Reinier de Ridder vs Roman Dolidze
Light Heavyweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues
Saturday, August 22, 2026 • Golden 1 Center, Sacramento
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Reinier de Ridder
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Roman Dolidze
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Reinier de Ridder
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | Caio Borralho | L | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-10-18 | Brendan Allen | L | TKO (Corner Stoppage) (R4, 5:00) |
| 2025-07-26 | Robert Whittaker | W | Decision (Split) (R5, 5:00) |
| 2025-05-03 | Bo Nickal | W | TKO (Knee to Body) (R2, 1:53) |
| 2025-01-18 | Kevin Holland | W | Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) (R1, 3:31) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Roman Dolidze
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Christian Leroy Duncan | L | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-08-09 | Anthony Hernandez | L | Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) (R4, 2:45) |
| 2025-03-15 | Marvin Vettori | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R5, 5:00) |
| 2024-10-05 | Kevin Holland | W | KO/TKO (R1, 5:00) |
| 2024-06-29 | Anthony Smith | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (35.5 vs 22.7) and Grappling Composite (33.2 vs 36.8). Balances overall striking effectiveness with grappling ability to measure complete technical skills. On de Ridder's corrected, current UFC rate stats the two fighters are far closer than his career submission rate alone would suggest.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Reinier de Ridder Key Advantages
TD/15 of 2.56 (about 33% above the MW average) against Dolidze's 26% takedown defense still tilts the grappling exchanges toward de Ridder — but this is no longer the lopsided mismatch it once looked on paper. His UFC-wide takedown accuracy sits at just 10%, dragged down almost entirely by one fight (Caio Borralho, an elite defensive wrestler who stuffed him repeatedly); Dolidze's own defense is nowhere near that caliber. His 123-second R1 control average against finishable opposition shows the ceiling is real — the question is whether he can find entries against a bad-but-live defensive wrestler as reliably as he did against Nickal, Holland and Meerschaert.
Anthony Hernandez took Dolidze down and submitted him in the fourth round — and the co-main is happening on a card Hernandez headlines. de Ridder is a more decorated grappler than Hernandez: a former ONE two-division champion with 13 career submissions and a deep triangle/armbar/back-take arsenal, plus two extra inches of reach to finish with. The single most predictive data point in this analysis is that Dolidze's most recent stoppage loss is a live, recent demonstration of exactly what de Ridder does best — against a lesser version of the same problem.
At 6'4" with a 78" reach against 6'2"/76", de Ridder owns the frame for the first time in his recent stretch — the jab, the distance management, and the long limbs that make his submissions inescapable. His finishing window (avg fight time 7:23) covers the entire 3-round distance, and his submission-attempt rate actually rises into the third (0.67, "Late Round Sub Artist"). Crucially, the format neutralizes his one big liability: his documented fade (R3 output 41% of R1) and his lone deep-water stoppage (Allen, R4) are five-round problems that fall largely out of frame over three.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
The level change into the pocket meets a Dolidze uppercut or overhand — de Ridder's below-average 47% striking defense catches a clean one from a man with 8 career knockdowns and a front-loaded R1 power window (KD avg 0.31). His chin is not "Iron": he has been finished by strikes three times (twice by Malykhin, once by Allen), so one heavy shot in an early exchange — exactly as he closes distance for a takedown — inverts the fight. It is one of the main variables the grappling read cannot fully neutralize.
Dolidze's R1 leg kicks (33.3% investment) compromise the base, the double-legs stop landing, and the fight is dragged into a standing striking match — precisely the Borralho template that produced a 30-27 shutout in de Ridder's last outing. His striking defense and low volume lose rounds at range. And if he banks early control but can't finish, his R3 output collapse (6.3 sig average) lets Dolidze's steady motor and championship cardio steal the third and, in a close fight, the cards.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Establish the jab behind the two-inch reach edge to control distance without standing in the pocket where Dolidze's power lives — then feint the level change to freeze him and convert to the real entry. The takedown is not optional; it is the whole plan. The one thing de Ridder must NOT do is accept a low-tempo standing war at range on Dolidze's terms, the Borralho warning where his poor striking defense and low volume quietly lose rounds.
Attack the body and enter the clinch (R2 clinch% 27.8%), using 83.9% clinch accuracy and the body-lock game to walk Dolidze to the fence and initiate takedowns from a position he cannot defend at 26%. Bank control (123-second R1 average is the blueprint), avoid the scramble, and work the triangle and armbar against a grappler who was just tapped by a lesser one. Then close before R3: his finishing window is rounds 1–2, and urgency is a feature — not a risk — at this distance.
🚀 Roman Dolidze Key Advantages
Dolidze's R1 knockdown average (0.31), his 8 career knockdowns, and his 53% KO/TKO win rate are a real, repeatable path to victory — and they point at a genuine target. de Ridder's striking defense is a below-average 47% and he has been finished by strikes three times. Dolidze does not need to win a striking exchange on volume; he needs one clean, heavy shot in an early exchange while de Ridder is closing distance for a takedown, or simply to out-strike a fighter who is now a genuinely low-output striker himself (2.47 SLpM).
This is the one category that runs against the favorite: Dolidze maintains output into the deepest water (champ_output 113%, R5 his highest-volume round at 22.5 sig) while de Ridder fades hard (R3 output 41% of R1). He is also a powerfully built fighter at home in both middleweight and light heavyweight who has only ever been finished once, and his 33.3% R1 leg-kick game is takedown insurance — chop the base and the double-legs get expensive. If Dolidze survives the early grappling storm and forces a competitive, scrambly fight, the conditioning delta is entirely his, and de Ridder has shown he can be broken late.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
His 26% takedown defense is still a real liability against de Ridder's above-average 2.56 TD/15; he spends stretches of the fight on his back and the Hernandez loss repeats — this time against a more decorated career submission grappler in a shorter fight. If his 37.5% slow start meets de Ridder's 0%, the challenger is already banking early control while Dolidze is still calibrating, and a first-round back-take and choke ends it early in the Meerschaert/Holland mold.
de Ridder fights behind the longer jab and never stands still in the pocket; the KO equity dies on the vine because it never gets to plant and load. Worse, Dolidze tires himself throwing leg kicks and defending entries, and de Ridder's late-round sub hunt (0.67 attempts in R3) finds the finish exactly when Dolidze's guard is most fatigued. The one weapon that beats the model is neutralized the moment the fight stops being a stationary firefight.
📋 Likely Gameplan
His KO window is Round 1 (0.31 KD avg) and de Ridder's chin is his softest target — load up early, catch the level change, and test the chin before the grappling grind begins. Chop the lead leg relentlessly (R1 33.3% leg%) to wreck the base a level-changer needs and buy time in the phase he can win. He does not need to win the fight in the first five minutes; he needs to land the one shot before the takedowns start.
Defend the takedown at the fence, not in open space — use physical strength to break the body lock, frame off, and pop back to feet; every stuffed entry drains de Ridder's suspect tank. Keep the guillotine loaded (Sub/15 0.81) as a live counter to any lazy, head-low double. If Dolidze survives the first two rounds, de Ridder's output collapses (6.3 R3 sig) and Dolidze's steady motor and championship cardio flip the momentum — a late surge steals rounds and, potentially, the fight.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
🏟️Cage Dynamics
Strip the fight to its load-bearing beams and it is a single lever: above-average takedown volume (2.56 TD/15, +33% vs the MW average) against bottom-tier takedown defense (26%) — a real but no longer overwhelming phase advantage. de Ridder's grappling is not a situational weapon; it is a system — jab to freeze, body and clinch to enter, level change to complete, control to grind, long limbs to finish — but his UFC-wide takedown accuracy of just 10% (driven largely by one fight against elite-defense Caio Borralho) is a genuine caution flag about how cleanly that system executes against live resistance. The counter-weight is that Dolidze owns the one tool the system is vulnerable to on the way in: power, in the pocket, on a chin that has cracked. The fight is a close race between de Ridder reaching the mat and Dolidze landing the entry-interrupting bomb.
🎯Technical Breakdown
Both fighters benchmark against the same weighted formula, so the composites are directly comparable — and here they carry an important correction. de Ridder still leads the grappling column — TD/15 2.56 vs 0.99, Sub/15 0.55 vs 0.81 (now essentially even), TDDef 40% vs a bottom-tier 26% — but his UFC-wide 10% takedown accuracy is the worst raw number either fighter posts, and it drags his grappling composite down to 33.2 against Dolidze's 36.8: a virtual wash, not the blowout it once appeared. On the feet, Dolidze's striking composite (22.7) is still hurt by worst-in-division accuracy (42%), a metric that ignores his genuine one-shot power, while de Ridder's own striking composite (35.5) reflects a low-output, league-average-accuracy striker (49% StrAcc, 2.47 SLpM) with below-average defense (47%) — not the elite profile once displayed. The honest translation of the 34.4 vs 29.8 Technical Score: de Ridder holds a real but modest edge, not a lopsided one — his best skill still targets Dolidze's worst, but with far less margin for error than the raw takedown-vs- takedown-defense pairing alone would suggest.
🧩Key Battle Areas
Three hinges decide it. First, the takedown pairing — de Ridder's 2.56 landed takedowns per fifteen against a 26% defense still gives him the mechanical edge to drag this into the phase where his career finishing rate (13 of 21 wins by submission) matters most — the same problem Hernandez used to submit Dolidze, even though de Ridder's own UFC accuracy on entries (10%) is a real question mark. Second, the chin race — de Ridder's below-average 47% striking defense and thrice- cracked chin sit directly across from Dolidze's front-loaded R1 power (KD 0.31, 8 career knockdowns), so the opening five minutes are the highest-variance stretch of the fight. Third, the format — over 25 minutes Dolidze's proven cardio (72 vs 62) and de Ridder's documented late fade would loom even larger, but at 3 rounds de Ridder's fade is capped and his 7:23 finishing window covers the entire distance, a modest thumb on the scale toward the challenger.
🏁Final Prediction
The most likely single outcome is still Reinier de Ridder by Submission (22%) — his career-long finishing signature (13 of 21 wins) against a 26% takedown defense, on an opponent just submitted by a lesser grappler, keeps the tap his most repeatable path even with a shakier UFC-only completion rate. His decision (19%) captures the grind-it-out control win when the finish doesn't come, and his KO/TKO (14%) is ground-strike driven, the Nickal template, not a standing-KO projection. Dolidze's KO/TKO (26%) is now nearly as large as de Ridder's top category and the reason the favorite's conviction is capped hard: front-loaded power against a below-average 47% striking defense and a chin cracked three times is a genuine, highly repeatable threat. His decision (15%) needs the Borralho blueprint — now a more plausible path given de Ridder's own low output — and his submission (4%) is a thin guillotine sliver.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
GOOD VALUE
Model: 74% | Fair: -285
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 26% | Fair: +285
GOOD VALUE
Model: 66% | Fair: -194
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • de Ridder's edge is real but modest – A line priced as a lopsided favorite would overstate the corrected numbers; this reads closer to a coin flip leaning his way.
- • Underprices Dolidze's finishing equity – Front-loaded power against a now-average (not elite) de Ridder defensive profile is a live, repeatable threat.
- • Finish-friendly – Two sub-3 SLpM finishers who both end fights push inside-the-distance value even in a closer fight.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Reinier de Ridder
Grind-it-out control win — repeated takedowns bank rounds
Ground-strike TKO from top — the Nickal template
Largest single path — career submission rate vs 26% TDD
💥Outcome Distribution - Roman Dolidze
Best lane — front-loaded R1 power vs a cracked, hittable chin
The Borralho map — stuff takedowns, out-point late
Thin sliver — opportunistic guillotine on a lazy shot
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Roman Dolidze
- • First round: Highest KO equity — front-loaded power (0.31 KD avg).
- • Chop the base: R1 leg kicks (33.3%) make the double-legs expensive.
- • Guillotine loaded: Punish any lazy, head-low shot on the way in.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Reinier de Ridder
- • Reach the mat: 2.56 TD/15 against a 26% defense — a real, if less overwhelming, edge.
- • Control & finish: 123s R1 control, then the triangle/armbar arsenal.
- • Close before R3: the 7:23 finishing window covers the whole fight.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
A modest lean to the more complete grappler — genuinely close once his current UFC rate stats are corrected, and capped hard by Dolidze's front-loaded power
✅Supporting Factors
- • Above-average takedown rate (2.56 TD/15) vs a bottom-tier 26% takedown defense
- • The Hernandez blueprint — taken down and submitted, on film, on this card
- • Owns the frame for once: +2" height, +2" reach
- • Career-long submission signature (13 of 21 wins) even with a shaky UFC-only sample
- • 3-round format caps the late fade and covers his 7:23 window
⚠️Risk Factors
- • de Ridder's UFC-wide takedown accuracy is a startling 10% — his completion math is far less certain than it looks
- • Dolidze's front-loaded power vs a chin cracked three times (47% StrDef)
- • de Ridder is skidding, not surging — 0-2 in his last two
- • The cardio edge is Dolidze's (72 vs 62) if the takedowns get stuffed
- • On corrected rate stats, the composite scores are now nearly even (34.4 vs 29.8) — this is much closer to a coin flip than a mismatch
🏁Executive Summary
A note on the numbers first: de Ridder's rate stats on this page are pulled from his current, full UFC-only sample — including his two-fight skid — not just his 4-0 highlight-reel start. That sample shows a fighter with a real but modest takedown-volume edge (2.56 TD/15 vs the MW average of 1.93) and a startling 10% takedown accuracy dragged down largely by one fight against an elite defensive wrestler (Borralho). Across 100 simulations the recurring story is now closer than the raw grappling-mismatch framing once suggested: in roughly 55 of them, de Ridder weathers a dangerous opening exchange, closes the distance behind his jab and his length, drags Dolidze into deep water against a 26% takedown defense, and finishes him on the mat (submission 22, ground-strike TKO 14) or grinds out a control-heavy decision (19) — the Hernandez loss repeating against a more decorated career submission grappler. In the other 45, Dolidze's power and his own proven cardio do what a shakier, lower-output de Ridder cannot answer: he catches a level change with a heavy shot on a chin that has failed before and ends it early (26), executes the Borralho map — now a more plausible path — to steal a decision his cardio earns (15), or lands a rare guillotine trap (4). de Ridder is still the more complete grappler on paper and his best skill still targets Dolidze's worst one, but the corrected numbers make this a genuinely close fight, not a mismatch.
Prediction: Reinier de Ridder by Submission remains the single most likely path (22%), with his control-heavy decision (19%) and ground-strike KO/TKO (14%) behind it; Dolidze's KO/TKO (26%) is now nearly as large a single category as de Ridder's top path, and his 8 career knockdowns make it a genuine, ever-present threat. The grappler should still look to drag this to the floor and finish it there — but "The Caucasian" only needs one clean shot on a chin that has broken before, and de Ridder's own takedown entries are far less automatic than his highlight reel suggests.