Andre Petroski vs Azamat Bekoev (cancelled): bout cancelled

PRELIM · MIDDLEWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan
Andre Petroski — Middleweight fighter

Andre Petroski

13W6L
Submission Wrestler
Azamat Bekoev — Middleweight fighter

Azamat Bekoev

“Iron”
20W5L
Knockout Pressure

Grappling sheet versus recent knockouts — narrow lean, low conviction

MiddleweightMeta APEX, Las VegasOctober 31, 202625ft Octagon (Small Cage)
01

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Three-round middleweight preliminary bout in the 25-foot APEX cage. Andre Petroski (13-6, 8-5 in the UFC, card rank #56) is 35, 6'0" with a 73" reach, and has lost three straight — a decision to Edmen Shahbazyan, then stoppages by Cam Rowston and Cody Brundage; he has been stopped by strikes four times in 13 UFC bouts. His case is the grappling line: 3.13 takedowns per 15 minutes at 53%, 86% takedown defence, 1.23 submission attempts per 15 and just over four minutes of control per bout. Azamat "Iron" Bekoev (20-5, 2-2 in the UFC, card rank #57) is 30, the same height, with a 72" reach. He stopped Zach Reese and Ryan Loder in round one, then was stopped by Yousri Belgaroui and choked by Tresean Gore, both in round three. He lands 4.57 a minute and has scored three knockdowns in four UFC bouts, but absorbs 6.83 a minute at 31% defence. We take Petroski 55% / Bekoev 45% at conviction 4 / 10.

Andre Petroski
Attribute
Azamat Bekoev
35
Age
5-year gap30
6'0"
Height
6'0"
73"+1" Petroski
Reach
72"
39"
Leg Reach
+1" Bekoev40"
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Marquez MMA
Team
American Top Team
Aug 28, 2021
Octagon Debut
Jan 18, 2025
8-5 (13 bouts)
UFC record
2-2 (4 bouts)
#56
Card Rank
#57
Switch-stance wrestler
Fighting Style
Orthodox pressure / KO power

The same frame, five years apart. Same listed height; Petroski is +1" in reach and Bekoev +1" in leg reach. Bekoev is orthodox; Petroski switches. Petroski has 13 UFC bouts; Bekoev has four.

Venue Factor
The APEX is 25 feet. Two men who both shoot more than three times per 15 minutes do not need a big cage. The fence is the fight. The question is who is still upright when the first shot comes.
02

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Andre Petroski landing a right hand on Gerald Meerschaert

Andre Petroski

Pro Record
13-6-0
UFC Record
8-5 (13 UFC bouts)
Streak
Three straight losses — Brundage TKO, Rowston TKO, Shahbazyan UD
Finish Rate
62% (8 of 13 wins) — 4 KO/TKO, 4 submissions
Avg Fight Time
10:20
Chin · Stopped by strikes four times in the UFC — Michel Pereira, Jacob Malkoun, Cam Rowston and Cody Brundage, all inside the first two rounds — and knocked down four times.SOS · EstablishedSubmission wrestler

Petroski's 13 wins split 5 decisions, 4 submissions and 4 knockouts. In the UFC that is five decisions, two submissions (an anaconda choke of Nick Maximov in round one, an arm triangle of Hu Yaozong in round three) and one stoppage (punches and elbows on Micheal Gillmore in round three). The grappling line is real — 3.13 takedowns per 15 minutes at 53% and 4:02 of control per bout, 12:50 of it against Josh Fremd — but his last five UFC wins all went to decision, and four of his five UFC losses were stoppages inside two rounds.

Azamat Bekoev striking Ryan Loder against the fence

Azamat Bekoev

Pro Record
20-5-0
UFC Record
2-2 (4 UFC bouts)
Streak
Two straight losses after two knockouts — Gore guillotine, Belgaroui TKO
Finish Rate
80% (16 of 20 wins) — 8 KO/TKO, 8 submissions
Avg Fight Time
7:33
Chin · Stopped once by strikes (Yousri Belgaroui, round three, 2025, after absorbing 102 significant strikes). Not knocked down in four UFC bouts; both UFC losses came in round three.SOS · Early UFC careerKnockout pressure

Bekoev's 20 wins split 8 knockouts, 8 submissions and 4 decisions, and ten of his 16 finishes came in round one. In the UFC he has scored three knockdowns in four bouts and stopped Reese (3:04) and Loder (2:44) in round one. The hole is defence: 31% striking defence and 6.83 absorbed per minute — Belgaroui out-landed him 102 to 24, Gore 78 to 70. He averages 3.48 takedowns per 15 minutes, but none of his eight career submissions came in the UFC, and Gore choked him.

Andre Petroski
0 dealt · 0 absorbed
Knockdown Exchange
Knockdowns dealt vs absorbed.
Azamat Bekoev
0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Andre Petroskisignature weapons

Chokes and arm locksAnaconda choke of Nick Maximov (R1 1:16) and arm triangle of Hu Yaozong (R3 4:46) in the UFC; a kimura and an armbar before it.
×4
Ground strikes (TKO)Four career stoppages; in the UFC, punches and elbows on Micheal Gillmore in round three.
×4

Azamat Bekoevsignature weapons

Round-one knockoutSeven of his eight knockouts came in round one, including Reese (3:04) and Loder (2:44) in the UFC; three knockdowns in four UFC bouts.
×7
ChokesEight career submissions — three rear-naked chokes, two guillotines, two north-south chokes and an arm triangle — none yet in the UFC.
×8

Andre Petroski

L
Cody Brundage
TKO — punches

Opponent context: prospect

R2 (0:44)
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa — May 16, 2026
L
Cam Rowston
TKO — punches

Opponent context: prospect

R1 (2:41)
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes — Sep 27, 2025
L
Edmen Shahbazyan
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: veteran

R3
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley — Jun 14, 2025
W
Rodolfo Vieira
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: veteran

R3
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues — Feb 15, 2025
W
Dylan Budka
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: prospect

R3
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady — Sep 7, 2024
Pattern

0-3 in the current run. The two wins in this five went the distance; the two knockout losses came inside two rounds.

Azamat Bekoev

L
Tresean Gore
Submission — guillotine choke

Opponent context: prospect

R3 (3:27)
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan — Apr 4, 2026
L
Yousri Belgaroui
TKO — punches

Opponent context: prospect

R3 (0:55)
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen — Oct 18, 2025
W
Ryan Loder
TKO — punches

Opponent context: prospect

R1 (2:44)
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo — May 3, 2025
W
Zach Reese
KO — punch

Opponent context: prospect

R1 (3:04)
UFC 311 — Jan 18, 2025
W
Chauncey Foxworth
KO — punch

Opponent context: ufc adjacent

R2 (4:32)
LFA 186 — Jun 22, 2024
Pattern

3-2 across the last five: an LFA stoppage and two round-one UFC knockouts, then two round-three losses — Belgaroui by strikes, Gore by guillotine.

Andre Petroski

Win Methods
Wins by Round

Azamat Bekoev

Win Methods
Wins by Round
Critical Insight
Petroski: 4 knockouts, 4 submissions and 5 decisions in 13 wins, with finishes in round one (4), two (2) and three (2); every UFC win since the Maximov choke in 2022 has been a decision. Bekoev: 8 knockouts, 8 submissions and 4 decisions in 20 wins; ten of his 16 finishes came in round one. The round bars count every professional win.

Common Opponents

OpponentAndreAzamat
Dylan BudkaW· Unanimous decision (Sep 7, 2024)W· Split decision, five rounds (Jun 16, 2023)
Petroski held Budka down for 9:20 and won every card; Bekoev needed five rounds and a split decision in his last year before the UFC. A nudge toward Petroski's grappling, not a proof.
03

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and UFC experience before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

Output, accuracy, defence and absorption

0
Andre
0
Azamat

Bekoev lands 4.57 per minute at 52% but absorbs 6.83 at 31% defence. Petroski lands 2.75 at 49% and absorbs 2.99 at 52%.

Grappling

Takedowns, takedown defence, submissions and control

0
Andre
0
Azamat

Petroski: 3.13 takedowns per 15 at 53%, 86% takedown defence, 1.23 submission attempts per 15, 4:02 of control per bout. Bekoev: 3.48 at 44%, 63% takedown defence, no UFC submission attempts.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

0
Andre
0
Azamat

Technical lean to Petroski on defensive wrestling and submission rate.

MetricAndreAzamat
SLpM2.754.57
Str Def / SApM52% / 2.9931% / 6.83
Knockdowns in the UFC (dealt / absorbed)1 / 43 / 0
Control per UFC bout (own / opponents')4:02 / 0:362:08 / 1:16
UFC bouts134

Archetype Base Rate

Submission Wrestler 55%45% Knockout Pressure

Matchup-specific read — 55/45 · The rate lines are the reason this is still a Petroski lean, and the skids are the reason the conviction stays at 4.

Andre PetroskiAzamat Bekoev

Middleweight

· 47 fighters

Rank bars use the recorded division cohort. Where no rank is shown, the comparison shows the difference from the published division average; the white marker denotes equality. Percentage differences are percentage points (pp). Higher is not always better: fewer strikes absorbed is preferable.

StatAndreAndre comparisonDiv avgAzamat comparisonAzamat
SLpM2.75
42/47
4.22
17/47
4.57
Str Acc49%
31/47
52.9%
22/47
52%
Str Def52%
22/47
51.9%
46/47
31%
SApM2.99
14/47
3.63
46/47
6.83
KD/150.11
36/47
0.55
4/47elitefew UFC fights
1.49
Damage Ratio0.92
37/47
1.25
45/47
0.67
TD/153.13
9/47
1.93
7/47
3.48
TD Acc53%
7/47
37.2%
15/47
44%
TD Def86%
11/47
70.9%
32/47
63%
Sub/151.23
8/47
0.72
36/47
0.00
UFC bouts13
—
—
—
4
Statistical Verdict
Bekoev's 1.49 knockdowns per 15 minutes are 4th of 47 and his 3.48 takedowns per 15 are 7th — but his 31% striking defence and 6.83 absorbed are both 46th. Petroski is 42nd in output, but 9th in takedowns, 8th in submission attempts and 11th in takedown defence. The striking-defence row keeps Petroski live even while he is 0-3.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

Control Time per Round (sec)

Andre Petroski

  • His output is low and flat — 11.4, 12.1 and 12.6 significant strikes a round across 13, 10 and 8 rounds — but his accuracy climbs from 43.4% to 59.1%.
  • Control builds with the clock: 1:17, 1:39 and 2:25 in the average first, second and third rounds, and 41.6% of his third-round strikes land on the ground.
  • Three of the four knockdowns he has absorbed in the UFC came in rounds one and two.

Azamat Bekoev

  • He is busy early — 22.3 and 21.5 significant strikes in the average first and second rounds, with a knockdown every other round — then lands 3.0 in the third.
  • About a fifth of his strikes land on the ground in rounds one and two (21.3% and 23.3%), with 88 and 82 seconds of control.
  • Opponents out-land him in every average round: 24.0, 31.5 and 23.5.
Critical Insight
Bekoev's damage arrives in the first ten minutes — and so does the damage he takes. Petroski's control and accuracy build as the fight goes on. The fight is a race between Bekoev's early power and Petroski's late wrestling.

Strike targeting

Andre

Head
64%
Body
20%
Legs
16%

Azamat

Head
64%
Body
28%
Legs
8%

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

AndreAzamat
75%Distance66%
3%Clinch13%
22%Ground21%

Share of significant strikes landed at distance, in the clinch and on the ground across each fighter's UFC rounds, weighted by strike volume.

04

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much
Open SpaceAzamat owns it

4.57 landed per minute against 2.75 — if it stays a striking minute

Pocket / ExchangesAzamat owns it

Three knockdowns in four UFC bouts against a man knocked down four times

ClinchAndre owns it

Level changes into fence control in a 25-foot cage

GroundAndre owns it

1.23 submission attempts per 15 against none; 86% takedown defence and 4:02 of control per bout

The Deep Read

The records say veteran grappler against a 20-5 finisher. The UFC logs say a man on a three-fight skid against a man on a two-fight skid. The rate lines are the reason this is still a Petroski lean, and the skids are the reason the conviction stays at 4.

The 25-foot cage compresses the striking range. That helps Petroski if he is willing to wrestle immediately, and it helps Bekoev if Petroski hesitates, because there is nowhere to reset after a clean punch.

Dylan Budka is the one shared name: Petroski held him down for 9:20 and won every card in 2024; Bekoev beat him by split decision over five rounds in 2023.

Path to Victory

Andre Petroski

Get the shot in before the counter lands. 86% takedown defence blunts Bekoev's 3.48 rate, 1.23 submission attempts per 15 is the finish if the neck is there the way it was for Maximov, and a decision is the other win — Vieira and Budka — if the choke is not there.

Why they win
01
Takedown defence

86% takedown defence — 19 of 22 attempts stopped.

02
Takedown accuracy

53%, at 3.13 takedowns per 15 minutes.

03
Submission rate

1.23 attempts per 15 minutes.

04
Experience

13 UFC fights against 4.

05
Common opponent

Decisioned Dylan Budka with 9:20 of control; Bekoev needed five rounds and a split decision.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Feint and change levels

    Do not circle at range where 2.75 output loses to 4.57.

  2. 2
    Small cage after the hands

    The fence is an ally only after the hands are answered.

Path to Victory

Azamat Bekoev

Keep it standing for the first two rounds. Petroski's last two knockout losses were over before a wrestling round existed. 4.57 landed per minute and the Loder and Reese knockouts are the argument. Do not spend the fight in a body lock.

Why they win
01
Output and power

4.57 landed per minute, three knockdowns in four UFC bouts and two round-one knockouts.

02
Age

Five years younger.

03
Pro record

20-5, with 16 finishes.

04
Petroski's skid

0-3 with two early knockouts, four UFC knockout losses in all.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Pressure early

    Punish the level change.

  2. 2
    Do not shoot into a guillotine

    The Gore fight ended that way. His own 63% takedown defence is not 86%.

Danger Zone

How Andre Petroski loses

  • The fight looks like Rowston or Brundage — clipped on the entry before wrestling exists.

  • Bekoev's 28% KO bucket cashes early.

Danger Zone

How Azamat Bekoev loses

  • First level change lands and Petroski finds the neck — Maximov path.

  • Control without the finish banks a Vieira/Budka decision.

  • His 31% striking defence has to hold for fifteen minutes — the least likely of his paths.

Bekoev's hole

31% Striking Defence

6.83 absorbed per minute and both UFC losses by finish keep Petroski live even at 0-3.

31%
Bekoev striking defence
Largest single outcome

28% KO Bucket

Bekoev by KO/TKO is the Rowston path and the Loder path — and the reason conviction is 4.

28%
Bekoev KO/TKO share
Form

Both on Skids

Petroski 0-3. Bekoev 0-2 after 2-0. The lean follows the sheet, narrowly.

The Five-Round Clock

Andre Petroski danger windowAzamat Bekoev danger windowNeutral / contested
R1 · 0:00–5:00Knockout window

Rowston 2:41, Loder 2:44, Reese 3:04 — and ten of Bekoev's 16 career finishes came in round one.

Critical Insight
The clock follows the finish times and per-round numbers: early knockout risk for Petroski, late-round trouble in Bekoev's losses, and distance wins when Petroski wrestles clean.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

05

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things
1

Petroski 55% / Bekoev 45%, conviction 4/10 — grappling sheet over recent knockouts, narrowly.

2

Bekoev KO/TKO 28% is the largest single bucket. Petroski submission and decision are 22% each.

3

Card ranks #56 and #57. Not a title fight.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Petroski KO/TKO — 11%Petroski Decision — 22%Petroski Submission — 22%Bekoev KO/TKO — 28%Bekoev Decision — 12%Bekoev Submission — 5%

Each square = 1 model percentage point. Andre Petroski gold · Azamat Bekoev orange · color opacity: 100% = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Grappling sheet

86% takedown defence and 1.23 submission attempts per 15 against none — Petroski's 22% submission and 22% decision as a pair.

Knockout skid

Bekoev 28% KO is the largest single bucket because Petroski's last two losses were early knockouts.

Defensive hole

31% striking defence and 6.83 absorbed keep Petroski live.

Experience

13 UFC fights against 4.

Fair prices

Fair odds: Petroski −122, Bekoev +122.

Fight Scripts

0%
of simulations

The Clean Entry

Petroski changes levels before the counter, finds the neck — Maximov shape.

Scripted outcomes for Andre Petroski vs Azamat Bekoev — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Andre Petroski win probability
0%
11%
22%
22%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Smaller share — four career stoppages, one in the UFC.

  • Vieira and Budka version if the choke is not there.

  • Maximov fight if the entry is clean — pairs with decision at 44% combined.

Azamat Bekoev win probability
0%
28%
12%
5%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Largest single bucket. Rowston path and Loder path.

  • Only if the 31% defence holds for fifteen minutes.

  • Small because he has no UFC submission attempts. Gore showed he can be the one in the choke.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round
R1
Azamat
R2
Andre
R3
Andre
29-28 Petroski
Survives the open; banks wrestling rounds
Petroski decision 22%
30-27 Petroski
Entries clean all night
The clean grappling night
29-28 Bekoev
Pressure wins minutes without a finish
Bekoev decision 12%

Model and price

Andre Petroski

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
55%
Fair odds
-122
Reference quote
—
Fair decimal odds
1.82
Estimated EV
—
Edge vs no-vig market
—

Azamat Bekoev

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
45%
Fair odds
+122
Reference quote
—
Fair decimal odds
2.22
Estimated EV
—
Edge vs no-vig market
—

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash marks a price without a same-book pair to compare.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Quotes listed with a date but no time are treated as undated.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Andre Petroski

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 1.82 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Azamat Bekoev

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 2.23 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

Petroski by submission (22%, fair +355) and by decision (22%, fair +355) are his two paths, 44% combined; any posted price longer than +355 on either is value by these numbers. Bekoev by KO/TKO (28%, fair +257) is the live contrarian if the skid continues. The fight ends inside the distance 66% of the time (fair −194). Petroski on the moneyline is a bet only at −122 or better.

Conviction
0
4/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

The grappling sheet favors Petroski. The recent knockouts favor Bekoev. The lean follows the sheet, narrowly. Lean: Andre Petroski.

What backs the lean

  • 86% takedown defence against a 3.48 takedown rate

  • 1.23 submission attempts per 15 minutes against none

  • Bekoev's 31% striking defence and 6.83 absorbed

  • 13 UFC fights against 4

What limits it

  • Petroski is 0-3, and two of those losses are early knockouts

  • Bekoev's two UFC wins are both round-one knockouts

  • Bekoev is five years younger and lands more per minute

  • A four-fight defensive rate can be noisy, even when 102-24 against Belgaroui is not noise

Final Assessment

In roughly 55 of 100 readings, Andre Petroski gets the fight to the fence, uses the takedown defence and the choke, and wins by submission (22%) or decision (22%), with a smaller knockout share (11%) that his recent run does not feature.

In the other 45, Azamat Bekoev lands first, the way Rowston and Brundage did, and wins by KO/TKO (28%), with a smaller decision share (12%) and a small submission share (5%).

Petroski 55 / Bekoev 45, conviction 4 out of 10. The grappling sheet favors Petroski. The recent knockouts favor Bekoev. The lean follows the sheet, narrowly.

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