Cody Garbrandt vs Adrian Yanez
Bantamweight Bout • UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
Saturday, July 11, 2026 • T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas
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Cody Garbrandt
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Adrian Yanez
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Cody Garbrandt
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03 | Xiao Long | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-08-16 | Raoni Barcelos | L | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-04-13 | Deiveson Figueiredo | L | Submission (RNC) (R2, 4:02) |
| 2023-12-16 | Brian Kelleher | W | KO/TKO (Punch) (R1, 3:42) |
| 2023-03-04 | Trevin Jones | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Adrian Yanez
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03 | Ricky Simon | D | Draw (Majority) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-12-14 | Daniel Marcos | L | Decision (Split) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-05-18 | Vinicius Salvador | W | KO/TKO (Punches) (R1, 2:47) |
| 2023-10-28 | Jonathan Martinez | L | KO/TKO (Leg Kicks) (R2, 2:26) |
| 2023-04-08 | Rob Font | L | KO/TKO (Punch) (R1, 2:57) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (42.8 vs 48.6) and Grappling Composite (46.6 vs 30.1). Garbrandt's clinch-wrestling and sprawl lift his grappling number, while Yanez's elite volume edges the striking — Garbrandt grades 44.7 to Yanez's 39.4 on the composite, before chin, reach and age adjustments.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Cody Garbrandt Key Advantages
Garbrandt's knockdown power (KD rank 5/52, 1.03 avg) and a highlight reel of "punch at distance" KOs — Mizugaki in 0:48, Almeida, Kelleher — mean he is always one counter from ending the night. Yanez is the ideal target: rank 47/52 in strike absorption and an "Average" chin already cracked clean by Rob Font. The check-hook-over-the-top that dethroned Dominick Cruz is live every time Yanez steps into range.
A Team Alpha Male product, Garbrandt owns 20 career clinch takedowns (27.8% clinch TD accuracy) and 69.3% clinch striking accuracy — a legitimate, if under-used, grappling tool. Yanez has essentially never defended a committed wrestler (zero career takedown offense, TDD untested under real pressure). If Garbrandt is losing the range war he can tie Yanez up, trip him, and either ground-and-pound or steal rounds in a position Yanez has no answers for. It is his smartest, lowest-variance path to a decision.
Garbrandt's striking defense (60%, rank 10/52) and absorption (3.64 SApM, rank ~20) are both clearly better than Yanez's. Outside the catastrophic clean-shot scenarios he is the harder man to hit and the more economical. Add a former-champion résumé — five championship rounds against Cruz, a full 25 minutes with Font — and a "Strong Finisher" third round (16.5 sig strikes, 47.1% accuracy), and the experience and late-round surge tilt his way on the sport's biggest nights.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
His 33% slow-start rate triggers, Yanez opens with volume and lands a clean combination inside the first two minutes, and the "Vulnerable" chin folds the way it did against Munhoz and Kara-France — an early KO loss before Garbrandt's counter game is dialed in.
The fight stays at range exactly as Yanez wants. The 4.5-inch reach deficit leaves Garbrandt eating jabs and 1-2s he cannot return at volume, and he drops a clear decision the way he lost to Barcelos and Font — or over-commits hunting the one-shot KO and is countered in a firefight he never needed to be in.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Garbrandt cannot win a range war he is 4.5 inches short for. He must cut the cage, get inside Yanez's length, and turn it into a pocket fight where his timing and power matter most — opening with the leg kicks (R1 leg 20.7%, his most-used technique) to slow Yanez's footwork, then loading the over-the-top counter as Yanez plants to throw.
The lowest-variance path is the clinch. Tie Yanez up, trip him, and exploit a man with zero wrestling answers; even unsuccessful entries break Yanez's rhythm and rob him of volume. Above all, counter the volume rather than chase it, and avoid the 33% slow start against an opponent who fires from the opening bell.
🚀 Adrian Yanez Key Advantages
Yanez throws 6.23 SLpM (rank 4/52) to Garbrandt's 2.88 (rank ~45) — more than double the output — and owns a 4.5-inch reach edge (70" vs 65.5"). If the bout stays a clean kickboxing match at range, Yanez fights at the end of his punches where Garbrandt is out-landed and reactive, winning the exchanges, banking rounds, and accumulating the damage that has cracked Garbrandt before.
Garbrandt's "Vulnerable" tier is the most exploitable trait in the matchup, and Yanez is the No. 2 power puncher in the division (1.54 KD avg). Every Garbrandt KO loss came from a clean strike and his recovery rate when hurt is 0%. Yanez doesn't need to grind — he needs one of his ~25 per-round attempts to land flush. Younger (31 vs 33), more active, a positive 1.46 damage ratio and a 0% slow start complete the case.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
His rank-47 absorption and habit of fighting in the pocket put him squarely in range of Garbrandt's best punch. One clean counter ends it — the Rob Font KO loss is the proof of concept, and Garbrandt hits at least as hard.
Garbrandt commits to the clinch and the trip; with no wrestling reps, Yanez is taken down, controlled and ground-and-pounded in a position he has no tools to escape — losing rounds he expected to win standing. A dip in his already-modest 42% accuracy into a sloppy brawl would only gift the harder-hitting man the clean exchanges.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Establish the jab and own the 4.5-inch reach edge — fight at the end of the punches, force Garbrandt to lunge in, and punish the entries. Simply maintaining pace (5.0/min vs 2.9/min) wins rounds on the cards and stacks the damage that breaks a vulnerable chin; a sustained body attack drains the counter-puncher's legs and pop.
Stay off the fence and use footwork and angles to keep the fight in the center, never letting Garbrandt initiate the body-lock trip. And don't brawl recklessly — the Font loss is the cautionary tale; Yanez gets hurt when he trades flush with elite power. Win with discipline and volume, not a shoot-out.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Range & Power Dynamics
The fight reduces to one geometric battle. Yanez (70" reach, 6.23 SLpM) wants distance; Garbrandt (65.5" reach, 2.88 SLpM, KD rank 5) needs the pocket. At range Yanez out-jabs, out-volumes and out-points Garbrandt while staying outside his primary counter window — a decision or a late TKO from accumulation. In the pocket, Garbrandt's timing and one-shot power dominate and Yanez's rank-47 absorption becomes fatal — a Garbrandt KO. Both defensive profiles are leaky enough that this fight lands clean for whoever wins the range battle.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Strip away the noise and two facts dominate. This is one of the highest combined-power matchups in the division — Yanez (KD rank 2) and Garbrandt (KD rank 5) are both elite knockout threats with exploitable durability. And the sustainable edge belongs to Yanez: 2.2x the volume, a positive 1.46 damage ratio versus Garbrandt's outstruck 0.89, the better KD exchange ratio (2.33:1 vs 1.57:1), and the better (if imperfect) chin. Garbrandt's counters are his elite one-shot power and a genuine clinch-wrestling fallback (20 career clinch takedowns) — the one path that lets him steal rounds rather than gamble for the finish.
🧩The Font Parallel
Rob Font — a rangy, high-volume bantamweight boxer — is the most instructive shared data point: he KO'd Yanez (clean head shot, R1) and out-pointed Garbrandt over five rounds. Yanez stylistically resembles Font, which is bad news for Garbrandt, who has already lost this exact archetype. But Yanez is not Font defensively — he gets hit far more (rank 47 absorption), which keeps Garbrandt's clean-counter opening alive in a way Font never offered. The film cuts both ways: Yanez's style beats Garbrandt, but his chin and defense are more fragile than the man who executed it.
🏁Final Prediction
We run 100 simulations and the recurring pattern is a knockout far more often than a trip to the judges, with the chin that breaks first deciding it. In ~58 of them Adrian Yanez's length and volume control the range — his clean shots crack the division's most vulnerable chin (34% KO) or his steady output banks the rounds (22% decision). In the other ~42, Cody Garbrandt does what former champions with one-shot power do: he times the over-the-top counter on a chin that has been knocked out before (28% KO) or leans on the clinch-wrestling Yanez can't answer to edge a decision (12%). Submissions are near-zero (2% each). The model leans Adrian Yanez at 58% — but No Love only needs to land once.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: 72% | Fair: -257
GOOD VALUE
Model: 66% | Fair: -194
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 28% | Fair: +257
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Two glass cannons – Market may underprice the combined finishing rate of two elite KD threats with exploitable chins.
- • Yanez's leaky defense – Rank-47 absorption keeps Garbrandt's puncher's chance live even when he's losing rounds.
- • The wrestling wildcard – Garbrandt's under-modeled clinch-wrestling raises his decision floor if the disciplined version shows up.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Cody Garbrandt
One-shot counter on a chin cracked before
Clinch-wrestling Plan B and a Strong Finisher R3
Token — no UFC submission profile
💥Outcome Distribution - Adrian Yanez
Elite volume and No. 2 power at a fragile target
Out-jab and out-volume over 15 minutes
Token — scramble / ground-and-pound only
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
🎯Path to Victory - Adrian Yanez
- • Range war: Jab and length keep it outside Garbrandt's counter window.
- • Volume: 5.0/min vs 2.9/min banks rounds on the cards.
- • Body work: Drain the counter-puncher's pop over three rounds.
⚡Path to Victory - Cody Garbrandt
- • Close the distance: Make it a phone-booth firefight.
- • Clinch Plan B: Trip a man with zero wrestling answers.
- • One clean counter: 28% KO equity on a fragile chin.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
A genuine but guarded lean — the underdog is one punch away at all times
✅Supporting Factors
- • 2.2x the striking volume (6.23 vs 2.88 SLpM)
- • 4.5-inch reach edge and 0% slow-start aggression
- • Positive 1.46 damage ratio vs Garbrandt's 0.89
- • Attacking the division's most vulnerable chin
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Composite math actually favors Garbrandt (57.4 vs 52.2)
- • Garbrandt's 28% KO equity vs rank-47 absorption
- • Under-modeled clinch-wrestling could steal rounds
- • Two glass cannons = maximum variance
🏁Executive Summary
Adrian Yanez's length and volume should control the range, out-land Garbrandt across the board, and either crack the division's most vulnerable chin or bank the rounds behind a steady, high-output pace. He is younger (31 vs 33), throws 2.2x the volume, owns a 4.5-inch reach edge and a positive 1.46 damage ratio, and carries the better — if imperfect — chin, all aimed at the single most exploitable target in the matchup. The composite math actually grades Garbrandt higher (57.4 vs 52.2) on the strength of his defense, clinch-wrestling and proven championship cardio, so this is a conscious override on chin, age, reach and an inconsistent recent run — which is exactly why conviction sits at a guarded 5/10.
Prediction: Adrian Yanez by KO/TKO or decision most likely (58% overall — 34% KO, 22% decision) through superior length, volume and the fresher chin. Cody Garbrandt's path (42% — 28% KO, 12% decision) is the puncher's chance: one over-the-top counter on a chin that has been knocked out four times, or the clinch-wrestling Yanez can't answer. In a fight between two of the division's deadliest punchers, the chin that breaks first decides it — and No Love only needs to land once.