King Green vs Terrance McKinney
Lightweight Bout • UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
Saturday, July 11, 2026 • Lightweight • 3 Rounds
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King Green
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Terrance McKinney
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - King Green
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-13 | Lance Gibson Jr. | W | Decision (Split) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-03-08 | Mauricio Ruffy | L | KO/TKO (Wheel Kick) (R1, 2:07) |
| 2024-07-27 | Paddy Pimblett | L | Submission (Triangle) (R1, 3:22) |
| 2024-04-13 | Jim Miller | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2023-12-02 | Jalin Turner | L | KO/TKO (Punches) (R1, 2:49) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Terrance McKinney
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-06 | Chris Duncan | L | Submission (Anaconda) (R1, 2:30) |
| 2025-06-28 | Viacheslav Borshchev | W | Submission (Guillotine) (R1, 0:55) |
| 2025-02-01 | Damir Hadzovic | W | KO/TKO (Punches) (R1, 2:01) |
| 2024-05-11 | Esteban Ribovics | L | KO/TKO (Head Kick) (R1, 0:37) |
| 2023-10-14 | Brendon Marotte | W | KO/TKO (Knee) (R1, 0:20) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (58 vs 70) and Grappling Composite (46 vs 78). McKinney holds a wide technical edge on paper — note Green's figures are analyst estimates, as he has no computed metrics in the database.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 King Green Key Advantages
This is the single largest factor in Green's favor and the mirror image of McKinney's biggest strength. McKinney's database has no R3 data whatsoever, his only two tracked second rounds were both losses, and his output collapses from 17.3 significant strikes in R1 to 4.0 in R2. Green, by contrast, is one of the most reliably-conditioned three-round fighters of the modern era — a career built on full fifteen-minute decisions (Gibson Jr., Miller, Guida, Koch). If Green survives the opening five minutes, the statistical floor of the fight drops out from under McKinney, whose average fight lasts just 2:57.
Counter-intuitively, the full-fight Overall Rating actually favors Green (~62 vs ~58) on the strength of his enormous cardio edge. Over fifteen technical minutes, his volume, timing, defense (even diminished) and conditioning out-point a fading McKinney who throws only 3.9 strikes per minute and head-hunts almost exclusively (86.7% of R1 strikes to the head, zero leg game). A patient, survive-and-pile-up game plan is a legitimate, model-supported path — Green's most recent fight is a clean three-round decision win over Lance Gibson Jr., proof the 39-year-old can still execute a full game plan and win.
McKinney is also extremely finishable. His rank-45 striking defense, "Average" chin tier, and 0.75 KD-exchange ratio (he is knocked down more often than he knocks others down) mean Green's sharp counter-boxing is genuinely live. Green owns first-round KO power of his own — Iaquinta, Grant Dawson in 33 seconds, James Krause — and McKinney was head-kick KO'd by Ribovics in 37 seconds and just submitted by Duncan. The wild man can be caught coming in, and Green is a far craftier counter-puncher than Marotte or Breeden.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
The single highest-probability event in this fight is McKinney landing clean early on a 39-year-old chin that no longer reliably absorbs that profile. Green's last three losses were all first-round finishes to dynamic strikers — a Ruffy wheel-kick KO, a Pimblett triangle, a Turner ground-and-pound — and McKinney's rank-2 knockdown average and rank-5 accuracy make him the most explosive early finisher of that exact profile Green could face. If the wheel-kick/Turner/Ruffy pattern repeats, Green is finished inside two minutes.
The striking blitz may stall, but McKinney's overlooked grappling is a second elite kill-path. His rank-9 takedown rate, rank-7 submission rate, and three UFC submission wins (a guillotine from mount, two rear-naked chokes) give him a clinch-entry, takedown and first-round choke option that Green is poorly equipped to stop — Green was triangled by Pimblett in the first round and ground-and-pounded by Turner. A more aggressive, more positionally violent grappler than Paddy reprising that R1 triangle is a real, recurring danger.
📋 Likely Gameplan
That is the whole fight. Tight defense, no flat-footed exchanges, circle off the cage, and deny both the clinch and the level change. Every second past the 5:00 mark is a second McKinney has never lived in. Green must make him miss and make him pay — countering the over-committed entries with the sharp boxing that KO'd Iaquinta and Dawson, because the threat of the counter alone will make a rank-45-defense McKinney hesitate and bleed his explosive urgency.
Once R2 opens and McKinney's output craters, Green should raise the pace: pile on volume, target the body to compound the fatigue, and turn the screws into R3 — the round where his two career submissions (both late off accumulated pressure) and his entire decision base live. He must stuff the takedown, refuse the choke, stay off his back so the Pimblett triangle cannot repeat, and trust the conditioning and IQ rather than trying to out-explode the explosive man.
🚀 Terrance McKinney Key Advantages
McKinney's rank-2 knockdown average (1.39), rank-5 accuracy (56%), division-best damage ratio (2.29, rank 1/57) and 2:57 average fight time describe a fighter who ends nights before they start. Every single one of his eight UFC wins came in the first round — Frevola in 7 seconds, Marotte in 20, Borshchev by guillotine in 55. He is matched against a 39-year-old whose last three losses were all first-round finishes by dynamic strikers. The clash of his finishing window (R1) with Green's most vulnerable window (R1) is the fight in one sentence.
Far better than his "wild striker" reputation suggests, and the most underrated part of this matchup. McKinney's rank-9 takedown rate (3.23/15), rank-7 submission rate (1.39/15), 79.2% ground accuracy and three UFC submission wins give him a statistically elite Plan B that is invisible if you only watch the highlight-reel KOs. His sub-archetype is "Clinch-Heavy Nak Muay," and the knee-to-head finish of Marotte and back-control KO of Hadzovic show he transitions to dominant positions violently and fast. If he can't blast Green out, he can clinch-enter, take him down, and hunt a first-round choke against a boxer who can't be out-struck cleanly.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
McKinney fails to finish in R1, the adrenaline dump hits, and his documented second-round collapse (4.0 sig strikes at 20% accuracy) plays out exactly as it did against Sadykhov and Bonfim — except this time against a fresh, surging Green who pours on volume. The fight reaches a third round McKinney has literally never seen, he has nothing left, and Green either submits him off accumulated pressure (his R3 specialty) or coasts a wide decision against a man with zero deep-water reps and no body or leg game to fall back on.
Green slips the opening blitz and counters the over-committed entry. McKinney's rank-45 striking defense, "Average" chin and 0-for-4 record after being knocked down mean one clean Green counter — the Iaquinta/Dawson finishing ability — can turn his own aggression into a finish. He was head-kicked into oblivion by Ribovics in 37 seconds doing exactly this. A wild, telegraphed blitz against a craftier counter-puncher is the fastest way for McKinney to lose.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Every UFC win, every percentage, every metric points to closing inside five minutes. McKinney must attack from the opening bell — pressure immediately, force Green to defend before he reads the range, and unload the rank-2 power on the aging chin. There is no Plan C for a fighter who has never won past R1 and never seen R3; the entire night must be invested in a first-round finish, because pacing for a decision is a losing strategy given his 2:57 average and 42/100 cardio score.
McKinney should not be a one-dimensional head-hunter Green can time. Mixing clinch entries, knees (tech-rate 0.67) and level changes (rank-9 TD rate) lets him take Green down and hunt the first-round choke (rank-7 sub rate) — the Plan B that beats a boxer who can't be out-struck cleanly. He must deny Green a clean read by varying entries, never giving him a stationary target, while respecting the counter: explosive but controlled, landing first but landing smart, so his own rank-45 defense and chin don't get him countered.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
⏳The Temporal Asymmetry
On paper these two men are physically interchangeable — both roughly 5'10" with roughly a 73-inch reach, same division, same country. There is no size, length or frame edge to exploit. The defining variable is not on the tape measure: King Green is 39 years old, Terrance McKinney is 30. The asymmetry is entirely temporal — a fighter in his prime versus a fighter entering his fortieth year in documented decline, and a man whose clock runs out at 2:57 versus a man whose clock barely starts before 5:00. Where most fights are decided by who is bigger or longer, this one is decided by when: when McKinney's finishing window opens versus when Green's deep water arrives.
🎯Technical Breakdown
On pure technical capability McKinney holds a wide edge — Technical Score 73.8 vs Green's estimated ~52 — built on the division's best damage ratio (rank 1/57), rank-2 knockdown power, rank-5 accuracy (56%), and an underrated grappling game (rank-9 takedowns, rank-7 submissions). But two figures temper everything: his rank-45 striking defense and his 0.75 KD-exchange ratio — he is knocked down more than he knocks down, on an "Average" chin. He is the most dangerous and one of the most finishable men in the matchup. Green's composites are analyst estimates (he has no computed metrics in the database), but his profile is clear: a durable-but-aging volume boxer whose elite deep-water cardio is the one dimension McKinney has no answer to.
🧩Key Battle Areas
The whole fight reduces to how many exchanges it contains. McKinney wins the first exchange more often; Green wins the hundredth. If it is a handful (McKinney's world), his rank-2 power and rank-5 accuracy decide it. If it is hundreds (Green's world), Green's superior craft and McKinney's rank-45 defense decide it. Three areas matter most: Green's chin survival under the opening blitz, McKinney's grappling kill-path (the Pimblett R1-triangle vulnerability, reprised by a more violent grappler), and the deep-water cliff — McKinney's output craters from 17.3 to 4.0 significant strikes between R1 and R2, and he has never been tracked into a third round at all. Green's task is simply to convert this dynamic finisher into a "let me box" fight by surviving the first five minutes.
🏁Final Prediction
The distribution is strikingly bimodal. McKinney's most likely outcome is KO/TKO (32%) — his rank-2 power and rank-5 accuracy against a chin already first-round-finished by Ruffy, Turner and Pimblett — with an underrated submission lane (14%) off his elite takedown and choke game. The co-favorite single outcome, though, is King Green by decision (31%): survive the storm, exploit the R2 cliff and never-seen R3, and out-box a fading opponent over fifteen minutes. Green also carries live counter KO equity (9%) against McKinney's rank-45 defense, plus a modest late-submission path (5%). McKinney's decision path is just 9% — he has never won one. The slight overall lean is McKinney 55% / Green 45%: if the fight is short it is McKinney's, if it is long it is Green's, and the whole result hinges on a single coin flip in the first five minutes.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 40% | Fair: +150 — market overweights the early-KO narrative and ignores McKinney's R2 cliff & absent R3.
GOOD VALUE
Model: 32% | Fair: +213 — the single most likely outcome, priced roughly fair; rank-2 power on an eroded chin.
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 31% | Fair: +223 — Green's primary path and the co-favorite single outcome if he survives Round 1.
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overweights the highlight-reel KO – The market prices McKinney's violence but underprices his R2 output collapse and total absence of R3 reps.
- • Undervalues Green's cardio – His most-recent-fight decision win and elite deep-water gas tank make a full three-round fight more likely than priced.
- • Both men highly finishable – McKinney rank-45 defense + average chin; Green's eroded durability — the fight can end suddenly either way in Round 1.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - King Green
Primary path: survive R1, out-box a fading foe in deep water
Live counter power vs McKinney's rank-45 defense
Late R3 sub off accumulated pressure (his career pattern)
💥Outcome Distribution - Terrance McKinney
Most likely outcome: rank-2 power on an eroded chin
Underrated path: rank-9 TDs, rank-7 sub rate, R1 choke
Low by design — he has never won a decision
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Terrance McKinney
- • First 5 minutes: Highest finishing equity — rank-2 power on an aging chin.
- • Grappling Plan B: Clinch entry, level change, hunt the R1 choke.
- • Burn the bridges: All-in on Round 1; no pacing for a decision he can't win.
🎯Progressive Dominance - King Green
- • Survive Round 1: Tight defense, deny the clinch and the level change.
- • Deep water: From R2 on, McKinney's output craters — raise the pace and pile on volume.
- • Round 3 is home: Body work, late subs, and the decision base McKinney has never reached.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
Deliberately low — a genuine pick'em with a thin lean and an open data gap on King Green
✅Supporting Factors
- • Better technical fighter (73.8 vs ~52) — damage ratio rank 1/57
- • Green's last 3 losses were all R1 finishes to dynamic strikers
- • Nine-year age gap; Green's chin eroded at 39
- • Second finishing path: rank-9 TDs, rank-7 sub rate
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Composite model actually favors Green (~62 vs ~58)
- • King Green has NO computed DB metrics — half the read is estimate
- • McKinney never tracked past R2; both R2s were losses
- • Both men highly finishable — R1 can end either way
🏁Executive Summary
Across 100 simulations the fight splits into two nearly-equal stories. In roughly 55, Terrance McKinney's opening blitz reaches a 39-year-old chin before King Green's craft and cardio can come online — a clean head shot, a wheel-kick-style finish, or a clinch-entry-to-first-round-choke ends the night inside the only window McKinney has ever needed. His rank-2 power, rank-1 damage ratio, rank-9 takedowns and rank-7 submissions give him more first-round finishing tools than any fighter Green has faced, and Green has been first-round-finished three times in his last five outings against exactly this profile. In the other 45, Green does the one thing McKinney has never had to survive: he makes it to deep water, weathers the storm, watches the output cliff arrive in R2, and turns the back half into the conditioned, high-volume boxing clinic that built his career — or catches the reckless, rank-45-defense McKinney on the way in. Note that nearly half of Green's profile here is analyst estimate: he has no computed metrics in the database, which itself caps conviction.
Prediction: Terrance McKinney by an early KO/TKO is the single most likely outcome (32%), with King Green by decision the co-favorite single result (31%). The overall lean is McKinney 55% / Green 45% — a true pick'em with a thin edge. If the fight is short it is McKinney's; if it is long it is Green's. The entire result hinges on a single coin flip in the first five minutes: can King Green survive Terrance McKinney's opening storm?