JJ Aldrich vs Regina Tarin: analysis & prediction

PRELIM · WOMEN'S FLYWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Silva vs. Delgado
JJ Aldrich — Women's Flyweight fighter

JJ Aldrich

15W7L
Volume Boxer
VS
Regina Tarin — Women's Flyweight fighter

Regina Tarin

“Kill Bill”
8W0L
Southpaw Finisher

Zero knockdowns in forty-five rounds against six finishes in eight fights

Women's FlyweightDesert Diamond Arena, Glendale, ArizonaSeptember 12, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Aldrich's decision experience meets Tarin's six finishes in eight professional wins. Aldrich needs to make each round a repeatable scoring contest; Tarin needs to create decisive exchanges or submission opportunities. Tarin's regional finishing record does not yet establish how consistently she can do that at UFC level.

Paths that change the fight

  • JJ AldrichFifteen minutes at range. Her output rises to 23.1 significant strikes by the third round with 84.3% of them landing at distance — if the fight is still standing and still long at the ten-minute mark, she is winning it on the cards.
  • Regina TarinOne clean left, or one scramble. Four knockouts and two submissions in eight fights against a woman with zero submission wins in fifteen — the prospect does not need fifteen minutes, and her record says she rarely uses them.
What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 4/10
  • Tarin has finished six of eight opponents; Aldrich has finished three of fifteen and has never scored an Octagon knockdown.
  • Two career submission wins against zero, and Aldrich has already been submitted once, by Erin Blanchfield.

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

JJ Aldrich

Freshness unverified
Model win probability
56%
Fair decimal odds
1.79
Reference quote+192 (BetOnline)

Quote verified:

Regina Tarin

Freshness unverified
Model win probability
44%
Fair decimal odds
2.27
Reference quote-230 (BetOnline)

Quote verified:

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Sources and data limitations

Career-rate review: September 10, 2026. JJ Aldrich: Published career rates include the April 2026 Horth bout. Earlier UFCStats snapshot predates it. Regina Tarin: One UFC bout: the February 2026 decision over Kareckaite. 114/239 significant strikes gives 47.7% accuracy; rounded to 48%. Historical round coverage may be incomplete. Composite scores and forecasts remain editorial estimates; updating descriptive rates does not recalibrate the prediction.

Model methodology
Read the evidenceInspect prices and assumptions
01

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Aldrich’s updated career line is 3.92 significant strikes landed and 4.34 absorbed per minute, with 62% striking defense. Her April 2026 Horth bout is included. Tarin has one available three-round UFC sample, so the difference in experience matters when reading averages and estimates.

JJ Aldrich
Attribute
Regina Tarin
33
Age
21
5'5"
Height
+2" Tarin5'7"
67"+1" Aldrich
Reach
66"
N/A
Leg Reach
N/A
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Elevation Fight Team, Denver
Team
Bonebreakers MMA, Mexico
Dec 9, 2016
Octagon Debut
Feb 28, 2026
Volume boxing, decision bank
Fighting Style
Southpaw power, dual finisher

Two inches of height to the 21-year-old, one inch of reach back to the 33-year-old, and a twelve-year age gap that is the only measurement on this table doing real work. Aldrich made her Octagon debut in December 2016, seven weeks after Tarin's twelfth birthday. Neither woman has a published leg reach. The number that does not appear on the table is the stance line's consequence: orthodox against southpaw puts both rear hands on the same side of the centre line, and Tarin's rear hand is the one that has knocked out four of her eight opponents.

Venue Factor
Three rounds is the veteran's format here, but only just. Aldrich's output rises every round — 14.4 significant strikes in the first, 21.3 in the second, 23.1 in the third — and 84.3% of that third-round work lands at distance, the shape of a fighter who wins the last five minutes by being further away and busier. Tarin's documented finishes arrive at 2:03 of the first, in the second, and in the fourth. Fifteen minutes hands Aldrich the two rounds she is best in; it also hands Tarin ten minutes of the only rounds she has ever needed.
02

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

JJ Aldrich fighting Gillian Robertson in the Octagon

JJ Aldrich

Pro Record
15-7-0
UFC Record
11-6 across seventeen bouts since December 2016
Streak
Two straight — unanimous decisions over Jamey-Lyn Horth (Apr 2026) and Andrea Lee (Mar 2025)
Finish Rate
20% — three knockouts in fifteen wins, zero submissions
Avg Fight Time
13:47
Chin · Durable — never knocked down in 45 recorded roundsSOS · Ranked-adjacentVolume boxer, decision bank

A decade in the Octagon built almost entirely on the judges. Sixteen of her seventeen UFC bouts sit in the statistical record and thirteen of them reached the full fifteen minutes; nine of her ten statistical record wins are decisions, and the tenth — a second-round stoppage of Liang Na in August 2023 — arrived without a single scored knockdown. That is the pattern the numbers keep confirming: 3.92 significant strikes a minute at 46% accuracy, 62% striking defence, a damage ratio of 0.92, and a knockdown average of exactly 0.00 across forty-five recorded rounds. She has been finished twice in ten years, by a Maycee Barber TKO in 2019 and an Erin Blanchfield submission in 2022, and both are worth remembering tonight because they are the only two ways this fight ends early.

Regina Tarin in a striking exchange

Regina Tarin

Pro Record
8-0-0
UFC Record
1-0 — unanimous decision over Ernesta Kareckaite (Feb 28, 2026)
Streak
Undefeated — eight straight as a professional
Finish Rate
75% — six of eight wins, four by knockout and two by submission
Avg Fight Time
Not published — one Octagon bout
Chin · No knockdown ledger — 8-0 and never dropped on recordSOS · Regional prospectNot in DB — southpaw power finisher (analysis dossier)

Eight fights, eight wins, six of them finished, and not one line of her in the UFC's statistical statistical record. What the dossier records is a 21-year-old southpaw out of Bonebreakers MMA in Mexico with four knockouts — Gisela Luna in the first, Luisa Cifuentes by punches in the fourth, Kaytlin Neil in the second, Yurivia Jimenez by right hook at 2:03 of the first — and two submissions, which is two more than her opponent has managed in fifteen career wins. Her Octagon debut in February 2026 answered the one question the regional tape could not: she took Ernesta Kareckaite the full fifteen minutes and banked all three rounds. Everything else about her at this level is projection, because there is nothing to measure it against.

JJ Aldrich
0 dealt · 0 absorbed
Knockdown Exchange
KD dealt vs absorbed
Regina Tarin
0 dealt · 0 absorbed

JJ Aldrichsignature weapons

Accumulated VolumeLiang Na, R2, August 2023 — her only UFC stoppage, and it came without a single scored knockdown
×1
The Rising RoundOutput climbs 14.4 → 21.3 → 23.1 significant strikes across three rounds; ten of her eleven UFC wins are decisions
×10

Regina Tarinsignature weapons

Southpaw Right HookYurivia Jimenez, 2:03 of the first, TNX November 2025 — the cleanest knockout on her tape
×1
Power PunchesFour of eight career wins by KO/TKO — Luna R1, Neil R2, Cifuentes R4, Jimenez R1
×4
SubmissionsTwo career submission wins against an opponent with zero in fifteen; rounds and opponents unpublished
×2

JJ Aldrich

W
Jamey-Lyn Horth
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: prospect

RR3
UFC Fight Night — Apr 18, 2026
W
Andrea Lee
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: veteran

RR3
UFC FN: Kape vs. Almabayev
L
Veronica Hardy
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: veteran

RR3
UFC FN: Lewis vs. Nascimento
W
Montana De La Rosa
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: veteran

RR3
UFC FN: Dawson vs. Green
W
Liang Na
KO/TKO

Opponent context: prospect

RR2 (4:49)
UFC FN: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie
Pattern

Four of her last five went to the cards and she won three of them. The Liang Na stoppage is the exception that proves the rule — a second-round TKO built out of accumulated volume, with no knockdown scored on the way to it. The Veronica Hardy loss is the template for how she loses now: not stopped, just out-pointed for fifteen minutes by someone composed enough to beat her to the punch. She has not been finished since June 2022.

Regina Tarin

W
Ernesta Kareckaite
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: prospect

RR3
UFC Fight Night — Feb 28, 2026
W
Yurivia Jimenez
KO/TKO — Right hook

Opponent context: prospect

RR1 (2:03)
TNX — Nov 2025
W
Kaytlin Neil
KO/TKO

Opponent context: prospect

RR2
Combate — Jun 2025
W
Luisa Cifuentes
KO/TKO — Punches

Opponent context: prospect

RR4
BSC 25 — Sep 2024
W
Gisela Luna
KO/TKO

Opponent context: prospect

RR1
Combate — Jul 2024
Pattern

Four finishes and a debut decision. The finishes are spread across rounds one, two and four, which says the power is not purely a first-minute phenomenon, and the Jimenez right hook at 2:03 is the single cleanest piece of evidence on her tape. Then the Octagon debut: fifteen minutes against Ernesta Kareckaite, all three rounds banked. The step-up question is untouched — Aldrich is the first opponent she will meet who has already shared a cage with ranked women's flyweights.

JJ Aldrich

Win Methods
Wins by Round

Regina Tarin

Win Methods
Wins by Round
Critical Insight
The two donuts are near-perfect inverses and they are the fight. Aldrich's career splits 80% decisions to 20% knockouts with zero submissions in fifteen wins; Tarin's splits 50% knockouts, 25% submissions, 25% decisions. The round bars underneath are scoped differently and deliberately: Aldrich's cover her eleven UFC wins — ten decisions and the second-round TKO of Liang Na — while Tarin's cover only the five wins whose round the analysis dossier documents, so her two submissions and one further decision are absent rather than guessed at.

Common Opponents

OpponentJJRegina
Maycee Barber (style proxy)L· TKO R2 (2019)—(blueprint for Tarin)
The one time a younger, physically stronger power fighter got Aldrich out of there — and the closest thing on tape to the version of tonight where the prospect wins
Erin Blanchfield (style proxy)L· Submission R2, 2:38 (2022)—(blueprint for Tarin)
Aldrich's only submission loss, and the only evidence either way about how she handles a grappler; Tarin holds the two-to-zero submission edge in this matchup
Ernesta Kareckaite—(never met)W· UD3 (Feb 2026)
Tarin's only Octagon opponent and her only measured fifteen minutes — the sole piece of UFC-level evidence on her side of the page
03

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and sample flags before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

SLpM 25% · StrAcc 30% · StrDef 30% · SApM 15%

0
JJ
0
Reginasmall sample

A single point, and it is measured against estimated. Aldrich's side is real: 3.92 landed per minute at 46% accuracy, 62% defence (10th of 32), 4.34 absorbed. Tarin's 54 is the editorial assessment's estimate from a 50% knockout rate, southpaw geometry and one Octagon appearance — her career rates now reflect one UFC bout.

Grappling

TD/15 25% · TDAcc 25% · TDDef 30% · Sub/15 20%

0
JJ
0
Reginasmall sample

Aldrich's grappling is defensive by construction: 0.70 takedowns per fifteen minutes (23rd of 32), 27% accuracy (22nd), 0.00 submission attempts (26th), all propped up by 68% takedown defence. Tarin's edge rests on the one number the analysis will not discount — two career submissions against zero.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

0.0
JJ
0
Reginasmall sample

The only composite the prospect wins, and by half a point. On pure technique the analysis calls this a coin flip; the 56-44 lean is bought entirely in the row below.

Cardio

Fight time · pace · R3/R1 output · champ rounds

0
JJ
0
Reginasmall sample

Aldrich averages 13:47 a fight and her third-round output is 160% of her first — 23.1 significant strikes against 14.4, across thirteen third rounds. Tarin has one fifteen-minute performance on record and won it; that is the entire deep-water sample.

Overall

(Technical + Cardio) / 2

0
JJ
0.0
Reginasmall sample

A point and a half of separation, and a 56-44 model line sitting right on top of it. Nothing about this page is comfortable in either direction.

MetricJJRegina
Avg Fight Time13:47Not published — one UFC boutsmall sample
Pace TierMid-pack — 3.92 SLpM (15th/32)Not measuredsmall sample
R3/R1 Output160% (23.1 vs 14.4 sig)Limited round samplesmall sample
Slow Start %Real — 14.4 sig at 44%, her quietest roundUnmeasured — 2 of 8 wins ended in R1small sample
Champ RoundsN/A — 3-round boutN/A — 3-round bout

Archetype Base Rate

Volume Boxer 56%44% Southpaw Power Finisher

No archetype base-rate row for this pairing · No historical archetype win-rate is applied. The 56-44 line is the editorial assessment's trim of the site model's 62-38, which it judged to be overweighting résumé gravity against a 21-year-old with a 75% finish rate, southpaw geometry and a successful Octagon debut.

JJ AldrichRegina Tarin

Women's Flyweight

· 32 fighters
StatJJJJ rankDiv avgRegina rankRegina
SLpM3.92—~4.66—7.60
Str Acc46%—~46.3%—48%
Str Def62%—~55.5%—58%
SApM4.34—~4.08—7.00
KD Avg0.00—~0.32—0.00
Damage Ratio0.90—~1.14—1.09
TD/150.70—~1.40—1.00
TD AccNot verified—~36.2%—33%
TD Def68%—~65.9%—50%
Sub/150.00—~0.46—Not in statistical record
Avg Fight Time13:47———Not in statistical record
Statistical Verdict
Aldrich’s rates include the Horth fight. Her earlier division rankings have been removed. Tarin’s available UFC rounds do not establish a stable long-term baseline.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

⚠ R1, R2, R3: single-fight sample for Regina Tarin

Control Time per Round (sec)

JJ Aldrich

  • Her output climbs every round and her accuracy peaks in the middle: 14.4 significant strikes at 44% in the first, 21.3 at 49% in the second, 23.1 at 47% in the third.
  • The fight gets further away as it goes. Distance share rises from 77.5% to 84.3% while clinch share falls from 16.0% to 9.0% — she stops being held and starts being busy.
  • Zero knockdowns scored and zero absorbed across all forty-five recorded rounds. Both of her career stoppage results, the Liang Na TKO and the Barber TKO, happened without one.
  • Head-hunting is constant at roughly 80% of strikes in every round, but the leg kicks vanish after the first: 9.5% of her opening-round strikes, 4.0% by the third.

Regina Tarin

  • Available UFC sample: 1 fight, 3 observed rounds. This is the available sample, not a guarantee of complete career coverage. Shortened rounds are included; no values are assigned to rounds without observations.
Critical Insight
Aldrich's round-by-round shape is the strongest argument for the favourite, and it is not the one usually made for her. She is not a fast starter who survives — she is a slow starter who accelerates: 60% more significant strikes in the third round than the first, at longer range, with her control time falling from 60 seconds to 45 because she no longer needs it. Tarin's limited sample includes a three-round UFC bout. Her regional first-round finishes suggest an early threat, but one UFC appearance cannot establish a reliable late-round trend.

Strike targeting (available rounds)

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

JJRegina
79%Distance80%
12%Clinch20%
9%Ground0%

Approximate share of significant strikes by range in available rounds, weighted by strike volume. Incomplete splits are excluded. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.

04

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much
Open SpaceJJ owns it

84.3% of her third-round offence lands at distance behind a one-inch reach edge and 62% striking defence, 10th of 32

Pocket / ExchangesRegina owns it

Four knockouts in eight fights and a southpaw rear hand against a 0.92 damage ratio and 22nd-of-32 strikes absorbed

ClinchRegina owns it

Two inches of height and twelve years of youth; Aldrich's clinch share falls from 16.0% of her offence in the first round to 9.0% in the third

GroundRegina owns it

Two career submissions against zero, and 0.00 submission attempts per fifteen minutes from Aldrich — offset by her 68% takedown defence

Path to Victory

JJ Aldrich

Fifteen minutes at range. Her output rises to 23.1 significant strikes by the third round with 84.3% of them landing at distance — if the fight is still standing and still long at the ten-minute mark, she is winning it on the cards.

Why they win
01
The rising round

14.4 significant strikes in the first, 21.3 in the second, 23.1 in the third. She wins the minutes that decide cards, and she has thirteen third rounds of data proving it.

02
62% striking defence, 10th of 32

Her one genuinely good divisional column, and it is the one that matters against a puncher. She has been knocked down zero times in forty-five recorded rounds.

03
Seventeen Octagon bouts against one

She has already fought Erin Blanchfield, Maycee Barber, Andrea Lee, Gillian Robertson and Montana De La Rosa. Tarin's entire Octagon résumé is Ernesta Kareckaite.

04
13:47 average fight time

She is built for the full distance and thirteen of her sixteen statistical record bouts reached it. Tarin has been fifteen minutes exactly once.

05
Reach and the orthodox jab

67 inches against 66, and the jab is the tool she uses most. Open-stance geometry cuts both ways: her lead hand is on the outside too.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Jab and leave

    3.92 strikes a minute is not volume that overwhelms anyone; 47% accuracy behind a longer reach is volume that scores. Touch, then reset.

  2. 2
    Kick the lead leg early

    9.5% of her first-round strikes are leg kicks and only 4.0% by the third. Against a southpaw whose lead leg sits exposed, that ratio should run the other way.

  3. 3
    Deny the left-hand pocket

    The Jimenez knockout came at 2:03 of a first round. Open stance means the rear hands collide; circling away from the power side is the entire opening five minutes.

  4. 4
    Make it long

    84.3% of her third-round strikes land at distance and that is where she is at her best. Every clinch is an invitation for a 21-year-old to get physical.

  5. 5
    Bank rounds two and three

    Her output rises 60% from the first round to the third. She does not need to win the first — she needs to get through it.

Path to Victory

Regina Tarin

One clean left, or one scramble. Four knockouts and two submissions in eight fights against a woman with zero submission wins in fifteen — the prospect does not need fifteen minutes, and her record says she rarely uses them.

Why they win
01
Six finishes in eight fights

Four knockouts, two submissions, a 75% finish rate — against an opponent whose entire career produces three knockouts in fifteen wins and no submissions at all.

02
Twelve years younger

21 against 33, with forty-five fewer recorded Octagon rounds of accumulated mileage and damage.

03
Southpaw against orthodox

Open-stance geometry puts her power left outside Aldrich's lead hand. Aldrich's career has been built on out-boxing orthodox opponents at a measured pace.

04
The submission asymmetry

Two career submission wins against zero. Aldrich's only submission experience in the Octagon is the losing side of one — Erin Blanchfield, second round, 2:38.

05
Two inches of height

5'7" against 5'5", which turns Aldrich's one-inch reach edge into a wash and gives the southpaw a downhill angle on the left.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Chaos in the first ten minutes

    The analysis is explicit: minutes 0:00 to 10:00 are where the knockout and submission equity lives, before Aldrich's pace becomes a tax.

  2. 2
    Southpaw two, off the right hook

    The Jimenez finish is the tape. Her rear hand sits on the outside all night against an orthodox boxer.

  3. 3
    Force the scramble

    Aldrich has zero submission wins and 0.00 submission attempts per fifteen minutes, 26th of 32. Any exchange on the mat is asymmetric, and it is asymmetric in Tarin's favour.

  4. 4
    Use the two inches

    5'7" against 5'5", fighting downhill on the left and in the clinch, where Aldrich's share of offence falls to 9.0% by the third round.

  5. 5
    Do not chase the third

    If it is still standing at ten minutes she is entering the round Aldrich owns — 23.1 significant strikes, 84.3% at distance, thirteen samples deep.

Danger Zone

How JJ Aldrich loses

  • The left hand lands clean inside the first ten minutes. She has no knockdown ledger in either direction, so there is no evidence she recovers from one — only that she has never had to.

  • It hits the mat in a scramble and she meets the second submission of her Octagon career. Erin Blanchfield needed two rounds and thirty-eight seconds; Tarin has two career submissions.

  • She spends fifteen minutes on the wrong end of an exchange she cannot win — the Veronica Hardy card again, this time against someone twelve years younger.

Danger Zone

How Regina Tarin loses

  • Nothing lands early and the fight becomes exactly what Aldrich builds: a third round of 23.1 significant strikes at a range Tarin has never fought at this level.

  • The 68% takedown defence holds and the two-submission edge she owns never gets a chance to matter.

  • Her measured record is one Octagon fight. The step from Ernesta Kareckaite to a ranked-adjacent flyweight who has shared a cage with Erin Blanchfield is the largest of her career, taken on prelims with no rate data to say she is ready.

The fight's central number

Zero and Zero

Across forty-five recorded Octagon rounds, JJ Aldrich has scored no knockdowns and absorbed none. Her knockdown average is exactly 0.00, 20th of 32 active women's flyweights, and her opponents' figure against her is identical. She has never dropped anyone and has never been dropped — which means the single event most likely to end this fight has no precedent anywhere in her data.

0.00
knockdowns scored and absorbed across 45 rounds
Why she wins cards

The Rising Round

Her output climbs 14.4 → 21.3 → 23.1 significant strikes across rounds one, two and three — 160% of her opening-round volume by the third — while her distance share rises from 77.5% to 84.3% and her control time falls from 60 seconds to 45. She wins by getting busier and further away, not by getting on top.

160%
third-round output as a share of her first
The structural asymmetry

Two Submissions Against None

Regina Tarin has two career submission wins. JJ Aldrich has zero in fifteen wins, 0.00 submission attempts per fifteen minutes, and a divisional rank of 26th of 32 for it. Aldrich's only submission experience in the Octagon is the losing side of one, to Erin Blanchfield in June 2022 at 2:38 of the second round.

The honest caveat

An Empty Column

Tarin's available UFC evidence comprises one three-round appearance. Her striking composite of 54 and grappling composite of 50 are estimates the editorial assessment derived from a regional record and one Octagon appearance. The gap between these two fighters is small; the gap in what is known about them is not.

The veteran's real vulnerability

0.92 Damage Ratio

Aldrich lands 3.92 significant strikes a minute and absorbs 4.34 — a ratio of 0.92 against a divisional average of 1.14, and 22nd of 32 for strikes absorbed. She wins decisions while taking marginally more than she gives, which works against boxers and has twice failed against power.

0.92
strikes landed per strike absorbed — division avg 1.14

The Five-Round Clock

JJ Aldrich danger windowRegina Tarin danger windowNeutral / contested
R1 · 0:00–5:00Tarin's window

Two of her documented finishes ended in the first round, one at 2:03. Aldrich's first round is her quietest — 14.4 significant strikes at 44%, her lowest accuracy of the fight, with 16.0% of her offence stuck in the clinch.

Critical Insight
The clock runs one way. Every documented Tarin finish and both of Aldrich's career stoppage losses live inside the first ten minutes; the last five belong to the fighter whose output rises 60% from the opening bell. If the prospect has not hurt her by the second horn, the fight becomes a scorecard exercise that Aldrich has won ten times.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

05

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things
1

Across forty-five recorded Octagon rounds, JJ Aldrich has scored zero knockdowns and absorbed zero. Regina Tarin has finished six of her eight opponents. That is the fight in two numbers.

2

Aldrich's output climbs 14.4 → 21.3 → 23.1 across three rounds with 84.3% of the third landing at distance — she wins the last five minutes. Every documented Tarin finish arrives inside the first ten.

3

Model: Aldrich 56% / Tarin 44%, conviction 4/10 — trimmed from the site's 62-38 because the prospect has no measured rate line at all, which cuts in both directions.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Aldrich Decision — 42%Tarin KO/TKO — 24%Tarin Decision — 14%Aldrich KO/TKO — 12%Tarin Submission — 6%Aldrich Submission — 2%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. JJ Aldrich gold · Regina Tarin orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

The rising-round edge

14.4 → 21.3 → 23.1 significant strikes across three rounds, thirteen third rounds deep. In every branch where the fight goes long, Aldrich's decision bucket — 42 of 100, the largest on the page — is the outcome.

Four knockouts in eight fights

Tarin's knockout bucket is 24, the second-largest single outcome, and almost all of it sits inside the first ten minutes. Aldrich absorbs 4.34 significant strikes a minute, 22nd of 32 in the division.

The submission asymmetry

Two career submissions against zero, with a 68% takedown defence standing between them. Worth six points to Tarin and two to Aldrich, whose pair are scramble outcomes rather than a hunted path.

One measured Octagon fight

Tarin has no row in the statistical statistical record. Her composites are estimates, and the model's discount for that uncertainty accounts for most of the distance between the site's 62-38 and this page's 56-44 — in both directions.

Twelve years

33 against 21, with forty-five recorded Octagon rounds of mileage on one side and a single televised fifteen minutes on the other.

Fight Scripts

0%
of simulations

The Card

Aldrich survives a live opening five minutes, finds the jab, and her output climbs the way it always does — 21.3 in the second, 23.1 in the third, at range. No drama after the ten-minute mark and a 29-28 or 30-27 that nobody argues with. The single largest bucket on the page.

Scripted outcomes for JJ Aldrich vs Regina Tarin — how each version of this fight unfolds.

JJ Aldrich win probability
0%
12%
42%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Twelve points, and generous. She has three knockouts in fifteen career wins, one of them in the Octagon, and a knockdown average of exactly 0.00 across forty-five recorded rounds — her lone UFC stoppage of Liang Na came from accumulation, not a shot.

  • The largest bucket on the page and the whole case for the favourite. Ten of her eleven UFC wins are decisions, her average fight lasts 13:47, and her third-round output is 160% of her first.

  • Two points. She has zero submission wins in fifteen and 0.00 submission attempts per fifteen minutes, 26th of 32 in the division. These are scramble outcomes, not a path she hunts.

Regina Tarin win probability
0%
24%
14%
6%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • The second-largest bucket on the page. Four of eight career wins by knockout, a southpaw rear hand against an orthodox boxer with a 0.92 damage ratio, and two of her documented finishes inside the first round.

  • Fourteen points, and the shape of her Octagon debut — fifteen minutes against Ernesta Kareckaite with all three rounds banked. It is the outcome her regional tape argues against and her only UFC appearance argues for.

  • Six points, three times Aldrich's, built on two career submission wins against an opponent with none. Held down by Aldrich's 68% takedown defence, 15th of 32.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round
R1
Regina
R2
JJ
R3
JJ
29-28 Aldrich
Tarin takes a live first, Aldrich takes the last ten minutes
The most likely card in a fight that reaches them
30-27 Aldrich
The opening five minutes pass without incident and the volume runs unopposed
Common — thirteen of her sixteen statistical record bouts went the distance
29-28 Tarin
Two rounds of power minutes outscore a rising but unspectacular output
Fourteen of the underdog's forty-four win-shares are decisions

Model and price

JJ Aldrich

Freshness unverified
Model win probability
56%
Fair decimal odds
1.79
Reference quote+192 (BetOnline)
Estimated EV
+63.5%
Edge vs no-vig market
+23.1 pp

Quote verified:

Regina Tarin

Freshness unverified
Model win probability
44%
Fair decimal odds
2.27
Reference quote-230 (BetOnline)
Estimated EV
-36.9%
Edge vs no-vig market
-23.1 pp

Quote verified:

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · JJ Aldrich

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 1.79 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Regina Tarin

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 2.28 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Props: model vs recorded price (0)

No prop prices recorded in this analysis.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

Tarin by knockout is the prop the analysis flags and the simulation supports: 24 of her 44 win-shares, the second-largest single bucket on the page, and larger than Aldrich's knockout and submission buckets combined. If the market prices this off Aldrich's seventeen-fight Octagon résumé against a 1-0 prospect, the underdog's inside-the-distance side is where the model disagrees most sharply. Aldrich by decision, at 42 points, is the chalk grind.

Conviction
0
4/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

A lean rather than a call. The veteran's pace, 62% striking defence and rising round-by-round output are all measured and all real — but they are worth a point and a half of composite against a 21-year-old with a 75% finish rate whose entire statistical profile is an estimate. Lean: JJ Aldrich.

What backs the lean

  • Output that climbs 14.4 → 21.3 → 23.1 across three rounds, thirteen third rounds of data deep.

  • 62% striking defence, 10th of 32 active women's flyweights, and zero knockdowns absorbed in forty-five recorded rounds.

  • Seventeen Octagon appearances and a 13:47 average fight time against one televised fifteen minutes.

  • 68% takedown defence, 15th of 32, closing the prospect's submission path before it opens.

What limits it

  • Tarin has finished six of eight opponents; Aldrich has finished three of fifteen and has never scored an Octagon knockdown.

  • Two career submission wins against zero, and Aldrich has already been submitted once, by Erin Blanchfield.

  • A 0.92 damage ratio and 22nd-of-32 strikes absorbed, against a southpaw with four knockouts.

  • Tarin’s UFC rates are observed over one bout; her composite scores remain editorial estimates. There is little evidence of long-term performance, which cuts both ways and caps the conviction at four.

Final Assessment

The cleanest way to read this fight is through one number that appears nowhere in the preview coverage: across forty-five recorded Octagon rounds, JJ Aldrich has scored zero knockdowns and absorbed zero. She has been in there with Erin Blanchfield, Maycee Barber and Andrea Lee, and in ten years nobody has dropped her and she has dropped nobody. Her career is a long argument that fights are won by being busier in the third round than in the first — 23.1 significant strikes against 14.4, and ten decisions among eleven UFC wins.

Regina Tarin's career is the opposite argument made with a fraction of the evidence. Eight fights, six finishes, four of them knockouts, two submissions against an opponent who has never submitted anyone — and not one row in the statistical statistical record that would let any of it be checked. Her composites on this page are estimates. Her single measured performance is fifteen minutes against Ernesta Kareckaite in February, which she won, and which proved she can do the thing her regional tape suggested she might not need to.

The honest read: take the veteran, narrowly, and understand exactly what you are taking. Aldrich wins if the fight is long and at range, and the third round is hers on thirteen samples of evidence. She loses if the southpaw left lands inside the first ten minutes, which is where every documented Tarin finish and both of Aldrich's career stoppage losses already live. Twenty-four of the underdog's forty-four win-shares are knockouts. At 56-44 with a conviction of four, this is a fight to watch rather than a fight to bet.

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