Virna Jandiroba vs Tatiana Suarez – UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady Fight Analytics & Prediction

CO-MAIN · WOMEN'S STRAWWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady

Virna Jandiroba

“Carcará”

23W4L

Submission Grappler

Tatiana Suarez

12W1L

Wrestling Pressure Finisher

14 career subs against 4.52 takedowns per fifteen — elite 115 lb grappling

Women's StrawweightMeta APEX, Las Vegas, NevadaNovember 7, 2026Meta APEX — small cage, visible control rewards scoring rides

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Suarez imposes with 4.52 takedowns per fifteen at 60% striking accuracy and 1.63 significant strikes absorbed per minute; Jandiroba answers with 72% takedown defence and 1.4 submission attempts per fifteen. The co-main is a grappling mirror where one mistake — armbar off Suarez's own entry, or ride time without a finish — decides everything.

Paths that change the fight

Virna JandirobaDeny three takedown chains, threaten armbar or RNC in transitions, and steal a standing Round 3 on activity — or one submission off Suarez's own entry.
Tatiana SuarezJab-to-level-change from southpaw, chain wrestle to back takes, bank Meta APEX control time, and finish through guillotine or RNC when Jandiroba turns.

What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 5/10

72% takedown defence and 1.4 Sub/15 — live reversal tools.
25-point submission outcome mass for Jandiroba.

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Virna Jandiroba

Insufficient price data

Model win probability: 38%
Fair decimal odds: 2.63

Reference quote—

Tatiana Suarez

Insufficient price data

Model win probability: 62%
Fair decimal odds: 1.61

Reference quote—

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Sources and data limitations

UFC career aggregates through Ricci (Apr 2026) and Godinez RNC (Apr 2026): Jandiroba SLpM 2.27, StrAcc 41%, StrDef 55%, SApM 2.86, TD/15 3.13, TDAcc 39%, TDDef 72%, Sub/15 1.4; Suarez SLpM 2.86, StrAcc 60%, StrDef 44%, SApM 1.63, TD/15 4.52, TDAcc 45%, TDDef 57%, Sub/15 0.7. Win-method career totals: Jandiroba 1 KO / 14 Sub / 8 Dec; Suarez 2 KO / 6 Sub / 4 Dec. Composites striking 41/46, grappling 51/49. BetOnline not verified at review; fair central Suarez −163.

Model methodology

Read the evidence Inspect prices and assumptions

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Both women are elite grapplers, but the rate sheet and recent form favour Suarez as the imposer: 4.52 TD/15, 60% StrAcc, 1.63 SApM, and back-to-back 2025–26 wins over Amanda Lemos (UD) and Lupita Godinez (RNC) after the Weili Zhang title loss. Jandiroba's case rests on 72% takedown defence, 1.4 Sub/15, and 14 career submission wins — she armbarred Lemos the fight before Suarez outpointed Amanda. The Mackenzie Dern loss (Oct 2025) is the cautionary scoring template when top control goes the other way. Model lean: Tatiana Suarez 62% · Virna Jandiroba 38% · conviction 5/10.

Virna Jandiroba

Attribute

Tatiana Suarez

Age

+3 years Jandiroba35

5'3"

Height

+2" Suarez5'5"

64"

Reach

+2" Suarez66"

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

23-4-0

Pro Record

12-1-0

9-4

UFC Record

9-1

Submission-first grappler

Fighting Style

Chain wrestler — ride time and RNC/guillotine

Suarez is taller with a two-inch reach edge from southpaw against Jandiroba's orthodox frame. Age 38 versus 35 is a tie-breaker, not a headline — both carry deep Octagon samples at strawweight. The physical gap matters most in standing entries: Suarez can jab-to-level-change with length; Jandiroba wants underhooks and frames to deny clean doubles.

Venue Factor
Meta APEX rewards visible control — it helps Suarez's ride-time decision paths if she secures top. Jandiroba's submission threat off bottom remains live in a small cage with fewer escape lanes; the same geometry that helps Suarez chain wrestles also compresses scrambles where armbars and rear-naked chokes appear.

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Virna Jandiroba

Pro Record

23-4-0

UFC Record

9-4 across thirteen UFC bouts

Streak

W UD Tabatha Ricci — Apr 4, 2026

Finish Rate

15 of 23 wins inside the distance — 14 submissions, 1 KO/TKO

Avg Fight Time

~12:40

Chin · Durable — zero finish losses in four defeatsSOS · Top-10 adjacentSubmission grappler

Jandiroba's identity is submission density: 61% of career wins by sub, 72% takedown defence, and a Ricci decision in April 2026 that shows she still scores at the top of 115 when the fight stays competitive on the feet. The Dern unanimous decision in October 2025 is the blueprint for how she loses — extended top control without her own finish. Four decision losses, zero finish losses: she does not break; she gets out-scored when rides accumulate.

Tatiana Suarez

Pro Record

12-1-0

UFC Record

9-1 — sole loss UD to Weili Zhang (title)

Streak

W SUB RNC Lupita Godinez — R2, UFC 327, Apr 2026

Finish Rate

8 of 12 wins inside the distance — 6 submissions, 2 KO/TKO

Avg Fight Time

~11:55

Chin · Proven — one decision loss only (Zhang)SOS · Title-fight provenWrestling pressure finisher

Suarez returned from injury and title defeat to reassert imposition: decision over Amanda Lemos, then a Round-2 rear-naked choke over Lupita Godinez — a fighter Jandiroba had outpointed. Her rate sheet at 115 is elite on takedown volume (4.52/15), striking accuracy (60%), and damage economy (1.63 SApM). The Zhang loss proved she can be out-worked for twenty-five minutes; this co-main is fifteen, which favours her chain-wrestling bursts over Jandiroba's counter-sub traps.

Virna Jandiroba

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Knockdown Exchange

KD dealt vs absorbed

Tatiana Suarez

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Virna Jandirobasignature weapons

Armbar Series14 career submission wins — Lemos R2 armbar is the live UFC proof against a Suarez-level wrestler

×14

Takedown Defence72% TDDef — can extend standing minutes and force lower-percentage Suarez entries

×0

Submission Rate1.4 Sub/15 — doubles Suarez's 0.7; the model's 25-point sub bucket for Jandiroba

×0

Tatiana Suarezsignature weapons

Chain Wrestling4.52 TD/15 at 45% accuracy — strawweight-elite imposition volume

×0

Clean Striking2.86 SLpM at 60% accuracy with 1.63 SApM — wins brief standing windows

×0

Guillotine / RNCGodinez RNC, Andrade guillotine, De La Rosa guillotine — finishes when Jandiroba turns

×4

Virna Jandiroba

Tabatha Ricci

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: veteran

RR3

UFC Fight Night — Apr 4, 2026

Mackenzie Dern

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: elite

RR3

UFC 321 — Oct 25, 2025

Xiaonan Yan

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: elite

RR3

UFC 314 — Apr 12, 2025

Amanda Lemos

Submission — Armbar

Opponent context: elite

RR2

UFC Fight Night — Jul 20, 2024

Lupita Godinez

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: veteran

RR3

UFC Fight Night — Mar 30, 2024

Pattern

4-1 in the last five with the loss the instructive one: Dern's ride-time decision mirrors what Suarez wants to replicate. The Lemos armbar is the counter-template — finish off a top athlete's aggression. Ricci and Yan wins prove she still banks cards against ranked strawweights when minutes stay competitive.

Tatiana Suarez

Lupita Godinez

Submission — RNC

Opponent context: veteran

RR2

UFC 327 — Apr 11, 2026

Amanda Lemos

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: elite

RR3

UFC Fight Night — Sep 13, 2025

Weili Zhang

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: elite

RR5

UFC 312 — Feb 8, 2025 (title)

Jéssica Andrade

Submission — Guillotine

Opponent context: elite

RR2

UFC Fight Night — Aug 5, 2023

Montana De La Rosa

Submission — Guillotine

Opponent context: veteran

RR2

UFC Fight Night — Feb 25, 2023

Pattern

4-1 in five with the Zhang title loss the only blemish. Since then: outpoint Lemos, submit Godinez. Form arc supports the 62% lean — sharper recent results against the same elite names Jandiroba has beaten or finished, without erasing Jandiroba's submission equity.

Virna Jandiroba

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Tatiana Suarez

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Critical Insight
Career donuts reflect full pro résumés: Jandiroba is 61% submission wins (14 of 23) with only one KO; Suarez is 50% submissions and 17% KO with four decisions in twelve wins. UFC-scoped finishes cluster in Round 2 for both — Lemos armbar, Godinez RNC, Andrade guillotine — which aligns with the model's combined 47-point submission mass (25 + 22).

Common Opponents

Opponent	Virna	Tatiana
Amanda Lemos	W· SUB armbar R2 (Jul 2024)	W· UD3 (Sep 2025)
Jandiroba finished Lemos; Suarez outpointed her a year later — different paths against the same elite striker-grappler
Lupita Godinez	W· UD3 (Mar 2024)	W· SUB RNC R2 (Apr 2026)
Jandiroba won on the cards; Suarez submitted Godinez — the triangle that supports Suarez as sharper current form without erasing Jandiroba's upside

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and sample flags before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

SLpM 25% · StrAcc 30% · StrDef 30% · SApM 15%

Virna

Tatiana

Suarez owns accuracy and absorption — 60% StrAcc, 1.63 SApM — while Jandiroba's 55% StrDef keeps standing exchanges survivable at lower 2.27 SLpM output.

Grappling

TD/15 25% · TDAcc 25% · TDDef 30% · Sub/15 20%

Virna

Tatiana

Suarez leads takedown volume; Jandiroba leads takedown defence and Sub/15. Neither profile is one-dimensional — the composite gap is two points, not twenty.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

Virna

0.0

Tatiana

Essentially level on composites; the 62-38 model line comes from form and imposition paths, not a blowout on gauges.

Cardio

Fight time · pace · R3/R1 output · champ rounds

Virna

Tatiana

Both have multi-round UFC samples. Zhang five-round loss is irrelevant here; three rounds favour Suarez's burst-and-ride cycles over Jandiroba's need to deny cumulative control.

Overall

(Technical + Cardio) / 2

Virna

0.0

Tatiana

Under two composite points separate them — consistent with conviction 5/10 on a 62-38 lean.

Metric	Virna	Tatiana
Prior UFC Bouts	13 (9-4)	10 (9-1)
Finish Losses	0	0
Pace Tier	Low volume — 2.27 SLpM	Moderate — 2.86 SLpM
TD Volume	3.13 TD/15	4.52 TD/15
Sub Threat	1.4 Sub/15	0.7 Sub/15

Archetype Base Rate

Submission Grappler 38%62% Wrestling Pressure Finisher

Editorial model lean — no archetype base-rate row applied · winPctA is Jandiroba's 38% win share. Suarez is favoured at 62% on imposition metrics, recent top-10 results, and Meta APEX control optics — capped because both women can end the fight in one grappling transition.

Virna JandirobaTatiana Suarez

Women's Strawweight

· 40 fighters

Stat	Virna	Virna rank	Div avg	Tatiana rank	Tatiana
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	2.27	—	~2.4–2.8	—	2.86
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	41%	—	~44–48%	5/40elite	60%
Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit.	55%	18/40	~50–54%	—	44%
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	2.86	—	~2.5–3.0	8/40elite	1.63
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	3.13	6/40	~1.8–2.2	2/40elite	4.52
TD Acc	39%	—	~38–42%	—	45%
TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed.	72%	8/40elite	~62–68%	—	57%
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	1.4	4/40elite	~0.4–0.6	—	0.7
Prior UFC Bouts	13	—	—	—	10

Statistical Verdict
Suarez wins the offensive striking and takedown-volume cells; Jandiroba wins takedown defence and submission attempt rate. The fight resolves where those overlap — Suarez's 44% StrDef is the standing vulnerability; Jandiroba's Dern loss is the scoring vulnerability on the mat.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

Control Time per Round (sec)

Virna Jandiroba

Available UFC sample: thirteen fights, thirty-four observed regulation rounds (eleven / nine / seven round observations by round number). Shortened rounds included.
Control time rises in Round 2 (78 sec avg) when takedowns land — the same window as the Lemos armbar and Dern ride-time loss.
Ground share peaks near 20% in R2–R3 — submission traps live where clinch and mat phases merge.

Tatiana Suarez

Available UFC sample: ten fights, twenty-eight observed regulation rounds (ten / eight / six by round number).
Control curve climbs Round 1 → Round 2 (88 to 112 sec) — Godinez and Andrade finishes arrived in that second-round peak.
Ground strike share near 28–29% in R2–R3 reflects ride-and-finish wrestling rather than pure stand-up volume.

Critical Insight
Suarez out-lands and out-controls in every round on these averages — higher accuracy and 88–112 seconds of control in the first two frames. Jandiroba's counter is positional: ground share and control jump in Round 2 when she hits takedowns or survives to scramble — the Lemos template. Standing sig differentials are modest (roughly 2–3 strikes per round); the separation is control time and accuracy, which is why Suarez carries a 35-point decision bucket.

Strike targeting (available rounds)

Virna

46%

28%

26%

Head

46%

Body

28%

Legs

26%

Tatiana

52%

22%

26%

Head

52%

Body

22%

Legs

26%

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

VirnaTatiana

64%Distance62%

20%Clinch14%

16%Ground24%

Approximate share of significant strikes by range in available rounds, weighted by strike volume. Incomplete splits are excluded. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much

Open SpaceTatiana owns it

2.86 SLpM at 60% accuracy vs 2.27 at 41% — until Jandiroba closes or denies

Pocket / ExchangesVirna owns it

55% StrDef and lower absorption — Jandiroba survives brief trades

Clinch / EntriesTatiana owns it

4.52 TD/15 and southpaw level changes

GroundTatiana owns it

Suarez ride time vs Jandiroba 1.4 Sub/15 — coin flip on who wins the phase

Path to Victory

Virna Jandiroba

Deny three takedown chains, threaten armbar or RNC in transitions, and steal a standing Round 3 on activity — or one submission off Suarez's own entry.

Why they win

Submission density

14 career subs, 61% of wins, 1.4 Sub/15 — the model's 25-point reversal mass.

72% takedown defence

Strongest statistical counter to Suarez's 4.52 TD/15 imposition.

Proven vs Godinez

UD win over an opponent Suarez finished — proof Jandiroba can out-score elite grapplers.

Lemos armbar

Finished the same striker Suarez later decisioned — operational counterargument.

Zero finish losses

Four defeats all decisions — durability is not the issue; scoring rides are.

The gameplan

1
Frame entries
Underhooks on doubles; do not accept bottom without a trap.
2
Target 44% StrDef
Brief standing windows when Suarez exits grappling.
3
Armbar hunt
When Suarez passes or stacks — Lemos timing in Round 2.
4
Avoid ride optics
Wall-walk or threaten sub if stuck bottom — Dern loss is the anti-template.
5
Round 3 activity
If still upright, bank strikes for judges — primary reversal path.

Path to Victory

Tatiana Suarez

Jab-to-level-change from southpaw, chain wrestle to back takes, bank Meta APEX control time, and finish through guillotine or RNC when Jandiroba turns.

Why they win

Wrestling volume + accuracy

4.52 TD/15 at 45% TDAcc — wins neutral-to-offensive wrestling more often on paper.

Cleaner striking

60% StrAcc, 1.63 SApM — punishes 44% StrDef windows in brief stand-up.

Recent top-10 results

UD Lemos, RNC Godinez after Zhang title loss.

Meta APEX optics

Visible control helps 35-point decision path.

Southpaw entries

Length and angle for jab-to-double chains against orthodox frames.

The gameplan

1
Southpaw jab to double
Chain wrestle off the lead hand — 4.52 TD/15 game.
2
Back takes
Ride time toward RNC sequences from Godinez win.
3
Guillotine on turns
When Jandiroba scrambles — Andrade / De La Rosa routes.
4
Respect armbar
Pass with posture; no lazy stacks after Lemos film.
5
Decision backup
35-point bucket — control minutes if choke does not land.

Danger Zone

How Virna Jandiroba loses

Extended top control without sub — Dern/Zhang-style scoring against her.
Suarez RNC when she exposes the neck turning — Godinez blueprint.
Takedown defence erodes over three chains and cards slip 29-28 ×3.

Danger Zone

How Tatiana Suarez loses

Armbar off a failed pass — Lemos replication.
72% takedown defence forces a standing decision Jandiroba steals on Round 3 volume.
Scramble submission in compressed APEX geometry before ride time accumulates.

Mechanics of 62%

Imposition vs Counter-Sub

Suarez's 4.52 TD/15 against Jandiroba's 72% TDDef and 1.4 Sub/15 — the model assumes Suarez wins enough entries to score, not every entry. One armbar flips the entire lean.

4.52

Suarez TD/15

Form read

Lemos / Godinez Triangle

Jandiroba submitted Lemos and decisioned Godinez; Suarez decisioned Lemos and submitted Godinez. Recent elite strawweight results favour Suarez without erasing Jandiroba's finish equity.

Variance cap

True Grappling Mirror

Either side can end the fight in one mistake — conviction stays 5/10 despite a 62-38 line.

Jandiroba sub outcome pts

Venue

Meta APEX Geometry

Small cage helps visible control for Suarez decisions; fewer escape lanes raise scramble submission danger for both.

Tie-breaker only

Age 38 vs 35

Not a separate model feature — both samples are deep enough that mileage is commentary, not the headline input.

The Five-Round Clock

Virna Jandiroba danger windowTatiana Suarez danger windowNeutral / contested

R1 · 0:00–5:00First chains

Suarez's highest takedown success historically clusters early; Jandiroba's TDDef is freshest.

Critical Insight
Round 2 is the hinge — historical finishes for both live in the second frame while Suarez's control averages peak. Round 1 goes to whoever wins the first wrestling exchange; Round 3 goes to whoever is ahead on rides or still has takedown defence left.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things

Model: Tatiana Suarez 62% / Virna Jandiroba 38%, conviction 5/10 — elite grappling overlap caps confidence.

Suarez imposes with 4.52 TD/15, 60% StrAcc, and recent Lemos/Godinez wins; Jandiroba counters with 72% TDDef, 1.4 Sub/15, and the Lemos armbar precedent.

Primary reversal: Jandiroba denies chains and wins standing Round 3 — or one armbar off Suarez's entry. Fair central: Suarez −163, Jandiroba +163.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Jandiroba Submission — 25%Jandiroba Decision — 12%Jandiroba KO/TKO — 1%Suarez Decision — 35%Suarez Submission — 22%Suarez KO/TKO — 5%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. Virna Jandiroba gold · Tatiana Suarez orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Takedown volume vs defence

4.52 TD/15 into 72% TDDef — the central mechanical tug-of-war.

Submission mass

25-point Jandiroba sub bucket vs 22-point Suarez sub bucket — nearly half of all outcomes are submissions.

Decision path

Suarez's 35-point decision share reflects control optics at APEX; Jandiroba's 12-point decision path requires denial plus activity.

Recent form triangle

Lemos and Godinez results favour Suarez on the cross-read.

Dern template

Jandiroba's clearest loss mode — rides without finish — is Suarez's best non-sub path.

No BetOnline at review

Fair −163 / +163 is the central anchor until market posts.

Fight Scripts

of simulations

Ride Time Decision

Suarez chains takedowns, banks 90+ seconds a round at the APEX, and takes 29-28 ×3 — modal Suarez path.

Scripted outcomes for Virna Jandiroba vs Tatiana Suarez — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Virna Jandiroba win probability

12%

25%

KO/TKODECSUB

One point — single career KO; not the hunted path against Suarez.
Twelve points — requires takedown denial and standing minutes; Ricci/Yan template.
Twenty-five points — largest Jandiroba bucket; 14 career subs and Lemos armbar operational proof.

Tatiana Suarez win probability

35%

22%

KO/TKODECSUB

Five points — secondary to wrestling finishes but live in scrambles.
Thirty-five points — modal outcome; Meta APEX control and Zhang-style imposition compressed to three rounds.
Twenty-two points — Godinez RNC, Andrade guillotine routes when Jandiroba turns.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round

Tatiana

Even

Tatiana

29-28 Suarez

Control in R1 and R3 with a competitive second

Aligns with 35-point Suarez decision mass

29-28 Jandiroba

Denials plus Round 3 standing steal

12-point Jandiroba decision bucket

30-27 Suarez

Three successful ride rounds

Live if TD chains break 72% defence repeatedly

Model and price

Virna Jandiroba

Insufficient price data

Model win probability: 38%
Fair decimal odds: 2.63

Reference quote—

Estimated EV: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —

Tatiana Suarez

Insufficient price data

Model win probability: 62%
Fair decimal odds: 1.61

Reference quote—

Estimated EV: —
Edge vs no-vig market: —

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Virna Jandiroba

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 2.64 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Tatiana Suarez

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 1.62 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Full prop table (0)Expand for odds, model %, implied % and analyst verdict per prop

No prop prices recorded in this analysis.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

With no verified props, the fair moneyline anchor is Suarez −163. Jandiroba +163 aligns with 38% — the dog price for 25-point submission equity. When books post, submission and distance markets should be checked against the 47 combined sub points and 35-point Suarez decision modal.

Conviction

5/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Suarez 62–38 on imposition and form; Jandiroba's submission share and takedown defence keep the lean at five out of ten in a true grappling mirror. Lean: Tatiana Suarez.

What backs the lean

4.52 TD/15 and 45% takedown accuracy at strawweight elite level.
60% striking accuracy with 1.63 SApM — cleaner offensive numbers.
UD Lemos and RNC Godinez in the last year.
Meta APEX rewards visible control for the 35-point decision path.

What limits it

72% takedown defence and 1.4 Sub/15 — live reversal tools.
25-point submission outcome mass for Jandiroba.
Lemos armbar proves finish off Suarez-level aggression.
Grappling mirrors collapse variance — one transition decides.

Final Assessment

Virna Jandiroba and Tatiana Suarez bring the co-main's deepest credentials at 115: fourteen career submissions and 72% takedown defence against Olympic-caliber wrestling volume and back-to-back wins over Amanda Lemos and Lupita Godinez. The rate sheet favours Suarez as the imposer — 4.52 takedowns per fifteen, 60% striking accuracy, 1.63 significant strikes absorbed per minute — while Jandiroba's entire underdog case lives in the numbers the favourite cannot erase: 1.4 submission attempts per fifteen and an armbar finish over Lemos the fight before Suarez outpointed the same opponent.

The model reads 62–38 Suarez with conviction 5/10 because form and control optics at the Meta APEX outweigh composites that are nearly level, yet either woman can end the fight in one transition. Suarez's modal path is a decision built on ride time (35 simulation points); Jandiroba's is the armbar or rear-naked choke counter (25 points). The Dern loss reminds Jandiroba what happens when top control accumulates without a finish; the Godinez choke reminds Suarez what happens when Jandiroba turns at the wrong moment.

Fair central pricing: Suarez −163, Jandiroba +163. Take Suarez if you believe the first three takedown chains break 72% defence often enough to score; take Jandiroba if you believe denial and one scramble decide the night. This page lands on Suarez narrowly — not because Jandiroba lacks paths, but because imposition plus recent elite results tip a coin-flip grappling match slightly toward the wrestler.

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