Rodrigo Sezinando vs Theodor Berggren – UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan Fight Analytics & Prediction

PRELIMS · WELTERWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan

Rodrigo Sezinando

8W2L

Black-Belt Pressure Fighter

Theodor Berggren

“Simba”

8W4L

Long-Range Finisher

Two men stopped by the same opponent, looking for a first UFC win

WelterweightMeta APEX, Las VegasOctober 31, 202625ft Octagon (Small Cage)

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Both men were stopped by Daniil Donchenko in their only UFC fight, and both absorbed heavy volume before the finish. Sezinando is the shorter man but the better grappler, a jiu-jitsu black belt who at least tried to take Donchenko down. Berggren has never won a fight on the cards, so his reach has to produce a finish rather than rounds.

Paths that change the fight

Rodrigo SezinandoClose the four-inch gap, pressure Berggren onto the fence, and wrestle — a black belt on top of a man who has been submitted before, or a three-round decision built on control against a fighter who has never won one.
Theodor BerggrenKeep Sezinando at the end of the jab from either stance, punish his entries, and find the finish that has ended all eight of his wins — ideally before the fight becomes a three-round grind.

What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 3/10

Berggren is +3" in height and +4" in reach and fights from both stances
Berggren has finished all eight of his wins

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Rodrigo Sezinando

Quote age unknown

Model win probability: 55%
Fair odds: -122

Reference quote: -173 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 1.82

Theodor Berggren

Quote age unknown

Model win probability: 45%
Fair odds: +122

Reference quote: +147 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 2.22

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Quotes listed with a date but no time are treated as undated.

Sources and data limitations

Career statistics and fight results through September 2026. Composite scores, probabilities and fair prices are MMA Analytics model outputs.

Model methodology

Read the evidence Inspect prices and assumptions

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Three-round welterweight preliminary in the 25-foot APEX cage, between two men still looking for their first UFC win — and who were both stopped by Daniil Donchenko. Rodrigo Sezinando (8-2, card rank #68) is 28, a Brazilian BJJ black belt and former BFL and Samourai MMA champion who reached the Ultimate Fighter 33 welterweight final on Team Cormier, winning a unanimous and a split decision in the house, before Donchenko out-landed him 39–10, dropped him and stopped him at 4:27 of Round 1 in September 2025. He has not fought since. Theodor "Simba" Berggren (8-4, #72) is 26, a switch-stance Swede who stands three inches taller with four inches more reach, and every one of his eight wins is a finish — five by strikes, three rear-naked chokes. His UFC debut against Donchenko in June lasted into Round 2, but he absorbed 57 significant strikes in the first round alone and was stopped by a head kick and punches at 1:35 of the second. We take Sezinando 55% / Berggren 45% at conviction 3 / 10.

Rodrigo Sezinando

Attribute

Theodor Berggren

Age

2 years younger26

5'9"

Height

+3" Berggren6'0"

71"

Reach

+4" Berggren75"

43.5"

Leg Reach

—

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

Lions MMA

Team

—

#68

Card Rank

#72

1 (0-1)

UFC Bouts

1 (0-1)

Sep 13, 2025 (13 months out)

Last Fight

Jun 27, 2026 (4 months out)

Pressure, level changes, chokes

Fighting Style

Long jab, power, chokes

Berggren is three inches taller, four inches longer and two years younger, and he fights from both stances. Sezinando is the compact orthodox man with a jiu-jitsu black belt. Both have one UFC fight, both lost it to Daniil Donchenko, and Sezinando has been out for thirteen months since.

Venue Factor
Twenty-five feet takes some of the value out of a four-inch reach edge and gives the shorter man the fence. Sezinando did 30% of his striking in the clinch against Donchenko and tried four takedowns in under five minutes; Berggren did not attempt one in six and a half.

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Rodrigo Sezinando

Pro Record

8-2-0

UFC Record

0-1 (the Ultimate Fighter 33 welterweight final)

Streak

One loss (Donchenko, TKO R1 4:27) after a four-fight regional win streak

Finish Rate

88% of wins (7 of 8) — 4 KO/TKO, 3 submissions

Avg Fight Time

4:27 (1 UFC bout)

Chin · Stopped once — Donchenko, R1 4:27, after a knockdown. His other loss was a 2022 decision.SOS · UFC / regional titlesBlack-belt pressure fighter

Sezinando grew up in a favela and started jiu-jitsu at 14; he is a BJJ black belt and multiple-time Brazilian jiu-jitsu champion. He built his record on the Brazilian regional scene and then in Canada, winning titles in Battlefield Fight League and Samourai MMA with a run of finishes — rear-naked chokes of Allan da Silva Pena and Scottie Stockman and stoppages of Saeid Mirzaei, Dario Sinagoga and Jonathan Ramsay. On the Ultimate Fighter 33 he won two three-round decisions in the house for Team Cormier, over Diego Bianchini and Jeff Creighton, the second on short turnaround. The final against Daniil Donchenko was the only time he has been measured at UFC level, and it went badly: out-landed 39–10 at 28% accuracy, 1 of 4 on takedowns, dropped, and stopped at 4:27 of the first round.

Theodor Berggren

Pro Record

8-4-0

UFC Record

0-1

Streak

One loss (Donchenko, TKO R2 1:35) after two straight regional stoppages

Finish Rate

100% (8 of 8 wins) — 5 KO/TKO, 3 submissions

Avg Fight Time

6:35 (1 UFC bout)

Chin · Stopped once by strikes — Donchenko, R2 1:35, after two knockdowns; also submitted once (arm-triangle, 2024) and outpointed twice.SOS · UFC / Cage Warriors / FCRLong-range finisher

Berggren started MMA in 2017 and turned pro in Sweden in November 2021, still working a factory day job. Every win on his record is a finish: a first-round knockout in his debut, a first-round rear-naked choke of Ebrima Faal in 2022, a four-fight run in 2023–24 with two rear-naked chokes and two knockouts, a second-round TKO of Daniele Battaglia at Cage Warriors in Rome, and a third-round TKO of Dagestani wrestler Abdulatip Samedov in the Fight Club Rush main event in February 2026. His four losses split evenly: two decisions (Christian Stigenberg in 2022, Leonardo Damiani in 2025), an arm-triangle by Justin Burlinson in Round 3 at Cage Warriors, and the UFC debut against Daniil Donchenko in Baku — 17 landed to 57 absorbed in Round 1, two knockdowns and a head-kick-and-punches stoppage at 1:35 of Round 2.

Rodrigo Sezinando

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Knockdown Exchange

Knockdowns dealt vs absorbed.

Theodor Berggren

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Rodrigo Sezinandosignature weapons

Punches (KO/TKO)Includes Saeid Mirzaei (punches and knee, R2), Dario Sinagoga (R2) and Jonathan Ramsay (R1) in 2023–24

×4

Rear-Naked ChokeAllan da Silva Pena (R1 2:51, 2022) and Scottie Stockman (R1 3:04, 2024)

×2

Theodor Berggrensignature weapons

Punches (KO/TKO)Includes Moein Ahmadi (R1 1:36), Daniele Battaglia (R2 4:44) and Abdulatip Samedov (R3 2:20)

×5

Rear-Naked ChokeEbrima Faal (2022), Markus Mäki-Ventelä (2023) and Kristjan Toniste (R1 2:35, 2024)

×3

Rodrigo Sezinando

Daniil Donchenko

KO/TKO — Punches

Opponent context: ufc

R1 (4:27)

Noche UFC: Lopes vs. Silva — Sep 13, 2025 (Ultimate Fighter 33 welterweight final)

Jonathan Ramsay

KO/TKO — Punches

R1 (3:06)

Samourai MMA 12 — Nov 15, 2024

Dario Sinagoga

KO/TKO — Punches

R2 (2:03)

BFL 80 — May 9, 2024

Scottie Stockman

Submission — Rear-naked choke

R1 (3:04)

BFL 79 — Feb 8, 2024

Saeid Mirzaei

KO/TKO — Punches and knee

R2 (3:21)

BFL 76 — Mar 30, 2023

Pattern

Sezinando's regional run was all stoppages — two in Round 1, two in Round 2 in his last four wins — before the Donchenko final, which was the first time he was stopped. He has not fought in thirteen months.

Theodor Berggren

Daniil Donchenko

KO/TKO — Head kick and punches

Opponent context: ufc

R2 (1:35)

UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres — Jun 27, 2026

Abdulatip Samedov

KO/TKO — Punches

R3 (2:20)

Fight Club Rush 27 — Feb 7, 2026

Daniele Battaglia

KO/TKO — Punches

Opponent context: prospect

R2 (4:44)

Cage Warriors 195: Rome — Oct 4, 2025

Leonardo Damiani

Decision — Unanimous

R3 (5:00)

Fight Club Rush 23 — Mar 29, 2025

Justin Burlinson

Submission — Arm-triangle choke

Opponent context: prospect

R3 (2:44)

Cage Warriors 181: Newcastle — Nov 23, 2024

Pattern

Berggren's last five include three losses. His two recent wins came late (Round 2 and Round 3 stoppages), and his last three losses all went into Round 2 or 3.

Rodrigo Sezinando

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Theodor Berggren

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Critical Insight
Sezinando: 4 KO/TKOs, 3 submissions and 1 decision in 8 professional wins. All seven of Sezinando's finishes came inside the first two rounds, five in round one. Berggren: 5 KO/TKOs, 3 submissions and 0 decisions in 8 professional wins. Of Berggren's 8 finishes, six in round one, one in round two and one in round three. The round bars count every professional win, with decisions in the DEC column.

Common Opponents

Opponent	Rodrigo	Theodor
Daniil Donchenko	L· TKO R1 4:27 (Sep 2025) — out-landed 39–10, knocked down once	L· TKO R2 1:35 (Jun 2026) — out-landed 71–23, knocked down twice
Berggren lasted longer and landed more; Sezinando absorbed less and tried to wrestle. Neither result says much about how they match up with each other.

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and UFC experience before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

Model striking score from each one-fight UFC line and pro record

Rodrigofew UFC fights

Theodorfew UFC fights

Both UFC lines are single losses. Berggren landed 3.49 per minute at 36% but defended 34% and absorbed 10.78; Sezinando landed 2.25 at 28% and absorbed 8.76. Berggren's four-inch reach and eight finishes tip the gauge his way.

Grappling

Model grappling score from each one-fight UFC line and pro record

Rodrigofew UFC fights

Theodorfew UFC fights

Sezinando is a BJJ black belt who tried four takedowns in 4:27 against Donchenko and has three choke wins. Berggren has three choke wins of his own but did not attempt a takedown in his UFC fight and has been submitted once.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

Rodrigofew UFC fights

Theodorfew UFC fights

Five points to Sezinando, all of it from the grappling side.

Metric	Rodrigo	Theodor
UFC Bouts	1 (0-1)	1 (0-1)
Finish Rate	88% (7 of 8)	100% (8 of 8)
Decision Wins	3	0 (0-2 in decisions)
vs Donchenko	10–39 in 4:27, 1 knockdown absorbedfew UFC fights	23–71 in 6:35, 2 knockdowns absorbedfew UFC fights
Layoff	13 months	4 months

Archetype Base Rate

Black-Belt Pressure Fighter 55%45% Long-Range Finisher

Matchup read — one UFC bout each · No archetype sample carries much weight on one UFC fight apiece. The 55-45 lean follows Sezinando's grappling edge and decision record against Berggren's reach and finishing rate.

Rodrigo SezinandoTheodor Berggren

Welterweight

· 54 fighters

Rank bars use the recorded division cohort. Where no rank is shown, the comparison shows the difference from the published division average; the white marker denotes equality. Percentage differences are percentage points (pp). Higher is not always better: fewer strikes absorbed is preferable.

Stat	Rodrigo	Rodrigo comparison	Div avg	Theodor comparison	Theodor
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	2.25	-2.13 vs avgfew UFC fights	4.38	-0.89 vs avgfew UFC fights	3.49
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	28%	-20.70 pp vs avgfew UFC fights	48.7%	-12.70 pp vs avgfew UFC fights	36%
Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit.	43%	-10.70 pp vs avgfew UFC fights	53.7%	-19.70 pp vs avgfew UFC fights	34%
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	8.76	+4.87 vs avgfew UFC fights	3.89	+6.89 vs avgfew UFC fights	10.78
KD AvgKD AvgKnockdown Average — knockdowns scored per 15 minutes. The one-shot power indicator.	0.00	-0.52 vs avgfew UFC fights	0.52	-0.52 vs avgfew UFC fights	0.00
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	3.37	+1.73 vs avgfew UFC fights	1.64	-1.64 vs avgfew UFC fights	0.00
TD Acc	25% (1 of 4)	—few UFC fights	—	—	—
TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed.	67% (1 conceded of 3)	—few UFC fights	—	—	—
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	0.00	-0.47 vs avgfew UFC fights	0.47	-0.47 vs avgfew UFC fights	0.00
Finish rate	88%	—	—	—	100%

Statistical Verdict
Against the welterweight pool, both one-fight lines are well below average in every striking column — which says more about Daniil Donchenko than about either man. The usable differences are shape, not level: Berggren threw more and landed more, and absorbed even more; Sezinando mixed in takedowns and clinch work. Neither man has a knockdown or a submission attempt at UFC level yet.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

⚠ R1: single-fight sample for Rodrigo Sezinando

⚠ R1, R2: single-fight sample for Theodor Berggren

Control Time per Round (sec)

Rodrigo Sezinando

Sezinando's only UFC round: 10 of 36 significant strikes landed, 39 absorbed, one knockdown absorbed, and a stoppage at 4:27.
He was the one who tried to change the fight — 1 of 4 on takedowns, 1:02 of control, 30% of his strikes in the clinch — against a man who took him down once in three tries.
He has never reached Round 2 in the UFC. His two Ultimate Fighter house wins went three rounds each.

Theodor Berggren

Berggren's Round 1 against Donchenko: 17 landed at 36%, 57 absorbed in five minutes — nearly three times the division's per-minute average — and no takedown attempts from either man.
Round 2: 6 landed, 14 absorbed, knocked down twice and stopped by a head kick and punches at 1:35.
Outside the UFC he finishes late as well as early — his last two wins were a Round 2 and a Round 3 stoppage.

Critical Insight
Two short UFC samples against the same opponent. Berggren's is louder — more thrown, more landed, far more absorbed. Sezinando's is shorter and more varied, with the only takedown attempts in either fight. Neither shows a round won.

Strike targeting

Rodrigo

70%

30%

Head

70%

Body

30%

Legs

Theodor

65%

31%

Head

65%

Body

31%

Legs

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

RodrigoTheodor

70%Distance87%

30%Clinch13%

0%Ground0%

Share of significant strikes landed at distance, in the clinch and on the ground across each fighter's UFC rounds, weighted by strike volume.

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much

Open SpaceTheodor owns it

Berggren +4" reach, switch stance and 3.49 landed per minute against Sezinando's 2.25

PocketEven

Both absorbed heavily against Donchenko (8.76 and 10.78 per minute); both have four or more knockout wins

ClinchRodrigo owns it

Sezinando did 30% of his UFC striking in the clinch and tried four takedowns; Berggren tried none

GroundRodrigo owns it

BJJ black belt with three choke wins, against a man who has been submitted once — though Berggren has three chokes of his own

The Deep Read

Both men arrive with one UFC fight and one UFC loss, to the same opponent. Daniil Donchenko stopped Sezinando in the first round of the Ultimate Fighter 33 final and Berggren in the second round of his debut in Baku, and out-landed them by a combined 110 to 33. Those fights say a lot about Donchenko; they say only a little about this matchup.

The records say more. Berggren has finished all eight of his wins and has never won a decision. Sezinando is a jiu-jitsu black belt with four knockouts, three chokes and one decision, and he is the only one of the two who shot for takedowns at UFC level. Berggren is taller, longer, younger and more active.

Conviction is 3 because both samples are tiny and both men were beaten badly in them. The lean goes to the man with more ways to win and a proven ability to win rounds, against the longer finisher who needs his finish to arrive before the cards.

Path to Victory

Rodrigo Sezinando

Close the four-inch gap, pressure Berggren onto the fence, and wrestle — a black belt on top of a man who has been submitted before, or a three-round decision built on control against a fighter who has never won one.

Why they win

Grappling

A BJJ black belt with three choke wins, and the only man in the fight who attempted a takedown at UFC level (four in 4:27).

Decision record

One pro decision win, plus two three-round decisions in the Ultimate Fighter house. Berggren has never won on the cards.

Clinch work

30% of his strikes against Donchenko came in the clinch; the 25-foot cage shortens the walk to the fence.

Finishing record

Four knockouts and three chokes; four straight stoppages before the Ultimate Fighter.

The gameplan

1
Get inside
Pressure behind feints and level changes; do not stand at the end of a 75-inch reach.
2
Fence and clinch
Use the small cage — tie up, knee, and take the back from scrambles.
3
Bank control
If the finish is not there, win rounds on control; Berggren is 0-2 in decisions.

Path to Victory

Theodor Berggren

Keep Sezinando at the end of the jab from either stance, punish his entries, and find the finish that has ended all eight of his wins — ideally before the fight becomes a three-round grind.

Why they win

Length

+3" in height and +4" in reach, and he can switch stances.

Finishing rate

Eight wins, eight finishes — six in Round 1, and late ones too in his last two wins.

Volume

Landed 3.49 significant strikes per minute in his UFC fight, against Sezinando's 2.25.

Activity

Four months since his last fight against thirteen for Sezinando.

Youth

Two years younger.

The gameplan

1
Jab from both stances
Keep the shorter man at distance and make him reach.
2
Punish the shot
Sezinando landed one of four takedowns against Donchenko; make every attempt cost him.
3
Hunt the finish
His record says he wins by stoppage — do not wait for the cards.

Danger Zone

How Rodrigo Sezinando loses

He cannot get past the jab, and a range fight at 28% accuracy looks like the Donchenko final again.
His entries get countered on the way in by the longer man's power.
Thirteen months of inactivity after a knockout loss shows in the first round.

Danger Zone

How Theodor Berggren loses

His defence leaks the way it did against Donchenko, and a shorter man walks through the jab.
Sezinando gets him to the fence and the mat, and the black belt takes over.
It goes fifteen minutes — territory where he has never won.

The Donchenko overlap

Same opponent, two shapes

Sezinando was out-landed 39–10 and stopped in 4:27; Berggren was out-landed 71–23 and stopped at 1:35 of Round 2. The man who absorbed less lost faster; the man who absorbed more had longer and never shot.

110–33

Donchenko's combined significant-strike margin

Berggren's record

All finishes, no decisions

Berggren has finished all eight of his wins and lost both of his decisions. His path is the stoppage.

8 of 8

Berggren wins inside the distance

Sezinando's UFC round

The only takedowns

Sezinando tried four takedowns in 4:27 against Donchenko; Berggren tried none in 6:35. On a small cage, the shorter black belt is the one with a second phase.

3.37

Sezinando's takedowns landed per 15 minutes (one UFC bout)

Inactivity

Sezinando has not fought since his September 2025 knockout loss; Berggren fought four months ago.

The Five-Round Clock

Rodrigo Sezinando danger windowTheodor Berggren danger windowNeutral / contested

R1 · 0:00–5:00Both men's finishing round

Five of Sezinando's seven finishes and six of Berggren's eight came in Round 1. Both were hurt early by Donchenko — Sezinando stopped at 4:27, Berggren out-landed 57–17.

Critical Insight
Early, both men can finish. The longer the fight goes, the more it tilts toward the man who has won decisions and can wrestle — unless Berggren's late power lands first.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things

Both UFC samples are single losses to Daniil Donchenko; the records underneath them are more useful than the rates.

Berggren has finished all eight of his wins and never won a decision, so his reach has to produce a stoppage; Sezinando can win by finish or on the cards.

Model: Sezinando 55 / Berggren 45, conviction 3 of 10. Fair line Sezinando −122 / Berggren +122.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Sezinando KO/TKO — 18%Sezinando Decision — 22%Sezinando Submission — 15%Berggren KO/TKO — 20%Berggren Decision — 18%Berggren Submission — 7%

Each square = 1 model percentage point. Rodrigo Sezinando gold · Theodor Berggren orange · color opacity: 100% = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Grappling edge

Sezinando is a BJJ black belt and the only man in the fight to attempt a UFC takedown; Berggren has been submitted once.

Reach and finishing

Berggren is +4" in reach and has finished all eight of his wins — the reason his KO/TKO share (20%) is the largest single bucket.

Decision record

Sezinando has one pro decision win and two three-round wins in the Ultimate Fighter house; Berggren has never won on the cards.

Inactivity

Thirteen months out for Sezinando after a first-round knockout loss, against four months for Berggren.

Tiny samples

4:27 and 6:35 of UFC cage time, both against the same opponent — conviction stays at 3.

Fight Scripts

of simulations

Sezinando gets inside

Pressure and level changes get him to the fence and the mat — a knockout on the inside (18%) or a choke (15%).

Scripted outcomes for Rodrigo Sezinando vs Theodor Berggren — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Rodrigo Sezinando win probability

18%

22%

15%

KO/TKODECSUB

Four career knockouts, the last two regional wins by punches.
One pro decision and two three-round wins in the Ultimate Fighter house.
BJJ black belt with two rear-naked-choke wins; Berggren has been submitted once.

Theodor Berggren win probability

20%

18%

KO/TKODECSUB

Five knockouts in eight wins and the reach to land first — the largest single bucket.
The least supported path on his record: 0-2 in decisions.
Three rear-naked chokes, kept small against a black belt.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round

Theodor

Rodrigo

29-28

Sezinando — control after a losing first round

~40% of decisions

29-28

Berggren — volume from range

~35% of decisions

30-27

Sezinando — wrestling in every round

~15% of decisions

30-27

Berggren — Sezinando never gets inside

~10% of decisions

Model and price

Rodrigo Sezinando

Quote age unknown

Model win probability: 55%
Fair odds: -122

Reference quote: -173 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 1.82

Estimated EV: -13.2%
Edge vs no-vig market: -6.0 pp

Theodor Berggren

Quote age unknown

Model win probability: 45%
Fair odds: +122

Reference quote: +147 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 2.22

Estimated EV: +11.1%
Edge vs no-vig market: +6.0 pp

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash marks a price without a same-book pair to compare.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Quotes listed with a date but no time are treated as undated.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Rodrigo Sezinando

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 1.82 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Theodor Berggren

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 2.23 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

Model fair prices: fight does not go the distance 60% (fair −150), Sezinando by decision 22% (+355), Berggren by KO/TKO 20% (+400), Sezinando by KO/TKO 18% (+456), Berggren by decision 18% (+456), Sezinando by submission 15% (+567), Berggren by submission 7% (+1329). Sezinando on the moneyline is a bet only at −122 or better; Berggren becomes the value side at longer than +122. Of the model's buckets, Berggren by decision is the least supported by his record — he has never won one — so his side is best expressed through the knockout (fair +400).

Conviction

3/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Sezinando 55 / Berggren 45. Two one-fight UFC losses do not make a strong favourite. The black belt with more ways to win is the lean. Lean: Rodrigo Sezinando.

What backs the lean

A BJJ black belt with three choke wins and the only UFC takedown attempts in the matchup
Four knockouts, three submissions and a decision — he can win early or on the cards
Berggren has never won a decision and has been submitted once
The 25-foot cage shortens the walk to the fence for the shorter man

What limits it

Berggren is +3" in height and +4" in reach and fights from both stances
Berggren has finished all eight of his wins
Sezinando has not fought in thirteen months, since a first-round knockout loss
Both men were stopped in their only UFC fight — one data point each

Final Assessment

In roughly 55 of 100 readings, Rodrigo Sezinando gets inside the reach and turns it into his fight — a decision on control (22%), a knockout on the inside (18%) or a choke (15%). The Donchenko final is the risk inside that reading, not the template.

In the other 45, Theodor Berggren keeps him on the end of the jab and finishes him the way he has finished all eight of his wins — by KO/TKO (20%) — or out-volumes him over three rounds (18%). His submission share is 7%.

Sezinando 55 / Berggren 45, conviction 3 out of 10. Two one-fight UFC losses do not make a strong favourite. The shorter man with the black belt and the decision record is the lean.

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