Tainara Lisboa vs Lucia Szabová: analysis & prediction

PRELIMS · WOMEN'S FLYWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan
Tainara Lisboa — Women's Flyweight fighter

Tainara Lisboa

“Thai Panther”
7W4L
Muay Thai UFC Veteran
VS
Lucia Szabová — Women's Flyweight fighter

Lucia Szabová

“Silent Killer”
12W0L
Undefeated Oktagon Double Champion

A UFC veteran meets an unbeaten regional champion at flyweight

Women's FlyweightMeta APEX, Las VegasOctober 31, 202625ft Octagon (Small Cage)

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Lisboa has spent nearly half of her UFC cage time being controlled, and both of her Octagon losses were late stoppages in rounds she was already losing. Szabová arrives unbeaten, with a Muay Thai base, armbar finishes and a belt already won at this weight. The fight turns on whether Lisboa's clinch work can keep a debutante from settling in.

Paths that change the fight

  • Tainara LisboaTurn it into a clinch fight on the fence — knees and short strikes to the body, level changes late — and keep a debutante from finding her range, then win the last round the way she beat Clark and Oliveira.
  • Lucia SzabováWin the range early with the Muay Thai, punish Lisboa's slow output, and look for the arm or the elbows when the clinch breaks — before Lisboa's late wrestling window opens.
What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 4/10
  • Szabová has zero UFC rounds
  • Lisboa has already won and lost in this cage, including a Round 3 submission win

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Tainara Lisboa

Quote age unknown
Model win probability
38%
Fair odds
+163
Reference quote
+540 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds
2.63

Lucia Szabová

Quote age unknown
Model win probability
62%
Fair odds
-163
Reference quote
-750 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds
1.61
Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Quotes listed with a date but no time are treated as undated.

Sources and data limitations

Career statistics and fight results through September 2026. Composite scores, probabilities and fair prices are MMA Analytics model outputs.

Model methodology
Read the evidenceInspect prices and assumptions
01

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Three-round women's flyweight preliminary bout at 125 lb in the APEX. Tainara Lisboa (7-4) brings four UFC fights and a clinch-heavy Muay Thai game. Lucia Szabová (12-0) makes her UFC debut with striking and submission experience from Oktagon. Lisboa needs to turn entries into sustained offence instead of conceding control; Szabová needs to translate her regional success into an Octagon performance. The existing 62-38 editorial estimate is retained as a prior assessment, not a newly calculated forecast.

Tainara Lisboa
Attribute
Lucia Szabová
35
Age
7 years younger28
5'7"
Height
5'7"
67"
Reach
—
38"
Leg Reach
—
Orthodox
Stance
—
Damas 013
Team
Hanuman Gym Bratislava
May 13, 2023 (Clark)
Octagon Debut
Oct 31, 2026 (this fight)
125 lb — down from four UFC bantamweight bouts
Booked weight
125 lb — Oktagon flyweight title experience
#25
Card Rank
Unranked
Muay Thai clinch striker
Fighting Style
Muay Thai striker, armbar finisher

Both women stand 5'7" and Lisboa is seven years older. This booking is at 125 lb. Lisboa drops from bantamweight, where all four of her UFC fights took place, while Szabová won the vacant Oktagon flyweight title in April 2026.

Venue Factor
The APEX is 25 feet, so the fence is never far away. Lisboa does 38% of her significant striking in the clinch and 35% of it to the body — knees and short strikes on the fence are her best work. The same fence is where she has been held: opponents have controlled her for 26 of her 54 UFC minutes. Szabová's elbow-and-punch stoppages of Bolander and Fernandes and her keylock of Faria are close-range finishes.
02

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Tainara Lisboa is lifted in celebration inside the Octagon after submitting Jessica-Rose Clark in Charlotte, May 2023

Tainara Lisboa

Pro Record
7-4-0
UFC Record
2-2 (all four UFC bouts at bantamweight)
Streak
Two straight losses — Luana Santos (keylock, R2 4:59) and Melissa Croden (TKO, R3 4:32)
Finish Rate
86% (6 of 7 wins) — 3 KO/TKO, 3 submissions
Avg Fight Time
13:28 (4 UFC bouts)
Chin · Stopped by strikes once — Croden in Round 3, after a Round 2 knockdown. Submitted twice (Norma Dumont 2016, Luana Santos 2025).SOS · UFCMuay Thai clinch fighter

Lisboa lost her pro debut to Norma Dumont in 2016 and went 5-1 on the Brazilian regional scene after it, finishing all five wins — three TKOs and two arm-triangle chokes, four of the five in Round 1. The UFC version has been slower. She submitted Jessica-Rose Clark with a rear-naked choke at 4:20 of Round 3 in her debut (after being out-controlled 7:36 to 2:09) and out-worked Ravena Oliveira over three rounds with 6:55 of control. Then the line turned. Luana Santos took her down in both rounds, held her for 7:57 of 9:59 and finished a keylock at 4:59 of Round 2; Melissa Croden out-landed her 99 to 42, dropped her in Round 2 and stopped her at 4:32 of Round 3. Across four UFC bouts she lands 2.01 significant strikes per minute at 44%, absorbs 2.88, defends 46%, lands 6 of 19 takedowns and has conceded 7 of 15.

Lucia Szabová portrait

Lucia Szabová

Pro Record
12-0-0
UFC Record
UFC debut
Streak
12-0 — Oktagon bantamweight and flyweight champion
Finish Rate
75% of wins (9 of 12) — 5 submissions, 4 KO/TKO
Avg Fight Time
8:40 (12 pro bouts)
Chin · Unbeaten at 12-0 on the current card; went the full 25 minutes with Lucie Pudilová in August 2026.SOS · Regional / Oktagon titlesMuay Thai finisher with an armbar game

Szabová was a Slovak Muay Thai champion and a kickboxing tournament winner before she turned to MMA, and her first five pro fights in Oktagon were all finishes, including an armbar in 43 seconds, an armbar in Round 2 and a head-kick knockout at 1:30. A break of nearly three years around the birth of her son followed a 2021 decision over Cornelia Holm; she came back in 2024 with a third-round armbar of Róża Gumienna and a decision over Aitana Álvarez, then stopped UFC veteran Kalindra Faria with a keylock at 4:16 of Round 1. She took the Oktagon bantamweight title from Cecilie Bolander with elbows and punches at 3:11 of Round 1, dropped to 125 to stop Leidiane Fernandes for the vacant flyweight title at 2:12 of Round 3, and defended at bantamweight with a five-round unanimous decision over Lucie Pudilová on August 1, 2026.

Tainara Lisboa
0 dealt · 0 absorbed
Knockdown Exchange
Knockdowns dealt vs absorbed.
Lucia Szabová
— dealt · — absorbed

Tainara Lisboasignature weapons

Arm-Triangle ChokeDaline Gomes Silvestre (R1 4:36, 2020) and Conceição Barros Oliveira (R1 4:20, 2022)
×2
Punches (TKO)Leticia Hille (R1 2:35) and Gloria Amaral (R1 3:48) in 2021; a third TKO, in 2019, was a corner stoppage in Round 3
×2
Rear-Naked ChokeJessica-Rose Clark, R3 4:20 — her one UFC finish
×1

Lucia Szabovásignature weapons

ArmbarPetkevičiute (R1 0:43), Zouak (R2 1:25), Gumienna (R3 4:38)
×3
Elbows and Punches (TKO)Bolander R1 3:11 (bantamweight title) and Fernandes R3 2:12 (flyweight title)
×2
KeylockKalindra Faria, R1 4:16 — a UFC veteran
×1
Head KickChristina Netza, R1 1:30 (2021)
×1

Tainara Lisboa

L
Melissa Croden
KO/TKO — Punches

Opponent context: ufc

R3 (4:32)
UFC Fight Night: de Ridder vs. Allen — Oct 18, 2025
L
Luana Santos
Submission — Keylock

Opponent context: ranked

R2 (4:59)
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales — May 17, 2025
W
Ravena Oliveira
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: ufc

R3 (5:00)
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza — Oct 14, 2023
W
Jessica-Rose Clark
Submission — Rear-naked choke

Opponent context: veteran

R3 (4:20)
UFC on ABC: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida — May 13, 2023
W
Conceição Barros Oliveira
Submission — Arm-triangle choke
R1 (4:20)
Iron Man MMA 23 — Apr 8, 2022
Pattern

Every one of Lisboa's UFC fights reached the last minutes of a round she needed. She won two of them there — the Clark choke at 4:20 of Round 3 and the Oliveira decision — and lost two there, at 4:59 of Round 2 and 4:32 of Round 3. Before the UFC she finished all five of her wins, four of them in Round 1.

Lucia Szabová

W
Lucie Pudilová
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: veteran

R5 (5:00)
Oktagon 92 — Aug 1, 2026 (bantamweight title defence)
W
Leidiane Fernandes
KO/TKO — Elbows and punches

Opponent context: prospect

R3 (2:12)
Oktagon 87 — Apr 25, 2026 (vacant flyweight title)
W
Cecilie Bolander
KO/TKO — Elbows and punches

Opponent context: prospect

R1 (3:11)
Oktagon 74 — Aug 9, 2025 (bantamweight title)
W
Kalindra Faria
Submission — Keylock

Opponent context: veteran

R1 (4:16)
Oktagon 67 — Feb 22, 2025
W
Aitana Álvarez
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: prospect

R3 (5:00)
Oktagon 59 — Jul 20, 2024
Pattern

Szabová's last five are all wins over three promotions' worth of opposition: two UFC veterans (Faria, Pudilová), two title stoppages and a decision. Three ended inside the distance, and the Pudilová defence was her first 25-minute fight. This is three rounds at 125.

Tainara Lisboa

Win Methods
Wins by Round

Lucia Szabová

Win Methods
Wins by Round
Critical Insight
Lisboa: 3 KO/TKOs, 3 submissions and 1 decision in 7 professional wins. Of Lisboa's 6 finishes, four in round one and two in round three. Szabová: 4 KO/TKOs, 5 submissions and 3 decisions in 12 professional wins. Of Szabová's 9 finishes, six in round one, one in round two and two in round three. The round bars count every professional win, with decisions in the DEC column.

Opposition strength (no shared opponents)

Without a reliable shared-opponent table, compare who each fighter has been tested against using SOS tier, UFC sample size, and recent elite-tier form — not raw records alone.

FactorTainaraLucia
Strength of schedule (SOS tier)UFC — UFC wins over Jessica-Rose Clark (rear-naked choke) and Ravena Oliveira (decision); losses to Luana Santos and Melissa CrodenRegional / Oktagon titles — Best wins: Lucie Pudilová (UFC veteran, five-round decision) and Kalindra Faria (UFC veteran, first-round keylock)
UFC sample2-2 (all four UFC bouts at bantamweight)UFC debut
Recent ranked / elite touches (last 5)0 elite · 1 veteran tier0 elite · 2 veteran tier
Form-window difficulty edge: Fighter B (7 vs 2 tier points in listed bouts).
Last three opponentsMelissa Croden, Luana Santos, Ravena OliveiraLucie Pudilová, Leidiane Fernandes, Cecilie Bolander
  • No shared opponents: The closest bridge is quality, not a shared name: Szabová's two UFC-veteran wins (Faria, Pudilová) against Lisboa's four UFC opponents.
03

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and UFC experience before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

Model striking score — Lisboa: UFC rate line; Szabová: pro record

0
Tainara
0
Luciafew UFC fights

Lisboa lands 2.01 significant strikes per minute at 44% accuracy with 46% defence across four UFC fights. Szabová has no UFC rate sample; her composite is an editorial reading of the documented regional bouts.

Grappling

Model grappling score — Lisboa: UFC rate line; Szabová: pro record

0
Tainara
0
Luciafew UFC fights

Lisboa lands 1.67 takedowns per fifteen minutes (6 of 19) but has conceded 7 of 15 and been controlled for 26 of her 54 UFC minutes. Szabová's five submissions in 12 wins — four armbars and a keylock — drive her score.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

0
Tainara
0
Luciafew UFC fights

Szabová by twelve, split across both phases. Her half of the gauge rests on regional opposition.

MetricTainaraLucia
UFC Fights4 (2-2)Debut
Pro Record7-4-012-0-0
Finish Rate86% (6 of 7)75% (9 of 12)
Avg Fight Time13:28 (4 UFC bouts)8:40 (12 pro bouts)few UFC fights
Last ResultL — TKO R3 CrodenW — UD5 Pudilová

Archetype Base Rate

Muay Thai UFC Veteran 38%62% Undefeated Regional Champion

Matchup read — 12-0 regional résumé vs a 2-2 UFC line · No archetype sample covers a UFC debutant. The 62-38 line follows an unbeaten two-weight regional champion against a UFC line that has lost its last two, trimmed for the debut.

Women's Flyweight

These values describe each fighter; no division rank is assigned.

StatTainaraLucia
SLpM2.01—
Str Acc44%—
Str Def46%—
SApM2.88—
KD Avg0.00—
TD/151.67—
TD Acc32% (6 of 19)—
TD Def53% (7 conceded of 15)—
Sub/150.28—
Pro record7-4-012-0-0
Finish rate86%75%
Statistical Verdict
Lisboa lands 2.01 significant strikes per minute and has spent 26 of her 54 UFC minutes under control. Those numbers come from her four bantamweight appearances; this is her first UFC fight at 125 lb. Szabová makes her UFC debut.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

Control Time per Round (sec)

Tainara Lisboa

  • Round 1 is her most even round: 12.3 significant strikes landed against 12.0 absorbed on average, with 41% of her strikes going to the body and two takedowns from six attempts across four opening rounds.
  • Round 2 tilts away from her — 10.3 landed, 13.0 absorbed, and more than two minutes of opponent control per round. It is where Croden dropped her and where Luana Santos finished the keylock at 4:59.
  • Round 3 is her lowest-output round (6.0 landed, 18.3 absorbed) and her busiest wrestling round: ten takedown attempts in three third rounds, landing two, with more than half of her strikes coming from the clinch. It produced her best UFC moment, the Clark choke at 4:20, and her worst, the Croden stoppage at 4:32.

Lucia Szabová

  • Szabová makes her UFC debut, so her charts are empty. Six of her nine finishes came in Round 1, including an armbar in 43 seconds, a head-kick knockout at 1:30, the Bolander stoppage at 3:11 and the Faria keylock at 4:16.
  • She has one Round 2 finish, a Zouak armbar at 1:25, and two in Round 3 — the Gumienna armbar at 4:38 and the Fernandes stoppage at 2:12 for the flyweight title.
  • Her three decisions include the only 25-minute fight on either record: the unanimous decision over Lucie Pudilová in August 2026.
Critical Insight
Lisboa's UFC fights get worse for her as they go: she absorbs 12.0, then 13.0, then 18.3 significant strikes per round while her own output halves. Her upset path still lives late, because that is when she wrestles hardest and where her one UFC finish came. Szabová has finished fights in all three rounds, most often in the first.

Strike targeting

Tainara

Head
60%
Body
35%
Legs
5%

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

TainaraLucia
60%Distance—
38%Clinch—
2%Ground—

Share of significant strikes landed at distance, in the clinch and on the ground across each fighter's UFC rounds, weighted by strike volume.

04

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much
Open SpaceLucia owns it

Lisboa lands 65 of her 108 UFC significant strikes at range in 54 minutes; Szabová is a Muay Thai champion with a head-kick knockout

PocketLucia owns it

Lisboa defends 46% of strikes (division 56.5%); Croden landed 99 on her

ClinchEven

Lisboa's best range — 38% of her strikes, heavy to the body — against Szabová's elbow finishes

GroundLucia owns it

Lisboa controlled for 26 of 54 UFC minutes and submitted by keylock; Szabová has four armbars and a keylock

The Deep Read

This is a UFC veteran on a two-fight losing run against an unbeaten Oktagon double champion making her Octagon debut. Lisboa's UFC line is the only measured one in the fight, and it describes a slow fight that she eventually loses control of: about two significant strikes landed per minute, 46% defence, and opponents holding her for nearly half of her minutes. Szabová is 12-0, and her wins include nine finishes and two over UFC veterans.

At flyweight, the physical story is about how the two styles share a small cage. Lisboa wants to close distance behind a safe entry, land knees and work from the fence. Szabová can threaten with short strikes and submissions in those same exchanges. Control only helps Lisboa when it produces offence.

Conviction sits at 4 because Octagon debuts break locks. The lean is still Szabová: form, youth, finishing range and a weight she has already made, against a UFC line that has leaked strikes and control in both of its last two fights.

Path to Victory

Tainara Lisboa

Turn it into a clinch fight on the fence — knees and short strikes to the body, level changes late — and keep a debutante from finding her range, then win the last round the way she beat Clark and Oliveira.

Why they win
01
Octagon experience

Four UFC bouts and 53:51 of cage time against a debutant. She has already won and lost in this cage, including a Round 3 submission win in her UFC debut.

02
Clinch body work

38% of her significant strikes come in the clinch and 35% go to the body — close-range Muay Thai from a two-time world champion in the sport.

03
Late-round wrestling

Ten takedown attempts in three UFC third rounds, and both of her UFC wins were decided in Round 3.

04
Finishing record

Six of her seven pro wins are finishes — two arm-triangle chokes, a rear-naked choke and three TKOs.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Close the distance

    Walk her to the fence and work the body in the clinch — she lands barely one significant strike per minute at range.

  2. 2
    Survive the first surge

    Szabová has six Round 1 finishes; keep the head in the tie-ups and the elbows tight early.

  3. 3
    Wrestle the last round

    Her late takedown volume and the Clark choke are the template for stealing a debut late.

Path to Victory

Lucia Szabová

Win the range early with the Muay Thai, punish Lisboa's slow output, and look for the arm or the elbows when the clinch breaks — before Lisboa's late wrestling window opens.

Why they win
01
Unbeaten two-weight champion

12-0, Oktagon champion at 135 and 125, with UFC veterans Kalindra Faria and Lucie Pudilová among her wins.

02
Finishing in every round

Nine finishes in 12 wins — six in Round 1, one in Round 2, two in Round 3.

03
The submission gap

Four armbars and a keylock against a fighter who has been submitted twice and controlled for 26 of her 54 UFC minutes.

04
Weight and age

Seven years younger, with title experience at both bantamweight and flyweight; whether that translates against UFC opposition remains the central uncertainty.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Range first

    Keep Lisboa working from distance and make her pay for clinch entries.

  2. 2
    Punish the entries

    Meet her clinch entries with elbows, as against Bolander and Fernandes, and look for the arm when she shoots.

  3. 3
    Bank early rounds

    Lisboa absorbs more every round; win the first two and deny her a slow fifteen minutes.

Danger Zone

How Tainara Lisboa loses

  • A range kickboxing fight at two significant strikes per minute becomes the Croden fight again — out-landed round after round and caught late.

  • Her level changes come up short, Szabová ends up on top, and the arm is exposed the way it was against Luana Santos.

  • Lisboa concedes prolonged control and cannot recover the lost rounds with late takedown attempts.

Danger Zone

How Lucia Szabová loses

  • First-UFC-night caution: she waits, Lisboa drags her to the fence, and a low-volume fight is decided by clinch and control minutes.

  • Lisboa's clinch knees and late takedowns take the rounds that a regional finishing rate was supposed to end early.

  • A finish rate built on regional opposition does not transfer to her first UFC opponent.

Lisboa's UFC control split

Controlled for half the fight

Opponents have controlled Lisboa for 26:00 of her 53:51 in the UFC, including 7:57 of the 9:59 she lasted against Luana Santos. Even in her win over Jessica-Rose Clark she was out-controlled 7:36 to 2:09 before finding the choke.

48%
of Lisboa's UFC cage time under opponent control
Lisboa's round shape

The late fade

Her output falls from 12.3 significant strikes in Round 1 to 6.0 in Round 3 while her opponents' rises from 12.0 to 18.3. Croden out-landed her 39 to 4 in the last round before the stoppage.

18.3
significant strikes absorbed per UFC Round 3
Szabová's record

A finisher in every round

Nine of her 12 wins inside the distance — six in Round 1, one in Round 2, two in Round 3 — and a five-round decision to prove the gas tank.

75%
Szabová's career finish rate

Flyweight in a small cage

Both are booked at 125 lb. The small cage keeps Lisboa's clinch entries close, but also brings Szabová's elbows and submission threats into play.

The Five-Round Clock

Tainara Lisboa danger windowLucia Szabová danger windowNeutral / contested
R1 · 0:00–5:00Szabová's finishing window

Six of Szabová's nine finishes came in Round 1 (Petkevičiute 0:43, Netza 1:30, Eliasova 1:31, Bolander 3:11, Faria 4:16, Dostalova 4:28). Lisboa's opening rounds are her most even in the UFC, 12.3 landed against 12.0 absorbed.

Critical Insight
Three rounds only. Szabová's threat is front-loaded; Lisboa's chance is late, in the round where she wrestles most — and where she has also been hurt most.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

05

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things
1

Lisboa has been controlled for nearly half of her UFC cage time and absorbs more with every round — the profile an unbeaten finisher wants in front of her.

2

Nine of her 12 wins are finishes: four by KO/TKO and five by submission.

3

Model: Szabová 62 / Lisboa 38, conviction 4 of 10 — the debut is the cap. Fair line Szabová −163 / Lisboa +163.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Lisboa KO/TKO — 8%Lisboa Decision — 18%Lisboa Submission — 12%Szabová KO/TKO — 18%Szabová Decision — 22%Szabová Submission — 22%

Each square = 1 model percentage point. Tainara Lisboa gold · Lucia Szabová orange · color opacity: 100% = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Undefeated résumé

Szabová is 12-0 with titles at 135 and 125 and wins over UFC veterans Kalindra Faria (keylock) and Lucie Pudilová (five-round decision).

Lisboa's UFC line

2.01 significant strikes landed per minute, 46% defence, and 26 of 54 UFC minutes spent under control; her last two UFC appearances ended in losses.

The weight

Three rounds at 125 lb. Lisboa drops from bantamweight, where all four of her UFC appearances came; Szabová won the Oktagon flyweight title in April 2026.

Debut uncertainty

Zero UFC rounds for Szabová caps conviction at 4 even with a 62% lean.

Small cage

The 25-foot APEX keeps the fight near the fence, where Lisboa's clinch work lives and where Szabová's elbow stoppages happened.

Fight Scripts

0%
of simulations

Szabová finishes it

The Muay Thai wins the range, a clinch break or a failed shot gives up the arm or the elbows — submission (22%) or KO/TKO (18%) inside the distance, most likely early.

Scripted outcomes for Tainara Lisboa vs Lucia Szabová — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Tainara Lisboa win probability
0%
8%
18%
12%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Three of her seven pro wins are TKOs, all before the UFC; she has no knockdowns in four UFC bouts.

  • The Ravena Oliveira template — the most live upset path if the debut stays cautious.

  • The Clark rear-naked choke at 4:20 of Round 3, plus two regional arm-triangle wins.

Lucia Szabová win probability
0%
18%
22%
22%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Bolander and Fernandes by elbows and punches, Netza by head kick.

  • Álvarez, Holm and the five-round Pudilová defence, cut to three rounds.

  • Four armbars and the Faria keylock — 42% of her wins.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round
R1
Lucia
R2
Lucia
R3
Even
29-28
Szabová — takes the first two, Lisboa the third
~35% of decisions
29-28
Lisboa — clinch and control rounds on a cautious debut
~45% of decisions
30-27
Szabová — clear on range all fight
~20% of decisions

Model and price

Tainara Lisboa

Quote age unknown
Model win probability
38%
Fair odds
+163
Reference quote
+540 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds
2.63
Estimated EV
+143.2%
Edge vs no-vig market
+23.0 pp

Lucia Szabová

Quote age unknown
Model win probability
62%
Fair odds
-163
Reference quote
-750 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds
1.61
Estimated EV
-29.7%
Edge vs no-vig market
-23.0 pp

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash marks a price without a same-book pair to compare.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Quotes listed with a date but no time are treated as undated.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Tainara Lisboa

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 2.64 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Lucia Szabová

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 1.62 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

Model fair prices: Szabová inside the distance 40% (fair +150), Szabová by submission 22% (+355), Szabová by KO/TKO 18% (+456), Lisboa by decision 18% (+456), Lisboa by submission 12% (+733); the fight goes the distance 40% (+150). Szabová on the moneyline is a bet only at −163 or better; Lisboa is the value side only at longer than +163. The cleanest Szabová angle is inside the distance, where her 75% career finish rate meets a fighter who has been stopped in both of her last two.

Conviction
0
4/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Szabová 62 / Lisboa 38. The unbeaten two-weight champion is the lean. Her UFC debut is why it is not higher. Lean: Lucia Szabová.

What backs the lean

  • 12-0, with Oktagon titles at bantamweight and flyweight

  • Wins over UFC veterans Kalindra Faria (keylock) and Lucie Pudilová (five-round decision)

  • Nine finishes in 12 wins, in every round, against a fighter stopped in both of her last two

  • Lisboa lands 2.01 per minute and defends 46% across her four UFC bantamweight appearances

What limits it

  • Szabová has zero UFC rounds

  • Lisboa has already won and lost in this cage, including a Round 3 submission win

  • Lisboa's clinch work and late takedowns suit a cautious first Octagon night

  • A regional finish rate does not automatically survive a first UFC booking

Final Assessment

In roughly 62 of 100 readings, Lucia Szabová wins the range with her Muay Thai, punishes Lisboa's slow output and finishes by submission (22%) or KO/TKO (18%), or takes a decision (22%) the way she did against Álvarez and Pudilová.

In the other 38, Tainara Lisboa drags her first Octagon night to the fence, wins the clinch and the late wrestling, and takes a decision (18%) or finds a choke (12%) as she did against Clark. Her knockout share is 8%.

Szabová 62 / Lisboa 38, conviction 4 out of 10. The unbeaten champion is the lean. The Octagon debut is why it is not higher.

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