Karine Silva vs Gabriella Fernandes: analysis & prediction

MAIN CARD · WOMEN'S FLYWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady
Karine Silva — Women's Flyweight fighter

Karine Silva

“Killer”
19W7L
BJJ / Submission Grappler
VS
Gabriella Fernandes — Women's Flyweight fighter

Gabriella Fernandes

“Gabi”
11W4L
Southpaw Volume Striker

The division's top submission rate against a southpaw who has never been submitted

Women's FlyweightMeta APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, United StatesNovember 7, 202625ft Octagon (Meta APEX)

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Silva's route is the mat: she submitted three straight UFC opponents in the first round, and Fernandes has spent long stretches underneath against Jasmine Jasudavicius and Tereza Bledá. Fernandes wants range and volume from southpaw, where her output runs well ahead of Silva's. Silva's own takedown defence is the weak link — if she ends up on her back, the fight turns toward Fernandes.

Paths that change the fight

  • Karine SilvaGet the fight to the mat in the first round, take the back, and finish it the way she finished three straight UFC opponents — before Fernandes's southpaw volume builds a lead.
  • Gabriella FernandesKeep it standing, out-land Silva round after round, stop the entries with a 69% takedown defence, and bank a decision if the choke never comes.
What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 5/10
  • Fernandes's 69% takedown defence and fifteen fights without a submission loss.
  • She out-lands Silva in every round on their averages.

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Karine Silva

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
54%
Fair odds
-117
Reference quote
—
Fair decimal odds
1.85

Gabriella Fernandes

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
46%
Fair odds
+117
Reference quote
—
Fair decimal odds
2.17
Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Sources and data limitations

Career statistics and fight results through September 2026. Composite scores, win probabilities, fair prices and conviction are MMA Analytics model outputs.

Model methodology
Read the evidenceInspect prices and assumptions
01

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Two Brazilian flyweights with long Octagon résumés and opposite ways of winning. Karine "Killer" Silva is 19-7 and 5-3 in the UFC, with seventeen stoppage wins — nine by knockout, eight by submission — and the highest submission-attempt rate in the division at 1.38 every fifteen minutes. She opened her UFC run with three straight first-round submissions, but her last five fights all went the distance and she has lost three of them, most recently to Maycee Barber and Jasmine Jasudavicius, who kept her underneath for long stretches. The hole is her takedown defence: opponents have completed twelve of seventeen attempts against her. Gabriella "Gabi" Fernandes is 11-4 and 3-3 in the UFC, a southpaw who lands 3.51 significant strikes per minute, stops 69% of takedowns and has never been submitted — but she absorbs 5.31 a minute, gives up long stretches of control when she is taken down, and was knocked out by Casey O'Neill in March. We take Silva 54% / Fernandes 46% at conviction 5 out of 10.

Karine Silva
Attribute
Gabriella Fernandes
32
Age
33
5'5" (65")
Height
+1" Fernandes5'6" (66")
67"+1" Silva
Reach
66"
37"
Leg Reach
+0.5" Fernandes37.5"
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
The Fighting Nerds
Team
MMA Masters (Miami)
Jun 4, 2022
Octagon Debut
Feb 25, 2023
5-3 across 8 bouts
UFC Record
3-3 across 6 bouts
66 sec
Control Time / Round
14 sec
Jiu-jitsu base — 8 career submissions, 2.08 TD/15 at 55% accuracy
Fighting Style
Southpaw striker — 3.51 SLpM, 69% TDD, minimal wrestling offense

The frames are almost identical — Fernandes an inch taller, Silva an inch longer, leg reach within half an inch — so the asymmetry is role, not size. Silva is the orthodox grappler who wants to close the distance, clinch and take the back; Fernandes is the southpaw who wants to stay at boxing range and out-work her. Silva is eight months younger. Both women are Brazilian and neither carries a home-cage edge in Las Vegas.

Venue Factor
The 25-foot Meta APEX cage helps the woman who wants to close the distance. Silva does not need to chase Fernandes across a large canvas to find the clinch and the fence, and Fernandes's two longest nights in the Octagon — more than eleven minutes underneath Jasmine Jasudavicius and nearly eleven under Tereza Bledá — both began with takedowns against the cage. The same room rewards visible damage in the standing minutes, which is where Fernandes wins rounds.
02

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Karine Silva exchanging punches during a UFC bout

Karine Silva

Pro Record
19-7-0
UFC Record
5-3 across eight UFC bouts since June 2022
Streak
Two straight losses — decisions to Maycee Barber and Jasmine Jasudavicius
Finish Rate
89% (17 of 19 wins) — 9 KO/TKO, 8 submissions
Avg Fight Time
10:50
Chin · Durable — one knockout loss in twenty-six professional fights, in 2013; all four UFC-era losses are decisionsSOS · Ranked-levelBJJ-heavy finisher

Silva arrived from the Contender Series in 2021 and opened her UFC run with three straight first-round submissions — a brabo choke of Poliana Botelho, a kneebar of Ketlen Souza and a guillotine of Maryna Moroz after dropping her. Since then all five of her fights have gone the distance and she is 2-3: wins over Ariane da Silva and Dione Barbosa, losses to Viviane Araújo, Maycee Barber and Jasmine Jasudavicius. The pattern in the losses is position. Barber controlled her for more than six minutes and out-landed her 55 to 21; Jasudavicius took her down three times and held her for more than eight minutes. She lands 2.27 significant strikes per minute, the lowest rate in the division's pool, and opponents have completed twelve of seventeen takedown attempts against her. The weapons are still there — 1.38 submission attempts per fifteen minutes is the division's highest.

Gabriella Fernandes portrait

Gabriella Fernandes

Pro Record
11-4-0
UFC Record
3-3 across six UFC bouts since February 2023
Streak
Lost her last — knocked out by Casey O'Neill in the first round, Mar 28, 2026
Finish Rate
55% (6 of 11 wins) — 3 KO/TKO, 3 submissions
Avg Fight Time
12:00
Chin · Stopped once — Casey O'Neill, first round, March 2026; never submitted in fifteen professional fightsSOS · UFC-levelSouthpaw volume striker

Fernandes came to the UFC as the LFA interim flyweight champion and lost her first two Octagon fights on the cards to wrestlers — Jasmine Jasudavicius held her down for 11:31 and Tereza Bledá for 10:51. She then won three straight: a split decision over Carli Judice in which she was out-landed 169 to 119, a rear-naked choke of Wang Cong at 3:49 of the second round after dropping her, and a decision over Julija Stoliarenko in which she stopped all six takedown attempts. In March 2026 Casey O'Neill knocked her out in 3:11. Her UFC line is a volume striker's — 3.51 landed per minute at 47% — with an expensive defensive side: 5.31 absorbed per minute and just 14 seconds of her own control per round against 99 for her opponents.

Karine Silva
0 dealt · 0 absorbed
Knockdown Exchange
Knockdowns dealt vs absorbed.
Gabriella Fernandes
0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Karine Silvasignature weapons

ChokesGuillotines of Maryna Moroz (R1 4:59, after dropping her) and Yan Qihui on the Contender Series, a brabo choke of Poliana Botelho (R1 4:55), a triangle and a rear-naked choke on the regional circuit
×5
Leg Locks and ArmbarA kneebar of Ketlen Souza at 1:45 of Round 1 in the UFC, a heel hook and an armbar before it
×3
Punches and ElbowsNine knockout wins, all before the UFC and seven of them in the first round
×9

Gabriella Fernandessignature weapons

Rear-Naked ChokeWang Cong at 3:49 of Round 2 after dropping her, and Katarzyna Biegajło in 2019
×2
GuillotineKaroline Martins in Round 2 for the LFA interim title, September 2022
×1
PunchesThree stoppages before the UFC — Iasmin Lucindo in the first round of her debut, then two third-round finishes
×3

Karine Silva

L
Jasmine Jasudavicius
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: ranked

R3
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott — Apr 18, 2026
L
Maycee Barber
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: ranked

R3
UFC 323 — Dec 6, 2025
W
Dione Barbosa
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: veteran

R3
UFC 319 — Aug 16, 2025
L
Viviane Araújo
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: ranked

R3
UFC 309 — Nov 16, 2024
W
Ariane da Silva
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: veteran

R3
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez — Apr 27, 2024
Pattern

Five straight fights to the scorecards, 2-3 in that run. The wins were built on position — five of six takedowns and seven and a half minutes of control against Ariane da Silva — and the losses came when the position went the other way: Barber controlled her for 6:20 and out-landed her 55 to 21, and Jasudavicius took her down three times and controlled her for 8:09 while Silva landed no takedowns at all. She even beat Dione Barbosa while being held down for more than five minutes. The submission threat is intact — two attempts against Jasudavicius, two against Barbosa — but it has not produced a finish since August 2023.

Gabriella Fernandes

L
Casey O'Neill
KO/TKO — Punches

Opponent context: ranked

R1 (3:11)
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer — Mar 28, 2026
W
Julija Stoliarenko
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: veteran

R3
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez — Aug 9, 2025
W
Wang Cong
Submission — Rear-naked choke

Opponent context: prospect

R2 (3:49)
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo — Nov 23, 2024
W
Carli Judice
Decision — Split

Opponent context: prospect

R3
UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira — Jun 15, 2024
L
Tereza Bledá
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: prospect

R3
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier — Jun 17, 2023
Pattern

3-2 in five, and the losses bracket the run. Bledá took her down three times and held her for nearly eleven minutes; O'Neill knocked her out in 3:11. In between she won three straight while being out-landed in two of them — Judice landed 169 to her 119 in a split decision, and Wang landed 46 to 18 before Fernandes dropped her and finished with a rear-naked choke. Against Stoliarenko she defended all six takedown attempts and won a unanimous decision. She is at her best when the fight stays standing and she is not being hit back.

Karine Silva

Win Methods
Wins by Round

Gabriella Fernandes

Win Methods
Wins by Round
Critical Insight
Silva is a first-round finisher by history: thirteen of her seventeen stoppages came in the opening round, including all three of her UFC finishes. Fernandes finishes later and less often — one first-round stoppage in eleven wins, with most of her finishes in the second and third rounds and five wins on the cards. The recent Octagon record inverts the career one: Silva's last five fights all went the distance, while Fernandes's last five include a second-round choke and a first-round knockout loss. The model reads Silva's early equity as real but no longer automatic.

Common Opponents

OpponentKarineGabriella
Jasmine JasudaviciusL· UD (Apr 2026)L· UD (Feb 2023)
Both women lost to the same wrestler the same way. Jasudavicius took Silva down three times and controlled her for 8:09 while Silva landed none; she took Fernandes down four times and held her for 11:31. Neither was finished, and neither could keep the fight standing.
03

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and UFC experience before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

SLpM 25% · StrAcc 30% · StrDef 30% · SApM 15%

0
Karine
0
Gabriella

Four points to Fernandes on output and accuracy — 3.51 landed per minute at 47% against 2.27 at 40% — while Silva absorbs half as much, 2.64 a minute against 5.31. Both sit below the flyweight mean of 4.86 landed per minute.

Grappling

TD/15 25% · TDAcc 25% · TDDef 30% · Sub/15 20%

0
Karine
0
Gabriella

Eight points to Silva: 2.08 takedowns per fifteen at 55% and the division's highest submission rate, 1.38. Fernandes's 69% takedown defence is the counter, but her own offense is 0.42 takedowns per fifteen at 18%. Silva's 29% takedown defence — twelve of seventeen conceded — debits her gauge.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

0
Karine
0
Gabriella

Two points apart with inverted profiles. Fernandes strikes better, Silva grapples better, and neither gap decides the fight by itself — the question is which one gets to be the fight.

MetricKarineGabriella
Avg Fight Time10:5012:00
Control / Round66 sec14 sec
Opponent Control / Round87 sec99 sec
Pace TierLow volume — 2.27 SLpM (23rd of 23)Moderate — 3.51 SLpM (16th of 23)
Recent Form2-3 in last five, all decisions3-2 in last five, R1 KO loss

Archetype Base Rate

Submission Artist 50%50% Muay Thai Fighter

172-fight archetype sample — 86-86 · Submission artists and Muay Thai fighters have split 172 meetings exactly 86-86. The prior is neutral; the 54-46 lean comes from Silva's submission rate and first-round history against a striker who gives up long stretches of control once she is taken down.

Karine SilvaGabriella Fernandes

Women's Flyweight

· 23 fighters

Rank bars use the recorded division cohort. Where a rank is unavailable, the comparison shows the difference from the published division average; the white marker denotes equality. Percentage differences are percentage points (pp). Higher is not always better: fewer strikes absorbed is preferable. Missing benchmarks are not estimated.

StatKarineKarine comparisonDiv avgGabriella comparisonGabriella
SLpM2.27
23/23
4.86
16/23
3.51
Str Acc40%
19/23
45.7%
10/23
47%
Str Def54%
17/23
56.5%
17/23
53%
SApM2.64
6/23
4.14
19/23
5.31
KD Avg0.17
8/23
0.37
8/23
0.21
Damage Ratio0.86
20/23
1.26
22/23
0.66
TD/152.08
7/23
1.44
19/23
0.42
TD Acc55% (12 of 22)
Not available
—
Not available
18% (2 of 11)
TD Def29% (12 conceded of 17)
Not available
—
Not available
69% (9 conceded of 29)
Sub/151.38
1/23elite
0.42
16/23
0.21
Control / Round66 sec
Not available
—
Not available
14 sec
Avg Fight Time10:50
Not available
—
Not available
12:00
Statistical Verdict
Fernandes wins the output cells, Silva wins the grappling and absorption cells, and both sit below the flyweight mean in striking volume. The decisive pairings are Silva's division-best submission rate against a woman who has never been submitted, and Silva's 29% takedown defence against Fernandes's near-absent takedown offense — 0.42 per fifteen minutes. Fernandes rarely shoots, which means Silva's weakest number may never be tested; Fernandes's weakest position, underneath, is where Silva wants to put her.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

Control Time per Round (sec)

Karine Silva

  • Eight UFC fights behind the first-round line, five behind the second and third — three of her fights ended in the first round.
  • Her first rounds carry her grappling: five of six takedown attempts landed and three submission attempts, with 0.13 knockdowns a round.
  • Control peaks in the second at 94 seconds, where her ground share also peaks at 22.2% — then falls to 50 seconds and no ground strikes at all in the third.
  • She is leg-heavy on the feet — 36.6% of her first-round strikes and 41.2% of her third-round strikes go low.

Gabriella Fernandes

  • Six UFC fights behind the first-round line, five behind the second and four behind the third.
  • Her output is flat and steady — 15.7, 17.4 and 18.0 significant strikes a round — and her accuracy peaks in the second at 56.1%, the round of her only UFC knockdown.
  • She has landed no ground strikes in fifteen UFC rounds, and her own control never tops 29 seconds a round.
  • Her opponents control her for 62, 123 and 123 seconds in the three rounds and land 35.8 significant strikes in an average third round — the late rounds are where she has been out-worked.
Critical Insight
Fernandes out-lands Silva in every round on these averages — 15.7 to 12.6, 17.4 to 9.0, 18.0 to 10.2 — with a flat, repeatable standing profile. Silva's counter lives in two places: her first-round takedowns (five of six landed) and her second-round control (94 seconds, with 22% of her strikes on the ground). The positional numbers are the story: Fernandes has produced no offense from the mat in fifteen UFC rounds and spends more than two minutes of the average second and third round underneath. If Silva's takedowns land, the round belongs to her; if they do not, the volume gap grows every round.

Strike targeting

Karine

Head
42%
Body
23%
Legs
35%

Gabriella

Head
65%
Body
21%
Legs
14%

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

KarineGabriella
76%Distance89%
15%Clinch11%
9%Ground0%

Share of significant strikes landed at distance, in the clinch and on the ground across each fighter's UFC rounds, weighted by strike volume.

04

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much
Open SpaceGabriella owns it

3.51 landed per minute at 47% against 2.27 at 40%, from southpaw

Pocket / ExchangesEven

Fernandes lands more, Silva absorbs half as much — 2.64 a minute against 5.31

Clinch / EntriesKarine owns it

2.08 takedowns per fifteen at 55% against a 69% sprawl

GroundKarine owns it

Division-best submission rate and 66 sec of control a round, against no ground offense in fifteen UFC rounds

Path to Victory

Karine Silva

Get the fight to the mat in the first round, take the back, and finish it the way she finished three straight UFC opponents — before Fernandes's southpaw volume builds a lead.

Why they win
01
The division's top submission rate

1.38 attempts per fifteen minutes, 1st of 23, and eight career submissions across chokes, a kneebar, a heel hook and an armbar.

02
First-round finishing history

Thirteen of seventeen career stoppages in the opening round, including three straight UFC submissions.

03
Takedown accuracy

2.08 per fifteen minutes at 55% — five of six in first rounds — against an opponent who has been held down for more than eleven minutes in a single fight.

04
Lower absorption

2.64 significant strikes absorbed per minute, 6th in the division, against Fernandes's 5.31.

05
Control time

66 seconds of control a round against Fernandes's 14 — the only positional offense in the fight belongs to Silva.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Shoot early

    Five of six first-round takedowns have landed. The first round is where her finishes live.

  2. 2
    Chain from the clinch

    Fernandes stops 69% of takedowns in open space; the fence and the tie-up are where Jasudavicius and Bledá got her down.

  3. 3
    Take the back, not the guard

    Fernandes has never been submitted and has a rear-naked choke of her own — top control and the back take are the cleanest path.

  4. 4
    Never accept bottom

    Twelve of seventeen takedowns against her have landed. If reversed, stand up immediately.

  5. 5
    Force it before the third

    Her ground share falls to zero in third rounds while Fernandes's output rises to 18.0. Waiting favours the striker.

Path to Victory

Gabriella Fernandes

Keep it standing, out-land Silva round after round, stop the entries with a 69% takedown defence, and bank a decision if the choke never comes.

Why they win
01
Volume on the feet

3.51 landed per minute at 47% against 2.27 at 40%; she out-lands Silva in every round on their averages.

02
Takedown defence

69% — twenty of twenty-nine attempts stopped, including all six from Julija Stoliarenko.

03
Never submitted

Fifteen professional fights without a submission loss.

04
Silva's takedown defence

Opponents have completed twelve of seventeen attempts against Silva. Fernandes rarely shoots, but a reversal in a scramble is available.

05
Silva's recent form

Five straight decisions and losses to Barber and Jasudavicius — the submission has not produced a finish since August 2023.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Sprawl and circle off the fence

    Her two worst Octagon nights began with takedowns against the cage.

  2. 2
    Volume from southpaw

    Jab, straight left and body work — 3.51 landed per minute is the weapon.

  3. 3
    Punish the entries

    A grappler changing levels is a target; Silva absorbs little because she is rarely standing long.

  4. 4
    Protect the chin

    O'Neill finished her in 3:11. Volume over power exchanges.

  5. 5
    If taken down, get up

    She has no ground offense to fall back on; every second underneath is a scoring round for Silva.

Danger Zone

How Karine Silva loses

  • The entries are stuffed, the fight stays at range, and Fernandes out-lands her for fifteen minutes — the Jasudavicius loss without the takedowns.

  • She is reversed in a scramble and spends the second round on her back — the position that cost her the Barber and Jasudavicius fights.

  • The submission attempts come and go without a finish, and a sixth straight decision goes to the busier striker.

Danger Zone

How Gabriella Fernandes loses

  • Silva's first takedown lands in the opening minute, the back follows, and the division's top submission rate finds a choke before the volume matters.

  • She is held down for the second straight round, as Bledá and Jasudavicius held her, and loses the cards on control.

  • She loads up in the pocket, eats a counter, and the O'Neill knockout repeats.

The spine of the 54-46 lean

Submission Rate Against a Clean Record

Silva attempts submissions more often than any flyweight in the pool, 1.38 every fifteen minutes; Fernandes has never been submitted. The lean rests on the fact that Fernandes has also never been able to stop a determined wrestler from holding her down — more than eleven minutes under Jasudavicius, nearly eleven under Bledá — and a woman who is controlled for that long gives up her back eventually.

1.38
Silva's submission attempts per 15 minutes — 1st of 23
Fernandes's hidden tax

5.31 Absorbed per Minute

Fernandes lands 3.51 significant strikes a minute and absorbs 5.31 — the 19th-best rate of 23. She was out-landed 169 to 119 by Carli Judice and 46 to 18 by Wang Cong and won both. Silva lands only 2.27 a minute, so the damage exchange may never test Fernandes, but a clean counter as she enters is Silva's knockout route.

5.31
Fernandes's significant strikes absorbed per minute
Silva's finish rate has stalled

Five Straight Decisions

Seventeen of Silva's nineteen wins are stoppages, but her last five fights all went fifteen minutes and she lost three of them. Fernandes has five decision wins and is comfortable on the cards. If the sprawl holds, the decision path belongs to the underdog even with Silva the favourite.

Silva's other hole

29% Takedown Defence

Opponents have completed twelve of seventeen takedown attempts against Silva. Fernandes attempts 0.42 takedowns every fifteen minutes and has landed two of eleven in the UFC, so the hole may never be tested directly — but in a grappling scramble the woman on top is not always the one who started it.

29%
Silva's takedown defence (12 of 17 conceded)
Jasmine Jasudavicius

The Shared Opponent

Jasudavicius beat both women the same way — takedowns and long control — holding Silva for 8:09 and Fernandes for 11:31. Silva's version of that game is the one she brings to this fight; Fernandes has not shown she can stop it.

The Five-Round Clock

Karine Silva danger windowGabriella Fernandes danger windowNeutral / contested
R1 · 0:00–5:00Silva's finishing window

Thirteen of her seventeen career stoppages and all three UFC finishes came in the first round, and five of her six first-round takedown attempts have landed. It is also the round in which O'Neill stopped Fernandes.

Critical Insight
Silva's equity peaks in the opening ten minutes, when her takedowns and submission attempts are most frequent. Fernandes's grows with every minute the fight stays standing. The model's finish-threat curve follows the same shape — heavy for Silva in the first round, heavier for Fernandes in the second and third.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

05

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things
1

Silva has the division's top submission rate and a first-round finishing history; Fernandes has never been submitted but has spent long stretches underneath against wrestlers. That overlap is the spine of the lean.

2

Fernandes out-lands Silva in every round on their averages, and Silva's last five fights all went the distance. If the takedowns fail, the decision path belongs to the underdog.

3

Model: Karine Silva 54% / Gabriella Fernandes 46%, conviction 5/10. Silva by submission and Fernandes by decision are the two largest outcomes, at 22% each.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Silva Submission — 22%Silva Decision — 20%Silva KO/TKO — 12%Fernandes Decision — 22%Fernandes KO/TKO — 14%Fernandes Submission — 10%

Each square = 1 model percentage point. Karine Silva gold · Gabriella Fernandes orange · color opacity: 100% = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Submission rate against a sprawl

1.38 attempts per fifteen and eight career submissions against 69% takedown defence and no submission losses — the largest single input, and the reason Silva's submission bucket is her biggest at 22.

Volume against absorption

Fernandes lands 3.51 a minute and absorbs 5.31; Silva lands 2.27 and absorbs 2.64. Volume favours Fernandes, damage economy favours Silva.

Position when it hits the mat

Silva controls 66 seconds a round; Fernandes 14, while her opponents control her for 99. Once the fight is on the floor, it has only ever gone one way for Fernandes.

Silva's 29% takedown defence

Twelve of seventeen conceded — a reversal path for Fernandes if a scramble goes wrong, even though she rarely shoots.

Recent form

Silva's five straight decisions against Fernandes's first-round knockout loss. Neither trend is cleanly favourable.

Fight Scripts

0%
of simulations

The Back Take

Silva's first takedown lands, the back follows, and the division's top submission rate converts — the largest single path and the spine of the lean.

Scripted outcomes for Karine Silva vs Gabriella Fernandes — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Karine Silva win probability
0%
12%
20%
22%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Real but tertiary — nine career knockouts, all before the UFC, and Fernandes was just stopped by O'Neill in the first round. Not the hunted path.

  • The control path when the takedowns land but the choke does not — the Ariane da Silva win, where she landed five of six takedowns and controlled seven and a half minutes.

  • The largest single bucket and the spine of the lean — the division's top submission rate against a sprawl that has never faced this level of submission offense.

Gabriella Fernandes win probability
0%
14%
22%
10%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • A counter as Silva enters, or damage accumulating on a low-output opponent — live at 14, not the base case.

  • Equal to Silva's submission bucket at 22 — sprawl, volume and Silva's run of five straight decisions.

  • The Wang Cong rear-naked choke and the Karoline Martins guillotine — opportunistic rather than systematic, ten points.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round
R1
Karine
R2
Even
R3
Gabriella
29-28 Silva
Takedowns and control take the first two
The control path when the takedowns land but the choke does not
29-28 Fernandes
Volume takes the second and third after a Silva first
The most likely card if Silva's entries stall
30-27 Fernandes
The sprawl holds for fifteen minutes
Requires Silva to fail on every entry

Model and price

Karine Silva

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
54%
Fair odds
-117
Reference quote
—
Fair decimal odds
1.85
Estimated EV
—
Edge vs no-vig market
—

Gabriella Fernandes

Insufficient price data
Model win probability
46%
Fair odds
+117
Reference quote
—
Fair decimal odds
2.17
Estimated EV
—
Edge vs no-vig market
—

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Karine Silva

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 1.86 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Gabriella Fernandes

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 2.18 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

The model's fair method prices: Silva by submission 22% (+355), Fernandes by decision 22% (+355), Silva by decision 20% (+400), Fernandes by KO/TKO 14% (+614), Silva by KO/TKO 12% (+733), Fernandes by submission 10% (+900). The fight ends inside the distance 58% of the time (−138) and goes the distance 42% (+138). Silva by submission is the structural lean; Fernandes by decision is the equal counter.

Conviction
0
5/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

A narrow grappler's lean on the division's top submission rate and a first-round finishing history, capped because the composites are two points apart, Fernandes has never been submitted, and Silva has gone the distance five straight times. Lean: Karine Silva.

What backs the lean

  • Division-best 1.38 submission attempts per fifteen minutes and eight career submissions.

  • 55% takedown accuracy, five of six in first rounds.

  • Fernandes gives up long control when she is taken down — 11:31 to Jasudavicius, 10:51 to Bledá.

  • Silva absorbs 2.64 per minute against Fernandes's 5.31.

What limits it

  • Fernandes's 69% takedown defence and fifteen fights without a submission loss.

  • She out-lands Silva in every round on their averages.

  • Silva's 29% takedown defence — twelve of seventeen conceded.

  • Silva's five straight decisions and three losses in her last four.

Final Assessment

In roughly 54 of 100 simulations, Karine "Killer" Silva imposes the grappling that built her career — most often by landing an early takedown and finding a submission against a woman who has never been submitted (22%), sometimes by banking takedowns and control into a decision when the choke does not come (20%), and occasionally by catching Fernandes on the way in, the way O'Neill did (12%).

In the other 46, Gabriella "Gabi" Fernandes keeps the fight standing — sprawling on the entries and out-landing Silva round after round until the cards are hers (22%); or landing the counter that turns a level change into a knockout (14%); or, in a smaller branch, finding her own choke in a scramble, as she did against Wang Cong (10%).

The data gives Silva the submissions, the takedown accuracy and the lower absorption; it gives Fernandes the volume, the takedown defence and a record that has never included a tap. We take Silva 54/46 at five out of ten — a narrow lean on the first round, in a fight that turns toward Fernandes the longer it stays standing.

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