The APEX gets a top-six welterweight main event built on two opposite games. On Saturday, November 7, No. 5 Gabriel Bonfim (20-1), owner of the welterweight division's best striking defense, meets No. 6 Sean Brady (19-2), the wrestler who guillotined Leon Edwards in the fourth round of a five-round main event. Thirteen bouts are on the card. Model lean: Brady 55–45. Live on Paramount+ at 8:00 PM ET / 5:00 PM PT.
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Range against the clinch over five rounds: No. 5 Gabriel Bonfim (20-1), the division's best striking defense, against No. 6 Sean Brady (19-2), who banks 131 seconds of control per round and guillotined Leon Edwards. Model lean: Brady 55–45, conviction 4/10.
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Main event
Welterweight · 5 rounds
Market differences are not a ranking of best bets. Conviction is editorial; a close matchup does not automatically mean poor data.
Fights shown: 16/16 · Analyses available: 14/16
Tactical key
Brady wants a small cage: feints and low kicks to get close, then a body lock and a walk to the fence, the route that broke down Leon Edwards. Bonfim needs open space, jabbing down and chopping the lead leg as he did against Belal Muhammad, with a right hand waiting for a chin that has failed at range. Every trip to the fence banks rounds for Brady.
Tactical key
Suarez wins fights by getting on top early and staying there, the way she rode Amanda Lemos and choked out Loopy Godinez. Jandiroba has never been finished and is most dangerous in scrambles, but her losses have come when opponents out-landed her on the feet. If her takedown defence holds through the opening round, the later rounds open up for her.
Tactical key
Smith fights in a hurry: he wants top position early and the back soon after, the way he choked out SuYoung You. Grant has never been knocked out, but his losses tend to start the same way — hurt or taken down early, then caught in a choke, as Charles Jourdain showed. If the veteran survives the opening minutes on his feet, his volume and leg kicks take over.
Tactical key
Ko wins fights from top position: he rode Oban Elliott and Phil Rowe through most of their fights, then lost when Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani stuffed his shots and put him on his back instead. Turman is a jiu-jitsu black belt returning from a nearly three-year layoff, and Andre Petroski showed how his takedown defence gives way. His opening is the scramble after Ko's entries.
Tactical key
Fernando breaks opponents to the body — a knee to the midsection finished Rafael Tobias — and Elekana's only UFC loss came when Bogdan Guskov's body shots drained him in the second round. Elekana's answer is the scramble: both of his Octagon finishes came from the back after his right hand had stunned the other man.
Tactical key
Kondratavičius is longer, younger and sharper over the first exchanges, so Petroski has to survive the opening range battle and turn the clinch into a wrestling fight along the fence. The later rounds favour Petroski's control and pace; the fight flips if Kondratavičius lands clean elbows or hooks on the entries before that grind can begin.
Model estimate
Tactical key
Silva's route is the mat: she submitted three straight UFC opponents in the first round, and Fernandes has spent long stretches underneath against Jasmine Jasudavicius and Tereza Bledá. Fernandes wants range and volume from southpaw, where her output runs well ahead of Silva's. Silva's own takedown defence is the weak link — if she ends up on her back, the fight turns toward Fernandes.
Model estimate
Tactical key
Souza fights long behind the jab and straight punches, and his clearest work against Ding Meng came in the final round. Parsons has to close that distance and repeat the Danny Roberts pattern — legs and body first, then upstairs — and he returns after more than three years out of the cage. If Souza's range survives the early rounds, the fight tilts toward the fresher man.
Tactical key
Magomedov has finished every opponent of his career, most inside the first round, and his twister of Baghdasaryan showed how fast a single takedown becomes a submission. Delano's answer is the pace that broke Ruchała: survive the opening round, punish every entry with knees and body kicks, and drag the unbeaten finisher into a third round he has rarely seen.
Tactical key
Bashi's two UFC losses came to Rodriguez and Delgado, who beat him on the feet while he shot and missed; Brennan is no such striker, but his chokes punish exactly that kind of failed entry. If Bashi finishes his shots and rides from the top, the rounds stack up; if Brennan catches the neck in a scramble, a single exchange flips it.
Tactical key
Nakamura's biggest finishes have come from a southpaw knee, the latest after Sebastian Szalay had out-worked him for two rounds. Schmid's cleanest work in his debut went to the body and legs, exactly where Szalay hurt Nakamura, so his kicks can build a lead only if he stops stepping straight into the pocket where that knee waits.
Tactical key
Cachoeira wins fights in the opening minutes, charging forward behind uppercuts, and loses them once an opponent survives the rush and either counters her entries, as Edwards did, or drops her and takes her back, as Chandler did. Milošević broke Hailey Cowan with patient body punches; her task is to weather the early storm before sharper striking and a submission game take over.
Tactical key
Raposo needs to make each transition end in a stable position. Degli's regional record and Contender Series submission suggest that a prolonged scramble can keep generating finishing opportunities, but those results do not establish a comparable UFC rate sample.
Editorial estimate
Tactical key
Petersen wants the fight on the fence and the mat, where his pressure and top control decided his recent wins and where a lighter debutant has barely been tested. Lorenço's case is the opening round: he finishes early behind a clean right hand, and Petersen has been dropped by clean punches before. If Petersen's entries arrive without eating that counter, the fight drifts his way.
Deep Dive
The full story behind UFC Vegas — the narrative, the announced bouts, the questions everyone asks, and how the model reads an evolving card.
The Story
This is one of the best main events the APEX will host all year: two of the division's top six, with opposite plans for the same twenty-five minutes. Gabriel "Marretinha" Bonfim (20-1, No. 5) entered the UFC 13-0 with every win a stoppage, has lost only once, to Nicolas Dalby, and has rebuilt into a rangy kickboxer: he owns the welterweight division's best striking defense (64%, first among 54) and swept former champion Belal Muhammad 50-45 on all three cards in June with zero takedowns landed. Across from him, Sean Brady (19-2, No. 6) banks 131 seconds of control per round to Bonfim's 38, has been taken down twice on fifteen attempts across eleven UFC fights (87% takedown defense), and has solved this assignment before, guillotining Leon Edwards from mount in Round 4 of a five-round main event. Bonfim wants open space; Brady wants the fence, and whoever owns the distance owns the fight.
14 active bouts. Main card: Gabriel Bonfim vs. Sean Brady (welterweight, 5 rounds); Virna Jandiroba vs. Tatiana Suarez (women's strawweight, 3 rounds); Davey Grant vs. Elijah Smith (bantamweight, 3 rounds); Seok Hyeon Ko vs. Wellington Turman (welterweight, 3 rounds); Billy Elekana vs. Lucas Fernando (light heavyweight, 3 rounds); Andre Petroski vs. Mantas Kondratavičius (middleweight, 3 rounds). Prelims: Karine Silva vs. Gabriella Fernandes (women's flyweight); José Souza vs. Jonny Parsons (welterweight); José Delano vs. Murtazali Magomedov (featherweight); Austin Bashi vs. Lucas Brennan (featherweight); Ollie Schmid vs. Keiichiro Nakamura (featherweight); Priscila Cachoeira vs. Nina Milošević (women's bantamweight); Mitch Raposo vs. Marcos Degli (flyweight); Thomas Petersen vs. Gabriel Lorenço (heavyweight). Cancelled: Alvin Hines vs. Gabriel Lorenço — bout off the card; Mantas Kondratavičius vs. Wes Schultz — Schultz withdrew.
The prelims carry eight bouts, including Thomas Petersen vs. Gabriel Lorenço. The model leans Elijah Smith (10-1) 63% over Davey Grant (18-8), a veteran who has never been knocked out in twenty-six pro fights but was submitted in four of his seven UFC losses; José Souza 52% over Jonny Parsons, the closest call on the card; Murtazali Magomedov (11-0, every win a finish) 58% over the volume of José Delano; Seok Hyeon Ko 66% over Wellington Turman, who returns after almost three years away; Austin Bashi 60% over Lucas Brennan; Lucas Fernando 60% over Billy Elekana; Thomas Petersen vs. Gabriel Lorenço as an editorial handicap, not the withdrawn Hines forecast; Keiichiro Nakamura 70% over Ollie Schmid; and Nina Milošević 72% over Priscila Cachoeira, the widest lean on the card. Every bout has its own fight page with a full stylistic breakdown, round-by-round projections and the model's fair price for both sides.
Main Event — Welterweight
01Bonfim vs. Brady
No. 6 Brady banks 131 seconds of control per round to Bonfim's 38; No. 5 Bonfim owns the division's best striking defense (64%) and a 50-45 sweep of Belal Muhammad. Model lean Brady 55% (conviction 4/10).
Full breakdown
Co-Main — Women's Strawweight
02Jandiroba vs. Suarez
No. 2 Suarez has ridden Amanda Lemos and choked out Loopy Godinez since her only loss; No. 3 Jandiroba stops 73% of takedowns and has never been finished in 27 fights. Model lean Suarez 62% (conviction 5/10).
Full breakdown
Main Card — Middleweight
03Petroski vs. Kondratavičius
Andre Petroski (13-6) replaces Wes Schultz opposite Mantas Kondratavičius (9-1). The fight page is an editorial handicap, and the old Schultz forecast does not carry over.
Full breakdown
Prelims — Women's Flyweight
04Silva vs. Fernandes
No. 11 Silva (19-7) has the division's highest submission-attempt rate and opened her UFC run with three first-round submissions; No. 14 Fernandes (11-4) is a southpaw volume striker who has never been submitted. Model lean Silva 54% (conviction 5/10).
Full breakdown
14 active bouts. Main card: Gabriel Bonfim vs. Sean Brady (welterweight, 5 rounds); Virna Jandiroba vs. Tatiana Suarez (women's strawweight, 3 rounds); Davey Grant vs. Elijah Smith (bantamweight, 3 rounds); Seok Hyeon Ko vs. Wellington Turman (welterweight, 3 rounds); Billy Elekana vs. Lucas Fernando (light heavyweight, 3 rounds); Andre Petroski vs. Mantas Kondratavičius (middleweight, 3 rounds). Prelims: Karine Silva vs. Gabriella Fernandes (women's flyweight); José Souza vs. Jonny Parsons (welterweight); José Delano vs. Murtazali Magomedov (featherweight); Austin Bashi vs. Lucas Brennan (featherweight); Ollie Schmid vs. Keiichiro Nakamura (featherweight); Priscila Cachoeira vs. Nina Milošević (women's bantamweight); Mitch Raposo vs. Marcos Degli (flyweight); Thomas Petersen vs. Gabriel Lorenço (heavyweight). Cancelled: Alvin Hines vs. Gabriel Lorenço — bout off the card; Mantas Kondratavičius vs. Wes Schultz — Schultz withdrew.
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady streams live from the Meta APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday, November 7, 2026, with the main card beginning at 8:00 PM ET on Paramount+. Local Las Vegas time is 5:00 PM PT — a standard US Saturday evening main-card slot for a studio-style APEX event. Because this card lands after the US clocks fall back, the United Kingdom and Ireland tune in at 1:00 AM GMT on Sunday, Central Europe at 2:00 AM CET, and Abu Dhabi at 5:00 AM Gulf Standard Time on Sunday morning. Prelims start at 5:00 PM ET / 2:00 PM PT, three hours before the main card, also on Paramount+. All listed times are estimates and remain subject to UFC broadcast changes; our timezone grid covers ET, PT, GMT, CET, and GST at a glance.
14 active bouts. Main card: Gabriel Bonfim vs. Sean Brady (welterweight, 5 rounds); Virna Jandiroba vs. Tatiana Suarez (women's strawweight, 3 rounds); Davey Grant vs. Elijah Smith (bantamweight, 3 rounds); Seok Hyeon Ko vs. Wellington Turman (welterweight, 3 rounds); Billy Elekana vs. Lucas Fernando (light heavyweight, 3 rounds); Andre Petroski vs. Mantas Kondratavičius (middleweight, 3 rounds). Prelims: Karine Silva vs. Gabriella Fernandes (women's flyweight); José Souza vs. Jonny Parsons (welterweight); José Delano vs. Murtazali Magomedov (featherweight); Austin Bashi vs. Lucas Brennan (featherweight); Ollie Schmid vs. Keiichiro Nakamura (featherweight); Priscila Cachoeira vs. Nina Milošević (women's bantamweight); Mitch Raposo vs. Marcos Degli (flyweight); Thomas Petersen vs. Gabriel Lorenço (heavyweight). Cancelled: Alvin Hines vs. Gabriel Lorenço — bout off the card; Mantas Kondratavičius vs. Wes Schultz — Schultz withdrew.
MMA Analytics favors Sean Brady at 55% win probability versus Gabriel Bonfim at 45% in the welterweight main event, a fair price of Brady −122 / Bonfim +122. The lean is positional control over 25 minutes: Brady banks 131 seconds of control per round to Bonfim's 38, has stopped 13 of 15 takedown attempts in the UFC (87%), and has already solved a taller, rangier former champion when he guillotined Leon Edwards in Round 4. Bonfim owns the division's best striking defense (64%, first among 54 welterweights), a 50-45 sweep of Belal Muhammad won with zero takedowns landed and a live guillotine behind thirteen career submissions, but all seventeen of his career finishes came in Rounds 1–3, while Brady has two fourth-round stoppages. Conviction is 4/10: Bonfim's takedown defense has never faced a wrestler of Brady's grade, and Brady was stopped in 3:27 by Michael Morales in November 2025.
Beyond the main event, MMA Analytics leans Tatiana Suarez 62% over Virna Jandiroba, Karine Silva 54% over Gabriella Fernandes, Elijah Smith 63% over Davey Grant, José Souza 52% over Jonny Parsons, Murtazali Magomedov 58% over José Delano, Seok Hyeon Ko 66% over Wellington Turman, Austin Bashi 60% over Lucas Brennan, Lucas Fernando 60% over Billy Elekana, Thomas Petersen vs. Gabriel Lorenço as an editorial handicap, Keiichiro Nakamura 70% over Ollie Schmid and Nina Milošević 72% over Priscila Cachoeira. Andre Petroski vs. Mantas Kondratavičius and Thomas Petersen vs. Gabriel Lorenço are editorial handicaps; the previous Schultz and Hines forecasts do not carry over. The highest convictions on the card, 6/10, belong to Smith, Ko and Milošević; Souza vs. Parsons is the closest call at 52–48, with a conviction of 2/10. Each fight page carries the model's win split, method breakdown and fair prices for both fighters.
Yes. Gabriel Bonfim vs. Sean Brady is official as the five-round welterweight main event at the Meta APEX in Las Vegas on November 7, 2026, with Virna Jandiroba vs. Tatiana Suarez as the co-main and twelve more bouts on the same card.
UFC experience describes the size of the available sample, not the chance of winning. A short UFC record leaves more uncertainty about how a fighter performs against different styles. Opponent quality, recent changes and missing statistics also matter; five bouts alone do not establish that a prediction is well calibrated.
Limited UFC sample
<3 UFC Bouts
Fewer than three UFC fights. Analysis leans more heavily on pre-UFC performance patterns and fighting style.
Developing UFC sample
3-4 UFC Bouts
Some UFC evidence is available, but a few matchups can strongly influence the averages. Check opponent quality and the limitations in each analysis.
Established UFC sample
5+ UFC Bouts
More UFC observations are available. This does not guarantee predictive accuracy; changes in opposition, injuries and style can still limit the estimate.
Note: All fights receive thorough analysis regardless of UFC experience levels. Analyst conviction is an editorial assessment, not a measured probability or statistical confidence interval.
Yellow marks our forecast favorite. The comparison shows our win estimate against the probability implied by each quote. Gap is in percentage points (pp), includes bookmaker margin, and is not expected return.
| Fight | Fighter A | Win estimate A | Market / implied A | Fighter B | Win estimate B | Market / implied B | Model / market & our read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bonfim vs Brady🟢 | Gabriel Bonfim | 45% | —— | Sean BradyModel favorite | 55% | —— | Win probabilityModelMarketGapGabriel Bonfim45%——Sean Brady55%—— Our read: We narrowly lean Sean Brady. A market price is needed to assess value. |
| Jandiroba vs Suarez🟢 | Virna Jandiroba | 38% | —— | Tatiana SuarezModel favorite | 62% | —— | Win probabilityModelMarketGapVirna Jandiroba38%——Tatiana Suarez62%—— Our read: We favor Tatiana Suarez. A market price is needed to assess value. |
| Grant vs Smith🟡 | Davey Grant | 37% | —— | Elijah SmithModel favorite | 63% | —— | Win probabilityModelMarketGapDavey Grant37%——Elijah Smith63%—— Our read: We favor Elijah Smith. A market price is needed to assess value. |
| Ko vs Turman🟡 | Seok Hyeon KoModel favorite | 66% | —— | Wellington Turman | 34% | —— | Win probabilityModelMarketGapSeok Hyeon Ko66%——Wellington Turman34%—— Our read: We favor Seok Hyeon Ko. A market price is needed to assess value. |
| Silva vs Fernandes🟢 | Karine SilvaModel favorite | 54% | —— | Gabriella Fernandes | 46% | —— | Win probabilityModelMarketGapKarine Silva54%——Gabriella Fernandes46%—— Our read: We narrowly lean Karine Silva. A market price is needed to assess value. |
