LIGHTWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues
Gauge Young — Lightweight fighter

Gauge Young

“Gee Money”
11W3L
Distance Volume Striker
…
VS
Stan Dorsainvil — Lightweight fighter

Stan Dorsainvil

“The Drill”
5W0L
Pressure Grappler
…

Sixty measured minutes against five regional fights

LightweightGolden 1 Center, Sacramento, California, United StatesAugust 22, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon
01

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

An asymmetric data build, and the asymmetry is the story. Gauge Young lands 6.32 significant strikes per minute against a 4.51 lightweight baseline, defends 77% of takedowns, and has now reached the final horn in all four of his UFC-run appearances. Stan Dorsainvil is 5-0 with three submission wins and has never fought a second of Octagon time — a short-notice replacement for the injured Kody Steele with no rate line, no round profile and no measurable statistic of any kind. Young's own round log shows him losing the first five minutes and winning the last five; Dorsainvil's finishing résumé is either an early submission or a third-round grinding collapse.

Gauge Young
Attribute
Stan Dorsainvil
26
Age
26 (reported)
5'9"
Height
+1" Dorsainvil5'10"
70"
Reach
Not published
38"
Leg Reach
Not published
Not published
Stance
Not published
Ignite Jiu Jitsu & MMA, Sedalia MO
Team
Christian Carvalho BJJ-MMA, Greenacres FL
Apr 26, 2025 — Evan Elder
Octagon Debut
This fight — 0 UFC bouts, 0 minutes
Distance volume striker — 94% of UFC strikes landed standing
Fighting Style
Pressure grappler — fence, chain takedowns, back-take, mount

There is no size story here: an inch of height at most, and Dorsainvil's reach is genuinely unpublished rather than even. What the tape shows is two near-identical frames used for opposite purposes. 355 of Young's 379 UFC significant strikes — 94% — landed at standing range, with 17 in the clinch (4%) and 7 on the ground (2%): a pure distance operator who has almost never chosen the phone booth. Dorsainvil's five wins all run through the fence and the mat — a triangle, a first-round submission, a guillotine and a third-round ground-and-pound TKO from mount. The one flag worth pricing is that his most recent bout was at a 160-pound catchweight; this is his first 155 weigh-in in over twenty-one months, taken on short notice.

Venue Factor
Golden 1 Center is neutral ground and this is the eleventh bout on a thirteen-fight Paramount+ card — no crowd equity, no main-card pacing. What the slot guarantees is fifteen minutes maximum, and fifteen is precisely the number that separates these profiles: Young has reached the final horn in all four of his UFC-run appearances; Dorsainvil has reached it once in five fights.
02

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Gauge Young landing a straight punch during a cage fight

Gauge Young

Pro Record
11-3-0
UFC Record
2-1 in the Octagon (4 UFC-run bouts including Contender Series)
Streak
Won his last two — Maheshate (Aug 2025) and Thiago Moisés (Apr 2026)
Finish Rate
64% career (7 of 11 wins) — 0% in UFC-run bouts
Avg Fight Time
15:00 (UFC-run)
Chin · IronSOS · UFC-caliberDistance volume striker

His career splits cleanly in two. On the FAC circuit in Missouri he was a wrecking ball — five first-round finishes, TKOs of David Evans (1:46), Demagio Smith (1:27) and Brexton Everett (2:41), a Manny Muro stoppage at 0:55 of the second and a left hook that ended Eric Grant at 0:11, plus an arm-triangle over Cliff Wright. Since stepping onto UFC-run cards in September 2024 the record reads four fights, four full fifteens, zero finishes. That is not a decline — his output rose across the run — but it is the standard signal of a finisher meeting opponents who do not break. He lost his Octagon debut to Evan Elder 27-30 across the board, then flipped the ledger against Maheshate, then survived Thiago Moisés' chain-wrestling to take a split decision in April. Never knocked out in fourteen professional fights; his only stoppage defeat is a 2022 armbar.

Stan Dorsainvil with his corner team in the cage after a win

Stan Dorsainvil

Pro Record
5-0-0
UFC Record
Debut — 0 bouts, 0 minutes
Streak
Perfect — five straight, most recently Dan Holt at LFA 233 (May 22, 2026)
Finish Rate
80% (4 of 5 wins)
Avg Fight Time
Not published — two R1 finishes, one R3 TKO, one full-distance UD
Chin · UntestedSOS · RegionalPressure grappler

The same arc as Young at an earlier stage, and without the proof. Five professional fights across three years and four months, with an eighteen-month gap between Peak Fighting 40 and LFA 233: a first-round submission of Hernandez Banks at 2:48, a guillotine on João Guerra at exactly 1:00 of the first at the XFC Detroit Grand Prix, a 30-27 shutout of Cedric Katambwa at LFA 188, a second guillotine on Johnny Smith at 3:34 of the first, and then the performance that got him here — a full-fight positional clinic against an undefeated Dan Holt, fenced, taken down, back-taken, mounted and finished with ground-and-pound at 4:06 of the third. He works as a Muay Thai coach at his gym and yet not one of his five wins came from a standing strike. He arrives on short notice for the injured Kody Steele, three months after his only bout in twenty-one months, cutting to 155 for the first time since 2024.

Gauge Young
0 dealt · 0 absorbed
Knockdown Exchange
KD dealt vs absorbed
Stan Dorsainvil
0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Gauge Youngsignature weapons

Regional First-Round TKODavid Evans 1:46, Demagio Smith 1:27, Brexton Everett 2:41 and two more on the FAC circuit — five of his seven career finishes ended in round one, and not one of them happened in the UFC
×5
Left HookEric Grant, 0:11 of round two at FAC 27 — the fastest of his six career knockouts and his last finish of any kind
×1
Arm-TriangleCliff Wright, R1 3:14 — his only career submission, and the last one he has attempted; Sub/15 reads 0.00 across 60 UFC-run minutes
×1

Stan Dorsainvilsignature weapons

GuillotineJohnny Smith R1 3:34 at Peak Fighting 40 and João Guerra at exactly 1:00 of the first at XFC Detroit — two of his five professional wins by the same choke, and the sharpest early danger in this fight against a man with 0.00 submission attempts per fifteen minutes
×2
Back-Take to Mount Ground-and-PoundDan Holt, R3 4:06 at LFA 233 — fence, takedown, back, mount, sustained for most of three rounds against an undefeated opponent
×1
Triangle ChokeShane Mistretta, third round, for the vacant Rise of a Warrior lightweight title in April 2022 — an amateur bout, carried outside his 5-0 professional record
×1

Gauge Young

W
Thiago Moisés
Decision — Split (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
RR3
UFC Fight Night, Winnipeg — Apr 18, 2026
W
Maheshate
Decision — Unanimous (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
RR3
UFC FN: Walker vs. Zhang — Aug 23, 2025
L
Evan Elder
Decision — Unanimous (27-30 × 3)
RR3
UFC FN: Machado Garry vs. Prates — Apr 26, 2025 (UFC debut)
W
Eric Grant
TKO — Left hook
RR2 (0:11)
FAC 27 — Dec 6, 2024
L
Quillan Salkilld
Decision — Unanimous
RR3
Contender Series — Sep 3, 2024
Pattern

Four consecutive fifteen-minute UFC-run fights with a clean upward slope inside them. The Elder debut was a shutout in which he was outlanded 115-81 in significant strikes. Against Maheshate he flipped the ledger — 112 landed to 66 absorbed, three takedowns, 3:51 of control. Against Moisés he survived early chain-wrestling and elbows, then denied a number of takedowns from the pressuring Moisés in round two and led the exchanges thereafter. It was a genuine split and the public argued about it, but the trajectory is unmistakable: better in his fourth UFC-run bout than his first, and better in the third round than the first.

Stan Dorsainvil

W
Dan Holt
TKO — Ground-and-pound from mount
RR3 (4:06)
LFA 233 — May 22, 2026 (160 catchweight)
W
Johnny Smith
Submission — Guillotine
RR1 (3:34)
Peak Fighting 40 — Nov 16, 2024
W
Cedric Katambwa
Decision — Unanimous (30-27 × 3)
RR3
LFA 188 — Jul 12, 2024
W
João Guerra
Submission — Guillotine
RR1 (1:00)
XFC: Detroit Grand Prix — Jun 2, 2023
W
Hernandez Banks
Submission
RR1 (2:48)
AFL: Invincible — Jan 20, 2023
Pattern

This is not a last-five table, it is his entire professional career. Five fights across four years and one month, with an eighteen-month gap between Peak Fighting 40 and LFA 233. He has never fought twice in a calendar quarter, and Sacramento arrives three months after his last bout, on short notice, against a UFC-tenured opponent. The Holt performance is why he is here and it is genuinely impressive — a positional clinic against an undefeated opponent, finished from mount with under a minute left. It is also his only appearance in twenty-one months. A scheduled bout with Shaheen Santana at Liberty Fight League 1 in April 2026 did not take place; the 5-0 count is confirmed by LFA's own reporting that the Holt win lifted his record to 5-0.

Gauge Young

Win Methods
Wins by Round

Stan Dorsainvil

Win Methods
Wins by Round
Critical Insight
Put the method tables side by side and the fight writes itself. Young has attempted zero submissions in 60 UFC-run minutes and has been submitted once; Dorsainvil has won 60% of his fights by submission and has finished nobody with a punch on the feet. Note also where the rounds sit: seven of Young's eleven wins ended inside two rounds and none of them happened in the UFC, while Dorsainvil's five wins are split between the opening four minutes and the closing minute of the third. Whoever imposes their phase wins — Young at distance for fifteen minutes, or Dorsainvil on the fence and on top.

Common Opponents

OpponentGaugeStan
Thiago Moisés (grappling proxy)W· SD3 (Apr 18, 2026)—(the puzzle Dorsainvil has to solve)
A 19-9 American Top Team lightweight with seven career submissions, a 1.14 Sub/15 rate and 1.31 takedowns per fifteen minutes chain-wrestled Young down in round one, tied him up and elbowed him — and then lost the fight. Young's career takedown defence rose from 72% to 77% across those fifteen minutes.
Quillan Salkilld (wrestling proxy)L· UD3 (Sep 3, 2024, Contender Series)—(blueprint for Dorsainvil)
The one man to out-wrestle Young on a UFC-run card carried a career 7.77 takedowns per fifteen minutes. Young and Dorsainvil have never met and share no common opponents anywhere in either résumé — there is no shared reference point to triangulate with.
03

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Striking

SLpM 25% · StrAcc 30% · StrDef 30% · SApM 15%

0
Gauge
0
Stansmall sample

Young: 6.32 landed per minute against a 4.51 baseline, 52% accuracy against 47.77%, and the clearest hole in his game — 49% striking defence against a 52.35% divisional average, with 5.12 absorbed per minute against 4.15. Dorsainvil's four striking columns are all not found; 46 is set below division average because nothing justifies more, and zero of his five wins came from a standing strike.

Grappling

TD/15 25% · TDAcc 25% · TDDef 30% · Sub/15 20%

0
Gauge
0
Stansmall sample

Young shoots almost nothing — 0.75 takedowns per fifteen minutes against a 1.67 baseline, three landed in 60 UFC-run minutes and all three in one fight — but defends 77% and rising, with opponents 0-for-12 across the verified round log. Dorsainvil's 62 rests on three submission wins in five fights and the positional chaining of the Holt finish. It is the least reliable number on this page.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

0.0
Gauge
0
Stansmall sample

Technique alone reads level — and it should, because half the inputs on the Dorsainvil side are estimates rather than measurements. The separation in this fight does not come from technique.

Cardio

Fight time · pace · R3/R1 output · champ rounds

0
Gauge
0
Stansmall sample

Young's average UFC-run fight time is 15:00 and his output rises every round — 26.0 to 34.5 to 36.0 — with accuracy holding near 49% in the third. Dorsainvil's Holt fight was a three-round pressure campaign finished at 4:06 of the third, but behind it sit one fight in twenty-one months, an eighteen-month layoff, short-notice acceptance and a first 155 cut since 2024.

Overall

(Technical + Cardio) / 2

0.0
Gauge
0
Stansmall sample

An eight-point gap driven almost entirely by measured cardio, activity and level of competition rather than technique — which supports a clear favourite and simultaneously explains the low conviction.

MetricGaugeStan
Avg Fight Time15:00 (UFC-run)Not publishedsmall sample
Pace TierElite volume — 6.32 SLpM vs a 4.51 baselineNot measured — no SLpM existssmall sample
R3/R1 Output138% (36.0 vs 26.0 sig)No round datasmall sample
Slow Start %High — round one is his only losing round (−0.5 net)Front-loaded — two of five wins ended inside R1
Champ RoundsN/A — 3-round boutN/A — 3-round bout

Archetype Base Rate

Distance Volume Striker 66%34% Pressure Grappler

No archetype base-rate row for this pairing · No historical archetype win-rate is applied here. The 66-34 lean is built from level of competition, activity and measured cardio — Young's four UFC-run opponents include a 19-9 American Top Team veteran, an 11-1 roster lightweight and a 10-2 Syndicate MMA lightweight, while all five of Dorsainvil's are regional. Backing the underdog requires one specific belief: that his takedown entries work at UFC level.

Gauge YoungStan Dorsainvil

Lightweight

· 57 fighters
StatGaugeGauge rankDiv avgStan rankStan
SLpM6.32—4.51—No data
Str Acc52%—47.77%—No data
Str Def49%—52.35%—No data
SApM5.12—4.15—No data
KD Avg0.25—0.51—No data
Damage Ratio1.23—~1.09—No data
TD/150.75—1.67—No data
TD Def77% (0-for-12 in the verified log)———No data
Sub/150.00—0.48—No data
Avg Fight Time15:00 (UFC-run)———No data
Statistical Verdict
There is exactly one measured column in this table and it belongs to Gauge Young. Read on its own it grades him as a genuine UFC lightweight with a specific flaw: output 40% above the division baseline at above-average accuracy, takedown defence that has just been raised by a real grappler, and a striking defence three and a half points below average that lets through roughly one extra significant strike per minute. Dorsainvil's column is empty because no source publishes a rate statistic for him, and this page will not manufacture one. Every stylistic edge he owns in this matchup is an inference from five regional fights, not a number.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

⚠ R1, R2, R3: single-fight sample for Stan Dorsainvil

Control Time per Round (sec)

Gauge Young

  • Output climbs every round — 26.0 landed, then 34.5, then 36.0 — while absorption plateaus at 26.5, 32.0, 32.0. He loses round one on the raw ledger by half a strike and wins round three by four.
  • The net differential tracks it exactly: −0.5 in the first, +2.5 in the second, +4.0 in the third. He is a compounding fighter with a soft opening five minutes.
  • Control time peaks late at 45 seconds, and all three of his UFC takedowns came in a single fight — 1 of 1 in the first, 1 of 3 in the second, 1 of 2 in the third against Maheshate. Opponents went 0 for 12 across both logged bouts.
  • Zero submission attempts in every logged round. His career aggregate range split is known even though the rounds behind it are not: 355 of 379 UFC significant strikes landed standing (94%), 17 in the clinch, 7 on the ground.

Stan Dorsainvil

  • No round-by-round rows exist in either analytics project. Dorsainvil is a UFC debutant with zero Octagon minutes and no measured statistic of any kind, so his side of every chart on this page is intentionally blank.
  • The verified substitute is the finish log, and it is barbell-shaped: submissions at 2:48 and 3:34 of round one, a triangle in the third, and a ground-and-pound TKO at 4:06 of the third.
  • He has reached a final bell once in five fights — the 30-27 shutout of Cedric Katambwa at LFA 188 — and has never fought beyond three rounds or against an opponent with UFC tenure.
Critical Insight
Dorsainvil's equity is front-loaded and Young's is back-loaded, in the same round order. Round one is Dorsainvil's best and Young's worst — the only round Young does not win on his own log, and exactly where two of Dorsainvil's five wins ended. Round three is the exact reverse: 36.0 landed and 45 seconds of control is Young's best round on record, against an opponent whose only comparable round came at 160 pounds against regional opposition. Between them sits the question of whether an eighteen-month-layoff debutant on short notice is still chaining position at minute eleven.

Strike Targeting (career avg)

No UFC strike-target data for either fighter — nothing is estimated.

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage. Fighters without UFC samples are omitted rather than shown as 0%.

Range Profile — where the minutes go

Gauge · N/AStan · N/A

No UFC range-share data for either fighter — nothing is estimated.

Share of significant-strike volume by range from UFC career data. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.

04

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much
Open SpaceGauge owns it

6.32 SLpM at 52% accuracy with 94% of his UFC strikes landed standing; not one of Dorsainvil's five wins came from a standing strike

Pocket / ExchangesGauge owns it

Six career knockouts against an untested UFC chin — held back by a 49% striking defence and 5.12 absorbed per minute

ClinchStan owns it

Fence work is the Holt blueprint; only 17 of Young's 379 UFC significant strikes (4%) have landed in the clinch

GroundStan owns it

Three submission wins in five fights against Sub/15 0.00 and a career submission loss — running into 77% takedown defence and 0-for-12 in the log

Path to Victory

Gauge Young

Survive the first ninety seconds. After that the fight becomes arithmetic — 6.32 significant strikes a minute across fifteen minutes he has now reached four consecutive times.

Why they win
01
Measured elite output

6.32 significant strikes per minute against a 4.51 lightweight baseline, at 52% accuracy, sustained across 60 UFC-run minutes while shooting almost nothing.

02
Takedown defence that has already been tested

77% and rising — it read 72% before the Moisés bout — with opponents 0 for 12 across the two fights in the verified round log.

03
Never knocked out

Fourteen professional fights, zero knockout losses. His only stoppage defeat is a four-year-old armbar on a regional card.

04
A compounding round profile

26.0 landed in round one, 34.5 in round two, 36.0 in round three, while absorption flattens at 32.0. The longer it lasts, the better he gets.

05
Four consecutive fifteen-minute fights

Average fight time 15:00 in UFC-run bouts, against a man who has reached a third round twice in four years.

06
Full camp, in form, no cut question

Three fights in sixteen months with no layoff, against a short-notice replacement dropping from a 160-pound catchweight.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Respect minute one

    Circle, jab and establish range before committing to volume. His own round log says the opening five minutes are the only ones he does not win — do not meet the debut adrenaline dump head-on.

  2. 2
    Keep the neck safe

    No deep collar exchanges, no diving on power shots. Chin down and elbows in on every level-change read, because the guillotine is the single sharpest weapon pointed at him.

  3. 3
    Fight at his 94%-standing home range

    Long, straight, high-frequency, body-heavy work that compounds — the range where 355 of his 379 UFC significant strikes have already landed.

  4. 4
    Sprawl and disengage, not sprawl and grapple

    With Sub/15 0.00 and one career submission loss, mat exchanges are pure downside. Stand up immediately, not eventually.

  5. 5
    Escalate in rounds two and three

    His second-round output jumps 8.5 strikes over his first-round average. Make a short-notice opponent answer a pace he has never faced at minute eleven.

Path to Victory

Stan Dorsainvil

One neck. A guillotine at 3:34 of round one requires no cardio, no weight cut and no Octagon experience — and it is aimed at a man with Sub/15 0.00 who has already been armbarred.

Why they win
01
Submission density

Three of five wins by submission, including a guillotine at 3:34 of round one, aimed at a man with 0.00 submission attempts per fifteen minutes.

02
Positional chaining, not just chokes

The Holt finish ran fence to takedown to back to mount and held for most of three rounds — this is a system, not an opportunistic choke.

03
He attacks the documented hole

Young's 49% striking defence and 5.12 absorbed per minute mean he can be hit, and hit while he is defending entries.

04
Zero tape to game-plan against

No UFC film, no rate profile, four regional videos. Young's corner is preparing for a shape rather than a fighter.

05
Undefeated and never finished

There is no evidence he breaks, because nobody has yet made him — and no evidence he does not, for the same reason.

06
The one finish loss on Young's record is a submission

And Moisés proved four months ago that a determined wrestler can put him on his back at UFC level.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Attack in the first ninety seconds

    The highest-value window in the fight. Young's opener is his softest round on his own data, and two of Dorsainvil's five wins ended inside four minutes of round one.

  2. 2
    Fence first, takedown second

    The Holt blueprint — shorten the range where 6.32 significant strikes a minute lives before shooting into it.

  3. 3
    Hunt the guillotine on every reactive shot

    Young does not fight on the mat, has attempted no submissions in 60 UFC minutes, and has been armbarred once already.

  4. 4
    Bank control minutes, not damage

    A 10-9 built on top position scores the same as one built on strikes and costs far less cardio on a short-notice camp.

  5. 5
    If it reaches the third, look for the Holt finish

    Mount and ground-and-pound near the horn, not a desperation shot from open guard against a man who stuffs entries.

Danger Zone

How Gauge Young loses

  • He starts as slowly as his own log says, gets fence-walked in the opening minute, and is submitted before the volume engine turns over.

  • He over-commits on a combination against a pressuring opponent and hands over the neck — the 3:34 guillotine is a template, not a fluke.

  • He wins rounds two and three on strikes and still drops a 29-28, because first-round control time scores the same as damage.

Danger Zone

How Stan Dorsainvil loses

  • His entries are stuffed exactly as Elder's and Maheshate's were — 0 for 12 — and he eats 6.32 significant strikes a minute at range for fifteen minutes.

  • Eighteen months of inactivity plus a short-notice cut surface in round two, and he fades into a man whose best round is the third.

  • He tries to prove the Muay Thai credentials on the feet and is out-landed by fifty-plus significant strikes by a fighter who lives at that range.

The fight's central shape

The Barbell Against the Ramp

Dorsainvil's finishing distribution is a barbell — two submissions inside the opening four minutes, one submission and one TKO in the third. Young's performance distribution is a ramp — 26.0 significant strikes landed in round one, 34.5 in round two, 36.0 in round three, with the net moving from −0.5 to +2.5 to +4.0. The shapes intersect badly for exactly one man at a time. Over three rounds the ramp usually wins; the barbell only needs to connect once.

+4.0
Young's R3 net strike differential, against −0.5 in R1
The load-bearing data point

The Moisés Evidence

On April 18, 2026 Young faced a 19-9 American Top Team lightweight with seven career submissions, a 1.14 Sub/15 rate and 1.31 takedowns per fifteen minutes. He was chain-wrestled down in round one, tied up and elbowed — then defended his way through round two, won the exchanges and took the split. His career takedown defence rose from 72% to 77% across that fight. Dorsainvil is asking him to solve the same puzzle with a fraction of Moisés' pedigree, four months later.

77%
Young's takedown defence after the Moisés bout, up from 72%
Two records, both true

The Rate-Versus-Career Disconnect

Young's career says finisher: six knockouts, five first-round stoppages, a left hook that ended Eric Grant at 0:11 of the second. His UFC-run record says decision machine: four bouts, four full fifteens, one knockdown, zero finishes. The resolution is level of competition, and Dorsainvil is the first opponent since the FAC days who arrives without proof of durability at this level — which is why the model's KO/TKO bucket for Young sits at 24%, well above what an 0-for-4 UFC finishing record alone would justify.

The axis the fight turns on

Sixty Minutes, Zero Submission Attempts

Young has not attempted a single submission in 60 UFC-run minutes and owns one career submission win from 2021 — alongside one career submission loss. Dorsainvil has won 60% of his fights by submission and has finished nobody with a punch on the feet. Whoever imposes their phase wins outright: distance for fifteen minutes, or the fence and the mat.

Why conviction is capped at four

Unmeasurable Risk and the Short-Notice Debut

Every number attached to Dorsainvil on this page is either a fight-log fact or an explicit estimate; not one is a measured rate. He replaced an injured Kody Steele, has fought once in twenty-one months and cuts to 155 for the first time since 2024. The two men have never met and share no common opponents anywhere in either résumé, so there is no shared reference point to triangulate with. Short-notice debutants historically underperform their regional form — a prior, not evidence, which is exactly why the bout is graded high-risk.

The Five-Round Clock

Gauge Young danger windowStan Dorsainvil danger windowNeutral / contested
R1 · 0:00–5:00Dorsainvil's kill zone

Maximum Dorsainvil equity and maximum Young danger in the same five minutes. Young's own log says round one is the only round he does not win (26.0 landed, −0.5 net), and it is exactly where two of Dorsainvil's five wins ended — a submission at 2:48 and a guillotine at 3:34.

Critical Insight
The fight has an inverted clock, and both men are on opposite ends of it. Dorsainvil's equity is front-loaded and Young's is back-loaded, in the same round order — round one is Dorsainvil's best and Young's worst, round three is the exact reverse. If the opening ninety seconds pass without a takedown or a neck, every remaining minute moves the fight toward the man who has now reached the final horn four consecutive times.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

05

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things
1

Gauge Young owns the only measured rate line in this fight: 6.32 significant strikes a minute against a 4.51 lightweight baseline, 77% takedown defence with opponents 0-for-12 in the verified log, and four consecutive UFC-run bouts that all went the full fifteen minutes.

2

Stan Dorsainvil has zero Octagon minutes and zero rows in either analytics database. His case is three submissions in five regional wins and a guillotine at 3:34 of round one, aimed at a man with Sub/15 0.00 who has been submitted before.

3

Model: Young 66% / Dorsainvil 34%, conviction 4/10. The bout is flagged high-risk because one side of it is genuinely unpriceable, and the first ninety seconds are worth more than every statistic on this page.

100 Simulated Fights

Young Decision — 36%Young Submission — 6%Young KO/TKO — 24%Dorsainvil KO/TKO — 8%Dorsainvil Decision — 12%Dorsainvil Submission — 14%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. Gauge Young gold · Stan Dorsainvil orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Round-one takedown entry success

The highest-leverage variable in the fight. Young's verified log has opponents 0 for 12 across the Elder and Maheshate bouts, and his takedown defence rose to 77% after fifteen minutes of Moisés' chain-wrestling. Every Dorsainvil branch begins with an entry landing inside the first five minutes.

The guillotine door

Young's reactive shots and over-committed combinations are the exact trigger for the finish that ended Johnny Smith at 3:34 of round one. It is worth 14 of Dorsainvil's 34 win-shares and is the single reason this line is not 75-25.

The ramp against the barbell

Young's output moves 26.0 to 34.5 to 36.0 and his net moves −0.5 to +2.5 to +4.0. Dorsainvil's finishing equity is concentrated in the opening four minutes and the closing minute. Over three rounds the ramp wins far more often than it loses.

Debut variance

No UFC film, no rate data, no measurable pace history, and no round profile in either analytics database. The model widens its uncertainty band on the underdog rather than narrowing his probability, which is why the split is a lean and the conviction is a four.

Activity and weight

One bout in twenty-one months, an eighteen-month layoff, a first 155 cut since 2024 after a 160-pound catchweight, and a short-notice call-up. All four push the same direction, and all four bite hardest after minute five.

Level-of-competition transfer

An 80% regional finish rate meeting UFC-tenured opposition, against a man whose four UFC-run opponents include a 19-9 American Top Team veteran. The counterweight is control-time scoring — the route by which Dorsainvil wins rounds without doing damage, worth 12 of his 34.

Fight Scripts

0%
of simulations

The Fifteen-Minute Exercise

Young survives the opening five minutes, escapes the fence and turns the fight into the volume exercise he has now run four consecutive times. His output climbs from 26 significant strikes in the first to 36 in the third against a debutant whose calendar reads one fight in twenty-one months, and the cards read 29-28 or 30-27. The largest single bucket on the page and the honest base case.

Scripted outcomes for Gauge Young vs Stan Dorsainvil — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Gauge Young win probability
0%
24%
36%
6%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Set deliberately above his 0-for-4 UFC finishing record: six career knockouts, five first-round stoppages, and the first opponent since the regional circuit whose chin is untested at this level. Most of it lands in rounds two and three, as the volume accumulates against a short-notice debutant.

  • The largest bucket on the page and the honest base case. Four of four UFC-run bouts went the full fifteen, his output climbs every round, and his opponent has reached a third round twice in four years.

  • A courtesy bucket. Zero submission attempts in 60 UFC-run minutes and one career submission win five years ago on a regional card — these are scramble outcomes, not a hunted path.

Stan Dorsainvil win probability
0%
8%
12%
14%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Eight points, and note what they are not: his only career TKO was ground-and-pound from mount at 4:06 of the third, not a standing finish. This bucket is stoppages from the top in a round Young was expected to own.

  • Prices the control-time route — fence work and top position banking rounds without damage, the Katambwa 30-27 template applied to a man who does nothing on the mat. The hardest version of his own plan, on debut, on short notice.

  • His primary path and the reason this line is not 75-25. Three of five wins by submission, a proven round-one guillotine at 3:34, and an opponent with Sub/15 0.00 who has already been armbarred once.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round
R1
Even
R2
Gauge
R3
Gauge
29-28 Young
Dorsainvil banks the opening round on fence work and control, Young takes the last ten minutes
The most likely card if the fight reaches them
30-27 Young
The entries never land, the ramp runs from the opening bell
Common whenever the first ninety seconds pass without a takedown
29-28 Dorsainvil
A round-one takedown plus one stolen fence round, on control minutes rather than damage
His only realistic route to the scorecards — the Katambwa 30-27 template, scaled down

Moneyline

Gauge Young
Not posted
Stan Dorsainvil
Not posted

No book has published a line on this bout and none is invented here. The model's fair prices, derived from the 66-34 split, are Gauge Young −194 and Stan Dorsainvil +194. Live odds appear in the hero above once the market opens on the Sacramento card.

Props: model vs market

PropOddsImplied %Model %FairEdgeVerdict
Best Value
Young by decision at 36% is the structural chalk — the outcome that four straight fifteen-minute fights and a ramping round profile point at. The genuine flier is Dorsainvil by submission at 14%, because it is the one result that requires nothing to have been measured: a guillotine at 3:34 of round one needs no cardio, no weight cut and no UFC experience. Fade Dorsainvil by decision at 12% — winning twelve control-heavy minutes at UFC level, on debut, on short notice, after eighteen months out, is the hardest version of his own plan. The rest of the model's card: the fight does not go the distance 52% against 48% that it does, Young inside the distance 30%, Dorsainvil inside the distance 22%, and by round of finish roughly 16% in the first, 16% in the second and 20% in the third — the largest single-round finish cluster. Every percentage here is our model's; no market price exists for this bout.
Conviction
0
4/10

A clear favourite with a genuinely low confidence grade. One fighter in this bout has zero measurable data — no rate line, no round profile, no UFC minutes, no row in either analytics database — so the model leans on level-of-competition and activity priors rather than a statistical comparison. The card marks this bout high-risk on a minimum-UFC-bouts rule, and the conviction is capped to match. Lean: Gauge Young.

What backs the lean

  • 6.32 significant strikes per minute against a 4.51 division baseline — measured, and sustained across 60 UFC-run minutes.

  • 77% takedown defence and rising, with a verified 0-for-12 across the two bouts we can see round by round.

  • A fifteen-minute win over Thiago Moisés — 19-9, American Top Team, seven career submissions — after surviving early chain-wrestling.

  • Average fight time of 15:00 against an opponent with one fight in twenty-one months.

  • Never knocked out in fourteen professional fights; his only finish loss is a four-year-old armbar.

  • A round profile that improves every five minutes, in a fight that is only three rounds long.

What limits it

  • Three submission wins in five fights, aimed at a man with Sub/15 0.00 and a career submission loss.

  • Young's 49% striking defence and 5.12 absorbed per minute — he can be hit, and hit while defending entries.

  • Young's own log says round one is his weakest, and two of Dorsainvil's wins ended inside four minutes of round one.

  • The Holt performance showed sustained positional chaining, not a one-shot choke artist.

  • Undefeated and never finished — and completely unpriceable, because no data exists to price him with.

  • Moisés proved four months ago that a determined wrestler can put Young on his back at UFC level.

Final Assessment

In roughly 66 of 100 simulations, Gauge "Gee Money" Young does what his data says he does — survives a dangerous opening five minutes, escapes the fence, and turns the fight into the fifteen-minute volume exercise he has now run four consecutive times. Most often that ends on the cards at 36%, his output climbing from 26 significant strikes in round one to 36 in round three against a debutant whose calendar reads one fight in twenty-one months. In 24% the accumulation converts — six career knockouts and five first-round finishes meeting the first chin since the regional circuit that has never been tested at this level. A further 6% end in a submission he has not attempted once in sixty UFC minutes.

In the other 34, Stan "The Drill" Dorsainvil's grappling travels. Fourteen are submissions — the guillotine at 3:34 that finished Johnny Smith, or the back-take-to-mount sequence that broke an undefeated Dan Holt — arriving most often in the exact window Young's own log shows him at his softest. Twelve are control-heavy decisions built on fence work and top position, the Katambwa 30-27 template applied to a man who does nothing on the mat. Eight are stoppages from the top in a round Young was expected to own.

The data gives Young the only measured rate line in the fight, the only proof of level, the only verified takedown defence and the only fifteen-minute engine; it gives Dorsainvil an undefeated record, a 60% submission rate and an absence of tape that makes any projection against him a guess. On August 22 at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, we take Gee Money to out-work the debutant across three rounds — and we hold conviction at 4, because the first ninety seconds of this fight are worth more than every statistic printed above.

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