Levan Chokheli vs Islam Dulatov: analysis & prediction

PRELIMS · WELTERWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Magomedov
Levan Chokheli — Welterweight fighter

Levan Chokheli

15W3L
Power striker
…
VS
Islam Dulatov — Welterweight fighter

Islam Dulatov

“The Ripper”
12W1L
First-round finisher
…

Dulatov's length and counter hook meet Chokheli's low kicks and body work

WelterweightRiyadh, Saudi Arabia2026-12-05

The fight in 30 seconds

Levan Chokheli 47% / Islam Dulatov 53%. Islam Dulatov is the editorial selection. His length, counter left hook and finishing range with knees, elbows and chokes give him the slightly better path in the first round, where both men have done almost all of their finishing.

Subjective editorial probabilities, not calibrated model outputs.

Levan Chokheli

Insufficient price data
Editorial win estimate
47%
Fair odds
+113
Reference quote
—
Fair decimal odds
2.13

Islam Dulatov

Insufficient price data
Editorial win estimate
53%
Fair odds
-113
Reference quote
—
Fair decimal odds
1.89
Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Quotes listed with a date but no time are treated as undated.

Read the handicapping and counterarguments
01

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Levan Chokheli (15-3) vs. Islam Dulatov (12-1): Welterweight, 3 five-minute rounds in Riyadh. Both are 1-0 in the UFC with first-round knockouts. Dulatov brings a 6'3" frame and twelve straight stoppage wins; Chokheli brings 12 knockouts, a seasoned Bellator schedule and the fifteen-minute experience Dulatov has not needed since 2019.

Levan Chokheli
Attribute
Islam Dulatov
15-3
Pro record
12-1
1-0
UFC record
1-0
Welterweight
Booked division
Welterweight
170 lb
Booked limit
170 lb
72 in
Height
75 in
73 in
Reach
75 in
30
Age
28
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Jun 20, 2026
Last fight
Jul 19, 2025

Height and reach are in inches, and ages are as of fight night, December 5, 2026. Both fighters are booked at the 170 lb welterweight limit.

Venue Factor
Scheduled for 3 five-minute rounds. Dulatov's three-inch height and two-inch reach edge matter most in the first exchange at range; Chokheli's low kicks are his tool for crossing that distance.
02

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Levan Chokheli lands a left hand during his UFC debut, June 2026

Levan Chokheli

Levan Chokheli

Pro record
15-3
UFC bouts
1
Career KO/TKO wins
12
Career submission wins
0

Chokheli turned professional in Georgia in 2016 and started 9-0, every win a first-round stoppage and most inside a minute. He went 4-3 in Bellator against a demanding schedule: a decision loss to Kyle Crutchmer and a decision win in his first year, a first-round submission loss to Goiti Yamauchi, then decisions over Roman Faraldo and Michael Lombardo and a 1:51 knockout of Sabah Homasi before Lorenz Larkin stopped him in 2024.

He rebuilt with a second-round knockout at Phoenix FC 4 and made his UFC debut in June 2026, opening with a heavy outside low kick and finishing Leon Shahbazyan with a left hook to the body after 23 seconds. Twelve of his fifteen wins are knockouts and the other three are decisions, and he says he would rather stand and throw his hands than wrestle.

Recent results

  • W

    Leon Shahbazyan

    TKO (leg kick and punches), R1 0:23 · Jun 20, 2026 · UFC Vegas 119

  • W

    Alexandre Goncalves

    KO/TKO, R2 2:59 · May 24, 2025 · Phoenix FC 4

  • L

    Lorenz Larkin

    KO/TKO, R1 1:53 · Sep 7, 2024 · Bellator Champions Series San Diego

  • W

    Sabah Homasi

    KO/TKO, R1 1:51 · Sep 23, 2023 · Bellator 299

  • W

    Michael Lombardo

    Decision (unanimous) · Apr 21, 2023 · Bellator 294

Islam Dulatov has his hand raised after a win on Dana White’s Contender Series

Islam Dulatov

Islam Dulatov

Pro record
12-1
UFC bouts
1
Career KO/TKO wins
8
Career submission wins
4

Dulatov lost his professional debut by decision in 2019 and has won twelve straight since, all by stoppage and eleven in the first round: eight knockouts and four chokes that each ended inside 53 seconds. An elbow knockout of Vanilto Antunes on the Contender Series in October 2024 earned his contract.

At UFC 318 he took the centre, defended Adam Fugitt's takedowns on the fence with underhooks, landed hard knees and then dropped Fugitt with a check left hook at 4:06 for a Performance of the Night bonus. He has not fought since: a July 2026 return against Wellington Turman was cancelled after he was hospitalised with an infection the night before the event.

Recent results

  • W

    Adam Fugitt

    KO (left hook), R1 4:06 · Jul 19, 2025 · UFC 318

  • W

    Vanilto Antunes

    KO (elbow), R1 2:44 · Oct 8, 2024 · Dana White's Contender Series

  • W

    Ioannis Palaiologos

    TKO, R1 4:59 · Feb 10, 2024 · Oktagon 53

  • W

    Will Chope

    TKO, R1 2:00 · Oct 7, 2023 · Sparta Championship Fighting 3

  • W

    Patrick Spirk

    Submission (arm-triangle), R1 0:48 · Mar 11, 2023 · Sparta Championship Fighting 2

03

The Numbers

Career statistics and what they say about this matchup

Published career statistics

Published profile averages describe past opposition, not a prediction of this fight. The source sample may include Contender Series appearances.

Levan Chokheli: One UFC bout lasting 23 seconds through October 2026. Rates on a sample this short describe a single exchange, not a career pattern.

Islam Dulatov: Averages across 6 minutes 50 seconds of cage time, his Contender Series finish plus one UFC bout, through October 2026.

Career statistical comparison for Levan Chokheli and Islam Dulatov
MetricLevan ChokheliIslam Dulatov
Significant strikes landed / min15.658.78
Significant strikes absorbed / min04.24
Striking accuracy55%55%
Striking defence100%50%
Takedowns / 15 min02.2
Takedown defence—100%
Submission attempts / 15 min00
Knockdowns / 15 min39.134.39

Submission attempts are not submission wins. Defence percentages depend on attempts faced. These are career profile averages, so no division rank is assigned. A dash is not a zero.

04

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Dulatov's length and counter hook meet Chokheli's low kicks and body work

Dulatov wants the centre of the cage, where his length and quick one-two let him punch first and counter with the left hook as Chokheli steps in. Chokheli's answer is the outside low kick and the hook to the body, which tax a tall man's base and drag the fight into later rounds Dulatov has rarely seen.

The Deep Read

The fight starts with a question of who owns the centre. Dulatov walks forward from the opening bell and throws fast straight punches; Adam Fugitt backed up and conceded that space at once. Chokheli is unlikely to do the same. His UFC debut opened with an outside low kick in the first seconds and ended with a left hook to the body once Leon Shahbazyan's back touched the fence. Against a taller opponent who plants his lead leg to throw the one-two, that is the right combination: the kick attacks the base and the body hook lands underneath the long guard.

Dulatov wins exchanges because he hits harder and faster, not because opponents miss. Over his small published sample he absorbs more than four significant strikes a minute and defends half of what comes at him, and Fugitt was able to answer his one-two with an inside leg kick and push him to the fence. Against a man with 12 knockouts who finished Sabah Homasi in under two minutes, trading in the pocket carries real risk for him. If the first clean low kick lands and Dulatov keeps his feet planted to answer it, the fight moves toward Chokheli's exchange.

The counterweight is Chokheli's own defence. Lorenz Larkin, a patient counter-puncher, stopped him in 1:53, and Dulatov's knockout of Fugitt came from a check left hook as Fugitt came forward. A shorter, heavy-handed fighter who pressures behind his punches is exactly the opponent that hook was built for. If Chokheli walks Dulatov to the fence, he also meets the second weapon set: two hard knees on Fugitt from the clinch, the elbow that finished Vanilto Antunes, and underhooks that shut down Fugitt's takedown attempts. If Chokheli is hurt and changes levels to survive, Dulatov's four quick chokes show how fast he finds the neck.

Time is Chokheli's ally. He has completed four fifteen-minute fights and won three of them; Dulatov has not been past the second round since his 2019 debut and arrives 504 days after his last fight, with a July 2026 withdrawal for an infection in between. None of that proves Dulatov's conditioning will fade, but it makes the third round unknown territory for him and familiar ground for Chokheli. That is why Chokheli carries the larger decision share even though Dulatov is the overall lean.

Path to Victory

Levan Chokheli

Kick the lead leg early, attack the body with the left hook and make Dulatov reset his feet every time he plants to punch. Drag the fight past the first round, where fifteen-minute experience meets a long layoff.

Why they win
01
Primary route

Kick the lead leg early, attack the body with the left hook and make Dulatov reset his feet every time he plants to punch. Drag the fight past the first round, where fifteen-minute experience meets a long layoff.

02
Supporting evidence

Chokheli is 5-1 in his last six, with the only loss to Lorenz Larkin. His UFC debut opened with an outside low kick and ended 23 seconds in with a left hook to the body. He beat Sabah Homasi in under two minutes and has won three fifteen-minute decisions, so he can finish early or win late.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Entry

    Open with the outside low kick before Dulatov can establish the centre.

  2. 2
    Position

    Enter with the body hook and exit at an angle instead of following straight in behind punches.

  3. 3
    Adjustment

    If Dulatov slows in the second round, raise the volume and take the final round on the cards or by stoppage.

Path to Victory

Islam Dulatov

Take the centre immediately, land the one-two first from a two-inch reach edge and punish Chokheli's entries with the check left hook. If Chokheli is hurt and shoots or turtles, attack the neck.

Why they win
01
Primary route

Take the centre immediately, land the one-two first from a two-inch reach edge and punish Chokheli's entries with the check left hook. If Chokheli is hurt and shoots or turtles, attack the neck.

02
Supporting evidence

Dulatov has won twelve straight, all by stoppage, eleven of them in the first round. He dropped Adam Fugitt with a check left hook at UFC 318, finished Vanilto Antunes with an elbow on the Contender Series, and has four chokes that all ended inside 53 seconds. He has never been stopped.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Entry

    Win the centre early and push Chokheli back with straight punches before the low kick lands.

  2. 2
    Position

    Check the outside kick or answer it instantly with the one-two so it stops being free.

  3. 3
    Adjustment

    In the clinch, frame with underhooks and use knees and elbows instead of trading at short range.

Danger Zone

How Levan Chokheli loses

  • He follows a kick straight into Dulatov's range and walks onto the counter left hook, as Fugitt did.

  • He pins Dulatov to the fence and stays in the clinch, where the knees and elbows are waiting.

Danger Zone

How Islam Dulatov loses

  • His lead leg absorbs repeated low kicks and his base breaks down before he finds the finish.

  • The fight goes past the first round, the layoff shows in his pace, and Chokheli wins the later rounds on experience.

Conditional tactical scenario, not a statistical projection

Round 1: what to watch

Round 1 carries the most weight: eleven of each fighter's twelve stoppages came in the first. Watch whether Chokheli's outside low kick lands before Dulatov settles into the centre. If Chokheli steps in behind punches instead, the counter left hook and clinch knees are the biggest finishing threats in the fight.

Conditional tactical scenario, not a statistical projection

Round 2: what to watch

Round 2 tests Dulatov's pace after a long layoff. Accumulated low kicks and body hooks should start to matter and Chokheli can begin to choose his entries. Dulatov should keep exchanges short behind the jab rather than chasing a finish he has always found earlier.

Conditional tactical scenario, not a statistical projection

Round 3: what to watch

Round 3 is familiar ground for Chokheli and new ground for Dulatov, who has not fought a third round since 2019. A close fight entering the final five minutes tilts toward Chokheli. A Dulatov who is ahead should stay long and tie up on the fence instead of opening up in a tired exchange.

05

The Verdict

The matchup read, the betting market, and the swing factors

Editorial handicapping

Levan Chokheli 47% · Islam Dulatov 53%

Subjective analyst estimates for the announced opponent and distance. These are not calibrated outputs from the prediction model. Method probabilities are portions of the overall outcome distribution, not percentages conditional on winning.

Dulatov is estimated at 53%, mainly through the first round: his length, quick one-two and check left hook give him the better chance of landing first, and his knees, elbows and quick chokes punish Chokheli if he enters in a straight line. He has never been stopped, while Chokheli has been finished by Lorenz Larkin and Goiti Yamauchi.

Chokheli's 47% reflects a real path. His outside low kick and left hook to the body are the right tools against a taller opponent who plants to punch, and his four fifteen-minute Bellator fights give him the clearer edge if the bout reaches the third round against a man returning after 504 days.

The assessment is for 3 five-minute rounds at 170 lb. Combined inside-the-distance outcomes take 74% because eleven of each fighter's twelve stoppages came in the first round. Method shares are not conditional on the fighter winning, and the 100-cell display visualises these allocations rather than reporting simulated fights.

Dulatov drops toward 45% if fight-week reports suggest the infection and layoff are not fully behind him, or if Chokheli's low kick lands cleanly in the opening minute; he rises toward 60% if he looks sharp and wins the early exchanges at range as he did against Fugitt. Scenario range for Islam Dulatov: 45–60%; the complementary range for Levan Chokheli is 40–55%. These are judgment-based scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

If you only read 2 things
1

Levan Chokheli 47% / Islam Dulatov 53%. Islam Dulatov is the editorial selection. His length, counter left hook and finishing range with knees, elbows and chokes give him the slightly better path in the first round, where both men have done almost all of their finishing.

2

Chokheli's low kicks, body work and fifteen-minute experience keep the fight close, especially if Dulatov's long absence shows in the later rounds.

Editorial outcome distribution · 100 percentage points

Each square represents one percentage point of the subjective editorial distribution. This is an illustration of the assigned probabilities, not a simulation or an observed result.

Levan Chokheli · KO/TKO — 30%Levan Chokheli · Decision — 14%Levan Chokheli · Submission — 3%Islam Dulatov · KO/TKO — 32%Islam Dulatov · Decision — 12%Islam Dulatov · Submission — 9%

Each square = 1 editorial percentage point. Levan Chokheli gold · Islam Dulatov orange · color opacity: 100% = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Levan Chokheli win probability
0%
30%
14%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Twelve of his fifteen wins are knockouts, and his outside low kick and left hook to the body can stop a long opponent who plants or squares up.

  • Three Bellator decision wins and four fifteen-minute fights give him the clearer route if both men survive the first round.

  • He has never won by submission; this covers a scramble or a hurt Dulatov giving up his back, nothing more.

Islam Dulatov win probability
0%
32%
12%
9%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Eight knockout wins, including the elbow and left-hook finishes in his last two fights, behind a two-inch reach edge.

  • He has never won a decision, so a points win depends on his length and output holding for fifteen minutes after a long layoff.

  • Four first-round chokes punish a hurt opponent who shoots or turtles, and Chokheli has been submitted before.

Editorial estimate vs market

Levan Chokheli

Insufficient price data
Editorial win estimate
47%
Fair odds
+113
Reference quote
—
Fair decimal odds
2.13
Estimated EV
—
Edge vs no-vig market
—

Islam Dulatov

Insufficient price data
Editorial win estimate
53%
Fair odds
-113
Reference quote
—
Fair decimal odds
1.89
Estimated EV
—
Edge vs no-vig market
—

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash marks a price without a same-book pair to compare.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Quotes listed with a date but no time are treated as undated.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Levan Chokheli

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 2.13 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Islam Dulatov

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 1.89 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Fair prices and expected value are arithmetic consequences of these subjective estimates. A positive calculation at an old quote is not a verified current opportunity.

Conviction
0
3/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Two power punchers, a combined UFC sample of four and a half minutes and a long layoff for the lean keep this close to a coin flip. Lean: Islam Dulatov.

What backs the lean

  • Dulatov's length, counter left hook and finishing range with knees, elbows and chokes give him the slightly better path in the first round, where both men have done almost all of their finishing.

  • Dulatov has won twelve straight, all by stoppage, and has never been finished. Chokheli has been stopped by strikes and by submission against good Bellator opposition.

What limits it

  • Chokheli's schedule is stronger: Homasi, Larkin, Crutchmer and Yamauchi are better opponents than anyone Dulatov fought before the UFC.

  • Dulatov returns after 504 days out, withdrew from his July 2026 bout after a hospital stay for an infection, and has never won a decision.

  • These are subjective editorial estimates without out-of-sample calibration; numerical precision does not imply measurement precision.

Final Assessment

Levan Chokheli 47% / Islam Dulatov 53%. Islam Dulatov is the editorial selection. His length, counter left hook and finishing range with knees, elbows and chokes give him the slightly better path in the first round, where both men have done almost all of their finishing.

Chokheli's low kicks, body work and fifteen-minute experience keep the fight close, especially if Dulatov's long absence shows in the later rounds.

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