Rabindra Dhant vs Ryo Tajima: analysis & prediction

ROAD TO UFC FINAL · BANTAMWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Salkilld vs. Saint Denis
Rabindra Dhant — Bantamweight fighter

Rabindra Dhant

11W1L
Power Striker
…
VS
Ryo Tajima — Bantamweight fighter

Ryo Tajima

12W3L
Volume Striker
…

Can Nepal's knockout puncher get past the Pancrase champion's reach and output with a UFC contract on the line?

BantamweightAfterpay Arena, Sydney, Australia2027-02-06

The fight in 30 seconds

Ryo Tajima 54% / Rabindra Dhant 46%. Tajima is the narrow editorial selection: his reach, championship experience and output fit a fifteen-minute fight, while Dhant's best route is a stoppage against a man who has never been stopped by strikes.

Subjective editorial probabilities, not calibrated model outputs.

Rabindra Dhant

Insufficient price data
Editorial win estimate
46%
Fair odds
+117
Reference quote
—
Fair decimal odds
2.17

Ryo Tajima

Insufficient price data
Editorial win estimate
54%
Fair odds
-117
Reference quote
—
Fair decimal odds
1.85
Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Quotes listed with a date but no time are treated as undated.

Read the handicapping and counterarguments
01

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Rabindra Dhant (11-1) vs. Ryo Tajima (12-3): the Road to UFC Season 5 bantamweight final, 3 five-minute rounds in Sydney, with a UFC contract for the winner. Dhant, the first Nepali fighter to reach a Road to UFC final, has eight knockouts in eleven wins and finished common opponent Chungreng Koren in the third round. Tajima is the Pancrase bantamweight champion, has gone twenty-five minutes in a title fight and outpointed Koren in the semifinal.

Rabindra Dhant
Attribute
Ryo Tajima
11-1
Pro record
12-3
Debut
UFC record
Debut
Bantamweight
Booked division
Bantamweight
135 lb
Booked limit
135 lb
—
Height
68"
69"
Reach
+2"71"
28
Age
27
Bajhang, Nepal
Born
Kumagaya, Saitama, Japan
LocknRoll MMA Nepal; Soma Fight Club
Trains at
Oota Dojo

Height and reach in inches, ages on fight night. Career statistics and fight results through October 2026.

Venue Factor
Tajima carries a two-inch reach advantage, and both men weighed 135.5 lb for their semifinals. The reach gap is the first problem Dhant has to solve, because his finishes have come from closing distance rather than from range.
02

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Rabindra Dhant portrait

Rabindra Dhant

Rabindra Dhant

Pro record
11-1
UFC bouts
0
Career KO/TKO wins
8
Career submission wins
1

Dhant grew up in Bajhang in far-western Nepal and left home as a teenager to work as a labourer in India, taking up karate in Delhi before moving into MMA. He won his first five professional fights on Indian and Nepali cards, became the first Nepali fighter on a ONE Championship card in 2023, stopping Torepchi Dongak in the third round, and suffered his only defeat there, a decision to Ismail Khan.

In August 2025 he knocked out Chungreng Koren in the third round to win the Matrix Fight Night bantamweight title, six weeks after tearing a hamstring. Training between LocknRoll MMA in Kathmandu and Soma Fight Club in Bali, he became the first Nepali to win a Road to UFC bout, stopping Kimbert Alintozon from mount, then edged the unbeaten Kasib Murdoch on a split decision. A win in Sydney would make him the first Nepali fighter with a UFC contract.

Recent results

  • W

    Kasib Murdoch

    Decision (split, 29–28, 28–29, 29–28) · 8/28/26 · Road to UFC Season 5: Semifinals

  • W

    Kimbert Alintozon

    TKO (punches from mount) · R2 4:37 · 5/28/26 · Road to UFC Season 5: Opening Round

  • W

    Chungreng Koren

    KO (punches) · R3 0:54 · MFN bantamweight title · 8/2/25 · Matrix Fight Night 17

  • W

    Eqiyuebu

    TKO (punches) · R1 2:56 · 4/18/25 · Brave CF 93

  • W

    Korey Sutcliffe

    Decision (unanimous) · 5/25/24 · Nepal Warriors Championship: Fight Night 3

Ryo Tajima portrait

Ryo Tajima

Ryo Tajima

Pro record
12-3
UFC bouts
0
Career KO/TKO wins
6
Career submission wins
1

Tajima, from Kumagaya in Saitama and trained at Oota Dojo, turned professional in 2021 and has fought almost his whole career for Pancrase. He won the 2022 Neo-Blood tournament at bantamweight, took the interim title when Toshinori Tsunemura's corner stopped their fight in the fourth round, and then lost a five-round unanimous decision to champion Taichi Nakajima at 23.

After a decision loss to Rui Imura in 2024, he stopped Mahiro Yamaki and then Imura himself in the first round in December 2025 to win the undisputed Pancrase bantamweight title. In the Road to UFC he won a split decision over Ti Haitao in Macau and a unanimous decision over Chungreng Koren in Shanghai. His only stoppage loss is a 2021 heel hook.

Recent results

  • W

    Chungreng Koren

    Decision (unanimous, 30–27, 29–28, 29–28) · 8/28/26 · Road to UFC Season 5: Semifinals

  • W

    Ti Haitao

    Decision (split, 29–28, 28–29, 29–28) · 5/28/26 · Road to UFC Season 5: Opening Round

  • W

    Rui Imura

    TKO (punches) · R1 3:42 · Pancrase bantamweight title · 12/21/25 · Pancrase 360

  • W

    Mahiro Yamaki

    TKO (corner stoppage) · R3 1:54 · 6/1/25 · Pancrase 354

  • L

    Rui Imura

    Decision (unanimous) · 3/31/24 · Pancrase 341

03

The Numbers

Career statistics and what they say about this matchup

Career statistics

Career averages describe past opposition, not a prediction of this fight, and can include Contender Series appearances.

Rabindra Dhant: Makes his UFC debut. Two Road to UFC tournament bouts and 24 minutes 37 seconds of cage time: a second-round stoppage and a split decision.

Ryo Tajima: Makes his UFC debut. Two Road to UFC tournament bouts, both three-round decisions, and fifteen professional fights, nine of them past the second round.

Career statistical comparison for Rabindra Dhant and Ryo Tajima
MetricRabindra DhantRyo Tajima
Significant strikes landed / min——
Significant strikes absorbed / min——
Striking accuracy——
Striking defence——
Takedowns / 15 min——
Takedown defence——
Submission attempts / 15 min——
Knockdowns / 15 min——

Submission attempts are not submission wins. Defence percentages depend on attempts faced. These are career profile averages, so no division rank is assigned. A dash is not a zero.

04

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Can Nepal's knockout puncher get past the Pancrase champion's reach and output with a UFC contract on the line?

Both semifinals turned on the same tension: Dhant was out-wrestled for long stretches but landed the heavier shots, while Tajima gave up position yet out-worked his opponent. Tajima's longer reach and steady volume should bank rounds at range, so Dhant needs to make the exchanges short and violent, punishing the entries and turning any scramble into top position before the scorecards settle it.

The Deep Read

This final pits a puncher who wins in bursts against a champion who wins on accumulation. Rabindra Dhant has eight knockouts in eleven wins; in the tournament he lost the first round on the feet to Kimbert Alintozon before dragging him down and pounding him out from mount, then edged the unbeaten Kasib Murdoch on a split decision with the heavier punches. Ryo Tajima is the Pancrase bantamweight champion, with five decision wins and nine fights past the second round, and both of his tournament wins came on the cards.

The semifinals exposed similar weaknesses. Murdoch completed five takedowns and controlled Dhant for almost ten of the fifteen minutes; Dhant stopped fifteen of twenty attempts and landed 36 of his 37 significant strikes to the head, which was enough for two judges. Koren completed five takedowns on Tajima and held him for more than eight minutes, but Tajima out-landed him 40 to 33 in significant strikes and kept up a stream of short punches from the clinch and from underneath, which swept one card and won the other two.

That matters because neither man is a control wrestler. Tajima completed five of ten takedown attempts in the tournament but kept top position for barely a minute and a half in total, and Ti Haitao reversed position on him three times. Against Dhant, who did most of his tournament damage on the ground, a takedown that turns into a scramble is a risk. Tajima's cleaner path is volume: a two-inch reach edge, about one and a half times Dhant's rate of strikes thrown at range, and short, accurate work in the clinch, where he landed 15 of 17 against Koren.

The common opponent sharpens the read without settling it. Dhant knocked Koren out in the third round in August 2025, six weeks after tearing a hamstring, while Tajima could only outpoint him a year later. That favours Dhant's power, but Tajima's résumé is deeper: an interim title, twenty-five minutes with Taichi Nakajima and a first-round stoppage of Rui Imura to avenge a loss and win the undisputed belt. Over fifteen minutes, the larger body of evidence and the reach edge give Tajima the slight lean.

Path to Victory

Rabindra Dhant

Make the exchanges short and heavy: close the reach gap, punish Tajima when he plants to throw or shoots, and turn any scramble into top position and ground strikes, the route that finished Alintozon.

Why they win
01
Primary route

Make the exchanges short and heavy: close the reach gap, punish Tajima when he plants to throw or shoots, and turn any scramble into top position and ground strikes, the route that finished Alintozon.

02
Supporting evidence

Dhant is 11-1 with eight knockouts, one submission and two decisions. He knocked out Chungreng Koren in the third round to win the Matrix Fight Night bantamweight title, stopped Kimbert Alintozon from mount in the Road to UFC quarterfinal, and edged the unbeaten Kasib Murdoch on a split decision in Shanghai with the heavier punches despite conceding long stretches of control.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Entry

    Close the reach gap behind feints and level changes; do not stand on the end of Tajima's jab for long stretches.

  2. 2
    Position

    When Tajima shoots or ties up, fight hands and look for the reversal; the scrambles are where Dhant has finished fights from top position.

  3. 3
    Adjustment

    If the rounds are close, finish each one with a visible burst, as he did in the third round against Murdoch; split panels have not been kind to slow starts.

Path to Victory

Ryo Tajima

Use the longer reach and steady volume to win the minutes at range, tie up when Dhant loads up, mix in takedowns to steal rounds and get back to his feet quickly, keeping the fight a fifteen-minute points contest.

Why they win
01
Primary route

Use the longer reach and steady volume to win the minutes at range, tie up when Dhant loads up, mix in takedowns to steal rounds and get back to his feet quickly, keeping the fight a fifteen-minute points contest.

02
Supporting evidence

Tajima is 12-3 with six stoppages by strikes, one submission and five decisions. He won Pancrase's 2022 Neo-Blood tournament at bantamweight, took the interim title, went five rounds with Taichi Nakajima, then stopped Rui Imura in the first round in December 2025 to avenge a loss and win the undisputed Pancrase bantamweight title. He won both Road to UFC bouts on the cards.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Entry

    Work behind the longer jab and keep moving off the centre line so Dhant has to reset before he can load up.

  2. 2
    Position

    Mix early takedowns to win minutes, but get up rather than lie in a scramble with a heavy-handed opponent.

  3. 3
    Adjustment

    Keep his hands busy in every position; activity from the clinch and from underneath carried the cards against Koren.

Danger Zone

How Rabindra Dhant loses

  • Tajima's reach and volume keep him on the outside, and two close rounds go to the busier man.

  • He spends long stretches underneath again, as he did against Murdoch, and leaves the outcome to a split panel.

Danger Zone

How Ryo Tajima loses

  • He plants to throw combinations and walks onto one of Dhant's power punches, the way Koren did in the third round.

  • His takedowns turn into scrambles, Dhant comes out on top, and the fight becomes the ground-and-pound finish Alintozon could not escape.

Conditional tactical scenario, not a statistical projection

Round 1: what to watch

Round 1 is about range. Watch whether Tajima's jab and reach keep Dhant at the end of his punches or whether Dhant closes behind feints and level changes. Both men started slowly in the tournament: Alintozon out-struck Dhant in the first round in Macau, and Tajima needed most of the first round to find his range against Koren. A clean Dhant right hand is the fastest way this fight ends.

Conditional tactical scenario, not a statistical projection

Round 2: what to watch

Round 2: the takedown exchanges start to matter. Tajima completed half of his tournament takedown attempts but held position only briefly, while Dhant stopped most of Murdoch's attempts and still spent long stretches underneath. Whoever wins the scrambles likely wins the round, and Dhant's mount finish of Alintozon came in a second round after one completed takedown.

Conditional tactical scenario, not a statistical projection

Round 3: what to watch

Round 3 sets experience on the cards against power on the feet. Tajima has gone past three rounds twice and kept his hands busy while held against the fence by Koren; Dhant finished Koren and Torepchi Dongak in third rounds and was at his most dangerous late against Murdoch. A Dhant behind on the cards should chase the finish; a Tajima ahead should keep his output high and avoid trading in the pocket.

05

The Verdict

The matchup read, the betting market, and the swing factors

Editorial handicapping

Rabindra Dhant 46% · Ryo Tajima 54%

Subjective analyst estimates for the announced opponent and distance. These are not calibrated outputs from the prediction model. Method probabilities are portions of the overall outcome distribution, not percentages conditional on winning.

Ryo Tajima is estimated at 54%, mostly through a decision. He has fought the deeper opposition, holds the Pancrase bantamweight title, carries a two-inch reach edge and won both tournament bouts on the cards. The margin is narrow because he was out-landed in his quarterfinal and held down for more than eight minutes in his semifinal.

Rabindra Dhant is estimated at 46%. Eight of his eleven wins are knockouts, he finished common opponent Chungreng Koren, and his ground-and-pound stopped Kimbert Alintozon from mount. His clearest route is a stoppage; on the cards he gave up long stretches of control to Kasib Murdoch and needed a split decision.

The assessment is for 3 five-minute rounds at 135 lb. The six outcomes are mutually exclusive allocations conditional on a decisive result; method shares are not conditional on the fighter winning. Combined inside-distance probability is 45%, and a decision is 55%.

Tajima rises toward 62% if his jab and reach keep Dhant at range in the first round and his takedowns hold; Dhant rises toward 54% if he lands clean early or wins the scrambles from top position. Scenario range for Ryo Tajima: 46–62%; the complementary range for Rabindra Dhant is 38–54%. These are judgment-based scenarios, not statistical confidence intervals.

If you only read 2 things
1

Ryo Tajima 54% / Rabindra Dhant 46%. Tajima is the narrow editorial selection: his reach, championship experience and output fit a fifteen-minute fight, while Dhant's best route is a stoppage against a man who has never been stopped by strikes.

2

Dhant rises toward 54% if he makes the exchanges short and heavy and turns Tajima's takedown attempts into top position, the route that finished Alintozon.

Editorial outcome distribution · 100 percentage points

Each square represents one percentage point of the subjective editorial distribution. This is an illustration of the assigned probabilities, not a simulation or an observed result.

Rabindra Dhant · KO/TKO — 23%Rabindra Dhant · Decision — 20%Rabindra Dhant · Submission — 3%Ryo Tajima · KO/TKO — 15%Ryo Tajima · Decision — 35%Ryo Tajima · Submission — 4%

Each square = 1 editorial percentage point. Rabindra Dhant gold · Ryo Tajima orange · color opacity: 100% = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Rabindra Dhant win probability
0%
23%
20%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Eight of eleven wins are knockouts, including a third-round finish of common opponent Koren and a mounted ground-and-pound stoppage of Alintozon, and Tajima absorbed more than he landed against Ti Haitao.

  • Two decision wins, both since 2024, and a split decision over Murdoch show he can win rounds on impact, but Tajima's output makes close rounds harder to bank.

  • One career submission, a first-round rear-naked choke in 2023, and a top game built for strikes rather than chokes keep this path narrow.

Ryo Tajima win probability
0%
15%
35%
4%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Six career stoppages by strikes, including a first-round finish of Rui Imura and two corner stoppages in later rounds, but Dhant has never been stopped.

  • Five decision wins and nine fights past round two, including a twenty-five-minute title fight, and both tournament wins came on the cards.

  • One career submission, a 2021 armbar, and no submission attempts in either tournament bout make a tap the least likely route.

Editorial estimate vs market

Rabindra Dhant

Insufficient price data
Editorial win estimate
46%
Fair odds
+117
Reference quote
—
Fair decimal odds
2.17
Estimated EV
—
Edge vs no-vig market
—

Ryo Tajima

Insufficient price data
Editorial win estimate
54%
Fair odds
-117
Reference quote
—
Fair decimal odds
1.85
Estimated EV
—
Edge vs no-vig market
—

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash marks a price without a same-book pair to compare.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Quotes listed with a date but no time are treated as undated.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Rabindra Dhant

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 2.18 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Ryo Tajima

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 1.86 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Fair prices and expected value are arithmetic consequences of these subjective estimates. A positive calculation at an old quote is not a verified current opportunity.

Conviction
0
3/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Confidence reflects the quality and comparability of the evidence, not the size of the win probability. Lean: Ryo Tajima.

What backs the lean

  • Tajima has fought the deeper opposition, winning the Pancrase bantamweight title and going twenty-five minutes in a title fight, and he holds a two-inch reach edge.

  • Three-round decisions suit him: nine of his fifteen fights have gone past the second round, and he won both tournament bouts on the cards.

What limits it

  • Dhant has the heavier hands: eight of his eleven wins are knockouts, and he stopped common opponent Chungreng Koren, whom Tajima could only outpoint.

  • Tajima was out-landed by Ti Haitao in a split-decision quarterfinal and held down for more than eight minutes by Koren in the semifinal.

  • These are subjective editorial estimates without out-of-sample calibration; numerical precision does not imply measurement precision.

Final Assessment

Ryo Tajima 54% / Rabindra Dhant 46%. Tajima is the narrow editorial selection: his reach, championship experience and output fit a fifteen-minute fight, while Dhant's best route is a stoppage against a man who has never been stopped by strikes.

Dhant rises toward 54% if he makes the exchanges short and heavy and turns Tajima's takedown attempts into top position, the route that finished Alintozon.

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