A debut knockout loss against a 37-year-old southpaw who has already stopped someone in the UFC
Fight overview
Schmid’s only documented UFC fight ended at 2:47 of round one. Nakamura’s ESPN log now includes a UFC knockout of Sebastian Szalay. Neither fact is a career rate, so no win probability is assigned.
Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.
ESPN profiles 5346907 and 5327937, plus the May 2, 2026 UFC.com line already stored in analysis/FightNight-BonfimBrady/schmid-vs-nakamura.md. Booking records remain 4-3 and 8-1.
Model methodologyOne UFC loss, one UFC win, no percentage
The earlier file treated Nakamura as a man with no UFC fight and listed him at 27. ESPN fighter 5327937 lists a birthdate of December 2, 1988, a 70-inch reach, southpaw, and a win over Sebastian Szalay by knockout at 3:48 of round three at UFC 325 on January 31, 2026. Schmid (ESPN 5346907) is 5'11", born December 28, 2000, City Kickboxing. His documented UFC night remains the first-round TKO loss to Marwan Rahiki on May 2, 2026: 3.23 strikes landed per minute, 7.90 absorbed, 45% striking defence, no takedowns, nine of 30 significant strikes. That is one night. It is not a three-round profile, and it is not a percentage against Nakamura.
Schmid is an inch taller with an inch of reach and twelve years younger. Nakamura is the southpaw. Age 37 replaces the 27 that was on the short page.
Venue FactorThree rounds at 145 in the 25-foot APEX cage. Schmid trains at City Kickboxing. Nakamura’s listed team is Ex-Fight.
ESPN logs, not a blended rate
The debut ended before a second round existed. Treating 7.90 absorbed as a permanent tax, or treating the loss as the whole fighter, both over-read one night. ESPN also lists regional results (Mesa, Gerbes, Srisawat, Gillies, Edge) that are not a UFC aggregate.
He is not an unmeasured debutant anymore. He also does not have a career SLpM on this page. One fight’s strike totals are not converted into a rate.
Opponent context: ufc
Opponent context: prospect
Opponent context: prospect
Opponent context: prospect
Opponent context: prospect
The UFC result is a first-round knockout loss. The ESPN regional rows around it are mostly short wins, plus a 2024 knockout loss to Gillies.
Opponent context: ufc
Opponent context: prospect
Opponent context: prospect
Opponent context: prospect
Opponent context: prospect
Five straight wins on the ESPN extract, one of them a UFC third-round knockout. The career loss is a submission, not in this five.
Critical InsightNakamura’s pie is the ESPN career split of eight wins: 7 knockouts and the Li decision, so about 88 and 12. Schmid’s four wins are not split here. Round bars stay at zero because the logs were not fully timed into a finish chart.
Without a reliable shared-opponent table, compare who each fighter has been tested against using SOS tier, UFC sample size, and recent elite-tier form — not raw records alone.
| Factor | Ollie | Keiichiro |
|---|---|---|
| Strength of schedule (SOS tier) | One UFC fight — Nine of 30 significant strikes landed. Absorption 7.90 per minute for those 2:47. | One UFC win plus Road to UFC — Szalay was a third-round knockout. Road to UFC wins over Kaiwen Li (decision) and Eoh Jin Park (knee) are on the same log. |
| UFC sample | 1 documented UFC fight, a loss | ESPN: win over Sebastian Szalay, UFC 325, January 31, 2026 |
| Recent ranked / elite touches (last 5) | 0 elite · 0 veteran tier | 0 elite · 0 veteran tier |
| Form-window tier points tied in the last-five sample — compare SOS notes and methods, not volume alone. | ||
| Last three opponents | Marwan Rahiki, J. Mesa, F. Gerbes | Sebastian Szalay, Kaiwen Li, Eoh Jin Park |
Career rates withheld
Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and sample flags before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.
Withheld
Schmid’s 3.23 / 7.90 line is one night. Nakamura has no career rate here.
Withheld
Schmid attempted no takedowns in the UFC fight. Nakamura’s attempt rate was not published.
Withheld
A gauge needs two career rows.
Withheld
Schmid has not had a second UFC round. Nakamura’s Szalay win went to round three. That is not a cardio score.
Withheld
Zero means unused, not a skill score.
| Metric | Ollie | Keiichiro |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 25 | 37 |
| Reach | 71" | 70" |
| UFC result | L Rahiki, R1 | W Szalay, R3 |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
No model sample · winPctA is 0 because no probability was assigned. The letter A is not a lean.
| Stat | Ollie | Ollie rank | Div avg | Keiichiro rank | Keiichiro |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker. | 3.23 on one night | — | — | — | Not a career rate |
| SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better. | 7.90 on one night | — | — | — | Not a career rate |
| Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit. | 45% on one night | — | — | — | Not available |
| Age | 25 | — | — | — | 37 |
Statistical VerdictThe only numeric striking comparison is Schmid’s debut night. It does not sit next to a Nakamura career line.
Round-by-round significant-strike figures are unavailable for this comparison. Missing observations are not zero strikes.
Round-by-round control-time figures are unavailable for this comparison. Missing observations are not zero seconds of control.
Critical InsightEmpty rows are missing round shares, not a measured zero.
Strike-target figures are unavailable for this comparison.
Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage. Unavailable strike-target figures are omitted rather than shown as 0%.
The distribution of strikes by range is unavailable for this comparison.
Approximate share of significant strikes by range in available rounds, weighted by strike volume. Incomplete splits are excluded. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.
What the logs support
No paired career striking line.
Schmid was hit at 7.90 per minute for 2:47. That is one night.
No takedown rates for Nakamura. Schmid attempted none in the UFC fight.
Nakamura’s career loss is a submission. It is not placed in a round here.
Show that a second UFC round exists. The debut absorption is the fact he has to change.
25 against 37. 5'11" and 71 inches against 5'10" and 70.
The gym is real. It is not a rate.
The Rahiki clock stopped at 2:47. Anything after that is new information.
It is one night. It is also the night that has to be answered.
Show that the Szalay finish and the southpaw entries travel. Age 37 is the cost, not a style.
Sebastian Szalay, round three, 3:48, UFC 325.
7 of 8 wins by knockout on the ESPN split. The Li win was a decision.
Into an orthodox fighter whose only UFC night ended in round one.
The stance is the published difference. The Park finish was a knee.
Szalay and Li both did. Schmid’s UFC fight did not.
The 7.90 absorption repeats and the debut finish window is still open.
Gillies already stopped him in round three in 2024. The chin question is not only Rahiki.
37 years old against a 25-year-old who is an inch longer.
One UFC win is not a divisional rate. Szalay’s strike totals are not converted into SLpM here.
ESPN’s birthdate is December 2, 1988. Nakamura is 37 on this date. The short file said 27.
The earlier analysis said there was no UFCStats row. The ESPN log now has the Szalay win. A career rate is still not printed.
3.23 landed, 7.90 absorbed, 45% defence, no takedowns. That is the whole Octagon line.
Rahiki ended it at 2:47.
Critical InsightThree rounds. Only one man has a UFC round three on this card.
Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.
No calibrated probability
No win probability and no fair price.
Nakamura is 37, southpaw, 70-inch reach, with a UFC win over Sebastian Szalay. The short page had him at 27 with no UFC fight.
Schmid’s UFC line is still the Rahiki night: 3.23 landed, 7.90 absorbed, over at 2:47.
Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.
Each square = 1 simulated fight. Ollie Schmid gold · Keiichiro Nakamura orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.
Rahiki’s 2:47 against Szalay’s round-three knockout. Not a percentage.
25 against 37.
Nakamura’s UFC strike totals are not turned into SLpM.
A script percentage would be a model. This page does not have one.
Scripted outcomes for Ollie Schmid vs Keiichiro Nakamura — how each version of this fight unfolds.
Not assigned.
Not assigned.
Not assigned.
7 career knockout wins are not a share of this fight.
The Li decision is not a model bucket.
0 career submission wins on the ESPN split.
EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.
Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.
Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.
Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.
Enter a probability above 0 and below 100, and a target EV from 0 to 100.
Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.
Enter a probability above 0 and below 100, and a target EV from 0 to 100.
No prop prices recorded in this analysis.
These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.
None.
Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
Conviction is 0. The page corrects the bio and the form. It does not pick a winner. Lean: No side.
Nothing is listed as a lean.
Schmid’s UFC sample is 2:47.
Nakamura has one UFC win and no career rate here.
Age 37 is new information, not a percentage.
Schmid has to show a second UFC round. The debut numbers are ugly and they are one night.
Nakamura is a 37-year-old southpaw who has already knocked someone out in the UFC. That replaces the 'no Octagon fight, age 27' line. It still does not produce a win percentage.
