Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs Farman Hasanov: analysis & prediction

MAIN CARD · WELTERWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani — Welterweight fighter

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani

“JPL”
11W2L
Switch-Stance Finisher
VS
Farman Hasanov — Welterweight fighter

Farman Hasanov

“The Lion”
5W0L
Freestyle Wrestler

A black-belt striker who has never been taken down in the UFC against seventeen takedowns in one night

WelterweightMeta APEX, Las VegasOctober 31, 202625ft Octagon (Small Cage)

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Hasanov won his only UFC fight by taking Eric Nolan down again and again and never letting him settle. Lebosnoyani has not been taken down in the Octagon, and he has finished three opponents with triangle chokes. The fight is decided by whether the first wave of shots lands; if it does not, the volume and the rounds belong to Lebosnoyani.

Paths that change the fight

  • Jean-Paul LebosnoyaniStuff the first wave of shots as he did against Ko, make Hasanov strike with a switch-stance kickboxer, and if the fight does hit the mat, attack from the bottom with the triangles that finished three opponents.
  • Farman HasanovMake it the Nolan fight — chain the takedowns from the first bell, stay on top, and win every round on control, including the third round Lebosnoyani has lost on the feet twice.
What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 4/10
  • Hasanov landed 17 takedowns in his only UFC fight and was on top for 11:12
  • Lebosnoyani has lost Round 3 on the strike count in both UFC fights

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani

Quote age unknown
Model win probability
57%
Fair odds
-133
Reference quote
-305 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds
1.75

Farman Hasanov

Quote age unknown
Model win probability
43%
Fair odds
+133
Reference quote
+250 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds
2.33
Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Quotes listed with a date but no time are treated as undated.

Sources and data limitations

Career statistics and fight results through September 2026. Composite scores, probabilities and fair prices are MMA Analytics model outputs.

Model methodology
Read the evidenceInspect prices and assumptions
01

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Three-round welterweight main-card bout in the 25-foot APEX cage. Jean-Paul "JPL" Lebosnoyani (11-2, card rank #45) is 27, a switch-stance BJJ black belt who has been training jiu-jitsu since he was three. He is 6-0 since moving up from lightweight after an LFA title loss in 2023, including a 68-second Contender Series knockout and two UFC decisions — a split over Phil Rowe and a unanimous decision over SeokHyeon Ko. In the UFC he lands 3.93 significant strikes per minute and has stopped all four takedowns tried against him. Farman "The Lion" Hasanov (5-0, #58) is 31, an Azerbaijani Master of Sport in freestyle wrestling fighting out of American Top Team, with three knockout wins on the regional circuit. His UFC debut in June was pure wrestling: 17 takedowns from 27 attempts against Eric Nolan, 11:12 of control in fifteen minutes and a 30-27 sweep on all three cards. We take Lebosnoyani 57% / Hasanov 43% at conviction 4 / 10.

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani
Attribute
Farman Hasanov
274 years younger
Age
31
5'11"
Height
+1" Hasanov6'0"
72"
Reach
+2" Hasanov74"
43.5"
Leg Reach
—
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
—
Team
American Top Team
#45
Card Rank
#58
2 (2-0)
UFC Bouts
1 (1-0)
BJJ black belt
Base
Master of Sport, freestyle wrestling
Switch-stance volume, triangle finisher
Fighting Style
Chain takedowns and top control

Hasanov is an inch taller, two inches longer and four years older. Lebosnoyani is the switch-stance fighter with two UFC decisions and a Contender Series knockout; Hasanov's one UFC fight was fifteen minutes in which he landed 17 takedowns and was on top for 11:12.

Venue Factor
The APEX is 25 feet, which suits a chain wrestler: there is never far to go to find the fence. Lebosnoyani has already won two decisions in this cage, stopping all four takedowns tried against him and landing three of his own in each fight.
02

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani, bloodied, celebrates inside the Octagon after his decision win over SeokHyeon Ko in July 2026

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani

Pro Record
11-2-0
UFC Record
2-0 (plus a 2025 Contender Series knockout)
Streak
Six straight wins since moving up to welterweight in 2024
Finish Rate
73% (8 of 11 wins) — 3 KO/TKO, 5 submissions
Avg Fight Time
15:00 (2 UFC bouts)
Chin · Stopped twice, both at lightweight: KO by Spike Carlyle (R1, 2019) and TKO by JaCobi Jones (R2, 2023). Unbeaten at welterweight; no knockdowns absorbed in the UFC.SOS · UFCSwitch-stance striker with a black-belt guard

Lebosnoyani turned pro in LFA in 2018 and went 5-2 at lightweight, finishing all five wins — two triangle chokes, a guillotine, a scarf-hold armlock and a first-round TKO — with a first-round knockout loss to Spike Carlyle in 2019. A second-round TKO loss to JaCobi Jones for the LFA lightweight title in May 2023 sent him up to welterweight, where he is 6-0: a first-round knockout of Adam Wamsley, a decision over Victor Kuiks, a first-round triangle of Kegan Gennrich, and a head kick and punch that dropped Jack Congdon in 68 seconds on the Contender Series. His two UFC fights both went fifteen minutes. He out-landed Phil Rowe 66–54 and held 5:17 of control but lost Round 3 on the strike count, and won a split decision; he was out-landed 66–52 by SeokHyeon Ko but won all three cards 29-28 behind three takedowns, two submission attempts and four stuffed shots. Across 30 UFC minutes he lands 3.93 significant strikes per minute, absorbs 4.00, defends 57%, lands 6 of 13 takedowns and has attempted four submissions.

Farman Hasanov portrait

Farman Hasanov

Pro Record
5-0-0
UFC Record
1-0 (unanimous decision over Eric Nolan, June 2026)
Streak
5-0 — three wins in LFA, then a UFC debut decision
Finish Rate
60% of wins (3 of 5) — 3 KO/TKO
Avg Fight Time
15:00 (1 UFC bout)
Chin · Unbeaten in six pro fights; absorbed 15 significant strikes in fifteen minutes against Nolan.SOS · UFC / LFAChain wrestler

Hasanov is a Master of Sport in freestyle wrestling from Azerbaijan who took up MMA in 2021, won silver at the 2022 European amateur championships, and turned pro that July with a 47-second TKO. He moved to the United States in 2023, training in Pittsburgh before joining American Top Team, and went 3-0 in LFA: a decision over Luke Roberts, a second-round TKO of Marc-Ari William Lewis and a first-round doctor stoppage of Abdurakhmon Fazilov — back-to-back stoppages in 2025. His UFC debut against Eric Nolan in Baku was a wrestling performance with almost no striking: 9 takedowns in Round 1, 17 of 27 across the fight, 11:12 of control, 21 significant strikes to Nolan's 15, and 30-27 on all three cards. Nolan attempted no takedowns, so his takedown defence has not yet been tested in the UFC.

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani
0 dealt · 0 absorbed
Knockdown Exchange
Knockdowns dealt vs absorbed.
Farman Hasanov
0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyanisignature weapons

Triangle ChokeEugene Cacho (R2, 2018), Devon Brock (R1, 2021), Kegan Gennrich (R1 4:00, 2025)
×3
Punches and Kicks (KO/TKO)Skyler Hicks (R1), Adam Wamsley (R1), Jack Congdon — head kick and punch at 1:08 on the Contender Series
×3
Guillotine and ArmlockRichardson Santos (guillotine, R1 1:14) and Caleb Hall (scarf-hold armlock, R1 1:21)
×2

Farman Hasanovsignature weapons

Strikes (TKO)Includes Emil Salimov in 47 seconds (2022), Marc-Ari William Lewis (R2 3:28) and Abdurakhmon Fazilov (R1 4:58, doctor stoppage) in 2025
×4
Chain Takedowns17 of 27 against Eric Nolan and 11:12 of control — the decision, not the finish, is the weapon
×0

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani

W
SeokHyeon Ko
Decision — Unanimous (29-28 ×3)

Opponent context: ufc

R3 (5:00)
UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman — Jul 18, 2026
W
Phil Rowe
Decision — Split (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Opponent context: veteran

R3 (5:00)
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez — Feb 21, 2026
W
Jack Congdon
KO/TKO — Head kick and punch

Opponent context: ufc adjacent

R1 (1:08)
Dana White's Contender Series 2025, Week 4 — Sep 2, 2025 (UFC contract)
W
Kegan Gennrich
Submission — Triangle choke

Opponent context: prospect

R1 (4:00)
LFA 206 — Apr 11, 2025
W
Victor Kuiks
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: prospect

R3 (5:00)
LFA 184 — May 17, 2024
Pattern

Six straight wins at welterweight. The finishes came against regional opposition and on the Contender Series; both UFC fights went to the cards, and he lost Round 3 on the strike count in both.

Farman Hasanov

W
Eric Nolan
Decision — Unanimous (30-27 ×3)

Opponent context: ufc

R3 (5:00)
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres — Jun 27, 2026
W
Abdurakhmon Fazilov
KO/TKO — Doctor stoppage

Opponent context: prospect

R1 (4:58)
LFA 223 — Nov 21, 2025
W
Marc-Ari William Lewis
KO/TKO — Punches

Opponent context: prospect

R2 (3:28)
LFA 211 — Jun 20, 2025
W
Luke Roberts
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: prospect

R3 (5:00)
LFA 177 — Feb 23, 2024
W
Emil Salimov
TKO — punches
R1 (0:47)
Ased Fighting Championship: Selection 2 — Jul 3, 2022
Pattern

Unbeaten, with stoppages on the regional circuit and a pure wrestling decision in his UFC debut. The Nolan fight is the only time his takedowns have been measured at this level.

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani

Win Methods
Wins by Round

Farman Hasanov

Win Methods
Wins by Round
Critical Insight
Lebosnoyani: 3 KO/TKOs, 5 submissions and 3 decisions in 11 professional wins. All eight of Lebosnoyani's finishes came inside the first two rounds, seven in round one. Hasanov: 3 KO/TKOs, 0 submissions and 2 decisions in 5 professional wins. All three of Hasanov's finishes came inside the first two rounds, two in round one. The round bars count every professional win, with decisions in the DEC column.

Opposition strength (no shared opponents)

Without a reliable shared-opponent table, compare who each fighter has been tested against using SOS tier, UFC sample size, and recent elite-tier form — not raw records alone.

FactorJean-PaulFarman
Strength of schedule (SOS tier)UFC — UFC decisions over Phil Rowe (split) and SeokHyeon Ko (unanimous); Contender Series knockout of Jack CongdonUFC / LFA — UFC decision over Eric Nolan (30-27 ×3); LFA stoppages of Marc-Ari William Lewis and Abdurakhmon Fazilov
UFC sample2-0 (plus a 2025 Contender Series knockout)1-0 (unanimous decision over Eric Nolan, June 2026)
Recent ranked / elite touches (last 5)0 elite · 1 veteran tier0 elite · 0 veteran tier
Form-window difficulty edge: Fighter A (4 vs 3 tier points in listed bouts).
Last three opponentsSeokHyeon Ko, Phil Rowe, Jack CongdonEric Nolan, Abdurakhmon Fazilov, Marc-Ari William Lewis
  • No shared opponents: Both came through LFA; they never shared an opponent there.
03

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and UFC experience before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

Model striking score from each UFC rate line

0
Jean-Paul
0
Farmanfew UFC fights

Lebosnoyani lands 3.93 significant strikes per minute at 45% (welterweight average 4.38 and 48.7%) and defends 57%. Hasanov landed 1.40 per minute against Nolan — the fight was spent on top, which is also why his 71% defence and 1.00 absorbed per minute are one-fight numbers.

Grappling

Model grappling score from each UFC rate line

0
Jean-Paul
0
Farmanfew UFC fights

Hasanov landed 17 of 27 takedowns and controlled 11:12 of 15:00 in his only UFC fight. Lebosnoyani lands 3.00 per fifteen minutes (6 of 13), has stopped all four tried against him and attempts two submissions per fifteen minutes.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

0
Jean-Paul
0
Farmanfew UFC fights

Four points to Lebosnoyani; Hasanov's gauges rest on a single UFC fight.

MetricJean-PaulFarman
UFC Bouts2 (2-0)1 (1-0)
Control Time7:26 in 30:00 (opp. 2:02)11:12 in 15:00 (opp. 0:03)few UFC fights
Takedowns6 of 13 · 0 of 4 conceded17 of 27 · none attempted on himfew UFC fights
Round 3 Striking18.5 landed, 24.0 absorbed10 landed, 8 absorbedfew UFC fights
Finish Rate73% (8 of 11)67% (4 of 6)

Archetype Base Rate

Switch-Stance Finisher 57%43% Chain Wrestler

Matchup read — 2 UFC bouts vs 1 · The lean follows two UFC wins, striking volume, an untested-but-perfect takedown defence and a submission game off the back, against a one-fight wrestling performance that remains the live upset path.

Jean-Paul LebosnoyaniFarman Hasanov

Welterweight

· 54 fighters

Rank bars use the recorded division cohort. Where no rank is shown, the comparison shows the difference from the published division average; the white marker denotes equality. Percentage differences are percentage points (pp). Higher is not always better: fewer strikes absorbed is preferable.

StatJean-PaulJean-Paul comparisonDiv avgFarman comparisonFarman
SLpM3.93
-0.45 vs avgfew UFC fights
4.38
-2.98 vs avgfew UFC fights
1.40
Str Acc45%
-3.70 pp vs avgfew UFC fights
48.7%
+2.30 pp vs avgfew UFC fights
51%
Str Def57%
+3.30 pp vs avgfew UFC fights
53.7%
+17.30 pp vs avgfew UFC fights
71%
SApM4.00
+0.11 vs avgfew UFC fights
3.89
-2.89 vs avgfew UFC fights
1.00
KD Avg0.00
-0.52 vs avgfew UFC fights
0.52
-0.52 vs avgfew UFC fights
0.00
TD/153.00
+1.36 vs avgfew UFC fights
1.64
+15.36 vs avgfew UFC fights
17.00
TD Acc46% (6 of 13)
—few UFC fights
—
—few UFC fights
63% (17 of 27)
TD Def100% (0 of 4 conceded)
—few UFC fights
—
—
—
Sub/152.00
+1.53 vs avgfew UFC fights
0.47
-0.47 vs avgfew UFC fights
0.00
Control share25% of UFC cage time
—few UFC fights
—
—few UFC fights
75% of UFC cage time
Statistical Verdict
Lebosnoyani's line is close to a division-average welterweight striker with two above-average grappling numbers: nearly twice the division's takedown rate and four times its submission-attempt rate, and a takedown defence nobody has solved yet. Hasanov's line is one fight long and nothing like average — ten times the division's takedown rate and three-quarters of the fight in control, with barely any striking. The collision is simple: 17 takedowns met no resistance from Nolan, and Lebosnoyani has resisted everything so far.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

⚠ R1, R2, R3: single-fight sample for Farman Hasanov

Control Time per Round (sec)

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani

  • Round 1 is his busiest: 23.5 significant strikes landed at 53% against 19.5 absorbed, with a quarter of his strikes coming on the ground after takedowns. He out-landed Rowe 32–14 in the first round.
  • Round 2 is his control round — 1:31 of top time on average and a takedown in each fight — while the strike count stays level (17.0 to 16.5).
  • Round 3 is his weak spot: accuracy drops to 34% and he absorbs 24.0, losing the round on the strike count in both UFC fights (22–24 to Ko, 15–24 to Rowe). He still attempted two submissions in the third round against Rowe.

Farman Hasanov

  • Round 1 against Nolan was all wrestling: 9 takedowns from 12 attempts, 4:27 of control and one significant strike landed — Nolan landed none.
  • Round 2: 5 of 11 takedowns and 3:33 of control; he landed 10 significant strikes to Nolan's 7.
  • Round 3: 3 of 4 takedowns and 3:12 of control, 10 strikes to 8. His takedown success dropped after Round 1, but his control never went below three minutes a round.
Critical Insight
Hasanov's one UFC fight was a first-round wrestling storm that settled into three-plus minutes of control in every round. Lebosnoyani's UFC fights start fast on the feet and fade on the strike count in Round 3 — which is exactly where a wrestler who is still shooting can bank the last round.

Strike targeting

Jean-Paul

Head
64%
Body
17%
Legs
19%

Farman

Head
95%
Body
5%
Legs
0%

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

Jean-PaulFarman
75%Distance90%
14%Clinch0%
11%Ground10%

Share of significant strikes landed at distance, in the clinch and on the ground across each fighter's UFC rounds, weighted by strike volume.

04

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much
Open SpaceJean-Paul owns it

Lebosnoyani lands 3.93 per minute from a switch stance; Hasanov landed 1.40 and one strike in Round 1 against Nolan

PocketJean-Paul owns it

Lebosnoyani's Congdon head-kick knockout and 57% defence against Hasanov's four regional TKOs

ClinchFarman owns it

Hasanov's chain wrestling — 17 of 27 takedowns — against a takedown defence tested only four times

GroundEven

Hasanov's 11:12 of top control against a black-belt guard with three triangle wins

The Deep Read

This is a clean style collision. Hasanov is a Master of Sport freestyle wrestler whose UFC debut was 17 takedowns and 11:12 of control; Lebosnoyani is a BJJ black belt who has never been taken down in the UFC and has finished three opponents with triangle chokes.

Both men have finishing records on the regional circuit — Lebosnoyani seven first-round finishes, Hasanov three stoppages on strikes — but at this level both have been winning on the cards. Lebosnoyani's two UFC decisions were close: a split over Phil Rowe and a 29-28 sweep over SeokHyeon Ko in a fight he lost on the strike count. Hasanov's was a 30-27 sweep.

Conviction is 4 because the whole fight hinges on one untested interaction: Hasanov's takedowns against Lebosnoyani's takedown defence. The lean goes to the man with more UFC rounds, more ways to win and a guard that punishes the wrong kind of takedown.

Path to Victory

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani

Stuff the first wave of shots as he did against Ko, make Hasanov strike with a switch-stance kickboxer, and if the fight does hit the mat, attack from the bottom with the triangles that finished three opponents.

Why they win
01
Takedown defence

Four takedown attempts against him in the UFC, four stopped — all by SeokHyeon Ko.

02
Striking volume

3.93 significant strikes per minute against a fighter who landed 1.40 in his only UFC fight.

03
Guard danger

A BJJ black belt with three triangle-choke wins and four UFC submission attempts in 30 minutes.

04
UFC experience

Two UFC decisions — one split, one unanimous — against one UFC fight.

05
Youth

Four years younger.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Win the first exchange of shots

    Underhooks and hips early — every stuffed takedown in Round 1 changes the fight's shape.

  2. 2
    Strike on the breaks

    Hasanov barely strikes; Lebosnoyani's volume wins any minute spent standing.

  3. 3
    Attack off the back

    If he goes down, threaten triangles and armlocks instead of stalling.

Path to Victory

Farman Hasanov

Make it the Nolan fight — chain the takedowns from the first bell, stay on top, and win every round on control, including the third round Lebosnoyani has lost on the feet twice.

Why they win
01
Chain wrestling

17 of 27 takedowns against Nolan, 9 of them in Round 1 — ten times the welterweight rate.

02
Top control

11:12 of control in 15 minutes; Nolan landed 15 significant strikes all fight.

03
Round 3

Lebosnoyani has lost Round 3 on the strike count in both UFC fights; Hasanov held more than three minutes of control in his third round.

04
Reach

+2" reach and an inch of height.

05
Finishing power

Three stoppage wins on strikes, including back-to-back TKOs in 2025.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Shoot from the first bell

    Nine Round 1 takedowns against Nolan set the fight; do it again.

  2. 2
    Posture in the guard

    Stay heavy and avoid the triangle — ride control rather than chase damage.

  3. 3
    Own Round 3

    Lebosnoyani fades on the feet late; keep shooting when he slows.

Danger Zone

How Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani loses

  • The Nolan script: the first takedown lands, then the next eight, and a black-belt guard spends the fight defending rather than attacking.

  • He stuffs the early shots but slows in Round 3 again, and a wrestler still shooting takes a close decision.

  • A split-decision fight like Rowe goes the other way.

Danger Zone

How Farman Hasanov loses

  • The shots stall on a fighter who stopped every UFC takedown tried on him, and he is left striking with a switch-stance kickboxer at 1.40 landed per minute.

  • He takes the fight down into a triangle — Lebosnoyani's most common finish.

  • His first UFC fight against a stronger wrestler turns out to be the ceiling, not the median.

Hasanov's UFC debut

Seventeen takedowns

Hasanov landed 17 takedowns from 27 attempts against Eric Nolan and held control for 11:12 of 15:00. Nolan never attempted a takedown of his own.

17.00
Hasanov's takedowns per 15 minutes (one UFC bout)
Lebosnoyani's defence

Nobody has taken him down

Lebosnoyani has stopped all four takedowns tried against him in the UFC — four is a small number, and none came from a wrestler of Hasanov's level.

4 of 4
UFC takedown attempts stopped
Lebosnoyani's round shape

The third-round leak

He absorbs 24.0 significant strikes in an average UFC third round and lost it on the strike count to both Ko and Rowe; his accuracy falls from 53% to 34%.

34%
Lebosnoyani's Round 3 accuracy

Triangles and top position

Three of Lebosnoyani's submission wins are triangle chokes. A wrestler who needs to stay in the guard for eleven minutes is fighting inside his best weapon.

The Five-Round Clock

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani danger windowFarman Hasanov danger windowNeutral / contested
R1 · 0:00–5:00Both men's fastest round

Hasanov landed 9 takedowns and held 4:27 of control in Round 1 against Nolan. Seven of Lebosnoyani's eight career finishes came in Round 1, and he out-lands opponents 23.5 to 19.5 there.

Critical Insight
The fight is likely to reach the cards, and the rounds split by phase: Round 1 decides whether Hasanov's shots work, Round 2 is Lebosnoyani's, and Round 3 is where Hasanov's wrestling meets Lebosnoyani's late fade.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

05

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things
1

The fight is one question: does Hasanov's chain wrestling work on a fighter who has not been taken down in the UFC?

2

Lebosnoyani wins the standing minutes easily and has a dangerous guard, but he has faded in the third round of both UFC fights.

3

Model: Lebosnoyani 57 / Hasanov 43, conviction 4 of 10, decisions 58 of 100. Fair line Lebosnoyani −133 / Hasanov +133.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Lebosnoyani KO/TKO — 9%Lebosnoyani Decision — 30%Lebosnoyani Submission — 18%Hasanov KO/TKO — 7%Hasanov Decision — 28%Hasanov Submission — 8%

Each square = 1 model percentage point. Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani gold · Farman Hasanov orange · color opacity: 100% = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Takedowns vs takedown defence

Hasanov's 17 of 27 against Nolan meets Lebosnoyani's four-for-four in stopped attempts — the single interaction the fight turns on.

Striking volume

3.93 significant strikes landed per minute against 1.40; every minute standing belongs to Lebosnoyani.

The guard

A BJJ black belt with three triangle wins and four UFC submission attempts gives Lebosnoyani an 18% submission path even underneath.

Round 3

Lebosnoyani has lost the third round on the strike count in both UFC fights; that is Hasanov's clearest scoring window.

Sample size

Two UFC fights against one, and Hasanov's takedown defence has never been tested — conviction stays at 4.

Fight Scripts

0%
of simulations

Lebosnoyani on the cards

The early shots are stuffed or neutralised, the striking belongs to Lebosnoyani, and he wins a decision the way he beat Ko and Rowe.

Scripted outcomes for Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs Farman Hasanov — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani win probability
0%
9%
30%
18%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Three career knockouts, including the head kick that ended Congdon in 68 seconds.

  • The Ko and Rowe template — both UFC wins went fifteen minutes.

  • Three triangles, a guillotine and an armlock on the record; four UFC submission attempts.

Farman Hasanov win probability
0%
7%
28%
8%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Three regional TKOs; none at UFC level yet.

  • The Nolan template — 17 takedowns and 30-27 on every card.

  • No submission wins on his record — a small branch from top position.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round
R1
Farman
R2
Jean-Paul
R3
Even
29-28
Lebosnoyani — striking and stuffed shots
~40% of decisions
29-28
Hasanov — two control rounds
~30% of decisions
30-27
Hasanov — the Nolan sweep
~18% of decisions
30-27
Lebosnoyani — no takedowns land
~12% of decisions

Model and price

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani

Quote age unknown
Model win probability
57%
Fair odds
-133
Reference quote
-305 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds
1.75
Estimated EV
-24.3%
Edge vs no-vig market
-15.5 pp

Farman Hasanov

Quote age unknown
Model win probability
43%
Fair odds
+133
Reference quote
+250 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds
2.33
Estimated EV
+50.5%
Edge vs no-vig market
+15.5 pp

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash marks a price without a same-book pair to compare.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Quotes listed with a date but no time are treated as undated.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 1.76 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Farman Hasanov

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 2.33 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

Model fair prices: fight goes the distance 58% (fair −138), Lebosnoyani by decision 30% (+233), Hasanov by decision 28% (+257), Lebosnoyani by submission 18% (+456), Lebosnoyani by KO/TKO 9% (+1011), Hasanov by submission 8% (+1150), Hasanov by KO/TKO 7% (+1329). Lebosnoyani on the moneyline is a bet only at −133 or better; Hasanov becomes the value side at longer than +133. The distance is the model's strongest single angle — both men's UFC wins all went to the cards.

Conviction
0
4/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Lebosnoyani 57 / Hasanov 43. The man with two UFC wins, more striking and a dangerous guard is the lean. Seventeen takedowns in one night is why it is close. Lean: Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani.

What backs the lean

  • 2-0 in the UFC against 1-0, and 6-0 since moving to welterweight

  • 3.93 significant strikes landed per minute against 1.40

  • Four UFC takedown attempts against him, four stopped

  • A BJJ black belt with three triangle-choke wins — dangerous under a wrestler

What limits it

  • Hasanov landed 17 takedowns in his only UFC fight and was on top for 11:12

  • Lebosnoyani has lost Round 3 on the strike count in both UFC fights

  • Lebosnoyani's first UFC win was a split decision

  • Both samples are tiny, and nobody has tested Hasanov's takedown defence

Final Assessment

In roughly 57 of 100 readings, Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani keeps the fight standing or punishes the takedown from his back — a decision (30%) built on striking volume, a submission (18%) from the guard, or a knockout (9%).

In the other 43, Farman Hasanov makes it the Nolan fight and wins a decision (28%) on control, with small finishing branches by strikes (7%) or a submission from top (8%).

Lebosnoyani 57 / Hasanov 43, conviction 4 out of 10. The man with two UFC wins is the lean. The man with seventeen takedowns in one night is why it is close.

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