3.70 takedowns per 15 minutes into 32% takedown defence
The opponent changed. The wrestling gap did not.
Alexander Poppeck is off this bout. Brendson Ribeiro (17-11) is the opponent. Franco’s UFC sample is two fights; Ribeiro’s is eight, and the defensive wrestling gap is the fight.
Ribeiro owns five inches of reach. Franco owns the takedown rate and the takedown defence.
Venue FactorThree rounds at 205 in the 25-foot APEX cage. Franco finished Levi Rodrigues Jr. from mount in round two.
Two UFC fights against eight
Levi Rodrigues Jr.
KO/TKO — punches from mount, R2 1:40 · 7/18/26 · UFC Fight Night
Mario Pinto
Decision — Unanimous · 3/21/26 · UFC Fight Night
Magomed Tuchalov
Decision — Unanimous · 7/25/26 · UFC Fight Night
Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev
Submission — rear-naked choke, R1 2:52 · 4/4/26 · UFC Fight Night
Oumar Sy
KO/TKO, R1 4:42 · 9/6/25 · UFC Fight Night
UFCStats career lines
Career aggregates describe past opposition. They are not an opponent-adjusted prediction of this fight. Rates for athletes with no completed UFC bouts are not shown.
| Metric | Felipe Franco | Brendson Ribeiro |
|---|---|---|
| Significant strikes landed / min | 2.55 | 2.94 |
| Significant strikes absorbed / min | 2.39 | 3.56 |
| Striking accuracy | 57% | 40% |
| Striking defence | 43% | 53% |
| Takedowns / 15 min | 3.7 | 0.66 |
| Takedown defence | 87% | 32% |
| Submission attempts / 15 min | 0 | 0.4 |
| Knockdowns / 15 min | Not available | Not available |
Submission attempts are not submission wins. Defence percentages depend on attempts faced. Takedown accuracy remains unverified. Round observations are not available for this comparison.
Entries versus length
Franco’s path is the fence and the mat. Ribeiro’s path is the first clean exchange at the end of an 81-inch reach, before a second shot arrives.
Chain takedowns, hold the mount that finished Rodrigues, and do not restart at range after every scramble.
Keep the first layer long, punish level changes, and win the fight before Franco’s third entry.
Editorial 58–42, conviction 4/10
Editorial handicapping
Subjective analyst estimates for the announced opponent and distance. These are not calibrated outputs from the prediction model. Method probabilities are portions of the overall outcome distribution, not percentages conditional on winning.
The bout is no longer Franco vs. Poppeck. Ribeiro’s defensive wrestling is the matchup fact.
If Franco cannot complete a second shot, the reach edge flips the card.
Take Franco if the wrestling becomes a phase. Respect Ribeiro early at plus money if a price appears.
Each square represents one percentage point of the subjective editorial distribution. This is an illustration of the assigned probabilities, not a simulation or an observed result.
Each square = 1 simulated fight. Felipe Franco gold · Brendson Ribeiro orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.
Mount finish, as against Rodrigues.
Control minutes if the finish does not land.
Four career submissions, none in the UFC rate line.
Length and early power.
The Tuchalov path, outworking a wrestler who cannot hold position.
Seven career submissions, a scramble outcome.
EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.
Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.
Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.
Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.
Required decimal price: 1.73 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.
Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.
Required decimal price: 2.39 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.
Fair prices and expected value are arithmetic consequences of these subjective estimates. A positive calculation at an old quote is not a verified current opportunity.
Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.
Grappling entries are the lean. Two UFC fights keep the conviction at 4. Lean: Felipe Franco.
3.70 TD/15 vs 0.66.
87% TDDef vs 32%.
Last win was a mount stoppage.
Five-inch reach for Ribeiro.
Franco striking defence is 43%.
Ribeiro has eight UFC fights of tape.
Take Franco if the wrestling becomes a phase. Respect Ribeiro early at plus money if a price appears.
