Drakkar Klose vs Tommy Gantt – UFC Fight Night: Silva vs. Delgado Fight Analytics & Prediction

PRELIM · LIGHTWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Silva vs. Delgado

Drakkar Klose

16W3L1D

Pressure Wrestler

Tommy Gantt

12W0L

Length Finisher

Thirty-three Octagon rounds of evidence against two minutes and forty-seven seconds

LightweightDesert Diamond Arena, Glendale, ArizonaSeptember 12, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Klose can test Gantt through sustained exchanges, clinch pressure and repeated defensive decisions rather than an isolated opening burst. His larger UFC sample supports that approach, while Gantt's limited measured minutes leave considerable uncertainty about his responses once the first attack is stopped.

Paths that change the fight

Drakkar KloseBody lock, fence, judges. Eight of his ten UFC wins went to the cards off 70 seconds of first-round control — but he has to get inside 76 inches to start, and he has to do it without offering his neck.
Tommy GanttEither end of the fight, never the middle of it. A guillotine off the first level change or a knockout inside two rounds: eleven of his twelve wins are finishes and he has exactly one decision win as a professional.

What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 4/10

Six inches of reach into a striking defence ranked 63rd of 85, and two of his three career losses ended inside the distance.
Joel Álvarez, a long finishing lightweight, stopped him at 2:48 of a first round in December 2024.

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Drakkar Klose

Quote age unknown

Model win probability: 56%
Fair odds: -127

Reference quote: +383 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 1.79

Tommy Gantt

Quote age unknown

Model win probability: 44%
Fair odds: +127

Reference quote: -500 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 2.27

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Quotes listed with a date but no time are treated as undated.

Sources and data limitations

Career rates as of September 10, 2026. Tommy Gantt's combine his DWCS bout (2:47) and UFC debut (7:51), 10:38 in total; 31 significant strikes in that time gives 2.92 SLpM. Composite scores and forecasts remain editorial estimates; updated descriptive rates do not recalibrate the prediction.

Model methodology

Read the evidence Inspect prices and assumptions

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Gantt has a UFC debut win over Artur Minev, stopped at 2:51 of round two in May 2026. His published career rates combine that fight with DWCS: 2.92 significant strikes landed and 0.85 absorbed per minute, and 11.29 takedowns per 15 minutes. Two short appearances remain a small sample against Klose’s longer UFC experience.

Drakkar Klose

Attribute

Tommy Gantt

Age

5'9"

Height

+2" Gantt5'11"

70"

Reach

+6" Gantt · analysis lists 76.4"76"

—

Leg Reach

—

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

Kalamazoo, USA

Origin

Belleville, USA

The MMA Lab, Arizona

Team

The Academy

Jan 15, 2017

Octagon Debut

May 16, 2026

Pressure wrestling, clinch volume

Fighting Style

Length and finishes — power and guillotine

Gantt owns every physical column: two inches of height, six inches of reach and five years. Klose is 5'9" with a 70-inch reach, short even for a lightweight, and his whole career has been built on erasing that gap — 210 of his 642 career UFC significant strikes have landed in the clinch, 33% of the total, against just 8% on the ground. Length is the entire premise of Gantt's case, and whether he can defend takedowns is the biggest open question on this page — the exact factor that decides whether the body lock works.

Venue Factor
Three rounds is the veteran's format. Klose has reached a third round nine times in the Octagon and his output rises there to 23.2 significant strikes, more than either of the first two, while Gantt has one decision among twelve professional wins, only two of which went past the second round. Glendale's standard cage gives Klose the fence he needs. The six inches of reach are what he has to cross to reach it.

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Drakkar Klose

Pro Record

16-3-1

UFC Record

10-3 across thirteen bouts since January 2017

Streak

Won his last — unanimous decision over Edson Barboza (UFC 319, Aug 16, 2025)

Finish Rate

38% of wins (6 of 16) — 6 KO/TKO

Avg Fight Time

11:37

Chin · Average — two inside-distance lossesSOS · Proven UFCPressure wrestler into clinch volume

Nine and a half years in the Octagon on an unusually thin schedule. Thirteen UFC bouts between January 2017 and August 2025 is one appearance every 8.6 months, and the gaps are lopsided: 770 days between the Beneil Dariush loss in March 2020 and the Brandon Jenkins knockout in April 2022, then 490 more between Rafa Garcia and Joe Solecki. He walks into Glendale 392 days after out-pointing Edson Barboza at UFC 319. The encouraging half of that pattern is that both of his longest layoffs ended in knockouts — Jenkins in 0:33 of the second, Solecki in 1:41 of the first, the only two finishes of his UFC career and both from wrestling power rather than his hands. The rest of the profile has barely moved in nine years: 55% striking accuracy that ranks 10th of 85 lightweights, 49% striking defence that ranks 63rd, and zero submission wins in sixteen.

Tommy Gantt

Pro Record

12-0-0 (1 NC)

UFC Record

1-0 — TKO of Artur Minev on debut

Streak

Twelve straight, undefeated as a professional

Finish Rate

92% of wins (11 of 12) — 6 KO/TKO, 5 submissions

Avg Fight Time

2:47 (single statistical record bout)

Chin · Untested at this levelSOS · BuildingLength finisher — power and guillotine

A twenty-two-month run from regional cards to a UFC win. Josh Henry in November 2024, Anthony Benevides in January 2025, Deven Paulsen in February 2025 — three finishes — then a guillotine on Adam Livingston at 2:47 of the first on the Contender Series in September 2025, then a TKO of Artur Minev from back mount at 2:51 of the second on his Octagon debut in May 2026. Eleven of his twelve wins are finishes and only one has gone to the judges. The Livingston and Minev fights were both short, and they are not a stable measure of his power — six of his twelve wins are knockouts.

Drakkar Klose

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Knockdown Exchange

Knockdowns dealt vs absorbed.

Tommy Gantt

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Drakkar Klosesignature weapons

The SlamJoe Solecki, KO at 1:41 of the first (Dec 2023) and Brandon Jenkins, TKO at 0:33 of the second (Apr 2022) — both UFC finishes came from wrestling power, not his hands

×2

Clinch Volume210 of his 642 career UFC significant strikes land in the clinch (33%), and 41.8% of his first-round output does; eight of his ten UFC wins are decisions built on it

×8

Tommy Ganttsignature weapons

Submission Game (guillotine-led)Five submission wins in twelve, headlined by the Adam Livingston guillotine at 2:47 of the first on the Contender Series — aimed directly at a 27%-accuracy takedown shooter

×5

Back-Mount Ground StrikesArtur Minev, TKO at 2:51 of the second on his UFC debut, May 16, 2026 — the finishing translating to contracted opposition

×1

Drakkar Klose

Edson Barboza

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: elite

UFC 319 — Aug 16, 2025

Joel Álvarez

KO — flying knee and punches

Opponent context: veteran

R1 (2:48)

UFC FN: Covington vs. Buckley — Dec 14, 2024

Joaquim Silva

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: veteran

UFC 301 — May 4, 2024

Joe Solecki

KO/TKO — Slam

Opponent context: prospect

R1 (1:41)

UFC FN: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan — Dec 2, 2023

Rafa Garcia

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: prospect

UFC 277 — Jul 30, 2022

Pattern

Four wins and one loss in his last five, and the loss is the one that matters. Joel Álvarez — long, rangy, a finisher — ended him at 2:48 of a first round in December 2024. Everything else in the sequence is the grind working exactly as designed: fifteen minutes against Edson Barboza, fifteen against Joaquim Silva, fifteen against Rafa Garcia, all unanimous. The one finish in the run, Joe Solecki at 1:41, came from a slam. Three of these five fights went the full distance and he won all three, which is the whole argument for him: he is 8-for-8 on UFC decisions he has been favoured in and he does not lose rounds he is inside for.

Tommy Gantt

Artur Minev

KO/TKO — Punches from back mount

Opponent context: prospect

R2 (2:51)

UFC FN: Allen vs. Costa — May 16, 2026

Adam Livingston

SUB — Guillotine choke

Opponent context: ufc adjacent

R1 (2:47)

Contender Series 2025 — Sep 16, 2025

Deven Paulsen

TKO — punches

Opponent context: prospect

R1 (4:44)

Fight For It 24 — Feb 8, 2025

Anthony Benevides

KO — punch

Opponent context: prospect

R2 (2:34)

Reality Fighting — Jan 4, 2025

Josh Henry

KO/TKO — Strikes

Opponent context: prospect

R3 (0:16)

North Iowa Fights 20 — Nov 30, 2024

Pattern

Five fights, five finishes, twenty months. Two knockouts on regional cards, a Contender Series guillotine, and a UFC debut TKO from back mount — and, in the middle of it, a third-round stoppage of Josh Henry at 0:16, which with a 2024 decision over Montrel James is the only evidence among his wins that he can go past ten minutes. The competition curve is the honest caveat: Livingston and Minev are the two best names on the list, and Klose has beaten seven fighters more established than either. What the sequence does prove is that the finishing is not one-dimensional. He has ended fights with his hands, with a guillotine and from back mount.

Drakkar Klose

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Tommy Gantt

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Critical Insight
Klose: 6 KO/TKOs, 0 submissions and 10 decisions in 16 professional wins. All six of Klose's finishes came inside the first two rounds, three in round one. Gantt: 6 KO/TKOs, 5 submissions and 1 decision in 12 professional wins. Of Gantt's 11 finishes, five in round one, five in round two and one in round three. The round bars count every professional win, with decisions in the DEC column.

Opposition strength (no shared opponents)

Without a reliable shared-opponent table, compare who each fighter has been tested against using SOS tier, UFC sample size, and recent elite-tier form — not raw records alone.

Factor	Drakkar	Tommy
Strength of schedule (SOS tier)	Proven UFC — Beat Barboza, King Green, Solecki, Rafa Garcia, Joaquim Silva, Vannata and Diakiese; lost to Dariush, Álvarez and Teymur	Building — Beat Artur Minev on his UFC debut and Adam Livingston on the Contender Series; three regional finishes before that
UFC sample	10-3 across thirteen bouts since January 2017	1-0 — TKO of Artur Minev on debut
Recent ranked / elite touches (last 5)	1 elite · 2 veteran tier	0 elite · 0 veteran tier
Form-window difficulty edge: Fighter A (9 vs 4 tier points in listed bouts).
Last three opponents	Edson Barboza, Joel Álvarez, Joaquim Silva	Artur Minev, Adam Livingston, Deven Paulsen

Joel Álvarez (style proxy): There is no genuine shared opponent — Gantt has one UFC fight — so all three rows here are stylistic proxies. This one is the editorial assessment's central comparison — a long finishing lightweight ended Klose inside three minutes.
Beneil Dariush (style proxy): The other inside-the-distance loss on Klose's record, to a submission-credentialed finisher. Two of his three career losses ended early; both came against men who finish.
Edson Barboza (style proxy): Klose out-worked a genuinely elite striker across fifteen minutes ten months before this booking. Nothing on Gantt's record is within two tiers of it.

Drakkar

Tommyfew UFC fights

One composite point, and a 56-44 model line. The gap on this page is not technique — it is the thirteen-bout Octagon sample behind one man's numbers and the 2:47 behind the other's.

Metric	Drakkar	Tommy
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	11:37	2:47 (one logged bout)few UFC fights
Pace Tier	Mid-volume — 4.25 SLpM (48th/85)	Not measurable — 3 sig strikes on recordfew UFC fights
R3/R1 OutputR3/R1 OutputThird-round output as % of first-round output. Above 100% = builds into the fight; below = fades.	121% (23.2 vs 19.2 sig)	Limited round samplefew UFC fights
Slow Start %Slow Start %Share of fights where the fighter starts below their usual pace. 0% = fast starter every time.	Low — 19.2 sig at 59% accuracy in R1	Low — four of five logged wins ended inside two roundsfew UFC fights
Champ RoundsChamp RoundsEvidence from rounds 4-5 — only fighters with five-round experience have data here.	3-round bout	3-round bout

Archetype Base Rate

Pressure Wrestler 56%44% Length Finisher

Matchup-specific read of this booking · No historical archetype win-rate is applied. The 56-44 line is the editorial assessment's trim from the site model's 65-35 Klose, made to price Gantt's six inches of reach, his 92% career finish rate and the Álvarez tape. The trim is a judgement, not a computed base rate.

Drakkar KloseTommy Gantt

Lightweight

· 85 fighters

Rank bars use the recorded division cohort. Where no rank is shown, the comparison shows the difference from the published division average; the white marker denotes equality. Percentage differences are percentage points (pp). Higher is not always better: fewer strikes absorbed is preferable.

Stat	Drakkar	Drakkar comparison	Div avg	Tommy comparison	Tommy
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	4.25	48/85	~4.62	—few UFC fights	2.92
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	55%	10/85elite	~48.6%	—few UFC fights	76%
Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit.	49%	63/85	~54.1%	—few UFC fights	44%
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	3.65	28/85	~4.17	—few UFC fights	0.85
KD AvgKD AvgKnockdown Average — knockdowns scored per 15 minutes. The one-shot power indicator.	0.20	57/85	~0.59	—few UFC fights	0.00
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	1.49	34/85	~1.58	—few UFC fights	11.29
TD Acc	27%	58/85	~36.6%	—few UFC fights	—
TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed.	69%	45/85	~69.3%	—	100%
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	0.00	54/85	~0.50	—few UFC fights	1.41
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	11:37	—	—	—few UFC fights	2:47 (one bout)

Statistical Verdict
Gantt’s career line combines his DWCS bout and his UFC debut. High rates over two short appearances are unstable estimates of future performance.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

⚠ R1, R2: single-fight sample for Tommy Gantt

Control Time per Round (sec)

Drakkar Klose

Thirteen first rounds, eleven seconds and nine thirds — 33 Octagon rounds in all, the deepest round-by-round sample on the Glendale prelims.
His clinch share collapses as fights go on: 41.8% of his first-round significant strikes land there, 29.3% in the second, 24.9% in the third. His distance share climbs the other way, 49.8% to 72.2%, and his accuracy falls from 59% to 50% as it does.
He is the least head-hunting striker on the card. Only 47.4% of his first-round strikes go upstairs, against 32.5% to the body and 20.1% to the legs.
Control time peaks in the second at 72 seconds a round, then drops to 47 in the third. Two knockdowns dealt and two absorbed across all 33 rounds.

Tommy Gantt

UFC sample: 1 fight, 2 rounds, the second ended by his TKO of Artur Minev at 2:51.
The UFC round chart contains the Minev bout. Gantt’s separate DWCS appearance ended at 2:47 of round one; it counts in his career rates but not in this UFC round chart.
He has never fought a third round in the UFC.

Critical Insight
Klose's round-by-round shape is the strongest argument against him. He starts chest-to-chest — 41.8% of his opening-round offence lands in the clinch, and 33% of his career significant strikes have — then drifts outward as fights go on, until 72.2% of his third-round strikes are thrown at distance at the worst accuracy of the fight, 50%. Against a man with six inches of reach on him, the drift runs the wrong way. The counter-argument is the control column: 70 and 72 seconds a round across the first two, and a Contender Series prospect who has never had to survive it.

Strike targeting

Drakkar

53%

28%

19%

Head

53%

Body

28%

Legs

19%

Tommy

68%

32%

Head

68%

Body

32%

Legs

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

DrakkarTommy

59%Distance11%

33%Clinch36%

8%Ground53%

Share of significant strikes landed at distance, in the clinch and on the ground across each fighter's UFC rounds, weighted by strike volume.

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much

Open SpaceTommy owns it

Six inches of reach into a 49% striking defence ranked 63rd of 85; Klose throws 72.2% of his third-round strikes here at 50% accuracy

Pocket / ExchangesDrakkar owns it

55% striking accuracy, 10th of 85, and 32.5% of his first-round output to the body — the range where his shortness stops mattering

ClinchDrakkar owns it

210 of 642 career UFC significant strikes land in the clinch (33%) off 70 seconds of first-round control; Gantt's clinch record is one strike

GroundEven

Klose lands 15 takedowns on 56 attempts and has never attempted a submission; Gantt has five submission wins and a back-mount TKO. One man gets there, the other finishes there

Path to Victory

Drakkar Klose

Body lock, fence, judges. Eight of his ten UFC wins went to the cards off 70 seconds of first-round control — but he has to get inside 76 inches to start, and he has to do it without offering his neck.

Why they win

Thirty-three rounds of Octagon evidence

Thirteen UFC bouts since January 2017, 10-3 inside them, and wins over Edson Barboza, King Green and Joe Solecki. Gantt's Octagon career is one fight long.

He has never been submitted

Opponents have attempted five submissions on him across 33 UFC rounds and completed none of them. There is no submission loss anywhere on a 16-3-1 record.

Accuracy that ranks 10th of 85

55% striking accuracy in a division averaging 48.6%, and 33% of his career significant strikes landing in the clinch — the one range six inches of reach does not cover.

Championship-minute craft

Ten decision wins, an 11:37 average fight time, and third-round output that rises to 23.2 significant strikes. He has been to a third round nine times; Gantt has done it in only two of his wins.

The layoff pattern cuts his way

His two longest breaks — 770 days before Brandon Jenkins, 490 before Joe Solecki — both ended in knockout wins. He arrives 392 days after the Barboza decision.

The gameplan

1
Enter behind the clinch, not the shot
33% of his career significant strikes land in the clinch and 41.8% of his first-round output does. A body lock beats a level change against a man with five submission wins.
2
Head position on every entry
27% takedown accuracy means most shots fail, and each failed shot against a guillotine specialist is the whole fight. Five submission attempts survived across 33 rounds says he knows how.
3
Do not kickbox at seventy inches
His distance share drifts to 72.2% by the third and his accuracy falls to 50% there. That drift is the losing configuration against +6 inches of reach.
4
Work the body early
32.5% of his first-round strikes go to the body — the highest body share he throws in any round. Against a man with one fifteen-minute win to his name, body work is the fastest route to the third round he wants.
5
Make it long
Gantt has one decision win and eleven finishes in twelve professional wins. Every minute past the ten-minute mark is a minute his opponent has almost never had to fight.

Path to Victory

Tommy Gantt

Either end of the fight, never the middle of it. A guillotine off the first level change or a knockout inside two rounds: eleven of his twelve wins are finishes and he has exactly one decision win as a professional.

Why they win

Six inches of reach

76 inches against 70, plus two inches of height. Klose's distance share climbs to 72.2% by the third round and his accuracy falls to 50% when it does.

A 49% striking defence

63rd of 85 active lightweights in a division averaging 54.1%, against a man whose twelve wins include six knockouts.

Five submission wins against zero

Klose has never attempted a submission in 33 Octagon rounds and shoots at 27% accuracy, 58th of 85. Every failed entry is a neck offered to the guillotine that ended Adam Livingston in 2:47.

A 92% finish rate

Eleven finishes in twelve wins, including a UFC debut TKO of Artur Minev at 2:51 of the second. He does not need judges and has only asked for them once.

The Álvarez tape

Klose has already been stopped at 2:48 of a first round by a long finishing lightweight, in December 2024, and by Beneil Dariush before that. Two of his three career losses ended inside the distance.

The gameplan

1
Jab at seventy-six inches
Six inches of reach against a striking defence of 49%, ranked 63rd of 85. He does not need volume here, he needs distance.
2
Threaten the neck on every level change
Klose has shot 56 times across 33 rounds at 27% accuracy. The guillotine that ended Adam Livingston at 2:47 is aimed at exactly that pattern.
3
Refuse the fence
Klose's control peaks at 72 seconds a round in the second and a third of his strikes land in the clinch. This fight is lost with a back to the cage, not in open space.
4
Hunt the first ten minutes
Joel Álvarez needed 2:48, and Klose's own knockdown average of 0.20 ranks 57th of 85 — he does not punch back hard enough to make the exchange expensive. Gantt's knockout bucket, 22 of 100, is the model's second-largest outcome.
5
Bank the length if the finish stalls
Klose lands 19.2 significant strikes in a first round and 16.7 in a second. Out-landing that from range is achievable; out-grappling him is not.

Danger Zone

How Drakkar Klose loses

He changes levels at 27% accuracy into six inches of reach and five career submission wins, and the fight ends with his own neck in a guillotine.
The 49% striking defence meets a six-knockout puncher at range and the Álvarez night repeats — 2:48, first round, nothing to review.
He never closes the distance at all. His clinch share is already down to 24.9% by the third round; at 38, and 392 days idle, the version where he kickboxes at 70 inches is a fifteen-minute loss.

Danger Zone

How Tommy Gantt loses

He gets body-locked and fence-ridden for fifteen minutes. Klose banks 70 and 72 seconds of control across the first two rounds and eight of his ten UFC wins are decisions — Gantt has one decision win in twelve professional wins.
The finish does not come and neither does the cardio. His only fifteen-minute win came on a regional card in 2024; nothing on his record proves he can contest a third against a pressure wrestler.
The step up is real. Klose beat Edson Barboza across three rounds ten months ago; Gantt's best win is a UFC debut against Artur Minev.

The fight's central asymmetry

A long UFC sample against one UFC debut

Klose has 33 UFC rounds behind him. Gantt has two, both from the Minev fight; his career rates also include his DWCS win.

33 v 2

UFC rounds fought

The dog's structural edge, and its limit

The Guillotine Ledger

Gantt has five career submission wins and finished Adam Livingston with a guillotine at 2:47 of the first. Klose has zero submission wins in sixteen and shoots at 27% accuracy — 15 landed on 56 attempts — which means most entries fail and every failed entry offers a neck. The counterweight is on Klose's own record: opponents have attempted five submissions on Klose across 33 Octagon rounds and finished none of them.

5 of 5

submission attempts Klose has survived in the Octagon

The round-by-round correction

He Drifts Into the Wrong Range

Klose's clinch share falls from 41.8% of his significant strikes in the first round to 24.9% in the third, while his distance share climbs from 49.8% to 72.2% and his accuracy drops from 59% to 50%. Late in fights he ends up kickboxing — which is precisely the configuration six inches of opposing reach is built to punish.

72.2%

of Klose's third-round strikes are thrown at distance

A thin nine-year schedule

The Layoff Arithmetic

Thirteen UFC bouts between January 2017 and August 2025 is one appearance every 8.6 months, with two breaks longer than a year — 770 days before Brandon Jenkins and 490 before Joe Solecki. Glendale comes 392 days after Edson Barboza. The pattern is genuinely ambiguous rather than damning: both long layoffs ended in knockout wins, and they are the only two finishes of his UFC career.

392

days between the Barboza win and this booking

Where the fight is lost

Both Inside-Distance Losses Look Like This Opponent

Klose's three career losses are David Teymur on the cards, Beneil Dariush by TKO at 1:00 of the second in March 2020, and Joel Álvarez by TKO at 2:48 of the first in December 2024. Two of three ended early, and both came against finishers rather than point-scorers. Gantt has eleven finishes in twelve wins.

The Five-Round Clock

Drakkar Klose danger windowTommy Gantt danger windowNeutral / contested

R1 · 0:00–5:00Gantt's window

The analysis puts his highest equity here: a guillotine that ended Adam Livingston at 2:47 and a knockout Joel Álvarez landed on Klose at 2:48. Klose absorbs 3.65 significant strikes a minute and lands only 0.08 knockdowns per opening round.

Critical Insight
The clock runs against the undefeated man. Eleven of Gantt's twelve wins are finishes and only one has reached the judges; Klose has taken eight of his ten UFC wins to the cards and averages 11:37 a fight. Every minute past the ten-minute mark moves this fight out of Gantt's résumé and into Klose's.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things

Drakkar Klose brings 33 rounds of Octagon round-by-round data, a 10-3 UFC record and 55% striking accuracy — 10th of 85 active lightweights. Tommy Gantt's entire statistical record footprint is three significant strikes from a 2:47 Contender Series guillotine.

Gantt has six inches of reach on a man who defends 49% of strikes (63rd of 85) and five submission wins against a man who shoots at 27% and has never attempted one. Klose has also never been submitted — five attempts faced across 33 Octagon rounds, none completed.

Model: Klose 56% / Gantt 44%, conviction 4/10 — trimmed from the site model's 65-35 for Gantt's length, his 92% finish rate, and the 2:48 first-round knockout Joel Álvarez already scored on Klose.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Klose Decision — 36%Gantt KO/TKO — 22%Klose KO/TKO — 18%Gantt Submission — 14%Gantt Decision — 8%Klose Submission — 2%

Each square = 1 model percentage point. Drakkar Klose gold · Tommy Gantt orange · color opacity: 100% = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

The sample gap

Thirteen Octagon bouts and 33 rounds of round-by-round data against one 2:47 Contender Series appearance and one UFC debut. That asymmetry is why Klose's decision bucket, 36 of 100, is the largest single outcome on the page.

Six inches of reach

76 against 70, into a striking defence of 49% that ranks 63rd of 85 in a division averaging 54.1%. Gantt's knockout bucket, 22, is the second-largest outcome and nearly all of it lives in the first ten minutes.

The guillotine against a 27% shooter

Klose lands 15 takedowns on 56 attempts and has never attempted a submission of his own. Gantt's 14 submission win-shares are the model's clearest structural edge and the largest submission bucket either man carries.

Klose has never been submitted

Five submission attempts faced across 33 UFC rounds, none completed, and no submission loss on a 16-3-1 record. That is the number holding Gantt's submission bucket at 14 rather than 25.

Age, mileage and 392 idle days

38 against 33, on a career that has averaged one Octagon appearance every 8.6 months with two breaks longer than a year. Both of those breaks ended in knockout wins, which is why this reads as a caveat rather than a lean.

Fight Scripts

of simulations

The Fence Ride

Klose gets inside the reach, body-locks and rides. Seventy seconds of control in the first, seventy-two in the second, and a card reading 29-28 or 30-27. It is the shape of eight of his ten UFC wins and the single largest outcome on this page.

Scripted outcomes for Drakkar Klose vs Tommy Gantt — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Drakkar Klose win probability

18%

36%

KO/TKODECSUB

Eighteen points, and neither of his two UFC knockouts came from his hands — Joe Solecki in 1:41 and Brandon Jenkins in 0:33 of the second, both from wrestling power. His knockdown average of 0.20 ranks 57th of 85.
The largest bucket on the page. Eight of his ten UFC wins went to the judges, he averages 11:37 a fight, and his third-round output rises to 23.2 significant strikes.
Two points. He has zero submission attempts across 33 Octagon rounds and zero submission wins in sixteen — these are scramble outcomes, not a hunted path.

Tommy Gantt win probability

22%

14%

KO/TKODECSUB

Twenty-two points and the second-largest outcome on the page. Six knockouts in twelve wins against a striking defence of 49%, 63rd of 85 — and Joel Álvarez already did it in 2:48 of a first round.
Eight points, his smallest. One decision win in twelve professional wins, on a regional card in 2024.
Fourteen points — the highest submission bucket on the page. Five career submission wins and a Contender Series guillotine against a man who shoots at 27% accuracy. Held below twenty because Klose has faced five submission attempts in the Octagon and survived all five.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round

Tommy

Drakkar

29-28 Klose

Gantt takes the opener on length, Klose banks the last two on control

The most likely card in a fight that reaches them

30-27 Klose

The fence-ride shutout — the Rafa Garcia and Joaquim Silva template

Common when the first takedown lands early

29-28 Gantt

Two rounds kept at 76 inches, then surviving a late grind

His only realistic path to the cards, and he has one decision win in twelve

Model and price

Drakkar Klose

Quote age unknown

Model win probability: 56%
Fair odds: -127

Reference quote: +383 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 1.79

Estimated EV: +170.5%
Edge vs no-vig market: +36.1 pp

Tommy Gantt

Quote age unknown

Model win probability: 44%
Fair odds: +127

Reference quote: -500 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 2.27

Estimated EV: -47.2%
Edge vs no-vig market: -36.1 pp

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash marks a price without a same-book pair to compare.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Quotes listed with a date but no time are treated as undated.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Drakkar Klose

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 1.79 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Tommy Gantt

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 2.28 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

Gantt by submission is the structural dog prop the analysis flags, and the simulation carries it at 14 of his 44 win-shares — the largest submission bucket on the page. Klose has shot 56 times across 33 Octagon rounds at 27% accuracy and has never attempted a submission himself; Gantt has five career submission wins and a Contender Series guillotine. The counterweight, and the reason the bucket is not larger, is that Klose has faced five submission attempts in the Octagon and none of them finished. Klose by decision at 36 of 100 is the chalk.

Conviction

4/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

A one-point composite gap and a thirteen-fight sample advantage, against six inches of reach and a 92% finish rate. Four out of ten is the honest number for a fight in which Gantt’s career-rate sample contains just two short appearances. Lean: Drakkar Klose.

What backs the lean

Thirteen Octagon bouts and 33 rounds of round-by-round data against one UFC fight.
55% striking accuracy, 10th of 85 lightweights, and 33% of his career strikes landing in a clinch six inches of reach cannot reach.
Five submission attempts faced in the Octagon, none completed, and no submission loss on a 16-3-1 record.
Eight of his ten UFC wins are decisions; Gantt has one decision win in twelve professional wins.

What limits it

Six inches of reach into a striking defence ranked 63rd of 85, and two of his three career losses ended inside the distance.
Joel Álvarez, a long finishing lightweight, stopped him at 2:48 of a first round in December 2024.
Gantt has five submission wins against a man who has shot 56 times at 27% accuracy and never attempted a submission himself.
38 years old, 392 days since his last fight, on a career averaging one appearance every 8.6 months.

Final Assessment

This is a fight between a proven man and an unproven one. Drakkar Klose has thirteen Octagon bouts, 33 UFC rounds, and a profile that reads exactly like what it is: 55% striking accuracy (10th of 85), 49% striking defence (63rd), 1.49 takedowns per fifteen minutes at 27% accuracy, and eleven minutes and thirty-seven seconds of average fight time. Tommy Gantt has one UFC fight, and 10:38 of cage time counting his Contender Series bout.

What Gantt has instead is shape. Six inches of reach against a man whose distance share climbs to 72.2% by the third round and whose accuracy falls to 50% when it does. Five submission wins against a man who has shot 56 times in the Octagon and never once attempted a submission of his own. And a December 2024 tape in which Joel Álvarez, a long finishing lightweight, ended Klose at 2:48 of a first round. the editorial assessment trimmed the site model from 65-35 to 56-44 on exactly those three points, and the trim is right.

The honest read: Klose should win by closing the distance, body-locking and banking rounds. Thirty-six of a hundred simulations end there, the largest single outcome on the page. But he has to survive the first ten minutes to get to it — at 38, 392 days idle, against a man whose twelve wins contain eleven finishes and whose takedown defence has never been tested on record. Take the veteran narrowly, and understand that in 44 of 100 replays this fight is over before the third round starts.

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