Lupita Godinez vs Ketlen Souza – UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan Fight Analytics & Prediction

MAIN CARD · WOMEN'S STRAWWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan

Lupita Godinez

14W6L

Wrestling Boxer

Ketlen Souza

17W6L

Accurate Striker

Godinez's wrestling must interrupt Souza's combinations

Women's StrawweightMeta APEXOctober 10, 202625ft Octagon (Meta APEX)

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Godinez wins when her hands are only the setup: combinations that bring Souza's guard up, entries chained along the fence and strikes from top instead of a pause after the takedown. That formula beat former champion Jéssica Andrade on the cards. Souza's route is posture, separation and a clean counter each time Godinez resets to range, and predictable shots are what turn this into her fight.

Paths that change the fight

Lupita GodinezUse combinations to draw the guard up, chain entries at the fence and strike from top position rather than pause after the takedown.
Ketlen SouzaMaintain posture while defending grips, separate before consecutive attempts develop and counter Godinez's return to range.

What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 4/10

57% StrAcc and 0.45 KD/15 for Souza.
Suarez showed elite grappling can finish Godinez.

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Lupita Godinez

Freshness unverified

Model win probability: 56%
Fair odds: -127

Reference quote: -225 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 1.79

Ketlen Souza

Freshness unverified

Model win probability: 44%
Fair odds: +127

Reference quote: +189 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 2.27

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Sources and data limitations

Career statistics and fight results through September 2026. Composite scores (Godinez 50/51; Souza 49/35), probabilities and fair prices are MMA Analytics model outputs.

Model methodology

Read the evidence Inspect prices and assumptions

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Lupita Godinez comes off the only stoppage loss of her career, a Tatiana Suarez choke, but her work against the division's elite still makes her the more proven fighter. Ketlen Souza has won two straight, the latest a quick knockout of Ariane Carnelossi. The fight asks whether Godinez's wrestling can reach Souza without walking into her counters, and Souza's danger is concentrated almost entirely in the opening round. Godinez tends to build as fights go on, so the swing is whether she gets through Souza's early accuracy with her game plan intact.

Lupita Godinez

Attribute

Ketlen Souza

Age

+1 year Godinez32

5' 2"

Height

+1" Souza5' 3"

61"

Reach

+2" Souza63"

35"

Leg Reach

35"

14-6-0

Pro Record

17-6-0

9-6 (15 bouts)

UFC Record

4-3 (7 bouts)

Boxing into wrestling

Fighting Style

Combination striker

Souza is slightly taller with a two-inch reach edge at 115 — useful counter space against Godinez's entries.

Venue Factor
The 25-foot APEX cage brings the fence closer, and the fence is where Godinez chains her takedowns; Souza needs clean counters before she runs out of room.

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Lupita Godinez

Pro Record

14-6-0

UFC Record

9-6 — L SUB Suarez (Apr 2026) · W DEC Andrade (Aug 2025)

Streak

One loss — rear-naked choke vs Tatiana Suarez, R2 (2:29)

Finish Rate

3 finishes in 14 wins — 2 submissions, 1 TKO; 11 decisions

Avg Fight Time

13:21

Chin · Durable — 0 knockdowns absorbed in 15 UFC bouts; never stopped by strikesSOS · Top-tier testedWrestling boxer

Godinez beat former champion Jéssica Andrade on the cards in August 2025, then was choked out by Tatiana Suarez in the second round in April — the only stoppage loss of her career. Twelve of her 15 UFC fights went the distance; 2.99 takedowns and 0.82 submission attempts per fifteen remain the statistical case.

Ketlen Souza

Pro Record

17-6-0

UFC Record

4-3 — W KO Carnelossi (Jun 2026) · W DEC Brasil (Feb 2026)

Streak

Two wins — Brasil decision, Carnelossi knockout

Finish Rate

11 finishes in 17 wins — 9 KO/TKO, 2 submissions

Avg Fight Time

9:29

Chin · Solid in the UFC — 0 knockdowns absorbed in 7 bouts; two stoppage losses by strikes before the UFC (2019, 2020)SOS · RisingPower striker

Souza's UFC run: a debut kneebar loss to Karine Silva, wins over Mann and Jauregui, split-decision losses to Hill and Rodriguez, then a Brasil decision and a 94-second knockout of Ariane Carnelossi in June. Both of her UFC knockdowns and both UFC finishes came in the first round; 57% accuracy is the counter threat.

Lupita Godinez

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Knockdown Exchange

Knockdowns dealt vs absorbed.

Ketlen Souza

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Lupita Godinezsignature weapons

ArmbarSilvana Gómez Juárez, R1 (4:14), Oct 2021

×1

Rear-Naked ChokeElise Reed, R2 (3:30), Sep 2023

×1

Punches (TKO)Regional stoppage, R1, May 2019

×1

Ketlen Souzasignature weapons

PunchesRegional TKOs 2016–21, six of them inside two rounds

×7

Rear-Naked ChokeLatest: Yazmin Jauregui (technical), R1 (3:02), Sep 2024

×2

Head Kick & PunchesAriane Carnelossi, R1 (1:34), Jun 2026

×1

Corner RetirementErianny Castaneda, after R2, May 2021

×1

Lupita Godinez

Tatiana Suarez

Submission — Rear-naked choke

Opponent context: elite

R2 (2:29)

UFC 327, Miami — Apr 11, 2026

Jéssica Andrade

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: elite

R3 (5:00)

UFC 319, Chicago — Aug 16, 2025

Julia Polastri

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: prospect

R3 (5:00)

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg, Mexico City — Mar 29, 2025

Mackenzie Dern

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: ranked

R3 (5:00)

UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov, Abu Dhabi — Aug 3, 2024

Virna Jandiroba

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: ranked

R3 (5:00)

UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot, Atlantic City — Mar 30, 2024

Pattern

Godinez has alternated results against the top of the division — decision losses to Jandiroba and Dern, wins over Polastri and Andrade, then the Suarez choke. Twelve of her 15 UFC fights went to the cards.

Ketlen Souza

Ariane Carnelossi

KO — Punches and head kick

Opponent context: veteran

R1 (1:34)

UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim — Jun 6, 2026

Bruna Brasil

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: ufc

R3 (5:00)

UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira — Feb 7, 2026

Piera Rodriguez

Decision — Split

Opponent context: veteran

R3 (5:00)

UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park — Aug 2, 2025

Angela Hill

Decision — Split

Opponent context: veteran

R3 (5:00)

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues — Feb 15, 2025

Yazmin Jauregui

Technical submission — Rear-naked choke

Opponent context: prospect

R1 (3:02)

UFC 306, Las Vegas — Sep 14, 2024

Pattern

Two straight wins after two split-decision losses. Her finishes come early: both UFC stoppages (Jauregui, Carnelossi) happened in the first round.

Lupita Godinez

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Ketlen Souza

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Critical Insight
Godinez's 14 wins are 79% decisions, and her three finishes all came inside two rounds. Souza has finished 11 of 17, ten of them inside two rounds. The model gives Souza 18 knockout points against Godinez's 38-point decision mass.

Common Opponents

Opponent	Lupita	Ketlen
Ariane Carnelossi	W· UD3 (UFC 274, May 2022) — 8 of 8 takedowns, 13:26 of control	L· TKO R3 body kick (2019) · W · KO R1 1:34 (Jun 2026)
Godinez's cleanest wrestling template — eight takedowns without a miss against an opponent Souza needed two fights to solve.
Angela Hill	L· UD3 (Aug 2022) — out-landed Hill 92-85	L· Split decision (Feb 2025) — out-landed 86-70
Both lost to Hill on the cards: Godinez despite winning the strike count, Souza while losing it.

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and UFC experience before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

SLpM 25% · StrAcc 30% · StrDef 30% · SApM 15%

Lupita

Ketlen

Close volume; Souza's accuracy edge (57% vs 49%) against Godinez's defence (62% vs 53%).

Grappling

TD/15 25% · TDAcc 25% · TDDef 30% · Sub/15 20%

Lupita

Ketlen

Godinez 2.99 TD/15 at 43% and 77% TDDef vs Souza 0.45 TD/15 at 13% and 54% TDDef.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

0.0

Lupita

Ketlen

Godinez's aggregate edge comes almost entirely from grappling.

Metric	Lupita	Ketlen
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	2.99	0.45
TD Defence	77%	54%
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	49%	57%
KD/15	0.07	0.45
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	0.82	0.23

Archetype Base Rate

Wrestling Boxer 56%44% Accurate Striker

Model lean · 56/44 model lean — takedown frequency vs Souza's 54% TDDef.

Lupita GodinezKetlen Souza

Women's Strawweight

· 43 fighters

Rank bars use the recorded division cohort. Where a rank is unavailable, the comparison shows the difference from the published division average; the white marker denotes equality. Percentage differences are percentage points (pp). Higher is not always better: fewer strikes absorbed is preferable. Missing benchmarks are not estimated.

Stat	Lupita	Lupita comparison	Div avg	Ketlen comparison	Ketlen
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	4.43	14/43	3.88	21/43	4.11
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	49%	15/43	45.6%	3/43	57%
Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit.	62%	6/43	55.2%	28/43	53%
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	3.94	26/43	3.84	24/43	3.89
KD AvgKD AvgKnockdown Average — knockdowns scored per 15 minutes. The one-shot power indicator.	0.07	19/43	0.12	4/43	0.45
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	2.99	5/43	1.51	34/43	0.45
TD Acc	43% (40 of 94)	Not available	—	Not available	13% (2 of 15)
TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed.	77%	12/43	61.4%	30/43	54%
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	0.82	8/43	0.51	22/43	0.23
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	13:21	Not available	—	Not available	9:29

Statistical Verdict
Godinez owns the grappling inputs — 5th in takedown pace, 8th in submission attempts and 12th in takedown defence of 43 — plus the better striking defence (6th). Souza is the sharper striker: 3rd in accuracy and 4th in knockdown rate. Entries must not be telegraphed.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

Control Time per Round (sec)

Lupita Godinez

Output climbs every round: 18.1 landed in R1, 20.9 in R2, 27.0 in R3.
Control is front-loaded — about 90 seconds in each of R1 and R2, 67 in R3.
78% of her strikes go to the head; only 6% land on the ground.

Ketlen Souza

R1 is her danger round: both UFC knockdowns (0.29 per R1) and both UFC finishes.
Three of her seven UFC bouts ended in the first round.
Body work rises as fights go on — 22% of her strikes in R1, 32% in R3.

Critical Insight
Godinez builds: her R3 output is half again her R1. Souza is most dangerous early and then settles around 22 per round. The first five minutes are Souza's best window; the last five are Godinez's.

Strike targeting

Lupita

78%

16%

Head

78%

Body

16%

Legs

Ketlen

54%

28%

18%

Head

54%

Body

28%

Legs

18%

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

LupitaKetlen

84%Distance85%

10%Clinch14%

6%Ground1%

Share of significant strikes landed at distance, in the clinch and on the ground across each fighter's UFC rounds, weighted by strike volume.

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much

Open SpaceKetlen owns it

57% accuracy (3rd of 43) and 0.45 KD/15; 85% of her strikes land at distance

Pocket / ExchangesEven

4.43 vs 4.11 SLpM — close striking volume

Clinch / FenceLupita owns it

2.99 TD/15 at 43%; Souza has conceded 13 of 28 attempts

GroundLupita owns it

0.82 Sub/15 and 3:45 of control per UFC fight

Path to Victory

Lupita Godinez

Use combinations to draw the guard up, chain entries at the fence and strike from top position rather than pause after the takedown.

Why they win

Takedown frequency

2.99 TD/15 vs 0.45 — 5th in the division pool and the clearest grappling edge.

Takedown defence

77% vs 54% — Souza must win standing first.

Striking defence

62% StrDef, 6th of 43 — can exit exchanges.

Andrade proof

Beat a former champion on the cards — the template for the 38-point decision bucket.

Submission attempts

0.82 Sub/15 — threatens after control.

The gameplan

1
Primary route
Combinations into fence takedowns with top strikes.
2
Disguise entries
Avoid predictable level changes into Souza's first-round counters.
3
Control damage
Control must produce effective offence, not fence stalling.

Path to Victory

Ketlen Souza

Maintain posture while defending grips, separate before consecutive attempts develop and counter Godinez's return to range.

Why they win

Accuracy

57% vs 49% — 3rd in the division pool; punishes telegraphed shots.

Knockdowns

0.45 KD/15 (4th of 43) — the 18-point model KO path.

Reach

+2 inches — counter space.

Momentum

Two straight wins, capped by a 94-second knockout of Carnelossi.

Early danger

Both UFC finishes and both knockdowns came in the first round.

The gameplan

1
Primary route
Posture and separation before chains develop.
2
Counter shots
57% accuracy on reactive strikes, especially in R1.
3
Stay off fence
Reset to the centre when pressed — the APEX cage gives her less room.

Danger Zone

How Lupita Godinez loses

Souza tags an entry early — her two UFC knockdowns and two finishes all came in R1.
Fence stalls without damage — judges favour Souza's cleaner strikes.
A grappling exchange turns on her — Suarez choked her out in the second round in April.

Danger Zone

How Ketlen Souza loses

Godinez chains takedowns — the 38-point decision mass.
54% TDDef fails — Rodriguez landed 7 of 10 takedowns on her in their split decision.
The fight reaches R3, where Godinez averages 27 landed per round.

Matchup interpretation

The phase that changes the comparison

Godinez's takedown rate is substantially higher, making her entries a plausible way to disrupt Souza's striking rhythm. Souza's accuracy and knockout history make those approaches costly if they are predictable.

Counterargument

What would change the selection

Souza's accuracy and knockdown history make unprotected entries costly. Control must produce effective offence, not simply time against the fence.

model win % for Godinez

3 rounds

Distance and repeatability

Godinez has a clearer route to repeated wrestling exchanges; Souza can alter it by making the setup expensive.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things

Lupita Godinez's 2.99 TD/15 and 77% TDDef versus Ketlen Souza's 57% StrAcc and 0.45 KD/15 — wrestling entries vs counter power.

Model: Godinez 56% / Souza 44%, conviction 4/10. Fair −127 / +127.

Primary reversal: Souza tags clean counters off predictable shots and keeps the fight standing.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Godinez Decision — 38%Godinez KO/TKO — 4%Godinez Submission — 14%Souza KO/TKO — 18%Souza Decision — 18%Souza Submission — 8%

Each square = 1 model percentage point. Lupita Godinez gold · Ketlen Souza orange · color opacity: 100% = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

TD/15 gap

2.99 vs 0.45 — the core lean driver.

Souza counters

57% StrAcc and 0.45 KD/15 — the reversal path, strongest in R1.

TDDef

Souza's 54% must improve against chained entries.

Suarez lesson

Elite grappling can undo Godinez — Souza is not Suarez, but counters matter.

Effective top offence

Control without damage helps Souza's optics.

Fight Scripts

of simulations

The Andrade Template

Godinez chains takedowns, scores from top and wins the decision.

Scripted outcomes for Lupita Godinez vs Ketlen Souza — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Lupita Godinez win probability

38%

14%

KO/TKODECSUB

Four points — one knockdown in 15 UFC bouts (0.07 KD/15).
Thirty-eight points — largest bucket; Andrade proof.
Fourteen points — 0.82 Sub/15; armbar and rear-naked choke finishes in the UFC.

Ketlen Souza win probability

18%

KO/TKODECSUB

Eighteen points — Carnelossi knockout and 0.45 KD/15.
Eighteen points — Brasil and Mann decisions; Hill and Rodriguez were split losses.
Eight points — Jauregui rear-naked choke template.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round

Ketlen

Lupita

29-28 Godinez

Souza takes R1; Godinez's control and output take R2–R3

Modal inside the 38% decision path

30-27 Godinez

Takedowns in all three rounds

Live if the first entry lands clean

29-28 Souza

Counter damage in R1 plus a stuffed-takedown round

Inside the 18% decision share

Model and price

Lupita Godinez

Freshness unverified

Model win probability: 56%
Fair odds: -127

Reference quote: -225 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 1.79

Estimated EV: -19.1%
Edge vs no-vig market: -10.7 pp

Ketlen Souza

Freshness unverified

Model win probability: 44%
Fair odds: +127

Reference quote: +189 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 2.27

Estimated EV: +27.2%
Edge vs no-vig market: +10.7 pp

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Lupita Godinez

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 1.79 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Ketlen Souza

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 2.28 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Analyst price notes

Written against the prices of October 5.

Souza at plus money aligns with 44% and an 18-point KO tail. BetOnline +189 is longer than the model's +127, so the underdog is the value side. Godinez −225 is shorter than the −150 line that already exceeds the lean.

Conviction

4/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Lean Godinez on 2.99 TD/15, 77% TDDef, and 0.82 Sub/15 vs Souza's 54% TDDef — capped because counters and 0.45 KD/15 keep standing paths live. Lean: Lupita Godinez.

What backs the lean

2.99 TD/15 vs 0.45.
77% TDDef.
Andrade decision proof.
38-point decision bucket.

What limits it

57% StrAcc and 0.45 KD/15 for Souza.
Suarez showed elite grappling can finish Godinez.
Telegraphed entries are costly.
Souza on a two-fight streak.

Final Assessment

Lupita Godinez vs Ketlen Souza is a women's strawweight main-card wrestler-vs-striker pairing. Godinez lands 4.43 significant strikes per minute with 2.99 takedowns and 0.82 submission attempts per fifteen; Souza lands 4.11 at 57% accuracy with 0.45 knockdowns and 0.45 takedowns per fifteen.

The model leans Godinez 56% to Souza 44% with conviction 4/10. Method shares: Godinez 4 KO / 38 decision / 14 submission; Souza 18 KO / 18 decision / 8 submission. Fair moneyline Godinez −127 and Souza +127.

Lean Godinez if takedowns become scoring sequences; respect Souza's first-round counters and knockdown equity at plus money. The smaller APEX cage helps Godinez find the fence, but control must still produce effective offence — not fence time alone.

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