Nick Klein vs Joe Kropschot: analysis & prediction

PRELIMS · MIDDLEWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan
Nick Klein — Middleweight fighter

Nick Klein

“Blue Collar”
6W3L
Front-Loaded Wrestler
VS
Joe Kropschot — Middleweight fighter

Joe Kropschot

“The Land Animal”
9W3L
Rangy Choke Artist

A wrestler who wins first rounds against a longer debutant who wins second ones

MiddleweightMeta APEX, Las VegasOctober 31, 202625ft Octagon (Small Cage)

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Klein has won the opening round of both his UFC fights with takedowns, control and leg kicks, then been stopped in the second once the fight was back on the feet. Kropschot is the longer man, and his record says he finishes fights with chokes in the second round. The fight turns on whether Klein's first round can become a finish.

Paths that change the fight

  • Nick KleinMake Round 1 decisive — shots, fence control and back takes — and find the neck the way he did against Souza, Simpson and Huckbody before his second-round fade arrives.
  • Joe KropschotSurvive the first-round wrestling without giving up the back, keep the fight long and at range, and punish a tiring Klein in Round 2 with volume, body work or a choke in the scramble.
What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 3/10
  • Kropschot has no UFC rounds; his rate line is one fight
  • Klein wins first rounds — 2:55 of control per UFC Round 1 and four first-round career finishes

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Nick Klein

Quote age unknown
Model win probability
44%
Fair odds
+127
Reference quote
+265 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds
2.27

Joe Kropschot

Quote age unknown
Model win probability
56%
Fair odds
-127
Reference quote
-325 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds
1.79
Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Quotes listed with a date but no time are treated as undated.

Sources and data limitations

Career statistics and fight results through September 2026. Composite scores, probabilities and fair prices are MMA Analytics model outputs.

Model methodology
Read the evidenceInspect prices and assumptions
01

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Three-round middleweight preliminary in the 25-foot APEX cage. Nick "Blue Collar" Klein (6-3, card rank #76) is 31, a former Wisconsin state wrestling finalist with a BJJ purple belt, and 0-2 in the UFC: both fights followed the same arc — he won the first round on control and takedowns, then was stopped in the second, by a knee and punches from Mansur Abdul-Malik and by a body kick and punches from Andrey Pulyaev. All three of his pro losses are by KO/TKO, and he has not fought since August 2025. Joe "The Land Animal" Kropschot (9-3) is 31, two inches taller and longer, the former LFA middleweight champion, and makes his UFC debut on a five-fight win streak. Six of his nine wins are submissions — the last three finishes all rear-naked chokes in Round 2 — but his Contender Series win in August was a 15-minute striking performance: 119 significant strikes to 59 against Jon Kunneman, almost all of them at range. We take Kropschot 56% / Klein 44% at conviction 3 / 10.

Nick Klein
Attribute
Joe Kropschot
31
Age
31
6'1"
Height
+2" Kropschot6'3"
77"
Reach
+2" Kropschot79"
43"
Leg Reach
+1" Kropschot44"
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Pura Vida BJJ & MMA
Team
Team Black
#76
Card Rank
Unranked
2 (0-2)
UFC Bouts
Debut
Aug 2, 2025 (15 months out)
Last Fight
Aug 11, 2026 (11 weeks out)
Wrestling, control and leg kicks
Fighting Style
Range striking; chokes in scrambles

Kropschot is two inches taller and two inches longer, and the two men are the same age. The bigger gap is activity: Klein has not fought since his August 2025 knockout loss to Andrey Pulyaev, while Kropschot fought eleven weeks before this card. Klein has two UFC bouts; Kropschot makes his UFC debut.

Venue Factor
Twenty-five feet shortens Klein's walk to the fence, and his UFC first rounds show what he does there: nearly three minutes of control per opening round. It also keeps Kropschot's jab and body work within range of a man who defends only 39% of significant strikes.
02

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Nick Klein portrait

Nick Klein

Pro Record
6-3-0
UFC Record
0-2 (plus a 2024 Contender Series win)
Streak
Two straight losses — Abdul-Malik (TKO, R2 3:24) and Pulyaev (TKO, R2 1:31)
Finish Rate
83% (5 of 6 wins) — 2 KO/TKO, 3 submissions
Avg Fight Time
7:28 (2 UFC bouts)
Chin · All three pro losses by KO/TKO (Dokaj R3 2022, Abdul-Malik R2, Pulyaev R2); knocked down once in the UFC.SOS · UFCFront-loaded wrestler

Klein started 3-0 on the Midwest regional scene — two first-round stoppages in under 30 seconds and a decision — before a third-round TKO loss to Dorjan Dokaj in 2022. He answered with three straight rear-naked chokes: Collin Huckbody at 4:51 of Round 3, Cory Simpson in 57 seconds, and Heraldo Souza in 37 seconds on the Contender Series in October 2024, taken on eight days' notice. His two UFC fights have had the same shape. Against Abdul-Malik he won Round 1 on the strike count 16–1 with nearly two minutes of control, then was out-landed 28–12 in Round 2 and stopped at 3:24. Against Pulyaev he landed three takedowns and held 3:55 of control in Round 1, then was dropped and finished by a body kick and punches at 1:31 of Round 2. Across 14:55 in the UFC he lands 2.55 significant strikes per minute — 55% of them to the legs — absorbs 3.49, defends 39%, lands 5 of 16 takedowns and has controlled his opponents for 7:46 to their 0:37.

Joe Kropschot portrait

Joe Kropschot

Pro Record
9-3-0
UFC Record
UFC debut — 1-0 on the Contender Series (2026)
Streak
Five straight wins; former LFA middleweight champion
Finish Rate
89% (8 of 9 wins) — 2 KO/TKO, 6 submissions
Avg Fight Time
15:00 (1 Contender Series bout)
Chin · Stopped three times, all in 2019–21: TKO by Orion Cosce (R3), arm-triangle by Cody Brundage (R3), KO by Daniel Compton (R1). Unbeaten since.SOS · Regional / Contender SeriesRangy submission finisher

Kropschot built his record in Northern California, winning his first four pro fights inside two rounds — a triangle, a guillotine, a 50-second TKO and a rear-naked choke. Then came three straight losses between 2019 and 2021: a third-round TKO by Orion Cosce, a third-round arm-triangle by Cody Brundage in LFA, and a first-round knockout by Daniel Compton. He came back in 2023 with a first-round TKO and has not lost since, finishing Mauricio Alonso, Adland Benson and David Allakhverdiev with rear-naked chokes in Round 2 — the last of them for the LFA middleweight title in February 2026. On the Contender Series in August he showed the other half of his game: 119 of 195 significant strikes against Jon Kunneman's 59, 97% of them at range and nearly half to the body, plus a takedown and three submission attempts, for a unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28) and a UFC contract.

Nick Klein
0 dealt · 0 absorbed
Knockdown Exchange
Knockdowns dealt vs absorbed.
Joe Kropschot
— dealt · — absorbed

Nick Kleinsignature weapons

Rear-Naked ChokeHuckbody (R3 4:51), Simpson (R1 0:57), Souza (R1 0:37, Contender Series)
×3
Early Punches (TKO)Kacey Joe Sanders in 17 seconds (2022); Dan Almario stopped on an injury at 0:29 (2021)
×2

Joe Kropschotsignature weapons

Rear-Naked ChokeGaines, Alonso, Benson and Allakhverdiev — all in Round 2; the last for the LFA title
×4
Punches (TKO)Tyrese McCloud (R1 0:50, 2019) and Sevak Zadourian (R1 2:43, 2023)
×2
Triangle and GuillotineInayatullah Siddique (triangle, R1) and Favian Gutierrez (guillotine, R1) in 2018
×2

Nick Klein

L
Andrey Pulyaev
KO/TKO — Body kick and punches

Opponent context: ufc

R2 (1:31)
UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park — Aug 2, 2025
L
Mansur Abdul-Malik
KO/TKO — Knee and punches

Opponent context: ufc

R2 (3:24)
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song — Feb 22, 2025
W
Heraldo Souza
Submission — Rear-naked choke

Opponent context: ufc adjacent

R1 (0:37)
Dana White's Contender Series 2024, Week 10 — Oct 15, 2024 (UFC contract)
W
Cory Simpson
Submission — Rear-naked choke
R1 (0:57)
MCC 69 — Nov 22, 2023
W
Collin Huckbody
Submission — Rear-naked choke
R3 (4:51)
Ignite Fights: No Mercy 11 — May 20, 2023
Pattern

Klein finishes fast when he finishes — four of his five stoppage wins came in Round 1, all four inside a minute — and all three of his losses are KO/TKOs after the first round. In the UFC he has not seen Round 3.

Joe Kropschot

W
Jon Kunneman
Decision — Unanimous (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)

Opponent context: ufc adjacent

R3 (5:00)
Dana White's Contender Series 2026, Week 1 — Aug 11, 2026 (UFC contract)
W
David Allakhverdiev
Submission — Rear-naked choke

Opponent context: prospect

R2 (3:24)
LFA 226 — Feb 6, 2026 (LFA middleweight title)
W
Adland Benson
Submission — Rear-naked choke
R2 (3:58)
LFA 208 — May 9, 2025
W
Mauricio Alonso
Submission — Rear-naked choke
R2 (2:58)
Fight Night San Jose 2 — Dec 14, 2024
W
Sevak Zadourian
TKO
R1 (2:43)
SF Combat 12 — Jun 24, 2023
Pattern

Kropschot has won five straight, with three second-round chokes before a 15-minute Contender Series decision. His three losses are 2019–21, two of them in Round 3.

Nick Klein

Win Methods
Wins by Round

Joe Kropschot

Win Methods
Wins by Round
Critical Insight
Klein: 2 KO/TKOs, 3 submissions and 1 decision in 6 professional wins. Of Klein's 5 finishes, four in round one and one in round three. Kropschot: 2 KO/TKOs, 6 submissions and 1 decision in 9 professional wins. All eight of Kropschot's finishes came inside the first two rounds, four in round one. The round bars count every professional win, with decisions in the DEC column.

Opposition strength (no shared opponents)

Without a reliable shared-opponent table, compare who each fighter has been tested against using SOS tier, UFC sample size, and recent elite-tier form — not raw records alone.

FactorNickJoe
Strength of schedule (SOS tier)UFC — UFC losses to Mansur Abdul-Malik and Andrey Pulyaev; Contender Series choke of Heraldo SouzaRegional / Contender Series — LFA title win over the previously unbeaten David Allakhverdiev; Contender Series decision over Jon Kunneman
UFC sample0-2 (plus a 2024 Contender Series win)UFC debut — 1-0 on the Contender Series (2026)
Recent ranked / elite touches (last 5)0 elite · 0 veteran tier0 elite · 0 veteran tier
Form-window difficulty edge: Fighter B (1 vs 0 tier points in listed bouts).
Last three opponentsAndrey Pulyaev, Mansur Abdul-Malik, Heraldo SouzaJon Kunneman, David Allakhverdiev, Adland Benson
  • No shared opponents: No transitive bridge. Both men earned UFC contracts on the Contender Series at the APEX.
03

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and UFC experience before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

Model striking score — Klein: UFC rate line; Kropschot: Contender Series and pro record

0
Nick
0
Joefew UFC fights

Klein lands 2.55 significant strikes per minute (middleweight average 4.22) and defends 39% (average 51.9%). Kropschot's gauge reads his one Contender Series fight — 7.93 landed per minute at 61% — weighted toward the division norm because it is fifteen minutes.

Grappling

Model grappling score — Klein: UFC rate line; Kropschot: Contender Series and pro record

0
Nick
0
Joefew UFC fights

Klein averages 5.03 takedowns per fifteen minutes (5 of 16) and has out-controlled his UFC opponents 7:46 to 0:37. Kropschot landed one takedown of two and conceded one of two on the Contender Series; his six submission wins are the reason the gap is not wider.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

0
Nick
0
Joefew UFC fights

Four points to Kropschot: the striking gap is larger than the grappling gap.

MetricNickJoe
UFC Bouts2 (0-2)Debut
Finish Rate83% (5 of 6)89% (8 of 9)
Round 1 vs Round 212.5 landed, 6.5 absorbed → 6.5 landed, 19.5 absorbed4 R1 finishes, 4 R2 finishesfew UFC fights
Stoppage Losses3 of 3 (all KO/TKO)3 of 3 (2 KO/TKO, 1 sub; none since 2021)
Layoff15 months11 weeks

Archetype Base Rate

Front-Loaded Wrestler 44%56% Rangy Submission Finisher

Matchup read — 2 UFC bouts vs a Contender Series debut · No archetype sample covers a UFC debutant. The 56-44 lean follows size, activity and Klein's two second-round stoppage losses, trimmed because Kropschot makes his UFC debut.

Middleweight

· 46 fighters

Rank bars use the recorded division cohort. Where no rank is shown, the comparison shows the difference from the published division average; the white marker denotes equality. Percentage differences are percentage points (pp). Higher is not always better: fewer strikes absorbed is preferable.

StatNickNick comparisonDiv avgJoe comparisonJoe
SLpM2.55
-1.67 vs avgfew UFC fights
4.22
+3.71 vs avgfew UFC fights
7.93
Str Acc57%
+4.10 pp vs avgfew UFC fights
52.9%
+8.10 pp vs avgfew UFC fights
61%
Str Def39%
-12.90 pp vs avgfew UFC fights
51.9%
+11.10 pp vs avgfew UFC fights
63%
SApM3.49
-0.14 vs avgfew UFC fights
3.63
+0.30 vs avgfew UFC fights
3.93
KD Avg0.00
-0.55 vs avgfew UFC fights
0.55
-0.55 vs avgfew UFC fights
0.00
TD/155.03
+3.10 vs avgfew UFC fights
1.93
-0.93 vs avgfew UFC fights
1.00
TD Acc31% (5 of 16)
—
—
—few UFC fights
50% (1 of 2)
TD Def67% (1 conceded of 3)
—
—
—few UFC fights
50% (1 conceded of 2)
Sub/151.01
+0.29 vs avgfew UFC fights
0.72
+2.28 vs avgfew UFC fights
3.00
Control share52% of UFC cage time
—
—
—
—
Statistical Verdict
Klein's UFC line is two fights and fifteen minutes, and it splits in two: a grappler who takes people down at two and a half times the middleweight rate and controls more than half of his cage time, and a striker who lands well under the division's output and defends 39% of what comes back. Kropschot's column is one Contender Series fight in which he was the busier, more accurate and harder-to-hit man at range. Neither column is a large sample — which is why the durability record, not the rates, is the tiebreaker.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

Control Time per Round (sec)

Nick Klein

  • Round 1 is Klein's round: 12.5 significant strikes landed against 6.5 absorbed, 2:55 of control and four takedowns from eleven attempts across two opening rounds. He won the first round on strikes against Abdul-Malik (16–1) and on control against Pulyaev (3:55).
  • Round 2 is where both UFC fights ended. His output halves to 6.5, he absorbs 19.5, and both opponents stopped him — Abdul-Malik at 3:24 after out-landing him 28–12, Pulyaev at 1:31 after dropping him.
  • He has never reached Round 3 in the UFC; his only third-round finish is a 2023 regional choke, and his only pro decision went three rounds in 2022.

Joe Kropschot

  • Kropschot makes his UFC debut, so his charts are empty. His Contender Series fight went the full 15 minutes: 119 significant strikes to Kunneman's 59, 97% of them at range and 43% to the body, with a takedown and three submission attempts.
  • Before that, three straight second-round rear-naked chokes (Alonso 2:58, Benson 3:58, Allakhverdiev 3:24) — Round 2 is his finishing round.
  • His three pro losses (2019–21) came in Round 3 twice and Round 1 once; he has not lost since.
Critical Insight
The two clocks overlap badly for Klein. His UFC output collapses in Round 2, where he absorbs three times what he did in Round 1, and Round 2 is where Kropschot has finished three straight regional opponents. Klein's winning window is the first five minutes.

Strike targeting

Nick

Head
26%
Body
19%
Legs
55%

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

NickJoe
76%Distance—
24%Clinch—
0%Ground—

Share of significant strikes landed at distance, in the clinch and on the ground across each fighter's UFC rounds, weighted by strike volume.

04

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much
Open SpaceJoe owns it

Kropschot +2" reach and 7.93 landed per minute at range on the Contender Series; Klein lands 2.55

PocketJoe owns it

Klein defends 39% of significant strikes and all three of his losses are KO/TKO

ClinchNick owns it

Klein's fence control — 2:55 per UFC opening round — against a debutant who conceded one of two takedowns

GroundNick owns it

Klein's top control and three straight chokes, against a man with six submission wins of his own

The Deep Read

Both men are finishers who choke people, and both earned UFC contracts on the Contender Series at the APEX. What separates them is when their fights turn. Klein's UFC fights turn in Round 2: he won the first five minutes both times, then was out-landed 28–12 and stopped by Abdul-Malik, and dropped and stopped by Pulyaev.

Kropschot's recent fights turn in Round 2 too — the other way. He finished Alonso, Benson and the previously unbeaten Allakhverdiev with rear-naked chokes in the second round, then showed on the Contender Series that he can also win fifteen minutes at range with 119 significant strikes.

Conviction is 3 because Kropschot has no UFC rounds and his three career losses came when opponents made him work late. The lean still goes to the longer, more active man, against a wrestler who has not fought in fifteen months and has been stopped in every loss.

Path to Victory

Nick Klein

Make Round 1 decisive — shots, fence control and back takes — and find the neck the way he did against Souza, Simpson and Huckbody before his second-round fade arrives.

Why they win
01
First-round control

2:55 of control and four takedowns across his two UFC opening rounds; he won Round 1 in both fights.

02
The neck

Three straight rear-naked choke wins before the UFC, two of them inside a minute.

03
UFC experience

Two UFC fights against a debutant — he has already worked through a fight-night walk in this cage.

04
Wrestling pedigree

A Wisconsin state finalist whose takedown rate is two and a half times the middleweight average.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Chain the shots early

    His first-round rate is the whole plan — get to the fence and the legs immediately.

  2. 2
    Stay heavy, stay down

    Every stand-up has cost him; ride top position rather than chase damage.

  3. 3
    Protect the back half

    Pace Round 1 so Round 2 is not the Abdul-Malik and Pulyaev round again.

Path to Victory

Joe Kropschot

Survive the first-round wrestling without giving up the back, keep the fight long and at range, and punish a tiring Klein in Round 2 with volume, body work or a choke in the scramble.

Why they win
01
Size

+2" in height and reach, +1" in leg reach.

02
Round 2

Three straight Round 2 chokes against a man who has been stopped in Round 2 twice in the UFC.

03
Range output

7.93 significant strikes per minute at 61% on the Contender Series, against Klein's 39% striking defence.

04
Activity

Eleven weeks since a win against fifteen months since a knockout loss.

05
Grappling of his own

Six submission wins — Klein cannot assume the ground is safe once he gets there.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Survive and stand

    Get back up from the first-round shots without conceding the back.

  2. 2
    Jab and body

    Keep it at range, where he landed 115 of his 119 on the Contender Series.

  3. 3
    Hunt Round 2

    Push the pace as Klein tires; the rear-naked choke has finished his last three.

Danger Zone

How Nick Klein loses

  • The Pulyaev script: he wins the first round on control, stands up in the second and is caught by kicks and punches.

  • His shots come up short against a longer man, and a range kickboxing fight at 2.55 landed per minute becomes a decision loss.

  • A scramble off a failed takedown gives up the back to a fighter who has finished four straight chokes.

Danger Zone

How Joe Kropschot loses

  • Klein's opening round goes as it did against Pulyaev — three takedowns and four minutes of control — and this time the choke is there.

  • A debut spent defending takedowns for five minutes empties his gas tank before his Round 2 window opens.

  • His three losses came when opponents dragged him into later rounds; a grinding fight could look like 2019–21 again.

Klein's UFC round shape

The Round 2 cliff

Klein lands 12.5 and absorbs 6.5 in an average UFC Round 1, then lands 6.5 and absorbs 19.5 in Round 2. Both UFC fights ended in that second round.

19.5
significant strikes absorbed per UFC Round 2
Kropschot's finishing round

Second-round choker

Kropschot's last three finishes were rear-naked chokes at 2:58, 3:58 and 3:24 of Round 2, the last one for the LFA title.

4 of 8
Kropschot's finishes in Round 2
Klein's grappling edge

Control without cover

Klein has controlled his UFC opponents for 7:46 to their 0:37 and still lost both fights — the control has not protected him once the fight stands.

52%
of Klein's UFC cage time in control

Layoff and activity

Klein returns from fifteen months out after a knockout loss; Kropschot fought eleven weeks ago and has won five straight.

The Five-Round Clock

Nick Klein danger windowJoe Kropschot danger windowNeutral / contested
R1 · 0:00–5:00Klein's window

Klein averages 2:55 of control and out-lands his opponents 12.5 to 6.5 in UFC opening rounds; four of his five career finishes came in Round 1. Kropschot also has four Round 1 finishes, all before 2024.

Critical Insight
Three rounds, and the first is the only one that belongs to Klein. If he has not finished it by the end of Round 1, the fight moves into the round where he has broken twice and Kropschot has finished three straight.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

05

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things
1

Klein wins first rounds and loses second rounds — both UFC fights ended in Round 2 after he had controlled the first.

2

Kropschot is more than a range striker: six of his nine wins are submissions, the last three finishes all Round 2 chokes.

3

Model: Kropschot 56 / Klein 44, conviction 3 of 10. Fair line Kropschot −127 / Klein +127.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Klein KO/TKO — 8%Klein Decision — 14%Klein Submission — 22%Kropschot KO/TKO — 16%Kropschot Decision — 28%Kropschot Submission — 12%

Each square = 1 model percentage point. Nick Klein gold · Joe Kropschot orange · color opacity: 100% = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Klein's Round 2

Stopped in Round 2 in both UFC fights after winning Round 1; he absorbs 19.5 significant strikes per UFC second round.

Durability

All three of Klein's pro losses are KO/TKOs, and he defends 39% of significant strikes.

Size and activity

Kropschot is two inches taller and longer and fought eleven weeks ago; Klein has been out fifteen months.

Klein's opening round

2:55 of control per UFC Round 1 and four first-round career finishes keep his submission path live at 22%.

Debut uncertainty

Kropschot has no UFC rounds; one Contender Series fight and a regional record cap conviction at 3.

Fight Scripts

0%
of simulations

Kropschot at range

He survives the first-round wrestling, keeps the fight long and wins a decision with the jab and body work that beat Kunneman.

Scripted outcomes for Nick Klein vs Joe Kropschot — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Nick Klein win probability
0%
8%
14%
22%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Two early regional TKOs, none in the UFC — ground strikes from top position are the realistic route.

  • Would need his first-round control to hold for three rounds, which it has not done in the UFC.

  • Three straight rear-naked chokes before the UFC; the live upset if Round 1 goes his way.

Joe Kropschot win probability
0%
16%
28%
12%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Klein's three losses are all KO/TKOs, two in Round 2 in the UFC.

  • The Contender Series template: fifteen minutes at range.

  • Four career rear-naked chokes, all in Round 2 — kept modest because Klein has never been submitted.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round
R1
Nick
R2
Joe
R3
Joe
29-28
Kropschot — Klein's first round, then range
~45% of decisions
29-28
Klein — wrestling steals two rounds
~33% of decisions
30-27
Kropschot — stuffs the early shots
~22% of decisions

Model and price

Nick Klein

Quote age unknown
Model win probability
44%
Fair odds
+127
Reference quote
+265 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds
2.27
Estimated EV
+60.6%
Edge vs no-vig market
+17.6 pp

Joe Kropschot

Quote age unknown
Model win probability
56%
Fair odds
-127
Reference quote
-325 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds
1.79
Estimated EV
-26.8%
Edge vs no-vig market
-17.6 pp

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash marks a price without a same-book pair to compare.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Quotes listed with a date but no time are treated as undated.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Nick Klein

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 2.28 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Joe Kropschot

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 1.79 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

Model fair prices: Kropschot by decision 28% (fair +257), Klein by submission 22% (+355), Kropschot by KO/TKO 16% (+525), Klein by decision 14% (+614), Kropschot by submission 12% (+733); the fight goes the distance 42% (+138). Kropschot on the moneyline is a bet only at −127 or better; Klein becomes the value side at longer than +127. The model's strongest single angle is Klein by submission at +355 or longer, the one route where his first-round advantage turns into a win.

Conviction
0
3/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Kropschot 56 / Klein 44. The longer, more active man is the lean because Klein has been stopped in Round 2 in both UFC fights. Kropschot's UFC debut is why the number stays low. Lean: Joe Kropschot.

What backs the lean

  • Two inches taller and longer, and eleven weeks since a win against fifteen months since a knockout loss

  • Klein is 0-2 in the UFC, both second-round stoppages, at 39% striking defence

  • Kropschot's last three finishes were Round 2 chokes — the round Klein breaks in

  • His Contender Series win was a 119–59 striking performance at range

What limits it

  • Kropschot has no UFC rounds; his rate line is one fight

  • Klein wins first rounds — 2:55 of control per UFC Round 1 and four first-round career finishes

  • Kropschot's three losses came when opponents dragged him late

  • Klein has never been submitted, which trims Kropschot's choke path

Final Assessment

In roughly 56 of 100 readings, Joe Kropschot survives Klein's first round, uses the reach and the activity edge and either takes a decision (28%) or breaks Klein in the middle of the fight by KO/TKO (16%) or a choke in a scramble (12%).

In the other 44, Nick Klein makes Round 1 decisive — takedowns, the back, and a rear-naked choke (22%) — or holds his control for long enough to win a decision (14%). His knockout share is 8%.

Kropschot 56 / Klein 44, conviction 3 out of 10. The longer man is the lean because Klein has been finished in both UFC fights. Kropschot's UFC debut is why the number stays low.

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