Mitch Raposo vs Marcos Degli: analysis & prediction

PRELIMS · FLYWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady
Mitch Raposo — Flyweight fighter

Mitch Raposo

11W3L
Freestyle
…
VS
Marcos Degli — Flyweight fighter

Marcos Degli

15W3L
…

Raposo's structured minutes against Degli's connected finishing threats

FlyweightMeta APEX2026-11-07

The fight in 30 seconds

Mitch Raposo 50% / Marcos Degli 50%. No overall preference; neither side has a central estimated advantage. Raposo and Degli are held at 50/50 because the evidence supports different routes without a convincing common baseline. Raposo has more established UFC experience and the larger decision allocation; Degli has the greater submission allocation from his documented finishing threat. Regional finishing success is not treated as a calibrated UFC rate.

Subjective editorial probabilities, not calibrated model outputs.

Mitch Raposo

Insufficient price data
Editorial win estimate
50%
Fair odds
+100
Reference quote
—
Fair decimal odds
2.00

Marcos Degli

Insufficient price data
Editorial win estimate
50%
Fair odds
+100
Reference quote
—
Fair decimal odds
2.00
Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Read the handicapping and counterarguments
01

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Mitch Raposo (11-3) vs. Marcos Degli (15-3): Flyweight, 3 five-minute rounds at Meta APEX. Raposo needs to make each transition end in a stable position. Degli's regional record and Contender Series submission suggest that a prolonged scramble can keep generating finishing opportunities, but those results do not establish a comparable UFC rate sample.

Mitch Raposo
Attribute
Marcos Degli
11-3
Pro record
15-3
Flyweight
Booked division
Flyweight
125 lb
Booked limit
125 lb
65.00
Height
66.00
64.50
Reach
67.00
27
Age in reviewed profile
26
New England Cartel
Trains at
—

Measurements come from the reviewed athlete profiles (height and reach in inches). Age is the source snapshot, not a projected fight-night age. The listed fight limit follows the supplied card; past profile weigh-ins do not change the booking.

Venue Factor
Scheduled for 3 five-minute rounds. The round scenarios below are tactical questions, not invented statistical forecasts.
02

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Mitch Raposo portrait

Mitch Raposo

Mitch Raposo

Pro record
11-3
UFC bouts
—
Career KO/TKO wins
4
Career submission wins
3

Raposo enters at 11-3. His UFC record includes decision losses to Andre Lima and Sumudaerji followed by a decision win over Azat Maksum. Those fights provide evidence that he can work over fifteen minutes, but his published significant-striking balance is negative. A gameplan built only around avoiding the prospect's finish would therefore be insufficient; he needs to create clear offence while controlling where exchanges begin and end.

Recent results

  • W

    Azat Maksum

    Decision · 10/25/25 · UFC 321

  • L

    Sumudaerji

    Decision · 4/12/25 · UFC 314

  • L

    Andre Lima

    Decision · 6/1/24 · UFC 302

Marcos Degli portrait

Marcos Degli

Marcos Degli

Pro record
15-3
UFC bouts
0
Career KO/TKO wins
—
Career submission wins
—

Degli enters at 15-3 after submitting Paris Moran on Contender Series, following an LFA title run. UFC's signing report credits him with a long winning streak and a finishing-heavy professional record. The useful observation is that he has converted attacks in more than one phase, including a second-round submission in the contract-winning appearance. The profile's 1-0 header and per-minute figures are not his full professional record and are not treated as a completed UFC career.

Recent results

  • W

    Paris Moran

    Submission (rear-naked choke), R2 4:46 · 2026-09-22 · DWCS — Season 10, Week 7

03

The Numbers

Career statistics and what they say about this matchup

Published career statistics

Published profile averages describe past opposition, not a prediction of this fight. The source sample may include Contender Series appearances.

Mitch Raposo: Published UFC athlete-profile averages reviewed October 11, 2026. 3 UFC results appear in the reviewed log; the rate denominator may also include Contender Series appearances. These are not opponent- or division-adjusted.

Marcos Degli: No reconciled completed UFC rate sample. Showcase or regional figures are withheld; unavailable observations are not zero. The supplied card record 15-3 takes precedence over the profile header 1-0-0; no extra fight result is inferred from that difference.

Career statistical comparison for Mitch Raposo and Marcos Degli
MetricMitch RaposoMarcos Degli
Significant strikes landed / min1.91—
Significant strikes absorbed / min2.92—
Striking accuracy38%—
Striking defence61%—
Takedowns / 15 min1.98—
Takedown defence68%—
Submission attempts / 15 min0—
Knockdowns / 15 min0—

Submission attempts are not submission wins. Defence percentages depend on attempts faced. No matched division cohort is supplied for these profile averages, so division ranks are unavailable. A dash means unavailable data, not zero.

04

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Raposo's structured minutes against Degli's connected finishing threats

Raposo needs to make each transition end in a stable position. Degli's regional record and Contender Series submission suggest that a prolonged scramble can keep generating finishing opportunities, but those results do not establish a comparable UFC rate sample.

The Deep Read

Raposo's advantage in familiarity with UFC competition only matters if it produces better decisions during exchanges. He should aim to make Degli attempt a second setup after the first attack is defended. A stable frame, a completed stand-up or a secured top position can all serve that purpose. Merely slowing down while conceding the cleaner offence would turn experience into a passive strategy rather than an advantage.

Degli's most useful approach is to connect threats without confusing activity with control. If a striking exchange makes Raposo retreat, the next question is whether the fence or level change is available. If a takedown is defended, the next question is whether a front headlock or back exposure has appeared. Those are plausible tactical links supported by his submission results, but the specific sequence against Raposo remains an editorial hypothesis rather than an observed fact.

Raposo's own grappling cannot be reduced to submission defence. His wrestling background and published takedown activity give him a way to choose the phase, provided he controls the landing. Top position could interrupt Degli's striking and force the newcomer to show a bottom game against UFC resistance. An entry with the neck exposed, however, risks delivering the kind of connected submission exchange that Raposo should be trying to limit.

The statistical comparison is deliberately uneven. Raposo has actual UFC results; Degli's public profile reflects a much narrower showcase sample. Converting Degli's takedown and submission-attempt averages into a supposed superiority would overstate the evidence. The stronger argument for his threat is the documented finishing record and the way a failed attack can lead to another phase. The stronger argument for Raposo is repeated, round-winning control against a higher level of opponent.

Path to Victory

Mitch Raposo

Score before changing levels, finish takedowns with safe head position and make every scramble end in a controlled reset. Turn fifteen minutes into distinct exchanges instead of a continuous finishing sequence.

Why they win
01
Primary route

Score before changing levels, finish takedowns with safe head position and make every scramble end in a controlled reset. Turn fifteen minutes into distinct exchanges instead of a continuous finishing sequence.

02
Supporting evidence

Raposo enters at 11-3. His UFC record includes decision losses to Andre Lima and Sumudaerji followed by a decision win over Azat Maksum. Those fights provide evidence that he can work over fifteen minutes, but his published significant-striking balance is negative. A gameplan built only around avoiding the prospect's finish would therefore be insufficient; he needs to create clear offence while controlling where exchanges begin and end.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Entry

    Establish enough striking offence that Degli cannot enter without consequence.

  2. 2
    Position

    Protect the neck during takedown attempts and settle the hips before advancing on top.

  3. 3
    Adjustment

    After defending a submission, complete the escape and score; do not remain in the same unresolved position.

Path to Victory

Marcos Degli

Use strikes to draw a defensive movement, attach the next grappling threat and advance only when the position supports it. Make Raposo defend consecutive problems without surrendering balance in the chase.

Why they win
01
Primary route

Use strikes to draw a defensive movement, attach the next grappling threat and advance only when the position supports it. Make Raposo defend consecutive problems without surrendering balance in the chase.

02
Supporting evidence

Degli enters at 15-3 after submitting Paris Moran on Contender Series, following an LFA title run. UFC's signing report credits him with a long winning streak and a finishing-heavy professional record. The useful observation is that he has converted attacks in more than one phase, including a second-round submission in the contract-winning appearance. The profile's 1-0 header and per-minute figures are not his full professional record and are not treated as a completed UFC career.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Entry

    Build the first attack to create a reaction rather than forcing a finish immediately.

  2. 2
    Position

    Connect transitions when Raposo is moving, but secure the grip before spending energy on a submission.

  3. 3
    Adjustment

    If Raposo slows the fight from top position, prioritise a workable frame and stand-up rather than low-percentage attacks underneath.

Danger Zone

How Mitch Raposo loses

  • Raposo wins the first defensive moment but remains attached in a scramble that generates another submission threat.

  • He limits danger but loses rounds because his own offence never becomes clear.

Danger Zone

How Marcos Degli loses

  • Degli chases an early submission and concedes sustained top position when it fails.

  • He cannot reproduce his regional pace against a fighter who separates each exchange and makes him restart.

Conditional tactical scenario, not a statistical projection

Round 1: what to watch

Round 1: watch whether Degli's first failed attack leads to another credible threat or simply ends the sequence. Raposo should be trying to force the latter while still scoring.

Conditional tactical scenario, not a statistical projection

Round 2: what to watch

Round 2: the cost of repeated grappling attempts becomes relevant, but neither fighter's cardio can be inferred from one early success. Stable position is the best evidence of sustainable work.

Conditional tactical scenario, not a statistical projection

Round 3: what to watch

Round 3: a close score rewards clear offence. Raposo cannot rely on defensive composure alone; Degli cannot rely on the appearance of activity without productive control or damage.

05

The Verdict

The matchup read, the betting market, and the swing factors

Editorial handicapping

Mitch Raposo 50% · Marcos Degli 50%

Subjective analyst estimates for the announced opponent and distance. These are not calibrated outputs from the prediction model. Method probabilities are portions of the overall outcome distribution, not percentages conditional on winning.

Raposo and Degli are held at 50/50 because the evidence supports different routes without a convincing common baseline. Raposo has more established UFC experience and the larger decision allocation; Degli has the greater submission allocation from his documented finishing threat. Regional finishing success is not treated as a calibrated UFC rate.

Raposo needs to make each transition end in a stable position. Degli's regional record and Contender Series submission suggest that a prolonged scramble can keep generating finishing opportunities, but those results do not establish a comparable UFC rate sample.

The assessment is for 3 five-minute rounds at 125 lb. The six outcomes are mutually exclusive allocations conditional on a decisive result; draws and no-contests are not separately priced. Method shares are not conditional on the fighter winning, and the 100-cell display visualises these allocations rather than reporting simulated fights.

Raposo rises toward 60% if he repeatedly ends transitions in secure positions; he falls toward 40% if each defended attack leaves Degli another grip, back exposure or submission sequence. Scenario range for Mitch Raposo: 40–60%; the complementary range for Marcos Degli is 40–60%. These are judgment-based scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

If you only read 2 things
1

Mitch Raposo 50% / Marcos Degli 50%. No overall preference; neither side has a central estimated advantage. Raposo and Degli are held at 50/50 because the evidence supports different routes without a convincing common baseline. Raposo has more established UFC experience and the larger decision allocation; Degli has the greater submission allocation from his documented finishing threat. Regional finishing success is not treated as a calibrated UFC rate.

2

Raposo rises toward 60% if he repeatedly ends transitions in secure positions; he falls toward 40% if each defended attack leaves Degli another grip, back exposure or submission sequence.

Editorial outcome distribution · 100 percentage points

Each square represents one percentage point of the subjective editorial distribution. This is an illustration of the assigned probabilities, not a simulation or an observed result.

Mitch Raposo · KO/TKO — 8%Mitch Raposo · Decision — 33%Mitch Raposo · Submission — 9%Marcos Degli · KO/TKO — 12%Marcos Degli · Decision — 13%Marcos Degli · Submission — 25%

Each square = 1 editorial percentage point. Mitch Raposo gold · Marcos Degli orange · color opacity: 100% = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Mitch Raposo win probability
0%
8%
33%
9%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • A clean counter or accumulated offence after stable defence can produce a stoppage.

  • Ending scrambles in a stable position is his most plausible way to win rounds.

  • Securing a dominant transition can open a submission, but control is the main argument.

Marcos Degli win probability
0%
12%
13%
25%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Connected attacks can expose striking opportunities during a defensive reset.

  • If finishing attacks create sustained productive control, he can win without a stoppage.

  • The documented DWCS rear-naked choke supports a dangerous connected grappling route.

Editorial estimate vs market

Mitch Raposo

Insufficient price data
Editorial win estimate
50%
Fair odds
+100
Reference quote
—
Fair decimal odds
2.00
Estimated EV
—
Edge vs no-vig market
—

Marcos Degli

Insufficient price data
Editorial win estimate
50%
Fair odds
+100
Reference quote
—
Fair decimal odds
2.00
Estimated EV
—
Edge vs no-vig market
—

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Mitch Raposo

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 2.00 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Marcos Degli

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 2.00 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Fair prices and expected value are arithmetic consequences of these subjective estimates. A positive calculation at an old quote is not a verified current opportunity.

Conviction
0
2/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Limited comparable evidence leaves the central estimate even; method risks remain different. Lean: No preference (50/50).

What backs the lean

  • Raposo needs to make each transition end in a stable position. Degli's regional record and Contender Series submission suggest that a prolonged scramble can keep generating finishing opportunities, but those results do not establish a comparable UFC rate sample.

  • Raposo and Degli are held at 50/50 because the evidence supports different routes without a convincing common baseline. Raposo has more established UFC experience and the larger decision allocation; Degli has the greater submission allocation from his documented finishing threat. Regional finishing success is not treated as a calibrated UFC rate.

What limits it

  • Degli's Contender Series rates are withheld from the UFC comparison rather than presented as UFC career observations.

  • These are subjective editorial estimates without out-of-sample calibration; numerical precision does not imply measurement precision.

Final Assessment

Mitch Raposo 50% / Marcos Degli 50%. No overall preference; neither side has a central estimated advantage. Raposo and Degli are held at 50/50 because the evidence supports different routes without a convincing common baseline. Raposo has more established UFC experience and the larger decision allocation; Degli has the greater submission allocation from his documented finishing threat. Regional finishing success is not treated as a calibrated UFC rate.

Raposo rises toward 60% if he repeatedly ends transitions in secure positions; he falls toward 40% if each defended attack leaves Degli another grip, back exposure or submission sequence.

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