The small cage and both game plans point to the same place: the clinch against the fence. Schultz needs it because his takedowns from range have not worked in the UFC — 1 of 10, and 0 of 6 against Pinas — and his guillotines come from the front headlock. Kondratavičius landed 17 of 19 clinch strikes against Trócoli, including the elbow 20 seconds into Round 2 that dropped and cut him. Schultz has landed 10 clinch strikes in his three UFC fights combined. So Kondratavičius does damage there and Schultz fights for grips — and grip fighting leads to the neck. The model gives Kondratavičius the clinch at roughly 55/45, not more, because every exchange there can turn into a guillotine.
The durability gap is the number the model leans on hardest. Schultz has been dropped three times in the 6:43 of his two UFC losses and stopped by strikes three times in his last seven fights; both UFC stoppages came against opponents who stood and struck with him and never attempted a takedown. His one UFC win came against an opponent who wrestled him instead and threw 1.4 strikes per minute. Kondratavičius threw 7.1 per minute in London, lands 70% of what he throws, has six knockout wins and has never been knocked down in the UFC. That is why his knockout bucket, 44%, is the largest single outcome, and why 26 of the model's 34 first-round finishes are his.
The two reasons conviction stops at 5 sit in the third round and in Kondratavičius's own record. His only career third round was the worst five minutes of his career: 8 landed at 44%, a takedown conceded and 3:22 spent underneath a 35-year-old who had been submitted in 69 seconds three months earlier — partly because he spent everything on a Round 2 finish in his debut, in front of family in London. And the one man who has beaten him, Virgil Augen, did it with a choke. Schultz is a three-time collegiate All-American who has six submission wins and won his only UFC fight in Round 3. The model carries Schultz by submission at 19%, nearly two-thirds of his 30% win share, and splits the third-round finishes almost evenly, 8 to 7.
