Virna Jandiroba vs Tatiana Suarez: analysis & prediction

CO-MAIN · WOMEN'S STRAWWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker
Virna Jandiroba — Women's Strawweight fighter

Virna Jandiroba

“Carcará”
23W4L
Submission Grappler
VS
Tatiana Suarez — Women's Strawweight fighter

Tatiana Suarez

12W1L
Chain Wrestler

Fourteen career submissions against more than two and a half minutes of control a round

Women's StrawweightMeta APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, United StatesNovember 7, 202625ft Octagon (Meta APEX)

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Suarez wins fights by getting on top early and staying there, the way she rode Amanda Lemos and choked out Loopy Godinez. Jandiroba has never been finished and is most dangerous in scrambles, but her losses have come when opponents out-landed her on the feet. If her takedown defence holds through the opening round, the later rounds open up for her.

Paths that change the fight

  • Virna JandirobaSurvive the first-round takedown chains, get on top herself by the middle of the fight, and attack every exposed arm and neck in the scrambles — the route that finished Amanda Lemos after four submission attempts.
  • Tatiana SuarezChain takedowns in the opening round, ride the fence and the back, and bank rounds on control — 161 seconds a round of it — while waiting for the neck to open.
What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 5/10
  • Jandiroba's 73% takedown defence against Suarez's 57%.
  • Fourteen career submissions and a submission rate more than double Suarez's.

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Virna Jandiroba

Quote age unknown
Model win probability
38%
Fair odds
+163
Reference quote
+153 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds
2.63

Tatiana Suarez

Quote age unknown
Model win probability
62%
Fair odds
-163
Reference quote
-180 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds
1.61
Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Quotes listed with a date but no time are treated as undated.

Sources and data limitations

Career statistics and fight results through September 2026. Composite scores, win probabilities, fair prices and conviction are MMA Analytics model outputs.

Model methodology
Read the evidenceInspect prices and assumptions
01

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Two strawweights who have never been stopped, and two versions of the same plan. Tatiana Suarez is 12-1 and 9-1 in the Octagon, and her only defeat came in a five-round title fight against Zhang Weili. Since then she has ridden Amanda Lemos for more than nine minutes of a unanimous decision and choked out Loopy Godinez in the second round in April. She is the most accurate striker in a thirty-woman division at 60%, absorbs the second-fewest strikes and completes the second-most takedowns, 4.52 every fifteen minutes — but the real number is control: 161 seconds of every round spent on top. Virna Jandiroba is 23-4, 9-4 in the Octagon, a former Invicta champion with fourteen submission wins who has never been finished in twenty-seven fights. She controls 125 seconds a round herself, defends 73% of takedowns against Suarez's 57%, and attempts submissions twice as often. Her losses tell the story of her risk: in the 2025 title fight she landed nine takedowns and held Mackenzie Dern down for more than nine minutes, and still lost because she was out-landed 118 to 106. We make Suarez a 62-38 favourite at five out of ten.

Virna Jandiroba
Attribute
Tatiana Suarez
38
Age
3-year gap35
5'3" (63")
Height
+2" Suarez5'5" (65")
64"
Reach
+2" Suarez66"
37"
Leg Reach
+2" Suarez39"
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
23-4-0
Pro Record
12-1-0
9-4 (13 bouts)
UFC Record
9-1 (10 bouts)
Academia Fight House
Team
Millennia MMA
Apr 27, 2019
Octagon Debut
Jul 8, 2016
125 sec
Control Time / Round
161 sec
Submission-first grappler — 14 career submission wins
Fighting Style
Chain wrestler — 63% of her first-round strikes land on the ground

Suarez carries every length measurement — two inches of height, two of reach and two of leg reach — and fights from southpaw against an orthodox opponent, which lines her lead hand and lead leg up with Jandiroba's entries. The frame matters mostly in the tie-up: Suarez's takedowns come in bursts off the clinch and the fence, and a longer, heavier-set wrestler finishing a double against a 5'3" grappler is the matchup the numbers expect. Jandiroba is three years older at 38, but she has fought twenty-five minutes as recently as October 2025 and has never been stopped, so age reads as mileage rather than decline.

Venue Factor
The 25-foot Meta APEX cage puts the fence one or two steps behind either woman, and that suits the wrestler who wants to chain takedowns against it. Suarez lands 16 of her 28 first-round takedown attempts and averages more than three minutes of first-round control; Jandiroba will have less room to circle off the cage and reset. The same short distances also shorten every scramble, which is where Jandiroba's armbars and chokes have always lived.
02

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Virna Jandiroba portrait

Virna Jandiroba

Pro Record
23-4-0
UFC Record
9-4 across thirteen UFC bouts since April 2019
Streak
Won her last — unanimous decision over Tabatha Ricci, Apr 4, 2026
Finish Rate
65% (15 of 23 wins) — 14 submissions, 1 KO/TKO
Avg Fight Time
13:18
Chin · Never finished — all four losses are decisions (Carla Esparza, Mackenzie Dern twice, Amanda Ribas)SOS · Title-levelSubmission Artist

Jandiroba arrived in the UFC in 2019 as a former Invicta strawweight champion and has built a 9-4 Octagon record the same way she built her regional one: takedowns, top control and a submission threat from every position. She controls 125 seconds of an average round, lands about one takedown per round, and fourteen of her twenty-three wins are submissions — armbars of Amanda Lemos and Felice Herrig and a rear-naked choke of Mallory Martin inside the Octagon. What caps her is the feet. She lands 2.27 significant strikes per minute, 29th of 30 in the division, and every one of her four losses came when an opponent out-landed her: Dern won their 2025 title fight 118 to 106 in significant strikes despite Jandiroba's nine takedowns and nine minutes of control. She rebounded in April 2026 with a decision over Tabatha Ricci built on eight minutes of control while being out-landed 37 to 26.

Tatiana Suarez throwing a kick during a UFC bout

Tatiana Suarez

Pro Record
12-1-0
UFC Record
9-1 across ten UFC bouts since July 2016 — sole loss to Zhang Weili (title)
Streak
Two straight — unanimous decision over Amanda Lemos, rear-naked choke of Loopy Godinez
Finish Rate
67% (8 of 12 wins) — 6 submissions, 2 KO/TKO
Avg Fight Time
11:17
Chin · Never finished — one decision loss in thirteen professional fights (Zhang Weili, 2025 title fight)SOS · Title-levelWrestler

Suarez won The Ultimate Fighter in 2016, went 5-0 through 2019 with wins over Carla Esparza, Alexa Grasso and Nina Nunes, then lost nearly four years to injury. She came back in 2023 with second-round guillotines of Montana De La Rosa and Jéssica Andrade, earned a title shot, and lost a five-round decision to Zhang Weili in February 2025 in which she was out-landed 53 to 12 and spent almost eleven minutes underneath. Her answer was pure Suarez: more than nine minutes on top of Amanda Lemos, then a rear-naked choke of Loopy Godinez at 2:29 of the second round. Her rate line is the strawweight division's most efficient — 60% striking accuracy (1st of 30), 1.63 absorbed per minute (2nd), 4.52 takedowns per fifteen minutes (2nd) — and she spends 161 seconds of an average round in control, rising to 202 seconds in first rounds.

Virna Jandiroba
0 dealt · 0 absorbed
Knockdown Exchange
Knockdowns dealt vs absorbed.
Tatiana Suarez
0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Virna Jandirobasignature weapons

Rear-Naked ChokeHalf of her fourteen submissions — Mallory Martin at 1:16 of Round 2 in the UFC, six more before it
×7
ArmbarAmanda Lemos at 4:48 of Round 2 and Felice Herrig at 1:44 of Round 1 in the UFC, three more on the way up
×5
Triangle and Arm-TriangleAn arm-triangle of Janaisa Morandin in an Invicta title defense and a triangle of Carla Ramos
×2

Tatiana Suarezsignature weapons

GuillotineMontana De La Rosa at 2:51 and Jéssica Andrade at 1:31, both in Round 2 — the chokes that marked her 2023 return
×2
Rear-Naked ChokeAlexa Grasso at 2:44 of Round 1 in 2018 and Loopy Godinez at 2:29 of Round 2 in April 2026
×2
PunchesCarla Esparza at 4:33 of Round 3 after landing 82 of 98 significant strikes, and Arline Coban before the UFC
×2

Virna Jandiroba

W
Tabatha Ricci
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: ranked

R3
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan — Apr 4, 2026
L
Mackenzie Dern
Decision — Unanimous (title fight)

Opponent context: elite

R5
UFC 321 — Oct 25, 2025
W
Yan Xiaonan
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: ranked

R3
UFC 314 — Apr 12, 2025
W
Amanda Lemos
Submission — Armbar

Opponent context: ranked

R2 (4:48)
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba — Jul 20, 2024
W
Loopy Godinez
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: ranked

R3
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot — Mar 30, 2024
Pattern

Four wins in five, and the shape of them is consistent: long control, few strikes. She held Yan Xiaonan down for nearly ten of fifteen minutes and landed only eleven significant strikes, rode Tabatha Ricci for eight minutes while being out-landed 37 to 26, and finished Amanda Lemos with an armbar after four submission attempts in under ten minutes. The one loss is the instructive one. Against Mackenzie Dern she won the grappling on paper — nine takedowns, more than nine minutes of control — and lost the fight on the feet, out-landed 118 to 106 across twenty-five minutes.

Tatiana Suarez

W
Loopy Godinez
Submission — Rear-naked choke

Opponent context: ranked

R2 (2:29)
UFC 327 — Apr 11, 2026
W
Amanda Lemos
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: ranked

R3
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva — Sep 13, 2025
L
Zhang Weili
Decision — Unanimous (title fight)

Opponent context: elite

R5
UFC 312 — Feb 8, 2025
W
Jéssica Andrade
Submission — Guillotine

Opponent context: elite

R2 (1:31)
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Font — Aug 5, 2023
W
Montana De La Rosa
Submission — guillotine choke

Opponent context: ufc

R2 (2:51)
UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen — Feb 25, 2023
Pattern

Four wins in five, and three of them were finished or dominated from the top. Godinez was taken down on all three attempts, controlled for five minutes and choked out at 2:29 of the second; Lemos spent nine and a half minutes underneath; De La Rosa and Andrade were both guillotined in the second round. The loss is the exception that defines her limits: Zhang Weili stuffed fourteen of her fifteen takedown attempts, out-landed her 53 to 12 and controlled her for almost eleven minutes. When Suarez's wrestling lands she dominates; when it does not, she has little else.

Virna Jandiroba

Win Methods
Wins by Round

Tatiana Suarez

Win Methods
Wins by Round
Critical Insight
Both women finish early or not at all. Fourteen of Jandiroba's fifteen stoppages came inside ten minutes — eight in the first round, six in the second — and seven of Suarez's eight did the same. Submissions carry both résumés: fourteen of Jandiroba's twenty-three wins and six of Suarez's twelve. The difference is in the decisions. Jandiroba's eight decision wins are control wins with little striking; Suarez's four came from the same top game plus the most accurate hands in the division. Neither woman has ever been stopped, which is why the model keeps half of all outcomes on the scorecards even in a matchup this grappling-heavy.

Common Opponents

OpponentVirnaTatiana
Amanda LemosW· SUB armbar R2 4:48 (Jul 2024)W· UD (Sep 2025)
Jandiroba finished her after four submission attempts in under ten minutes; Suarez took her down three times and controlled her for more than nine minutes. Two routes to the same result, and the clearest look at each woman's version of top position.
Loopy GodinezW· UD (Mar 2024)W· SUB rear-naked choke R2 2:29 (Apr 2026)
Jandiroba won on control, landing 2 of 9 takedowns while being out-landed 38 to 30; Suarez completed all three of her takedowns and finished inside eight minutes — though Godinez also took Suarez down twice, the only opponent to do that more than once in her UFC career.
Carla EsparzaL· UD (Apr 2019)W· TKO R3 4:33 (Sep 2018)
Jandiroba's UFC debut loss came against a wrestler who out-controlled her; seven months earlier Suarez had landed 82 of 98 significant strikes on Esparza and stopped her in the third.
03

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and UFC experience before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

SLpM 25% · StrAcc 30% · StrDef 30% · SApM 15%

0
Virna
0
Tatiana

Five points to Suarez on efficiency: 60% accuracy (1st of 30) and 1.63 absorbed per minute (2nd) against Jandiroba's 41% and 2.86. Jandiroba's 56% striking defence beats Suarez's 44%, but neither woman throws much — 2.27 and 2.86 landed per minute against a 3.88 division mean.

Grappling

TD/15 25% · TDAcc 25% · TDDef 30% · Sub/15 20%

0
Virna
0
Tatiana

Two points to Jandiroba. Suarez takes the offensive cells — 4.52 takedowns per fifteen (2nd) at 46% against 3.12 (4th) at 39% — while Jandiroba takes the defensive and finishing ones: 73% takedown defence against 57%, and 1.39 submission attempts per fifteen against 0.66. The formula does not count control time, where Suarez leads 161 seconds a round to 125.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

0
Virna
0.0
Tatiana

A point and a half apart. The composites are close to level; the 62-38 line comes from who gets on top first and what each woman does once the fight is standing.

MetricVirnaTatiana
Avg Fight Time13:1811:17
Control / Round125 sec161 sec
Round 1 Control130 sec — 14 of 34 takedowns202 sec — 16 of 28 takedowns
Submission Threat1.39 per 15 min (4th of 30)0.66 per 15 min (10th of 30)
Stoppage Losses0 in 27 fights0 in 13 fights

Archetype Base Rate

Submission Artist 32.4%67.6% Wrestler

37-fight archetype sample — wrestlers 25-12 · Submission artists are 12-25 against wrestlers across thirty-seven meetings, 32.4%. The prior leans the same way as the model and a little further; it knows nothing about Jandiroba's 73% takedown defence or the fact that she is as happy on top as Suarez is.

Virna JandirobaTatiana Suarez

Women's Strawweight

· 30 fighters

Rank bars use the recorded division cohort. Where no rank is shown, the comparison shows the difference from the published division average; the white marker denotes equality. Percentage differences are percentage points (pp). Higher is not always better: fewer strikes absorbed is preferable.

StatVirnaVirna comparisonDiv avgTatiana comparisonTatiana
SLpM2.27
29/30
3.88
23/30
2.86
Str Acc41%
22/30
46.5%
1/30elite
60%
Str Def56%
17/30
54.7%
29/30
44%
SApM2.86
9/30
3.73
2/30elite
1.63
KD Avg0.09
13/30
0.13
15/30
0.00
Damage Ratio0.79
27/30
1.12
3/30
1.75
TD/153.12
4/30elite
1.64
2/30elite
4.52
TD Acc39% (36 of 92)
—
—
—
46% (34 of 74)
TD Def73% (9 conceded of 33)
11/30
—
19/30
57% (3 conceded of 7)
Sub/151.39
4/30elite
0.62
10/30
0.66
Control / Round125 sec
—
—
—
161 sec
Avg Fight Time13:18
—
—
—
11:17
Statistical Verdict
Suarez owns the efficiency cells — the most accurate striker and the second-lowest absorption rate in a thirty-woman pool, plus the second-busiest takedown rate. Jandiroba owns the defensive and finishing cells — 73% takedown defence against 57%, 56% striking defence against 44%, and a submission rate more than double Suarez's. Where they meet is control: 161 seconds a round against 125, and both women do their best work from on top. The fight is decided by whose takedowns land first.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

Control Time per Round (sec)

Virna Jandiroba

  • Her control never dips: 130, 130 and 120 seconds a round — two minutes of every round on top — built on roughly one takedown per round (14 of 34 attempts in first rounds, 10 of 24 in seconds, 9 of 29 in thirds).
  • Striking output is low and climbs only late: 8.8, 9.3 and 12.9 significant strikes a round, with the head share rising from 69% to 87% as the body work disappears.
  • Submission attempts are spread across the fight — six in first rounds, six in second rounds, four in third rounds — which is why her finishes arrive at any point in the first ten minutes.
  • Her opponents save their best for last: 9.6 and 10.5 significant strikes against her in the first two rounds, then 20.2 in an average third round. The rounds she loses are the late standing ones.

Tatiana Suarez

  • She lives on top from the opening bell: 202 seconds of control in an average first round — two-thirds of the round — then 157 and 143 seconds.
  • 63% of her first-round strikes land on the ground and her opponents land just 5.6 significant strikes in an average first round and 4.9 in a second.
  • Takedown success is front-loaded: 16 of 28 attempts in first rounds and 14 of 24 in seconds, then 4 of 17 in thirds, when opponents have seen the entries.
  • Her accuracy holds throughout — 63.1%, 60.6%, 57.9% — and her third-round output rises to 20.6 as more of the fight happens standing.
Critical Insight
Both women win rounds from the top, and the numbers say Suarez gets there faster and stays longer: 202 seconds of first-round control against Jandiroba's 130, with nearly two-thirds of her first-round offense on the ground. Jandiroba's control is flatter and more durable — 130, 130, 120 — and her takedown success holds at about one per round deep into fights. The window for the underdog is the third round, where Suarez's takedowns fall to 4 of 17 attempts; the catch is that it is also the round in which Jandiroba's opponents do their best striking.

Strike targeting

Virna

Head
81%
Body
16%
Legs
3%

Tatiana

Head
51%
Body
30%
Legs
19%

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

VirnaTatiana
77%Distance29%
14%Clinch16%
9%Ground55%

Share of significant strikes landed at distance, in the clinch and on the ground across each fighter's UFC rounds, weighted by strike volume.

04

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much
Open SpaceTatiana owns it

60% accuracy (1st of 30) against 41%, though Jandiroba's 56% defence is the better number

Pocket / ExchangesTatiana owns it

1.63 absorbed per minute against 2.86 — every Jandiroba loss came when she was out-landed

Clinch / EntriesTatiana owns it

4.52 takedowns per fifteen and 16 of 28 first-round attempts against 73% takedown defence

GroundEven

161 seconds of control per round against 125, and 1.39 submission attempts per fifteen against 0.66

Path to Victory

Virna Jandiroba

Survive the first-round takedown chains, get on top herself by the middle of the fight, and attack every exposed arm and neck in the scrambles — the route that finished Amanda Lemos after four submission attempts.

Why they win
01
Never finished in twenty-seven fights

All four losses are decisions. Suarez's six submission wins came against opponents who could be broken; Jandiroba has been in deep water with Dern twice and never tapped.

02
Takedown defence 73% against 57%

Nine takedowns conceded on thirty-three attempts across thirteen UFC fights. Suarez has been taken down three times on seven attempts — twice by Loopy Godinez in April.

03
Submission rate twice Suarez's

1.39 attempts per fifteen minutes, 4th of 30, and fourteen career submissions across rear-naked chokes, armbars and triangles. The Lemos armbar came after four attempts in under ten minutes.

04
She is a top player too

125 seconds of control per round, including nearly ten minutes on top of Yan Xiaonan and nine minutes on top of Mackenzie Dern. Suarez will not simply be allowed to ride.

05
Striking defence 56% against 44%

Suarez's 44% is 29th of 30 in the division. In the standing minutes, Jandiroba is harder to hit.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Frame and underhook on every entry

    Suarez's first-round takedowns land 57% of the time. Make the first five minutes a clinch fight rather than a ride.

  2. 2
    Threaten from the bottom immediately

    Arm attacks and guard work force Suarez to posture rather than advance — the sequence that produced four attempts and a finish against Lemos.

  3. 3
    Get on top in the second

    Her own control holds at 130 seconds through two rounds. A reversal or a counter-takedown flips the scoring.

  4. 4
    Stay busy standing

    Every loss came when she was out-landed. She does not need to win the striking, only to keep it close.

  5. 5
    Make the third round hers

    Suarez's third-round takedowns fall to 4 of 17. If the fight is level after ten minutes, Jandiroba's deep-water grappling is the better bet.

Path to Victory

Tatiana Suarez

Chain takedowns in the opening round, ride the fence and the back, and bank rounds on control — 161 seconds a round of it — while waiting for the neck to open.

Why they win
01
Control from the first bell

202 seconds of first-round control and 16 of 28 first-round takedowns — more than three minutes of an average opening round spent on top.

02
The division's most accurate striker

60% significant-strike accuracy, 1st of 30, and 1.63 absorbed per minute, 2nd. Jandiroba's losses all came when she was out-landed.

03
Takedown volume

4.52 per fifteen minutes, 2nd in the division, against a grappler whose own offense depends on being the one on top.

04
Every length measurement

Two inches of height, reach and leg reach, from southpaw, against a 5'3" opponent.

05
Current form

A rear-naked choke of Loopy Godinez in April and nine minutes on top of Amanda Lemos — two opponents Jandiroba beat more slowly.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Chain takedowns early

    16 of 28 first-round attempts land. Get the first one inside the opening minute and ride the fence.

  2. 2
    Control before submission

    Posture and pressure rather than hunting — Jandiroba's attacks come from scrambles and from underneath.

  3. 3
    Take the back on escapes

    The Godinez finish came from the back. A grappler turning to stand is the opening.

  4. 4
    Win the standing exchanges

    60% accuracy against 41%. When the fight is up, the jab and short combinations score.

  5. 5
    Protect the arms in transitions

    Lemos was armbarred in the second round. No lazy passes and no reaching when the fight is in a scramble.

Danger Zone

How Virna Jandiroba loses

  • Suarez lands the first double inside a minute, controls three minutes of every round and the scramble never comes — 30-27 on control alone.

  • The Dern pattern repeats: she wins some grappling exchanges but loses every standing minute to a far more accurate striker, and the cards follow the strike count.

  • She turns to escape a ride and gives up the back — the rear-naked choke that finished Loopy Godinez in the second round.

Danger Zone

How Tatiana Suarez loses

  • The Zhang pattern repeats: her entries are stuffed, she spends minutes underneath, and she has little to offer standing once the takedowns stop.

  • She shoots and lands in a scramble with a fourteen-submission grappler — an armbar or a choke off her own entry, the way Lemos went.

  • Jandiroba's takedown defence holds and the third round becomes a grappling match fought with Jandiroba on top.

The fight's central axis

Who Gets on Top First

Both women build their wins on control, and both have lost when someone else controlled the fight or out-struck them. Suarez controls 161 seconds of an average round and 202 of an average first round; Jandiroba controls 125 and never drops below two minutes through three rounds. The first successful takedown does double duty: it banks the round and it takes away the other woman's best position.

161 sec
Suarez's control per round, against Jandiroba's 125
Control without striking is not enough

The Dern Lesson

In the October 2025 title fight Jandiroba landed nine takedowns and controlled Mackenzie Dern for more than nine minutes — and lost a unanimous decision because Dern out-landed her 118 to 106. Her 2020 loss to Dern, her loss to Amanda Ribas and her debut loss to Carla Esparza all came with fewer strikes landed than her opponent. Suarez is the most accurate striker in the division; if the fight splits into grappling exchanges and standing exchanges, the standing ones go to the favourite.

118-106
Dern's significant-strike edge in the 2025 title fight
Lemos, Godinez and Esparza

The Shared Opponents

Jandiroba armbarred Amanda Lemos and out-controlled Loopy Godinez; Suarez out-controlled Lemos and choked Godinez. Suarez also stopped Carla Esparza in 2018, seven months before Esparza beat Jandiroba. The pattern favours Suarez without being lopsided — each woman beat both current opponents, and each finished one of them.

Why half the outcomes are decisions

Neither Has Been Stopped

Twenty-seven fights for Jandiroba and thirteen for Suarez without a stoppage loss. The model still gives submissions 47 of 100 outcomes because both women hunt them, but it keeps the decision paths heavy for the same reason: neither has shown a way to be finished.

0
stoppage losses between them in forty professional fights
Where the underdog's window opens

Third-Round Tells

Suarez lands 30 of 52 takedown attempts in first and second rounds and only 4 of 17 in thirds. Jandiroba's control barely moves late, 120 seconds in third rounds. The catch is that her opponents also do their best striking against her in third rounds, 20.2 significant strikes on average — so the late window is real, but it has to be won on the mat.

4 of 17
Suarez's third-round takedowns

The Five-Round Clock

Virna Jandiroba danger windowTatiana Suarez danger windowNeutral / contested
R1 · 0:00–5:00Suarez's control round

Her best five minutes on every number: 202 seconds of control, 16 of 28 takedowns and three of her eight career finishes. Jandiroba's takedown defence is freshest here and her own first-round control averages 130 seconds, so the first exchange against the fence decides the round.

Critical Insight
The favourite's equity is front-loaded: control, takedowns and finishes all peak in the first ten minutes. The underdog's equity is flatter — she finishes early too, but her control survives into the third round while Suarez's takedowns fade. If Suarez banks the first round from the top, the fight looks like her wins over Lemos and Godinez; if Jandiroba reaches the third round level, it looks like her decisions over Yan and Ricci.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

05

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things
1

This is two top-position fighters meeting, and the numbers say Suarez gets on top faster: more than three minutes of control in an average first round, and the most accurate hands in the division when the fight is standing.

2

Jandiroba has never been finished, defends takedowns better and hunts submissions twice as often. Her risk is not the mat — it is losing the standing minutes, as she did to Mackenzie Dern despite winning the grappling.

3

Model: Tatiana Suarez 62% / Virna Jandiroba 38%, conviction 5/10. Suarez's decision path is the most likely single outcome; Jandiroba's best path is a submission.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Jandiroba Submission — 25%Jandiroba Decision — 12%Jandiroba KO/TKO — 1%Suarez Decision — 35%Suarez Submission — 22%Suarez KO/TKO — 5%

Each square = 1 model percentage point. Virna Jandiroba gold · Tatiana Suarez orange · color opacity: 100% = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

The first takedown

Suarez lands 16 of 28 first-round attempts and averages 202 seconds of first-round control; Jandiroba defends 73% of takedowns. The fight's scoring and its finishing positions both flow from who wins the first exchange at the fence.

Control against control

161 seconds a round against 125. Both women are top players, and the one underneath is the one exposed — Suarez to Jandiroba's arm attacks in scrambles, Jandiroba to Suarez's back takes.

The standing minutes

Suarez is the most accurate striker in the division at 60% and absorbs the second-fewest strikes; Jandiroba lands 2.27 a minute, 29th of 30, and every one of her four losses came when she was out-landed.

Submission equity

Fourteen career submissions and 1.39 attempts per fifteen for Jandiroba, six and 0.66 for Suarez. It is why Jandiroba's largest path is a submission and why the model splits 47 outcomes between the two submission buckets.

Durability

Neither woman has been stopped in forty combined professional fights, which keeps 47 of 100 outcomes on the scorecards.

Fight Scripts

0%
of simulations

Top Position, Fifteen Minutes

Suarez takes the first round against the fence, rides through the second and holds enough of the third to take the cards — the way she rode Amanda Lemos for more than nine minutes.

Scripted outcomes for Virna Jandiroba vs Tatiana Suarez — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Virna Jandiroba win probability
0%
12%
25%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • One point. A single career knockout, and that one a doctor's stoppage; strikes are not her route.

  • Twelve points. Requires her takedown defence to hold and her own top game to win the later rounds — the Yan and Ricci template, without being out-landed badly.

  • Twenty-five points and her largest path: fourteen career submissions, 1.39 attempts per fifteen minutes, and a Lemos armbar that came from exactly the kind of scramble Suarez's entries create.

Tatiana Suarez win probability
0%
5%
35%
22%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Five points. Two career stoppages by strikes, the last in 2018; ground strikes from top position are the only realistic route.

  • Thirty-five points and the most likely single outcome: control from the first bell, the division's most accurate striking in the standing minutes, and an opponent who has never been finished.

  • Twenty-two points. The Godinez back take and the De La Rosa and Andrade guillotines, against an opponent who has survived every submission attempt in twenty-seven fights.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round
R1
Tatiana
R2
Even
R3
Tatiana
29-28 Suarez
Control in the first and third with a competitive second
The most likely card if it goes the distance
30-27 Suarez
Three rounds of top position
Live if the first-round takedowns land cleanly
29-28 Jandiroba
Takedown defence holds and she wins the third on top
Her realistic decision path

Model and price

Virna Jandiroba

Quote age unknown
Model win probability
38%
Fair odds
+163
Reference quote
+153 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds
2.63
Estimated EV
-3.9%
Edge vs no-vig market
-0.1 pp

Tatiana Suarez

Quote age unknown
Model win probability
62%
Fair odds
-163
Reference quote
-180 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds
1.61
Estimated EV
-3.6%
Edge vs no-vig market
+0.1 pp

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash marks a price without a same-book pair to compare.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Quotes listed with a date but no time are treated as undated.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Virna Jandiroba

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 2.64 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Tatiana Suarez

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 1.62 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

Pass the moneyline at the November 1 snapshot: Suarez −180 is shorter than the model's −163 fair line, while Jandiroba +153 is below the +163 requirement. Suarez by decision is fair +186 and Jandiroba by submission +300; compare those only with live prop quotes.

Conviction
0
5/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

A real lean to the wrestler who gets on top faster and strikes more cleanly, held to five because Jandiroba has never been finished, defends takedowns better, and owns fourteen career submissions. Lean: Tatiana Suarez.

What backs the lean

  • 202 seconds of first-round control and 16 of 28 first-round takedowns — the fight's first exchange favours her.

  • The division's most accurate striker (60%) against an opponent whose four losses all came when she was out-landed.

  • A rear-naked choke of Loopy Godinez and nine minutes on top of Amanda Lemos in her last two fights.

  • Two inches of height, reach and leg reach from southpaw.

What limits it

  • Jandiroba's 73% takedown defence against Suarez's 57%.

  • Fourteen career submissions and a submission rate more than double Suarez's.

  • Twenty-seven fights without a stoppage loss.

  • Suarez's third-round takedowns fall to 4 of 17, and Zhang Weili showed what she looks like when the wrestling stops landing.

Final Assessment

In roughly 62 of 100 simulations, Tatiana Suarez wins the fight the way she won her last two: first-round takedowns against the fence, long stretches of control, and the cleanest striking in the division whenever the fight is standing. Most often that is a decision (35%); sometimes Jandiroba turns to escape a ride and gives up the back or the neck (22%); rarely the top position produces a stoppage by strikes (5%).

In the other 38, Virna Jandiroba makes the scrambles count. Her takedown defence holds in the opening round, the fight becomes a grappling exchange rather than a ride, and one of the arm or neck attacks that produced fourteen career submissions lands (25%); or she reaches the third round level and wins it on top, the way she beat Yan Xiaonan and Tabatha Ricci (12%).

The data gives Suarez the first-round control, the takedown volume and the most accurate hands at 115 pounds; it gives Jandiroba the takedown defence, the submission threat and a record of never being stopped. On November 7 we take Tatiana Suarez, most likely on the scorecards, at five out of ten.

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