Ernesta Kareckaite vs Melissa Gatto: analysis & prediction

PRELIMS · WOMEN'S FLYWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan
Ernesta Kareckaite — Women's Flyweight fighter

Ernesta Kareckaite

“Heavy-Handed”
6W2L1D
Volume Striker
VS
Melissa Gatto — Women's Flyweight fighter

Melissa Gatto

9W3L2D
Grappler

Kareckaite's volume against Gatto's grappling

Women's FlyweightMeta APEX, Las Vegas, NevadaOctober 10, 202625ft Octagon (Meta APEX)

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Kareckaite throws in bunches from the longer frame, but she gets hit nearly as often as she lands, so her fight is score and exit before Gatto can tie up. Gatto should strike only to arrive, chaining the second shot when the first is stuffed. Kareckaite is hard to take down, so everything hinges on whether Gatto's clinch holds long enough to turn contact into control.

Paths that change the fight

  • Ernesta KareckaiteKeep it standing and busy. She out-landed Caliari 95–67 while stopping 11 of 14 takedowns — repeat that, and let her third-round output decide the cards.
  • Melissa GattoGet it down in Rounds 1 and 2 and hold the position — control beat Kareckaite on her UFC debut — or land the body shots that finished Eubanks and Vidal.
What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 2/10
  • Kareckaite's UFC rates come from three fights and 45 minutes.
  • Gatto has fought four times since 2022 and was out 22 months before April.

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Ernesta Kareckaite

Freshness unverified
Model win probability
50%
Fair odds
+100
Reference quote
-107 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds
2.00

Melissa Gatto

Freshness unverified
Model win probability
50%
Fair odds
+100
Reference quote
-125 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds
2.00
Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Sources and data limitations

Career statistics and fight results through September 2026. Composite scores, probabilities and fair prices are MMA Analytics model outputs.

Model methodology
Read the evidenceInspect prices and assumptions
01

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Kareckaite fights at a pace few women's flyweights match, gets busier every round and is very hard to take down — but she gets hit almost as often as she lands. Gatto is the cleaner striker and the finisher, with four first-round submissions on her record, yet she converts few of her takedown attempts. Both have lost to Dione Barbosa, and both lost on control. Model lean: 50/50, conviction 2/10.

Ernesta Kareckaite
Attribute
Melissa Gatto
282 years younger: Kareckaite
Age
30
5' 9"+4" Kareckaite
Height
5' 5"
71"+2" Kareckaite
Reach
69"
40"+2" Kareckaite
Leg Reach
38"
6-2-1
Pro Record
9-3-2
1-2 (3 bouts)
UFC Record
3-3 (6 bouts)
2 of 6 wins
Finishes
7 of 9 wins
Volume striker
Fighting Style
Grappler / body puncher

Kareckaite has the bigger frame: four inches taller, with two inches more reach and two more of leg reach. Gatto has fought as high as bantamweight as recently as 2024, but at 5'5" she will be looking up at Kareckaite all night.

Venue Factor
The 25-foot APEX Octagon favours the grappler: less room for Kareckaite to circle and throw from range — 87% of her UFC strikes land at distance — and a shorter trip to the fence for Gatto's entries. Both have won in this building: Gatto's stoppages of Sijara Eubanks and Tamires Vidal came at the APEX, and so did Kareckaite's split-decision win over Nicolle Caliari.
02

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Ernesta Kareckaite

Ernesta Kareckaite

Pro Record
6-2-1
UFC Record
1-2 — L Barbosa, W Caliari (split), L Tarin; plus a Contender Series win
Streak
Lost her last — unanimous decision to Regina Tarin (Feb 28, 2026)
Finish Rate
33% (2 of 6 wins) — 2 KO/TKO, 0 submissions
Avg Fight Time
15:00 (3 UFC bouts, all decisions)
Chin · Durable — 0 knockdowns absorbed; never finished in nine pro fightsSOS · UFC regularsVolume striker

Kareckaite earned her contract on the 2023 Contender Series with a split decision over Carli Judice and has fought three fifteen-minute UFC fights since. She out-landed Dione Barbosa 53–39 on debut and still lost a unanimous decision to Barbosa's 3:51 of control and a submission attempt. She beat Nicolle Caliari on a split decision, out-landing her 95–67 and stopping 11 of 14 takedown attempts. Then she lost a unanimous decision to Regina Tarin in a slugfest in which Tarin landed 114 to her 105. Across 45 UFC minutes she lands 5.62 significant strikes per minute, well above the division's 4.86, and absorbs 4.89, at 40% accuracy and 54% defence. Her output rises every round, from 21.7 landed in first rounds to 35.3 in thirds. Both of her knockouts came in the first round in 2019, and all four of her decision wins were split decisions.

Melissa Gatto roars in celebration inside the Octagon after a win

Melissa Gatto

Pro Record
9-3-2
UFC Record
3-3 — six UFC bouts since August 2021
Streak
Lost her last — majority decision to Dione Barbosa (Apr 4, 2026), her first fight in 22 months
Finish Rate
78% (7 of 9 wins) — 3 KO/TKO, 4 submissions
Avg Fight Time
12:44 (6 UFC bouts)
Chin · Never finished — 0 UFC knockdowns absorbed; all three losses on the cardsSOS · UFC regularsGrappler

Gatto came to the UFC unbeaten at 6-0-2 with four first-round submissions — two armbars, a rear-naked choke and a kimura — and has gone 3-3 since. Every UFC win was a stoppage: Victoria Leonardo on a doctor stoppage after Round 2, then Sijara Eubanks and Tamires Vidal early in Round 3, both finished with strikes to the body. Every UFC loss was a decision — unanimous to Tracy Cortez, split to Ariane Lipski after out-landing her 85–66, and majority to Dione Barbosa in April, in her first fight in 22 months, with Barbosa docked a point. She lands 3.47 significant strikes per minute at 50% accuracy and absorbs only 2.67, and she averages 1.77 takedowns per 15 minutes — but she lands only 9 of 33 attempts and has conceded 7 of 17. She has never been finished in 14 pro fights.

Ernesta Kareckaite
0 dealt · 0 absorbed
Knockdown Exchange
Knockdowns dealt vs absorbed.
Melissa Gatto
0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Ernesta Kareckaitesignature weapons

Punches (KO/TKO)Both in Round 1 of her first two pro fights (2019)
×2

Melissa Gattosignature weapons

ArmbarKethylen Rothenburg R1 1:36 and Joice de Andrade R1 2:34 (2018)
×2
Strikes to the body (KO/TKO)Eubanks R3 0:45 (body kick and punches, 2021); Vidal R3 0:37 (punch to the body, 2024)
×2
Rear-naked chokeRafaela Thomazini, R1 1:09 (2017)
×1
KimuraKarol Rosa, R1 4:19 (2018)
×1
Doctor stoppageVictoria Leonardo, end of R2 (UFC 265, 2021)
×1

Ernesta Kareckaite

L
Regina Tarin
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: ufc

R3 (5:00)
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh, Mexico City — Feb 28, 2026
W
Nicolle Caliari
Decision — Split

Opponent context: ufc

R3 (5:00)
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2, Las Vegas — Jan 11, 2025
L
Dione Barbosa
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: ufc

R3 (5:00)
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg, Rio de Janeiro — May 4, 2024 (UFC debut)
W
Carli Judice
Decision — Split

Opponent context: ufc adjacent

R3 (5:00)
Dana White's Contender Series — Sep 26, 2023 (earned UFC contract)
W
Laetitia Blot
Decision — Split
R3 (5:00)
Hexagone MMA 6 — Jan 22, 2023
Pattern

Every UFC fight has gone the distance and every one was close. She out-landed Barbosa and Caliari and was out-landed by Tarin; the fight she lost despite winning the strike count, against Barbosa, was decided by control. All four of her decision wins, including Caliari and the Contender Series win, were split decisions.

Melissa Gatto

L
Dione Barbosa
Decision — Majority (Barbosa deducted a point in R2)

Opponent context: ufc

R3 (5:00)
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan, Las Vegas — Apr 4, 2026
W
Tamires Vidal
KO/TKO — Punch to the body

Opponent context: ufc

R3 (0:37)
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy, Las Vegas — May 18, 2024 (bantamweight)
L
Ariane Lipski
Decision — Split

Opponent context: veteran

R3 (5:00)
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov, Las Vegas — Jul 1, 2023
L
Tracy Cortez
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: veteran

R3 (5:00)
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje, Phoenix — May 7, 2022
W
Sijara Eubanks
KO/TKO — Body kick and punches

Opponent context: veteran

R3 (0:45)
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus, Las Vegas — Dec 18, 2021
Pattern

Three wins and three losses in the UFC, split cleanly by method: every win a stoppage, every loss a decision. Two of the three losses were split or majority decisions, and she out-landed Lipski 85–66 and Barbosa 33–30. She has fought only four times since the start of 2022.

Ernesta Kareckaite

Win Methods
Wins by Round

Melissa Gatto

Win Methods
Wins by Round
Critical Insight
Kareckaite's two knockouts came in the first round of her first two pro fights in 2019; she has gone the distance in all seven fights since. Gatto finishes in two ways — submissions early (all four in Round 1) and body-shot stoppages late (Eubanks and Vidal early in Round 3). Neither woman has ever been finished.

Common Opponents

OpponentErnestaMelissa
Dione BarbosaL· Decision — Unanimous (May 2024)L· Decision — Majority (Apr 2026)
Both lost to Barbosa on control, not on the strike count. Kareckaite out-landed her 53–39 but gave up 3:51 of control and a submission attempt. Gatto out-landed her 33–30 and matched her 3–3 on takedowns but gave up 6:06 of control to 4:48 — and Barbosa won a majority decision despite being docked a point for an illegal kick.
03

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and UFC experience before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

SLpM 25% · StrAcc 30% · StrDef 30% · SApM 15%

0
Ernestafew UFC fights
0
Melissa

Kareckaite's volume (5.62 to 3.47 landed per minute) against Gatto's cleaner line — 50% accuracy to 40%, and 2.67 absorbed per minute to 4.89.

Grappling

TD/15 25% · TDAcc 25% · TDDef 30% · Sub/15 20%

0
Ernestafew UFC fights
0
Melissa

Gatto's 1.77 takedowns and 0.39 submission attempts per 15 against Kareckaite's 79% takedown defence. Gatto lands 27% of her shots.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

0.0
Ernestafew UFC fights
0
Melissa

Level — the striking and grappling edges cancel out.

MetricErnestaMelissa
Landed / min5.62few UFC fights3.47
Absorbed / min4.89few UFC fights2.67
TD/150.671.77
TDs conceded6 of 287 of 17
Reach71"69"

Archetype Base Rate

Volume Striker 50%50% Grappler

MMA Analytics model — this matchup · A true 50/50: Kareckaite's output, size and takedown defence against Gatto's efficiency, takedowns and submission record.

Ernesta KareckaiteMelissa Gatto

Women's Flyweight

· 23 fighters

Rank bars use the recorded division cohort. Where a rank is unavailable, the comparison shows the difference from the published division average; the white marker denotes equality. Percentage differences are percentage points (pp). Higher is not always better: fewer strikes absorbed is preferable. Missing benchmarks are not estimated.

StatErnestaErnesta comparisonDiv avgMelissa comparisonMelissa
SLpM5.62
+0.76 vs avgfew UFC fights
4.86
-1.39 vs avg
3.47
Str Acc40%
-5.70 pp vs avgfew UFC fights
45.7%
+4.30 pp vs avg
50%
Str Def54%
-2.50 pp vs avgfew UFC fights
56.5%
-2.50 pp vs avg
54%
SApM4.89
+0.75 vs avgfew UFC fights
4.14
-1.47 vs avg
2.67
KD/150.00
-0.37 vs avg
0.37
-0.17 vs avg
0.20
TD/150.67
-0.77 vs avgfew UFC fights
1.44
+0.33 vs avg
1.77
TD Acc67% (2 of 3)
Not availablefew UFC fights
—
Not available
27% (9 of 33)
TD Def79% (6 conceded of 28)
Not availablefew UFC fights
—
Not available
59% (7 conceded of 17)
Sub/150.00
-0.42 vs avg
0.42
-0.03 vs avg
0.39
Avg Fight Time15:00
Not available
—
Not available
12:44
Statistical Verdict
Kareckaite lands and absorbs more than the average women's flyweight — 5.62 landed and 4.89 absorbed per minute against division averages of 4.86 and 4.14 — while Gatto is below average on both, the lower-risk profile. Gatto takes opponents down a little more often than the division (1.77 to 1.44 per 15) but converts poorly, and Kareckaite's 79% takedown defence is the strongest number either woman has.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

Control Time per Round (sec)

Ernesta Kareckaite

  • Her output climbs every round — 21.7 landed in first rounds, 27.3 in seconds, 35.3 in thirds — while her accuracy holds around 40%.
  • First rounds are where she gets controlled: opponents average 92 seconds of first-round control, and half of the 6 takedowns she has conceded came in Round 1.
  • Her rounds are busy in both directions — 23.0, 21.0 and 29.3 absorbed per round — and Tarin landed 46 on her in the third.

Melissa Gatto

  • Round 2 is her biggest round — 23.3 landed at 54.7% and nearly two minutes of control — though 57 of those strikes came in a single round against Leonardo.
  • Her wrestling happens early: all 9 of her UFC takedowns landed in Rounds 1 and 2.
  • Round 3 is where she has finished UFC opponents — Eubanks at 0:45 and Vidal at 0:37 — which is also why its averages are low: two of her five third rounds lasted under a minute.
Critical Insight
The rounds run in opposite directions. Kareckaite is busiest late (35.3 landed in third rounds) and most often controlled early; Gatto does all of her wrestling in the first ten minutes and has finished opponents early in Round 3. Gatto needs to bank Rounds 1 and 2 before Kareckaite's output peaks.

Strike targeting

Ernesta

Head
77%
Body
18%
Legs
5%

Melissa

Head
54%
Body
29%
Legs
17%

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

ErnestaMelissa
87%Distance85%
10%Clinch10%
3%Ground5%

Share of significant strikes landed at distance, in the clinch and on the ground across each fighter's UFC rounds, weighted by strike volume.

04

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much
Open SpaceErnesta owns it

5.62 landed per minute against 3.47; 87% of Kareckaite's output lands at distance

Pocket / ExchangesMelissa owns it

Gatto's 50% accuracy and 2.67 absorbed per minute against 40% and 4.89; her body shots finished Eubanks and Vidal

ClinchErnesta owns it

Kareckaite has stopped 22 of 28 UFC takedowns; Gatto lands 27% of hers

GroundMelissa owns it

Four first-round submissions and 0.39 attempts per 15; Kareckaite has no UFC submission attempts and lost her debut on Barbosa's control

Path to Victory

Ernesta Kareckaite

Keep it standing and busy. She out-landed Caliari 95–67 while stopping 11 of 14 takedowns — repeat that, and let her third-round output decide the cards.

Why they win
01
Volume

5.62 significant strikes landed per minute against 3.47, and 35.3 per third round.

02
Takedown defence

79% (22 of 28 stopped) against a shooter who converts 27%.

03
Size

Four inches taller, with two inches more reach and two more of leg reach.

04
Late-round pace

Her output rises every round to 35.3 landed in Round 3, where Gatto averages 9.6.

05
Durability

Never knocked down and never finished in nine pro fights.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Jab and exit

    Use the four-inch height edge and 71-inch reach; 87% of her output already lands at distance.

  2. 2
    Sprawl and punish

    Every stuffed shot is a chance to land in bunches before Gatto resets.

  3. 3
    Stay off the fence early

    Opponents' control on her peaks in Round 1 at 92 seconds.

  4. 4
    Push the pace late

    Her output climbs to 35.3 landed in Round 3 — make Gatto carry that.

Path to Victory

Melissa Gatto

Get it down in Rounds 1 and 2 and hold the position — control beat Kareckaite on her UFC debut — or land the body shots that finished Eubanks and Vidal.

Why they win
01
Cleaner striking

50% accuracy and 2.67 absorbed per minute, against 40% and 4.89.

02
Takedowns

1.77 per 15 minutes (division average 1.44) and 9 in the UFC.

03
Submissions

Four first-round submissions and 0.39 attempts per 15.

04
Body work

29% of her strikes go to the body, and both of her late UFC stoppages came from body shots.

05
Experience

Six UFC fights and 76 minutes against three fights and 45.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Shoot early

    All nine of her UFC takedowns came in Rounds 1 and 2.

  2. 2
    Chain against the fence

    The 25-foot cage shortens the trip; single shots at 27% won't beat 79% defence.

  3. 3
    Go to the body

    Body strikes finished Eubanks and Vidal — and Kareckaite absorbs 4.89 per minute.

  4. 4
    Hold position

    Control is how Barbosa beat both of them.

Danger Zone

How Ernesta Kareckaite loses

  • Gatto chains takedowns early and holds position — Barbosa beat her that way despite losing the strike count 53–39.

  • The absorption catches up: she takes 4.89 per minute, and Gatto's body shots have finished two UFC opponents.

  • A scramble ends in Gatto's back-take or armbar — four of Gatto's wins are first-round submissions.

Danger Zone

How Melissa Gatto loses

  • Her shots don't land — she converts 27% and Kareckaite stops 79% — and she is left striking with a taller woman who throws far more.

  • Out-worked late: Kareckaite averages 35.3 landed in third rounds.

  • Another close card goes the other way — two of her three UFC losses were split or majority decisions.

Dione Barbosa

Same opponent, same result

Barbosa beat both women on control while losing the strike count to each. Kareckaite gave up 3:51 of control on her UFC debut; Gatto gave up 6:06 in April and lost a majority decision despite Barbosa's point deduction.

3:51
Barbosa's control time against Kareckaite
Where the fight turns

The shooter against the sprawl

Gatto shoots often but lands 9 of 33; Kareckaite has stopped 22 of 28 takedown attempts, including 11 of 14 against Caliari. If Gatto's conversion rate holds, most of her entries end in a reset.

79%
Kareckaite's UFC takedown defence (22 of 28)
Kareckaite's fights

Volume both ways

Kareckaite's UFC fights produce more than ten significant strikes landed per minute between the two fighters. Gatto's produce about six. One of these women is comfortable in a firefight; the other has built a career on avoiding one.

10.5
combined strikes landed per minute in Kareckaite's UFC fights
How it probably ends

Close cards

All four of Kareckaite's decision wins were split decisions, and two of Gatto's three UFC losses were split or majority decisions. The model sends 48 of 100 fights to the judges.

48
simulated fights that go the distance
Counterargument

What would change the selection

Gatto landing takedowns at anything like her attempt rate would tilt it her way; Kareckaite stuffing the first ten minutes would tilt it the other way. Neither is established by the record.

50
model win % each side

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

05

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things
1

Kareckaite's pace rises every round and her takedown defence is the best number either woman has; the cost is how often she gets hit.

2

Gatto has never been finished, wins by stoppage and loses on the cards — and Dione Barbosa beat both women the same way, on control.

3

The model has it 50/50, conviction 2/10, fair +100 each. It turns on whether Gatto's shots land against a defence built to stop them.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Kareckaite KO/TKO — 20%Kareckaite Decision — 22%Kareckaite Submission — 8%Gatto KO/TKO — 8%Gatto Decision — 26%Gatto Submission — 16%

Each square = 1 model percentage point. Ernesta Kareckaite gold · Melissa Gatto orange · color opacity: 100% = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Takedown conversion

Gatto lands 9 of 33; Kareckaite stops 79%. The whole fight turns on this matchup.

Volume against efficiency

5.62 landed and 4.89 absorbed per minute against 3.47 and 2.67.

A shared opponent

Barbosa beat both women on control, not on the strike count.

Sample and rust

Kareckaite has 45 UFC minutes; Gatto has fought four times since 2022.

Size

Four inches of height and two of reach for Kareckaite.

Fight Scripts

0%
of simulations

Gatto on control

Early takedowns and top time win Rounds 1 and 2; she holds on through Kareckaite's late surge for a decision.

Scripted outcomes for Ernesta Kareckaite vs Melissa Gatto — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Ernesta Kareckaite win probability
0%
20%
22%
8%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Twenty points — the model's view that her volume (35.3 landed per third round) can break an opponent late. She has no UFC knockdowns, and both career knockouts came in 2019.

  • Twenty-two points. All three of her UFC fights went the distance, and all four of her decision wins were split decisions.

  • Eight points — a tail outcome. No submission wins and no UFC submission attempts.

Melissa Gatto win probability
0%
8%
26%
16%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Eight points. Three KO/TKO wins, two of them body-shot stoppages early in Round 3, but Kareckaite has never been knocked down.

  • Twenty-six points, her largest route — control-based rounds in the first ten minutes, as Barbosa did to Kareckaite.

  • Sixteen points — four first-round submissions (two armbars, a rear-naked choke, a kimura) and 0.39 attempts per 15 minutes.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round
R1
Melissa
R2
Even
R3
Ernesta
29-28 Gatto
Takedowns win Rounds 1 and 2; Kareckaite takes the third
Most likely card inside Gatto's 26-point decision share
29-28 Kareckaite
Stops the early shots and wins Rounds 2 and 3 on volume
Inside Kareckaite's 22-point decision share
30-27 Gatto
Control in all three rounds
Inside the same 26 points

Model and price

Ernesta Kareckaite

Freshness unverified
Model win probability
50%
Fair odds
+100
Reference quote
-107 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds
2.00
Estimated EV
-3.3%
Edge vs no-vig market
+1.8 pp

Melissa Gatto

Freshness unverified
Model win probability
50%
Fair odds
+100
Reference quote
-125 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds
2.00
Estimated EV
-10.0%
Edge vs no-vig market
-1.8 pp

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Ernesta Kareckaite

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 2.00 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Melissa Gatto

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 2.00 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Analyst price notes

Written against the prices of October 5.

No side in the model, and neither woman is plus money at BetOnline. If a price is wrong, it is on the method: Gatto by submission is 16% (fair +525) and Kareckaite by KO/TKO 20% (fair +400). The model sends 48 of 100 fights the distance (fair +108), so any plus price on the decision is worth a look.

Conviction
0
2/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

No side. Kareckaite's volume, size and 79% takedown defence against Gatto's cleaner striking, grappling and submission record — with both women coming off decision losses. Conviction 2/10. Lean: Pick'em.

What backs the lean

  • Opposite strengths: output and takedown defence for Kareckaite, efficiency and grappling for Gatto.

  • Both lost to Dione Barbosa the same way — on control.

  • Neither has ever been finished.

  • Kareckaite's 79% takedown defence meets a shooter who converts 27%.

What limits it

  • Kareckaite's UFC rates come from three fights and 45 minutes.

  • Gatto has fought four times since 2022 and was out 22 months before April.

  • Kareckaite absorbs 4.89 strikes per minute — body shots finished two of Gatto's UFC opponents.

  • Close decisions are the likeliest ending, and both have lost close ones.

Final Assessment

Kareckaite vs Gatto is output against efficiency. Kareckaite lands 5.62 significant strikes per minute in the UFC — well above the women's flyweight average of 4.86 — gets busier every round and has stopped 22 of 28 takedown attempts, but she absorbs 4.89 per minute and is 1-2 in the Octagon. Gatto is 3-3, lands at 50% while absorbing only 2.67, and brings four first-round submissions and two body-shot stoppages, but she converts only 9 of 33 UFC takedowns.

The model makes it 50/50 with conviction 2/10: Kareckaite 22 decisions, 20 KO/TKO, 8 submissions; Gatto 26 decisions, 16 submissions, 8 KO/TKO. The fair price is +100 on both sides.

The swing factor is Gatto's takedown conversion against Kareckaite's defence. If Gatto gets it down in the first ten minutes and holds position, she wins the way Dione Barbosa beat both of them; if Kareckaite keeps it standing, her third-round volume should take the cards.

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