UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 — Las Vegas

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 Poster - UFC Fight Analytics
Saturday, July 11, 2026
Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
T-Mobile Arena
completed14 Fights🏆 0 Title Fights
Main Card: Paramount+
Prelims: Paramount+
Start Time: 5:00 PM ET
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Times are estimated; Early Prelims ~2h, Prelims ~2h, Main Card ~2h. Subject to change.
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UFC 329 Las Vegas: Full Card Analytics & Predictions

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 — T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas — July 11, 2026

The UFC returns to Las Vegas with a blockbuster welterweight headliner: Conor McGregor (22-6) meets former featherweight champion Max Holloway (27-9) in a five-round rematch years in the making. McGregor still carries fight-ending power and sharp timing; Holloway brings elite cardio, volume, and durability that has aged gracefully into fresh weight classes.

The Paramount+ card stacks meaningful names — Benoit Saint-Denis vs. Paddy Pimblett, Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista, Olympic gold medalist Gable Steveson vs. Elisha Ellison, and former title challenger Brandon Royval vs. Lone'er Kavanagh. AI-powered analytics cover every bout with best available odds and full card breakdowns.

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What is UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2?

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 is an MMA event on July 11, 2026, at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The five-round welterweight main event pits Conor McGregor (22-6) against Max Holloway (27-9) — a stylistic clash between explosive finishing threat and high-output durability. The card airs on Paramount+ with a US-friendly evening window (main card listed at 5:00 PM ET). Highlights include Saint-Denis vs. Pimblett, Sandhagen vs. Bautista, Steveson vs. Ellison, and Royval vs. Kavanagh, plus deep prelims featuring veterans like Whittaker and Garbrandt.

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What are the predictions for Conor McGregor vs. Max Holloway?

McGregor vs. Holloway is a premium main-event puzzle: McGregor can flip a fight in seconds with timing and power, while Holloway's pace, conditioning, and layered boxing volume tend to snowball as rounds accumulate. At welterweight, physicality and shot selection matter as much as cardio — expect swing rounds early with massive variance if McGregor lands clean. Every fight on the card below includes AI-generated win probabilities, best available odds, and detailed breakdowns to support informed analysis.

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How to watch UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 and what time does it start?

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 takes place Saturday, July 11, 2026. Main card at 5:00 PM ET (2:00 PM PT / 10:00 PM BST) on Paramount+. Prelims start roughly two hours earlier, also on Paramount+. T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas hosts the action — a marquee Vegas night card with a stacked lineup top-to-bottom.

Main Event — Welterweight

McGregor vs. Holloway

Conor McGregor (22-6) runs it back with Max Holloway (27-9) at 170 pounds — power and timing against marathon pace and iron chin. Early volatility meets championship-round endurance in a true Vegas headliner.

Co-Main — Lightweight

Saint-Denis vs. Pimblett

Benoit Saint-Denis (17-3) brings relentless pressure and grappling malice; Paddy Pimblett (23-4) counters with slick scrambles and submission hunting. A stylistic firefight at 155 with real divisional stakes.

Undercard Spotlight

Sandhagen vs. Bautista & Royval vs. Kavanagh

Cory Sandhagen (18-6) vs. Mario Bautista (17-3) showcases technical range vs. athletic wrestling entries at bantamweight. Brandon Royval (17-9) vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (10-1) pairs chaotic creativity against a rising flyweight contender.

📊Analysis Reliability Framework

Our analytical model considers UFC experience as one of several factors for optimal predictions. While we can analyze any fight, fighters with 5+ UFC bouts provide more comprehensive data for our statistical modeling. This doesn't diminish the quality of our analysis for newer fighters - it's simply one criterion we factor into our confidence assessments.

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High Risk (**)

<3 UFC Bouts

Limited UFC data available. Analysis relies more heavily on external sources and pre-UFC performance patterns.

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Moderate Risk (*)

3-4 UFC Bouts

Meaningful UFC sample size with good analytical foundation. Reliable insights with solid confidence levels.

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Optimal Data

5+ UFC Bouts

Comprehensive statistical foundation enabling highest confidence analysis and predictive accuracy.

Note: All fights receive thorough analysis regardless of UFC experience levels. This framework simply helps calibrate confidence in our predictions.

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 Fights, Analytics & Predictions

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We display the best available odds for each fighter to maximize value. Preference is given to BetOnline when available; otherwise, we select the highest‑value line and show the sportsbook and implied probability (I.P %).

🏆 Main eventEstablished UFC sample (5+ bouts each)
Conor McGregor

Conor McGregor

22-6-0

Welterweight
5 Rounds

Model estimate

33%VS67%

Market Odds

……

Model win probability vs reference market odds

Max Holloway

Max Holloway

27-9-0

Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Uncertainty & price details

Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

View fight preview
⭐ Co-MainEstablished UFC sample (5+ bouts each)
Benoit Saint-Denis

Benoit Saint-Denis

17-3-0

Lightweight
3 Rounds

Model estimate

58%VS42%

Market Odds

……

Model win probability vs reference market odds

Paddy Pimblett

Paddy Pimblett

23-4-0

Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Uncertainty & price details

Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

View fight preview
Established UFC sample (5+ bouts each)
Cory Sandhagen

Cory Sandhagen

18-6-0

Bantamweight
3 Rounds

Model estimate

56%VS44%

Market Odds

……

Model win probability vs reference market odds

Mario Bautista

Mario Bautista

17-3-0

Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Uncertainty & price details

Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

View fight preview
Limited UFC sample (<3 bouts)
Gable Steveson

Gable Steveson

3-0-0

Heavyweight
3 Rounds

Model estimate

88%VS12%

Market Odds

……

Model win probability vs reference market odds

Elisha Ellison

Elisha Ellison

5-2-0

Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Uncertainty & price details

Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

View fight preview
Developing UFC sample (3–4 bouts)
Brandon Royval

Brandon Royval

17-9-0

Flyweight
3 Rounds

Model estimate

58%VS42%

Market Odds

……

Model win probability vs reference market odds

Lone'er Kavanagh

Lone'er Kavanagh

10-1-0

Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Uncertainty & price details

Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

View fight preview
Limited UFC sample (<3 bouts)
Damian Pinas

Damian Pinas

9-1-0

Middleweight
3 Rounds

Model estimate

42%VS58%

Market Odds

……

Model win probability vs reference market odds

César Almeida

César Almeida

7-2-0

Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Uncertainty & price details

Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

View fight preview
Limited UFC sample (<3 bouts)
Ryan Gandra

Ryan Gandra

9-1-0

Middleweight
3 Rounds

Model estimate

44%VS56%

Market Odds

……

Model win probability vs reference market odds

Zach Reese

Zach Reese

10-3-0

Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Uncertainty & price details

Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

View fight preview
Established UFC sample (5+ bouts each)
Cody Durden

Cody Durden

18-10-1

Flyweight
3 Rounds

Model estimate

56%VS44%

Market Odds

……

Model win probability vs reference market odds

Alessandro Costa

Alessandro Costa

“Nono”

16-5-0

Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Uncertainty & price details

Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

View fight preview
Established UFC sample (5+ bouts each)
Cody Garbrandt

Cody Garbrandt

15-7-0

Bantamweight
3 Rounds

Model estimate

42%VS58%

Market Odds

……

Model win probability vs reference market odds

Adrian Yanez

Adrian Yanez

17-6-1

Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Uncertainty & price details

Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

View fight preview
Developing UFC sample (3–4 bouts)
Kai Kamaka III

Kai Kamaka III

18-7-1

Featherweight
3 Rounds

Model estimate

37%VS63%

Market Odds

……

Model win probability vs reference market odds

Luke Riley

Luke Riley

13-0-0

Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Uncertainty & price details

Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

View fight preview
Established UFC sample (5+ bouts each)
Robert Whittaker

Robert Whittaker

26-9-0

Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds

Model estimate

58%VS42%

Market Odds

……

Model win probability vs reference market odds

Nikita Krylov

Nikita Krylov

31-11-0

Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Uncertainty & price details

Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

View fight preview
Established UFC sample (5+ bouts each)
Tracy Cortez

Tracy Cortez

12-3-0

Flyweight
3 Rounds

Model estimate

53%VS47%

Market Odds

……

Model win probability vs reference market odds

Cong Wang

Cong Wang

9-1-0

Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Uncertainty & price details

Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

View fight preview
Established UFC sample (5+ bouts each)
King Green

King Green

35-17-1

Lightweight
3 Rounds

Model estimate

45%VS55%

Market Odds

……

Model win probability vs reference market odds

Terrance McKinney

Terrance McKinney

18-8-0

Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Uncertainty & price details

Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

View fight preview
Established UFC sample (5+ bouts each)
Farid Basharat

Farid Basharat

15-0-0

Bantamweight
3 Rounds

Model estimate

62%VS38%

Market Odds

……

Model win probability vs reference market odds

Ethyn Ewing

Ethyn Ewing

“The Professor Finesser”

10-2-0

Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Uncertainty & price details

Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

View fight preview

Model Probabilities vs Market Odds Summary

FightFighter AModel Prob AMarket Odds AImplied Prob AFighter BModel Prob BMarket Odds BImplied Prob BValue
McGregor vs Holloway🟢Conor McGregor33%N/A—Max Holloway67%N/A—
Holloway +67.0%Early KO power vs volume supremacy
Saint-Denis vs Pimblett🟢Benoit Saint-Denis58%N/A—Paddy Pimblett42%N/A—
Saint-Denis +58.0%Elite grappling vs iron chin
Sandhagen vs Bautista🟢Cory Sandhagen56%N/A—Mario Bautista44%N/A—
Sandhagen +56.0%Championship resume & chin edge over coin-flip composites
Royval vs Kavanagh🟡Brandon Royval58%N/A—Lone'er Kavanagh42%N/A—
Royval +58.0%Volume, scrambles & sub threat vs unproven step-up
Durden vs Costa🟢Cody Durden56%N/A—Alessandro Costa44%N/A—
Durden +56.0%Takedown volume & late grind vs early KO power
Garbrandt vs Yanez🟢Cody Garbrandt42%N/A—Adrian Yanez58%N/A—
Yanez +58.0%Yanez youth, reach & volume vs fading one-shot power
III vs Riley🟡Kai Kamaka III37%N/A—Luke Riley63%N/A—
Riley +63.0%Riley's power & finishing vs control-decision path
Whittaker vs Krylov🟢Robert Whittaker58%N/A—Nikita Krylov42%N/A—
Whittaker +58.0%Elite cardio, TDD & strength-of-schedule vs LHW size
Cortez vs Wang🟢Tracy Cortez53%N/A—Cong Wang47%N/A—
Cortez +53.0%Clinch/ground grind & chin vs elite distance striking
Green vs McKinney🟢King Green45%N/A—Terrance McKinney55%N/A—
McKinney +55.0%McKinney early-finish variance vs Green's late durability
Basharat vs Ewing🟢Farid Basharat62%N/A—Ethyn Ewing38%N/A—
Basharat +62.0%Undefeated control grappler vs short-notice unknown

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