third of every round spent with an opponent pinned, against 15 and 61. Souza has never faced this and has no offensive wrestling to answer with.

The 25-foot Apex cage

Five fewer feet of retreat in every direction, for a pressure wrestler whose 16% takedown accuracy says she gets there by volume and fence work rather than clean entries.

Twice the Octagon sample

Fourteen UFC appearances to seven, 13:21 of average fight time to 9:29, and a schedule that reads Suarez, Dern, Jandiroba, Andrade, Hill.

Rising output and better defence

18.1, 22.4, 27.0 landed across three rounds behind 62% striking defence — nine points better than Souza's.

Souza has been submitted twice

Both in the opening round, by Karine Silva and Fabiulane Melo — against an opponent who attempts 0.82 submissions per fifteen minutes off her takedowns.

The gameplan

1
Change levels in the first ninety seconds
Souza's most dangerous window is her opening round — 62.4% accuracy, 0.20 knockdowns. The way to close it is to make the first round a wrestling round.
2
Use the fence, not the clean double
Her takedown accuracy is 16%; her control time is 95 seconds. Those two numbers together say the cage does the work, and this is the smallest cage there is.
3
Attack the neck in the scramble
0.82 submission attempts per fifteen against a woman who has been submitted twice in Round 1. It costs nothing to look.
4
Keep the jab going upstairs
77-79% of her landed strikes go to the head, and her output rises every round. Even in a standing exchange she can bank frames on volume.
5
Make the third round hers
27.0 landed in an average third against Souza's 24.7 on three rounds of sample and a 9:29 average fight time. Late is where the schedule gap shows.
6
Contingency — if Plan A fails
If the takedowns are stuffed twice early, she must not keep shooting from range into a counter-puncher. Clinch work and volume are the fallback, not a third failed entry.

Path to Victory

Ketlen Souza

Keep it standing for fifteen minutes. She is the more accurate striker, she has nine knockouts, and Godinez has finished one opponent by strike in her career.

Why they win

Eight points of striking accuracy

57% to 49%, and 62.4% in an average opening round — the sharpest single figure in the fight, attached to her only knockdown average.

Nine knockouts to one

53% of her wins are by strike, including a 94-second finish of Ariane Carnelossi in June. Godinez has stopped exactly one opponent by strike in her career.

Two inches of reach and an inch of height

In a bout with identical leg reach and identical age, it is the only physical edge available and it belongs to her.

The better recent form

Two straight wins including a first-round knockout, against a Godinez sample of 2-3 with a submission loss in April.

Committed body work

25.6%, 26.7% and 31.1% of her landed strikes go to the body across three rounds. Against a wrestler who has to close distance repeatedly, that is the right target.

Godinez's 16% takedown accuracy

The entries are frequent but they are not clean. Every stuffed attempt is a scoring opportunity and thirty seconds of Godinez's tank.

The gameplan

1
Sprawl and circle off the fence
Her 54% takedown defence is the number that loses this fight. In a 25-foot cage the answer is not to out-wrestle Godinez but to never have her back to it.
2
Counter the entry
Godinez shoots at 16% accuracy and lands 47-53%. Every telegraphed level change is the exact moment Souza's 62.4% first-round accuracy gets paid.
3
Go to the body
31.1% of her third-round offence already lands there. A wrestler who has to close distance forty times in fifteen minutes is the ideal body-shot target.
4
Win the first round outright
It is her most accurate and most dangerous frame, and it is Godinez's second-highest control round. If it goes to the mat early, the whole fight follows.
5
Do not scramble — stand up
Two career submission losses, both in Round 1, against 0.82 attempts per fifteen. Getting back to the feet is worth more than winning the position.
6
Contingency — if Plan A fails
If she is taken down in both of the first two rounds, the decision is gone and the only path is a finish. Her nine knockouts and Godinez's willingness to be hit make that a real, if narrow, door.

Danger Zone

How Lupita Godinez loses

She shoots into a counter — Souza's accuracy peaks at 62.4% in the first round with a 0.20 knockdown average — and gets stopped by the only real puncher she has faced in two years.
The takedowns come at 16% accuracy, none of them land, and she loses a decision on Souza's cleaner striking without ever changing the floor of the fight.
She comes back from a submission loss to Tatiana Suarez still carrying it, and fights tentatively against someone she should be pressuring.

Danger Zone

How Ketlen Souza loses

She spends fifteen minutes on her back or on the fence, loses 30-27, and never gets to use the eight-point accuracy edge she owns.
The scramble goes badly — she has been submitted twice, both in Round 1 — against 0.82 submission attempts per fifteen minutes.
The 25-foot cage removes her exit routes and the counter-boxing game becomes a clinch game she has no wrestling for.

2.99 against 54%

One Number Decides It

Lupita Godinez attempts 2.99 takedowns per fifteen minutes — more than 50% above the strawweight baseline — and Ketlen Souza defends 54% of them, ten points below it. Souza attempts 0.45 of her own. There is no version of this fight in which that collision does not happen, and no version in which Souza gets to choose whether it does.

2.99 v 54%

takedowns per 15 vs takedown defence

The control-time gap

A Third of Every Round

Godinez averages 95 seconds of control in a first round and 94 in a second — roughly a third of each — against Souza's 15 and 61. Over three rounds that is more than four minutes of a fifteen-minute fight spent in a position Souza has no answer for and no history of experiencing. Control time is the least glamorous statistic in MMA and the most reliable predictor of a decision.

95s v 15s

average Round-1 control time

Why 2-3 beats 2-0 here

The Form Reading Is Backwards

Godinez is 2-3 in her last five and Souza is on a two-fight win streak, which reads badly for the favourite until you check the names. Godinez's three losses are to Tatiana Suarez, Mackenzie Dern and Virna Jandiroba — arguably the three best grapplers in the division's history — and her two wins include former champion Jessica Andrade. Souza's two losses are split decisions. Nobody at 115 pounds has had a harder five fights.

2-3

Godinez's last five — all losses to elite grapplers

Where the 40% lives

Souza's Five Best Minutes

Ketlen Souza's opening round is the sharpest five minutes either woman produces: 62.4% accuracy, a 0.20 knockdown average, and nine career knockouts behind it. It is also the round in which Godinez's control time peaks at 95 seconds. Both women's best work happens simultaneously in the first five minutes, and whoever imposes it first probably wins the fight.

62.4%

Souza's Round-1 striking accuracy

The venue variable

The Small Cage

The UFC Apex uses a 25-foot cage rather than the 30-foot event Octagon. Godinez's takedown accuracy is only 16% — she does not land clean doubles, she walks people down and works against the fence. Removing five feet of retreat in every direction is a direct, measurable upgrade to exactly the mechanism this fight turns on, and it appears in neither woman's rate line.

The Five-Round Clock

Lupita Godinez danger windowKetlen Souza danger windowNeutral / contested

R1 · 0:00–5:00Both women's best round, at once

Godinez's control time peaks at 95 seconds; Souza's accuracy peaks at 62.4% with her only knockdown average of 0.20. This is the most consequential five minutes of the fight — the winner of the opening exchange usually gets to dictate the other ten.

Critical Insight
This fight has an unusually front-loaded decision point. Both women's sharpest round is the first — Godinez's control peaks at 95 seconds, Souza's accuracy at 62.4% with her only real knockdown threat — and whichever pattern establishes itself in those five minutes tends to hold. After that the curves separate: Godinez's output rises to 27.0 by the third while her control stays high, and Souza's control collapses back to 17 seconds against a schedule and a fight-time average she cannot match. Roughly two-thirds of Souza's win equity resolves in the first ten minutes.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things

One mechanism decides it: Lupita Godinez attempts 2.99 takedowns per fifteen minutes against a 54% takedown defence, and controls 95 seconds of an average opening round against Ketlen Souza's 15.

Souza's case is the first five minutes — 62.4% accuracy, a 0.20 knockdown average and nine career knockouts against a woman who has stopped one opponent by strike in her career.

Model: Godinez 60% / Souza 40%, conviction 5/10 — and 48 of 100 simulations end with Godinez winning a decision.

100 Simulated Fights

Godinez Decision — 48%Souza Decision — 22%Souza KO/TKO — 15%Godinez Submission — 9%Godinez KO/TKO — 3%Souza Submission — 3%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. Lupita Godinez gold · Ketlen Souza orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

The takedown collision

2.99 attempts per fifteen minutes against 54% takedown defence, with Souza attempting 0.45 of her own. The most lopsided single matchup number on this card.

Control time

95 and 94 seconds in the first two rounds against 15 and 61 — more than four minutes of a fifteen-minute fight spent in a position Souza has never had to solve.

The 25-foot Apex cage

Godinez converts only 16% of her takedown attempts; her game is fence work, not clean doubles. Five fewer feet of retreat is a direct upgrade to her one mechanism.

Souza's opening-round sharpness

62.4% accuracy and a 0.20 knockdown average with nine career knockouts behind them, against a fighter who has to close distance repeatedly. This is the entire case for the underdog.

Opposition quality

Godinez is 2-3 in her last five against Suarez, Dern, Jandiroba and a former champion; Souza's two defeats in the same span are split decisions. The raw form line is misleading.

Sample asymmetry

Godinez has 39 scored UFC rounds and 13:21 of average fight time; Souza has 11 rounds and 9:29. Souza's late-round figures rest on three rounds each.

Fight Scripts

of simulations

The Grind

Godinez closes early in a 25-foot cage, puts Souza on the fence, and takes a third of each of the first two rounds in control while landing 18 to 27 a round upstairs. A 30-27 or 29-28 that looks routine and is decided in the opening ninety seconds.

Scripted outcomes for Lupita Godinez vs Ketlen Souza — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Lupita Godinez win probability

48%

KO/TKODECSUB

One career knockout in fourteen wins and a knockdown average of 0.07. Deliberately near-zero — she wins rounds by touching faces and holding people down, not by hurting them.
Nearly half of all outcomes, and correctly so. Eleven of fourteen career wins are decisions, she controls 95 seconds of an average opening round, and her output rises every round against a 54% takedown defence.
Two career submissions and 0.82 attempts per fifteen minutes, aimed at a fighter who has been submitted twice — both times in the opening round. Small, but the most under-priced outcome on the page.

Ketlen Souza win probability

15%

22%

KO/TKODECSUB

Nine career knockouts, a 62.4% opening-round accuracy, and a 0.20 first-round knockdown average against a fighter who must repeatedly close distance. Front-loaded into the first ten minutes, where all her evidence lives.
The path requires the 54% takedown defence to hold for fifteen minutes against 2.99 attempts per fifteen. Live, but it asks the weakest number on her sheet to carry the whole fight.
Two career submissions and 0.23 attempts per fifteen minutes. A scramble accident rather than a plan — she has no offensive wrestling to create the position.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round

Lupita

30-27 Godinez

Control time in all three rounds and a rising output curve

The most likely card, and the shape of nine of her eleven decision wins

29-28 Godinez

Souza takes the first on accuracy; the wrestling takes the last two

Common in the branch where the opening counter lands but does not finish

29-28 Souza

The takedowns are stuffed and the accuracy gap decides it

Her realistic decision path — it requires the 54% sprawl to hold

Moneyline

Lupita Godinez

Not posted

Ketlen Souza

Not posted

No book has published a line for this bout at the time of writing. Converting our own probabilities gives fair prices of Lupita Godinez -150 from 60% and Ketlen Souza +150 from 40% — model outputs, not quotes. Live prices appear in the hero above once a market opens.

Props: model vs market

Prop	Odds	Implied %	Model %	Fair	Edge	Verdict

Best Value
Godinez by decision at 48% is the structural read and the single largest bucket on the page — eleven of her fourteen career wins came that way and the mechanism against a 54% takedown defence is as clean as this card offers. The genuine flier is Godinez by submission at 9%: Souza has been tapped twice, both in the opening round, and Godinez attempts 0.82 per fifteen minutes off her takedowns. On the other side, Souza inside the distance at 18% is the correct dog ticket if the market makes Godinez a heavy favourite.

Conviction

5/10

A clean structural lean on a single mechanism, held to five out of ten by a real puncher and a real form argument. Godinez attempts 2.99 takedowns per fifteen minutes against a 54% takedown defence and controls roughly a third of each of the first two rounds; Souza has no offensive wrestling to answer with and has been submitted twice. Against that: Souza is the more accurate striker by eight points, has nine career knockouts to Godinez's one, is two inches longer, and is the one arriving on a two-fight win streak with a 94-second finish. The fight is decided in the first five minutes, and both women's best work happens there. Lean: Lupita Godinez.

What backs the lean

2.99 takedowns per fifteen minutes against a 54% takedown defence — ten points under the divisional baseline.
95 and 94 seconds of control in the first two rounds, against Souza's 15 and 61.
The 25-foot Apex cage, which upgrades a fence-based wrestling game with only 16% takedown accuracy.
Fourteen Octagon appearances to seven, and 13:21 of average fight time to 9:29.
A schedule that reads Suarez, Dern, Jandiroba, Andrade and Hill — her 2-3 form line is misleading.
Souza has been submitted twice, both in Round 1, against 0.82 submission attempts per fifteen.

What limits it

Eight points of striking accuracy — 57% to 49% — and 62.4% in an average opening round.
Nine career knockouts to one, including a 94-second finish in June 2026.
Two inches of reach and an inch of height, the only physical edges on an otherwise flat sheet.
Godinez converts only 16% of her takedown attempts; the entries are frequent, not clean.
Souza is on a two-fight win streak; Godinez is coming off a submission loss to Tatiana Suarez.
The most committed body attack in the bout — 31.1% of her third-round offence — against a wrestler who must close distance repeatedly.

Final Assessment

In roughly sixty of one hundred simulations, Lupita Godinez wins, and in forty-eight of those she wins on the scorecards. The mechanism is the least ambiguous thing on this card: she attempts 2.99 takedowns per fifteen minutes into a 54% takedown defence, controls 95 seconds of an average opening round against Souza's 15, and does it in a 25-foot cage that removes five feet of retreat in every direction. Her output rises every round — 18.1, 22.4, 27.0 — and eleven of her fourteen career wins ended exactly this way.

In the other forty, Ketlen Souza never has to wrestle. She circles off the fence, counters the level change with the sharpest striking numbers in the fight — 62.4% accuracy in an average first round, a 0.20 knockdown average, nine career knockouts — and either takes a clear decision on accuracy and body work (22%) or ends it early against a woman who has to keep walking into her (15%). Almost all of that equity is spent in the opening ten minutes.

The form lines point one way and the matchup points the other, hard. Souza is 2-0 in her last two with a 94-second knockout; Godinez is 2-3 against Tatiana Suarez, Mackenzie Dern, Virna Jandiroba and a former champion. What settles it is that one of these women has a documented answer to the other's best weapon and the other does not. On October 10 at the Apex — Godinez 60% / Souza 40%, conviction 5/10, decided in the first five minutes.

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