David Martinez vs Dan Ige – UFC Fight Night: Silva vs. Delgado Fight Analytics & Prediction

MAIN CARD · BANTAMWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Silva vs. Delgado

David Martinez

14W1L

Technical Finisher

Dan Ige

19W11L

Pressure Veteran

Four Octagon rounds of evidence against fifty-five

BantamweightDesert Diamond Arena, Glendale, ArizonaSeptember 12, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Martinez's early UFC striking numbers favour him, but they cover only four recorded rounds against Ige's much larger sample. Martinez needs to preserve his clean entries and exits under sustained resistance; Ige can test that advantage by extending exchanges and making the younger fighter defend repeatedly.

Paths that change the fight

David MartinezOwn the center and make Ige reach. 4.82 strikes a minute at 69% defence against a man who lands 3.60 and blocks 56% is a scorecard that writes itself, provided the four inches of reach never turn into a fence.
Dan IgeCut the cage and make it ugly. Ige does not need to out-strike Martinez — he needs one bad round out of three, and a clinch, a takedown attempt or a late overhand to make it look worse than it was.

What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 3/10

Martinez leads every striking column: 4.82 to 3.60 landed, 69% to 56% defence, 2.90 to 3.56 absorbed.
He out-boxed Rob Font for fifteen rounds' worth of evidence — the same category of durable veteran striker Ige is.

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

David Martinez

Quote age unknown

Model win probability: 49%
Fair odds: +104

Reference quote: -300 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 2.04

Dan Ige

Quote age unknown

Model win probability: 51%
Fair odds: -104

Reference quote: +245 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 1.96

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Quotes listed with a date but no time are treated as undated.

Sources and data limitations

Career rates as of September 10, 2026. David Martinez's include DWCS and three UFC appearances, the latest a February 2026 win over Marlon Vera. Composite scores and forecasts remain editorial estimates; updated descriptive rates do not recalibrate the prediction.

Model methodology

Read the evidence Inspect prices and assumptions

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Martinez's career line is 4.82 significant strikes landed and 2.90 absorbed per minute, with 69% striking defense and 0.60 takedowns per 15 minutes. His record now includes the February 2026 decision over Marlon Vera. The matchup pairs a developing UFC résumé with Ige's longer experience.

David Martinez

Attribute

Dan Ige

287 years younger

Age

5'5"

Height

+2" Ige5'7"

67"

Reach

+4" Ige71"

—

Leg Reach

—

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

Bonebreakers, Mexico City

Team

—

Mar 29, 2025

Octagon Debut

Jan 20, 2018

High-efficiency knockout boxing

Fighting Style

Pressure volume with jiu-jitsu backup

Ige owns the frame and Martinez owns the clock. Four inches of reach and two inches of height is a real jab-and-entry advantage at 135 pounds, and it is the single physical fact that keeps the veteran favoured. Against it: seven years, a Mexico City bantamweight who has lost once as a professional, and a defensive striking number — 69%, 4th of 79 active bantamweights — that says the reach has to actually land. Leg kicks matter here: 30.6% of Martinez's first-round strikes go to the legs, the highest leg share either fighter posts in any round.

Venue Factor
Desert Diamond Arena uses a standard 30-foot Octagon, and the extra floor is quietly Martinez's ally. His entire measured profile is a man who is hard to hit — 2.90 absorbed per minute against a bantamweight average of 3.95 — and space is what makes that number true. Ige's twenty-one-fight UFC career is built on the opposite: cutting the cage down until the exchange happens whether you wanted it or not. Whoever decides where the fight is fought decides the fight.

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

David Martinez

Pro Record

14-1-0

UFC Record

3-0 across three bouts since March 2025

Streak

Ten straight — latest a unanimous decision over Marlon Vera (Feb 2026)

Finish Rate

71% of wins (10 of 14) — 10 KO/TKO

Avg Fight Time

11:33

Chin · Untested — zero knockdowns absorbed in four Octagon roundsSOS · BuildingTechnical striker / knockout finisher

Eighteen months in the Octagon and all three fights have gone exactly as a prospect's fights should. He knocked out Saimon Oliveira at 4:38 of the first in March 2025, then out-boxed Rob Font over three full rounds in September — a durable, ranked, veteran boxer who has been in with the best bantamweights of the last decade, beaten on the cards by a man in his second UFC fight — and in February 2026 he out-pointed Marlon Vera as well. The rate line the statistical record has built from those four rounds is genuinely elite: 69% striking defence, 2.90 absorbed per minute, 0.43 knockdowns, 4.82 landed. It is also four rounds. The Bonebreakers identity — center control, straight punches, heavy low kicks — is visible in every one of them, but nothing about a two-fight sample tells you what happens in the twelfth minute of the hardest night of his life.

Dan Ige

Pro Record

19-11-0

UFC Record

11-10 across twenty-one bouts since 2018

Streak

Coming off a first-round TKO loss to Melquizael Costa (Feb 21, 2026)

Finish Rate

63% of wins (12 of 19) — 7 KO/TKO, 5 submissions

Avg Fight Time

12:49

Chin · Durable — 3 knockdowns absorbed in 21 Octagon boutsSOS · DeepPressure volume veteran with submission optionality

Eight years and twenty-one fights inside the Octagon, almost all of them at featherweight and almost all of them competitive. He has beaten Edson Barboza, Andre Fili, Nate Landwehr, Mirsad Bektic and Sean Woodson; he has lost decisions to Calvin Kattar, Chan Sung Jung, Movsar Evloev, Josh Emmett, Diego Lopes, Lerone Murphy and Patricio Freire. That is a career shape with no ambiguity in it: he has been stopped only once — by Melquizael Costa in February 2026 — and he does not beat the very top. Two of those losses went five rounds — the Kattar main event and the Jung short-notice main event — and the round-by-round record shows him landing more in the fifth (21.0) than in the first (16.0). Seven knockdowns dealt against three absorbed in the Octagon is the ledger of a man who is dangerous late and hard to hurt early.

David Martinez

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Knockdown Exchange

Knockdowns dealt vs absorbed.

Dan Ige

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

David Martinezsignature weapons

Straight Boxing Combinations10 of 14 career wins by KO/TKO (~71%); Saimon Oliveira stopped at 4:38 of the first, 0.50 knockdowns per Octagon first round

×10

Low Kick Volume30.6% of his first-round strikes and 26.7% of his third-round strikes land on the legs — no finishes credited, but it is how he buys range against longer men

×0

Dan Igesignature weapons

Overhand Right7 career KO/TKO wins — Gavin Tucker in 0:22, Mike Santiago in 0:50, Sean Woodson at 1:12 of the third at UFC 314

×7

Front Choke / Guillotine5 career submission wins including Danny Henry in 1:17; 0.2 submission attempts per fifteen minutes and the only grappling offence in the fight

×5

David Martinez

Marlon Vera

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: elite

UFC FN — Feb 28, 2026

Rob Font

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: veteran

UFC FN: Lopes vs. Silva — Sep 13, 2025

Saimon Oliveira

KO — knee and punches

Opponent context: prospect

R1 (4:38)

UFC FN: Moreno vs. Erceg — Mar 29, 2025

Xavier Franklin

Decision — Unanimous (30-27 ×3)

Opponent context: ufc adjacent

DWCS S8 W8 — Oct 1, 2024

Jose Zarauz

KO — spinning wheel kick

R4 (4:17)

Combate Global — May 28, 2023

Pattern

5-0 in the last five. Wins over Vera (decision), Font (decision), Oliveira (knockout), Franklin (decision) and Zarauz (knockout). Most recent: a win over Vera, Feb 28, 2026.

Dan Ige

Melquizael Costa

TKO — spinning back kick and punches

Opponent context: veteran

R1 (4:56)

UFC Fight Night — Feb 21, 2026

Patricio Freire

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: elite

UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 — Jul 19, 2025

Sean Woodson

TKO — punches

Opponent context: prospect

R3 (1:12)

UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes — Apr 12, 2025

Lerone Murphy

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: elite

UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway — Oct 26, 2024

Diego Lopes

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: elite

UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 — Jun 29, 2024

Pattern

Loss, loss, win, loss, loss. The Costa stoppage is the new outlier — his first finish loss in a long stretch of decisions to top featherweights — then Freire, Woodson (KO win), Murphy and Lopes. The Freire tape still matters for this matchup: Pitbull out-executed him with craft and pressure over three rounds, which is broadly the shape of what Martinez does — with seven fewer years on the odometer.

David Martinez

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Dan Ige

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Critical Insight
Martinez: 10 KO/TKOs, 0 submissions and 4 decisions in 14 professional wins. Of Martinez's 10 finishes, six in round one, two in round two and two in round four or later. Ige: 7 KO/TKOs, 5 submissions and 7 decisions in 19 professional wins. Of Ige's 12 finishes, seven in round one, two in round two and three in round three. The round bars count every professional win, with decisions in the DEC column.

Opposition strength (no shared opponents)

Without a reliable shared-opponent table, compare who each fighter has been tested against using SOS tier, UFC sample size, and recent elite-tier form — not raw records alone.

Factor	David	Dan
Strength of schedule (SOS tier)	Building — Beat Marlon Vera and Rob Font on the cards and stopped Saimon Oliveira in the first — three UFC opponents, all of them real	Deep — Beat Barboza, Fili, Landwehr, Woodson and Bektic; lost to Kattar, Jung, Evloev, Emmett, Diego Lopes, Murphy, Freire and Costa
UFC sample	3-0 across three bouts since March 2025	11-10 across twenty-one bouts since 2018
Recent ranked / elite touches (last 5)	1 elite · 1 veteran tier	3 elite · 1 veteran tier
Form-window difficulty edge: Fighter B (12 vs 6 tier points in listed bouts).
Last three opponents	Marlon Vera, Rob Font, Saimon Oliveira	Melquizael Costa, Patricio Freire, Sean Woodson

Rob Font (style proxy): A durable, experienced orthodox boxer out-pointed cleanly over fifteen minutes — the closest available preview of Martinez against a veteran striker
Patricio Freire (style proxy): Elite pressure boxing beat Ige on the cards in July 2025; the template Martinez has to reproduce with far less experience
Lerone Murphy (style proxy): A high-efficiency counter striker who out-executed Ige without needing volume — the same defensive-first profile Martinez's 69% suggests

Davidfew UFC fights

0.0

Dan

Half a composite point, and a 51-49 model line that matches it. This is the flattest overall pair on the Glendale card.

Metric	David	Dan
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	11:33	12:49
Pace Tier	Above average — 4.82 SLpM (30th/79 BW)few UFC fights	Below average — 3.60 SLpM (56th/78 FW)
R3/R1 OutputR3/R1 OutputThird-round output as % of first-round output. Above 100% = builds into the fight; below = fades.	122% (30.0 vs 24.5 sig)few UFC fights	106% (17.0 vs 16.0 sig)
Octagon Rounds Logged	4 rounds across 2 bouts	55 rounds across 20 bouts
Champ RoundsChamp RoundsEvidence from rounds 4-5 — only fighters with five-round experience have data here.	None in the UFC	4 in the UFC (R4 19.0 sig at 46%, R5 21.0 at 48%)

Archetype Base Rate

Technical Striker / Finisher 49%51% Pressure Veteran

Matchup-specific read of this booking · No historical archetype win-rate is applied. The site's ensemble opened at 48-52 Ige; the analysis nudged it to 49-51 after weighing Martinez's 69% striking defence and the Rob Font decision, and stopped there because the depth of Ige's sample and his four inches of reach are the only things separating them.

David MartinezDan Ige

Bantamweight (Martinez) · Featherweight (Ige)

· 79 fighters

Rank bars use the recorded division cohort. Where no rank is shown, the comparison shows the difference from the published division average; the white marker denotes equality. Percentage differences are percentage points (pp). Higher is not always better: fewer strikes absorbed is preferable.

Stat	David	David comparison	Div avg	Dan comparison	Dan
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	4.82	—few UFC fights	BW 4.41 · FW 4.73	56/79	3.60
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	47%	—few UFC fights	BW 47.2% · FW 49.9%	52/79	45%
Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit.	69%	—few UFC fights	BW 54.2% · FW 55.0%	32/79	56%
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	2.90	—few UFC fights	BW 3.95 · FW 3.93	36/79	3.56
KD AvgKD AvgKnockdown Average — knockdowns scored per 15 minutes. The one-shot power indicator.	0.30	—few UFC fights	BW 0.54 · FW 1.46	31/79	0.45
Damage RatioDamage RatioSignificant strikes landed divided by significant strikes absorbed. Above 1 means more landed than absorbed; compare with the division average shown in this table. Strike counts do not measure damage severity.	1.66	—few UFC fights	BW 1.12 · FW 1.20 (avg SLpM ÷ avg SApM)	—	1.02
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	0.60	—few UFC fights	BW 1.50 · FW 1.89	44/79	0.93
TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed.	100%	—few UFC fights	BW 67.5% · FW 67.8%	54/79	56%
TD Acc	—	—few UFC fights	BW 32.9% · FW 40.6%	58/79	26%
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	0.00	—few UFC fights	BW 0.51 · FW 0.56	40/79	0.20
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	11:33	—	—	—	12:49

Statistical Verdict
Martinez’s career rates include DWCS and the Vera fight.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

⚠ R2, R3: single-fight sample for David Martinez

Control Time per Round (sec)

David Martinez

Two logged first rounds, 24.5 significant strikes apiece at 57% accuracy, and one knockdown between them — 0.50 per round, the highest first-round knockdown rate in the fight.
The middle round is the outlier and the sample is a single one: 10.0 strikes at 37% against Rob Font, his quietest five minutes in the Octagon.
The third round is his loudest — 30.0 significant strikes, all of them at distance, 26.7% of them to the legs. Accuracy falls to 36% because the volume climbs; the output does not fade.

Dan Ige

Remarkably flat across twenty first rounds, sixteen seconds and fifteen thirds: 16.0, 16.9, 17.0 significant strikes, accuracy 45%, 44%, 46%. He is neither a front-runner nor a closer — he is a metronome.
His knockdowns front-load: 0.25 per first round across twenty of them, 0.13 in the second, zero in fifteen logged thirds. Seven dealt against three absorbed in his Octagon career.
His ground share collapses as fights go on — 23.8% of first-round offence, 8.5% in the second — and his control time is modest throughout, peaking at 43 seconds in the third. The grappling is a disruption, not a residence.

Critical Insight
Put the two profiles side by side and the shape of the fight appears. Martinez out-lands Ige in every round he has logged — 24.5 to 16.0 in the first, 30.0 to 17.0 in the third — and Ige has never in fifty-five rounds averaged above 21.0. But Martinez's rows rest on two, one and one round respectively, and his single quiet round (10.0 strikes at 37% in the second against Font) is exactly the kind of round Ige has built a career out of stealing. Ige's flatness is his weapon: he does not need a good round, he needs Martinez to have a bad one.

Strike targeting

David

61%

12%

27%

Head

61%

Body

12%

Legs

27%

Dan

67%

21%

12%

Head

67%

Body

21%

Legs

12%

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

DavidDan

85%Distance77%

6%Clinch8%

9%Ground15%

Share of significant strikes landed at distance, in the clinch and on the ground across each fighter's UFC rounds, weighted by strike volume.

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much

Open SpaceDavid owns it

69% striking defence (4th/79) and 4.82 SLpM against 56% and 3.60 — but Ige owns four inches of reach

Pocket / ExchangesDan owns it

0.45 knockdown average, 7 Octagon knockdowns dealt against 3 absorbed, and fifty-five rounds of knowing what to do there

ClinchDan owns it

8% of Ige's career strikes land in the clinch against Martinez's 4%; the veteran's body lock is his rhythm-breaker

GroundDan owns it

5 career submissions and 0.93 takedowns per 15 min against a fighter with 0.00 takedowns and 0.00 submission attempts on record

Path to Victory

David Martinez

Own the center and make Ige reach. 4.82 strikes a minute at 69% defence against a man who lands 3.60 and blocks 56% is a scorecard that writes itself, provided the four inches of reach never turn into a fence.

Why they win

69% striking defence

Fourth of 79 active bantamweights, against Ige's 56% (32nd of 78 featherweights). He absorbs 2.90 per minute against a divisional norm of 3.95.

The Rob Font proof

Fifteen clean rounds' worth of evidence in one night against a ranked, durable, experienced orthodox boxer — the single most transferable tape on this page.

Out-lands him in every logged round

24.5 to 16.0 in the first and 30.0 to 17.0 in the third. Ige has never averaged more than 21.0 significant strikes in any round of his UFC career.

Seven years and one career loss

28 against 35, 14-1 as a professional against a man carrying eleven defeats and fifty-five Octagon rounds of accumulated mileage.

Knockout equity that is actually measured

10 of 14 career wins by KO/TKO and 0.50 knockdowns per Octagon first round — the highest first-round knockdown rate in the bout.

The gameplan

1
Take the center immediately
The 30-foot Octagon is the ally. His entire defensive profile is a function of space, and Ige's entire offensive profile is a function of removing it.
2
Jab the reach gap closed on his own timing
Four inches is only an advantage while the exchange happens at Ige's chosen distance. Enter behind the jab, land, and leave before the return.
3
Keep the low kicks coming
30.6% of his first-round strikes go to the legs. Against a 35-year-old who needs to press forward for fifteen minutes, that is the cheapest tax on the card.
4
Refuse the pocket war
Ige's 0.45 knockdown average and seven Octagon knockdowns are all earned in exchanges. There is no version of a brawl that favours the three-fight man.
5
Bank the third
His one logged third round is his best — 30.0 significant strikes. If the cards are close, the round he has proven he can win is the one that decides it.

Path to Victory

Dan Ige

Cut the cage and make it ugly. Ige does not need to out-strike Martinez — he needs one bad round out of three, and a clinch, a takedown attempt or a late overhand to make it look worse than it was.

Why they win

Four inches of reach

71" against 67", plus two inches of height. Every entry Martinez makes has to cross distance that Ige owns by default.

Fifty-five rounds against four

Twenty-one UFC bouts including two five-round main events, against three bouts and four logged rounds. Nothing about a close, ugly, twelfth minute will be new to him.

Three ways to win

7 knockouts and 5 submissions in 19 career wins, against Martinez's 10 knockouts and zero submissions. When Plan A stalls, only one man has a Plan B.

Almost impossible to finish

Three knockdowns absorbed in twenty-one Octagon fights, and two of his last three losses went the full distance to a top-ten featherweight.

Power that never switches off

0.45 knockdowns per fifteen minutes, marginally above Martinez's 0.43, and a third-round TKO of Sean Woodson at UFC 314 as proof the late finish is live.

The gameplan

1
Cut the cage, do not chase it
Pressure without lunging. Martinez's counters live in the space a lunging entry creates, and his 69% defence needs room to be true.
2
Use the jab as a fence
71 inches against 67. The jab does not have to hurt him — it has to make him reset, and every reset is five seconds Martinez is not throwing.
3
Spice it with grappling
0.93 takedowns per fifteen minutes at 26% accuracy will not win the fight, but Martinez has no offensive grappling ledger at all and one scramble can swing a round.
4
Attack the body
24.4% of his second-round output goes to the body across sixteen logged rounds. Against a man whose deep-water sample is four rounds, that is the highest-leverage investment available.
5
Hunt the third
He stopped Sean Woodson at 1:12 of the third at UFC 314 and dealt seven Octagon knockdowns. If the cards are level after ten minutes, his best five minutes are still in front of him.

Danger Zone

How David Martinez loses

He gets walked to the fence, and the 69% striking defence that was built in open space stops being a real number.
One flat round like the 10-strike second against Font, repeated twice, and a fight he was technically winning is 29-28 the other way.
Ige gets a body-lock or a scramble and finds one of the five submissions Martinez has no answer for — the prospect has 0.00 submission attempts and no logged defensive grappling to speak of.

Danger Zone

How Dan Ige loses

He gets out-boxed for fifteen minutes the way Rob Font was — same category of fighter, same problem, less time to solve it at 35.
He presses forward into the counter and the 0.50-per-first-round knockdown number becomes the story before the second bell.
The reach advantage never converts because his 45% accuracy and 3.60 output cannot punish a man who blocks 69% and circles.

The fight's central axis

Four Rounds Against Fifty-Five

David Martinez has four logged rounds in the statistical record. Dan Ige has fifty-five, across twenty bouts and two five-round main events. Every number that favours Martinez — 69% striking defence, 100% takedown defence, a 1.64 damage ratio — was measured in eighteen minutes of Octagon time. Every number that favours Ige is the depth of the record itself.

4 v 55

Octagon rounds of round-by-round data

Why the veteran does not fade

The Metronome

Ige's output across his career reads 16.0, 16.9, 17.0 significant strikes in rounds one, two and three, at 45%, 44% and 46% accuracy. In two championship rounds it rose to 21.0. He is the flattest fighter on this card and it is a feature — he never has a great round and he almost never has a terrible one.

16.0 · 16.9 · 17.0

Ige significant strikes by round, 51 logged rounds

Two pieces of evidence that nearly cancel

The Font Proof Against the Pitbull Tape

Martinez out-boxed Rob Font over three rounds — a durable ranked veteran striker, which is exactly the category Ige belongs to. Ige lost a decision to Patricio Freire, who beat him with craft and pressure, which is exactly the shape of what Martinez does. One tape says the prospect is ready. The other says the veteran can still be out-executed. Both are true, and they land on 49-51.

The honest caveat

The 100% Takedown Defence Trap

Martinez ranks 1st of 79 bantamweights in takedown defence because nobody has taken him down in two Octagon fights. It is the most fragile number on the page. What protects it here is that Ige lands 26% of his takedowns and attempts only 0.93 per fifteen minutes — he is unlikely to be the man who exposes it, but he is capable of stealing a round trying.

Where the variance lives

Nobody Owns the Power

Martinez 0.43 knockdowns per fifteen minutes, Ige 0.45. Martinez 0.50 per Octagon first round; Ige seven knockdowns dealt against three absorbed. Both men can end it, and only Ige has been stopped in the Octagon — by Melquizael Costa in February 2026. The finish is live in both directions and belongs to neither.

The Five-Round Clock

David Martinez danger windowDan Ige danger windowNeutral / contested

R1 · 0:00–5:00Martinez's loudest round

24.5 significant strikes at 57% accuracy and 0.50 knockdowns across two logged first rounds — the best five minutes on his record, against the five minutes where Ige's own knockdown rate (0.25) peaks.

Critical Insight
There is no inverted clock here, which is unusual. Martinez's danger is highest in the first and again in the third; Ige's is a flat line that never drops. The round that actually decides this is the second — the only round where Martinez has a visibly bad performance on tape and the round Ige has logged sixteen times without ever being bad in it.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things

David Martinez leads every striking column — 4.82 landed to 3.60, 69% defence to 56%, 2.90 absorbed to 3.56 — and every one of those numbers comes from four logged Octagon rounds. Dan Ige has fifty-five.

Ige's career output reads 16.0, 16.9, 17.0 significant strikes by round at 45%, 44%, 46% accuracy. He never has a great round and almost never has a bad one, which is exactly the profile that survives a close fight.

Model: Ige 51% / Martinez 49%, conviction 3/10 — the closest line on the Glendale card, and the analysis's own nudge up from the site model's 48-52 on the strength of Martinez's defence and the Rob Font decision.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Ige Decision — 30%Ige KO/TKO — 16%Ige Submission — 5%Martinez Decision — 25%Martinez KO/TKO — 22%Martinez Submission — 2%

Each square = 1 model percentage point. David Martinez gold · Dan Ige orange · color opacity: 100% = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Sample depth against measured quality

Martinez leads every striking column and Ige leads the only column that cannot be faked — fifty-five Octagon rounds against four. Ige's decision bucket (30 of 100) is the largest single outcome precisely because a close, ugly fifteen minutes is his native environment.

Four inches of reach

71" against 67", plus two inches of height. It is the one physical advantage in the bout and it is the difference between Martinez's 69% defence being a wall and being a statistic.

The Font transfer

Out-pointing Rob Font over three rounds is the most relevant thing either man has done recently, and it is why Martinez's decision bucket (25) sits within five points of Ige's. Same category of opponent, same fifteen-minute problem.

Optionality

Ige wins three ways — 7 knockouts, 5 submissions, 7 decisions. Martinez wins one way. Five of Ige's 51 win-shares are submissions against a man with no logged grappling defence beyond a 100% takedown-defence rate built on very few attempts.

Power parity

0.43 knockdowns against 0.45, and only Ige has been stopped in the Octagon — once, by Melquizael Costa. Martinez's KO bucket (22) is larger than Ige's (16) because his knockdown rate concentrates in the first round, not because he hits harder.

Fight Scripts

of simulations

The Grind

Ige cuts the cage, jabs from 71 inches, mixes in a takedown attempt he does not need to complete, and wins two rounds nobody enjoys. The largest single bucket on the page, and the shape of half his UFC career.

Scripted outcomes for David Martinez vs Dan Ige — how each version of this fight unfolds.

David Martinez win probability

22%

25%

KO/TKODECSUB

10 of 14 career wins by KO/TKO and 0.50 knockdowns per Octagon first round — the highest first-round rate in the bout. Against a man who has absorbed three knockdowns in twenty-one Octagon fights, it is a real path rather than a certain one.
His largest bucket and the Rob Font template: out-land a durable veteran three to two for fifteen minutes and take the cards. It sits five points behind Ige's decision bucket almost entirely on sample depth.
Two points. He has 0.00 submission attempts per fifteen minutes and no submission wins on record — these are scramble outcomes, not a hunted path.

Dan Ige win probability

16%

30%

KO/TKODECSUB

7 career knockouts and a third-round TKO of Sean Woodson at UFC 314 keep the late finish live, but Martinez blocks 69% and absorbs 2.90 per minute — the accumulation route is slow going.
The largest bucket on the page. Five of his eleven Octagon wins went to the cards and two of his three most recent losses did too; a close fifteen minutes is the environment he has spent eight years in.
Five points — the single most under-priced line in the fight. Five career submissions against an opponent with no offensive grappling ledger and a 100% takedown-defence rate built on a handful of attempts.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round

David

Dan

29-28 Ige

Martinez takes the first, Ige grinds the last ten minutes

The most likely card in a fight that reaches them

29-28 Martinez

Clean boxing in two rounds, one round lost to the fence

The near-mirror, and barely less likely

30-27 Martinez

The Font sequel — center control for fifteen minutes

His cleanest path, and the analysis's live upset case

Model and price

David Martinez

Quote age unknown

Model win probability: 49%
Fair odds: +104

Reference quote: -300 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 2.04

Estimated EV: -34.7%
Edge vs no-vig market: -23.1 pp

Dan Ige

Quote age unknown

Model win probability: 51%
Fair odds: -104

Reference quote: +245 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 1.96

Estimated EV: +76.0%
Edge vs no-vig market: +23.1 pp

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash marks a price without a same-book pair to compare.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Quotes listed with a date but no time are treated as undated.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · David Martinez

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 2.05 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Dan Ige

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 1.97 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

Martinez by KO/TKO is the play the analysis flags and the simulation supports: 22 of his 49 win-shares, concentrated in the first two rounds, off the highest first-round knockdown rate in the bout (0.50). If the market prices this as a veteran's fight on name recognition and fifty-five rounds of tape, the prospect's inside-the-distance side is where the model disagrees most. The chalk counterpart is Ige by decision at 30 of 100 — the largest single bucket on the page.

Conviction

3/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

A micro-lean to the veteran on reach, toolkit diversity and fifty-five Octagon rounds against four — capped almost immediately by Martinez's 69% striking defence, the Rob Font decision, seven years of youth and a 71% career finish rate. This is the closest line on the Glendale card and the model does not pretend otherwise. Lean: Dan Ige.

What backs the lean

Four inches of reach and two inches of height, the only physical edge in the bout.
Fifty-five logged Octagon rounds across twenty bouts against Martinez's four — including two five-round main events.
Three win paths (7 KO, 5 submissions, 7 decisions) against a fighter with zero submission wins and 0.00 takedowns per fifteen minutes.
Three knockdowns absorbed in twenty-one Octagon fights; two of his last three losses went the full distance to top-ten opposition.

What limits it

Martinez leads every striking column: 4.82 to 3.60 landed, 69% to 56% defence, 2.90 to 3.56 absorbed.
He out-boxed Rob Font for fifteen rounds' worth of evidence — the same category of durable veteran striker Ige is.
Seven years younger with one career loss, against a 35-year-old carrying eleven and coming off a first-round TKO defeat.
0.50 knockdowns per Octagon first round and 10 of 14 career wins by KO/TKO — the finish is live before the sample argument ever matters.

Final Assessment

This is the flattest matchup on the Glendale card and the honest reason is that the two fighters are measured on different instruments. David Martinez's profile is beautiful and eighteen minutes long: 69% striking defence, fourth of 79 bantamweights; 100% takedown defence, first; a damage ratio of 1.64; 4.82 significant strikes a minute. Dan Ige's profile is ordinary and eight years long: 3.60 landed, 3.56 absorbed, 56% defence, and fifty-five rounds of never quite being bad at anything.

The tape argues with itself in the same way. Martinez out-boxed Rob Font over three rounds, which is the strongest possible signal for exactly this style of opponent. Ige lost a decision to Patricio Freire, which is the strongest possible signal that a technical boxer can still out-execute him. Both happened. They cancel, and what is left is four inches of reach, seven years of age, and the question of whether a two-fight sample survives contact with a man who has been in twenty-one of these.

The read: take Ige on a coin flip and understand that the coin is genuinely fair. Thirty of the hundred simulations are an Ige decision, twenty-five are a Martinez decision, and twenty-two are the Bonebreakers right hand landing before any of it matters. If you want the disagreement with the market, it is Martinez inside the distance — and do not be surprised if the Font sequel gets written.

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