Matthieu Duclos vs Modestino Rodrigues: analysis & prediction

PRELIMS · MIDDLEWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Magomedov
Matthieu Duclos — Middleweight fighter

Matthieu Duclos

“Letho”
11W3L
Counter striker
…
VS
Modestino Rodrigues — Middleweight fighter

Modestino Rodrigues

8W1L
First-minute finisher
…

Rodrigues's first-minute blitz against Duclos's counter left hook

MiddleweightRiyadh, Saudi Arabia2026-12-05

The fight in 30 seconds

Matthieu Duclos 46% / Modestino Rodrigues 54%. Modestino Rodrigues is the narrow editorial selection: his first-minute knockout power meets the exact situation, retreating under pressure, that troubled Duclos in Paris.

Subjective editorial probabilities, not calibrated model outputs.

Matthieu Duclos

Insufficient price data
Editorial win estimate
46%
Fair odds
+117
Reference quote
—
Fair decimal odds
2.17

Modestino Rodrigues

Insufficient price data
Editorial win estimate
54%
Fair odds
-117
Reference quote
—
Fair decimal odds
1.85
Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Quotes listed with a date but no time are treated as undated.

Read the handicapping and counterarguments
01

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Matthieu Duclos (11-3) vs. Modestino Rodrigues (8-1): Middleweight, 3 five-minute rounds in Riyadh. Two 6'3" knockout artists. Duclos won his UFC debut in Paris by countering a blitzing Luis Felipe Dias with a left hook; Rodrigues earned his contract with a 15-second Contender Series knockout and has never fought beyond 6:09.

Matthieu Duclos
Attribute
Modestino Rodrigues
11-3
Pro record
8-1
1-0
UFC record
Debut
Middleweight
Booked division
Middleweight
185 lb
Booked limit
185 lb
75.5"
Height
75"
76.5"
Reach
+1"77.5"
45.5"+3.5"
Leg reach
42"
31
Age
23
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Woirin Team Elite
Trains at
Revira Black Team

Height and reach in inches, ages on fight night. Career statistics and fight results through October 2026.

Venue Factor
Duclos fought his debut from five inches above Luis Felipe Dias. Here the heights match and Rodrigues has the longer arms, so the only physical edge left to Duclos is leg length for the teep and the knee.
02

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Matthieu Duclos landing a punch on Luis Felipe Dias at UFC Paris, September 2026

Matthieu Duclos

Matthieu Duclos

Pro record
11-3
UFC bouts
1
Career KO/TKO wins
9
Career submission wins
0

Duclos is 11-3 across 14 professional fights since 2019. After a heel-hook loss in his debut and a first-round knockout loss at Bellator 280 in Paris, he built his name on the French Hexagone MMA circuit, winning its middleweight title in February 2024 and defending it three times. Nine of his eleven wins are knockouts, and he has gone the full distance twice.

His first step up ended in a second-round stoppage by Marco Tulio on the Contender Series in August 2024. He answered with four straight Hexagone wins, then knocked out Luis Felipe Dias at 4:35 of the first round in his UFC debut in Paris. Dias had found success blitzing him backward, and Duclos ended it with a left hook counter as Dias rushed in behind a combination.

Recent results

  • W

    Luis Felipe Dias

    KO (punch) · R1 4:35 · 9/5/26 · UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse

  • W

    Ilian Bouafia

    TKO (injury) · R1 1:04 · 4/11/26 · Hexagone MMA 43

  • W

    Moacir Rocha

    KO/TKO · R2 4:28 · 11/7/25 · Hexagone MMA 36

  • W

    Thiago Hayne

    KO/TKO (knee and punches) · R2 4:21 · 4/25/25 · Hexagone MMA 27

  • W

    Daichi Mikami

    Decision (unanimous) · R3 5:00 · 1/10/25 · Hexagone MMA 23

Modestino Rodrigues portrait

Modestino Rodrigues

Modestino Rodrigues

Pro record
8-1
UFC bouts
0
Career KO/TKO wins
8
Career submission wins
0

Rodrigues is 8-1 with all eight wins by knockout, built across the Brazilian regional scene from his hometown of Fonte Boa to Jungle Fight. Six of those wins ended inside the first two minutes, and his longest fight lasted 6:09. His only loss was a 60-second knockout by Clayton Ferreira in March 2024, when he was 20.

He has won five straight since, the last a 15-second knockout of Brandon Holmes on the Contender Series in September after 14 months away from MMA. He dropped Holmes with a right hook inside the first 12 seconds; Dana White criticised the quick stoppage and gave him a contract anyway. He makes his UFC debut at 23.

Recent results

  • W

    Brandon Holmes

    KO/TKO (punches) · R1 0:15 · 9/1/26 · Dana White's Contender Series

  • W

    Virgilio Ailton

    KO/TKO (ground and pound) · R2 1:09 · 6/28/25 · Brazilian Cage Championship 1

  • W

    Uilton Correa

    KO/TKO · R1 1:05 · 4/5/25 · Mirmidões Champions Fight 6

  • W

    Alvaro Luiz

    KO/TKO · R1 1:06 · 9/28/24 · Jungle Fight 130

  • W

    Nathan Oliveira

    KO/TKO · R2 0:32 · 7/20/24 · Jungle Fight 128

03

The Numbers

Career statistics and what they say about this matchup

Published career statistics

Published profile averages describe past opposition, not a prediction of this fight. The source sample may include Contender Series appearances.

Matthieu Duclos: Two bouts and 12 minutes 13 seconds of cage time: the Paris knockout of Luis Felipe Dias and the 2024 Contender Series loss to Marco Tulio. The knockdown figure reflects a single knockdown.

Modestino Rodrigues: Makes his UFC debut. His Contender Series win over Brandon Holmes lasted 15 seconds: eight significant strikes landed from nineteen thrown and one knockdown.

Career statistical comparison for Matthieu Duclos and Modestino Rodrigues
MetricMatthieu DuclosModestino Rodrigues
Significant strikes landed / min3.93—
Significant strikes absorbed / min6.06—
Striking accuracy39%—
Striking defence50%—
Takedowns / 15 min0—
Takedown defence100%—
Submission attempts / 15 min0—
Knockdowns / 15 min1.23—

Submission attempts are not submission wins. Defence percentages depend on attempts faced. These are career profile averages, so no division rank is assigned. A dash is not a zero.

04

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Rodrigues's first-minute blitz against Duclos's counter left hook

Rodrigues has built his whole record in the opening minutes, and Duclos looked most uncomfortable in Paris when a blitz forced him backward. The first exchanges decide whether that pressure lands clean. If Duclos keeps his feet under him and times the rush with his counter left hook, the fight drifts toward the late rounds, where Rodrigues has never been.

The Deep Read

Duclos's best fight is the one he showed in Paris: walk forward behind the jab, use the body teep to keep the opponent honest, and pin him near the fence. Luis Felipe Dias found his best moments by doing the opposite, rushing in with hooks and forcing Duclos backward, where he landed big punches and a knee. The finish came from that same exchange. Duclos teeped the body, Dias rushed in behind a combination, and a short left hook over the top dropped him flat.

That is the central tension here: the blitz is both Duclos's main vulnerability and the setup for his best weapon. Rodrigues is a younger, more explosive version of the rush. He dropped Brandon Holmes with a right hook inside 12 seconds without taking a shot back, and six of his eight wins came inside two minutes. He also arrives from Duclos's own height with slightly longer arms, so his punches start further away than Dias's did and the counter window is shorter.

Duclos's problem is the damage he takes. Across his two fights at this level he has absorbed more significant strikes than he has landed, and both of his knockout losses came against opponents who brought the fight to him. His answer is composure under fire: in Paris he took the knee and the hook flurry and was still there to land the finishing punch late in the round.

If the opening minutes pass without a finish, the fight moves onto ground only Duclos has covered. He has finished two fighters in the last minute of the second round and gone the full distance twice, while Rodrigues has never fought beyond 6:09 and his only MMA fight in the last 15 months lasted 15 seconds. Neither man has a submission win, so the fight is very likely to be decided standing, or by strikes after a knockdown.

Path to Victory

Matthieu Duclos

Own the first two minutes with the jab and the body teep, circle off the fence instead of retreating straight back, and meet Rodrigues's rush with the counter left hook. If the fight survives the opening flurries, take it into the later rounds where only he has experience.

Why they win
01
A proven counter to the blitz

Duclos finished Luis Felipe Dias by baiting a rush with a body teep and landing a left hook over the top as the punches came in. Rodrigues's whole approach is to come forward early, which is the situation that punch was built for.

02
Fifteen-minute experience

Fourteen professional fights, two full-distance decisions and two knockouts in the last minute of the second round. Rodrigues has never been past 6:09 of a fight, so every minute Duclos survives moves the bout toward familiar ground for him and unknown ground for his opponent.

03
Leg length

The heights match, but Duclos has 45.5 inches of leg reach against 42. The teep that set up the Dias knockout and the knee that finished Thiago Hayne both work from that extra length.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Range

    Lead with the jab and body teep from the opening bell so Rodrigues has to cross distance to start his combinations.

  2. 2
    Exit

    When Rodrigues rushes, step off at an angle rather than backing straight toward the fence, and keep the left hook loaded for the moment his feet commit.

  3. 3
    Second half

    If the opening flurries pass, add knees in the clinch and body work to tax a fighter who has never fought beyond the seventh minute.

Path to Victory

Modestino Rodrigues

Pressure from the first second, deny Duclos the jab-and-teep phase, and catch him moving backward in a straight line with the right hand. Follow any knockdown immediately with ground strikes before Duclos can recover.

Why they win
01
First-minute knockout power

Eight knockouts in eight wins, six of them before the two-minute mark. He dropped Brandon Holmes with a right hook inside 12 seconds on the Contender Series and has won five straight, all by knockout.

02
No frame disadvantage

Duclos fought Dias from five inches above him. Rodrigues matches his height, has an inch more reach and is eight years younger, so Duclos cannot rely on size to control distance.

03
The look that troubled Duclos

In Paris, Dias landed his best punches and a knee by blitzing and forcing Duclos backward. Duclos has also been stopped twice by opponents who brought the fight to him.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Start fast

    Pressure from the first second, as against Holmes, before Duclos can establish the jab and teep.

  2. 2
    Straight shots

    Lead with straight punches down the middle rather than wide hooks, the type of entry Duclos countered to finish Dias.

  3. 3
    Finish

    Follow any knockdown immediately with ground strikes, the route that finished Virgilio Ailton.

Danger Zone

How Matthieu Duclos loses

  • Rodrigues forces him backward in a straight line in the first minute and lands the right hand before the counter is ready.

  • He absorbs several clean shots early, as he did against Dias, and this time the opponent's power is enough to end it.

Danger Zone

How Modestino Rodrigues loses

  • He rushes in with a wide combination and walks onto the same left hook counter that finished Dias.

  • The early flurries do not land, his pace drops after the first round, and Duclos takes over with the jab, teep and knees.

Conditional tactical scenario, not a statistical projection

Round 1: what to watch

Round 1: this is where Rodrigues's entire record lives. Watch the first time he forces Duclos backward. Whether Duclos circles off or retreats straight toward the fence decides whether the right hand or the counter hook lands first. This is the round most likely to produce a finish for either man.

Conditional tactical scenario, not a statistical projection

Round 2: what to watch

Round 2: if Rodrigues has not finished it, he passes the longest fight of his career early in this round. Watch his output and hand position as the round goes on, and whether his entries get wider and slower. Duclos's clinch knees and late-round finishing become more relevant, but he still has to avoid trading in the pocket with a fresh puncher.

Conditional tactical scenario, not a statistical projection

Round 3: what to watch

Round 3: only Duclos has been here before, twice. A Duclos lead on points becomes realistic if he banked the second round with the jab and teep, and Rodrigues would then need a late knockout rather than a close round won on activity. If Rodrigues is ahead, Duclos has to take more risk, which reopens the pocket exchanges that favour the younger man.

05

The Verdict

The matchup read, the betting market, and the swing factors

Editorial handicapping

Matthieu Duclos 46% · Modestino Rodrigues 54%

Subjective analyst estimates for the announced opponent and distance. These are not calibrated outputs from the prediction model. Method probabilities are portions of the overall outcome distribution, not percentages conditional on winning.

Modestino Rodrigues is estimated at 54%, almost entirely through an early knockout. All eight of his wins are knockouts, six before the two-minute mark, and pressure from the opening bell is the pattern that gave Matthieu Duclos the most trouble in his Paris debut. Duclos keeps a large knockout share of his own because the counter left hook that ended the Dias fight is the natural answer to that pressure.

The frame advantage Duclos usually fights behind does not exist in this pairing. Both men stand 6'3", Rodrigues has the slightly longer arms, and Duclos's only measurable edge is leg length for the teep and the knee. That pushes the fight toward the pocket exchanges where Rodrigues is most dangerous and where Duclos has been hurt before.

Inside-the-distance results take 72% because both men finish nearly everything they win, both have been stopped by strikes, and neither has a submission win. Decisions take 28%, tilted toward Duclos because he is the only one who has gone the full distance.

Rodrigues rises toward 60% if Duclos backs straight toward the fence under early pressure, as he did against Dias. He falls toward 45% if Duclos's jab and teep keep him from setting his feet in the first two minutes, because the fight then moves into minutes Rodrigues has never fought. Scenario range: Rodrigues 45–60%, Duclos 40–55%.

If you only read 2 things
1

Matthieu Duclos 46% / Modestino Rodrigues 54%. Modestino Rodrigues is the narrow editorial selection: his first-minute knockout power meets the exact situation, retreating under pressure, that troubled Duclos in Paris.

2

The fight probably turns on the first time Rodrigues forces Duclos backward. If Duclos lands the counter hook there, or survives into the second half of the fight, the edge swings to him.

Editorial outcome distribution · 100 percentage points

Each square represents one percentage point of the subjective editorial distribution. This is an illustration of the assigned probabilities, not a simulation or an observed result.

Matthieu Duclos · KO/TKO — 28%Matthieu Duclos · Decision — 16%Matthieu Duclos · Submission — 2%Modestino Rodrigues · KO/TKO — 40%Modestino Rodrigues · Decision — 12%Modestino Rodrigues · Submission — 2%

Each square = 1 editorial percentage point. Matthieu Duclos gold · Modestino Rodrigues orange · color opacity: 100% = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Matthieu Duclos win probability
0%
28%
16%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • The counter left hook that finished Dias is built for a forward-rushing opponent, and Rodrigues has been knocked out once before.

  • He has gone fifteen minutes twice and Rodrigues never has, so a jab-and-teep points win is a genuine path.

  • No submission wins in 14 fights; a choke after a knockdown scramble is the only realistic route.

Modestino Rodrigues win probability
0%
40%
12%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Eight knockouts in eight wins, six inside two minutes, against an opponent who absorbed more than he landed in his two fights at this level.

  • He has never fought past 6:09, so winning two rounds on activity is the least proven part of his game.

  • No submission wins; ground strikes after a knockdown are far likelier than a choke.

Editorial estimate vs market

Matthieu Duclos

Insufficient price data
Editorial win estimate
46%
Fair odds
+117
Reference quote
—
Fair decimal odds
2.17
Estimated EV
—
Edge vs no-vig market
—

Modestino Rodrigues

Insufficient price data
Editorial win estimate
54%
Fair odds
-117
Reference quote
—
Fair decimal odds
1.85
Estimated EV
—
Edge vs no-vig market
—

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash marks a price without a same-book pair to compare.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Quotes listed with a date but no time are treated as undated.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Matthieu Duclos

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 2.18 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Modestino Rodrigues

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 1.86 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Fair prices and expected value are arithmetic consequences of these subjective estimates. A positive calculation at an old quote is not a verified current opportunity.

Conviction
0
3/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Low conviction: the lean rests on one style pattern from Duclos's debut and a Rodrigues record built almost entirely inside the first two minutes. Lean: Modestino Rodrigues.

What backs the lean

  • Rodrigues's first-minute pressure is the look that troubled Duclos most in Paris, where Luis Felipe Dias landed his best shots by forcing him backward.

  • Duclos has been stopped twice by opponents who brought the fight to him, and absorbed 6.06 significant strikes per minute in his two fights at this level.

  • The height and reach edge Duclos usually fights behind is gone: Rodrigues is the same height with an inch more reach.

What limits it

  • Duclos's counter left hook already finished a blitzing Brazilian in the Octagon, and Rodrigues has been knocked out once himself.

  • Rodrigues has never fought beyond 6:09; Duclos has gone fifteen minutes twice and finished two fighters in the last minute of the second round.

  • The Contender Series win lasted 15 seconds against an opponent who never threw back, so it shows power but nothing about defence or recovery.

Final Assessment

Matthieu Duclos 46% / Modestino Rodrigues 54%. Modestino Rodrigues is the narrow editorial selection: his first-minute knockout power meets the exact situation, retreating under pressure, that troubled Duclos in Paris.

The fight probably turns on the first time Rodrigues forces Duclos backward. If Duclos lands the counter hook there, or survives into the second half of the fight, the edge swings to him.

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