UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues

UFC Sacramento at Golden 1 Center — Saturday, August 22, 2026. Five-round middleweight: Anthony Hernandez (15-3) vs. Gregory Rodrigues (19-6). Model lean ~67% Hernandez.

UFC Fight Night Hernandez vs Rodrigues official poster — Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, August 22, 2026
Saturday, August 22, 2026
Sacramento, California, United States
Golden 1 Center
⚡ Upcoming Event13 Fights
Main Card: Paramount+
Prelims: Paramount+
Start Time: 5:00 PM ET
Start Time by Timezone
Times are estimated; prelims start roughly two hours earlier. Subject to change.
ET
Eastern US/Canada
Main Card
5:00 PM
PT
Pacific US/Canada
Main Card
2:00 PM
BST
United Kingdom / Ireland
Main Card
10:00 PM
CET
Central Europe
Main Card
11:00 PM
AE
Abu Dhabi, UAE
Main Card
1:00 AM (Sun)
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Sacramento: Wrestling Volume Meets Power at Golden 1 Center

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues — Golden 1 Center, Sacramento — August 22, 2026

UFC Sacramento is a middleweight problem with a measurable answer: can elite wrestling volume break a durable power striker over five rounds at Golden 1 Center? Anthony Hernandez (15-3) averages 5.88 takedowns per 15 minutes — 2nd of 46 middleweights — and chains entries until the math wins. Gregory Rodrigues (19-6) answers with a 75% career takedown defense (corrected from an overstated 90%, independently confirmed by UFCStats), heavier hands, and a three-fight finishing streak capped by a Round-1 KO of Brunno Ferreira. That 75% TDD has almost never been stress-tested by a wrestler of Hernandez's volume. The co-main is a heavyweight collision: Serghei Spivac (18-6) vs. Vitor Petrino (14-2). Light heavyweight depth stays loud with Reinier de Ridder (21-4) vs. Roman Dolidze (15-5).

MMA Analytics' stacked ensemble currently leans Hernandez near 67% (Rodrigues 33%) — a wrestler-beats-technical-striker archetype that hits 64.6% in a 48-fight sample. Rodrigues stays live if he keeps the fight upright through the first ten minutes. The Paramount+ undercard adds Shamil Gaziev vs. Kennedy Nzechukwu, Haqparast–Padilla, Emmers–Douglas, Wint–Chatman, Barbosa–Kuse, and Young–Dorsainvil. Every bout below includes BetOnline odds, model probabilities, and a full breakdown.

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What is UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues?

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues is UFC Sacramento — a middleweight Fight Night on Saturday, August 22, 2026 at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California. The five-round main event pairs chain wrestler Anthony Hernandez (15-3), who averages 5.88 takedowns per 15 minutes (2nd of 46 middleweights), against knockout artist Gregory Rodrigues (19-6), who enters on a three-fight finishing streak after a Round-1 KO of Brunno Ferreira at UFC 326. The co-main is Serghei Spivac vs. Vitor Petrino at heavyweight, with Reinier de Ridder vs. Roman Dolidze adding light-heavyweight depth. MMA Analytics currently leans Hernandez at approximately 67% versus Rodrigues at 33%. The card streams on Paramount+ with the main card at 5:00 PM ET (2:00 PM PT).

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What is the matchup between Hernandez and Rodrigues?

Hernandez vs. Rodrigues is grappling volume against durable knockout power over five rounds in Sacramento. Hernandez's 5.88 takedowns per 15 minutes are built to tax the fence until the math wins; Rodrigues's 75% career takedown defense — independently confirmed by UFCStats and corrected from an overstated 90% — has almost never faced a wrestler attempting four-plus entries per round. The wrestler-versus-technical-striker archetype hits 64.6% (31-17 in 48 fights). MMA Analytics currently projects Hernandez around 67% (Rodrigues 33%) — a lean that shrinks if Rodrigues keeps the fight upright through the first ten minutes and lands the early knockout. Every fight below includes BetOnline odds, implied market prices, and a full breakdown.

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How to watch UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues and what time does it start?

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues — UFC Sacramento — takes place Saturday, August 22, 2026 at Golden 1 Center. Main card at 5:00 PM ET (2:00 PM PT local) on Paramount+. Prelims start roughly two hours earlier (about 3:00 PM ET / 12:00 PM PT), also on Paramount+. UK viewers should expect a 10:00 PM BST window; Central Europe is 11:00 PM CET. Because Sacramento is on Pacific Time, the in-arena main event is a mid-afternoon local start. Times are estimates and remain subject to UFC broadcast changes.

Main Event — Middleweight

Hernandez vs. Rodrigues

Anthony Hernandez (15-3) brings 5.88 takedowns per 15 minutes against Gregory Rodrigues (19-6), whose 75% career takedown defense has almost never been stress-tested by elite wrestling volume.

Co-Main — Heavyweight

Spivac vs. Petrino

Serghei Spivac (18-6) takes on Vitor Petrino (14-2) in the heavyweight co-main — a grappler-vs-power clash at 265.

Undercard Spotlight

de Ridder vs. Dolidze & Gaziev vs. Nzechukwu

Reinier de Ridder (21-4) meets Roman Dolidze (15-5) at light heavyweight, while Shamil Gaziev (14-3) meets Kennedy Nzechukwu (14-6-1) in another big-man clash.

Prospect Watch

Judice vs. Chaves

Unbeaten Jeisla Chaves (8-0) fights for just the second time in the UFC after a debut win in June 2026, taking on the more tested Carli Judice (6-2) at flyweight.

📊Analysis Reliability Framework

Our analytical model considers UFC experience as one of several factors for optimal predictions. While we can analyze any fight, fighters with 5+ UFC bouts provide more comprehensive data for our statistical modeling. This doesn't diminish the quality of our analysis for newer fighters - it's simply one criterion we factor into our confidence assessments.

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High Risk (**)

<3 UFC Bouts

Limited UFC data available. Analysis relies more heavily on external sources and pre-UFC performance patterns.

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Moderate Risk (*)

3-4 UFC Bouts

Meaningful UFC sample size with good analytical foundation. Reliable insights with solid confidence levels.

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Optimal Data

5+ UFC Bouts

Comprehensive statistical foundation enabling highest confidence analysis and predictive accuracy.

Note: All fights receive thorough analysis regardless of UFC experience levels. This framework simply helps calibrate confidence in our predictions.

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues Fights, Analytics & Predictions

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We display the best available odds for each fighter to maximize value. Preference is given to BetOnline when available; otherwise, we select the highest‑value line and show the sportsbook and implied probability (I.P %).

🏆 Main eventEstablished UFC sample (5+ bouts each)
Anthony Hernandez

Anthony Hernandez

15-3-0

Middleweight
5 Rounds

Model estimate

67%VS33%

Market Odds

……

Model win probability vs reference market odds

Gregory Rodrigues

Gregory Rodrigues

19-6-0

Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Uncertainty & price details

Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

View fight preview
Established UFC sample (5+ bouts each)
Serghei Spivac

Serghei Spivac

18-6-0

Heavyweight
3 Rounds

Model estimate

57%VS43%

Market Odds

……

Model win probability vs reference market odds

Vitor Petrino

Vitor Petrino

14-2-0

Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Uncertainty & price details

Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

View fight preview

Main Card

⭐ Co-MainEstablished UFC sample (5+ bouts each)
Reinier de Ridder

Reinier de Ridder

21-4-0

Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds

Model estimate

55%VS45%

Market Odds

……

Model win probability vs reference market odds

Roman Dolidze

Roman Dolidze

15-5-0

Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Uncertainty & price details

Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

View fight preview
Main CardDeveloping UFC sample (3–4 bouts)
MarQuel Mederos

MarQuel Mederos

11-1-1

Lightweight
3 Rounds

Model estimate

42%VS58%

Market Odds

……

Model win probability vs reference market odds

Mason Jones

Mason Jones

18-2-0

Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Uncertainty & price details

Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

View fight preview
Main CardLimited UFC sample (<3 bouts)
Carli Judice

Carli Judice

6-2-0

Women's Flyweight
3 Rounds

Model estimate

59%VS41%

Market Odds

……

Model win probability vs reference market odds

Jeisla Chaves

Jeisla Chaves

8-0-0

Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Uncertainty & price details

Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

View fight preview
Main CardLimited UFC sample (<3 bouts)
Anthony Wint

Anthony Wint

“Bow Down”

7-0-0

Heavyweight
3 Rounds

Model estimate

54%VS46%

Market Odds

……

Model win probability vs reference market odds

Terrance Chatman

Terrance Chatman

“The Answer”

5-1-0

Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Uncertainty & price details

Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

View fight preview

Prelims

PrelimsLimited UFC sample (<3 bouts)
Jamall Emmers

Jamall Emmers

22-8-0

Featherweight
3 Rounds

Model estimate

55%VS45%

Market Odds

……

Model win probability vs reference market odds

Lerryan Douglas

Lerryan Douglas

14-5-0

Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Uncertainty & price details

Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

View fight preview
PrelimsEstablished UFC sample (5+ bouts each)
Shamil Gaziev

Shamil Gaziev

14-3-0

Heavyweight
3 Rounds

Model estimate

43%VS57%

Market Odds

……

Model win probability vs reference market odds

Kennedy Nzechukwu

Kennedy Nzechukwu

14-6-1

Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Uncertainty & price details

Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

View fight preview
PrelimsEstablished UFC sample (5+ bouts each)
Nasrat Haqparast

Nasrat Haqparast

18-6-0

Lightweight
3 Rounds

Model estimate

45%VS55%

Market Odds

……

Model win probability vs reference market odds

Chris Padilla

Chris Padilla

17-6-1

Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Uncertainty & price details

Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

View fight preview
PrelimsLimited UFC sample (<3 bouts)
Márcio Barbosa

Márcio Barbosa

“Ticoto”

18-2-0

Featherweight
3 Rounds

Model estimate

70%VS30%

Market Odds

……

Model win probability vs reference market odds

Ryan Kuse

Ryan Kuse

“Third Street Savage”

9-2-0

Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Uncertainty & price details

Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

View fight preview
PrelimsLimited UFC sample (<3 bouts)
Gauge Young

Gauge Young

“Gee Money”

11-3-0

Lightweight
3 Rounds

Model estimate

66%VS34%

Market Odds

……

Model win probability vs reference market odds

Stan Dorsainvil

Stan Dorsainvil

“The Drill”

5-0-0

Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Uncertainty & price details

Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

View fight preview
PrelimsLimited UFC sample (<3 bouts)
Jackson McVey

Jackson McVey

7-2-0

Middleweight
3 Rounds

Model estimate

54%VS46%

Market Odds

……

Model win probability vs reference market odds

Wes Schultz

Wes Schultz

9-3-0

Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Uncertainty & price details

Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

View fight preview
PrelimsLimited UFC sample (<3 bouts)
Shanelle Dyer

Shanelle Dyer

7-1-0

Women's Strawweight
3 Rounds

Model estimate

59%VS41%

Market Odds

……

Model win probability vs reference market odds

Elise Reed

Elise Reed

8-5-0

Matchup preview. Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Uncertainty & price details

Styles, form and paths to victory are broken down on the fight page.

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

View fight preview

Model Probabilities vs Market Odds Summary

FightFighter AModel Prob AMarket Odds AImplied Prob AFighter BModel Prob BMarket Odds BImplied Prob B
Hernandez vs Rodrigues🟢Anthony Hernandez67%N/A—Gregory Rodrigues33%N/A—
Ridder vs Dolidze🟢Reinier de Ridder55%N/A—Roman Dolidze45%N/A—
Spivac vs Petrino🟢Serghei Spivac57%N/A—Vitor Petrino43%N/A—
Mederos vs Jones🟡MarQuel Mederos42%N/A—Mason Jones58%N/A—
Gaziev vs Nzechukwu🟢Shamil Gaziev43%N/A—Kennedy Nzechukwu57%N/A—
Haqparast vs Padilla🟢Nasrat Haqparast45%N/A—Chris Padilla55%N/A—

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