Carli Judice vs Jeisla Chaves
Women's Flyweight Bout • UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues
Saturday, August 22, 2026 • Golden 1 Center, Sacramento
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Carli Judice
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
Jeisla Chaves
Fighter Metrics
Victory Methods
Win Round Distribution
📋 Last 5 Fights - Carli Judice
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | Juliana Miller | W | Decision (Unanimous) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-07-19 | Nicolle Caliari | W | KO/TKO (Knee to Body) (R3, 1:30) |
| 2025-03-15 | Yuneisy Duben | W | KO/TKO (Head Kick) (R1, 1:40) |
| 2024-06-15 | Gabriella Fernandes | L | Decision (Split) (R3, 5:00) |
| pre-UFC | Regional (pre-UFC) | L | Decision (—, —) |
📋 Last 5 Fights - Jeisla Chaves
| Date | Opponent | Result | Method |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | Yuneisy Duben | W | Decision (Split, UFC debut) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2025-09 | Sofia Montenegro | W | Decision (Split, DWCS) (R3, 5:00) |
| 2024-04 | Siddhi Vieira | W | KO/TKO (G&P, GFC Title) (R1, —) |
| pre-UFC | Regional (undefeated run) | W | Regional Win (—, —) |
| pre-UFC | Regional (undefeated run) | W | Regional Win (—, —) |
Technical Analysis
Technical Score
Cardio Score
Overall Rating
📊 Technical Score
Calculated as the average of Striking Composite (62.7 vs 50.0) and Grappling Composite (43.0 vs 50.0). Only Judice is DB-computed; Chaves has no career-stats row, so her figures are the Women's Flyweight divisional-average baseline (50.0) shown as a neutral, unmeasured placeholder — not a measured score.
💪 Cardio Score
Based on average fight duration, striking rate per minute, takedown rate, and finish rate. Measures cardiovascular endurance and ability to maintain pace throughout fights.
🎯 Overall Rating
Simple average of Technical Score and Cardio Score. Provides a holistic view of fighter capabilities combining skill level with physical conditioning and fight performance.
Striking Composite
Grappling Composite
Technical Radar Comparison
Visual comparison of key performance metrics between both fighters
📊 Detailed Statistical Comparison
🥊 Fight Analysis Breakdown
🧩 Carli Judice Key Advantages
Judice is the only fighter the database can see, and the quantities are legitimately good: elite volume (SLpM 10.73, rank 2/23), elite power (0.70 KD average, rank 2/23), top-tier accuracy (52%, rank 5/23), an Iron chin (0 knockdowns absorbed in her tracked career), and an above-average damage ratio (1.33, rank 9/23). That describes a real, dangerous UFC flyweight. Against an opponent the engine cannot measure at all, "proven, high-output and hard to hurt" is itself a genuine edge — the one crack being her near-worst strike absorption (22/23), which is exactly how her two decision losses happened.
Both women have beaten Yuneisy Duben inside fifteen months. Judice head-kicked her unconscious in 1:40 of Round 1; Chaves needed a 15-minute split decision to get past the same fighter. It is one data point, styles and timing differ, and it is not a controlled experiment — but it is the cleanest apples-to-apples, on-tape comparison available in a fight where one side is otherwise a data void, and it points hard in one direction: Judice is the harder, more decisive hitter of the two, and Chaves operates in the razor-thin, close-decision margins.
Judice has never been dropped in her tracked career and both of her losses came by decision, not stoppage — you have to out-work her, not crack her. Pair that Iron chin with rank-2 power and a documented finishing book (head-kick KO of Duben, body-knee KO of Caliari) against a chin that is untested at this level. Crucially, she does not fade — she surges: her Round 3 is her best round (51.5 significant strikes, 61.4% accuracy, a 0.50 knockdown average), which directly counters Chaves's entire calling card of winning close, late decisions. And her 78% takedown defense stands in front of Chaves's single most dangerous path.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
The nightmare for Judice is the Fernandes loss run back: Chaves survives the early power, drags her into a grappling-tinged grind, and out-works her to a split decision. Judice's near-worst strike absorption (22/23) shows up — she eats clean Muay Thai volume in exchanges, and in a genuinely close fight the judges reward Chaves's forward pressure and control seconds. Winning ugly, close nods is Chaves's single most repeatable skill, and Judice being out-pointed over 15 minutes is precisely how both of her career losses have happened.
The other collapse lane: Judice loads up hunting the finish — as her identity demands — gets predictable, and Chaves's lightly-tested-but-real chin turns out to be just fine. Chaves has never been finished and has twice gone the full 15 minutes in wars, so a durable, undefeated opponent is harder to starch than a fragile one. If the head kick and body knee never land, the fight becomes a grind where Chaves's pressure, output and jiu-jitsu can steal the close rounds, and the biggest unmeasured unknown — whether Chaves can wrestle Judice down — is the exact tool that beats a fighter with zero grappling offense.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Judice's 0% slow start and rank-2 output are her identity, so the plan is to engage from the opening bell and make every round a landslide of landed strikes. With her power live immediately (0.33 R1 knockdown average — the Duben head kick lived here), she should test the unmeasured chin hard while the fight is fresh, hunting the two shots she has finished with before: the head kick and the body knee. Chaves's durability at this level is a genuine unknown; the time to find out is early, before any grind can develop.
Judice wants nothing to do with the mat, and she doesn't have to: 93% standing time and 78% takedown defense let her deny the grapple and force a kickboxing match where her measured striking edge decides it. If Chaves wants a Montenegro-style firefight, oblige it — Judice has never been dropped and her damage ratio (1.33) favors the trade. Then close hard in Round 3, her strongest round: if the cards are close after two, the documented late surge (51.5 significant strikes, 0.50 knockdown average) is the closing argument. Do not coast.
🚀 Jeisla Chaves Key Advantages
Chaves is undefeated, durable and battle-tested over the full fifteen minutes. Her two highest-level results — a bloody Contender Series war with Sofia Montenegro and a split-decision UFC-debut win over Yuneisy Duben — both went the distance and prove she can weather adversity, bleed and keep winning rounds. She has never lost and has never been finished at any level we can see. That is a real, if unmeasured, resilience, and it caps how decisively Judice's rank-2 power can end the night: a durable, undefeated opponent is far harder to starch than a fragile one.
Chaves is genuinely two-way — the grappling is not theoretical. A Bahia jiu-jitsu title and a regional ground-and-pound TKO mean she can plausibly turn this into a wrestling and control fight; Judice's takedown defense is good (78%) but only lightly tested, and her offense off her back is a complete blank. If Chaves gets top position she can steal the exact close rounds she specializes in winning. And Judice's soft spot — near-worst absorption (22/23) and both career losses by decision — is tailor-made for a grinder. The engine's own quiet signal fits: it ranks Chaves (#16) while leaving the proven Judice unranked.
⚠️ Unfavorable Scenarios
Judice's 0% slow start meets an unmeasured chin: a first-round head kick or body knee — both documented finishes — ends the night before Chaves's grind can ever matter, the exact way Yuneisy Duben's fight with Judice ended in 100 seconds. Chaves's power-tolerance is proven over fifteen minutes, but she has never faced a knockdown threat like Judice's rank-2 average, and a pure kickboxing match is where the measured edge is largest and Chaves's chin is most exposed.
The fight stays standing — Judice's 78% takedown defense holds — and Chaves simply cannot match rank-2 volume. Judice out-lands her at range across three rounds and, in a Round 3 that is her strongest rather than her weakest, throws 51.5 significant strikes with a 0.50 knockdown average and pulls away. Any Chaves plan built on out-lasting Judice into the championship minutes runs straight into a fighter who accelerates there, so a late-and-close decision is exactly the window her own tape says she can lose.
📋 Likely Gameplan
Judice's power is live from the opening bell, so Chaves's first job is simply to survive the first five minutes — weather the early storm, don't get head-kicked, and the fight lengthens toward her comfort zone. From there she must make it a grind, not a firefight: pressure, clinch, and crucially use the jiu-jitsu. Any takedown and control time steals rounds from a fighter with zero grappling offense and negligible control time — it is the single highest-leverage route on the board, and the one the database cannot rule out.
Chaves wins split decisions for a living, so forward pressure, output and control seconds in the judges' eyes are her proven path. Sustained, accurate Muay Thai volume across fifteen minutes is exactly how Fernandes out-pointed Judice — whose near-worst absorption (22/23) invites it. What she must not do is get into a pure phone-booth trade: that plays to Judice's power and Iron chin. Win with variety, position and pace, not by standing in front of a rank-2 knockdown puncher who has never been dropped.
🎯 Fight Prediction Analysis
Data-driven prediction model based on statistical analysis
📊Detailed Analysis Summary
📊Measured vs. Unmeasured
This is a partially asymmetric-information fight: Judice is fully computed in the database, while Chaves is a roster row with no career stats, no computed metrics and no UFC fight log. But it is a much milder void than a true blank slate — Chaves has a legible 7-0 record, a documented Muay Thai and jiu-jitsu style, verifiable results, and, decisively, a shared opponent with the measured fighter. So we are not guessing entirely in the dark. We are weighing a known, high-output, iron-chinned finisher with a soft absorption number against an undefeated, durable, two-way grinder whose ceiling is unmeasured but whose floor — 15-minute wars, never finished — is real. Every Chaves figure on this page is a Women's Flyweight divisional-average placeholder, not a measurement.
🎯Technical Breakdown
The fight is decided on two battlefields: measured striking and a grappling unknown. Judice's line is coherent and dangerous — elite volume (10.73 SLpM, rank 2/23), elite power (0.70 knockdown average, rank 2/23), top-tier accuracy (52%, rank 5/23), an Iron chin (0 knockdowns absorbed) and an above-average damage ratio (1.33). The single crack is her near-worst strike absorption (22/23): she gets hit a lot, exactly how her two decision losses happened. Her grappling is minimal — 0.70 takedowns per 15 and zero submission offense — so she wins on the feet. Chaves is a blank column with no computed metrics, so there is no comparative side to fill; her Muay Thai pedigree is a qualitative indicator only.
🧩The Three Questions
Three questions decide everything. First, can Chaves wrestle Judice down and keep her there? Judice's 78% takedown defense and 93% standing time say it's hard; Chaves's BJJ title and ground-and-pound finish say it's possible — the biggest swing factor, and the database cannot answer it. Second, does Chaves's chin hold against rank-2 power? She is durable over fifteen minutes but has never faced a knockdown threat like Judice's. Third, can Chaves out-work an opponent whose worst trait is absorption but whose best round is the last one? Fernandes did it — but Judice's late surge (51.5 R3 strikes) makes the decision path narrower than it looks: you can out-land her in Rounds 1 and 2 and still lose the round that matters most.
🏁Final Prediction
Judice's single largest and most data-supported path is KO/TKO (31%) — elite power, a documented finishing book (head kick, body knee), an early-and-late knockdown threat, and the shared-opponent evidence that she finishes where Chaves grinds — capped below her career finish rate by Chaves's proven 15-minute durability. Her decision path (27%) reflects that she can simply out-volume opponents (the Miller UD) and win close cards on her Round 3 surge. Chaves's most structurally-supported route is a close decision (24% — she wins split decisions for a living), with a real but suppressed KO/TKO (10%) and the fight's biggest unmeasured upside, a submission (7%), off her jiu-jitsu. The model leans Judice 59–41, held with humility because one side is a data void.
💰 Betting Analysis: Model vs Market
Detailed value assessment in the betting market
📊Market Odds
🤖Analytical Model
💎Value Opportunities
MAXIMUM VALUE
Model: ~69% | Market implied: 58%
GOOD VALUE
Model: 41% | Fair: +144
SLIGHT VALUE
Model: 31% | Fair: +200
⚠️Key Market Discrepancies
- • Wide error bars – One fighter is unmeasured; every line here carries more uncertainty than a two-sided read and should be sized with humility.
- • Under-prices the R3 surge – Judice's best round is the decider, not a fade, narrowing Chaves's close-decision path more than the market implies.
- • Durability favors the OVER – An Iron chin (0 KD absorbed) and a never-finished opponent make the fight reaching Round 3 more likely than the ~58% market suggests.
🎯 Comprehensive Probabilistic Analysis
100 hypothetical fight simulation based on statistical data
🏆Outcome Distribution - Carli Judice
Out-volumes over 3 rounds; R3 surge banks close cards
Head kick or body knee — power is live early and late
Near-zero — no submission offense on record (0.00 sub/15)
💥Outcome Distribution - Jeisla Chaves
Real Muay Thai power, but Judice's chin is Iron (0 KD)
Her most repeatable skill — wins split decisions for a living
Biggest unmeasured upside — BJJ title + regional GnP finish
⏰Fight Timeline Analysis
⚡Window of Opportunity - Jeisla Chaves
- • Survive the first five minutes: weather the head kick and body knee.
- • Grapple and control: BJJ and GnP to steal the close rounds.
- • Bank the close nod: forward pressure and control seconds win judges.
🎯Progressive Dominance - Carli Judice
- • Establish volume early: rank-2 output buries the rounds.
- • Hunt the finish: head kick and body knee test the unmeasured chin.
- • Close hard in R3: her strongest round is the decider.
🎯 Final Confidence Assessment
Confidence level and uncertainty factors
Confidence Level
A measured lean on the only quantified fighter — capped because the opponent is an undefeated data void
✅Supporting Factors
- • Only measured fighter — elite volume (2/23) & power (2/23)
- • Shared opponent: finished Duben in 100s vs Chaves's 15-min split
- • Iron chin (0 KD absorbed) and a non-fading, R3-peaking motor
- • Younger (27 vs 29); 78% TDDef guards Chaves's best path
⚠️Risk Factors
- • Opponent is a data void — no stats or fight log
- • Chaves undefeated, un-finished, genuine BJJ/GnP game
- • Judice's near-worst absorption (22/23); both losses by decision
🏁Executive Summary
Across 100 simulations, Carli Judice's measured striking decides the night in roughly 59 of them — most often by burying Chaves in rank-2 volume and cracking her with a kick or knee her iron-chinned, non-fading profile makes possible early or late, less often by simply out-landing her across three rounds and pulling away in a Round 3 that is her strongest, not her weakest. She is the harder hitter, the fresher and younger athlete, the only measurable fighter — and against the one opponent both women share, she was violently decisive where Chaves was razor-thin. In the other 41, the fight tilts to the undefeated grinder: Chaves survives the early power, refuses to be finished as she always has, and either out-works Judice into a close decision (the Fernandes template) or deploys the jiu-jitsu and top game Judice has no documented answer for. This fight is decided by whether Chaves can change the terms — a stand-up fight favors Judice; a grinding, grappling-tinged war keeps Chaves live.
Prediction: Carli Judice at 59% — most likely by KO/TKO (31%) via the head kick or body knee, or by out-volume decision (27%) sealed on her Round 3 surge. Jeisla Chaves's best paths are a close decision (24%) and the fight's biggest unmeasured upside, a submission (7%) off her jiu-jitsu. It is a modest, evidence-anchored lean on the fighter we can actually see — reinforced by the one opponent they share — held with real humility about everything the data cannot measure. Best value: the fight reaching Round 3 (Over 2.5, −140), given two exceptionally durable fighters.