Cody Durden vs Alessandro Costa
Flyweight Bout • UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
Saturday, July 11, 2026 • T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas
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Cody Durden
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Alessandro Costa
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Cody Durden
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-17 | Matt Schnell | W | SUB — Guillotine (R2, 0:29) |
| 2025-02-15 | Allan Nascimento | L | SUB — Anaconda Choke (R2, 3:13) |
| 2024-12-14 | Jose Ochoa | L | KO/TKO — Punch (R2, 0:11) |
| 2024-12-07 | Joshua Van | L | Decision — Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-08-03 | Jake Hadley | W | Decision — Unanimous (R3, 5:00) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Alessandro Costa
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | Matt Schnell | W | KO/TKO — Ground & Pound (R1, 2:28) |
| 2026-04-04 | Stewart Nicoll | W | KO/TKO — Body Punch (R2, 4:56) |
| 2025-03-08 | Alden Coria | L | KO/TKO — Punches (R3, 0:47) |
| 2024-09-14 | Kevin Borjas | W | KO/TKO — Punches from Mount (R2, 1:35) |
| 2024-02-17 | Jimmy Flick | W | KO/TKO — Elbows from Half Guard (R2, 1:03) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (40.6 vs 51.6) and Grappling Composite (69.3 vs 41.9). Costa edges the striking, but Durden's elite takedown engine drives a 27-point grappling gap that tips the overall technical score his way (55.0 vs 46.8).
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Cody Durden Key Advantages
Durden's 4.13 takedowns per 15 minutes (rank 4 of 32 in the flyweight division) against Costa's 0.46 is the structural core of this fight — nearly a 9x volume gap. Costa controls just 19 seconds a round and spends 93.6% of his time standing, so he wants no part of the mat. His 83% takedown defense is genuinely good, but Durden's edge is volume and persistence: he chains takedowns off the clinch (34 clinch TDs at 47.9% accuracy) and will shoot every round for fifteen minutes, banking 100 seconds of control per round. Even a heavily-stuffed night still concedes meaningful control time and damage to a striker who fades.
Durden's output and control rise into the championship minutes — his R3/R1 output ratio is 145%, his R3 control peaks at 118 seconds, and the database tags him a "Strong Finisher." That curve is the perfect counter to Costa's collapse: Costa's output craters from 21.4 strikes in R1 to 6.7 in R3 (54% retention, "Fades Late"), and he has been TKO'd in the third round twice (Albazi, Coria). These two trajectories cross hard somewhere in round two. Durden does not merely win the late rounds on points — Costa has been finished in exactly the phase where Durden is strongest.
Durden is the more battle-tested man: 29 fights of computed data, an Elite strength-of-schedule tier, six decision wins, and a 9:30 average fight time. He knows how to win ugly, deep-water rounds — exactly the fight shape this contest is most likely to produce. Layered on top is a one-directional submission threat: his attempts spike in round two (sub_r2 83.3%), and his guillotine (the fresh Matt Schnell finish) and triangle are live whenever Costa shoots a desperate takedown or ducks into a scramble. Costa's own submission offense is negligible (rank 20/32, no Octagon sub wins), so the grappling danger only flows one way.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
This is the upset blueprint. Durden slow-starts in 50% of his fights and has been stopped early before — KO'd by Jose Ochoa just 11 seconds into round two, TKO'd by Bruno Silva. Costa starts fast (0% slow start), bangs hard early (21.4 R1 strikes, R1 KD 0.20), and carries real one-shot power (KD average 0.69, rank 7/32; net-positive 1.50 knockdown exchange). If a clean Costa power shot finds Durden's suspect chin in the opening five minutes — before the wrestling rhythm sets in — Durden is genuinely finishable.
Costa's 83% takedown defense is the best Durden has faced in this window. If the sprawl holds at anything near that rate, Durden's single structural edge is neutralized and he is forced into a kickboxing match he loses: his striking defense is below average (rank 21/32) and he absorbs a lot (4.35 SApM, rank 25/32). Costa's repeated R1 leg kicks (31.8% of his round-one targeting) can also chop Durden's lead leg and degrade the level-change base his takedown volume depends on — quietly evaporating the American Top Team wrestler's only structural advantage.
📋 Likely Gameplan
The single most important instruction: survive the opening five minutes. Durden must respect Costa's R1 power and leg kicks, stay defensively disciplined, and avoid getting cracked while slow-starting. His striking is not winning at range, so the job is to use level-change feints and forward pressure to back Costa to the fence — the one place Durden thrives (70.1% clinch accuracy, 47.9% clinch takedowns). Survive round one roughly even and the fight tilts hard his way.
Even at 83% stuffed, attempting 4+ takedowns a round forces Costa to expend energy defending, accelerates his fade, and lands enough — plus the control behind them — to bank rounds. Round two is the grind round (and the window where Durden's guillotine/triangle is live off a Costa scramble), so prioritize position over wild exchanges. Then pour it on in round three: this is where the data says Durden wins, as Costa lands fewer than seven strikes and gets walled up 70% of the round while Durden's control and output peak — the exact late TKO that Albazi and Coria already produced.
🚀 Alessandro Costa Key Advantages
Costa is the cleaner, more dangerous striker. His knockdown average of 0.69 ranks 7th of 32 in the division (+60% above average), and his knockdown exchange is net-positive at 1.50 (6 dealt / 4 absorbed) — both of his UFC wins are highlight knockouts (Borjas, Flick). That genuine concussive threat meets Durden's 50% slow-start rate and crackable chin. Costa starts fast (0% slow start) and bangs early (21.4 R1 strikes, R1 KD 0.20). Every clean standup minute is a Costa minute, and in the opening five he is the most likely man to end the night.
Costa's 83% takedown defense is the single biggest reason this is competitive and not a one-sided wrestling clinic. If his sprawl holds near that rate, he forces the fight into the phase he wins — better striking defense (rank 14/32 vs Durden's 21), real power, and higher early volume. The whole upset hinges on keeping it vertical, and Costa's Muay Thai leg-kick game (31.8% of his R1 targeting) is built to chop Durden's base, compromise his level-change explosiveness, and make every takedown entry more telegraphed and tiring.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Durden survives the R1 power window — his single most likely failure point passes — the fight reaches round two, and the wrestling rhythm sets in. From there Costa's documented fade arrives on schedule: output craters to single digits (6.7 strikes), he is pressed to the fence 70% of the third round, and Durden's R3 control surge (118 seconds) plus ground-and-pound produces a late TKO — the exact way Amir Albazi and Alden Coria already beat him. The deeper the fight goes, the worse Costa's position becomes.
A desperate, tiring takedown attempt or a scramble in round two hands Durden the guillotine or triangle he hunts in that exact window (sub_r2 83.3%, the fresh Schnell guillotine precedent). Costa's own submission offense is minimal (rank 20/32, no UFC sub finishes), so any grappling exchange runs one direction. Even if the sprawl holds at 70% rather than 83% against Durden's sheer volume, the 30% that get through — plus the control they generate — is enough to lose all three rounds on the cards.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Costa's whole edge is front-loaded, so he must start fast (his 0% slow-start strength), commit to the power and the 31.8% R1 leg-kick game, and hunt the early KO against a slow-starting, chin-questionable opponent — while chopping the base to take away the shot before the wrestling rhythm ever sets in. Turning the opening five minutes into a kickboxing match is the entire path to victory.
Costa cannot win a fifteen-minute grind, so he needs a finish in R1–R2 or a 2-rounds-to-1 sprint that survives the fade. That means winning the takedown-defense battle outright — sprawl, frame, circle off the cage, and refuse to let Durden establish the clinch. The data screams the warning for the third: 6.7 strikes, 70% clinch time, two prior R3 KO losses. If it reaches R3, Costa must create space, keep it at range, and above all avoid being held against the fence while tired.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
📉The Crossing Curves
Strip everything else away and this fight is two output curves moving in opposite directions. Costa fades hard: 21.4 → 13.4 → 6.7 significant strikes by round. Durden is a "Strong Finisher" whose control climbs 110 → 76 → 118 seconds and whose R3/R1 output ratio is 145%. The curves cross somewhere around the seven-to-nine-minute mark. Before the crossing point this is Costa's fight — faster, harder, more accurate at range. After it, it is comprehensively Durden's. The entire contest is a race between Costa's early-finish clock and Durden's grind clock, and a fifteen-minute fight simply contains more late minutes than early ones.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The two are near mirror images in raw striking — both about 3.5 SLpM, both 45% accuracy, both ranked 16–17 of 32 — so the fight is decided in the margins. Costa owns the quality-of- striking margins: better defense (rank 14 vs 21), real power (KD rank 7 vs 23), and a net-positive 1.50 knockdown exchange. Durden owns the two structural pillars that win 15-minute fights: an elite takedown engine (4.13 TD/15, rank 4/32, +129% above the division) and a late-round trajectory that inverts Costa's (Durden 145% R3/R1 output vs Costa 54%). Because the grappling gap (27 points of composite) is more than twice the striking gap, and grappling control compounds over the fight, the net technical edge is Durden's (55.0 vs 46.8).
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three areas decide it: the slow-start / fast-start collision in round one, the 83% takedown-defense question, and the fade-vs-finish collision late. Durden slow-starts 50% of the time into a man who starts fast and hits hard — the opening five minutes are Costa's highest-probability window and the upset's launch pad. But Costa's 83% takedown defense was earned largely against strikers, not a top-four-volume clinch-wrestler; Durden doesn't need his average, he needs to land enough and bank the control behind the attempts. By round three Costa's own profile shows him pressed to the fence 70% of the round — evidence the defense erodes exactly when Durden surges.
🏁Final Prediction
The single most likely outcome is Cody Durden by Decision (30%) — the classic wrestle-and-accumulate path his six career decision wins and Elite SOS support. His submission lane (14%) captures the R2 guillotine/triangle off a Costa scramble (sub_r2 83%), and his KO/TKO lane (12%) is mostly the late ground-and-pound TKO on a faded, fence-pinned Costa that Albazi and Coria already produced. Costa's best path is his 22% KO/TKO — early power into Durden's slow start and crackable chin, the highest single finish probability in the fight — plus a 14% decision and 8% submission floor. The read is simple: if it ends early, it ends Costa's way; if it goes long, it goes Durden's — and there are more late minutes than early ones.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: ~62% | Implied: 52.4% — both finish patterns skew late, not early.
GOOD VALUE
Model: ~82% | Implied: 71.4% — a fast R1 stoppage is the least likely finish in this matchup.
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: ~27% | Implied: 25.0% — R2 is Durden's submission window and Costa's last live finishing round.
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Overweights Costa's early KO – Underprices Durden's grind and the late-round path.
- • Undervalues the takedown engine – 4.13 TD/15 (rank 4/32) plus control accumulation over 15 minutes.
- • Misreads the fade collision – Costa's R3 output craters to 6.7 strikes; this fight lives in the late minutes.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Cody Durden
Most likely outcome — wrestle and accumulate to 29-28 / 30-27
R2 guillotine/triangle off a Costa scramble (sub_r2 83%)
Late ground-and-pound TKO on a faded, fence-pinned Costa
💥Outcome Distribution - Alessandro Costa
Dominant path — early power into Durden's slow start
Requires 83% TDDef to hold and surviving the R3 fade
Floor figure — BJJ background, but no UFC sub finishes
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Alessandro Costa
- • First 5–7 minutes: Highest early-KO equity into a slow starter.
- • Win the sprawl: 83% TDDef keeps it a kickboxing match.
- • Chop the base: 31.8% R1 leg kicks to kill the level change.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Cody Durden
- • Out-volume the TDD: 4+ shots a round tire Costa and bank control.
- • R2 scramble traps: guillotine/triangle live off any Costa shot.
- • Pour it on in R3: 145% output and 118s control chase the late TKO.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
A clear-but-modest lean to Durden — a true pick-em with a grinder's edge
✅Supporting Factors
- • Widest metric in the fight — TD/15 4.13 vs 0.46 (rank 4/32)
- • Fade-vs-finish collision: Costa 54% R3 output, two R3 TKO losses
- • Durden's 145% R3 output and 118s control own the late rounds
- • Elite SOS, deep-water comfort, one-directional sub threat
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Costa's power (KD 7/32) into Durden's 50% slow start
- • 83% TDDef is the best Durden has faced in this window
- • Archetype baseline (47.8%) leans Costa; both "Good" chins
🏁Executive Summary
This is a fight of two halves. In roughly the first five-to-seven minutes, Alessandro Costa is the better, more dangerous man — faster, harder, kicking the legs, and hunting the knockout against a wary, slow-starting Cody Durden. His power is real (KD rank 7/32, net-positive 1.50 exchange) and his 83% takedown defense is the best Durden has faced in this window, so the upset lane is genuine: about 44 of 100 sims go his way, mostly an early KO or a striking-led result before the fade. But in the other 56 the fight survives that window and tips into Durden's world — clinch entries, takedown attempts that wear down an 83%-but-tiring defense, accumulating control, and a third round where Costa's output falls off a cliff (6.7 strikes, 70% fence time) while Durden's surges (145% output, 118 seconds of control). The archetype baseline (47.8% for the Technical Striker) is an honest reason for humility, but Durden's individual deviations — elite takedown volume and a documented late-round edge — clear it.
Prediction: Cody Durden by Decision most likely (30%), with a one-directional R2 submission threat (14%) and a late ground-and-pound TKO (12%) rounding out his 56% win probability; Costa's upset engine is his 22% early KO/TKO into Durden's slow start. This fight is decided by the clock — if it ends early it ends Costa's way, if it goes long it goes Durden's — and a fifteen-minute fight has more late minutes than early ones.