Andre Fili vs Kai Kamaka III: analysis & prediction

MAIN CARD · FEATHERWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan
Andre Fili — Featherweight fighter

Andre Fili

25W14L
Phase-Changing Veteran
VS
Kai Kamaka III — Featherweight fighter

Kai Kamaka III

18W8L1D
Volume Striker

Fili can change phases against Kamaka's striking pace

FeatherweightMeta APEXOctober 10, 202625ft Octagon (Meta APEX)

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Kamaka wants a pure striking contest at his pace, stacking combinations even though he gets hit plenty in those trades. Fili should not match that volume; his route is the longer reach, punishing overextended combinations and turning exchanges into level changes and top position, the mix that beat Cub Swanson. If the takedowns stall and it stays a kickboxing match, Kamaka's output starts winning rounds.

Paths that change the fight

  • Andre FiliMix striking with level changes, punish overextended combinations and use top-position offence to break Kamaka's rhythm.
  • Kai Kamaka IIIForce Fili to defend successive combinations, remain balanced on exits and prevent a lost striking exchange from becoming a lost grappling sequence.
What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 4/10
  • Kamaka 5.49 SLpM and 59% accuracy.
  • Fili 36 on a two-fight 2026 skid.

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Andre Fili

Freshness unverified
Model win probability
54%
Fair odds
-117
Reference quote
-150 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds
1.85

Kai Kamaka III

Freshness unverified
Model win probability
46%
Fair odds
+117
Reference quote
+128 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds
2.17
Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Sources and data limitations

Career statistics and fight results through September 2026. Composite scores (Fili 39/46 striking/grappling; Kamaka 52/38), probabilities and fair prices are MMA Analytics model outputs.

Model methodology
Read the evidenceInspect prices and assumptions
01

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Andre Fili is a 36-year-old veteran on a two-fight skid, and Kai Kamaka III was stopped by Luke Riley in July, soon after his return to the UFC. The fight asks whether an experienced phase-changer can keep a younger, relentless combination puncher from turning it into a strike count. Fili's recent fights have mostly gone to split decisions, with his wrestling winning rounds and his durability under constant question. The swing is Kamaka's defence: he gives up plenty in return for his volume, which leaves openings for a veteran patient enough to pick his moments.

Andre Fili
Attribute
Kai Kamaka III
36
Age
+5 years Fili31
5' 11"+4" Fili
Height
5' 7"
74"+5" Fili
Reach
69"
40"+2" Fili
Leg Reach
38"
25-14-0 (1 NC)
Pro Record
18-8-1
13-13, 1 NC (27 bouts)
UFC Record
2-3-1 (6 bouts)
Mix striking and wrestling
Fighting Style
High-volume combinations

Fili owns four inches of height and five inches of reach at featherweight — meaningful for intercepting Kamaka's combination entries.

Venue Factor
The 25-foot APEX cage shortens the trip to the fence for Fili's takedowns and gives Kamaka less room to reset between combinations; three rounds still favour Kamaka if it stays a striking contest at his pace.
02

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Andre Fili in the Octagon

Andre Fili

Pro Record
25-14-0 (1 NC)
UFC Record
13-13 (1 NC) across 27 UFC bouts since 2013
Streak
Two losses — split decision to Delgado, TKO by Oliveira (2026)
Finish Rate
13 finishes in 25 wins — 10 KO/TKO, 3 submissions
Avg Fight Time
10:41
Chin · Vulnerable — 7 knockdowns absorbed in 27 UFC bouts; stopped by strikes four times, three since 2022SOS · Veteran schedulePhase-changing veteran

Twenty-seven UFC appearances since 2013. Fili still mixes 2.24 takedowns per fifteen at 46% into his striking, and three of his last five fights were split decisions. He arrives off a split-decision loss to Jose Miguel Delgado and a second-round stoppage by Vinicius Oliveira; the Kamaka matchup asks whether wrestling still scores against higher volume.

Kai Kamaka III striking

Kai Kamaka III

Pro Record
18-8-1
UFC Record
2-3-1 — returned in 2026 after going 9-3 outside the UFC
Streak
One loss — TKO by Luke Riley, R1 (3:03), Jul 2026
Finish Rate
4 finishes in 18 wins — 3 KO/TKO, 1 submission; 14 decisions
Avg Fight Time
12:05
Chin · Tested — 2 knockdowns absorbed in 6 UFC bouts; stopped by Pearce (2020) and Riley (2026)SOS · MixedVolume striker

Kamaka's first UFC run (2020–21) went 1-2-1, then he went 9-3 in Bellator, PFL and Tuff-N-Uff before returning. He beat Dakota Hope on a split decision at lightweight in April and was stopped by Luke Riley in the first round in July. His 5.49 SLpM at 59% is the best-case standing script; 6.03 SApM is the counter-argument.

Andre Fili
0 dealt · 0 absorbed
Knockdown Exchange
Knockdowns dealt vs absorbed.
Kai Kamaka III
0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Andre Filisignature weapons

PunchesLatest: Lucas Almeida, R1 (3:32), Dec 2023
×8
Head KickLatest: Gabriel Benítez, R1 (3:13), Nov 2015
×2
ArmbarBoth in 2012, before the UFC
×2
Triangle ChokeApr 2012, before the UFC
×1

Kai Kamaka IIIsignature weapons

PunchesLatest: Michel da Cruz Lima (KO), R3 (4:48), Jan 2026
×3
Rear-Naked ChokeAug 2014, before the UFC
×1

Andre Fili

L
Vinicius Oliveira
TKO — Punches and elbows

Opponent context: prospect

R2 (4:56)
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi — Jun 20, 2026
L
Jose Miguel Delgado
Decision — Split

Opponent context: prospect

R3 (5:00)
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos — Mar 14, 2026
W
Christian Rodriguez
Decision — Split

Opponent context: ufc

R3 (5:00)
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez — Aug 9, 2025
L
Melquizael Costa
Submission — Guillotine choke

Opponent context: ufc

R1 (4:30)
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song, Seattle — Feb 22, 2025
W
Cub Swanson
Decision — Split

Opponent context: veteran

R3 (5:00)
UFC 303, Las Vegas — Jun 29, 2024
Pattern

One win in his last four — the Rodriguez split decision — around the Costa guillotine, the Delgado split and the Oliveira stoppage. Three of his last five went to split decisions: the wrestling still wins rounds, the durability is the question.

Kai Kamaka III

L
Luke Riley
TKO — Knees and punches

Opponent context: prospect

R1 (3:03)
UFC 329 — Jul 11, 2026
W
Dakota Hope
Decision — Split (lightweight)

Opponent context: ufc

R3 (5:00)
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan — Apr 4, 2026
W
Michel da Cruz Lima
KO — Punch

Opponent context: ufc adjacent

R3 (4:48)
Tuff-N-Uff 151, Las Vegas — Jan 22, 2026
L
Diego Brandão
Decision — Split (title fight)

Opponent context: veteran

R5 (5:00)
Tuff-N-Uff 149, Las Vegas — Oct 25, 2025
W
Sitik Muduev
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: ufc adjacent

R3 (5:00)
Tuff-N-Uff 145, Las Vegas — Jun 29, 2025
Pattern

Two regional wins and a five-round split loss to Diego Brandão, then a split-decision win over Dakota Hope and a first-round stoppage by Luke Riley. Fourteen of his 18 pro wins came on the cards.

Andre Fili

Win Methods
Wins by Round

Kai Kamaka III

Win Methods
Wins by Round
Critical Insight
Fili's 13 finishes came early — eight in R1, four in R2 — while 12 of his 25 wins are decisions. Kamaka has 14 decisions in 18 wins, and two of his four finishes came in the third round. The model gives Fili the larger decision bucket (32 points) through phase changes.

Opposition strength (no shared opponents)

Without a reliable shared-opponent table, compare who each fighter has been tested against using SOS tier, UFC sample size, and recent elite-tier form — not raw records alone.

FactorAndreKai
Strength of schedule (SOS tier)Veteran schedule — Holloway, Kattar, Yusuff, Mitchell, Swanson, Costa, Oliveira — 27 UFC fights since 2013Mixed — Kelley and Hope wins; Pearce, Brown and Riley losses; split losses to Loughnane and Brandão outside the UFC
UFC sample13-13 (1 NC) across 27 UFC bouts since 20132-3-1 — returned in 2026 after going 9-3 outside the UFC
Recent ranked / elite touches (last 5)0 elite · 1 veteran tier0 elite · 1 veteran tier
Form-window difficulty edge: Fighter A (4 vs 3 tier points in listed bouts).
Last three opponentsVinicius Oliveira, Jose Miguel Delgado, Christian RodriguezLuke Riley, Dakota Hope, Michel da Cruz Lima
03

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and UFC experience before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

SLpM 25% · StrAcc 30% · StrDef 30% · SApM 15%

0
Andre
0
Kai

Kamaka's volume (5.49) and accuracy (59%) against Fili's lower absorption (4.55 vs 6.03).

Grappling

TD/15 25% · TDAcc 25% · TDDef 30% · Sub/15 20%

0
Andre
0
Kai

Fili 2.24 TD/15 and 72% TDDef vs Kamaka 1.45 and 55%; both 0.21 Sub/15.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

0.0
Andre
0
Kai

Slight Kamaka lean on strikes; Fili on grappling.

MetricAndreKai
Volume3.89 SLpM5.49 SLpM
Absorption4.55 SApM6.03 SApM
TD/152.241.45
TD Defence72%55%
UFC Bouts276

Archetype Base Rate

Phase-Changing Veteran 54%46% Volume Striker

Model lean · 54/46 model lean — Fili's takedowns and phase changes vs Kamaka's volume.

Andre FiliKai Kamaka III

Featherweight

· 74 fighters

Rank bars use the recorded division cohort. Where a rank is unavailable, the comparison shows the difference from the published division average; the white marker denotes equality. Percentage differences are percentage points (pp). Higher is not always better: fewer strikes absorbed is preferable. Missing benchmarks are not estimated.

StatAndreAndre comparisonDiv avgKai comparisonKai
SLpM3.89
43/74
4.18
12/74
5.49
Str Acc38%
65/74
47.2%
8/74
59%
Str Def50%
50/74
52.9%
29/74
55%
SApM4.55
47/74
4.36
62/74
6.03
KD Avg0.31
37/74
0.39
45/74
0.21
TD/152.24
19/74
1.55
32/74
1.45
TD Acc46% (43 of 93)
Not available
—
Not available
54% (7 of 13)
TD Def72%
23/74
60.1%
53/74
55%
Sub/150.21
45/74
0.53
45/74
0.21
Avg Fight Time10:41
Not available
—
Not available
12:05
Statistical Verdict
Kamaka owns the striking inputs — 12th in volume and 8th in accuracy of 74 — but ranks 62nd in strikes absorbed. Fili owns takedown pace (19th) and takedown defence (23rd), while his 38% accuracy ranks 65th. Phase decides which column the judges weigh.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

Control Time per Round (sec)

Andre Fili

  • His best striking round is the first: 19.3 landed per R1, then 16–17.
  • Control grows as fights go on — 23 seconds in R1, 49 in R2, 63 in R3.
  • Seven of his 27 UFC fights ended in the first round, win or lose.

Kai Kamaka III

  • Volume holds flat: 26–27 landed in every round at 57–61%.
  • Works the body — 41% of his UFC strikes land there.
  • His R3 control jumps to 136 seconds and his clinch share to 26%.
Critical Insight
Kamaka's output does not fade, while Fili's peaks in R1 and his control builds late. If Kamaka keeps distance his round totals beat Fili's; if Fili connects takedowns, control flips the later rounds.

Strike targeting

Andre

Head
73%
Body
15%
Legs
12%

Kai

Head
43%
Body
41%
Legs
16%

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

AndreKai
88%Distance84%
5%Clinch13%
7%Ground3%

Share of significant strikes landed at distance, in the clinch and on the ground across each fighter's UFC rounds, weighted by strike volume.

04

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much
Open SpaceKai owns it

5.49 SLpM at 59%; Fili lands 38% (65th of 74)

Pocket / ExchangesKai owns it

Fili's reach vs Kamaka's volume; Fili has absorbed seven UFC knockdowns

ClinchAndre owns it

2.24 TD/15 at 46%; Kamaka has conceded 9 of 20 attempts

GroundAndre owns it

Top control scoring — Fili averages 1:36 of control per UFC fight

Path to Victory

Andre Fili

Mix striking with level changes, punish overextended combinations and use top-position offence to break Kamaka's rhythm.

Why they win
01
Takedown rate

2.24 TD/15 at 46% vs 1.45 — 19th in a 74-fighter pool.

02
Takedown defence

72% vs 55% — Kamaka must win striking or pay on entries.

03
Reach

+5 inches — jab and intercept tools.

04
Experience

Twenty-seven UFC bouts since 2013 — knows when to change phases.

05
Absorption edge

4.55 SApM vs 6.03 — Kamaka ranks 62nd of 74 in strikes absorbed.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Primary route

    Mix striking with level changes and top offence.

  2. 2
    Avoid volume traps

    Do not match 5.49 SLpM — change phases after combinations.

  3. 3
    Use reach

    Jab-intercept into entries.

Path to Victory

Kai Kamaka III

Force Fili to defend successive combinations, remain balanced on exits and prevent a lost striking exchange from becoming a lost grappling sequence.

Why they win
01
Volume

5.49 SLpM, 12th in the pool — can win optics standing.

02
Accuracy

59% vs 38% — 8th vs 65th in the division pool.

03
Youth

Five years younger — pace pressure in minute nine.

04
Pace

Output holds at 26–27 landed per round through R3.

05
KO path

16-point model KO bucket — Fili has been stopped by strikes three times since 2022.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Primary route

    Force successive combinations and stay balanced on exits.

  2. 2
    Sprawl discipline

    55% TDDef must improve against Fili's chains.

  3. 3
    Body work

    41% of his strikes go to the body — tax the 36-year-old's pace.

Danger Zone

How Andre Fili loses

  • Kamaka's volume wins all three rounds standing — the primary reversal.

  • Oliveira-style stoppage if Fili trades without level changes — seven UFC knockdowns absorbed.

  • Delgado repeat — a split decision lost when the wrestling stalls.

Danger Zone

How Kai Kamaka III loses

  • Takedowns accumulate — Fili's 32-point decision bucket.

  • 6.03 SApM compounds into a late stoppage or lost cards.

  • Pearce repeat — out-wrestled and stopped in R2 (Nov 2020).

Matchup interpretation

The phase that changes the comparison

Kamaka's output is higher, but so is his strike absorption. Fili's greater takedown rate gives him a way to interrupt prolonged exchanges instead of matching volume alone.

Counterargument

What would change the selection

Kamaka's higher output can win rounds if Fili cannot make wrestling a meaningful part of them; career experience alone does not favour Fili.

54
model win % for Fili
3 rounds

Distance and repeatability

The cleaner route depends on how freely Kamaka can sustain combinations. Fili's wrestling is a tactical option, not a guarantee.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

05

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things
1

Andre Fili's 2.24 TD/15 and 72% TDDef versus Kai Kamaka's 5.49 SLpM and 6.03 SApM — phase change versus volume over three rounds.

2

Model: Fili 54% / Kamaka 46%, conviction 4/10. Fair −117 / +117.

3

Primary reversal: Kamaka sustains combination volume without paying on counters and forces a pure striking contest.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Fili Decision — 32%Fili KO/TKO — 8%Fili Submission — 14%Kamaka KO/TKO — 16%Kamaka Decision — 22%Kamaka Submission — 8%

Each square = 1 model percentage point. Andre Fili gold · Kai Kamaka III orange · color opacity: 100% = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Volume vs takedowns

5.49 SLpM against 2.24 TD/15 defines the fork.

Absorption

6.03 SApM for Kamaka, seven UFC knockdowns absorbed for Fili — a live KO path for both sides.

Fili age

36 on a two-fight skid — caps conviction.

Kamaka UFC experience

Six UFC bouts — less proof against sustained wrestling pressure.

Phase connection

Fili must make takedowns scoring sequences, not stalls.

Fight Scripts

0%
of simulations

The Swanson Repeat

Fili mixes takedowns and wins R2–R3 on control — the modal decision.

Scripted outcomes for Andre Fili vs Kai Kamaka III — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Andre Fili win probability
0%
8%
32%
14%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Eight points — 10 career KO/TKO wins and 0.31 KD/15.

  • Thirty-two points — largest Fili bucket via phase changes.

  • Fourteen points — three career submissions; a scramble or front-headlock path off his takedowns.

Kai Kamaka III win probability
0%
16%
22%
8%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Sixteen points — volume, and Fili's four stoppage losses by strikes in the UFC.

  • Twenty-two points — Hope and Kelley decision paths.

  • Eight points — tail outcome; one career submission.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round
R1
Kai
R2
Even
R3
Andre
29-28 Fili
Lost R1 volume, won the later rounds on phase changes
Modal Fili path
30-27 Kamaka
Volume every round without takedown damage
Primary reversal card
29-28 Kamaka
Takes R1–R2 on output, drops R3 to control
Inside the 22% decision bucket

Model and price

Andre Fili

Freshness unverified
Model win probability
54%
Fair odds
-117
Reference quote
-150 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds
1.85
Estimated EV
-10.0%
Edge vs no-vig market
-3.8 pp

Kai Kamaka III

Freshness unverified
Model win probability
46%
Fair odds
+117
Reference quote
+128 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds
2.17
Estimated EV
+4.9%
Edge vs no-vig market
+3.8 pp

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Andre Fili

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 1.86 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Kai Kamaka III

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 2.18 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Analyst price notes

Written against the prices of October 5.

Kamaka at plus money aligns with 46% and the volume path. BetOnline +128 is a little longer than the model's +117. Fili −150 is shorter than −140, so the favourite exceeds the model lean.

Conviction
0
4/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Lean Fili on 2.24 TD/15, 72% TDDef, and phase changes against Kamaka's 5.49 SLpM and 6.03 SApM — capped because Kamaka can win optics if takedowns never score. Lean: Andre Fili.

What backs the lean

  • 2.24 TD/15 and 72% TDDef.

  • Lower absorption than Kamaka (4.55 vs 6.03).

  • Reach and UFC experience edge.

  • Swanson and Rodriguez decision proofs.

What limits it

  • Kamaka 5.49 SLpM and 59% accuracy.

  • Fili 36 on a two-fight 2026 skid.

  • Seven UFC knockdowns absorbed; Oliveira stopped him in June.

  • Kamaka's volume can win without grappling.

Final Assessment

Andre Fili vs Kai Kamaka III is a featherweight main-card phase fight. Kamaka brings 5.49 significant strikes per minute at 59% accuracy but absorbs 6.03; Fili lands less volume (3.89 SLpM) yet averages 2.24 takedowns per fifteen with 72% takedown defence and twenty-seven UFC bouts of mixed-phase experience.

The model leans Fili 54% to Kamaka 46% with conviction 4/10. Method shares: Fili 8 KO / 32 decision / 14 submission; Kamaka 16 KO / 22 decision / 8 submission. Fair moneyline Fili −117 and Kamaka +117.

Take Fili narrowly if you trust wrestling to interrupt volume in the smaller APEX cage; respect Kamaka's combination pace and 6.03 SApM at plus money. The fight is whether takedowns become scoring sequences or Kamaka keeps it a pure striking contest.

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