Ernesta Kareckaite vs Melissa Gatto – UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan Fight Analytics & Prediction

PRELIM · WOMEN'S FLYWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan

Ernesta Kareckaite

6W2L1D

High-Volume Distance Striker

…

Melissa Gatto

9W3L2D

Efficient Grappler

…

The highest output at either event against the woman who absorbs the least

Women's FlyweightUFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada, United StatesOctober 10, 2026UFC Apex — 25ft cage

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Two fighters at opposite statistical extremes, both coming off losses, and neither has ever been finished. Ernesta Kareckaite lands 7.28 significant strikes per minute — the highest figure of any of the forty-six fighters analysed across UFC 332 and UFC Vegas 122 — and absorbs 6.47, among the highest at either card. Melissa Gatto lands 3.47 at 50% accuracy and absorbs 2.67, less than half. Kareckaite is four inches taller with an output curve that climbs 106% across the fight, from 16.0 significant strikes landed in an average first round to 33.0 in a third; Gatto is the more efficient fighter with 89 and 116 seconds of control in the first two rounds, four career submissions to zero, and a third round in which her output collapses to 10.3 at 37.6% accuracy. The two women share an opponent: Dione Barbosa beat Kareckaite by unanimous decision in May 2024 and Gatto by majority decision in April 2026 — a narrow point for Gatto, and the only direct comparison available. The complication is that both of Gatto's Octagon wins arrived by third-round knockout, in exactly the round her numbers say she is weakest. Model: Kareckaite 52% / Gatto 48%, conviction 3/10.

Ernesta Kareckaite

Attribute

Melissa Gatto

Age

5'9" (69")+4" Kareckaite

Height

5'5" (65")

71"

Reach

69"

High-volume distance striking

Fighting Style

Brazilian jiu-jitsu — four career submissions

Kaunas, Lithuania

Origin

State of São Paulo, Brazil

7.28 SLpM — highest at this event

Output

3.47 SLpM

6.47 per minute

Damage Absorbed

2.67 per minute

Coming off a decision loss to Regina Tarin

Recent Form

Coming off a majority-decision loss to Dione Barbosa

Four inches of height and two of reach to Kareckaite, which is a wide frame gap at 125 pounds and the structural basis of a 7.28-strikes-per-minute output. She lands 81.3%, 84.0% and 95.5% of her offence at distance across the three rounds — the distance share rising as the fight goes on. Gatto is the shorter, denser fighter and her answer is the one shorter fighters reach for: get inside, get a grip, and bank control time. Her 89 and 116 seconds in the first two rounds are among the highest figures on this card.

Venue Factor
The UFC Apex uses a 25-foot cage rather than the 30-foot event Octagon — five fewer feet of retreat in every direction, which taxes range fighters and rewards anyone who wants a back against the fence. In this bout it cuts toward the grappler: four inches of height is less useful in a room with five fewer feet of retreat, and 116 seconds of second-round control is a fence statistic.

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Ernesta Kareckaite

Pro Record

6-2-1

UFC Record

1-2 across two scored Octagon bouts

Streak

Coming off a unanimous-decision loss

Finish Rate

33% (2 of 6 wins) — 2 KO/TKO, 0 submissions, 4 decisions

Avg Fight Time

15:00 in the UFC

Chin · Durable — never stoppedSOS · Hexagone champion level, plus three Octagon boutsHigh-volume distance striker

A Lithuanian who won the Hexagone MMA title on split decisions and has brought exactly that profile to the UFC: nine professional fights, six of them decided on the cards, and not one finish since 2019. Kareckaite lost to Dione Barbosa at UFC 301 in May 2024, edged Nicolle Caliari by split decision in January 2025, and dropped a unanimous decision to Regina Tarin in February 2026 — Tarin fights JJ Aldrich on the Noche UFC card four weeks before this bout. Her rate line is the most extreme volume profile at either October event: 7.28 significant strikes landed per minute, the highest figure of any of the forty-six fighters analysed, alongside 6.47 absorbed — also among the highest. Her output climbs relentlessly across the fight, 16.0 to 25.0 to 33.0, and her UFC average fight time is exactly 15:00 because every one of her Octagon bouts has gone the distance.

Melissa Gatto

Pro Record

9-3-2

UFC Record

3-3 across five scored Octagon bouts

Streak

Coming off a majority-decision loss to Dione Barbosa

Finish Rate

78% (7 of 9 wins) — 3 KO/TKO, 4 submissions, 2 decisions

Avg Fight Time

12:44 in the UFC

Chin · Durable — never stoppedSOS · Established UFC flyweightEfficient grappler

A Brazilian jiu-jitsu fighter who has spent five years in the Octagon and only three of the last four calendar years actually fighting. Gatto knocked out Sijara Eubanks in the third round in December 2021, lost decisions to Tracy Cortez and Ariane Lipski, knocked out Tamires Vidal in the third round in May 2024, then disappeared for almost two years before losing a majority decision to Dione Barbosa in April 2026. Her profile is the mirror of her opponent's: 3.47 significant strikes landed per minute at 50% accuracy behind 2.67 absorbed — less than half Kareckaite's figure — with 1.77 takedowns per fifteen minutes and 89 and 116 seconds of control in the first two rounds. Four of her nine wins came by submission.

Ernesta Kareckaite

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Knockdown Exchange

KD dealt vs absorbed

Melissa Gatto

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Ernesta Kareckaitesignature weapons

Escalating Volume16.0, 25.0 and 33.0 significant strikes landed across the three rounds — a 106% rise, and the highest third-round output by any woman at either October event

×6

Four Inches and 81% Takedown DefenceA four-inch height advantage and 81% takedown defence against an opponent who attempts 1.77 takedowns per fifteen minutes

×6

Melissa Gattosignature weapons

The Submission GameFour career submissions and 0.39 attempts per fifteen minutes, off 89 and 116 seconds of control in the first two rounds

×4

The Late KnockoutThird-round finishes of Sijara Eubanks at 0:45 and Tamires Vidal at 0:37 — both of her UFC wins arrived in the final round

×3

Ernesta Kareckaite

Regina Tarin

Decision — Unanimous

RR3

UFC FN: Moreno vs. Kavanagh — Feb 28, 2026

Nicolle Caliari

Decision — Split

RR3

UFC FN: Dern vs. Ribas 2 — Jan 11, 2025

Dione Barbosa

Decision — Unanimous

RR3

UFC 301 — May 4, 2024

Carli Judice

Decision — Split

RR3

Dana White's Contender Series S7 — Sep 26, 2023

Laetitia Blot

Decision — Split

RR5

Hexagone MMA 6 — Jan 22, 2023

Pattern

Six of her nine professional fights went to the scorecards and four of the wins were split decisions — this is a fighter who wins narrow rounds rather than fights. The Regina Tarin loss in February 2026 is the most recent and the most relevant: Tarin out-pointed her over three rounds, and Tarin fights on the Noche UFC card four weeks before this bout. Nobody has ever finished Kareckaite.

Melissa Gatto

Dione Barbosa

Decision — Majority

RR3

UFC FN: Moicano vs. Duncan — Apr 4, 2026

Tamires Vidal

KO/TKO

RR3 (0:37)

UFC FN: Barboza vs. Murphy — May 18, 2024

Ariane Lipski

Decision — Split

RR3

UFC FN: Strickland vs. Magomedov — Jul 1, 2023

Tracy Cortez

Decision — Unanimous

RR3

UFC 274 — May 7, 2022

Sijara Eubanks

KO/TKO

RR3 (0:45)

UFC FN: Lewis vs. Daukaus — Dec 18, 2021

Pattern

One fight between July 2023 and April 2026, and it was a third-round knockout of Tamires Vidal. That is the shape of her career: long gaps, and then a finish arriving in the last five minutes. The Dione Barbosa majority-decision loss in April 2026 is her most recent and her narrowest, and she has never been stopped in fourteen professional fights.

Ernesta Kareckaite

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Melissa Gatto

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Critical Insight
Two charts that reverse each other and both close exactly — Kareckaite 2 knockouts and 4 decisions in 6 wins, Gatto 3 knockouts, 4 submissions and 2 decisions in 9. Two-thirds of everything Kareckaite has won came on the cards and she has zero career submissions; 44% of Gatto's wins came by tap. The round columns carry the more interesting fact: both of Gatto's Octagon wins landed in the third round, at 0:45 and 0:37, in exactly the frame where her measured output is weakest. Between them these two have twenty-three professional fights and no stoppage losses at all, which is why 75 of 100 simulations below end on the scorecards.

Common Opponents

Opponent	Ernesta	Melissa
Dione Barbosa	L· Unanimous decision (UFC 301, May 2024)	L· Majority decision (Apr 2026)
The only shared opponent, and both lost — Gatto more narrowly and two years later, which is the single strongest line on her side of the page
Regina Tarin (also on the October calendar)	L· Unanimous decision (Feb 2026)	—never faced
Tarin fights JJ Aldrich on the Noche UFC card four weeks before this bout; she out-pointed Kareckaite over three rounds in February
Tracy Cortez and Ariane Lipski (level proxies)	—never faced	L· decision to both
Gatto's losses are all to established Octagon names and all on the cards; she has never been finished in fourteen professional fights

Ernesta

0.0

Melissa

Six points against a four-point model line. The projection is narrower than the gauges because Gatto beat the shared opponent more closely and more recently, and because two of her career wins are third-round knockouts.

Metric	Ernesta	Melissa
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	15:00 — every UFC bout has gone the distance	12:44 (UFC)
Pace Tier	7.28 SLpM — highest at either event	3.47 SLpM
R3 Output	33.0 landed — highest by any woman here	10.3 landed at 37.6% accuracy
Damage Absorbed	6.47 per minute	2.67 per minute
Control Time (R1/R2)	26 / 91 seconds	89 / 116 seconds

Archetype Base Rate

High-Volume Distance Striker 52%48% Efficient Grappler

No archetype base-rate row exists for this pairing · No historical archetype rate is applied. The 52/48 rests on an output advantage of more than two to one that widens every round, four inches of height, 81% takedown defence, and an average fight time of exactly 15:00 against an opponent whose third round is her worst. It is capped almost to nothing by the shared opponent reading Gatto's way, four career submissions to zero, 89 and 116 seconds of control in the first two rounds, and the fact that both of Gatto's Octagon wins arrived in the third round by knockout.

Ernesta KareckaiteMelissa Gatto

Women's Flyweight

· 32 fighters

Stat	Ernesta	Ernesta rank	Div avg	Melissa rank	Melissa
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	7.28	—	~3.95	—	3.47
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	42%	—	~42%	—	50%
Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit.	50%	—	~57%	—	54%
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	6.47	—	~3.72	—	2.67
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	0.75	—	~1.81	—	1.77
TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed.	81%	—	~62%	—	59%
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	0.00 (0 career subs)	—	~0.61	—	0.39 (4 career subs)
Career Finish Rate	33% (2 of 6)	—	—	—	78% (7 of 9)
Times Finished	0	—	—	—	0
Height	69"	—	~66"	—	65"
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	15:00	—	—	—	12:44

Statistical Verdict
Kareckaite is nearly double the divisional baseline on output — 7.28 significant strikes per minute against ~3.95 — and 2.75 strikes per minute worse than it on damage absorbed, with 81% takedown defence nineteen points above the benchmark. Gatto is below baseline on output and takedown volume, above it on accuracy and damage taken, and three points below on takedown defence. The two rows at the bottom are the honest summary: neither woman has ever been finished, and one of them has an average UFC fight time of exactly fifteen minutes.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

Control Time per Round (sec)

Ernesta Kareckaite

The steepest volume curve at either October event: 16.0, 25.0 and 33.0 significant strikes landed — a 106% rise — with accuracy essentially flat between 37.2% and 39.8%.
Her distance share climbs with the volume: 81.3%, 84.0%, 95.5%. By the third round she is fighting almost entirely at range, which is what four inches of height should produce.
Control time of 26, 91 and 33 seconds — the second-round figure is real and it is the only frame where she competes on position.
Both rows rest on two scored rounds. Her three UFC bouts all went the distance, which is why her average fight time reads exactly 15:00.

Melissa Gatto

Her second round is comfortably her best: 27.0 significant strikes landed at 54.2% accuracy with 116 seconds of control — more than a third of the round.
The third-round collapse is the number that decides this fight: output falling to 10.3 landed at 37.6%, and control time from 116 seconds to 16.
Her 0.25 knockdown average in the third round is the only knockdown figure in this bout — and both of her UFC wins arrived by third-round knockout, at 0:45 and 0:37.
Fourteen scored rounds across five Octagon bouts, but with a two-year gap between May 2024 and April 2026 sitting inside the sample.

Critical Insight
Two curves crossing hard in the third round. Gatto owns the first ten minutes on control and efficiency — 89 and 116 seconds of control at 51.9% and 54.2% accuracy against 37.2% and 38.5% — and then falls off a cliff, output down to 10.3 and control down to 16 seconds. Kareckaite does the reverse, climbing to 33.0 significant strikes landed with 95.5% of it at distance. On the measured data the final round is a landslide. The reason this fight is still a coin flip is that both of Melissa Gatto's Octagon wins arrived in that same round, by knockout, at 0:45 and 0:37.

Strike Targeting (career avg)

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Range Profile — where the minutes go

ErnestaMelissa

87%Distance85%

8%Clinch9%

5%Ground6%

Share of significant-strike volume by range from UFC career data. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much

Open SpaceErnesta owns it

Four inches of height, two of reach, and 7.28 significant strikes landed per minute against 3.47

Pocket / ExchangesMelissa owns it

Gatto is eight points more accurate and absorbs less than half as much; her 0.25 third-round knockdown average is the only one in the bout

ClinchMelissa owns it

89 and 116 seconds of control in the first two rounds against 26 and 91, with more than twice the takedown volume

GroundMelissa owns it

Four career submissions against zero and 0.39 attempts per fifteen against 0.00 — but into 81% takedown defence

Path to Victory

Ernesta Kareckaite

Make it a fifteen-minute fight. Her third round is 33.0 landed and her opponent's is 10.3.

Why they win

The highest output at either October event

7.28 significant strikes landed per minute — more than any of the forty-six fighters analysed.

A 106% output curve

16.0 to 33.0 landed across three rounds, against an opponent whose output collapses to 10.3.

Four inches of height and two of reach

And a distance share climbing to 95.5% by the third round.

81% takedown defence

Nineteen points above the divisional baseline, against 1.77 takedown attempts per fifteen minutes.

An average fight time of exactly 15:00

Every UFC bout she has had went the distance — she is built for the round her opponent is worst in.

Never finished in nine professional fights

Against a woman whose only two Octagon wins came by third-round knockout.

The gameplan

1
Throw from the opening bell
Her first round is her quietest at 16.0 landed and it is the round Gatto wins on control. Closing that gap changes the whole card.
2
Use the four inches
95.5% of her third-round offence already lands at distance — the jab is what makes the volume possible.
3
Defend the entry, not the takedown
Gatto converts only 3% of her attempts; the danger is the fence and the clinch rather than the clean shot.
4
Do not stand still after minute eleven
Gatto has finished two UFC opponents in the third round despite her worst measured output arriving there.
5
Attack the body in the second
It is Gatto's best round and the cheapest way to make her third round even worse than it already is.
6
Contingency — if Plan A fails
If she is down two rounds on control, the third is hers by every measured column — she needs to spend all of it.

Path to Victory

Melissa Gatto

Bank the first two on control. Her second round is the best five minutes either woman produces.

Why they win

She lost more narrowly to the shared opponent

A majority decision to Dione Barbosa in April 2026 against Kareckaite's unanimous-decision loss in May 2024.

Half the damage absorbed

2.67 significant strikes per minute against 6.47, behind eight points more accuracy.

89 and 116 seconds of control

In the first two rounds, against 26 and 91 — she owns the phase that scores when volume does not.

Four career submissions against zero

And 0.39 attempts per fifteen minutes against 0.00.

Both UFC wins by third-round knockout

At 0:45 and 0:37 — in exactly the round her rate line says she is weakest.

The 25-foot Apex cage

It shrinks four inches of height and shortens the path to the fence.

The gameplan

1
Get a grip early
89 seconds of control in the first round is her most reliable scoring mechanism, and Kareckaite is at her quietest there.
2
Win the second decisively
27.0 landed at 54.2% with 116 seconds of control — the best five minutes either woman produces. Two rounds banked changes everything.
3
Use the fence in a 25-foot cage
Four inches of height matters less with five fewer feet of retreat, and her control numbers are fence numbers.
4
Hunt the submission, not the position
Four career submissions against a woman with zero, who absorbs 6.47 significant strikes per minute and will be breathing hard.
5
Pace for the third
Her output collapses to 10.3 there and both of her UFC wins arrived in it. The two facts are not contradictory if she saves something.
6
Contingency — if Plan A fails
If she is behind after two rounds, the third-round knockout is a genuine card she has played twice — 0:45 and 0:37.

Danger Zone

How Ernesta Kareckaite loses

She is out-controlled for ten minutes and loses two rounds on position before her volume advantage ever registers.
She absorbs 6.47 significant strikes per minute against a woman with four career submissions and gets caught in a scramble.
The third-round surge arrives on schedule and runs into the exact round Gatto has finished two Octagon opponents in.

Danger Zone

How Melissa Gatto loses

Her output collapses to 10.3 in the third as it always does, and 33.0 landed on the other side makes it a shutout round.
The takedowns run into 81% defence, the control time never materialises, and she loses on volume without ever being hurt.
Four inches of height keeps her at the end of a jab for fifteen minutes at a pace she has not fought since 2024.

And the fourth-highest damage taken

The Highest Output at Either Event

Ernesta Kareckaite lands 7.28 significant strikes per minute — more than any of the forty-six fighters analysed across UFC 332 and UFC Vegas 122 — and absorbs 6.47, among the highest at either card. She has also never been finished in nine professional fights, which is the only reason that second number has not yet cost her.

7.28 / 6.47

significant strikes landed and absorbed per minute

And how they lost matters

A Shared Opponent Both Lost To

Dione Barbosa beat Ernesta Kareckaite by unanimous decision at UFC 301 in May 2024 and beat Melissa Gatto by majority decision in April 2026. Gatto lost more narrowly and two years more recently — a small point in her favour, and the only direct comparison available.

UD v MD

losses to Dione Barbosa

The third round

Thirty-Three Against Ten Point Three

Kareckaite lands 33.0 significant strikes in an average third round — the highest late-round figure by any woman at either event — while Gatto's collapses to 10.3 at 37.6% accuracy with control time falling from 116 seconds to 16. It is the widest single-round gap on this card and it is where the projection lives.

33.0 v 10.3

sig. strikes landed, average Round 3

The counter-argument

Both of Gatto's UFC Wins Came in Round Three

Melissa Gatto knocked out Sijara Eubanks at 0:45 of the third round in December 2021 and Tamires Vidal at 0:37 of the third in May 2024. Her measured third-round output is her worst — and both of her Octagon victories arrived in exactly that round, which is a pattern no rate line captures.

Which is why this goes long

Neither Woman Has Ever Been Finished

Kareckaite is 6-2-1 with zero stoppage losses in nine fights; Gatto is 9-3-2 with zero in fourteen. Between them they have twenty-three professional fights and no finishes against. Every UFC bout Kareckaite has had went the full fifteen minutes.

The Five-Round Clock

Ernesta Kareckaite danger windowMelissa Gatto danger windowNeutral / contested

R1 · 0:00–5:00Gatto's control round

89 seconds of control and 11.2 landed at 51.9% accuracy — her most efficient frame — against Kareckaite's 16.0 at 37.2%, her quietest. It is the only round in which Gatto out-controls and out-scores her.

Critical Insight
The cleanest crossing point on the prelims. Gatto owns the first two rounds on control and efficiency — 89 and 116 seconds against 26 and 91, at 51.9% and 54.2% accuracy against 37.2% and 38.5% — and Kareckaite owns the third by a factor of three, 33.0 significant strikes landed against 10.3. On the measured evidence that is a 29-28 either way depending on how a judge weighs control against volume. What the table cannot show is that both of Melissa Gatto's UFC wins arrived in the third round by knockout, at 0:45 and 0:37, which makes the round Kareckaite dominates statistically also the round she is most likely to be finished in.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things

Ernesta Kareckaite lands 7.28 significant strikes per minute — the highest figure of all forty-six fighters analysed across both October cards — and absorbs 6.47, among the highest.

Melissa Gatto owns the first two rounds on control (89 and 116 seconds) and collapses to 10.3 landed in the third — the round in which both of her UFC wins have arrived by knockout.

Model: Kareckaite 52% / Gatto 48%, conviction 3/10 — one of the closest calls on either card, with 75 of 100 outcomes reaching the scorecards.

100 Simulated Fights

Kareckaite Decision — 43%Gatto Decision — 32%Gatto Submission — 9%Kareckaite KO/TKO — 9%Gatto KO/TKO — 7%Kareckaite Submission — 0%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. Ernesta Kareckaite gold · Melissa Gatto orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

The output gap

7.28 significant strikes landed per minute against 3.47, widening to 33.0 against 10.3 by the third round.

The control gap

89 and 116 seconds for Gatto in the first two rounds against 26 and 91 — the phase that scores when volume does not.

The shared opponent

Dione Barbosa beat both; Gatto more narrowly and two years more recently.

Four inches of height against a 25-foot cage

Kareckaite's frame advantage in the worst venue for using it.

Damage absorbed

6.47 per minute against 2.67 — Kareckaite takes nearly two and a half times as much punishment.

Gatto's third-round knockouts

Both of her Octagon wins arrived at 0:45 and 0:37 of a third round her rate line says she is weakest in.

Fight Scripts

of simulations

The Volume Wears Her Down

Kareckaite throws 7.28 significant strikes per minute, climbs from 16.0 to 33.0 landed across the fight, and takes the third round by a factor of three. Every UFC bout she has had went the full fifteen minutes, and Gatto's third-round output collapses to 10.3 at 37.6%.

Scripted outcomes for Ernesta Kareckaite vs Melissa Gatto — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Ernesta Kareckaite win probability

43%

KO/TKODECSUB

Two career knockouts, neither since 2019, and no knockdown recorded in any scored UFC round. Small, and mostly the branch where sheer accumulated volume stops a fading opponent.
Almost her entire column, and the honest one: every UFC bout she has fought went the full fifteen minutes, and her output climbs 106% from the first round to the third.
Zero career submissions and 0.00 attempts per fifteen minutes. Empty because the skill is absent.

Melissa Gatto win probability

32%

KO/TKODECSUB

Three career knockouts and both of her UFC wins arrived by third-round stoppage, at 0:45 and 0:37. Her 0.25 third-round knockdown average is the only one in this bout.
Her largest bucket and the shape of the fight she wants: 89 and 116 seconds of control in the first two rounds at 50% accuracy, banking frames on position rather than output.
Four career submissions and 0.39 attempts per fifteen minutes against a woman with zero — running into 81% takedown defence, which is why the number is nine rather than fifteen.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round

Melissa

Ernesta

29-28 Gatto

Control time takes the first two; the volume takes the third

Genuinely the most likely single card, which is why this is only 52/48

29-28 Kareckaite

She steals one of the first two on volume and wins the third outright

Equally live — her second round is 25.0 landed against 27.0

30-27 Kareckaite

The output gap decides all three rounds

Requires judges to score throwing over controlling

Moneyline

Ernesta Kareckaite

Not posted

Melissa Gatto

Not posted

No book has published a line for this bout at the time of writing. Converting our own probabilities gives fair prices of Ernesta Kareckaite -108 from 52% and Melissa Gatto -108 from 48% — model outputs, not quotes, and about as close to a true pick'em as this series produces. Live prices appear in the hero above once a market opens.

Props: model vs market

Prop	Odds	Implied %	Model %	Fair	Edge	Verdict

Best Value
The fight going the distance at 75% is the structural read and the highest decision share at either October event — neither woman has been finished in twenty-three combined professional fights. Gatto by submission at 9% is the most under-priced individual outcome: four career submissions against an opponent with zero, who absorbs 6.47 significant strikes per minute and will be tired in the round Gatto has twice finished people in. If a market opens with a meaningful favourite either way, the underdog is worth a look — this is a genuine 50-50.

Conviction

3/10

As close to a coin flip as this analysis series produces, and the conviction rating says so. Kareckaite has the highest output figure at either October event, four inches of height, 81% takedown defence and an average fight time of exactly fifteen minutes; Gatto has half the damage absorbed, eight points more accuracy, 116 seconds of second-round control, four career submissions to zero, and the narrower loss to their shared opponent. The measured third round is a landslide for Kareckaite — and it is also the round in which both of Gatto's Octagon wins have arrived, by knockout. Lean: Ernesta Kareckaite.

What backs the lean

7.28 significant strikes landed per minute — the highest at either October event.
An output curve climbing 106% to 33.0 landed in a third round where Gatto falls to 10.3.
Four inches of height and two of reach, with a 95.5% third-round distance share.
81% takedown defence, nineteen points above the divisional baseline.
An average UFC fight time of exactly 15:00 — every Octagon bout has gone the distance.
Never finished in nine professional fights.

What limits it

She absorbs 6.47 significant strikes per minute against 2.67 — nearly two and a half times as much.
Gatto lost more narrowly and more recently to their shared opponent, Dione Barbosa.
89 and 116 seconds of control in the first two rounds against 26 and 91.
Four career submissions against zero, at 0.39 attempts per fifteen minutes against 0.00.
Both of Gatto's UFC wins are third-round knockouts, at 0:45 and 0:37.
The 25-foot Apex cage shrinks the four-inch height advantage Kareckaite depends on.

Final Assessment

In roughly fifty-two of one hundred simulations Ernesta Kareckaite wins, and in forty-three of those she wins on the scorecards. The mechanism is the highest output figure at either October card applied for fifteen minutes: 7.28 significant strikes per minute, climbing from 16.0 landed in an average first round to 33.0 in a third, from four inches of height with 95.5% of it at distance. Every UFC bout she has fought has gone the full fifteen minutes, and her opponent's third round is the worst five minutes on her sheet.

In the other forty-eight, Melissa Gatto gets a grip. Eighty-nine and 116 seconds of control in the first two rounds at 51.9% and 54.2% accuracy is a scorecard argument that does not require her to out-throw anybody, and she absorbs 2.67 significant strikes per minute against 6.47. Thirty-two of those simulations are decisions, nine end with the fifth submission of her career, and seven are knockouts — most of them in a third round she has already finished two Octagon opponents in.

This is the closest fight on either card and the page does not pretend otherwise. One woman throws more than anyone at either event and one absorbs less than anyone in this bout; they share an opponent who beat them both; and neither has ever been finished in twenty-three professional fights between them. On October 10 at the Apex — Kareckaite 52% / Gatto 48%, conviction 3/10.

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