Everything in Ribeiro's UFC record turns on one question: did the opponent take him down? Five of his eight UFC opponents landed at least one takedown, and he went 1-4 against them; the only win came from a kimura off his back. The three who stayed standing produced a split-decision win and two knockouts against him. His 32% takedown defence is not a quirk of a few attempts — 19 of 28 conceded against wrestlers of different styles, from Gadzhiyasulov's five of five to Tuchalov's eight — and the attempts land more easily as the fight goes on, nine of nine in third rounds. Franco attempts a takedown roughly every three minutes of UFC cage time, and his only UFC win was a takedown, a mount and a stoppage. That is the core of the 64/36 lean.
The caution is how little UFC time Franco has. His UFC career is 21 minutes and 40 seconds, and more than two-thirds of it came at heavyweight on short notice against Mario Pinto, now 13-0. That fight drags his striking numbers down (21 landed to 34, 3 of 19 in Round 2) and flatters his takedown defence (12 of 14 stopped against a bigger man). At his own weight he has one fight, 6:40 long, against a debutant who has since lost again. The model treats the Pinto fight as evidence of durability and defensive wrestling, and the Rodrigues fight as evidence of the game plan. It does not treat either as proof that Franco can hold top position against a heavier-handed striker for fifteen minutes, which is why the conviction stops at 5.
Ribeiro's case is concentrated in time and in technique. In time, it is Round 1: his best output, his only UFC knockdown, eleven of his seventeen career wins, and the round in which Franco has been hurt in both UFC fights. In technique, it is the counter-grappling of a man who says his favourite grappling move is the guillotine and whose only UFC finish came from the bottom. A fighter who throws nearly five takedown attempts every fifteen minutes will give him chances at both. The model keeps 27% of its outcomes on Ribeiro finishes — 20 by knockout, 7 by submission — mostly in the first round, and only 9% on a Ribeiro decision, because he has lost both UFC decisions against wrestlers and has one decision win in 29 fights.
