Payton Talbott vs Deiveson Figueiredo: analysis & prediction

CO-MAIN · BANTAMWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC 332: Silva vs. Wang
Payton Talbott — Bantamweight fighter

Payton Talbott

11W1L
Volume Striker
VS
Deiveson Figueiredo — Bantamweight fighter

Deiveson Figueiredo

“Deus da Guerra”
25W7L1D
Phase-Changing Veteran

Talbott's volume needs to survive Figueiredo's phase changes

BantamweightDelta Center, Salt Lake City, UtahOctober 3, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon · Co-main event

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Talbott wants a long, upright fight: jab-led combinations from range, a sprawl on every entry, then straight back to striking, the approach that beat Henry Cejudo on the cards. Figueiredo will counter his way into the clinch and chain takedowns into guillotine threats. Talbott's danger is treating one defended shot as the end of the sequence; if the follow-up attempts connect, the veteran's leverage takes over.

Paths that change the fight

  • Payton TalbottKeep combinations controlled, defend connected entries, and resume striking only once he has a secure exit — bank three rounds of 6.62 SLpM optics.
  • Deiveson FigueiredoUse countering threats to reach contact, chain grappling attacks, and make Talbott defend before the next striking exchange.
What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 4/10
  • Neutral striking time share is the fight's main open question.
  • 1.18 Sub/15 — one clean chain flips the fight (Song Yadong template).

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Payton Talbott

Freshness unverified
Model win probability
58%
Fair odds
-138
Reference quote
-650 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds
1.72

Deiveson Figueiredo

Freshness unverified
Model win probability
42%
Fair odds
+138
Reference quote
+482 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds
2.38
Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Sources and data limitations

Career statistics and fight results through September 2026. Composite scores, round splits, division ranks, simulation buckets, probabilities and fair prices are MMA Analytics model outputs.

Model methodology
Read the evidenceInspect prices and assumptions
01

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Talbott has shown he can win without the knockout, out-pointing Henry Cejudo, while former flyweight champion Figueiredo has lost four of his last five. The question is whether a young volume striker can keep a veteran who lives on counters and scrambles from ever getting hold of him. Figueiredo's danger has always arrived early: every one of his stoppages came inside the first two rounds, and the guillotine remains his signature weapon. The swing factor is whether he still has the burst to close on a much taller, younger opponent before the volume piles up.

Payton Talbott
Attribute
Deiveson Figueiredo
28Ten-year gap
Age
38
5' 10"+5" Talbott
Height
5' 5"
70.5"+2.5" Talbott
Reach
68"
40"
Leg Reach
38"
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
11-1-0
Pro Record
25-7-1
5-1
UFC Record
14-7-1
Volume striking, sprawl-first
Fighting Style
Boxing entries, chains to grappling

Talbott is five inches taller with a slight reach edge at bantamweight — meaningful for keeping Figueiredo at the end of combinations. Figueiredo is 38 and has lost four of his last five UFC bouts (Song Yadong submission, Umar Nurmagomedov decision, Montel Jackson win sandwiched between losses to Sandhagen and Yan).

Venue Factor
Three rounds favour the fighter who can bank neutral striking minutes if takedowns stall. Figueiredo's championship mileage at 125 and 135 is an asset in scrambles but a tax in sustained volume — Talbott's Cejudo and Lima decisions show he can survive veteran wrestling pressure for fifteen minutes when the pace stays upright.
02

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Payton Talbott in the Octagon

Payton Talbott

Pro Record
11-1-0
UFC Record
5-1 — W DEC Cejudo (UFC 323) · W DEC Lima (UFC 317) · L DEC Barcelos (UFC 311)
Streak
Two wins — decisions over Henry Cejudo and Felipe Lima (2025)
Finish Rate
7 KO/TKO, 1 submission in 11 pro wins (~73% finish)
Avg Fight Time
10:16 (6 UFC bouts)
Chin · Never knocked down in six UFC boutsSOS · Rising UFCVolume striker

Six UFC bouts in two years — fast rise with a single decision loss to Barcelos separating hype from proof. The 2025 run is the thesis: out-point Henry Cejudo over three rounds, then do the same to Felipe Lima. Before that, stoppages of Nick Aguirre, Cameron Saaiman and Yanis Ghemmouri showed finishing equity, but this co-main asks whether 6.62 SLpM travels against a former flyweight champion who still chains guillotines and back takes.

Deiveson Figueiredo preparing to strike

Deiveson Figueiredo

Pro Record
25-7-1
UFC Record
14-7-1 across twenty-two completed UFC bouts
Streak
Two straight losses — guillotine submission to Song Yadong (May 2026)
Finish Rate
9 KO/TKO and 9 submissions in 25 wins — balanced finisher
Avg Fight Time
12:43 (22 UFC bouts)
Chin · AverageSOS · Championship-levelPhase-changing veteran

Former flyweight champion with a declining UFC ledger: four losses in the last five including a Cory Sandhagen TKO and back-to-back 2026 defeats to Umar Nurmagomedov and Song Yadong. At bantamweight he still lands 0.64 knockdowns and attempts 1.18 submissions per fifteen minutes — the fight compresses whenever he turns boxing entries into clinch or mat sequences.

Payton Talbott
0 dealt · 0 absorbed
Knockdown Exchange
Knockdowns dealt vs absorbed.
Deiveson Figueiredo
0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Payton Talbottsignature weapons

Punching combinationsAll seven KO/TKO wins; 6.62 SLpM at 57% accuracy scores repeatedly if range holds
×7
Rear-naked chokeThird-round finish of Nick Aguirre in his UFC debut
×1

Deiveson Figueiredosignature weapons

Guillotine chokeFive of nine submission wins, including Tim Elliott and Alex Perez; 1.18 Sub/15 keeps the neck in play
×5
Punching powerNine KO/TKO wins; 0.64 KD/15 with selective 2.57 SLpM — lower volume, higher leverage per clean connection
×9

Payton Talbott

W
Henry Cejudo
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: elite

R3
UFC 323 — Dec 2025
W
Felipe Lima
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: prospect

R3
UFC 317 — Jun 2025
L
Raoni Barcelos
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: veteran

R3
UFC 311 — Jan 2025
W
Yanis Ghemmouri
KO/TKO

Opponent context: prospect

R1
UFC 303 — Jun 2024
W
Cameron Saaiman
KO/TKO

Opponent context: prospect

R2
UFC on ESPN — Mar 2024
Pattern

The last year is decisions-first: beat an Olympic wrestler and a rising prospect on the cards, with the Barcelos loss showing he can be out-worked over fifteen minutes. Early-career knockouts remain on tape, but the co-main path runs through range and takedown defence, not hunting a single exchange.

Deiveson Figueiredo

L
Song Yadong
Submission

Opponent context: ranked

R2
UFC Fight Night — May 2026
L
Umar Nurmagomedov
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: elite

R3
UFC 324 — Jan 2026
W
Montel Jackson
Decision — Split

Opponent context: veteran

R3
UFC Fight Night — Oct 2025
L
Cory Sandhagen
KO/TKO

Opponent context: elite

R2
UFC on ESPN — May 2025
L
Petr Yan
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: elite

R5
UFC Fight Night — Nov 2024
Pattern

Four losses in five — submission to Song, out-grappled by Umar, stopped by Sandhagen, out-pointed by Yan over five rounds — with one Jackson split decision win in the middle. The through-line is leverage: fewer strikes landed per minute, but each clinch or takedown still carries guillotine, arm-triangle, or back-take equity.

Payton Talbott

Win Methods
Wins by Round

Deiveson Figueiredo

Win Methods
Wins by Round
Critical Insight
Talbott's seven KO/TKO wins mostly came in rounds two and three, and his last two wins went the distance — the model's 28-point decision bucket for Talbott reflects that shift. Figueiredo's even 9 KO / 9 submission split, with all eighteen finishes inside the first two rounds, keeps the 24-point submission share live even at 38.

Opposition strength (no shared opponents)

Without a reliable shared-opponent table, compare who each fighter has been tested against using SOS tier, UFC sample size, and recent elite-tier form — not raw records alone.

FactorPaytonDeiveson
Strength of schedule (SOS tier)Rising UFC — Beat Cejudo and Lima on the cards; lone loss to Raoni Barcelos; early KOs vs Saaiman and GhemmouriChampionship-level — Former flyweight champ; losses to Yan, Sandhagen, Umar, Song; win vs Montel Jackson at 135
UFC sample5-1 — W DEC Cejudo (UFC 323) · W DEC Lima (UFC 317) · L DEC Barcelos (UFC 311)14-7-1 across twenty-two completed UFC bouts
Recent ranked / elite touches (last 5)1 elite · 1 veteran tier3 elite · 1 veteran tier
Form-window difficulty edge: Fighter B (11 vs 8 tier points in listed bouts).
Last three opponentsHenry Cejudo, Felipe Lima, Raoni BarcelosSong Yadong, Umar Nurmagomedov, Montel Jackson
03

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and UFC experience before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

SLpM 25% · StrAcc 30% · StrDef 30% · SApM 15%

0
Payton
0
Deiveson

Talbott owns volume, accuracy, and absorption (3.41 vs 3.43). Figueiredo owns defence (50% vs 47%) narrowly.

Grappling

TD/15 25% · TDAcc 25% · TDDef 30% · Sub/15 20%

0
Payton
0
Deiveson

Figueiredo's 1.61 TD/15 and 1.18 Sub/15 dominate; Talbott's 78% TDDef is the counter-weight on paper.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

0
Payton
0
Deiveson

Slight aggregate edge to Talbott on strikes; Figueiredo on grappling — phase decides which half matters.

Cardio

Fight time · pace · late-round output

0
Paytonfew UFC fights
0
Deivesonfew UFC fights

Both land more in round three (Talbott 25.5, Figueiredo 12.3), but Figueiredo's control time falls from 58 to 23 seconds and his accuracy from 60% to 49% by R3; the gauge stays even rather than price age.

Overall

(Technical + Cardio) / 2

0.0
Payton
0.0
Deiveson

Near-even on paper; the 58/42 lean comes from volume and range, and conviction stays 4/10 because the share of time spent in neutral striking decides the fight.

MetricPaytonDeiveson
Avg Fight Time10:16 (6 UFC bouts)12:43 (22 UFC bouts)
Pace Tier6.62 SLpM — elite volume2.57 SLpM — selective
TD Defence78% career57% career
Submission Rate0.2 Sub/151.18 Sub/15
Champ Rounds3-round bout3-round bout

Archetype Base Rate

Volume Striker 58%42% Phase-Changing Veteran

Matchup-specific model lean · 58/42 model lean: favour Talbott on SLpM, StrAcc, and TDDef over three rounds of neutral striking; cap confidence because Figueiredo's Sub/TD/KD rates compress the fight on contact.

Payton TalbottDeiveson Figueiredo

Bantamweight

· 55 fighters

Rank bars use the recorded division cohort. Where a rank is unavailable, the comparison shows the difference from the published division average; the white marker denotes equality. Percentage differences are percentage points (pp). Higher is not always better: fewer strikes absorbed is preferable. Missing benchmarks are not estimated.

StatPaytonPayton comparisonDiv avgDeiveson comparisonDeiveson
SLpM6.62
4/55
~4.45
48/55
2.57
Str Acc57%
12/55
~48%
18/55
54%
Str Def47%
38/55
~52%
32/55
50%
SApM3.41
28/55
~3.85
30/55
3.43
Damage Ratio1.94
Not available
~1.12
Not available
0.75
TD/150.78
35/55
~1.65
22/55
1.61
TD Def78%
14/55
~68%
42/55
57%
Sub/150.20
44/55
~0.55
8/55
1.18
Avg Fight Time10:16 (UFC)
Not available
—
Not available
12:43 (UFC)
Statistical Verdict
Talbott owns the striking-volume inputs that matter for three-round optics; Figueiredo owns submission attempt rate and takedown pace. Division ranks place each fighter within the ~55-fighter bantamweight pool.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

Control Time per Round (sec)

Payton Talbott

  • Six UFC bouts — round averages blend the Ghemmouri, Saaiman and Aguirre stoppages with three-round decisions against Cejudo, Lima and Barcelos.
  • Output climbs after the first round (21.5 landed in R1, 26.2 in R2, 25.5 in R3) while accuracy settles at 57%.
  • He works from top position more than his 0.2 Sub/15 suggests — 37% of his R2 strikes and more than a minute of control per round after R1 come on the mat.
  • Two of his three UFC knockdowns came in round two.

Deiveson Figueiredo

  • Twenty-two UFC bouts, with twelve reaching a third round — rows here stop at R3 because this fight is scheduled for fifteen minutes.
  • Grappling is front-loaded: nearly a minute of control in R1 and R2, falling to 23 seconds in R3, while ground strikes drop from 24% to 7% of his output.
  • Knockdowns peak in R2 (0.32 per round) — six of his twelve UFC knockdowns came in the second round.
  • Accuracy slides from 60% in R1 to 49% in R3.
Critical Insight
The central question remains how much time stays in neutral striking. Talbott's volume holds or rises after the first round; Figueiredo's control and accuracy fade by the third. If the fight reaches R3 upright, Talbott's rows compound; if Figueiredo lands his takedowns and front headlocks early, the table flips before that.

Strike targeting

Payton

Head
72%
Body
20%
Legs
8%

Deiveson

Head
60%
Body
28%
Legs
12%

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

PaytonDeiveson
65%Distance73%
12%Clinch8%
23%Ground19%

Share of significant strikes landed at distance, in the clinch and on the ground across each fighter's UFC rounds, weighted by strike volume.

04

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much
Open SpacePayton owns it

6.62 SLpM and +5" height vs 2.57 SLpM selective striking

Pocket / ExchangesEven

0.64 KD/15 for Figueiredo vs Talbott's 0.59 — both carry knockdown equity

ClinchDeiveson owns it

1.18 Sub/15 and guillotine history — Talbott must hand-fight

GroundDeiveson owns it

Figueiredo back-take and submission chains vs Talbott's 0.2 Sub/15

Path to Victory

Payton Talbott

Keep combinations controlled, defend connected entries, and resume striking only once he has a secure exit — bank three rounds of 6.62 SLpM optics.

Why they win
01
Striking workload

6.62 SLpM at 57% accuracy — more than double Figueiredo's landing rate.

02
Takedown defence

78% TDDef supports the sprawl-and-strike route; Cejudo fight tested it for fifteen minutes.

03
Physical frame at 135

Five-inch height edge and 70.5-inch reach help keep Figueiredo at the end of combinations.

04
Youth and momentum

28 years old on a two-fight decision win streak against ranked-style opposition.

05
Damage ratio

Lands 1.94× what he absorbs — positive exchange economics at range.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Jab-layered combinations

    Use height and reach; do not over-commit into level changes.

  2. 2
    Sprawl to exit

    Defend the first entry, then re-engage only from safe distance — not in the clinch.

  3. 3
    Body and leg work

    Slow Figueiredo's entries and keep the fight in open space.

  4. 4
    Respect the guillotine

    Hand-fight on single-legs; Song Yadong film is mandatory prep.

  5. 5
    Win minutes, not one shot

    Cejudo and Lima templates — decision path is the modal outcome.

Path to Victory

Deiveson Figueiredo

Use countering threats to reach contact, chain grappling attacks, and make Talbott defend before the next striking exchange.

Why they win
01
Grappling leverage

1.61 TD/15 and 1.18 Sub/15 — each entry can end the round or the fight.

02
Knockdown power

0.64 KD/15 despite low volume — one clean counter changes scoring.

03
Championship experience

Twenty-two UFC bouts and former title-holder — comfortable in chaotic scrambles.

04
Same tax on less work

Both absorb about 3.4 significant strikes per minute (3.41 vs 3.43); Figueiredo lands far fewer but can afford to wait for entries.

05
Submission equity

Nine career subs — guillotine and back-take paths remain live at 38.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Counter into clinch

    Make Talbott pay for volume with short hooks and inside ties.

  2. 2
    Chain wrestling

    1.61 TD/15 only matters if second and third attempts follow the first.

  3. 3
    Front headlock series

    Guillotine threats — five of his nine submission wins — slow Talbott's re-striking.

  4. 4
    Lower volume, higher leverage

    2.57 SLpM is acceptable if knockdowns and control minutes swing rounds.

  5. 5
    Target the body

    Tax Talbott's pace and compress range late in each round.

Danger Zone

How Payton Talbott loses

  • One takedown chains into back control or a guillotine before range is established — the model's primary reversal.

  • Three rounds of partial defence without re-striking — judges see Figueiredo's power moments as round winners.

  • Barcelos repeat — out-worked on the cards when volume does not translate to clean optics.

Danger Zone

How Deiveson Figueiredo loses

  • Sprawls and long combinations accumulate — Talbott's 58% model share lives in neutral space.

  • Age and cardio tax in minute twelve — volume never stops after failed entries.

  • Sandhagen-style damage without a finish — loses every round on significant strikes.

Matchup interpretation

The phase that changes the comparison

Talbott's striking pace is much higher, giving him a route through repeated scoring exchanges. Figueiredo's wrestling and submission attempts give him ways to interrupt that rhythm. Talbott cannot treat defensive success on the first entry as the end of the sequence.

Counterargument

What would change the selection

Figueiredo's submission activity and power give him ways to make a lower-volume fight more consequential. Talbott must avoid treating pressure as safety.

3 rounds

Distance and repeatability

The volume gap is a useful starting point, but the amount of time spent in neutral striking remains the central uncertainty.

58
model win % for Talbott
Co-main context

Age vs. pace

Ten years separate them. Three rounds favour Talbott's SLpM if entries fail; Figueiredo needs contact early before cardio and attrition widen the gap.

Method split

Submission tail

Twenty-four of Figueiredo's forty-two model points are submissions — the fight can flip in one sequence even if strikes favour Talbott for twelve minutes.

24
Figueiredo submission share (%)

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

05

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 4 things
1

Payton Talbott's 6.62 SLpM, 57% accuracy, and 78% takedown defence define the repeatable route — provided he re-strikes after every defended entry.

2

Deiveson Figueiredo's 1.18 Sub/15 and 1.61 TD/15 compress the fight whenever contact sticks; the model's primary reversal is one takedown into back control or a guillotine.

3

Model: Talbott 58% / Figueiredo 42%, conviction 4/10. Fair price −138 / +138. BetOnline posts Talbott -650 / Figueiredo +482 — an 83–17 market against a 58/42 model, a gap wide enough to review before backing either side.

4

The sharpest split on this board is how the fight ends: BetOnline prices a KO/TKO finish at -105 (51.2%) and a submission at +600 (14.3%), while the model has each at 32% — the market is paying for Talbott's hands and discounting Figueiredo's neck attacks.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Talbott Decision — 28%Talbott KO/TKO — 22%Talbott Submission — 8%Figueiredo KO/TKO — 10%Figueiredo Decision — 8%Figueiredo Submission — 24%

Each square = 1 model percentage point. Payton Talbott gold · Deiveson Figueiredo orange · color opacity: 100% = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Neutral striking share

The central question of the fight — the model favours Talbott if range holds.

Volume vs. phase changes

6.62 SLpM against 1.61 TD/15 and 1.18 Sub/15 defines the fork.

Talbott TDDef

78% supports the lean but does not settle multi-attempt chains.

Figueiredo age and form

38 on a four-loss-in-five skid — caps conviction at 4/10.

Knockdown rates

0.59 vs 0.64 KD/15 keeps early swing equity for both sides.

Fight Scripts

0%
of simulations

The Cejudo Repeat

Talbott sprawls on entries, wins combination exchanges at range, and takes a unanimous 29-28 or 30-27 — the modal decision script.

Scripted outcomes for Payton Talbott vs Deiveson Figueiredo — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Payton Talbott win probability
0%
22%
28%
8%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Twenty-two points — early KO wins on tape plus volume-driven stoppages if Figueiredo fades.

  • Twenty-eight points — Cejudo and Lima proofs; largest Talbott bucket when range holds.

  • Eight points — tail outcome only; 0.2 Sub/15 in the UFC.

Deiveson Figueiredo win probability
0%
10%
8%
24%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Ten points — 0.64 KD/15 and nine career KO/TKO wins, all inside two rounds.

  • Eight points — Jackson win shows he can still out-point at 135, but volume mismatch is steep.

  • Twenty-four points — 1.18 Sub/15 and Song Yadong reversal; primary underdog finish path.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round
R1
Payton
R2
Even
R3
Payton
29-28 Talbott
Volume in R1 and R3 with a contested middle round
Modal card inside the 28% decision bucket
30-27 Talbott
Range held all three rounds without a submission scare
Live if TDDef holds on every chain
29-28 Figueiredo
R2 grappling steals the middle round plus a power moment
Primary path inside the 8% decision share

Model and price

Payton Talbott

Freshness unverified
Model win probability
58%
Fair odds
-138
Reference quote
-650 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds
1.72
Estimated EV
-33.1%
Edge vs no-vig market
-25.5 pp

Deiveson Figueiredo

Freshness unverified
Model win probability
42%
Fair odds
+138
Reference quote
+482 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds
2.38
Estimated EV
+144.4%
Edge vs no-vig market
+25.5 pp

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Payton Talbott

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 1.73 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Deiveson Figueiredo

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 2.39 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Analyst prop read

6 value leans6 large gaps4 fair10 avoid
Deiveson Figueiredo by submission+1500+17.8ppFight ends by submission+600+17.7ppDeiveson Figueiredo by submission or decision+525+16.0ppDeiveson Figueiredo in round 1+1800+10.7pp+2 more in table
Full prop table (26)Expand for odds, model %, implied % and analyst verdict per prop

Green rows mark props where our analysis sees value at the recorded BetOnline price. Red rows are overpriced relative to the model share. These are snapshots — verify the line is still available before acting.

Prop probabilities, break-even prices and analyst verdict at the recorded quote.
PropReference quoteImplied %Model %Fair oddsDifference (pp)Estimated EVOur read
Deiveson Figueiredo by submission+1500BetOnline6.3%24%+3174.17 decimal+17.8+284.0%Value lean
Fight ends by submission+600BetOnline14.3%32%+2123.13 decimal+17.7+124.0%Value lean
Deiveson Figueiredo by submission or decision+525BetOnline16.0%32%+2123.13 decimal+16.0+100.0%Value lean
Deiveson Figueiredo in round 1+1800BetOnline5.3%16%+5256.25 decimal+10.7+204.0%Value lean
Deiveson Figueiredo in round 2+2400BetOnline4.0%12%+7338.33 decimal+8.0+200.0%Value lean
Deiveson Figueiredo by KO/TKO+1500BetOnline6.3%10%+90010.00 decimal+3.8+60.0%Value lean
Deiveson Figueiredo inside the distance (no action on a decision)+400BetOnline20.0%53%-1131.89 decimal+33.0+165.0%Large gap — review
Deiveson Figueiredo wins inside the distance+925BetOnline9.8%34%+1942.94 decimal+24.2+248.5%Large gap — review
Payton Talbott by KO/TKO+115BetOnline46.5%22%+3554.55 decimal-24.5-52.7%Large gap — review
Payton Talbott wins inside the distance-130BetOnline56.5%30%+2333.33 decimal-26.5-46.9%Large gap — review
Payton Talbott by KO/TKO or decision-400BetOnline80.0%50%+1002.00 decimal-30.0-37.5%Large gap — review
Payton Talbott inside the distance (no action on a decision)-600BetOnline85.7%47%+1132.13 decimal-38.7-45.2%Large gap — review
Under 2.5 rounds-104BetOnline51.0%56%-1271.79 decimal+5.0+9.8%Fair price
Fight does not go the distance-145BetOnline59.2%64%-1781.56 decimal+4.8+8.1%Fair price
Deiveson Figueiredo in round 3+3000BetOnline3.2%6%+156716.67 decimal+2.8+86.0%Fair price
Deiveson Figueiredo by KO/TKO or decision+525BetOnline16.0%18%+4565.56 decimal+2.0+12.5%Fair price
Payton Talbott by submission+800BetOnline11.1%8%+115012.50 decimal-3.1-28.0%Avoid / overpriced
Deiveson Figueiredo by decision+650BetOnline13.3%8%+115012.50 decimal-5.3-40.0%Avoid / overpriced
Payton Talbott in round 3+500BetOnline16.7%11%+8099.09 decimal-5.7-34.0%Avoid / overpriced
Over 2.5 rounds-112BetOnline52.8%45%+1222.22 decimal-7.8-14.8%Avoid / overpriced
Payton Talbott in round 2+375BetOnline21.1%12%+7338.33 decimal-9.1-43.0%Avoid / overpriced
Fight goes the distance+115BetOnline46.5%36%+1782.78 decimal-10.5-22.6%Avoid / overpriced
Payton Talbott by submission or decision+110BetOnline47.6%36%+1782.78 decimal-11.6-24.4%Avoid / overpriced
Payton Talbott by decision+145BetOnline40.8%28%+2573.57 decimal-12.8-31.4%Avoid / overpriced
Payton Talbott in round 1+300BetOnline25.0%7%+132914.29 decimal-18.0-72.0%Avoid / overpriced
Fight ends by KO/TKO-105BetOnline51.2%32%+2123.13 decimal-19.2-37.5%Avoid / overpriced

Prop differences use raw implied probability, including the bookmaker margin. They are not the no-vig moneyline edge above.

Analyst price notes

Written against the prices of September 30.

BetOnline and the model disagree sharply here: the book makes Talbott -650, 83–17 once the margin is removed, while the model has him 58–42 with fair odds of -138, so Figueiredo +482 (17.2% implied against 42%) is a large gap to review, not a value call. The value leans that clear the bar all run through Figueiredo's grappling: Figueiredo by submission at +1500 (6.3% implied vs a 24% model share, fair +317), the fight ends by submission at +600 (14.3% vs 32%, fair +212) and Figueiredo by submission or decision at +525 (16% vs 32%, fair +212). The model's case is 1.18 submission attempts and 1.61 takedowns per fifteen, five career guillotine wins and first rounds that carry his heaviest grappling, which is also why Figueiredo in round 1 at +1800 (5.3% vs 16%, fair +525) grades as a value lean. Avoid the knockout pricing: the fight ends by KO/TKO at -105 (51.2% vs 32%) and Talbott in round 1 at +300 (25% vs 7%) ask far more than the model's finish curve allows. Six props land in the large-gap band — among them Talbott by KO/TKO at +115 (46.5% vs 22%), Talbott wins inside the distance at -130 (56.5% vs 30%) and Figueiredo wins inside the distance at +925 (9.8% vs 34%) — and the market's side deserves real weight: Figueiredo is 38 with four losses in his last five, Talbott has never been knocked down in the UFC, and the model's 42% leans on career rates that may flatter the current Figueiredo.

Conviction
0
4/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Favour Talbott on 6.62 SLpM, 57% StrAcc, and 78% TDDef over three rounds of neutral striking. Figueiredo's 1.18 Sub/15, 1.61 TD/15, and 0.64 KD/15 compress the fight whenever contact sticks — age and bantamweight attrition cap confidence at 4/10. Lean: Payton Talbott.

What backs the lean

  • 6.62 SLpM and 57% accuracy — clear volume edge at 135.

  • 78% takedown defence and fifteen-minute proofs vs Cejudo and Lima.

  • Physical advantages — height, reach, and ten-year youth gap.

  • Figueiredo on a four-loss-in-five UFC run entering co-main.

What limits it

  • Neutral striking time share is the fight's main open question.

  • 1.18 Sub/15 — one clean chain flips the fight (Song Yadong template).

  • Figueiredo still lands 0.64 KD/15 despite low volume.

  • Talbott lost optics to Barcelos — can be out-worked over three rounds.

Final Assessment

Payton Talbott vs Deiveson Figueiredo is a co-main volume-versus-phase fight at bantamweight. Talbott's profile is striking-heavy — 6.62 significant strikes per minute, 57% accuracy, 47% defence, and 78% takedown defence — and his last two wins went the distance against Henry Cejudo and Felipe Lima. Figueiredo lands far less volume (2.57 SLpM) but brings 1.61 takedowns and 1.18 submission attempts per fifteen minutes, 0.64 knockdowns dealt, and twenty-two UFC bouts of championship-level chaos.

The model leans Talbott 58% to Figueiredo 42% with conviction 4 out of 10 because the repeatable three-round route is sustained striking activity if range holds, while the primary reversal is Figueiredo chaining one clean takedown into back control or a guillotine before Talbott establishes safe exits. Method shares: Talbott 22 KO / 28 decision / 8 submission; Figueiredo 10 KO / 8 decision / 24 submission. Fair moneyline from the central estimate is Talbott −138 and Figueiredo +138; BetOnline posts Talbott -650 and Figueiredo +482, an 83–17 split once the margin is removed.

The honest read: take Talbott narrowly if you trust neutral minutes to accumulate, and treat every defended takedown as the start of the next exchange — not the end of the grappling threat. The market has settled that question firmly in Talbott's favour at -650; the model has not, which is why its cleanest angles are Figueiredo's submission props at +1500 and +525 rather than the large-gap moneyline. How much time stays standing is still the fight's central uncertainty.

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