Niko Price vs Leon Shahbazyan – UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan Fight Analytics & Prediction

PRELIMS · WELTERWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan

Niko Price

16W11L

Volume brawler

Leon Shahbazyan

12W5L

Striker, submission threat

Shahbazyan's first-round chokes against Price's late-round volume

WelterweightMeta APEX, Las Vegas, NevadaOctober 10, 202625ft Octagon (Meta APEX)

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Price wants a sustained trading fight, pressing behind combinations against a man who was stopped in his UFC debut. Shahbazyan's answer is to use contact to change phases instead of lingering in the pocket, since nearly all of his pro wins came by submission. Price has been submitted twice during his current skid, so the first scramble matters as much as the first exchange.

Paths that change the fight

Niko PriceGet through the first round without giving up his neck or his back — the way Smith and Chiesa finished him — then drag Shahbazyan into the second and third, where Price's output climbs and Shahbazyan has almost never been.
Leon ShahbazyanFinish early: catch the neck in the opening minutes, the route to eleven submission wins, before Price's volume and Shahbazyan's own history of fading take over.

What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 2/10

Shahbazyan's Octagon rate line is one Contender Series fight plus 23 seconds.
Price has lost four straight and been finished in each of his last three.

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Niko Price

Freshness unverified

Model win probability: 50%
Fair odds: +100

Reference quote: +136 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 2.00

Leon Shahbazyan

Freshness unverified

Model win probability: 50%
Fair odds: +100

Reference quote: -160 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 2.00

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Sources and data limitations

Career records, UFC fight logs, round-by-round figures and rate lines run through each man's most recent bout (March 2026 for Price, June 2026 for Shahbazyan). Shahbazyan's Octagon rate line covers 10:39 — 10:16 of it from his 2019 Contender Series bout against Phil Rowe and 23 seconds from his UFC debut. Composite scores, probabilities and fair prices are MMA Analytics model outputs.

Model methodology

Read the evidence Inspect prices and assumptions

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Niko Price returns from a brief retirement at 37 on a four-fight skid, and Leon Shahbazyan was knocked out almost as soon as his UFC debut began. Both live at the extremes: Shahbazyan finishes early or gets hurt, while Price starts slowly and grows busier as the minutes pile up. The question is whether this ends before Price finds his rhythm, because Shahbazyan has rarely seen a second round. The swing is Shahbazyan's gas tank, since the only time he went long against a UFC-calibre opponent, he faded and was stopped.

Niko Price

Attribute

Leon Shahbazyan

Age

7-year gap30

6'0"

Height

+4" Shahbazyan6'4"

76"

Reach

+1" Shahbazyan77"

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

FightMe Combat Sports

Team

Freestyle MMA

16-11-0 (2 NC)

Pro Record

12-5-0

8-11, 2 NC (21 bouts)

UFC Record

0-1 (1 bout)

Octagon Bouts

1 (+1 Contender Series)

196 (submission loss)

Days Since Last Fight

112 (KO loss)

Volume brawler

Fighting Style

Guillotine specialist

Shahbazyan is the bigger man — four inches taller at 6'4" and an inch longer in reach — and seven years younger. Price has the experience: 21 UFC bouts and more than 170 minutes in the Octagon, against Shahbazyan's single 23-second UFC appearance and one Contender Series fight.

Venue Factor
The Meta APEX's 25-foot Octagon shortens the entry for Shahbazyan, whose wins mostly come from catching a neck in the opening minutes. It also suits Price, who wants a close-range brawl — but in a tight cage his defence gets tested as often as his opponent's, and Price has been finished inside two rounds in each of his last three fights.

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Niko Price

Pro Record

16-11-0 (2 NC)

UFC Record

8-11, 2 NC across 21 bouts since December 2016

Streak

Four straight losses — submitted by Michael Chiesa in 1:03 (Mar 2026), finished in each of the last three

Finish Rate

81% (13 of 16 wins) — 10 KO/TKO, 3 submissions

Avg Fight Time

8:07

Chin · Vulnerable — 6 KO/TKO losses and 5 UFC knockdowns absorbedSOS · VeteranVolume brawler

Price came to the UFC 8-0 out of Florida's Fight Time promotion in December 2016 and built his name on chaos: six of his eight UFC wins were finishes, including the upside-down hammerfists that knocked out Randy Brown from his back in 2018 — the first knockout of its kind in UFC history. He has also been hard to protect. Across 21 UFC bouts he lands 5.11 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 5.57, and he has been stopped nine times, three of them in his last three fights: Jacobe Smith by rear-naked choke, Nikolay Veretennikov by strikes in 1:42, and Michael Chiesa by rear-naked choke in 1:03. Price took his gloves off after the Chiesa loss in March and returns six months later. His last win was a unanimous decision over Alex Morono in June 2024.

Leon Shahbazyan

Pro Record

12-5-0

UFC Record

0-1 — knocked out in 23 seconds by Levan Chokheli on his debut (Jun 20, 2026)

Streak

One loss — Chokheli (Jun 2026), after four straight submission wins

Finish Rate

100% (12 of 12 wins) — 11 submissions, 1 KO

Avg Fight Time

0:23 in the UFC · 5:20 including his Contender Series bout

Chin · Vulnerable — all five pro losses by KO/TKO, four of them in Round 1SOS · Regional / Contender SeriesGuillotine specialist

Shahbazyan turned pro in 2016 and has finished all twelve of his wins: one knockout in his second pro fight and eleven submissions — six guillotines — with seven of the twelve inside the first minute. His big chance came on the 2019 Contender Series against Phil Rowe: he dropped Rowe with a right uppercut in the first round, then faded and was stopped 16 seconds into the third, and Rowe took the contract. He fought only three times over the next five years — a first-round knockout loss to Moses Murrietta in August 2021, a 19-second rear-naked choke of Marcus Hardaway that October, and a first-round knockout loss to Ryan Loder in May 2023 — then rebuilt on Tuff-N-Uff with four straight submission wins in 13 months before the UFC signed him. The debut lasted 23 seconds: Levan Chokheli dropped and stopped him. All five of his losses have come by knockout.

Niko Price

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Knockdown Exchange

Knockdowns dealt vs absorbed.

Leon Shahbazyan

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Niko Pricesignature weapons

Punches (KO/TKO)Nine of his ten knockouts — Alan Jouban, Tim Means and James Vick in Round 1 in the UFC

×9

Hammerfists Off His BackRandy Brown at 1:09 of Round 2, July 2018 — the first knockout of its kind in UFC history, and a Performance of the Night

×1

SubmissionsArm-triangle (Brandon Thatch, UFC 207), rear-naked choke (George Sullivan, 2018) and an armbar on his pro debut

×3

Third-Round Volume38.7 significant strikes landed per UFC third round — 150 against Donald Cerrone over three rounds

×0

Leon Shahbazyansignature weapons

Guillotine ChokeThree of his last four wins — Aireon Tavarres, Aaron Phillips (0:47) and Gláucio Eliziário (0:43)

×6

Rear-Naked ChokeIncluding Marcus Hardaway in 19 seconds, 2021

×3

ArmbarRobert Hale at 3:34 of Round 1, Tuff-N-Uff 152, March 2026

×1

First-Minute FinishesSeven of his twelve wins ended inside 60 seconds, the fastest in 15

×7

Niko Price

Michael Chiesa

Submission — Rear-naked choke

Opponent context: veteran

R1 (1:03)

UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer, Seattle — Mar 28, 2026

Nikolay Veretennikov

KO/TKO — Strikes

Opponent context: veteran

R1 (1:42)

UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira — Feb 7, 2026

Jacobe Smith

Submission — Rear-naked choke

Opponent context: prospect

R2 (4:03)

UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira — Jun 28, 2025

Themba Gorimbo

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: veteran

R3 (5:00)

UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira — Oct 12, 2024

Alex Morono

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: veteran

R3 (5:00)

UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier — Jun 1, 2024

Pattern

Four straight losses, and the way he loses has changed. Gorimbo out-pointed him; then Smith, Veretennikov and Chiesa finished him at 4:03 of Round 2, 1:42 of Round 1 and 1:03 of Round 1. Price absorbs 19.9 significant strikes per UFC first round and is at his best late — 38.7 landed per third round — but his last three fights never got there.

Leon Shahbazyan

Levan Chokheli

KO/TKO — Knockdown, then strikes

Opponent context: prospect

R1 (0:23)

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi — Jun 20, 2026

Robert Hale

Submission — Armbar

R1 (3:34)

Tuff-N-Uff 152 — Mar 2026

Gláucio Eliziário

Submission — Guillotine

R1 (0:43)

Tuff-N-Uff 148 — Sep 2025

Aaron Phillips

Submission — Guillotine

R1 (0:47)

Tuff-N-Uff 146 — Jul 2025

Aireon Tavarres

Submission — Guillotine

R1 (4:40)

Tuff-N-Uff 141 — Feb 2025

Pattern

Four straight first-round submissions on the regional scene, three of them guillotines and two inside 50 seconds, then a 23-second knockout loss on his UFC debut. The whole career runs the same way: he either finishes early or gets hurt, and he has been past the first round only twice.

Niko Price

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Leon Shahbazyan

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Critical Insight
Both charts are scoped to career wins. Price's 16: ten knockouts, three submissions and three decisions, with ten wins in Round 1 and three in Round 2 — he has never finished anyone in Round 3. Shahbazyan's 12: eleven submissions and one knockout, eleven in Round 1 and one 26 seconds into Round 3. Neither man has won late by finish; Price at least has the minutes, with seven UFC fights that reached a third round.

Common Opponents

Opponent	Niko	Leon
Phil Rowe	L· TKO R3 3:26 — UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland, Dec 2022	L· TKO R3 0:16 — Contender Series, Aug 2019
Both men were stopped by Rowe in Round 3. Shahbazyan dropped him with an uppercut in Round 1 before fading; Price out-landed him 110–63 over the fight and was still finished late.

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and UFC experience before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

SLpM 25% · StrAcc 30% · StrDef 30% · SApM 15%

Niko

Leonfew UFC fights

Price by 3. Shahbazyan's line is essentially one Contender Series fight: 6.10 landed per minute at 52%, but 33% defence and 8.45 absorbed. Price lands 5.11 at 43% with 48% defence and absorbs 5.57 — busier than most welterweights and hit more than almost all of them (48th of 54 in strikes absorbed).

Grappling

TD/15 25% · TDAcc 25% · TDDef 30% · Sub/15 20%

Niko

Leonfew UFC fights

Price by 18, but the gauge measures only Octagon activity: Shahbazyan landed one takedown and attempted no submissions in 10:39 there. His eleven submission wins came on the regional scene, and Price has been submitted three times in the UFC, twice in his last three fights.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

Niko

0.0

Leonfew UFC fights

Price by 10.5 on paper — a gap built mostly on the grappling gauge, which does not see Shahbazyan's submission game.

Metric	Niko	Leon
Octagon Time	170:17 (21 UFC bouts)	10:39 (UFC + Contender Series)few UFC fights
First-Round Wins	10 of 16	11 of 12
KO/TKO Losses	6	5 (all his losses)
UFC Submission Losses	3 (2 in his last 3)	0
Round 3 Output (UFC)	38.7 landed per round	—
Days Since Last Fight	196	112

Archetype Base Rate

Volume brawler 50%50% Guillotine specialist

MMA Analytics model · An even split: Shahbazyan's first-round submission threat and Price's recent run of early losses against Price's experience, his late-round volume and Shahbazyan's history of being knocked out.

Niko PriceLeon Shahbazyan

Welterweight

· 54 fighters

Rank bars use the recorded division cohort. Where a rank is unavailable, the comparison shows the difference from the published division average; the white marker denotes equality. Percentage differences are percentage points (pp). Higher is not always better: fewer strikes absorbed is preferable. Missing benchmarks are not estimated.

Stat	Niko	Niko comparison	Div avg	Leon comparison	Leon
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	5.11	10/54	4.38	+1.72 vs avgfew UFC fights	6.10
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	43%	42/54	48.7%	+3.30 pp vs avgfew UFC fights	52%
Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit.	48%	43/54	53.7%	-20.70 pp vs avgfew UFC fights	33%
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	5.57	48/54	3.89	+4.56 vs avgfew UFC fights	8.45
KD AvgKD AvgKnockdown Average — knockdowns scored per 15 minutes. The one-shot power indicator.	0.44	27/54	0.52	Not availablefew UFC fights	1.41 (one knockdown)
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	1.06	34/54	1.64	Not availablefew UFC fights	1.41 (one takedown)
TD Acc	30% (12 of 40)	Not available	—	Not availablefew UFC fights	50% (1 of 2)
TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed.	50% (21 of 42 conceded)	Not available	—	Not available	—
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	0.62	16/54	0.47	-0.47 vs avg	0.00

Statistical Verdict
Price is the division's volume-and-damage outlier in both directions: 10th of 54 in strikes landed and 48th in strikes absorbed. Shahbazyan's column is one Contender Series fight plus 23 seconds — one knockdown and one takedown in 10:39, which is why both of those rates read 1.41 per fifteen. Read his numbers as a description of the Rowe fight rather than a pace: he started fast, landed 52%, and was hit by two-thirds of what came back.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

⚠ R1: single-fight sample for Leon Shahbazyan

Control Time per Round (sec)

Niko Price

Price starts slowly and builds: 15.3 landed at 39.8% in Round 1, 21.3 in Round 2, then 38.7 at 49.8% in Round 3.
Round 1 is where he gets hurt — opponents land 19.9 per opening round on him, three of the five UFC knockdowns he has absorbed came there, and his last two losses ended in it.
It is also where he hurts people: four of his five UFC knockdowns came in Round 1.

Leon Shahbazyan

Shahbazyan's UFC round lasted 23 seconds: one significant strike attempted, none landed, six absorbed and a knockdown against him.
His Contender Series fight is his only longer Octagon sample — a first-round knockdown of Phil Rowe, then a stoppage 16 seconds into Round 3.
He has been past the first round only twice in 17 pro fights, and his longest fight lasted 10:26.

Critical Insight
Price's line climbs every round; Shahbazyan's barely exists. Everything he has done in the Octagon and on the regional scene happens early, and the one time he reached a third round in a big fight he was stopped in it. If Price survives the first round, the round-by-round data favours him more with every minute.

Strike targeting

Niko

61%

17%

22%

Head

61%

Body

17%

Legs

22%

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

NikoLeon

78%Distance—

11%Clinch—

11%Ground—

Share of significant strikes landed at distance, in the clinch and on the ground across each fighter's UFC rounds, weighted by strike volume.

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much

Open SpaceNiko owns it

Price's 5.11 landed per minute and 21 UFC fights of range work against a 33% striking defence

Pocket / ExchangesEven

Price's ten knockouts against his own six KO/TKO losses; Shahbazyan dropped Rowe but has been knocked out five times

ClinchLeon owns it

Six guillotine wins and seven finishes inside a minute; Price has conceded 21 of 42 UFC takedown attempts

GroundLeon owns it

Eleven submission wins against a fighter submitted in two of his last three bouts

Path to Victory

Niko Price

Get through the first round without giving up his neck or his back — the way Smith and Chiesa finished him — then drag Shahbazyan into the second and third, where Price's output climbs and Shahbazyan has almost never been.

Why they win

Experience

21 UFC bouts and more than 170 minutes in the Octagon; Shahbazyan has one UFC fight, 23 seconds long.

Late rounds

38.7 landed per UFC third round — and Shahbazyan has been past Round 1 twice in his career.

Power

Ten knockouts and five UFC knockdowns, against a fighter whose five losses are all KO/TKO.

Volume

5.11 significant strikes per minute, 10th of 54 welterweights.

Shahbazyan's defence

33% striking defence in his Octagon sample — opponents land two of every three strikes.

The gameplan

1
Keep the head up
Throw straight shots and avoid ducking level changes that feed the guillotine.
2
Punish the entry
Meet Shahbazyan's early rushes with uppercuts and knees.
3
Stay upright
Use the fence to stand back up rather than scramble on the mat.
4
Push the pace in Round 2
Shahbazyan faded in his only fight past five minutes against a UFC-level opponent.
5
Pile up volume
His third-round output (38.7 landed) is his best weapon in a fight his opponent wants short.

Path to Victory

Leon Shahbazyan

Finish early: catch the neck in the opening minutes, the route to eleven submission wins, before Price's volume and Shahbazyan's own history of fading take over.

Why they win

First-minute finishing

Seven wins inside 60 seconds and eleven in Round 1.

The guillotine

Six guillotine wins, three of them in his last four fights.

Price's recent losses

Submitted twice and stopped by strikes once in his last three fights, all inside two rounds.

Size and age

Four inches taller and seven years younger.

Price's defence

Price absorbs 5.57 per minute, 48th of 54 welterweights.

The gameplan

1
Start fast
Eleven of his twelve wins came in Round 1.
2
Catch the neck
Price's forward pressure invites front-headlock chances.
3
Don't trade
Price out-landed Phil Rowe 110–63; a slugfest suits him.
4
Take the back in scrambles
Smith and Chiesa both finished Price with rear-naked chokes.
5
Manage the tank
If the first round passes, pace himself — Rowe stopped him early in Round 3 after he won the first.

Danger Zone

How Niko Price loses

He dives into the first exchange, ducks under a punch, and Shahbazyan closes the guillotine — his signature finish and the model's largest Shahbazyan outcome (20).
His recent durability problems show up early again: Veretennikov stopped him in 1:42.
A scramble puts him on his back, where Chiesa and Smith both finished him with rear-naked chokes.

Danger Zone

How Leon Shahbazyan loses

The first-round attack fails, he fades as he did against Rowe, and Price takes over in Round 2 — the model's largest Price outcome is a knockout (20).
Price's power catches him coming in; all five of his losses have been knockouts.
Price's experience drags the fight into Round 3, somewhere Shahbazyan has been twice in 17 fights.

The shared opponent

Phil Rowe, Twice

Both men were stopped by Phil Rowe in Round 3. Shahbazyan dropped him with an uppercut in the first round of their 2019 Contender Series fight, faded, and was finished 16 seconds into the third. Price out-landed Rowe 110–63 in December 2022 and was still stopped at 3:26 of the third.

R3 & R3

The round in which Rowe stopped each of them

Price's return

The Second Farewell

Price walked away after the Chiesa loss in March and is back six months later on a four-fight losing streak, finished in each of the last three. At 37 his volume is intact; the question is his defence, which has always been the price of that volume.

Price's current losing streak

Reading Shahbazyan's rate line

One Knockdown, One Takedown

Shahbazyan's knockdown and takedown rates are both 1.41 per fifteen minutes because each is a single event — one knockdown of Rowe and one takedown — spread over 10:39 of Octagon time. They describe the first round of the Rowe fight, not a pace.

10:39

Shahbazyan's total Octagon time

Shahbazyan's career in one line

Early Finisher, Early Casualty

All twelve of his wins are finishes, eleven in Round 1; all five of his losses are knockouts, four in Round 1. His fights are decided early either way.

12 & 5

Shahbazyan's wins (all finishes) and losses (all KO/TKO)

Where Price is best

The Late Price

Price's output more than doubles from 15.3 landed in Round 1 to 38.7 in Round 3, and his accuracy climbs from 40% to 50%. Shahbazyan has one win past Round 1 in his career, 26 seconds into a third round in 2017.

15.3 → 38.7

Price's strikes landed per round, Round 1 to Round 3

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things

A genuine pick'em built on a clock: Shahbazyan wins his fights in the first minutes, Price does his best work in the third round.

Both men have been knocked out repeatedly — Price six times, Shahbazyan in all five of his losses — and the model sends 36 of 100 fights to a knockout.

The shared opponent tells the story: Phil Rowe stopped both men in Round 3, Shahbazyan after winning the first round and Price after out-landing him nearly two to one.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Niko Price KO/TKO — 20%Niko Price Decision — 18%Niko Price Submission — 12%Leon Shahbazyan KO/TKO — 16%Leon Shahbazyan Decision — 14%Leon Shahbazyan Submission — 20%

Each square = 1 model percentage point. Niko Price gold · Leon Shahbazyan orange · color opacity: 100% = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

The first round

Shahbazyan's eleven first-round wins and Price's recent early losses make the opening round his — that is what drives the 20-point Shahbazyan submission bucket.

Price's late-round volume

38.7 landed per third round against an opponent who has rarely seen one. Price's 20 knockouts and 18 decisions come from surviving the start.

Shahbazyan's chin

All five of his losses have been knockouts, the most recent in 23 seconds.

Price's form and age

Four straight losses, three by stoppage, at 37 and after a brief retirement.

A tiny Octagon sample

Shahbazyan's rate line is essentially one Contender Series fight, which holds conviction at 2/10.

Fight Scripts

of simulations

Price Outlasts Him

Price survives the opening and turns it into a brawl. Shahbazyan fades as he did against Rowe, and Price either stops him with strikes (20) or out-lands him to a decision (18).

Scripted outcomes for Niko Price vs Leon Shahbazyan — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Niko Price win probability

20%

18%

12%

KO/TKODECSUB

Twenty, the largest Price outcome. Ten career knockouts and 5.11 landed per minute against a fighter knocked out in all five of his losses.
Eighteen. Price's volume climbs to 38.7 per third round, and Shahbazyan has rarely been past the first.
Twelve. Three career submissions and 0.62 attempts per fifteen — a finish once Shahbazyan tires.

Leon Shahbazyan win probability

16%

14%

20%

KO/TKODECSUB

Sixteen. One career knockout, but a first-round knockdown of Phil Rowe and a size edge against a 37-year-old finished three straight times.
Fourteen. He has never won a professional decision; this covers a scrappy fifteen minutes won on early grappling.
Twenty, the largest Shahbazyan outcome. Eleven submission wins, six by guillotine, against a fighter submitted twice in his last three bouts.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round

Leon

Niko

29-28 Price

Shahbazyan wins Round 1; Price's volume takes the second and third

Most likely card if it goes the distance — 18 of the model's 32 decisions go to Price

29-28 Shahbazyan

Shahbazyan's early grappling wins Round 1 and a close Round 2

14 of the 32 decisions — it would be his first professional decision win

30-27 Price

Price gets through the first round cleanly and dominates the rest

The one-sided version of Price's decision path

Model and price

Niko Price

Freshness unverified

Model win probability: 50%
Fair odds: +100

Reference quote: +136 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 2.00

Estimated EV: +18.0%
Edge vs no-vig market: +9.2 pp

Leon Shahbazyan

Freshness unverified

Model win probability: 50%
Fair odds: +100

Reference quote: -160 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 2.00

Estimated EV: -18.8%
Edge vs no-vig market: -9.2 pp

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Niko Price

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 2.00 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Leon Shahbazyan

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 2.00 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Analyst price notes

Written against the prices of October 5.

At 50/50, Price +136 is the plus-money side and Shahbazyan −160 is shorter than fair. The method is the sharper read: 68 of 100 simulated fights end inside the distance ('does not go the distance' fair at −213), and Shahbazyan by submission (20%, fair +400) is the single outcome most tied to the first round.

Conviction

2/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

No side. Shahbazyan owns the first round and Price the rest, and the model cannot say with confidence which clock runs out first — Shahbazyan's Octagon record is one Contender Series fight and 23 seconds, and Price's is 21 fights ending in four straight losses. Lean: Pick'em.

What backs the lean

Shahbazyan: eleven first-round wins, seven inside a minute, and a guillotine that Price's recent losses suggest he can find.
Shahbazyan: four inches taller and seven years younger than a fighter who retired in March.
Price: 21 UFC bouts, 38.7 landed per third round and ten career knockouts.
Price: Shahbazyan has been knocked out in all five of his losses and has been past the first round only twice.

What limits it

Shahbazyan's Octagon rate line is one Contender Series fight plus 23 seconds.
Price has lost four straight and been finished in each of his last three.
Both chins are questionable — six KO/TKO losses for Price, five for Shahbazyan.
Price's brief retirement and return leave his current level hard to read.

Final Assessment

In 50 of 100 simulations Leon Shahbazyan gets the fight he wants. Most often it ends on the mat in the first round — a guillotine as Price comes forward, or the back in a scramble, the way Smith and Chiesa finished him (20%). Sometimes his size and aggression produce an early knockout of a fighter finished in each of his last three bouts (16%), and occasionally he grinds out the first decision win of his career (14%).

In the other 50, Niko Price survives the start and the fight changes shape. Shahbazyan fades as he did against Phil Rowe, and Price's volume — 38.7 landed per third round — either stops him (20%) or wins on the cards (18%). A late submission against a tired opponent covers the rest (12%).

On October 10 at the Meta APEX the model has no favourite. It does have a clock: the first round belongs to Shahbazyan, everything after it to Price, and 68 of the 100 fights end before the final bell.

Back to UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan Fight Card