UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan features 12 active bouts, with Brown vs. Smith, Osbourne vs. Durden, Santos vs. Santos and Lebosnoyani vs. Hasanov joining the main event on the main card.
Get picks for this card — model picks + card previews in your inbox.
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan features 12 active bouts. Randy Brown vs. Jacobe Smith is the welterweight co-main, with Osbourne vs. Durden, Santos vs. Santos and Lebosnoyani vs. Hasanov also on the main card, and Reese vs. Gall on the prelims.
BetOnline is our preferred book. We show the quoted price and its implied probability; it is not a guarantee of the best price across all books. Lines move, so confirm the current price before acting on an estimated edge.
Main event
Lightweight · 5 rounds
Market differences are not a ranking of best bets. Conviction is editorial; a close matchup does not automatically mean poor data.
Fights shown: 15/15 · Analyses available: 0/15
Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.
View fight previewMatchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.
View fight previewMatchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.
View fight previewMatchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.
View fight previewMatchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.
View fight previewMatchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.
View fight previewMatchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.
View fight previewMatchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.
View fight previewMatchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.
View fight previewMatchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.
View fight previewMatchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.
View fight previewMatchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.
View fight previewDeep Dive
The Moicano vs. Nolan card, the questions readers ask, and our win estimates.
The Story
Moicano (21-7-1) needs to turn distance into contact: fence pressure, takedowns and back control. Nolan (11-1) needs space for his striking and clean exits before those entries become prolonged grappling exchanges. Five rounds make the cost of each escape part of the main-event story.
Randy Brown (20-8) meets the unbeaten Jacobe Smith (13-0) in the welterweight co-main. Ode Osbourne vs. Cody Durden, Yana Santos (#6) vs. Luana Santos (#7) at bantamweight and Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs. Farman Hasanov complete the main card. Zach Reese vs. Mickey Gall and Piera Rodriguez vs. Talita Alencar are on the prelims, where Lisboa meets the unbeaten Szabová (12-0) at flyweight. Andre Petroski vs. Azamat Bekoev is off this card.
Main Event — Lightweight
01Moicano vs. Nolan
Five rounds at 155. Moicano (21-7-1) wins from the fence and the back; Nolan (11-1) is the taller, busier striker and has never fought a fourth round. Win estimate: Moicano 60%, Nolan 40%.
Full breakdown
Prelims — Women's Strawweight
02Rodriguez vs. Alencar
Piera Rodriguez (12-2) faces Talita Alencar (8-1-1) at 115 lb. The central question is whether Rodriguez can keep her pressure productive without giving Alencar the grappling exchanges she wants.
Full breakdown
Prelims — Women's Flyweight
03Lisboa vs. Szabová
Lucia Szabová (12-0) faces Tainara Lisboa (7-4) in a three-round women's flyweight preliminary bout.
Full breakdown
Main Card — Women's Bantamweight
04Santos vs. Santos
Yana Santos (17-8, #6) meets Luana Santos (11-2, #7) at 135. Both want the clinch: Yana to knee and kick her way to decisions, Luana to set up her judo throws against a soft spot in Yana's takedown defence. Win estimate: Luana Santos 55%, Yana Santos 45%.
Full breakdown
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan takes place on 2026-10-31 at Meta APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States. 12 active bouts. Main card: Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan (lightweight, 5 rounds); Randy Brown vs. Jacobe Smith (welterweight, 3 rounds); Ode Osbourne vs. Cody Durden (flyweight, 3 rounds); Yana Santos vs. Luana Santos (women's bantamweight, 3 rounds); Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs. Farman Hasanov (welterweight, 3 rounds). Prelims: Francis Marshall vs. Dakota Hope (featherweight); Rodrigo Sezinando vs. Theodor Berggren (welterweight); Julian Erosa vs. Jeong Yeong Lee (featherweight); Zach Reese vs. Mickey Gall (middleweight); Nick Klein vs. Joe Kropschot (middleweight); Piera Rodriguez vs. Talita Alencar (women's strawweight); Tainara Lisboa vs. Lucia Szabová (women's flyweight). Cancelled: Andre Petroski vs. Azamat Bekoev — bout off the card; Randy Brown vs. Carlos Leal — Leal injury; Gaston Bolaños vs. Francis Marshall — Bolaños cut in training. Prelims stream on Paramount+ at 5:00 PM ET and the main card at 8:00 PM ET.
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan streams live from the Meta APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday, October 31, 2026, with the main card beginning at 8:00 PM ET on Paramount+. Local Las Vegas time is 5:00 PM PT. The United States is still on daylight time that Saturday. The United Kingdom and Ireland, already on GMT, tune in at 12:00 AM on Sunday. Central Europe is on CET at 1:00 AM Sunday, and Abu Dhabi is at 4:00 AM Gulf Standard Time on Sunday. Prelims start at 5:00 PM ET (2:00 PM PT), three hours before the main card, also on Paramount+. All listed times remain subject to broadcast changes.
12 active bouts. Main card: Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan (lightweight, 5 rounds); Randy Brown vs. Jacobe Smith (welterweight, 3 rounds); Ode Osbourne vs. Cody Durden (flyweight, 3 rounds); Yana Santos vs. Luana Santos (women's bantamweight, 3 rounds); Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs. Farman Hasanov (welterweight, 3 rounds). Prelims: Francis Marshall vs. Dakota Hope (featherweight); Rodrigo Sezinando vs. Theodor Berggren (welterweight); Julian Erosa vs. Jeong Yeong Lee (featherweight); Zach Reese vs. Mickey Gall (middleweight); Nick Klein vs. Joe Kropschot (middleweight); Piera Rodriguez vs. Talita Alencar (women's strawweight); Tainara Lisboa vs. Lucia Szabová (women's flyweight). Cancelled: Andre Petroski vs. Azamat Bekoev — bout off the card; Randy Brown vs. Carlos Leal — Leal injury; Gaston Bolaños vs. Francis Marshall — Bolaños cut in training.
The published main-event analysis favors Renato Moicano 60% to Tom Nolan 40%. Existing previews remain available for unchanged matchups. The co-main analysis favors Randy Brown 58% to Jacobe Smith 42%. Forecasts for cancelled bouts, including Andre Petroski vs. Azamat Bekoev, do not apply to their replacements.
The current card has 12 active bouts. Main card: Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan (lightweight, 5 rounds); Randy Brown vs. Jacobe Smith (welterweight, 3 rounds); Ode Osbourne vs. Cody Durden (flyweight, 3 rounds); Yana Santos vs. Luana Santos (women's bantamweight, 3 rounds); Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs. Farman Hasanov (welterweight, 3 rounds). Prelims: Francis Marshall vs. Dakota Hope (featherweight); Rodrigo Sezinando vs. Theodor Berggren (welterweight); Julian Erosa vs. Jeong Yeong Lee (featherweight); Zach Reese vs. Mickey Gall (middleweight); Nick Klein vs. Joe Kropschot (middleweight); Piera Rodriguez vs. Talita Alencar (women's strawweight); Tainara Lisboa vs. Lucia Szabová (women's flyweight). Cancelled: Andre Petroski vs. Azamat Bekoev — bout off the card; Randy Brown vs. Carlos Leal — Leal injury; Gaston Bolaños vs. Francis Marshall — Bolaños cut in training. Card order remains subject to change.
UFC experience describes the size of the available sample, not the chance of winning. A short UFC record leaves more uncertainty about how a fighter performs against different styles. Opponent quality, recent changes and missing statistics also matter; five bouts alone do not establish that a prediction is well calibrated.
Limited UFC sample
<3 UFC Bouts
Fewer than three UFC fights. Analysis leans more heavily on pre-UFC performance patterns and fighting style.
Developing UFC sample
3-4 UFC Bouts
Some UFC evidence is available, but a few matchups can strongly influence the averages. Check opponent quality and the limitations in each analysis.
Established UFC sample
5+ UFC Bouts
More UFC observations are available. This does not guarantee predictive accuracy; changes in opposition, injuries and style can still limit the estimate.
Note: All fights receive thorough analysis regardless of UFC experience levels. Analyst conviction is an editorial assessment, not a measured probability or statistical confidence interval.
Yellow marks our forecast favorite. The comparison shows our win estimate against the probability implied by each quote. Gap is in percentage points (pp), includes bookmaker margin, and is not expected return.
| Fight | Fighter A | Win estimate A | Market / implied A | Fighter B | Win estimate B | Market / implied B | Model / market & our read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moicano vs Nolan🟢 | Renato Moicano | — | -120 (BetOnline)54.5% implied | Tom Nolan | — | +103 (BetOnline)49.3% implied | Matchup preview Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page. |
| Brown vs Smith🟡 | Randy Brown | — | +220 (BetOnline)31.3% implied | Jacobe Smith | — | -265 (BetOnline)72.6% implied | Matchup preview Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page. |
| Osbourne vs Durden🟢 | Ode Osbourne | — | +100 (BetOnline)50.0% implied | Cody Durden | — | -117 (BetOnline)53.9% implied | Matchup preview Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page. |
| Santos vs Santos🟢 | Yana Santos | — | +269 (BetOnline)27.1% implied | Luana Santos | — | -330 (BetOnline)76.7% implied | Matchup preview Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page. |
| Lebosnoyani vs Hasanov🔴 | Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani | — | -305 (BetOnline)75.3% implied | Farman Hasanov | — | +250 (BetOnline)28.6% implied | Matchup preview Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page. |
| Marshall vs Hope🔴 | Francis Marshall | — | -219 (BetOnline)68.7% implied | Dakota Hope | — | +184 (BetOnline)35.2% implied | Matchup preview Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page. |
| Sezinando vs Berggren🔴 | Rodrigo Sezinando | — | -173 (BetOnline)63.4% implied | Theodor Berggren | — | +147 (BetOnline)40.5% implied | Matchup preview Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page. |
| Erosa vs Lee🟡 | Julian Erosa | — | +140 (BetOnline)41.7% implied | Jeong Yeong Lee | — | -165 (BetOnline)62.3% implied | Matchup preview Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page. |
| Reese vs Gall🟢 | Zach Reese | — | -375 (BetOnline)78.9% implied | Mickey Gall | — | +302 (BetOnline)24.9% implied | Matchup preview Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page. |
| Klein vs Kropschot🔴 | Nick Klein | — | +265 (BetOnline)27.4% implied | Joe Kropschot | — | -325 (BetOnline)76.5% implied | Matchup preview Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page. |
| Rodriguez vs Alencar🟢 | Piera Rodriguez | — | -280 (BetOnline)73.7% implied | Talita Alencar | — | +232 (BetOnline)30.1% implied | Matchup preview Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page. |
| Lisboa vs Szabová🔴 | Tainara Lisboa | — | +540 (BetOnline)15.6% implied | Lucia Szabová | — | -750 (BetOnline)88.2% implied | Matchup preview Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page. |
