A Riyadh Fight Night on Saturday, December 5. Israel Adesanya (24-6) is reported to meet Shara Magomedov (17-1) over five rounds. The UFC has yet to formally announce that main event. Five supporting bouts are confirmed, including Jafel Filho vs. flyweight Bruno Silva. Editorial handicap if the main event is booked: Adesanya 58%, Magomedov 42%. Live on Paramount+ at 9:00 AM ET / 5:00 PM in Riyadh.
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Israel Adesanya (24-6) is the reported main event opposite Shara Magomedov (17-1). The other five bouts are confirmed.
💡 Odds shown are BetOnline prices where posted, alongside the probability each quote implies. They are not a guarantee of the best price across all books. The win splits on this card are editorial handicaps, not calibrated model outputs.
Main event
Middleweight · 5 rounds
Market differences are not a ranking of best bets. Conviction is editorial; a close matchup does not automatically mean poor data.
Fights shown: 6/6 · Analyses available: 6/6
Editorial estimate
Tactical key
Adesanya wants this at the end of his jab and lead-leg kicks, circling off the fence and making Magomedov reach, the way a longer, mobile striker handed him his only loss. Magomedov has to walk him down and turn exchanges into spinning back fists and body kicks before the championship rounds. Every clean right hand that reaches Adesanya's chin shifts the fight toward Magomedov.
Tactical key
Filho wants the fight on the mat early, where his back takes, arm-triangles and kimuras have ended every one of his UFC wins inside the first round. Silva is the harder hitter and the busier striker, so the fight flips if he stuffs those early entries, makes Filho carry the pace into the third round and punishes a tired shot.
Tactical key
Rodrigues has built his whole record in the opening minutes, and Duclos looked most uncomfortable in Paris when a blitz forced him backward. The first exchanges decide whether that pressure lands clean. If Duclos keeps his feet under him and times the rush with his counter left hook, the fight drifts toward the late rounds, where Rodrigues has never been.
Editorial estimate
Tactical key
Sosa wants a pressure fight built on right hands, clinch entries and top control, but every level change he makes near Hussein offers the neck to a fighter who finishes from the front headlock. If Sosa keeps his head high and drags the bout into deep waters, the late rounds tilt toward him; if he ducks in early, the chokes arrive.
Tactical key
Dulatov wants the centre of the cage, where his length and quick one-two let him punch first and counter with the left hook as Chokheli steps in. Chokheli's answer is the outside low kick and the hook to the body, which tax a tall man's base and drag the fight into later rounds Dulatov has rarely seen.
Editorial estimate
Tactical key
Gnizditskiy has finished every opponent inside two rounds, so the opening exchanges carry the most danger for Satybaldiev, whose length only helps if his jab and kicks keep the shorter man from setting his feet. If Satybaldiev survives the early pressure and drags the fight into clinches and top position, his sambo control and experience in long fights start to tilt the later minutes.
Deep Dive
The December 5 Riyadh card, the reported main event, and the six published matchup analyses.
The Story
UFC Fight Night on December 5 is built around a reported middleweight main event: Israel Adesanya (24-6) against Shara Magomedov (17-1), scheduled for five rounds if the UFC announces it. The UFC has yet to formally announce it. Adesanya is on a four-fight losing streak after the round-two knockout loss to Joe Pyfer.
The rest of the card is confirmed for three rounds: Jafel Filho vs. flyweight Bruno Silva, Matthieu Duclos vs. Modestino Rodrigues, Abdul Hussein vs. Hecher Sosa, Levan Chokheli vs. Islam Dulatov, and Uran Satybaldiev vs. Ivan Gnizditskiy. Each published split is an editorial handicap. None of them is a calibrated model probability.
Reported main event — Middleweight
01Adesanya vs. Magomedov
Israel Adesanya (24-6) is reported to meet Shara Magomedov (17-1) over five rounds; the UFC has yet to formally announce the bout. Editorial handicap: Adesanya 58%, Magomedov 42%. That split applies only if this pairing is booked.
Full breakdown
Prelims — Flyweight
02Filho vs. Silva
Jafel Filho (17-5) meets flyweight Bruno Silva, Bulldog (15-9-2), over three rounds. This is not the middleweight Bruno Silva. Editorial handicap: Filho 54%, Silva 46%.
Full breakdown
Prelims — Bantamweight
03Hussein vs. Sosa
Abdul Hussein (16-2) meets Hecher Sosa (15-1) at 135. Hussein's recent UFC win was a submission of Cody Gibson. Editorial handicap: Hussein 57%, Sosa 43%.
Full breakdown
Prelims — Light Heavyweight
04Satybaldiev vs. Gnizditskiy
Uran Satybaldiev (9-1) meets unbeaten Ivan Gnizditskiy (7-0) at 205. Gnizditskiy makes his UFC debut. Editorial handicap: Gnizditskiy 55%, Satybaldiev 45%.
Full breakdown
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Magomedov takes place on 2026-12-05 in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. 6 listed bouts. Main event, reported and awaiting a formal UFC announcement: Israel Adesanya vs. Shara Magomedov (middleweight, 5 rounds). Prelims, confirmed: Jafel Filho vs. Bruno Silva (flyweight, 3 rounds); Matthieu Duclos vs. Modestino Rodrigues (middleweight, 3 rounds); Abdul Hussein vs. Hecher Sosa (bantamweight, 3 rounds); Levan Chokheli vs. Islam Dulatov (welterweight, 3 rounds); Uran Satybaldiev vs. Ivan Gnizditskiy (light heavyweight, 3 rounds). The main card streams on Paramount+ at 9:00 AM ET, which is 5:00 PM in Riyadh.
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Magomedov streams from Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on Saturday, December 5, 2026. The announced main-card start is 9:00 AM ET on Paramount+, which is 5:00 PM local time in Riyadh. The United States is on standard time, so that is 6:00 AM PT, 2:00 PM GMT in the United Kingdom and Ireland, and 3:00 PM CET in Central Europe. Prelims begin earlier the same day, also on Paramount+. All listed times remain subject to broadcast changes.
6 listed bouts. Main event, reported and awaiting a formal UFC announcement: Israel Adesanya vs. Shara Magomedov (middleweight, 5 rounds). Prelims, confirmed: Jafel Filho vs. Bruno Silva (flyweight, 3 rounds); Matthieu Duclos vs. Modestino Rodrigues (middleweight, 3 rounds); Abdul Hussein vs. Hecher Sosa (bantamweight, 3 rounds); Levan Chokheli vs. Islam Dulatov (welterweight, 3 rounds); Uran Satybaldiev vs. Ivan Gnizditskiy (light heavyweight, 3 rounds).
The published win splits are editorial handicaps, not calibrated model probabilities. Israel Adesanya 58% and Shara Magomedov 42%, and that split applies only if the bout is booked. Jafel Filho 54% and Bruno Silva 46%. Modestino Rodrigues 54% and Matthieu Duclos 46%. Abdul Hussein 57% and Hecher Sosa 43%. Islam Dulatov 53% and Levan Chokheli 47%. Ivan Gnizditskiy 55% and Uran Satybaldiev 45%. No BetOnline quote was reviewed for this card. Fair prices are the break-even prices of these estimates, not a verified market edge.
Israel Adesanya vs. Shara Magomedov has been widely reported, but the UFC has yet to formally announce it. The other five bouts are confirmed. Main event, reported and awaiting a formal UFC announcement: Israel Adesanya vs. Shara Magomedov (middleweight, 5 rounds). Prelims, confirmed: Jafel Filho vs. Bruno Silva (flyweight, 3 rounds); Matthieu Duclos vs. Modestino Rodrigues (middleweight, 3 rounds); Abdul Hussein vs. Hecher Sosa (bantamweight, 3 rounds); Levan Chokheli vs. Islam Dulatov (welterweight, 3 rounds); Uran Satybaldiev vs. Ivan Gnizditskiy (light heavyweight, 3 rounds). Card order remains subject to change. If the main event is booked against a different opponent, the Adesanya split does not carry over.
UFC experience describes the size of the available sample, not the chance of winning. A short UFC record leaves more uncertainty about how a fighter performs against different styles. Opponent quality, recent changes and missing statistics also matter; five bouts alone do not establish that a prediction is well calibrated.
Limited UFC sample
<3 UFC Bouts
Fewer than three UFC fights. Analysis leans more heavily on pre-UFC performance patterns and fighting style.
Developing UFC sample
3-4 UFC Bouts
Some UFC evidence is available, but a few matchups can strongly influence the averages. Check opponent quality and the limitations in each analysis.
Established UFC sample
5+ UFC Bouts
More UFC observations are available. This does not guarantee predictive accuracy; changes in opposition, injuries and style can still limit the estimate.
Note: All fights receive thorough analysis regardless of UFC experience levels. Analyst conviction is an editorial assessment, not a measured probability or statistical confidence interval.
Yellow marks the editorial favorite. The comparison shows that estimate against the probability implied by each quote. Gap is in percentage points (pp), includes bookmaker margin, and is not expected return. These estimates are not calibrated model outputs.
| Fight | Fighter A | Win estimate A | Market / implied A | Fighter B | Win estimate B | Market / implied B | Model / market & our read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adesanya vs Magomedov🟢 | Israel AdesanyaAnalyst favorite | 58% | —— | Shara Magomedov | 42% | —— | Win probabilityAnalystMarketGapIsrael Adesanya58%——Shara Magomedov42%—— Our read: We favor Israel Adesanya. A market price is needed to assess value. Analyst estimate · not a calibrated model |
| Filho vs Silva🟢 | Jafel FilhoAnalyst favorite | 54% | —— | Bruno Silva | 46% | —— | Win probabilityAnalystMarketGapJafel Filho54%——Bruno Silva46%—— Our read: We narrowly lean Jafel Filho. A market price is needed to assess value. Analyst estimate · not a calibrated model |
| Duclos vs Rodrigues🔴 | Matthieu Duclos | 46% | —— | Modestino RodriguesAnalyst favorite | 54% | —— | Win probabilityAnalystMarketGapMatthieu Duclos46%——Modestino Rodrigues54%—— Our read: We narrowly lean Modestino Rodrigues. A market price is needed to assess value. Analyst estimate · not a calibrated model |
| Hussein vs Sosa🔴 | Abdul HusseinAnalyst favorite | 57% | —— | Hecher Sosa | 43% | —— | Win probabilityAnalystMarketGapAbdul Hussein57%——Hecher Sosa43%—— Our read: We favor Abdul Hussein. A market price is needed to assess value. Analyst estimate · not a calibrated model |
| Chokheli vs Dulatov🔴 | Levan Chokheli | 47% | —— | Islam DulatovAnalyst favorite | 53% | —— | Win probabilityAnalystMarketGapLevan Chokheli47%——Islam Dulatov53%—— Our read: We narrowly lean Islam Dulatov. A market price is needed to assess value. Analyst estimate · not a calibrated model |
| Satybaldiev vs Gnizditskiy🔴 | Uran Satybaldiev | 45% | —— | Ivan GnizditskiyAnalyst favorite | 55% | —— | Win probabilityAnalystMarketGapUran Satybaldiev45%——Ivan Gnizditskiy55%—— Our read: We narrowly lean Ivan Gnizditskiy. A market price is needed to assess value. Analyst estimate · not a calibrated model |
