Zach Reese vs Mickey Gall – UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan Fight Analytics & Prediction

PRELIMS · MIDDLEWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan

Zach Reese

“Savage”

10W4L

Wrestling volume, submissions

Mickey Gall

7W7L

Jiu-Jitsu

Reese has to keep the bigger frame working before Gall finds a neck

MiddleweightMeta APEX, Las VegasOctober 31, 2026

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Reese has to make his size count from range, scoring with the jab and kicks and landing takedowns on his terms rather than scrambling with a submission specialist. Gall is moving up from welterweight, so his path is a quick entry to the neck or back before the bigger man settles. The fight turns on who decides where the grappling starts.

Paths that change the fight

Zach ReeseKeep the bigger frame, the 77-inch reach and the takedown volume working as scoring and control before a neck is available.
Mickey GallFind a neck early, before the size and the range gap become the round.

What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 4/10

Six of Gall's seven wins are submissions, and his attempt rate is 1.58 per 15 minutes to Reese's 1.25.
Reese's last result is a Round-1 KO/TKO loss to Ryan Gandra at 1:15.

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Zach Reese

Insufficient price data

Model win probability: 62%
Fair odds: -163

Reference quote: —
Fair decimal odds: 1.61

Mickey Gall

Insufficient price data

Model win probability: 38%
Fair odds: +163

Reference quote: —
Fair decimal odds: 2.63

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Quotes listed with a date but no time are treated as undated.

Sources and data limitations

Career statistics and fight results through October 2026. Win estimates and fair prices are MMA Analytics editorial assessments, not calibrated model outputs.

Model methodology

Read the evidence Inspect prices and assumptions

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Zach Reese (10-4-0) vs. Mickey Gall (7-7-0): Middleweight, 3 five-minute rounds at Meta APEX in Las Vegas. Reese has to keep the bigger frame working before Gall finds a neck. Neither man is ranked. Gall is moving up from welterweight, last listed at 170.8 lb.

Zach Reese

Attribute

Mickey Gall

Age

76+2 in

Height

77+3 in

Reach

45+4 in

Leg Reach

—

Stance

—

War Training Center

Team

Kill Cliff FC

—

Octagon Debut

—

Mixed — wrestling volume and submissions

Fighting Style

Jiu-jitsu

Unranked

Rank

Unranked

—

Last listed weight

170.8 lb

Reese stands 76 inches with a 77-inch reach and a 45-inch leg reach against Gall's 74, 74 and 41, both booked at the 185 lb middleweight limit, with Gall moving up from welterweight.

Venue Factor
Scheduled for 3 five-minute rounds on the prelims at Meta APEX in Las Vegas. The round scenarios below are tactical questions, not statistical forecasts.

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Zach Reese

Pro Record

10-4-0 (1 NC)

UFC Record

—

Streak

Lost last two

Finish Rate

80% of wins (8 of 10) — 5 KO/TKO, 3 submissions

Avg Fight Time

—

Chin · Not rated — a Round-1 KO/TKO loss in his last fiveSOS · Not ratedMixed — wrestling volume and submissions

Reese enters at 10-4-0 with the nickname Savage. His last five results are a first-round KO/TKO loss to Ryan Gandra at 1:15 on UFC 329, a split-decision loss to Michel Pereira, a Round-2 submission of Jack McVey at 1:38, a Round-1 no-contest with Sedriques Dumas at 0:51, and a unanimous decision over Dusko Todorovic. The Dumas bout is an NC and is not part of the 10-4-0. He trains at War Training Center. This booking is three rounds.

Mickey Gall

Pro Record

7-7-0

UFC Record

—

Streak

Lost last four

Finish Rate

86% of wins (6 of 7) — 6 submissions

Avg Fight Time

—

Chin · Not rated — Round-1 KO/TKO losses in his last fiveSOS · Not ratedJiu-jitsu

Gall enters at 7-7-0, unranked, moving up from welterweight. He was last listed at 170.8 lb and the bout is booked at 185. He trains at Kill Cliff FC, and his style is jiu-jitsu. His wins: zero KO/TKO, six submissions and one decision. His last five results end with a first-round KO/TKO loss to Ramiz Brahimaj at 2:55 on UFC 309, and the only win in that window is the oldest: a Round-1 submission of Jordan Williams at 2:57.

Zach Reese

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Knockdown Exchange

Knockdowns dealt vs absorbed.

Mickey Gall

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Zach Reesesignature weapons

KO/TKO winsFive of his ten career wins.

×5

Submission winsThree of ten career wins, including a Round-2 submission of Jack McVey at 1:38.

×3

Mickey Gallsignature weapons

Submission winsSix of seven career wins, including a Round-1 submission of Jordan Williams at 2:57.

×6

KO/TKO winsZero knockout wins. The 0.29 knockdowns per 15 minutes is a rate, not a win total.

×0

Zach Reese

Ryan Gandra

KO/TKO 1:15

Opponent context: ufc

R1 (1:15)

UFC 329 — Jul 11, 2026

Michel Pereira

Decision — split

Opponent context: ufc

UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez — Feb 21, 2026

Jack McVey

Submission 1:38

Opponent context: ufc

R2 (1:38)

Nov 8, 2025

Sedriques Dumas

No contest 0:51

Opponent context: ufc

R1 (0:51)

Sep 13, 2025

Duško Todorović

Decision — unanimous

Opponent context: ufc

UFC on ESPN: Gamrot vs. Klein — May 31, 2025

Pattern

Newest first: a Round-1 KO/TKO loss to Ryan Gandra at 1:15 (UFC 329), a split-decision loss to Michel Pereira, a Round-2 submission of Jack McVey at 1:38, a Round-1 no-contest with Sedriques Dumas at 0:51, and a unanimous decision over Dusko Todorovic. The NC is not part of the 10-4-0.

Mickey Gall

Ramiz Brahimaj

KO/TKO 2:55

Opponent context: ufc

R1 (2:55)

UFC 309 — Nov 16, 2024

Bassil Hafez

Decision — unanimous

Opponent context: ufc

UFC 302 — Jun 1, 2024

Mike Malott

KO/TKO 3:41

Opponent context: ufc

R1 (3:41)

Apr 9, 2022

Alex Morono

Decision — unanimous

Opponent context: ufc

UFC on ESPN: Font vs. Aldo — Dec 4, 2021

Jordan Williams

Submission 2:57

Opponent context: ufc

R1 (2:57)

Jul 24, 2021

Pattern

Newest first: a Round-1 KO/TKO loss to Ramiz Brahimaj at 2:55 (UFC 309), a unanimous-decision loss to Bassil Hafez, a Round-1 KO/TKO loss to Mike Malott at 3:41, a unanimous-decision loss to Alex Morono, and a Round-1 submission of Jordan Williams at 2:57. The only win in this window is the oldest result. None of these five opponents appears in Reese's last five.

Zach Reese

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Mickey Gall

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Critical Insight
Reese: 5 KO/TKOs, 3 submissions and 2 decisions in 10 professional wins. All eight of Reese's finishes came inside the first two rounds, seven in round one. Gall: 0 KO/TKOs, 6 submissions and 1 decision in 7 professional wins. All six of Gall's finishes came inside the first two rounds, five in round one. The round bars count every professional win, with decisions in the DEC column.

Opposition strength (no shared opponents)

Without a reliable shared-opponent table, compare who each fighter has been tested against using SOS tier, UFC sample size, and recent elite-tier form — not raw records alone.

Factor	Zach	Mickey
Strength of schedule (SOS tier)	Not rated — His last five opponents are named in the form guide.	Not rated — His last five opponents are named in the form guide.
UFC sample	—	—
Recent ranked / elite touches (last 5)	0 elite · 0 veteran tier	0 elite · 0 veteran tier
Form-window tier points tied in the last-five sample — compare SOS notes and methods, not volume alone.
Last three opponents	Ryan Gandra, Michel Pereira, Jack McVey	Ramiz Brahimaj, Bassil Hafez, Mike Malott

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and UFC experience before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

SLpM 25% · StrAcc 30% · StrDef 30% · SApM 15%

0.0

Zach

0.0

Mickey

Editorial, not a division rank. SLpM and SApM are scaled on a ceiling of 8. SApM is inverted so higher absorption does not add points. Accuracy and defence enter as percentages. Reese: 55.9, 54, 44, 50 → 50.9. Gall: 43.8, 50, 50, 41 → 47.1.

Grappling

TD/15 25% · TDAcc 25% · TDDef 30% · Sub/15 20%

0.0

Zach

0.0

Mickey

Editorial. TD/15 is scaled on a ceiling of 10 and Sub/15 on a ceiling of 3. Accuracy and defence enter as percentages. Reese's takedown accuracy enters as 0, which holds this gauge down. Reese: 27.4, 0, 52, 41.7 → 30.8. Gall: 11.5, 16, 38, 52.7 → 28.8.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

0.0

Zach

0.0

Mickey

Average of the two editorial gauges only. Reese 40.8, Gall 37.9. No extra inputs.

Metric	Zach	Mickey
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	6:33	8:03
Pace Tier	SLpM 4.47	SLpM 3.50
R3/R1 OutputR3/R1 OutputThird-round output as % of first-round output. Above 100% = builds into the fight; below = fades.	167% (23.0 vs 13.8 sig)	159% (21.0 vs 13.2 sig)
Slow Start %Slow Start %Share of fights where the fighter starts below their usual pace. 0% = fast starter every time.	67% (out-landed in 6 of 9 UFC first rounds)	62% (out-landed in 8 of 13 UFC first rounds)
Champ RoundsChamp RoundsEvidence from rounds 4-5 — only fighters with five-round experience have data here.	3-round bout	3-round bout

Archetype Base Rate

Wrestling volume and submissions 62%38% Jiu-jitsu

— · The 62 figure is the editorial handicap, not a historical wrestler-versus-jiu-jitsu win rate.

Zach ReeseMickey Gall

Middleweight

These values describe each fighter; no division rank is assigned.

Stat	Zach	Mickey
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	4.47	3.50
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	54% (269/495)	50% (366/738)
Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit.	44%	50%
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	4.00	4.72
KD AvgKD AvgKnockdown Average — knockdowns scored per 15 minutes. The one-shot power indicator.	0.25 per 15 min	0.29 per 15 min
Damage RatioDamage RatioSignificant strikes landed divided by significant strikes absorbed. Above 1 means more landed than absorbed; compare with the division average shown in this table. Strike counts do not measure damage severity.	—	—
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	2.74	1.15
TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed.	52%	38%
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	1.25	1.58
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	—	—

Statistical Verdict
These rows are each fighter's career rates, without a division rank. Gall's takedown accuracy is 16% on 4 of 25. Knockdown cells are rates per 15 minutes, not career totals.

Zach Reese

Mickey Gall

Critical Insight
Both men have early stoppage losses in their last five: Reese at 1:15 of round 1 against Ryan Gandra, Gall at 2:55 of round 1 against Ramiz Brahimaj.

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much

Open SpaceZach owns it

Editorial read from the 3-inch reach and 4-inch leg-reach gaps, plus the higher significant-strike rate.

Pocket / ExchangesEven

Gall's striking defence is 50% to Reese's 44%, and Gall absorbs 4.72 per minute to 4.00.

ClinchEven

The phase is left even rather than assigned.

GroundEven

Reese's takedown volume is 2.74 per 15 minutes against 38% takedown defence. Gall's win ledger is six submissions. Those facts pull in opposite directions, so the phase stays even.

The Deep Read

Reese is booked at 76 inches, with a 77-inch reach and a 45-inch leg reach. Gall is booked at 74, 74 and 41, moving up from a last listed weight of 170.8 lb into a 185 lb bout. Reese has to keep the bigger frame working before Gall finds a neck. The listed tools on Reese's side are wrestling volume and submissions: 2.74 takedowns per 15 minutes, 1.25 submission attempts per 15 minutes, five KO/TKO wins and three submission wins. Gall's listed tool is jiu-jitsu: six of seven wins are submissions, 1.58 attempts per 15 minutes, and zero KO/TKO wins.

Reese lands 4.47 significant strikes per minute at 54% accuracy on 269 of 495, with 44% striking defence and 4.00 absorbed per minute. Gall is at 3.50, 50% on 366 of 738, 50% defence and 4.72 absorbed. Reese lands more. Gall's defence percentage is higher, and he is hit more often. Gall's takedown accuracy is 16% on 4 of 25, with 38% takedown defence. None of their last five opponents overlap.

Reese's last two results are losses: Ryan Gandra by KO/TKO at 1:15 of round 1 on UFC 329, then Michel Pereira by split decision. Before that sit the Jack McVey submission, a Round-1 no-contest with Sedriques Dumas at 0:51, and a unanimous decision over Dusko Todorovic. Gall's last fight was on November 16, 2024, a Round-1 KO/TKO loss to Ramiz Brahimaj at 2:55 on UFC 309. The older results in his last five are decision losses to Bassil Hafez and Alex Morono, a Round-1 KO/TKO loss to Mike Malott at 3:41, and a Round-1 submission of Jordan Williams. Reese trains at War Training Center; Gall trains at Kill Cliff FC.

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan event poster.

Path to Victory

Zach Reese

Keep the bigger frame, the 77-inch reach and the takedown volume working as scoring and control before a neck is available.

Why they win

Booked frame

76 inches to 74, a 77-inch reach to 74, and a 45-inch leg reach to 41. The tagline starts from that sheet.

Takedown volume

2.74 takedowns per 15 minutes against Gall's 38% takedown defence. Gall's own takedown accuracy is 16% on 4 of 25.

Strike rate

4.47 significant strikes landed per minute at 54% accuracy (269 of 495), against 3.50 at 50% (366 of 738).

Division listing and weight

Neither man is ranked. Reese is booked at 185; Gall is moving up from welterweight, last listed at 170.8 lb.

More than one win route

His wins: 5 KO/TKO, 3 submissions and 2 decisions. His last five results include both a submission of Jack McVey and a decision over Dusko Todorovic.

The gameplan

1
Range
Use the reach and leg-reach gaps to score while Gall is still covering ground.
2
Level change
Treat a level change as a threat that has to be finished into control, not as a gift of the neck.
3
After the shot
If a takedown lands, make the bigger frame do work. Control without offence is not assumed to win the round.
4
Round 1
Bank the first round. The Gandra result ended at 1:15, and this fight is only three rounds.
5
Decision route
A knockout is not required for the lean. Two of the ten wins are decisions, including the unanimous decision over Dusko Todorovic.

Path to Victory

Mickey Gall

Find a neck early, before the size and the range gap become the round.

Why they win

Submission ledger

Six of seven wins are submissions, and the attempt rate is 1.58 per 15 minutes against Reese's 1.25.

Jiu-jitsu label

His style is jiu-jitsu, and he has zero KO/TKO wins, so his win route is the neck, not a knockout.

Striking defence on the sheet

50% striking defence against Reese's 44%. He also absorbs more, 4.72 per minute to 4.00. Those are different measurements.

Early grappling in the handicap

If the grappling lands early and the size gap does not show up, Reese's lean falls toward 52% and Gall's share rises toward 48%.

A finish does not require his own takedown chain

A 16% takedown conversion (4 of 25) is not a high-volume shot profile. Six submission wins say the finishes have come anyway.

The gameplan

1
Close the reach
Close the three-inch reach gap with a purpose. He has zero KO/TKO wins, so a striking match is not his route.
2
The neck
When Reese changes levels, hunt the submission rather than accepting a long minute with no attempt.
3
Do not pretend to be the wrestler
His takedown accuracy is 4 of 25. That is not a high-conversion shot chain; his wins come by submission.
4
The weight move
The size gap is the problem to solve early. He was last listed at 170.8 lb and the booking is 185.
5
Do not wait
If the range is not closing, change the entry inside the round. Waiting is the version in which Reese moves toward 72%.

Danger Zone

How Zach Reese loses

Gall's grappling lands early and the size gap does not show up. That is the version in which Reese falls toward 52%.
An early stoppage arrives before the takedown volume matters, as it did against Ryan Gandra at 1:15 of round 1.
Entries keep putting a neck in front of a fighter with six submission wins and 1.58 submission attempts per 15 minutes.

Danger Zone

How Mickey Gall loses

The reach and the takedown volume keep him at range or in controlled positions for three rounds. That is the version in which Reese rises toward 72%.
He closes distance and still cannot turn the contact into a submission, leaving the minutes to the higher significant-strike rate.
The move to 185 shows up as the height, reach and leg-reach gaps, and the jiu-jitsu never attaches.

The tagline

The frame has to work first

Two inches of height, three of reach and four of leg reach are the physical case for Reese. They matter only if they score before Gall attaches.

77 to 74

reach, inches

Career rates

Volume against a low takedown defence

Reese averages 2.74 takedowns per 15 minutes. Gall's takedown defence is 38%, and Gall's own accuracy is 4 of 25.

2.74

Reese takedowns per 15 minutes

Career win methods

Gall's wins are submissions

Six of seven wins are submissions and zero are knockouts. That is why his forecast share is 22% submission and only 4% KO/TKO.

6 of 7

career wins by submission

Not a chin grade

Both recent records include early stoppage losses

Reese lost to Ryan Gandra at 1:15 of round 1. Gall lost to Ramiz Brahimaj at 2:55 of round 1 and to Mike Malott at 3:41 of round 1.

1:15

Gandra KO/TKO time

Nothing to bridge

No shared opponent

The ten opponents in their last five fights do not overlap, so no common-opponent comparison is drawn and no transitive ranking is claimed.

The Five-Round Clock

Zach Reese danger windowMickey Gall danger windowNeutral / contested

R1 · 0:00–5:00The size has to show up before a neck

Both men have first-round stoppage losses in their last five. This is a three-round fight, so a slow start is expensive for either man.

Critical Insight
Reese falls toward 52% if Gall's grappling lands early and the size gap does not show up; he rises toward 72% if the reach and takedown volume keep Gall at range. The complementary range for Mickey Gall is 28–48%.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things

Reese has to keep the bigger frame working before Gall finds a neck.

Editorial handicap: Zach Reese 62% / Mickey Gall 38%. Fair prices are -163 / +163, decimal 1.61 / 2.63. No market quote is claimed.

Reese falls toward 52% if Gall's grappling lands early and the size gap does not show up, and rises toward 72% if reach and takedown volume keep Gall at range. Conviction is 4/10.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Zach Reese · Decision — 24%Zach Reese · Submission — 16%Zach Reese · KO/TKO — 22%Mickey Gall · KO/TKO — 4%Mickey Gall · Decision — 12%Mickey Gall · Submission — 22%

Each square = 1 model percentage point. Zach Reese gold · Mickey Gall orange · color opacity: 100% = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

The booked frame

Height 76 to 74, reach 77 to 74, leg reach 45 to 41. Gall's last listed weight is 170.8 lb and the bout is 185.

Takedown volume against takedown defence

Reese 2.74 per 15 minutes, Gall 38% defence and 16% accuracy on 4 of 25.

Who finds the neck

Gall has 6 submission wins out of 7 and 1.58 attempts per 15 minutes. Reese has 3 submission wins and 1.25 attempts per 15 minutes.

The first round already on the ledger

Gandra stopped Reese at 1:15 of round 1. Brahimaj stopped Gall at 2:55 of round 1 and Malott stopped him at 3:41 of round 1.

Why conviction is 4/10

No common opponent links them and no market quote is claimed, so the read rests on frame, rates and win methods. Conviction is 4/10.

Fight Scripts

of simulations

The frame scores

Reese's decision share. Range and takedown volume win rounds without a finish. Two of his ten career wins are decisions, including Dusko Todorovic.

Scripted outcomes for Zach Reese vs Mickey Gall — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Zach Reese win probability

22%

24%

16%

KO/TKODECSUB

Five career KO/TKO wins are a real route. The share stays at 22% because the knockdown rate is 0.25 per 15 minutes and the Gandra loss shows an early KO/TKO can go the other way.
The largest Reese share. If the frame and the takedown volume score without a finish, a three-round decision is the principal route. Two of his ten wins are decisions.
Three career submission wins and 1.25 attempts per 15 minutes. The share stays below the decision because Gall is the more submission-oriented fighter on the win ledger.

Mickey Gall win probability

12%

22%

KO/TKODECSUB

Gall has zero KO/TKO wins. A 0.29 knockdown rate per 15 minutes does not overturn that count.
One decision win in his career. Possible over three rounds, and smaller than the submission route.
The principal Gall route. Six submission wins, a jiu-jitsu style label, and 1.58 submission attempts per 15 minutes.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round

Even

Not projected

No round winner is assigned

Not a scorecard

Not projected

Three-round bout; rounds 4 and 5 are not scheduled

Not a scorecard

Not projected

A late takedown or a late flurry is not assumed to erase earlier scoring

Not a scorecard

Model and price

Zach Reese: -163 · Mickey Gall: +163

Fair American prices of the editorial 62/38 handicap. Decimal prices are 1.61 and 2.63. They are arithmetic break-even prices without bookmaker margin. No market quote is claimed. They are not a betting recommendation.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

No market quote is claimed, so no value bet is asserted. The fair prices are Reese -163 (decimal 1.61) and Gall +163 (decimal 2.63).

Conviction

4/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Confidence reflects the quality and comparability of the evidence, not the size of the 62% lean. Lean: Zach Reese.

What backs the lean

Booked size, a 77-inch reach to 74, and 2.74 takedowns per 15 minutes against 38% takedown defence.
Gall is moving up from welterweight, last listed at 170.8 lb, with zero KO/TKO wins.
Reese's significant-strike rate is higher: 4.47 at 54% against 3.50 at 50%.

What limits it

Six of Gall's seven wins are submissions, and his attempt rate is 1.58 per 15 minutes to Reese's 1.25.
Reese's last result is a Round-1 KO/TKO loss to Ryan Gandra at 1:15.

Final Assessment

Zach Reese 62% / Mickey Gall 38%. Zach Reese is the editorial selection. The lean follows the booked size, the reach and a takedown rate of 2.74 per 15 minutes against Gall's 38% takedown defence, with Gall moving up from a last listed weight of 170.8 lb. Mickey Gall retains 38% because six of his seven wins are submissions and his submission-attempt rate is 1.58 per 15 minutes against Reese's 1.25. Fair prices are -163 / +163, decimal 1.61 / 2.63. No market quote is claimed.

Reese falls toward 52% if Gall's grappling lands early and the size gap does not show up; he rises toward 72% if the reach and takedown volume keep Gall at range. The complementary range for Mickey Gall is 28–48%. These are judgment-based scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals. The distance remains three rounds. Editorial conviction is 4/10.

Reese trains at War Training Center and Gall at Kill Cliff FC. The probabilities are a subjective editorial handicap, not a calibrated model.

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