Andre Fili vs Kai Kamaka III – UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan Fight Analytics & Prediction

MAIN CARD · FEATHERWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan

Andre Fili

25W14L

Veteran Volume Wrestler

…

Kai Kamaka III

18W8L1D

High-Accuracy Boxer

…

A twenty-one-point accuracy gap and three minutes of third-round control, in the smallest cage in the promotion

FeatherweightUFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada, United StatesOctober 10, 2026UFC Apex — 25ft cage

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

The widest accuracy gap on this card, and it sits in a venue designed to make it worse for the man on the wrong side of it. Kai Kamaka III lands 59% of his significant strikes — eleven points above the featherweight baseline — and Andre Fili lands 38%, ten points below it. Kamaka's accuracy rises every round (56.4%, 56.4%, 59.3%) while Fili's falls (38.0%, 39.2%, 35.4%), and Kamaka's third-round control time of 178 seconds is nearly the entire round. Fili's counter-argument is real: five inches of reach, 84-89% of his offence landing at distance in every frame, 2.24 takedowns per fifteen minutes against a 55% sprawl, and fifty-eight scored Octagon rounds against eleven. But this is the UFC Apex, whose 25-foot cage removes exactly the retreat lines a five-inch reach advantage depends on. Both men were stopped in their most recent fight — Fili by Vinicius Oliveira in June 2026, Kamaka by Luke Riley a month later — so neither arrives with momentum, and both chins carry a new question. Model: Kamaka 60% / Fili 40%, conviction 5/10.

Andre Fili

Attribute

Kai Kamaka III

Age

5'11" (71")+4" Fili

Height

5'7" (67")

74"+5" Fili

Reach

69"

Long-limbed volume striker with a wrestling base

Fighting Style

Boxing — the highest accuracy in the bout

Federal Way, Washington, United States

Origin

Honolulu, Hawaii, United States

38%

Striking Accuracy

21-point gap59%

25 scored bouts, 58 rounds

UFC Experience

5 scored bouts, 11 rounds

1-3 in his last four, stopped in his last

Recent Form

1-1 in his last two, stopped in his last

Four inches of height and five of reach to Fili, which is the largest frame gap on the main card and the entire basis of his gameplan — he lands 84.0%, 88.9% and 88.4% of his offence at distance across the three rounds. The complication is where the fight is happening. Kamaka is the shorter, thicker fighter with 54% takedown accuracy and a clinch share that reaches 28.1% by the third round, and a 25-foot cage gives him five fewer feet to cover in every direction. Length is a real asset here and it is being asked to work in the least favourable room the promotion owns.

Venue Factor
The UFC Apex uses a 25-foot cage rather than the 30-foot event Octagon — five fewer feet of retreat in every direction, which taxes range fighters and rewards anyone who wants a back against the fence. For this bout specifically, it converts Fili's largest advantage into his hardest problem: 178 seconds of Kamaka control time in an average third round is a fence statistic, and the fence is closer here.

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Andre Fili

Pro Record

25-14-0

UFC Record

13-13 across 25 scored Octagon bouts

Streak

One win in his last four

Finish Rate

52% (13 of 25 wins) — 10 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 12 decisions

Avg Fight Time

10:41 in the UFC

Chin · Worn — stopped three timesSOS · Thirteen years of UFC featherweightsVeteran volume wrestler

Thirteen years and twenty-six Octagon appearances into a career that has settled into a hard, honest plateau. Fili is 13-13 in the UFC with twenty-five scored bouts and fifty-eight rounds of round-by-round data — one of the deepest samples on this card. The recent stretch is the problem: a split-decision win over Cub Swanson at UFC 303 in June 2024, then a first-round submission loss to Melquizael Costa, a split decision over Christian Rodriguez, a split-decision loss to Jose Miguel Delgado, and a second-round TKO loss to Vinicius Oliveira in June 2026. That is one win in four. His numbers explain the plateau precisely: 38% striking accuracy against a ~48% featherweight baseline, 4.55 significant strikes absorbed per minute, and output falling from 19.2 in the first round to 16.7 in the third. What he retains is length — five inches of reach — and 2.24 takedowns per fifteen minutes.

Kai Kamaka III

Pro Record

18-8-1

UFC Record

2-2-1 across four scored Octagon bouts

Streak

Coming off a first-round knockout loss to Luke Riley

Finish Rate

22% (4 of 18 wins) — 3 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 14 decisions

Avg Fight Time

12:05 in the UFC

Chin · Tested — stopped once in 2026SOS · Regional champion level, rebuilt outside the UFCHigh-accuracy boxer

A Hawaiian boxer who left the UFC, rebuilt on the regional circuit and came back sharper than he left. Kamaka went 2-2-1 in his first Octagon run, spent 2025 on Tuff-N-Uff cards — a unanimous decision over Sitik Muduev, a third-round knockout of Michel Lima, a five-round split-decision loss to Diego Brandao — and returned with a split decision over Dakota Hope in April 2026 before Luke Riley knocked him out in the first round at UFC 329 in July. His rate line is the story: 59% striking accuracy is the highest figure in this bout by twenty-one points, and his round-by-round accuracy actually climbs, 56.4% to 56.4% to 59.3%. His third-round control time of 178 seconds — nearly the whole round — is the second-highest single control figure on this card.

Andre Fili

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Knockdown Exchange

KD dealt vs absorbed

Kai Kamaka III

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Andre Filisignature weapons

Five Inches of Reach74 inches against 69, with 84-89% of his offence landing at distance in every round — the largest frame edge in this bout

×25

The Takedown Threat2.24 takedowns per fifteen minutes at 25% accuracy against a 55% takedown defence, with control time rising to 65 seconds by the third

×3

Kai Kamaka IIIsignature weapons

59% AccuracyThe highest striking accuracy in this bout by twenty-one points, and it rises every round — 56.4%, 56.4%, 59.3%

×18

The Third-Round Clamp178 seconds of control in an average third round — nearly the entire round — and 28.1% of his offence landing in the clinch

×4

Andre Fili

Vinicius Oliveira

TKO — punches and elbows

RR2 (4:56)

UFC FN 279 — Jun 20, 2026

Jose Miguel Delgado

Decision — Split

RR3

UFC FN 269 — Mar 14, 2026

Christian Rodriguez

Decision — Split

RR3

UFC on ESPN 72 — Aug 9, 2025

Melquizael Costa

Submission — Guillotine

RR1 (4:30)

UFC FN 252 — Feb 22, 2025

Cub Swanson

Decision — Split

RR3

UFC 303 — Jun 29, 2024

Pattern

One win in four, and the shape is a veteran being edged rather than beaten: two split decisions and a first-round guillotine in that stretch, plus the TKO loss to Vinicius Oliveira in June 2026. The Cub Swanson split decision at UFC 303 remains the best recent line on his record. At 36, with fifty-eight scored Octagon rounds behind him, he is still competitive with almost everyone and no longer clearly better than anyone.

Kai Kamaka III

Luke Riley

KO/TKO

RR1 (3:03)

UFC 329 — Jul 11, 2026

Dakota Hope

Decision — Split

RR3

UFC FN: Moicano vs. Duncan — Apr 4, 2026

Michel Lima

KO/TKO

RR3 (4:48)

Tuff-N-Uff 151 — Jan 22, 2026

Diego Brandao

Decision — Split

RR5

Tuff-N-Uff 149 — Oct 25, 2025

Sitik Muduev

Decision — Unanimous

RR3

Tuff-N-Uff 145 — Jun 29, 2025

Pattern

Two wins and a knockout loss in his last three, with the wins bracketing a rebuild that happened mostly outside the UFC. The Diego Brandao five-round split decision in October 2025 is the most useful line — it is the only twenty-five-minute fight either man has contested, and he lost it narrowly. The Luke Riley knockout in July 2026 is the newest and least comfortable.

Andre Fili

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Kai Kamaka III

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Critical Insight
Two decision-heavy charts and both close exactly — Fili 10 knockouts, 3 submissions and 12 decisions in 25 wins; Kamaka 3, 1 and 14 in 18. Seventy-eight percent of everything Kamaka has won came on the scorecards, the highest decision share of any fighter at UFC Vegas 122, and it is not a weakness so much as an identity: he wins by landing at 59% and holding people for three minutes of a third round. Fili's chart is more balanced but his finishing is historical — eight of his thirteen finishes came in Round 1 and most of them are years old. Between them these two have twenty-six decision wins, which is why the combined finish probability below is the lowest on the card.

Common Opponents

Opponent	Andre	Kai
Jose Miguel Delgado (level proxy)	L· Split decision (Mar 2026)	—never faced
Delgado headlines Noche UFC against Jean Silva four weeks before this card; Fili lost to him on a split
Diego Brandao (level proxy)	—never faced in the UFC era	L· Five-round split decision (Tuff-N-Uff, Oct 2025)
Kamaka's regional title run included a full twenty-five-minute fight — the only championship-distance evidence in this bout
Cub Swanson (level proxy)	W· Split decision (UFC 303, Jun 2024)	—never faced
Fili's best recent win, and the last time he beat a name most fans recognise

Andre

0.0

Kai

Seven points, mapping closely onto the 60/40 line. The gauges and the model agree here, which is not always the case on this card.

Metric	Andre	Kai
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	10:41 (UFC)	12:05 (UFC)
Pace Tier	3.89 SLpM at 38% accuracy	5.49 SLpM at 59% accuracy
R3/R1 OutputR3/R1 OutputThird-round output as % of first-round output. Above 100% = builds into the fight; below = fades.	16.7 / 19.2 — down 13%	21.3 / 28.5 — down 25%, at 59.3% accuracy
R3 Control Time	65 seconds	178 seconds
Scored UFC Rounds	58	11

Archetype Base Rate

Veteran Volume Wrestler 40%60% High-Accuracy Boxer

No archetype base-rate row exists for this pairing · No historical archetype rate is applied. The 60/40 rests on a twenty-one-point accuracy gap that widens every round, 178 seconds of third-round control against a 55% takedown defence, and a 25-foot cage that neutralises the favourite's only structural disadvantage. It is capped by five inches of reach, 2.24 takedowns per fifteen minutes at a 72% sprawl, fifty-eight scored Octagon rounds against eleven, and the fact that Kamaka was knocked out in the first round eleven weeks before this fight.

Andre FiliKai Kamaka III

Featherweight

· 47 fighters

Stat	Andre	Andre rank	Div avg	Kai rank	Kai
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	3.89	—	~4.57	—	5.49
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	38%	—	~48%	—	59%
Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit.	50%	—	~54%	—	55%
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	4.55	—	~4.08	—	6.03
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	2.24	—	~1.58	—	1.45
TD Acc	25%	—	~40%	—	54%
TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed.	72%	—	~64%	—	55%
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	0.21	—	~0.52	—	0.21
Career Decisions	12 of 25 wins	—	—	—	14 of 18 wins
Reach	74"	—	~71"	—	69"
Scored UFC Rounds	58	—	—	—	11

Statistical Verdict
Kamaka is eleven points above the featherweight baseline on accuracy, above it on output and takedown conversion, and well below it on damage absorbed at 6.03 per minute — the worst figure in this bout. Fili is ten points under baseline on accuracy, above it on takedown volume and eight points above on takedown defence. The two rows that decide the fight sit at opposite ends of the table: a twenty-one-point accuracy gap at the top, and fifty-eight scored Octagon rounds against eleven at the bottom. One man is far more efficient and the other has seen far more.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

Control Time per Round (sec)

Andre Fili

Output falls across the fight — 19.2, 15.9, 16.7 landed — and accuracy falls with it, from 38.0% to 35.4%. He is a volume fighter whose volume is no longer high.
A pure distance striker: 84.0%, 88.9% and 88.4% of his offence lands at range across the three rounds, with clinch work never above 6.7%.
Control time rises from 24 to 65 seconds and his head share climbs from 72.6% to 77.7% — the wrestling arrives late and it arrives mostly as position, not damage.
Fifty-eight scored rounds across twenty-five Octagon bouts, one of the deepest samples on this card.

Kai Kamaka III

The highest accuracy line in this bout and it never dips: 56.4%, 56.4%, 59.3% across three rounds, peaking in the third.
178 seconds of control in an average third round — nearly the whole round — with clinch share jumping to 28.1% and ground share falling to zero. He holds people upright against the fence rather than taking them down.
Output falls from 28.5 in the first to 21.3 in the third, which is a 25% decline, but the accuracy climbing alongside it means the work gets cleaner as it gets quieter.
His rows rest on three or four scored rounds apiece. The 178-second figure is the single least-sampled headline number on this page.

Critical Insight
Two declining output curves where only one of them gets cleaner. Fili falls from 19.2 to 16.7 landed with accuracy dropping to 35.4%; Kamaka falls from 28.5 to 21.3 while accuracy climbs to 59.3% and control time reaches 178 seconds. That combination — fewer strikes, better strikes, and three minutes of a round spent controlling somebody — is precisely how fourteen of Kamaka's eighteen career wins ended. Fili's counter is that he out-controls nobody and out-reaches everybody, and the 25-foot Apex cage is the worst possible venue for that trade.

Strike Targeting (career avg)

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Range Profile — where the minutes go

AndreKai

87%Distance83%

6%Clinch13%

7%Ground4%

Share of significant-strike volume by range from UFC career data. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much

Open SpaceAndre owns it

Five inches of reach and 84-89% distance work — the only phase Fili leads, and the Apex cage shrinks it

Pocket / ExchangesKai owns it

59% accuracy against 38%, with a 0.25 second-round knockdown average against a man stopped three times

ClinchKai owns it

28.1% of Kamaka's third-round offence lands in the clinch, with 178 seconds of control against a 55% takedown defence

GroundAndre owns it

72% takedown defence against 55%, and identical 0.21 submission attempts per fifteen — neither man finishes here

Path to Victory

Andre Fili

Keep it at 74 inches for fifteen minutes — which means keeping it off the fence in the smallest cage the promotion uses.

Why they win

Five inches of reach and four of height

The largest frame gap on the main card, with 84-89% of his offence landing at distance in every round.

72% takedown defence against 55%

Seventeen points better, against a man who converts 54% of the takedowns he does attempt.

2.24 takedowns per fifteen minutes

Against a 55% sprawl — the one offensive column where he leads outright.

Fifty-eight scored Octagon rounds

Against eleven. Twenty-five UFC bouts against four, and twelve career decision wins.

Ten career knockouts

Against three, with a 0.20 first-round knockdown average aimed at a man knocked out eleven weeks ago.

Lower damage absorbed

4.55 significant strikes per minute against 6.03 — the one defensive column he owns.

The gameplan

1
Fight at 74 inches and keep the centre
In a 25-foot cage the man who controls the middle controls the space. Circling to the fence is how this fight is lost.
2
Use the takedown as a deterrent
2.24 attempts per fifteen against a 55% sprawl — even unsuccessful entries reset the clinch Kamaka wants.
3
Attack early
His knockdown average of 0.20 lands in the first round, and Kamaka was knocked out in a first round eleven weeks ago.
4
Break the clinch immediately
178 seconds of third-round control is the single number that decides this fight. Every second there is a second lost.
5
Raise the accuracy, not the volume
At 38% he cannot out-throw a 59% striker. Fewer, cleaner shots is the only version of this that scores.
6
Contingency — if Plan A fails
If he is behind after two rounds, the wrestling is the fallback — 2.24 attempts per fifteen against 55% is his best remaining tool.

Path to Victory

Kai Kamaka III

Land at 59% and clamp the third round. Fourteen of his eighteen wins ended exactly there.

Why they win

Twenty-one points of striking accuracy

59% against 38%, rising every round to 59.3% while his opponent's falls to 35.4%.

178 seconds of third-round control

Nearly the entire round, with 28.1% of his offence landing in the clinch, in a 25-foot cage.

Higher output in every round

28.5 to 19.2, 23.0 to 15.9, 21.3 to 16.7 significant strikes landed.

54% takedown accuracy against 25%

More than double the conversion rate, which matters more than raw attempt volume.

Five years younger

31 against 36, with fourteen fewer professional fights of mileage.

Championship-distance experience

A five-round split decision against Diego Brandao in October 2025 — the only twenty-five-minute fight either man has had.

The gameplan

1
Close the distance behind the jab
He out-lands Fili in every round already. Five inches is a problem to be walked through, not avoided.
2
Use the cage
The Apex is 25 feet and his third-round control time is 178 seconds. Those two facts are the same fact.
3
Keep the accuracy above 55%
It is the number that wins him rounds and it has never dropped below 56.4% in a scored round.
4
Defend the level change
Fili attempts 2.24 takedowns per fifteen minutes and Kamaka defends 55%. It is the softest number on his sheet.
5
Be careful in the first
Fili's knockdown average peaks at 0.20 there and Kamaka is eleven weeks removed from a first-round knockout loss.
6
Contingency — if Plan A fails
If he cannot get inside, the takedown at 54% accuracy is the alternative route to the control time his fights are decided by.

Danger Zone

How Andre Fili loses

He is out-landed by nine strikes in the first round and never closes the gap, losing a clear decision on accuracy alone.
The 25-foot cage puts his back on the fence and he spends three minutes of the third round being held there.
He is stopped for the second consecutive fight by a 59%-accuracy boxer with a 0.25 second-round knockdown average.

Danger Zone

How Kai Kamaka III loses

He cannot cover five inches, spends fifteen minutes reaching, and gives away rounds to a longer man's jab.
His 6.03 significant strikes absorbed per minute meets a 0.20 first-round knockdown average eleven weeks after being knocked out.
The takedown attempts run into 72% defence and the third-round clamp never materialises.

The widest gap on this card

Twenty-One Points of Accuracy

Kai Kamaka III lands 59% of his significant strikes and Andre Fili lands 38% — a twenty-one-point differential, the largest in any bout at UFC Vegas 122. Kamaka is eleven points above the featherweight baseline and Fili is ten below it, and Kamaka's figure rises every round while Fili's falls.

59% v 38%

striking accuracy

Kamaka's third round

A Hundred and Seventy-Eight Seconds

In an average third round Kamaka holds 178 seconds of control — nearly the entire round — with 28.1% of his offence landing in the clinch. Against a 25-foot Apex cage and a fighter whose reach advantage depends on space, that is the single most exploitable pattern in this fight.

178s

Kamaka control time, average R3

The shared caveat

Both Men Were Stopped in Their Last Fight

Vinicius Oliveira stopped Andre Fili with punches and elbows at 4:56 of the second round in June 2026; Luke Riley knocked out Kai Kamaka III at 3:03 of the first round in July. Neither man arrives with momentum, and both chins now carry a fresh question mark.

Kamaka's shape

Fourteen Decisions in Eighteen Wins

Seventy-eight percent of everything Kai Kamaka III has won came on the scorecards — the highest decision share of any fighter on this card. He does not finish people; he out-points them at 59% accuracy and holds them down for three minutes of a third round. Against a man who has been to the cards twelve times himself, that is the likeliest shape of this fight.

78%

Kamaka's wins by decision

Fili's case and its problem

Five Inches, and a Small Cage

Andre Fili is five inches longer and lands 84-89% of his offence at distance in every round. He is also fighting in the 25-foot Apex cage, which removes the retreat lines a length advantage needs, against a boxer who converts 54% of his takedowns and controls 178 seconds of a third round.

25 ft

Apex cage — the promotion's smallest

The Five-Round Clock

Andre Fili danger windowKai Kamaka III danger windowNeutral / contested

R1 · 0:00–5:00Kamaka's loudest round

28.5 significant strikes landed at 56.4% — the highest single-round output either man produces — against Fili's 19.2 at 38.0%. Fili's knockdown average of 0.20 is his best figure and it lands here, but the volume gap is nine strikes.

Critical Insight
A one-directional clock that steepens as it goes. Kamaka out-lands Fili in all three rounds and the accuracy gap never closes — twenty-one points on the career line, and 56.4%, 56.4%, 59.3% against 38.0%, 39.2%, 35.4% round by round. Fili's best window is the second, where his control time rises to 53 seconds and the volume gap is narrowest at seven strikes. The third is where the fight is decided and it is not close on the evidence: 178 seconds of Kamaka control in a 25-foot cage against a man whose entire game requires space.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things

Kai Kamaka III lands 59% of his significant strikes to Andre Fili's 38% — the widest accuracy gap at UFC Vegas 122 — and his figure rises every round while Fili's falls.

Kamaka holds 178 seconds of control in an average third round, in a 25-foot Apex cage that removes the space Fili's five-inch reach advantage needs.

Model: Kamaka 60% / Fili 40%, conviction 5/10 — and 67 of 100 simulations end on the scorecards, the highest decision share on this card.

100 Simulated Fights

Kamaka Decision — 42%Fili Decision — 25%Kamaka KO/TKO — 15%Fili KO/TKO — 12%Kamaka Submission — 3%Fili Submission — 3%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. Andre Fili gold · Kai Kamaka III orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

The accuracy gap

59% against 38%, the widest at UFC Vegas 122, rising for one man and falling for the other.

Third-round control

178 seconds against 65, with 28.1% of Kamaka's offence landing in the clinch.

The 25-foot Apex cage

It removes the retreat lines Fili's five-inch reach advantage depends on.

Five inches of reach and 72% takedown defence

Fili's genuine case, and the reason this is not wider.

Both men were stopped in their last fight

Fili by Vinicius Oliveira in June 2026, Kamaka by Luke Riley in July. Neither chin is a settled question.

Sample asymmetry

Fifty-eight scored Octagon rounds against eleven, and twenty-five UFC bouts against four.

Fight Scripts

of simulations

The Accuracy Wins Rounds

Kamaka lands at 59% to Fili's 38%, out-throws him in every round, and clamps 178 seconds of control in the third. Fourteen of his eighteen career wins came exactly this way. In a 25-foot cage, Fili's five inches never buy the space they need.

Scripted outcomes for Andre Fili vs Kai Kamaka III — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Andre Fili win probability

12%

25%

KO/TKODECSUB

Ten career knockouts and a 0.20 first-round knockdown average, against a man knocked out in the first round of his most recent fight. Real, and front-loaded.
His largest bucket and the shape of twelve career decision wins — five inches of reach, 2.24 takedowns per fifteen, and fifty-eight scored Octagon rounds of experience.
Three career submissions and 0.21 attempts per fifteen minutes, identical to his opponent's rate. Neither man finishes on the mat.

Kai Kamaka III win probability

15%

42%

KO/TKODECSUB

Three career knockouts and a 0.25 second-round knockdown average, aimed at a 50% striking defence belonging to a fighter stopped three times. Modest, but not negligible.
By far the largest bucket on the page and the honest one: 78% of his career wins came on the cards, at 59% accuracy with 178 seconds of third-round control.
One career submission and 0.21 attempts per fifteen minutes. The control time is for scoring, not for finishing.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round

Kai

Andre

Kai

29-28 Kamaka

Fili steals the second on length; Kamaka takes the first on volume and the third on control

The most likely card, and the shape of fourteen career decision wins

30-27 Kamaka

The accuracy gap decides all three rounds in a small cage

Live — the Apex removes Fili's primary asset

29-28 Fili

Five inches of reach keeps it at distance for fifteen minutes

His path, and it requires him to reverse a 25% accuracy deficit

Moneyline

Andre Fili

Not posted

Kai Kamaka III

Not posted

No book has published a line for this bout at the time of writing. Converting our own probabilities gives fair prices of Kai Kamaka III -150 from 60% and Andre Fili +150 from 40% — model outputs, not quotes. Live prices appear in the hero above once a market opens.

Props: model vs market

Prop	Odds	Implied %	Model %	Fair	Edge	Verdict

Best Value
The fight going to a decision is the structural read at 67% — the highest of any bout on this card, and the direct consequence of twenty-six career decision wins between these two. Kamaka by decision at 42% is the single largest bucket on the page and the cleanest expression of a twenty-one-point accuracy gap. If the market prices Fili on name recognition and Octagon tenure rather than on one win in four, Kamaka is the value side of the moneyline.

Conviction

5/10

A solid, well-evidenced lean with two real caveats. The accuracy gap is the widest on the card and it widens as fights go on; the third-round control time is nearly a full round; and the venue is the smallest cage the promotion uses, which is the worst possible room for a five-inch reach advantage. Against that: Fili has fifty-eight scored Octagon rounds to eleven, defends 72% of takedowns to 55%, and Kamaka was knocked out in the first round eleven weeks before this fight. Five out of ten reflects a clear direction on a thin sample. Lean: Kai Kamaka III.

What backs the lean

A twenty-one-point striking accuracy gap — 59% against 38% — the widest at this event.
Higher output in all three rounds: 28.5, 23.0 and 21.3 against 19.2, 15.9 and 16.7.
178 seconds of control in an average third round, with 28.1% clinch share.
54% takedown accuracy against 25%, in the promotion's smallest cage.
Five years younger, with a five-round fight on his 2025 record.
Fili has been stopped three times and lost three of his last four.

What limits it

Five inches of reach and four inches of height to Fili.
72% takedown defence against 55% — a seventeen-point gap in the phase Kamaka needs.
Fifty-eight scored Octagon rounds against eleven, and twenty-five UFC bouts against four.
Kamaka was knocked out in the first round by Luke Riley eleven weeks before this fight.
He absorbs 6.03 significant strikes per minute, the worst figure in this bout.
Three of his last five fights were on regional cards rather than in the UFC.

Final Assessment

In roughly sixty of one hundred simulations Kai Kamaka III wins, and in forty-two of those he wins on the scorecards. The mechanism is the widest accuracy gap at UFC Vegas 122 applied for fifteen minutes — 59% against 38%, widening to 59.3% against 35.4% by the third round — plus 178 seconds of control in that same third round, in a 25-foot cage that gives Andre Fili nowhere to use five inches of reach.

In the other forty, the length holds. Fili lands 84-89% of his offence at distance in every round, defends 72% of takedowns against 55%, attempts 2.24 per fifteen minutes, and brings fifty-eight scored Octagon rounds against eleven. Twenty-five of those simulations are decisions and twelve are knockouts — his ten career stoppages against a man knocked out in the opening round eleven weeks ago.

Both fighters were finished in their most recent appearance, which makes the finishing buckets on both sides larger than the styles suggest and the whole projection less comfortable than a seven-point composite gap implies. On October 10 at the Apex — Kamaka 60% / Fili 40%, conviction 5/10, with two-thirds of the outcomes ending on the cards.

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