Julian Erosa vs Jeong Yeong Lee: analysis & prediction

PRELIM · FEATHERWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan
Julian Erosa — Featherweight fighter

Julian Erosa

“Juicy J”
31W13L
Scramble Finisher
VS
Jeong Yeong Lee — Featherweight fighter

Jeong Yeong Lee

“Korean Tiger”
11W3L
Careful Striker

A finisher's lean — with a knockout loss fresh on the favourite's record

FeatherweightMeta APEX, Las VegasOctober 31, 202625ft Octagon (Small Cage)

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Erosa fights at a first-round pace in both directions: his recent nights have mostly ended in the opening round, the wins coming from guillotines out of scrambles or sudden flurries on the feet. Lee is the more careful man and absorbs far less, so he has to survive that storm and make Erosa lead and miss. A calm, technical fight builds Lee's case; an early scramble is Erosa's.

Paths that change the fight

  • Julian ErosaForce a first-round scramble. Guillotine or strikes — the Rodriguez/Ramos/Elkins window — before a younger man can make it a clean kickboxing round.
  • Jeong Yeong LeeSurvive round one, keep the fight off the fence and the mat, use the lower absorption, and steal a decision the way Santos just did to him — which means he has to be better than he was in that fight.
What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 4/10
  • Erosa was knocked out by Douglas in March and has absorbed 10 knockdowns in the UFC
  • 6.23 absorbed against 3.80

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Julian Erosa

Quote age unknown
Model win probability
57%
Fair odds
-133
Reference quote
+140 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds
1.75

Jeong Yeong Lee

Quote age unknown
Model win probability
43%
Fair odds
+133
Reference quote
-165 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds
2.33
Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Quotes listed with a date but no time are treated as undated.

Sources and data limitations

Career statistics and fight results through September 2026. Composite scores, win probabilities and fair prices are MMA Analytics model outputs.

Model methodology
Read the evidenceInspect prices and assumptions
01

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Three-round featherweight preliminary bout in the 25-foot APEX cage. Julian "Juicy J" Erosa (31-13, 9-9 in the UFC) is 37 and coming off a round-one knockout loss to Lerryan Douglas on March 28, 2026. He lands 6.06 significant strikes a minute and absorbs 6.23, has 14 career submissions and averages 0.74 submission attempts per 15 minutes — and he has been knocked down 10 times in 18 UFC bouts. JeongYeong "Korean Tiger" Lee (11-3) is 30 and 2-2 in the UFC: the Road to UFC final win over Yi Zha, a decision over Blake Bilder, a 65-second stoppage by Hyder Amil and a decision loss to Daniel Santos. He lands 3.17 a minute, absorbs 3.80, and opponents have controlled him for 4:56 per UFC bout. We take Erosa 57% / Lee 43% at conviction 4 / 10.

Julian Erosa
Attribute
Jeong Yeong Lee
37
Age
7-year gap30
6'1"+3" Erosa
Height
5'10"
74.5"+1" Erosa
Reach
73.5"
41"
Leg Reach
39.5"
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Xtreme Couture
Team
Fight Ready
Dec 11, 2015
Octagon Debut
Jun 10, 2022
9-9 (18 bouts)
UFC record
2-2 (4 bouts)
#20
Card Rank
#65
Striker, BJJ black belt
Fighting Style
BJJ, three career armbars

Erosa is the bigger featherweight: +3" in height, +1" in reach (74.5" to 73.5") and +1.5" in leg reach. Erosa is southpaw; Lee is orthodox. Lee is seven years younger. Erosa has 18 UFC bouts; Lee has four, including the Road to UFC final.

Venue Factor
A 25-foot cage compresses a three-inch height edge. Erosa's UFC fights average 7:50 and his wins and losses both tend to arrive early. Lee's UFC fights average 11:31, and the one that ended early was the 65-second loss to Amil.
02

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Julian Erosa celebrating in the Octagon with his arms raised

Julian Erosa

Pro Record
31-13-0
UFC Record
9-9 (18 UFC bouts)
Streak
Two straight losses — KO to Douglas (Mar 2026), UD to Costa
Finish Rate
84% (26 of 31 wins) — 14 submissions, 12 KO/TKO
Avg Fight Time
7:50
Chin · Stopped by strikes seven times in the UFC, most recently by Lerryan Douglas in March 2026, and knocked down 10 times in 18 UFC bouts — six of them in round one.SOS · DeepScramble finisher

Erosa finishes almost everyone he beats and gets finished often himself: 26 of 31 wins came inside the distance, and seven of his nine UFC losses were knockouts. His recent wins are Elkins by elbow and punches (R1 4:15) and Rodriguez and Ramos by guillotine (both round one); the losses around them are Costa by decision and Douglas by knockout. 77.7% of his UFC strikes land at distance and 6.1% on the ground — the submissions arrive out of scrambles, not from a top-control diet.

JeongYeong Lee having his hand raised by the referee after a win

Jeong Yeong Lee

Pro Record
11-3-0
UFC Record
2-2 (4 UFC bouts, including the Road to UFC final)
Streak
Two straight losses — Santos by decision, Amil by first-round stoppage
Finish Rate
64% (7 of 11 wins) — 4 KO/TKO, 3 armbars
Avg Fight Time
11:31
Chin · Stopped once, by Hyder Amil at 1:05 of round one in 2024. Not knocked down in four UFC bouts.SOS · Early UFC careerCareful striker / armbar résumé

All three of Lee's submissions are armbars and five of his seven finishes came in round one, but none of that has shown up in the UFC: no submission attempts and no knockdowns in four bouts. He absorbs far less than Erosa (3.80 to 6.23 per minute) and lands far less (3.17 to 6.06). The number that follows him is control: Yi Zha, Bilder and Santos held him for 8:19, 5:18 and 6:06, even though he stopped 31 of the 42 takedowns tried against him.

Julian Erosa
0 dealt · 0 absorbed
Knockdown Exchange
Knockdowns dealt vs absorbed.
Jeong Yeong Lee
0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Julian Erosasignature weapons

Front-headlock chokesFour brabo chokes (Jourdain and Woodson, both in round three, in the UFC) and two guillotines (Ramos R1 2:15, Rodriguez R1 4:49).
×6
KnockoutsTwelve career KO/TKO wins; in the UFC, a flying knee on Landwehr (R1 0:56) and elbow and punches on Elkins (R1 4:15).
×12
Triangles and armbarsThree triangle chokes and three armbars, all before the UFC.
×6

Jeong Yeong Leesignature weapons

ArmbarXie Bin (R1 0:36, Road to UFC 2022), Kyung Yui Cho (R1 0:18) and Se Yoon Kwon (R2). No submission attempts in four UFC bouts.
×3
KnockoutLu Kai (R1 0:42), Park Hae Jin (R1 0:10), Se Young Kim (R1) and Marcio Cesar (R2, doctor stoppage).
×4

Julian Erosa

L
Lerryan Douglas
KO — punches

Opponent context: prospect

R1 (3:33)
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer — Mar 28, 2026
L
Melquizael Costa
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: veteran

R3
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales — May 17, 2025
W
Darren Elkins
TKO — elbow and punches

Opponent context: veteran

R1 (4:15)
UFC 314 — Apr 12, 2025
W
Christian Rodriguez
Submission — guillotine choke

Opponent context: prospect

R1 (4:49)
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez — Jul 13, 2024
W
Ricardo Ramos
Submission — guillotine choke

Opponent context: veteran

R1 (2:15)
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas — Mar 23, 2024
Pattern

3-2, and four of the five ended in round one. The Costa loss is the only distance fight in the five. Current form is two straight losses, the last one a knockout.

Jeong Yeong Lee

L
Daniel Santos
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: prospect

R3
UFC 315 — May 10, 2025
L
Hyder Amil
TKO — punches

Opponent context: prospect

R1 (1:05)
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba — Jul 20, 2024
W
Blake Bilder
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: prospect

R3
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov — Feb 3, 2024
W
Yi Zha
Decision — Split (Road to UFC final)

Opponent context: prospect

R3
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac — Feb 4, 2023
W
Lu Kai
KO — punches

Opponent context: ufc adjacent

R1 (0:42)
Road to UFC semifinal — Oct 23, 2022
Pattern

3-2 across the last five and 1-2 in the last three. The three wins before the skid were a first-round Road to UFC knockout, a split decision in the tournament final and a decision over Bilder; the losses are a decision and a first-round stoppage.

Julian Erosa

Win Methods
Wins by Round

Jeong Yeong Lee

Win Methods
Wins by Round
Critical Insight
Erosa: 12 knockouts, 14 submissions and 5 decisions in 31 wins, with his finishes spread across round one (9), round two (10) and round three or later (7). Lee: 4 knockouts, 3 armbars and 4 decisions in 11 wins; five of his seven finishes came in round one. The round bars count every professional win.

Opposition strength (no shared opponents)

Without a reliable shared-opponent table, compare who each fighter has been tested against using SOS tier, UFC sample size, and recent elite-tier form — not raw records alone.

FactorJulianJeong
Strength of schedule (SOS tier)Deep — UFC wins over Darren Elkins, Charles Jourdain, Hakeem Dawodu and Sean Woodson; losses to Grant Dawson, Alex Caceres, Melquizael Costa and Lerryan Douglas.Early UFC career — UFC results: W Yi Zha (Road to UFC final, split decision), W Blake Bilder, L Hyder Amil, L Daniel Santos.
UFC sample9-9 (18 UFC bouts)2-2 (4 UFC bouts, including the Road to UFC final)
Recent ranked / elite touches (last 5)0 elite · 3 veteran tier0 elite · 0 veteran tier
Form-window difficulty edge: Fighter A (8 vs 4 tier points in listed bouts).
Last three opponentsLerryan Douglas, Melquizael Costa, Darren ElkinsDaniel Santos, Hyder Amil, Blake Bilder
03

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and UFC experience before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

Output, accuracy, defence and absorption

0
Julian
0
Jeong

Erosa lands 6.06 and absorbs 6.23 per minute at 48% accuracy and 49% defence. Lee lands 3.17 and absorbs 3.80 at 49% and 51%.

Grappling

Takedowns, takedown defence and submission rate

0
Julian
0
Jeong

Erosa: 1.81 takedowns per 15 at 45%, 0.74 submission attempts per 15, 14 career submissions. Lee: 0.65 per 15 on three attempts, 74% takedown defence, no UFC submission attempts.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

0
Julian
0
Jeong

Technical lean to Erosa on finishing toolkit and experience.

MetricJulianJeong
Striking accuracy48% (855/1,783)49% (146/299)
Standing / clinch / ground77.7% / 16.3% / 6.1%74.0% / 14.4% / 11.6%
Knockdowns absorbed (UFC)10 in 18 bouts0 in 4 bouts
Control per UFC bout (own / opponents')1:12 / 1:051:21 / 4:56
UFC bouts184

Archetype Base Rate

Scramble Finisher 57%43% Careful Striker

Matchup-specific read — 57/43 · The lean is experience and a finishing toolkit, not a statement that Erosa is hard to hit. 6.23 absorbed per minute and 10 knockdowns absorbed say so.

Julian ErosaJeong Yeong Lee

Featherweight

· 48 fighters

Rank bars use the recorded division cohort. Where no rank is shown, the comparison shows the difference from the published division average; the white marker denotes equality. Percentage differences are percentage points (pp). Higher is not always better: fewer strikes absorbed is preferable.

StatJulianJulian comparisonDiv avgJeong comparisonJeong
SLpM6.06
10/48
4.57
39/48
3.17
Str Acc48%
28/48
49.2%
24/48
49%
Str Def49%
38/48
54.0%
31/48
51%
SApM6.23
43/48
4.08
22/48
3.80
KD/150.11
35/48
0.44
37/48
0.00
Damage Ratio0.97
33/48
1.19
40/48
0.83
TD/151.81
17/48
1.58
37/48
0.65
TD Acc45%
15/48
36.1%
4/48few UFC fights
67%
TD Def62%
32/48
68.4%
15/48
74%
Sub/150.74
15/48
0.52
39/48
0.00
UFC bouts18
—
—
—
4
Statistical Verdict
Erosa's 6.06 landed per minute is 10th of 48 and his 0.74 submission attempts per 15 are 15th; his 6.23 absorbed is 43rd. Lee is 22nd in absorption and 15th in takedown defence, but 39th in output with no UFC submission attempts. Erosa throws a fight; Lee throws a careful one. The absorption gap is the tax Erosa pays for his volume, and the submission gap is why he is still the lean.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

Control Time per Round (sec)

Julian Erosa

  • His output builds after the first: 20.9 significant strikes in an average first round, 31.4 in the second and 24.4 in the third, across 18, 9 and 8 rounds.
  • Opponents keep pace — 20.3, 32.7 and 27.3 landed on him in the same rounds — and six of the ten knockdowns he has absorbed in the UFC came in round one.
  • Round three is his takedown round: 10 of 17 attempts landed, with 62 seconds of control on average.

Jeong Yeong Lee

  • He is out-landed in the average round: 15.3 to 21.5 in the first, 17.3 to 18.0 in the second, 11.0 to 11.7 in the third.
  • Opponents have controlled him for about two minutes of every round: 1:56, 1:54 and 2:05.
  • His ground share rises to 23.1% of his strikes in round two and 15.2% in round three.
Critical Insight
Erosa's numbers point to a first-round scramble, or a volume fight in which opponents match him strike for strike late. Lee's point to a man who survives rounds but gives up control. If Lee cannot stop the clinch-and-takedown phases, his lower absorption never gets to decide the fight.

Strike targeting

Julian

Head
66%
Body
24%
Legs
10%

Jeong

Head
64%
Body
26%
Legs
10%

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

JulianJeong
78%Distance74%
16%Clinch14%
6%Ground12%

Share of significant strikes landed at distance, in the clinch and on the ground across each fighter's UFC rounds, weighted by strike volume.

04

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much
Open SpaceJulian owns it

6.06 landed per minute against 3.17 — volume if it stays standing

Pocket / ExchangesJeong owns it

Erosa has been knocked down 10 times in 18 UFC bouts; Lee has not been knocked down in the UFC

ClinchJulian owns it

Scramble entries into front-headlock chokes — six of his 14 submissions are brabos and guillotines

GroundJulian owns it

0.74 submission attempts per 15 and 14 career submissions; Lee has none in the UFC and concedes 4:56 of control per bout

The Deep Read

Erosa is the more dangerous finisher and the more knockable man: 26 career finishes, and 10 knockdowns absorbed in 18 UFC bouts. Lee is younger, ranked much lower, and has lost two in a row, one of them in 65 seconds. The lean is experience and a finishing toolkit, not a statement that Erosa is hard to hit.

Lee's case is the careful fight, and the careful fights have not gone his way lately: Santos out-landed him 90 to 68 and held him down for 6:06. A 57% favourite who was knocked out in his last fight does not get a conviction above 4.

Path to Victory

Julian Erosa

Force a first-round scramble. Guillotine or strikes — the Rodriguez/Ramos/Elkins window — before a younger man can make it a clean kickboxing round.

Why they win
01
Submission toolkit

14 submission wins and 0.74 attempts per 15 minutes.

02
Output

6.06 significant strikes a minute against 3.17.

03
Size

+3" height and +1" reach.

04
Experience

18 UFC bouts against 4.

05
R1 finishing habit

Still showed up against Elkins, Rodriguez and Ramos.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    High pace immediately

    Look for the neck on level changes — his UFC fights average under eight minutes for a reason.

  2. 2
    Do not give a quiet first five

    The open is where his wins live.

Path to Victory

Jeong Yeong Lee

Survive round one, keep the fight off the fence and the mat, use the lower absorption, and steal a decision the way Santos just did to him — which means he has to be better than he was in that fight.

Why they win
01
Age

30 versus 37.

02
Absorption

3.80 absorbed per minute against 6.23.

03
Takedown defence

74% takedown defence, 31 of 42 attempts stopped.

04
Erosa's skid

Knocked out in March and lost a decision the fight before.

05
Erosa's chin

Knocked down 10 times in 18 UFC bouts, six of them in round one.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Footwork

    Don't blitz into a guillotine; make Erosa lead and miss.

  2. 2
    Patient has to include offence

    The Santos loss says a patient fight can go against him too.

  3. 3
    Stay off the fence

    Opponents have controlled him for about two minutes a round; he cannot give Erosa clinch-and-scramble phases.

Danger Zone

How Julian Erosa loses

  • Lee finds the chin that Douglas found — the 16% KO path is real.

  • A careful fifteen minutes in which Erosa is out-landed late, the way Costa out-landed him 102 to 69.

  • An armbar scramble if Erosa shoots careless.

Danger Zone

How Jeong Yeong Lee loses

  • First-round guillotine or strikes end it before he settles.

  • He has already been finished in a minute in the UFC.

  • Erosa's 18-bout résumé and finishing habit simply overwhelm a 2-2 UFC record.

Both directions

Round-One Heavy

Four of Erosa's last five ended in round one. Lee's Amil loss was 1:05 of round one. Inside-the-distance share is 71%.

71%
Inside-the-distance in the 100-fight split
Why conviction is 4

Chin Tax

Seven of Erosa's nine UFC losses were knockouts. Lee has one UFC stoppage loss and absorbs 3.80 per minute to Erosa's 6.23.

10
knockdowns Erosa has absorbed in 18 UFC bouts
Lee's grappling résumé vs his UFC fights

Armbars Not Showing

Three career armbars and no submission attempts in four UFC bouts; opponents have controlled him for 4:56 per bout.

0
Lee submission attempts in the UFC

The Five-Round Clock

Julian Erosa danger windowJeong Yeong Lee danger windowNeutral / contested
R1 · 0:00–5:00Both men's window

Nine of Erosa's finishes came in round one, and six of the knockdowns he has absorbed. Five of Lee's seven finishes came in round one; Amil stopped him at 1:05.

Critical Insight
The fight is front-loaded. Survive the open and Lee's absorption case grows. Fail the open and Erosa's submission or strike buckets cash.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

05

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things
1

Erosa 57% / Lee 43%, conviction 4/10 — finishing toolkit over a 2-2 UFC record, capped by the March knockout loss.

2

Inside the distance 71%. Erosa submission 24% is the largest bucket; Lee KO 16% is the live hedge.

3

Card ranks #20 and #65. Erosa enters at 31-13 with seven UFC knockout losses.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Erosa Submission — 24%Erosa KO/TKO — 22%Erosa Decision — 11%Lee Decision — 18%Lee KO/TKO — 16%Lee Submission — 9%

Each square = 1 model percentage point. Julian Erosa gold · Jeong Yeong Lee orange · color opacity: 100% = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Submission equity

Erosa 24% submission is the largest bucket — guillotine and brabo, not lay-and-pray.

Chin risk

Lee 16% KO is real because Erosa's chin is real: 10 knockdowns absorbed in the UFC.

Experience

18 UFC bouts against 4.

Distance share

Only 29% go the distance — five career decision wins for Erosa.

Fair prices

Fair odds: Erosa −133, Lee +133.

Fight Scripts

0%
of simulations

The Guillotine Open

First-round scramble, neck found — Rodriguez/Ramos shape.

Scripted outcomes for Julian Erosa vs Jeong Yeong Lee — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Julian Erosa win probability
0%
22%
11%
24%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • The other first-round branch — and the one that exposes him.

  • Only five career decision wins. Unlikely identity.

  • Largest bucket. Guillotine and brabo, not a lay-and-pray.

Jeong Yeong Lee win probability
0%
16%
18%
9%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Real because Erosa's chin is real.

  • The path if he survives the open.

  • Three career armbars and no UFC submission attempts.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round
R1
Julian
R2
Julian
R3
Jeong
29-28 Erosa
Early chaos banks two; Lee takes a quieter third
Erosa decision 11%
29-28 Lee
Lee survives the first, then out-lands a tiring Erosa over the last two
Lee decision 18%
30-27 Lee
Costa-style: Erosa out-landed in all three rounds
The clean upset card

Model and price

Julian Erosa

Quote age unknown
Model win probability
57%
Fair odds
-133
Reference quote
+140 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds
1.75
Estimated EV
+36.8%
Edge vs no-vig market
+16.9 pp

Jeong Yeong Lee

Quote age unknown
Model win probability
43%
Fair odds
+133
Reference quote
-165 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds
2.33
Estimated EV
-30.9%
Edge vs no-vig market
-16.9 pp

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash marks a price without a same-book pair to compare.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Quotes listed with a date but no time are treated as undated.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Julian Erosa

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 1.76 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Jeong Yeong Lee

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 2.33 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

Erosa by submission (24%, fair +317) is the lean: any posted price longer than +317 is value by these numbers. Lee by KO/TKO (16%, fair +525) is the live hedge, because the favourite was knocked out in his last fight. The fight ends inside the distance 71% of the time (fair −245). Erosa on the moneyline is a bet only at −133 or better.

Conviction
0
4/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

A finisher's lean over a 2-2 UFC record, with the favourite's last fight a knockout loss fresh on his record. Lean: Julian Erosa.

What backs the lean

  • Fourteen career submissions and 0.74 attempts per 15 minutes

  • Nearly twice Lee's significant-strike output

  • Three inches of height and 18 UFC bouts against 4

  • Recent first-round wins over Elkins, Rodriguez and Ramos

  • Lee has lost two straight and was stopped in 65 seconds by Amil

What limits it

  • Erosa was knocked out by Douglas in March and has absorbed 10 knockdowns in the UFC

  • 6.23 absorbed against 3.80

  • Age 30 against 37

  • 74% takedown defence

  • A 57% lean on a man on a two-fight skid should not be sold harder than this

Final Assessment

In roughly 57 of 100 readings, Julian Erosa turns the first round into a scramble and wins by submission (24%) or strikes (22%), with only an 11% decision share because that is not how his wins look. The same chaos is why the lean is narrow.

In the other 43, JeongYeong Lee either survives to a decision (18%), finds the chin that Douglas found (16%), or lands an armbar (9%) that has not shown up in his UFC fights.

Erosa 57 / Lee 43, conviction 4 out of 10. A finisher's lean over a 2-2 UFC record, with the favourite's last fight a knockout loss fresh on his record.

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