Priscila Cachoeira vs Nina Milošević – UFC Fight Night Analysis

PRELIM · WOMEN'S BANTAMWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady

Priscila Cachoeira

“Zombie Girl”

13W9L

13-9, #19

Nina Milošević

“Queen Beast”

9W1L

9-1, #23

Two ranked bantamweights, and neither current rate line is on this page

Women's BantamweightMeta APEX, Las VegasNovember 7, 202625-foot Octagon

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Cachoeira is 13-9 and #19. A February page had her at 13-7 absorbing 7.23 significant strikes per minute. That line is two losses behind and is not current. Milošević is 9-1 and #23. Her pre-debut rates were estimates and are not used. No win probability is assigned.

Paths that change the fight

Priscila CachoeiraKeep the fight standing only if the February absorption is no longer the fight. This page cannot say that it isn’t.
Nina MiloševićThe debut result would say whether the pressure label survived a UFC night. That result is not here.

What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 0/10

Cachoeira’s line is two losses old.
Milošević’s debut result is missing.

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Priscila Cachoeira

Insufficient price data

Model win probability: 0%
Fair decimal odds: —

Reference quote—

Nina Milošević

Insufficient price data

Model win probability: 0%
Fair decimal odds: —

Reference quote—

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Sources and data limitations

analysis/FightNight-BonfimBrady/cachoeira-vs-milosevic.md, ESPN 4277049, the August 1 Milošević file.

Model methodology

Read the evidence Inspect prices and assumptions

The Frame

#19 against #23, without a current rate line

The Analyst's Take

The headshot for Cachoeira is the ESPN id already used on her older fight pages, 4277049. The February 7, 2026 page in this project had her at 13-7, age 37, 5'7", 65-inch reach, 4.11 strikes landed and 7.23 absorbed. The booking is now 13-9. The two losses are not named here, so the absorption figure is not treated as Saturday’s rate. Milošević’s headshot is ESPN 5361791. That August file had her at 8-1, born August 8, 1996, and marked height, reach, and striking rates as estimates. The booking is now 9-1 and #23. The Cowan debut result was not re-pulled, so those estimates stay out.

Priscila Cachoeira

Attribute

Nina Milošević

13-9-0

Record

9-1-0

#19

Rank

#23

37 on the February page

Age

Milošević born August 8, 199629

5'7"

Height

Not used

65"

Reach

Not used

Age is the measurement that survives. Eight years, if Cachoeira is still 37 in November. Reach is not a comparison.

Venue Factor
Three rounds at 135 in the 25-foot APEX cage. A small cage favors pressure. Whether Milošević still pressures after her debut is the missing result.

The Fighters

What is current, and what is two results late

Priscila Cachoeira

Pro Record

13-9-0

UFC Record

A February rate line exists. The stored count of 24 UFC bouts was not re-counted.

Streak

Two losses since the 13-7 page. Order unknown.

Finish Rate

Not itemized on the February fields used here

Avg Fight Time

Not current

Chin · The February line absorbed 7.23 per minute. That is not a chin grade and it is not current.SOS · #19Veteran striker

4.11 landed against 7.23 absorbed was the February story: she throws, and she was being hit more. Two losses later, that sentence is a memory of a line, not a pick.

Nina Milošević

Pro Record

9-1-0 on the booking

UFC Record

Debut was scheduled August 1, 2026 against Hailey Cowan. The result is not re-pulled. The booking’s 9-1 would fit a win. It does not prove one.

Streak

Was on an eight-fight win streak inside an 8-1 record entering that debut

Finish Rate

A pre-debut estimate of 5 finishes in 8 wins is not carried forward

Avg Fight Time

No verified UFC aggregate

Chin · Unproven on a verified UFC lineSOS · #23Ranked after a debut window

29 years old, Queen Beast, Serbian. Height and the 4.70 strike rate on the debut page were estimates. They are not reprinted as UFC stats.

Priscila Cachoeira

— dealt · — absorbed

Knockdown Exchange

KD dealt vs absorbed. A dash means that figure was not published.

Nina Milošević

— dealt · — absorbed

Priscila Cachoeirasignature weapons

February absorption7.23 significant strikes absorbed per minute, at 13-7. Two losses later it is a warning, not a current rate.

×0

Standing fighter0.15 takedowns per 15 and 0.00 submission attempts on that same stale line. 67% takedown defence was the best number on it.

×0

Nina Miloševićsignature weapons

The missing debutHailey Cowan, August 1, 2026. Result not re-pulled.

×0

Age29 against a February age of 37.

×0

Priscila Cachoeira

Pattern

No last five. The February page stored 13-7. The booking stores 13-9. Names for those two results are required before anyone writes how she lost.

Nina Milošević

Pattern

The Cowan bout is the missing center. Method, round, and time are not in this file.

Priscila Cachoeira

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Nina Milošević

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Critical Insight
Both pies are blank. A pre-debut finish estimate for Milošević is not a 9-1 method table. Cachoeira’s February page did not include a KO/submission/decision split in the fields used.

Opposition strength (no shared opponents)

Without a reliable shared-opponent table, compare who each fighter has been tested against using SOS tier, UFC sample size, and recent elite-tier form — not raw records alone.

Factor	Priscila	Nina
Strength of schedule (SOS tier)	#19 — Two added losses are the form. Their opponents are not in this file.	#23 — Rank in the twenties after a debut window usually means she won. Usually is not a result.
UFC sample	A February rate line exists. The stored count of 24 UFC bouts was not re-counted.	Debut was scheduled August 1, 2026 against Hailey Cowan. The result is not re-pulled. The booking’s 9-1 would fit a win. It does not prove one.
Recent ranked / elite touches (last 5)	0 elite · 0 veteran tier	0 elite · 0 veteran tier
Form-window tier points tied in the last-five sample — compare SOS notes and methods, not volume alone.
Last three opponents	—	—

Priscilasmall sample

Ninasmall sample

February and pre-debut numbers are not plotted.

Metric	Priscila	Nina
Record	13-9	9-1
Rank	#19	#23
Age	37	29
Reach	65"	Not usedsmall sample

Archetype Base Rate

Veteran 0%100% New rank

No model sample · winPctA is 0 because no probability was assigned. Four ranking spots are not a lean.

Priscila CachoeiraNina Milošević

Women's Bantamweight

Stat	Priscila	Priscila rank	Div avg	Nina rank	Nina
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	Stale 7.23, not used	—	—	—	Estimate, not used
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	Stale 4.11, not used	—	—	—	Estimate, not used
Rank	#19	—	—	—	#23

Statistical Verdict
Rank is the only live comparison the booking gave.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

Round-by-round significant-strike figures are unavailable for this comparison. Missing observations are not zero strikes.

Control Time per Round (sec)

Round-by-round control-time figures are unavailable for this comparison. Missing observations are not zero seconds of control.

Priscila Cachoeira

The two losses since February are unnamed. No round shares.

Nina Milošević

The Cowan result is not in this file.

Critical Insight
Empty on purpose.

Strike targeting (available rounds)

Strike-target figures are unavailable for this comparison.

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage. Unavailable strike-target figures are omitted rather than shown as 0%.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

Priscila · N/ANina · N/A

The distribution of strikes by range is unavailable for this comparison.

Approximate share of significant strikes by range in available rounds, weighted by strike volume. Incomplete splits are excluded. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.

The Story of the Fight

Experience, age, and the missing debut

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much

Open spaceEven

7.23 absorbed is February, not current.

PocketEven

43% striking defence was on the same stale line.

ClinchEven

0.15 takedowns. Not a wrestling plan.

GroundEven

0.00 submission attempts on that line.

Path to Victory

Priscila Cachoeira

Keep the fight standing only if the February absorption is no longer the fight. This page cannot say that it isn’t.

Why they win

UFC miles

A February line exists. Milošević’s does not, except as an estimate this project already rejected.

Rank

#19 against #23. Four spots. Not a rate.

The gameplan

1
Do not scout the estimate
Milošević’s 4.70 and 2.00 takedowns were round numbers in a file that said they were estimates.
2
The absorption is the assignment
If she is still being hit at anything like 7.23, volume against her is the fight.

Path to Victory

Nina Milošević

The debut result would say whether the pressure label survived a UFC night. That result is not here.

Why they win

Age

29 against 37.

The absorption she does not have to match yet

7.23 was Cachoeira’s February number. It is the problem in the matchup if it is still true.

The gameplan

1
No plan from an estimate
Pressure was a scouting label. The Cowan tape is the plan, and it is not transcribed here.

Danger Zone

How Priscila Cachoeira loses

The two losses since February were the same high-absorption fight, repeated.
A pressure debutant in a 25-foot cage meets a striker who does not wrestle her way out.

Danger Zone

How Nina Milošević loses

The Cowan debut did not look like the estimate, and the #23 rank is a labeling lag.
Cachoeira’s 67% takedown defence, if it still holds, keeps the fight in the phase Milošević was only estimated to want.

13-7 to 13-9

Two losses sit between the line and the fight

They are not named. 'Two losses' is not 'two in a row' unless they were the last two. The arithmetic allows other sequences.

Cowan

9-1 is not a verified debut win

8-1 entering August 1, 9-1 on the booking. That would fit a win. The method is not in this file.

ESPN headshots

Photos

Cachoeira uses ESPN 4277049. Milošević uses ESPN 5361791.

The Five-Round Clock

Priscila Cachoeira danger windowNina Milošević danger windowNeutral / contested

R1Not assigned

No finish distribution.

Critical Insight
The clock is empty because the results that would fill it were not pulled.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

The Verdict

No calibrated probability

If you only read 3 things

No win probability.

Cachoeira’s photo is ESPN 4277049. Her February absorption is labeled stale.

Milošević’s headshot is ESPN 5361791. Her estimated rates are not used.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Not simulated — 0%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. Priscila Cachoeira gold · Nina Milošević orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Rank gap

#19 versus #23.

Stale absorption

7.23 is two losses old.

Missing debut result

Cowan is the hole in Milošević’s UFC story.

Fight Scripts

of simulations

Not scripted

A script percentage would be a model.

Scripted outcomes for Priscila Cachoeira vs Nina Milošević — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Priscila Cachoeira win probability

KO/TKODECSUB

Not assigned.
Not assigned.
Not assigned.

Nina Milošević win probability

KO/TKODECSUB

Not assigned.
Not assigned.
Not assigned.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round

Even

Not projected

No judges' card

Forecast withheld

Model and price

Priscila Cachoeira

Insufficient price data

Model win probability: 0%
Fair decimal odds: —

Reference quote—

Estimated EV: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —

Nina Milošević

Insufficient price data

Model win probability: 0%
Fair decimal odds: —

Reference quote—

Estimated EV: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Priscila Cachoeira

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Enter a probability above 0 and below 100, and a target EV from 0 to 100.

What price would change the calculation? · Nina Milošević

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Enter a probability above 0 and below 100, and a target EV from 0 to 100.

Full prop table (0)Expand for odds, model %, implied % and analyst verdict per prop

No prop prices recorded in this analysis.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

None.

Conviction

0/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Conviction is 0. The page separates current facts from stale rates. It does not pick a winner. Lean: No side.

What backs the lean

Nothing is listed as a lean.

What limits it

Cachoeira’s line is two losses old.
Milošević’s debut result is missing.
Her reach was an estimate.

Final Assessment

Cachoeira is the longer UFC fighter, and the last trusted line said she was being hit far more than she hit. Two unnamed losses sit on top of that.

Milošević is younger and newly ranked. Until the Cowan result is pasted, she is not a rate, and this is not a pick.

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