Karine Silva vs Gabriella Fernandes – UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady Fight Analytics & Prediction

WOMEN'S FLYWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady

Karine Silva

“Killer”

19W7L

BJJ / Submission Grappler

…

Gabriella Fernandes

“Gabi”

11W4L

Southpaw Volume Striker

…

Nine career subs against a woman who has never been submitted

Women's FlyweightMeta APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, United StatesNovember 7, 2026Meta APEX — small, neutral, no-crowd room

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

This is a green-reliability, stylistically inverted flyweight projection — both women carry six-plus Octagon samples and usable UFCStats lines. Karine "Killer" Silva is the division's more natural finisher: nine career submissions, 1.6 Sub/15, 50% takedown accuracy and an 89% finish rate on nineteen wins — but her recent UFC ledger is decision-heavy and trending the wrong way, with losses to Maycee Barber and Jasmine Jasudavicius, a 26% takedown defence that bleeds control time, and four of seven losses by decision. Gabriella "Gabi" Fernandes is the volume striker from southpaw — 3.51 SLpM, 46% accuracy, 68% takedown defence — who also absorbs 5.31 significant strikes per minute and walked into a Round-1 TKO loss to Casey O'Neill in March 2026. We take Silva 54% / Fernandes 46% at conviction 5 out of 10.

Karine Silva

Attribute

Gabriella Fernandes

Age

5'5" (65")

Height

+1" Fernandes5'6" (66")

67"+1" Silva

Reach

66"

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

Brazil

Origin

Brazil

2021 (DWCS)

Octagon Debut

Jun 17, 2023 (Tereza Bledá)

Jiu-jitsu base — 9 career subs, 1.93 TD/15 at 50% accuracy

Fighting Style

Southpaw striker — 3.51 SLpM, 68% TDD, minimal wrestling offense

5-3 across 8 bouts

UFC Record

3-3 across 6 bouts

Silva is +1" in reach on a frame one inch shorter in height — a slight upper-limb edge for the orthodox grappler against a southpaw who wants boxing range. The more important asymmetry is role, not size: Silva wants entries and back takes; Fernandes wants to sprawl and out-volume at 3.51 significant strikes per minute. Both women are Brazilian; neither carries a home-cage advantage at the APEX.

Venue Factor
The Meta APEX is a small, neutral, no-crowd room that historically rewards visible control and clean exchanges over crowd-swing momentum. In flyweight fights that reach the scorecards here, judges tend to reward who landed the cleaner series and who spent time in dominant position — which cuts both ways: Silva's submission entries if they convert, Fernandes's volume if she keeps it vertical.

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Karine Silva

Pro Record

19-7-0

UFC Record

5-3 across 8 UFC bouts (incl. DWCS)

Streak

Lost her last — UD to Jasmine Jasudavicius, Apr 18, 2026

Finish Rate

89% (17 of 19 wins) — 8 KO/TKO, 9 submission

Avg Fight Time

Five straight UFC decisions — ~15:00 recent

Chin · Durable standing — 1 KO loss in 26 pro fightsSOS · Elite-adjacentBJJ-heavy finisher

Silva's last five UFC outings are 2-3, and the two most recent are unanimous decision losses to ranked-level opposition — Maycee Barber at UFC 323 and Jasmine Jasudavicius in April 2026. Sandwiched between them is a unanimous decision win over Dione Barbosa at UFC 319. She is not falling apart; she is running into better athletes and losing minutes. When the submission does not land, the 26% takedown defence and modest 2.24 SLpM leave her on the wrong side of cards.

Gabriella Fernandes

Pro Record

11-4-0

UFC Record

3-3 across 6 UFC bouts

Streak

Lost her last — R1 TKO to Casey O'Neill, Mar 28, 2026

Finish Rate

55% (6 of 11 wins) — 2 KO/TKO, 4 submission

Avg Fight Time

Mixed — R1 KO loss vs multiple 3-round wins

Chin · Recently cracked — R1 TKO to O'Neill; never submittedSOS · Ranked-adjacentSouthpaw volume striker

Fernandes is 3-2 in her last five with a clearer volatility signature: three wins in a row — Wang by technical RNC, Stoliarenko and Judice by decision — then stopped in Round 1 by Casey O'Neill at UFC Fight Night on March 28, 2026. She has never been submitted in eleven professional fights. She can outwork opponents standing and sprawl well enough to stay there, but she absorbs heavy fire at 5.31 SApM and just got stopped in the first round against a ranked flyweight.

Karine Silva

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Knockdown Exchange

KD dealt vs absorbed

Gabriella Fernandes

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Karine Silvasignature weapons

Submission Chain9 career submission wins, 1.6 Sub/15 — nearly half of all professional victories

×9

Takedown Entries1.93 TD/15 at 50% accuracy — real entries against a 68% sprawl

×0

Early Finishes17 of 19 career wins inside the distance — 8 KO, 9 sub

×15

Gabriella Fernandessignature weapons

Volume Boxing3.51 SLpM at 46% accuracy — the clearest standing weapon on the page

×0

Sprawl / TDD68% takedown defence — direct counter to Silva's entire game plan

×0

Technical RNCCong Wang, R2 3:49, Nov 23, 2024 — opportunistic ground threat, not systematic wrestling

×1

Karine Silva

Jasmine Jasudavicius

Decision — Unanimous

RR3

UFC Fight Night — Apr 18, 2026

Maycee Barber

Decision — Unanimous

RR3

UFC 323 — Dec 6, 2025

Dione Barbosa

Decision — Unanimous

RR3

UFC 319 — Aug 16, 2025

Viviane Araujo

Decision — Unanimous

RR3

UFC 309 — Nov 16, 2024

Ariane Lipski

Decision — Unanimous

RR3

UFC Fight Night — Apr 27, 2024

Pattern

Five straight UFC fights went the distance. Silva is 2-3 in that stretch, with both wins and three of four losses coming by unanimous decision. The grappling threat has not converted into finishes against Barber, Jasudavicius or Araujo — elite or near-elite athletes who denied her the back. Form for this matchup: proven against mid-tier, outworked by top-tier, still dangerous if the fight hits the floor early.

Gabriella Fernandes

Casey O'Neill

KO/TKO — Punches

RR1 (3:11)

UFC Fight Night — Mar 28, 2026

Julija Stoliarenko

Decision — Unanimous

RR3

UFC Fight Night — Aug 9, 2025

Cong Wang

Submission — Technical RNC

RR2 (3:49)

UFC Fight Night — Nov 23, 2024

Carli Judice

Decision — Split

RR3

UFC Fight Night — Jun 15, 2024

Tereza Bledá

Decision — Unanimous

RR3

UFC Fight Night — Jun 17, 2023

Pattern

3-2 in five, with the most recent fight the most violent — O'Neill dropped her in the first. Before that, a three-fight win streak that mixed a Round-2 choke with two decision wins. She has never been submitted, but she can be stopped standing if the volume and power find the chin.

Karine Silva

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Gabriella Fernandes

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Critical Insight
Silva's career is 47% submissions and 89% finish rate; Fernandes has zero submission losses but a 45% decision-win identity. Silva's last five UFC bouts are all decisions — zero finishes in either direction. Fernandes's last five include a Round-1 knockout loss and a Round-2 submission win. Round bars for Silva's early finishes are reconstructed from method totals; recent UFC tape is entirely decision-stamped.

Common Opponents

Opponent	Karine	Gabriella
Dione Barbosa	W· UD3 (Aug 16, 2025)	—(grappling benchmark)
Silva outpointed Barbosa over fifteen minutes — a relevant flyweight grappler Fernandes's side respects as proof Silva can bank control when the submission does not land

0.0

Gabriella

Half a point apart — inside the noise. The 54/46 lean is a stylistic override on submission volume versus sprawl, not a composite blowout.

Metric	Karine	Gabriella
Prior UFC Bouts	8 (5-3)	6 (3-3)
Days Since Last Fight	~203 (Apr 18, 2026)	~224 (Mar 28, 2026)
Finish Rate	89% (17 of 19)	55% (6 of 11)
Pace Tier	Low volume — 2.24 SLpM	High volume — 3.51 SLpM
Recent Form	2-3 last five (all decisions)	3-2 last five (R1 KO loss)

Archetype Base Rate

BJJ-Heavy Finisher 54%46% Southpaw Volume Striker

No archetype base-rate row — qualitative stylistic override · No historical archetype win-rate is applied for this exact women's flyweight pairing. The 54-46 lean is a qualitative call on Silva's 1.6 Sub/15 and 50% takedown accuracy versus Fernandes's 68% TDD and fresh R1 TKO loss, tempered by Silva's decision losses to Barber and Jasudavicius.

Karine SilvaGabriella Fernandes

Women's Flyweight

· 40 fighters

Stat	Karine	Karine rank	Div avg	Gabriella rank	Gabriella
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	2.24	—	~3.0–3.5	—	3.51
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	38%	—	~44–48%	—	46%
Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit.	52%	—	~50–54%	—	53%
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	2.74	—	~3.2–3.8	—	5.31
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	1.93	—	~1.0–1.4	—	0.42
TD Acc	50%	—	~35–42%	—	18%
TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed.	26%	—	~55–65%	—	68%
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	1.6	—	~0.3–0.5	—	0.2
Prior UFC Bouts	8	—	—	—	6

Statistical Verdict
Fernandes wins the standing trade on paper; Silva wins every grappling offensive cell. The decisive cells are Sub/15 1.6 vs TDDef 68% and SApM 5.31 vs StrDef 52%. Silva's 26% takedown defence is the hidden underdog path if Fernandes ever reverses position.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

⚠ R1, R2, R3: single-fight sample for Karine Silva

⚠ R1, R2, R3: single-fight sample for Gabriella Fernandes

Control Time per Round (sec)

Karine Silva

No published round-split table attached to this build.
Five consecutive UFC outcomes went the distance — Jasudavicius, Barber, Barbosa, Araujo, Lipski.
Finishing equity is back-loaded in career history but absent in recent Octagon tape.

Gabriella Fernandes

No published round-split table attached to this build.
O'Neill R1 TKO 3:11 (Mar 2026); Wang R2 RNC 3:49 (Nov 2024).
Three other last-five bouts went the full three rounds by decision.

Critical Insight
Round 1 is the highest-variance round — O'Neill proved Fernandes can be stopped early; Silva's career finishes cluster before the scorecards. If this is still competitive at minute eight, Fernandes's volume and 68% sprawl get cheaper, and Silva's decision-loss trend against elite athletes becomes the live nightmare.

Strike Targeting (career avg)

No UFC strike-target data for either fighter — nothing is estimated.

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage. Fighters without UFC samples are omitted rather than shown as 0%.

Range Profile — where the minutes go

Karine · N/AGabriella · N/A

No UFC range-share data for either fighter — nothing is estimated.

Share of significant-strike volume by range from UFC career data. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much

Open SpaceGabriella owns it

3.51 SLpM and southpaw angles vs 2.24 volume — until Silva closes distance

Pocket / ExchangesGabriella owns it

Fernandes lands more; Silva absorbs less at 2.74 SApM — a split phase

Clinch / EntriesKarine owns it

1.93 TD/15 at 50% accuracy — Silva's clearest path to change the fight

GroundKarine owns it

1.6 Sub/15 vs 68% TDD — favoured if she gets there, not guaranteed

Path to Victory

Karine Silva

Get the fight to the mat early, ride 50% takedown accuracy into a 1.6 Sub/15 sequence before Fernandes's sprawl and southpaw boxing establish rhythm.

Why they win

Submission volume

9 career subs, 1.6 Sub/15, 47% of wins by submission — the clearest finishing threat in the pairing.

Takedown accuracy

1.93 TD/15 at 50% — real entries against a striker, not decorative wrestling.

Lower absorption

2.74 SApM vs 5.31 — she eats less clean contact in aggregate.

Finish rate

89% of wins inside the distance vs Fernandes at 55%.

Reach edge

+1" reach on the orthodox frame.

Beat Dione Barbosa

UD win over a grappling-adjacent flyweight — relevant benchmark for this matchup.

The gameplan

1
Shoot early, shoot often
The first two rounds are where her career finishes live; recent UFC tape says she must force the issue before another scorecard.
2
Chain wrestle off the jab
Do not enter naked — Fernandes hits at 46% accuracy.
3
Prioritize back takes
Fernandes has four submission wins including a Wang RNC — she is not a grappling zero, but Silva's edge is top control.
4
Do not accept bottom position
26% TDD means reversals are catastrophic; stand up fast if swept.
5
Contingency — if Round 2 ends standing
Increase urgency in Round 3; decision losses to Barber and Jasudavicius show what happens when she waits.

Path to Victory

Gabriella Fernandes

Keep it standing, out-volume at 3.51 SLpM, make Silva pay for 26% takedown defence on the way up, and bank a decision if the submission never arrives.

Why they win

Takedown defence 68%

The direct counter to Silva's entire game plan.

Striking volume and accuracy

3.51 SLpM at 46% vs 2.24 at 38%.

Never submitted

Zero submission losses in eleven professional fights.

Southpaw angles

Open-stance boxing against an orthodox grappler.

Decision comfort

Five career decision wins — built to bank minutes if the sprawl holds.

Silva's elite decision losses

Barber, Jasudavicius, Araujo — proof Silva can be outworked for fifteen minutes.

The gameplan

1
Sprawl and jab from southpaw
Make Silva's entries expensive.
2
Volume is the weapon
3.51 SLpM, body and head, force Silva to think about strikes not grips.
3
Do not extended grapple
0.42 TD/15 — her ground offense is opportunistic, not systematic.
4
Protect the chin early
O'Neill finished her at 3:11 of Round 1; Silva has 8 career KO wins.
5
Contingency — if taken down
Wall-walk and return to feet immediately; bank Round 3 on activity if needed.

Danger Zone

How Karine Silva loses

Fernandes sprawls on three entries, wins the boxing exchanges, and takes a 29-28 in a silent APEX — the Jasudavicius script without the ranked name.
She gets taken down herself off a failed shot at 26% TDD, spends Round 2 on her back, and loses another decision.
The submission hunt stalls, volume deficit compounds, and four-of-seven career losses by decision becomes five.

Danger Zone

How Gabriella Fernandes loses

Silva's first takedown lands at 50% accuracy, back exposure follows, and a 1.6 Sub/15 threat converts against a zero-submission-loss record that has never faced nine career subs' worth of BJJ.
She trades in the pocket early, 5.31 SApM meets Silva's counters, and the O'Neill knockout repeats.
Southpaw rhythm never establishes because she is fighting off her back from minute two onward.

The spine of 54%

Submission Volume Versus Zero Submission Losses

Silva's entire favouritism rests on 1.6 Sub/15 meeting a woman who has never been submitted. That is either the exact vulnerability or the exact reason the choke never lands. We lean slightly toward the former because Barber and Jasudavicius beat Silva on the cards, not by denying submissions in scramble — the fight never got there.

1.6

Silva Sub/15

Fernandes's hidden tax

5.31 SApM Is Not a Typo

Fernandes lands at a good clip but absorbs 5.31 significant strikes per minute — nearly double Silva's 2.74. In a fight where Silva's volume is low, Fernandes can still lose the damage exchange while winning the strike count. The O'Neill loss is the extreme case.

5.31

Fernandes SApM

Five straight for Silva

Decision Identity Versus Finish Identity

Silva has two career decision wins and four career decision losses — she is not built for slow fights, yet five straight UFC bouts went the distance. Fernandes has five decision wins and is comfortable banking minutes. If the sprawl holds, the decision path favours Fernandes even when Silva is the nominal favourite.

The underdog reversal path

26% TDD — Silva's Other Hole

Silva's 26% takedown defence is the hidden Fernandes path. If she gets returned to her back off a failed shot, the same control-loss pattern that produced decision defeats to Barber and Jasudavicius repeats against a woman who can out-strike her for fifteen minutes.

26%

Silva TDDef

No home cage

Brazilian Mirror at the APEX

Both women fight out of Brazil with no cage advantage. The APEX removes crowd equity entirely — control and clean landing decide close rounds, which slightly helps Silva if she converts takedowns into top time.

The Five-Round Clock

Karine Silva danger windowGabriella Fernandes danger windowNeutral / contested

R1 · 0:00–5:00Silva's highest-EV window

Career finishes cluster early; O'Neill proved Fernandes can be stopped in the same round. Silva's 12% KO bucket and 22% submission bucket both peak here. Highest-variance round in the fight.

Critical Insight
Silva's equity peaks in the opening ten minutes when takedown entries and submission threats are highest. Fernandes's accrues if she is still standing in Round 3 with a volume lead — the Jasudavicius and Barber scripts, minus the ranked names.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things

Silva 54% / Fernandes 46% at conviction 5/10. Composites finish 52 to 51.5 — the lean is stylistic, not composite-driven.

Silva's 1.6 Sub/15 and 50% takedown accuracy versus Fernandes's 68% TDD and zero submission losses. Fernandes's 3.51 SLpM and fresh O'Neill R1 TKO loss keep her live at 46%.

Silva's last five UFC fights all went the distance — if the sprawl holds, Fernandes by decision is a 22% modal counter-path equal to Silva by submission.

100 Simulated Fights

Silva Submission — 22%Silva Decision — 20%Silva KO/TKO — 12%Fernandes Decision — 22%Fernandes KO/TKO — 14%Fernandes Submission — 10%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. Karine Silva gold · Gabriella Fernandes orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Submission volume vs sprawl

1.6 Sub/15 and 9 career submissions against 68% TDD and zero submission losses — the largest single input in the model and the reason Silva's submission bucket is 22%.

Striking pace vs absorption

3.51 SLpM vs 5.31 SApM for Fernandes; 2.24 SLpM vs 2.74 SApM for Silva. Volume favours Fernandes; damage economy favours Silva.

Silva's takedown accuracy

50% at 1.93 per fifteen — entries are real. The question is whether 68% TDD holds over three rounds.

Silva's 26% TDD

Reversal path for Fernandes if Silva shoots and gets caught — the hidden underdog branch.

Recent form divergence

Silva 2-3 last five, all decisions; Fernandes R1 KO loss off a three-fight win streak. Neither trend is cleanly favourable.

APEX judging

Neutral room — control time versus visible volume decides close rounds without crowd equity.

Fight Scripts

of simulations

The Back Take

Silva's first takedown lands, back exposure follows, and 1.6 Sub/15 converts — the largest single bucket and the spine of the 54% lean.

Scripted outcomes for Karine Silva vs Gabriella Fernandes — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Karine Silva win probability

12%

20%

22%

KO/TKODECSUB

Real but tertiary — 8 career KO wins, and Fernandes was just stopped by O'Neill in Round 1. Not the hunted path.
The control-time path when takedowns land but the choke does not — Barbosa and Lipski wins. Larger than it looks given five straight UFC decisions.
The largest single bucket and the spine of the lean — 1.6 Sub/15 into 68% TDD and a zero-submission-loss record that has not faced this level of BJJ offense.

Gabriella Fernandes win probability

14%

22%

10%

KO/TKODECSUB

Priced off O'Neill R1 and 5.31 SApM meeting Silva's counters — live at 14%, not the base case.
Equal to Silva's submission bucket at 22% — sprawl, volume and Silva's decision-loss trend against elite opposition.
The Wang RNC overlap — opportunistic, not systematic. Ten points, and the reason ground is not scored as a Silva monopoly.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round

Even

Gabriella

29-28 Fernandes

Volume takes R2 and R3 after a competitive first

The modal card if Silva's takedowns fail — 22% of the simulation

29-28 Silva

Top control in one round plus a competitive third

The control path when takedowns land but the choke does not — 20% decision bucket

30-27 Fernandes

Sprawl holds for fifteen minutes

Requires Silva to fail on every entry and Fernandes to maintain 3.51 pace

Moneyline

Karine Silva

Not posted

Gabriella Fernandes

Not posted

No sportsbook has published a line on this bout. Fair prices from the 54/46 split: Karine Silva −117, Gabriella Fernandes +117. Live odds appear in the hero above once the books post the November 7 APEX card.

Props: model vs market

Prop	Odds	Implied %	Model %	Fair	Edge	Verdict

Best Value
Silva by submission at 22% (fair +355) is the structural lean — the largest single bucket. Fernandes by decision at 22% (fair +355) is the equal counter when the sprawl holds and Silva's five-fight decision streak continues. Fight does NOT go the distance at 58% (fair −138) reflects combined finish equity without being as confident as a typical Silva career fight. Avoid fading Fernandes by KO/TKO entirely — O'Neill finished her at 3:11 and the branch is 14%.

Conviction

5/10

A defensible narrow lean on submission volume and takedown accuracy, capped because both rate lines are green-reliability, composites finish 52 to 51.5, Fernandes has never been submitted, and Silva has lost three of her last four UFC fights on the cards. Lean: Karine Silva.

What backs the lean

1.6 Sub/15 and 9 career submissions — the clearest finishing threat in the pairing.
50% takedown accuracy at 1.93 TD/15 — entries are real.
89% finish rate vs 55%.
2.74 SApM vs 5.31 — absorbs less damage.
+1" reach.
Beat Dione Barbosa — relevant grappling benchmark.

What limits it

68% takedown defence — direct counter to Silva's game.
Never submitted in eleven professional fights.
3.51 SLpM at 46% accuracy — can outwork Silva standing.
Fresh R1 TKO loss to O'Neill caps Fernandes upside but proves Silva's KO path is live.
Silva 26% TDD — reversal and control-loss path.
Decision losses to Barber, Jasudavicius, Araujo.
Composites 52 to 51.5 — essentially level.

Final Assessment

In roughly 54 of 100 simulations, Karine "Killer" Silva imposes the grappling identity that built her career — most often by converting 50% takedown accuracy into a submission that Fernandes's zero-loss record has never had to answer at this level (22%), sometimes by banking top control into a decision when the choke does not land (20%), and occasionally by finding the chin early the way O'Neill did from the other corner (12% KO/TKO). Every one of those paths is cleaner if the first takedown lands in the opening rounds.

In the other 46, Gabriella "Gabi" Fernandes keeps the fight where she wants it — sprawling on entries, out-volumeing at 3.51 significant strikes per minute, and taking a decision when Silva's submission hunt stalls (22%); or punishing Silva's 26% takedown defence on the feet with southpaw boxing (14% KO/TKO); and in a smaller branch, reversing into her own opportunistic choke the way she finished Cong Wang (10% submission).

The data gives Silva the submissions, the takedown accuracy and the lower absorption rate; it gives Fernandes the sprawl, the volume, the decision comfort and a fresh reminder that flyweight finishes happen in both directions. We take Silva 54/46 at five out of ten — a narrow grappler's lean in a fight that could easily become a third consecutive decision on Silva's ledger if the mat never opens.

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