HEAVYWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues
Anthony Wint — Heavyweight fighter

Anthony Wint

“Bow Down”
7W0L
Wrestle-Power Hybrid
…
VS
Terrance Chatman — Heavyweight fighter

Terrance Chatman

“The Answer”
5W1L
Pressure Striker
…

Two debutants, no rate stats, and eleven days' notice

HeavyweightGolden 1 Center, Sacramento, California, United StatesAugust 22, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon
01

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

This is a 🔴 HIGH-risk, web-only projection and it should be read as one. Anthony Wint is 7-0 with a finish rate of 86%, his last three wins took a combined 1:42, and he wrestled from age nine before playing D1 football at FIU and signing with the New York Jets. Terrance Chatman is 5-1, has never been finished in six professional fights, went twenty-five championship minutes in April without visibly fading, and is three inches taller and campaigns near the 265 lb ceiling. The fight has exactly one hard comparable and it does not flatter the favourite: both men beat Omar El-Sahlah (1-3-0), Wint by three-round split decision in March 2025, Chatman by knockout in twenty-one seconds in January 2026. We publish Wint 54% / Chatman 46% at conviction 4/10, and we say plainly that this is close to a coin flip.

Anthony Wint
Attribute
Terrance Chatman
30
Age
29
5'11" (71")
Height
+3" Chatman6'2" (74")
78"
Reach
Not found
42"
Leg Reach
Not found
Not found
Stance
Not found
Kill Cliff FC, Fort Lauderdale (Henri Hooft)
Team
4oz. Fight Club, Houston
UFC debut — 0 prior bouts
Octagon Debut
UFC debut — 0 prior bouts
39:37 across 7 fights
Career Cage Time
58:04 across 6 fights
11 days — DWCS, Aug 11, 2026
Turnaround
34 days — Fury FC 121, Jul 19, 2026
Explosive wrestle-power hybrid, ground-and-pound finisher
Fighting Style
Pressure striker — punches, leg kicks, damage accumulation

The smaller man has the longer arms, and the bigger man has never been measured. Wint gives up roughly three inches of height and a meaningful mass differential to a heavyweight who fights near the 265 lb limit, but he carries a 78" reach on a 71" frame — an unusually long span for his stature, the linebacker build. Chatman's reach is not found anywhere in the public record; at 6'2" in this division the typical span sits in the 76–79" band, so the reach battle is best treated as neutral-to-unknown rather than a Wint edge. UFC.com lists Wint at 71" while a Yahoo Sports profile lists him at 6'0", and that conflict is unresolved. The more consequential asymmetry is not physical but evidentiary: Wint has a documented wrestling foundation going back to age nine, and Chatman has no public takedown-defence data point in six professional fights. Nobody has tested it, which is not the same as it being good.

Venue Factor
Golden 1 Center is neutral ground — Homestead versus Houston, in Sacramento. The real venue effect here is the calendar, not the crowd. Wint walked out of the Contender Series on August 11 and walks into the Octagon on August 22: eleven days, a second weight cut, no camp block, and the emotional comedown from the biggest night of his career. His DWCS fight lasted 34 seconds, so the physical toll is close to nil — but recovery is not the same thing as preparation.
02

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Anthony Wint raises his arm in the cage after his 34-second Contender Series win over Matt Adams

Anthony Wint

Pro Record
7-0-0
UFC Record
UFC debut — 0 prior Octagon bouts
Streak
7-0 — last three wins in a combined 1:42
Finish Rate
86% (6 of 7 wins) — 5 KO/TKO, 1 submission
Avg Fight Time
5:40 (39:37 total)
Chin · UntestedSOS · RegionalWrestle-power finisher

A rocket launched off a short runway. He debuted professionally in April 2023 and needed 8:12 to stop Luis Alfonso Garcia Diaz at Titan FC 81. Since then the arc has only steepened: a rear-naked choke of Jawaski Bethly at 0:41, a third-round knockout of Emmanuel Verdier at 4:02, a 31-second stoppage of Miles Banks, a 37-second knockout of Jamahl Tatum to take the Fury FC heavyweight title in March 2026, and a 34-second ground-and-pound finish of Matt Adams on Contender Series that bought him this contract. His last three victories occupy 1:42 of combined cage time. The one blemish on the shape of it is his lone long win — a split decision, not a shutout, over a 1-3 opponent in March 2025 — and he has never been past fifteen minutes, or even past five more than twice.

Terrance Chatman throwing a right hand in a Fury Fighting Championship heavyweight bout

Terrance Chatman

Pro Record
5-1-0
UFC Record
UFC debut — 0 prior Octagon bouts
Streak
Won his last — TKO by leg kicks over Juan Torres (Fury FC 121)
Finish Rate
80% (4 of 5 wins) — all 4 by KO/TKO
Avg Fight Time
9:41 (58:04 total)
Chin · Never FinishedSOS · RegionalPressure striker

A grinder, and a flatter, longer arc. He turned pro in February 2025 and has fought six times in seventeen months, all under the Fury FC banner: a doctor stoppage of Erick Prieto, a second-round punching TKO of Steve Gurrola, a unanimous decision over Dwight Maters, a 21-second one-punch knockout of Omar El-Sahlah, a five-round split-decision loss to Myron Dennis in a main event he headlined, and a leg-kick TKO of Juan Torres at 3:32 last month. Four wins, four distinct finishing textures. He has been in more actual fighting than Wint — 58:04 to 39:37 — in one fewer bout, and he has never been finished, never been stopped late, and never been submitted. The caveat is the opposition: uniformly low-tier, with no notable graduates, so the durability is unfalsified rather than proven.

Anthony Wint
0 dealt · 0 absorbed
Knockdown Exchange
KD dealt vs absorbed
Terrance Chatman
0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Anthony Wintsignature weapons

First-Minute KnockoutJamahl Tatum 0:37, Miles Banks 0:31, Matt Adams 0:34 — three wins in a combined 1:42
×3
Top-Position Ground-and-PoundMatt Adams on DWCS — 11 of his 13 significant strikes landed on the mat, finish at 0:34
×1
Rear-Naked ChokeJawaski Bethly, R1 0:41, Double Down FC 1 — his one career submission win
×1

Terrance Chatmansignature weapons

One-Punch Counter KOOmar El-Sahlah in 21 seconds at Fury FC 113 — the same man Wint needed fifteen minutes to split-decision
×1
Compounding Leg KicksJuan Torres, R1 3:32, Fury FC 121 — a weapon aimed precisely at explosive lower-body mobility
×1
Accumulated-Damage TKOErick Prieto by doctor stoppage at R1 5:00 and Steve Gurrola by punches in the second
×2

Anthony Wint

W
Matt Adams
KO/TKO — Ground-and-pound
RR1 (0:34)
DWCS Season 10, Week 1 — Aug 11, 2026
W
Jamahl Tatum
KO/TKO
RR1 (0:37)
Fury FC 117 — HW title, Mar 15, 2026
W
Miles Banks
KO/TKO
RR1 (0:31)
Fury Challenger Series 15 — Nov 21, 2025
W
Emmanuel Verdier
KO/TKO
RR3 (4:02)
XFC Young Guns 9 & 10 — Jun 25, 2025
W
Omar El-Sahlah
Decision — Split
RR3 (5:00)
Fury FC 103 — Mar 23, 2025
Pattern

A rising curve with one soft spot in the middle of it. The three most recent wins took 0:34, 0:37 and 0:31 — a combined 1:42 across three fights, against progressively better opposition, culminating in a regional title and a UFC contract. Behind them sit the two fights that actually tell us about his capacity for work: a R3 4:02 knockout of Emmanuel Verdier, which proves his power is still functional in the fifteenth minute, and a split decision over Omar El-Sahlah, a 1-3 heavyweight he could not put away in fifteen minutes. His last outing was eleven days before this one.

Terrance Chatman

W
Juan Torres
TKO — Leg kicks, ref stoppage
RR1 (3:32)
Fury FC 121 — Jul 19, 2026
L
Myron Dennis
Decision — Split
RR5 (5:00)
Fury FC 118 — main event, Apr 12, 2026
W
Omar El-Sahlah
KO — Punches
RR1 (0:21)
Fury FC 113 — Jan 18, 2026
W
Dwight Maters
Decision — Unanimous
RR3 (5:00)
Fury FC 109 — Sep 7, 2025
W
Steve Gurrola
TKO — Punches
RR2 (4:11)
Fury FC 105 — Jun 22, 2025
Pattern

Consistent activity, no layoffs, and a genuine range of outcomes — a 21-second knockout, a fifteen-minute decision win, a twenty-five-minute decision loss and a leg-kick finish, all inside twelve months. The Dennis loss is the important entry twice over: it is the only blemish on his record, and it is the only 25-minute performance by either fighter in this matchup. He rebounded within three months with a first-round stoppage. His last five contain 53:04 of cage time; Wint's contain 30:44. He has fought 34 days before this one.

Anthony Wint

Win Methods
Wins by Round

Terrance Chatman

Win Methods
Wins by Round
Critical Insight
Both donuts cover the full professional career, not the UFC, because neither man has an Octagon bout to scope to. The arithmetic checks: Wint 5 + 1 + 1 = 7 wins, Chatman 4 + 0 + 1 = 5. Both are heavy finishers by rate — 86% and 80% — which sets a very high floor on inside-distance probability. But their finishing mechanisms differ. Wint's damage is compressed, athletic and often positional: four of his six finishes came before the 45-second mark and 11 of his 13 Contender Series significant strikes landed on the ground. Chatman's is distributed, cumulative and largely standing: a doctor stoppage on accumulated damage, a second-round punching TKO, a leg-kick stoppage and one 21-second knockout. In a three-round fight, compressed beats distributed more often than not — provided the compression happens.

Common Opponents

OpponentAnthonyTerrance
Omar El-Sahlah (1-3-0)W· Split Decision R3 (Fury FC 103, Mar 2025)W· KO by punches R1 0:21 (Fury FC 113, Jan 2026)
The only hard comparable in the fight, ten months apart at similar career stages in the same promotion — and the single most damaging data point on the favourite's résumé
03

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Striking

SLpM 25% · StrAcc 30% · StrDef 30% · SApM 15%

0
Anthonysmall sample
0
Terrancesmall sample

Reconstructed qualitatively, because three of the four inputs are unavailable for both men. Wint: 72% accuracy and 100% defence on a 34-second denominator, five KO/TKO wins, and striking that is positionally enabled — 85% of his DWCS significant strikes landed on the ground. Chatman: no published rates whatsoever, four knockouts across three distinct mechanisms, leg kicks that compound, and mass at 6'2" near 265 lbs in the pocket.

Grappling

TD/15 25% · TDAcc 25% · TDDef 30% · Sub/15 20%

0
Anthonysmall sample
0
Terrancesmall sample

The clearest edge on the page, and it is built on an absence rather than a number. Wint has a nine-year wrestling foundation, NFL-grade explosiveness, one career rear-naked choke and a Contender Series finish executed from top position. Chatman has zero submission wins, zero recorded attempts, no wrestling credential and no public takedown-defence data point of any kind in six professional fights.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

0.0
Anthonysmall sample
0
Terrancesmall sample

Striking is nearly level; the grappling void is what separates them technically. Eight and a half points, almost all of it in one unmeasured category.

Cardio

Fight time · pace · R3/R1 output · champ rounds

0
Anthonysmall sample
0
Terrancesmall sample

Chatman's clearest asset, worth roughly ten points in the other direction. He has 58:04 of career cage time and twenty-five championship minutes without visible collapse; Wint has 39:37 across seven fights, only twice past five minutes, and takes this on eleven days' notice with no camp block and a second weight cut. The Verdier stoppage at R3 4:02 is the one piece of genuine late-round evidence in Wint's favour.

Overall

(Technical + Cardio) / 2

0.0
Anthonysmall sample
0
Terrancesmall sample

A dead heat — 0.75 points apart, comfortably inside the noise band of two fighters with no reliable rate data, and pointing very slightly at the underdog. The composite framework does not separate this fight and we will not pretend it does. The 54/46 lean comes from four things the arithmetic does not capture: an unblemished record, a materially better camp, broader opposition, and a grappling asymmetry against a completely unmeasured takedown defence.

MetricAnthonyTerrance
Avg Fight Time5:409:41small sample
Total Cage Time39:37 (7 fights)58:04 (6 fights)small sample
Pace TierUnmeasured — 34-second UFC samplesmall sampleUnmeasured — no published ratessmall sample
Longest Fight15:00 — split-decision win25:00 — split-decision loss
Days Since Last Fight11 — fought Aug 11 on DWCS34 — fought Jul 19 at Fury FC 121

Archetype Base Rate

Wrestle-Power Finisher 54%46% Pressure Striker

No archetype base-rate row — neither fighter has a UFC bout · No historical archetype win-rate is applied, because there is no database row for either man to attach one to. The 54-46 lean is a qualitative override of our own composites, which finish 0.75 points in Chatman's favour: it rests on an unbeaten 7-0 record against a man already beaten by a modest regional heavyweight, a materially better camp at Kill Cliff FC under Henri Hooft, opposition spread across five promotions including a regional title and a Contender Series signing, and a grappling asymmetry aimed at a takedown defence nobody has ever tested. That is a defensible lean, not a confident one, which is why conviction is capped at four.

Anthony WintTerrance Chatman

Heavyweight

· 36 fighters
StatAnthonyAnthony rankDiv avgTerrance rankTerrance
SLpM22.94 — 34-sec sample, void—~3.4–3.8—Not found
Str Acc72% (13 of 18)—~48–52%—Not found
Str Def100% — 34-sec sample—~52–55%—Not found
SApMNot found—~3.4–3.8—Not found
KD Avg0.00 — display artifact—~0.6—Not found
TD/150.00 — contradicted by 85% ground strikes—~1.4–1.7—Not found
TD AccNot found—~38–42%—Not found
TD Def100% — 34-sec sample—~62–66%—Not found
Sub/150.00 — 1 career submission—~0.4—Not found — 0 career submissions
Career Cage Time39:37 (7 fights)———58:04 (6 fights)
Avg Fight Time5:40—~7:30–8:30—9:41
Prior UFC Bouts0———0
Statistical Verdict
There is almost no statistics in this statistical comparison, and the honest table above shows it — eleven "not found" cells and six figures marked void. What survives is a clean split of kinds of evidence. Every finishing-speed, athletic-pedigree, coaching and unbeaten-record marker points to Wint. Every size, durability, minutes-banked and shared-opponent marker points to Chatman. The one comparison both men actually share — fifteen minutes versus twenty-one seconds against Omar El-Sahlah — is the single worst-looking line on Wint's résumé, and it is seventeen months old.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

⚠ R1, R2, R3: single-fight sample for Anthony Wint

⚠ R1, R2, R3: single-fight sample for Terrance Chatman

Control Time per Round (sec)

Anthony Wint

  • No round-by-round row exists. v_fighter_rxr_complete and fighter_rxr_profile both return zero rows for Wint, because he has never fought in the UFC — there is no round-split striking, control-time or submission-attempt data in any form.
  • What the fight log alone says: his finishes cluster at R1, four of six, with outliers at R2 3:12 against Luis Alfonso Garcia Diaz and R3 4:02 against Emmanuel Verdier.
  • The single most useful positional data point is not a round split at all — 11 of his 13 significant strikes against Matt Adams landed on the ground, inside 34 seconds.

Terrance Chatman

  • No round-by-round row exists for Chatman either, and UFC.com publishes no statistics of any kind for him — this is the single largest data hole in the file.
  • From the fight log: his finishes are R1 three times (El-Sahlah 0:21, Torres 3:32, Prieto 5:00) and R2 once (Gurrola 4:11).
  • His two longest performances went the full fifteen minutes against Dwight Maters and the full twenty-five against Myron Dennis — the only deep-water evidence in the matchup, on either side.
Critical Insight
Wint's win equity is violently front-loaded — roughly half of it resolves in Round 1. Chatman's is back-loaded and rises every minute the fight stays vertical and unfinished. The eleven-day turnaround sharpens both effects: it costs Wint almost nothing in the first ninety seconds and progressively more thereafter. If the horn sounds to start Round 3 with both men upright, the underdog becomes the favourite.

Strike Targeting (career avg)

No UFC strike-target data for either fighter — nothing is estimated.

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage. Fighters without UFC samples are omitted rather than shown as 0%.

Range Profile — where the minutes go

Anthony · N/ATerrance · N/A

No UFC range-share data for either fighter — nothing is estimated.

Share of significant-strike volume by range from UFC career data. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.

04

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much
Open SpaceTerrance owns it

6'2" near the 265 ceiling with compounding leg kicks, against a 71" heavyweight whose standing engine has never been measured over more than 34 seconds

Pocket / ExchangesAnthony owns it

Five KO/TKO wins, four inside the opening minutes — but Chatman owns a 21-second one-punch knockout of the same shared opponent

ClinchTerrance owns it

Mass near 265 lbs is genuine passive resistance; Wint's own gameplan is to never let a bigger heavyweight collect him against the fence

GroundAnthony owns it

Wrestling from age nine, NFL-grade explosiveness and 11 of 13 DWCS strikes landed from top position, into no public takedown-defence data point of any kind

Path to Victory

Anthony Wint

The first two minutes. Four finishes inside 45 seconds, and a level change into a takedown defence that nobody in six professional fights has ever made him show.

Why they win
01
Compressed finishing power

Last three wins in a combined 1:42 — 0:31, 0:37 and 0:34. No heavyweight on this card resolves fights faster.

02
The only documented grappling base in the bout

Wrestling since age nine, by his own account his bread and butter, into a man with zero public takedown-defence evidence across six professional fights.

03
Elite athletic pedigree

D1 linebacker at FIU, an NFL active roster, a forced fumble against Green Bay. First-step explosiveness is the rarest commodity at heavyweight.

04
Camp quality gap

Kill Cliff FC under Henri Hooft, training beside Robbie Lawler and Impa Kasanganay, against a well-regarded but purely local Houston gym.

05
Unbeaten and unfinished

7-0, never dropped, never stopped, never behind on a card he needed. Chatman has already been beaten by a modest regional heavyweight over five rounds.

06
A ground-and-pound blueprint that just worked

11 of 13 significant strikes landed on the mat in the Matt Adams finish — at UFC-adjacent level, eleven days ago, in front of the people who signed him.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Attack immediately

    His profile is not a strategy that unfolds — it is a detonation. The first ninety seconds are worth more to him than the remaining thirteen and a half minutes combined.

  2. 2
    Mix the level change into the first exchange

    Make Chatman defend a shot before he has any read on the striking, and expose the one skill nobody in six professional fights has tested.

  3. 3
    Do not hunt the submission first

    If the takedown lands, the Adams finish is the template: posture and ground-and-pound, not a scramble into a choke against a 265 lb man.

  4. 4
    Use the 78-inch reach

    Keep the bigger man at the end of punches and never let a near-265 lb heavyweight collect him against the fence.

  5. 5
    Check the leg kicks from minute one

    His entire game is the first step, and Torres lost a leg to this man three weeks of preparation ago. Contingency: if the early burst misses and Round 1 ends upright, abandon the knockout hunt and wrestle in Round 2 — top position wins rounds against a man with no ground game, and the Garcia Diaz R2 3:12 finish proves he can build one.

Path to Victory

Terrance Chatman

Reach Round 3 upright. Twenty-five championship minutes on record against a man whose entire professional career adds up to 39:37 of cage time.

Why they win
01
The shared opponent

He knocked out Omar El-Sahlah in 21 seconds; Wint needed a three-round split decision against the same 1-3 man. It is the only direct comparable in the fight and it is emphatic.

02
Twenty-five minutes on record

Never finished in six professional fights, and the only man here who has gone championship distance. In a division where cardio collapses decide fights, that is the most valuable line on his sheet.

03
Size

Three inches of height and a frame that campaigns near the 265 lb ceiling, against a heavyweight repeatedly described as undersized for the division.

04
Leg kicks

The Juan Torres stoppage at 3:32 shows a compounding weapon aimed precisely at Wint's most important attribute: explosive lower-body mobility.

05
Four distinct finishing mechanisms

A doctor stoppage on accumulated damage, a second-round punching TKO, a one-punch knockout and a leg-kick TKO. He is not a one-trick knockout artist.

06
The eleven-day clock

Wint fought on August 11 with no camp block, a second weight cut, cross-country travel and the adrenal comedown from the biggest night of his career behind him.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Survive the first two minutes

    Nothing else on the list matters until that is done. Hands high, chin tucked, no early trading on Wint's terms.

  2. 2
    Establish the jab and the range immediately

    Force the smaller man to travel, and make every entry cost something on the way in.

  3. 3
    Start the leg kicks early and keep them coming

    They are the highest-leverage weapon in the fight and they compound exactly across the rounds where Wint's data is thinnest.

  4. 4
    Sprawl and frame at the first level change

    If taken down, wall-walk immediately rather than accepting bottom position against a linebacker — the wall-walk is worth more than the guard here.

  5. 5
    Push the pace from the middle of Round 2

    Drag a man with 39 minutes of total career cage time into the twelfth, thirteenth and fourteenth minute. Contingency: if he is hurt early, clinch and hold — his mass is his best defensive asset, and Wint has never had to solve a heavyweight who simply refuses to be separated.

Danger Zone

How Anthony Wint loses

  • He rushes, Chatman times the entry, and the El-Sahlah 21-second pattern repeats in the other direction — the smaller man walking onto a 265 lb counter.

  • The opening burst misses, the leg kicks land, and by the middle of Round 2 the explosiveness that defines him is gone, leaving a short heavyweight boxing a bigger one.

  • The eleven days catch up: a Round-3 fade in front of a national audience against a man who has already proven he can work for twenty-five minutes.

Danger Zone

How Terrance Chatman loses

  • He never gets to use any of it — Wint closes distance in the first thirty seconds, lands the takedown or the overhand, and the fight is over before the size advantage is relevant.

  • His unmeasured takedown defence turns out to be exactly as bad as the absence of evidence suggests, and he spends six minutes underneath a linebacker.

  • He respects the power too much, cedes the centre for two rounds, and loses a decision he was physically equipped to win.

The calendar, not the crowd

The Eleven-Day Clock

Wint fought Matt Adams on August 11, 2026 and fights Terrance Chatman on August 22, with the booking reported roughly nine days out. The mitigation is unusually strong — the DWCS bout lasted 34 seconds and he absorbed 0 of 18 attempted strikes on record — so there is essentially no accumulated damage. The costs are structural: no sparring block, no game-plan installation, a second weight cut inside two weeks, cross-country travel, and the psychological letdown that follows the most important night of a fighter's career. We have priced it as a cardio penalty and as a widening of Chatman's Round-3 branches, not as a first-round penalty at all.

11
days between professional heavyweight fights
The only hard comparable

The El-Sahlah Split

Omar El-Sahlah is 1-3-0. In March 2025 he took Anthony Wint to a three-round split decision at Fury FC 103. In January 2026 he was knocked out by Terrance Chatman with punches in 21 seconds at Fury FC 113. Similar career stages, ten months apart, same promotion, same opponent, wildly different results. We have not discounted it away. What we have applied is a staleness adjustment: the Wint who could not finish El-Sahlah has since produced a third-round knockout of Verdier, a 21-second finish of Banks, a 37-second title-winning knockout of Tatum and a 34-second Contender Series finish of Adams.

0:21 vs 15:00
Chatman's knockout against Wint's split decision
Where the model is inferring, not measuring

Two Unmeasured Chins and One Unmeasured Sprawl

Three of the most decision-relevant attributes in this fight have no public data at all. Wint's chin has never been tested because he has never lost and has only twice been past five minutes. Chatman's is unfalsified across six fights but has never met power of this class. And Chatman's takedown defence does not appear anywhere in the record — not a stat, not a credential, not a fight description. When a wrestler with nine years of foundation meets an opponent whose ground game is a complete blank, the correct prior is that the blank is a weakness. That single asymmetry is the largest contributor to our lean, and it is an inference, not a measurement.

The softest of the four tiebreakers

Strength of Schedule and the Camp Gap

Neither man has faced a UFC-caliber opponent and both slates are thin, but they are thin in different ways. Chatman's six bouts were all contested under one Houston promotion against opposition that has produced no notable graduates, and his one step up in class ended in a loss. Wint's seven span five promotions, include a regional heavyweight title win over a 6-3 opponent, and culminate in a Contender Series main event the UFC watched before signing him. Layer on Kill Cliff FC under Henri Hooft against a purely local gym and the developmental gradient runs one way.

The structural fork

Compressed Beats Distributed

Wint has finished six of seven opponents, four of them before the two-minute mark, and has never been asked a hard question. Chatman has been asked exactly one hard question — twenty-five minutes with Myron Dennis — and answered it well enough to lose a split. Wint has never fought anyone who did not break; Chatman has never broken. Three rounds is short enough to favour the first profile and long enough to keep the second alive.

The Five-Round Clock

Anthony Wint danger windowTerrance Chatman danger windowNeutral / contested
R1 · 0:00–5:00Wint's detonation window

The highest-variance round in the fight and the single largest bucket in our simulation — roughly 30 of 100 outcomes finish here. Wint has ended four fights before the 45-second mark; Chatman has ended one in twenty-one seconds. Both men can lose this fight in the first minute.

Critical Insight
The fight has an inverted clock. Wint's chances peak in the opening ninety seconds and decay with every minute the fight stays vertical; Chatman's accrue steadily and peak late. The eleven-day turnaround steepens both curves. If the horn sounds to start Round 3 with both men upright, the underdog becomes the favourite.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

05

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things
1

Both men are UFC debutants with zero Octagon bouts, no usable rate line and no database row anywhere on this site. This is a 🔴 HIGH-risk, web-sourced inference build, published at conviction 4/10.

2

The only hard comparable points at the underdog: Chatman knocked out Omar El-Sahlah in 21 seconds; Wint needed a three-round split decision over the same 1-3 fighter. Against that sit Wint's 7-0 record, his last three wins in a combined 1:42, and a nine-year wrestling base aimed at a takedown defence nobody has ever tested.

3

Model: Anthony Wint 54% / Terrance Chatman 46%. Our own composites finish 57.25 to 58 in Chatman's favour, and the lean overrides them on qualitative grounds — hold it loosely, and do not fade the underdog at plus money.

100 Simulated Fights

Wint Decision — 11%Wint Submission — 9%Wint KO/TKO — 34%Chatman KO/TKO — 28%Chatman Decision — 15%Chatman Submission — 3%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. Anthony Wint gold · Terrance Chatman orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

The first-90-seconds detonation rate

Four career finishes inside 45 seconds, a title won in 37 seconds and a Contender Series contract earned in 34. Wint's KO bucket is 34 of 100 and close to half of it resolves before the ninety-second mark — the largest single outcome on the page.

Chatman's unmeasured takedown defence

The largest single uncertainty in the model. Nobody in six professional fights appears to have made him defend a shot, there is no wrestling credential in any source, and the model treats an unmeasured sprawl against a nine-year wrestling base as a liability by default. It is also the softest inference here, and the reason conviction is capped at four.

Counter equity on the entry

Chatman's 28% knockout share is deliberately close behind Wint's 34%. He is the bigger man, he owns a 21-second knockout of the one opponent they share, and the El-Sahlah pattern is exactly the pattern a rushing opponent walks into.

The eleven-day turnaround

Near-zero cost in Round 1 — the DWCS bout lasted 34 seconds with no damage absorbed — and a rising cost through Rounds 2 and 3. Priced as a cardio penalty of roughly four points and as wider Round-3 branches for Chatman, not as a first-round penalty.

Deep-water asymmetry and the heavyweight base rate

Twenty-five proven minutes against fifteen minutes once, seventeen months ago, in a division where roughly two-thirds of bouts end inside the distance and both men finish at 80%-plus. That combination is why the distance bucket is only 26 and why what remains of it leans Chatman.

Fight Scripts

0%
of simulations

The Detonation

The opening burst lands clean and the Tatum-Banks-Adams pattern repeats: an overhand on the entry, or a level change straight into top position and ground-and-pound. Wint's single most probable path, and close to half of it resolves inside the first ninety seconds.

Scripted outcomes for Anthony Wint vs Terrance Chatman — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Anthony Wint win probability
0%
34%
11%
9%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • The largest single bucket on the page and the spine of the lean — four finishes inside 45 seconds, a title-winning 37-second knockout and a Contender Series finish in 34, all landing in the division with the sport's highest knockdown rate.

  • Eleven points, and the analysis says to avoid it outright as a bet. He has exactly one career decision win and it was a split over a 1-3 opponent; a decision here means fifteen minutes against the only man in the fight with twenty-five on record.

  • Nine points — a real wrestling base and one career rear-naked choke against an opponent with zero recorded submission defence. The highest-leverage inference in the model, and the softest.

Terrance Chatman win probability
0%
28%
15%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Deliberately close behind Wint's 34. He is the bigger man, he owns a 21-second knockout of the shared opponent, and his leg kicks give him a finishing path that grows rather than shrinks as the fight ages.

  • His single most likely individual path and the largest decision bucket in the fight: he has the only twenty-five-minute performance here, and Wint has been to fifteen minutes exactly once.

  • Three points, a token flier only — zero career submissions and zero recorded submission attempts in six professional fights. These are scramble outcomes, not a hunted path.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round
R1
Anthony
R2
Terrance
R3
Terrance
29-28 Chatman
Wint takes the opening round on aggression, the leg kicks take the last two
The most likely card in a fight that reaches them
29-28 Wint
An early knockdown or a takedown round, plus a competitive third
His only realistic path to the judges — one career decision, and it was a split
30-27 Chatman
The burst misses and never comes back
Live if the eleven days show early

Moneyline

Anthony Wint
Not posted
Terrance Chatman
Not posted

No sportsbook has published a line on this bout and none is invented here. The model's fair prices from the 54/46 split are Anthony Wint −117 and Terrance Chatman +117. Live odds appear in the hero above once the books post the Sacramento card.

Props: model vs market

PropOddsImplied %Model %FairEdgeVerdict
Best Value
The props table is empty because no market exists, so the numbers below are our model's percentages and the fair prices they imply, not a book's prices. Fight does NOT go the distance is the structural chalk and the highest-confidence line on the page at 74% (fair −285) — two men with a combined ten finishes in thirteen professional fights, in the division that ends fights fastest, over three rounds. The genuine value lean is Terrance Chatman as a live underdog: an unbeaten record and a highlight-reel signing tend to be overweighted relative to the two things that actually distinguish these fighters, the shared-opponent gap against Omar El-Sahlah and an eleven-day turnaround. If Chatman is available meaningfully above our +117 fair price, he is the side to take. Our other model prices: Wint inside the distance 43% (+133), Chatman inside the distance 31% (+223), fight ends in Round 1 ~30% (+233), Round 1 or 2 ~52% (−108). Avoid Wint by decision at 11% (+809) entirely.
Conviction
0
4/10

Two UFC debutants with zero Octagon bouts between them, no rate statistics for either man, eleven "not found" cells in the comparison table, composite scores that finish 0.75 points apart in the underdog's favour, and the only hard shared-opponent comparable pointing away from our pick. This is a defensible lean built on inference, not a confident read built on data. Lean: Anthony Wint.

What backs the lean

  • Compressed, repeatable finishing — last three wins in a combined 1:42, including a title win in 37 seconds and a Contender Series finish in 34.

  • The only documented grappling base in the fight, aimed at an opponent with no takedown-defence data point of any kind in six professional bouts.

  • 7-0 with zero losses and zero finishes against him, versus an opponent already beaten by a modest regional heavyweight.

  • NFL-grade explosiveness and a materially stronger training environment at Kill Cliff FC under Henri Hooft.

  • Broader opposition across five promotions, a regional title, and a Contender Series signing the UFC acted on within days.

  • The Verdier knockout at R3 4:02 proves his power is still functional in the fifteenth minute — his late equity is not zero.

What limits it

  • The El-Sahlah comparable: a 21-second knockout against Wint's three-round split decision over the same 1-3 fighter.

  • Never finished in six fights, with twenty-five championship minutes banked — the only deep-water proof in the matchup.

  • Three inches of height and a near-265 lb frame against a heavyweight widely described as undersized.

  • Leg kicks that attack the exact attribute Wint's entire game depends on, from a man who stopped Juan Torres with them last month.

  • Wint's eleven-day turnaround — no camp, a second weight cut, a career-peak comedown, and rising cost in every round after the first.

  • Our own composite scores favour Chatman, 58 to 57.25; the lean overrides them on qualitative grounds and should be held loosely.

Final Assessment

In roughly 54 of 100 simulations, Anthony "Bow Down" Wint ends this before it becomes a fight — most often with the opening detonation that has defined his last four appearances (34% KO/TKO, and close to half of that resolving inside the first ninety seconds), sometimes by finding the takedown against an opponent who has never been asked to defend one and finishing from the top (9% submission, plus a share of the ground-and-pound stoppages), and occasionally by converting to wrestling in Round 2 and riding control time to a card he has almost no career template for (11% decision). Every one of those paths depends on the same thing: the first two minutes belonging to him.

In the other 46, Terrance "The Answer" Chatman survives the storm and the fight becomes the one he is built for — the bigger man chopping the leg out from under an explosive athlete until the mobility goes and the stoppage follows (28% KO/TKO), or simply outworking a fighter with 39 minutes of total professional cage time across the twelfth, thirteenth and fourteenth minute and taking it on the cards (15% decision), with a token scramble submission behind it (3%). He knocked out the one man they have both faced in twenty-one seconds, he has been twenty-five minutes without breaking, and he is walking in against someone who fought eleven days ago.

The data gives Wint the finishing speed, the athletic pedigree, the camp, the unbeaten record and the only real wrestling in the building; it gives Chatman the size, the durability, the minutes, the leg kicks and the far better result against their shared opponent. Our composites cannot separate them and we will not pretend they can. On August 22 at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento we take Anthony Wint narrowly and early — and we will not fade Terrance Chatman at plus money, because if this fight is still standing when Round 3 begins, the underdog is the favourite.

Back to UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues Fight Card
Skip to main content
Use Tab to navigate through elements, Enter to activate buttons and links.