Ignacio Bahamondes vs Muslim Salikhov: analysis & prediction

PRELIM · WELTERWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Silva vs. Delgado
Ignacio Bahamondes — Welterweight fighter

Ignacio Bahamondes

“La Jaula”
17W7L
Length Volume
VS
Muslim Salikhov — Welterweight fighter

Muslim Salikhov

“King of Kung Fu”
22W6L
Counter Striker

Two strikes a minute for every one — against a 42-year-old counter

WelterweightDesert Diamond Arena, Glendale, ArizonaSeptember 12, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Bahamondes's higher striking output supports a long-range, sustained-pressure approach against Salikhov. The risk is the entry: Salikhov can change the fight with a counter before that volume accumulates. Watch whether Bahamondes finishes combinations at a safe distance rather than remaining in the pocket.

Paths that change the fight

  • Ignacio BahamondesFifteen minutes at 75 inches. Nearly twice the output at a range Salikhov cannot cover, and a submission threat behind it if the veteran ever shoots and fails.
  • Muslim SalikhovOne counter, inside five minutes. Three of his five UFC knockouts landed in the opening round and he needs this one to be the fourth — because the arithmetic after that belongs to a man thirteen years younger.
What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 4/10
  • Salikhov's 62% striking defence is 7th of 78 active welterweights and he absorbs only 2.96 a minute.
  • Bahamondes's accuracy falls from 48% to 42% across three rounds — the profile Klein and Fiziev out-pointed.

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Ignacio Bahamondes

Quote age unknown
Model win probability
57%
Fair odds
-133
Reference quote
-525 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds
1.75

Muslim Salikhov

Quote age unknown
Model win probability
43%
Fair odds
+133
Reference quote
+400 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds
2.33
Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Quotes listed with a date but no time are treated as undated.

Sources and data limitations

Career statistics and fight results through September 2026. Statistics may include bouts outside the UFC where noted. Projections, composite scores and analyst conviction are estimates, not observed outcomes.

Model methodology
Read the evidenceInspect prices and assumptions
01

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

The widest volume gap on the Glendale prelims, and the widest age gap on the card. Ignacio Bahamondes lands 5.99 significant strikes per minute — 8th of 85 active lightweights — from 75 inches of reach, and has never been knocked down in 21 Octagon rounds. Muslim Salikhov lands 3.37, which is 57th of 78 active welterweights, but blocks 62% of what comes back at him (7th) and absorbs only 2.96 a minute (21st). He is 42 years old on fight night, and two of his last five fights ended with him being stopped inside the opening round. This is volume and youth against efficiency and one clean counter.

Ignacio Bahamondes
Attribute
Muslim Salikhov
2913-year gap
Age
42
6'3"+4" Bahamondes
Height
5'11"
75"+5" Bahamondes
Reach
70"
—
Leg Reach
—
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Valle Flow Striking Academy
Team
Abdulmanap Nurmagomedov School
Apr 10, 2021
Octagon Debut
Nov 25, 2017
Length kickboxing, kick-heavy volume
Fighting Style
Counter right hand, Wushu spinning arsenal

Four inches of height, five inches of reach and thirteen years all belong to the Chilean. Salikhov made his Octagon walk in November 2017, four months before Bahamondes turned professional in the promotion's feeder circuit; he has 29 rounds of UFC data to Bahamondes's 21, and every one of them was fought at a lower output. Leg kicks matter here because both fight kick-first in the opening round: 24.7% of Bahamondes's first-round strikes go to the legs, and 32.2% of Salikhov's do.

Venue Factor
Three rounds is the shape that suits the younger man, and the round-by-round record says so plainly. Bahamondes's output climbs from 26.6 significant strikes in the first to 35.3 in the second, and he averages 10:25 per fight. Salikhov averages 9:02 because his nights end early in one direction or the other — three of his five UFC knockouts landed in the first round, and so did two of his own three knockout losses. The Glendale cage is standard; the clock is the variable.
02

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Ignacio Bahamondes landing a punch in the Octagon

Ignacio Bahamondes

Pro Record
17-7-0
UFC Record
6-4 across ten bouts since 2021
Streak
Two straight losses — unanimous decisions to Tofiq Musayev (Mar 28, 2026) and Rafael Fiziev (Jun 21, 2025)
Finish Rate
76% of wins (13 of 17) — 11 KO/TKO, 2 submissions
Avg Fight Time
10:25
Chin · Never dropped — 0 knockdowns absorbed in 21 UFC roundsSOS · Ranked-adjacent lightweightLength volume kickboxer

Five years in the Octagon and a fighter who has become steadily more finished. He lost a split decision to John Makdessi on debut in April 2021, then produced two of the more replayed finishes of the era — a spinning wheel kick on Roosevelt Roberts in the third, and a third-round submission of Rongzhu. The mature version arrived in 2024-25: Manuel Torres knocked out in the first at UFC 306, Jalin Turner submitted in 2:29 at UFC 313. What is remarkable in the data is what has never happened to him. Across 21 Octagon rounds he has not been knocked down once, and all four of his UFC losses went to the judges. His floor is a decision loss to elite pace; Rafael Fiziev found it in June 2025 and Tofiq Musayev in March 2026.

Muslim Salikhov landing a high kick in the Octagon

Muslim Salikhov

Pro Record
22-6-0
UFC Record
9-5 across fourteen bouts since 2017
Streak
Lost his last — Uros Medic TKO in 1:03 of R1 (Nov 8, 2025)
Finish Rate
77% of wins (17 of 22) — 15 KO/TKO, 2 submissions
Avg Fight Time
9:02
Chin · Vulnerable at 42 — three UFC knockout losses, two of them in his last five fightsSOS · Established UFC welterweightCounter striker with a Wushu finishing arsenal

A nine-year Octagon career built on efficiency rather than output. He lost his debut to Alex Garcia by submission in 2017 and then won nine of thirteen, most of them by making better decisions than his opponent inside a low-volume fight: split decisions over Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos and Santiago Ponzinibbio, a third-round knockout of Andre Fialho, first-round knockouts of Nordine Taleb and Song Kenan. The tail of that career is where the argument lives. Since June 2023 he has gone 3-3 — a decision loss to Nicolas Dalby, a first-round knockout loss to Randy Brown, three straight wins capped by a 42-second knockout of Carlos Leal, and a 63-second knockout loss to Uros Medic. His striking defence is still 7th of 78 active welterweights. His last five fights say that is no longer the whole story.

Ignacio Bahamondes
0 dealt · 0 absorbed
Knockdown Exchange
Knockdowns dealt vs absorbed.
Muslim Salikhov
0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Ignacio Bahamondessignature weapons

Spinning Wheel KickRoosevelt Roberts, R3 4:55 — still the highlight that defines him, and the reason his kick share stays high in every round
×1
Triangle and D'Arce ChokesJalin Turner in 2:29 of the first at UFC 313 and Rongzhu in the third — 0.6 submission attempts per 15 minutes against Salikhov's 0.00
×2
Length Jab and Kick Volume5.99 significant strikes per minute, 8th of 85 active lightweights; Torres and Giagos both stopped inside a round
×3

Muslim Salikhovsignature weapons

Counter Right HandNordine Taleb in 4:26, Song Kenan in 3:49, Carlos Leal in 0:42 — three of his five UFC knockouts arrived in the opening round
×3
Wushu Spinning ArsenalRicky Rainey, R2 4:12 — the Kung Fu inventory that produces finishes from angles opponents do not drill for
×1
Opening-Round Low Kick32.2% of his first-round significant strikes go to the legs — the highest leg share in either man's opening round — before he switches to 63.2% head in the second
×2

Ignacio Bahamondes

L
Tofiq Musayev
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: veteran

R3
UFC FN — Mar 28, 2026
L
Rafael Fiziev
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: elite

R3
UFC FN: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. — Jun 21, 2025
W
Jalin Turner
Submission — triangle choke

Opponent context: veteran

R1 (2:29)
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev — Mar 8, 2025
W
Manuel Torres
TKO — punches

Opponent context: prospect

R1 (4:02)
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC — Sep 14, 2024
W
Christos Giagos
KO — head kick

Opponent context: ufc

R1 (3:34)
UFC FN: Allen vs. Curtis 2 — Apr 6, 2024
Pattern

3-2 in the last five. Wins over Turner (submission), Torres (TKO) and Giagos (knockout). Losses to Musayev (decision) and Fiziev (decision). Most recent: a loss to Musayev, Mar 28, 2026.

Muslim Salikhov

L
Uros Medic
TKO — punches

Opponent context: prospect

R1 (1:03)
UFC FN: Bonfim vs. Brown — Nov 8, 2025
W
Carlos Leal
KO — punch

Opponent context: prospect

R1 (0:42)
UFC FN: Whittaker vs. De Ridder — Jul 26, 2025
W
Song Kenan
KO/TKO — Kick

Opponent context: prospect

R1 (3:49)
UFC FN: Yan vs. Figueiredo — Nov 23, 2024
W
Santiago Ponzinibbio
Decision — Split

Opponent context: veteran

R3
UFC FN — Jul 13, 2024
L
Randy Brown
KO/TKO — Punches

Opponent context: veteran

R1 (3:17)
UFC FN: Dolidze vs. Imavov — Feb 3, 2024
Pattern

The most binary recent tape on the card. Four of his last five fights ended in the opening round, and they split two and two: he knocked out Carlos Leal in 42 seconds and Song Kenan in 3:49, and he was knocked out by Randy Brown in 3:17 and by Uros Medic in 1:03. The one that went the distance, against Santiago Ponzinibbio, he won on a split decision. Randy Brown is the detail that should not be skipped — a 6'3" welterweight with a 76-inch reach who stopped him in the first round in February 2024, which is the closest physical rehearsal for Bahamondes anywhere on his record.

Ignacio Bahamondes

Win Methods
Wins by Round

Muslim Salikhov

Win Methods
Wins by Round
Critical Insight
Bahamondes: 11 KO/TKOs, 2 submissions and 4 decisions in 17 professional wins. Of Bahamondes's 13 finishes, nine in round one, two in round two and two in round three. Salikhov: 15 KO/TKOs, 2 submissions and 5 decisions in 22 professional wins. Of Salikhov's 17 finishes, 15 in round one, one in round two and one in round three. The round bars count every professional win, with decisions in the DEC column.

Opposition strength (no shared opponents)

Without a reliable shared-opponent table, compare who each fighter has been tested against using SOS tier, UFC sample size, and recent elite-tier form — not raw records alone.

FactorIgnacioMuslim
Strength of schedule (SOS tier)Ranked-adjacent lightweight — Beat Jalin Turner, Manuel Torres, Christos Giagos, Rongzhu, Roosevelt Roberts and Trey Ogden; lost to Musayev, Fiziev, Klein and MakdessiEstablished UFC welterweight — Beat Ponzinibbio, Zaleski dos Santos, Trinaldo, Fialho, Taleb, Song Kenan and Leal; lost to Li Jingliang, Dalby, Randy Brown and Medic
UFC sample6-4 across ten bouts since 20219-5 across fourteen bouts since 2017
Recent ranked / elite touches (last 5)1 elite · 2 veteran tier0 elite · 2 veteran tier
Form-window difficulty edge: Fighter A (8 vs 7 tier points in listed bouts).
Last three opponentsTofiq Musayev, Rafael Fiziev, Jalin TurnerUros Medic, Carlos Leal, Song Kenan
  • Randy Brown (physical proxy): A 6'3" welterweight with a 76-inch reach stopped Salikhov inside a round in February 2024 — the closest thing on tape to a Bahamondes rehearsal
  • Uros Medic (style proxy): A younger, longer pressure striker needed 63 seconds in November 2025 — Salikhov's most recent Octagon appearance
  • Rafael Fiziev (style proxy): An elite counter-timer out-pointed Bahamondes across fifteen minutes without ever hurting him — the template Salikhov needs and is thirteen years too old to run
03

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and UFC experience before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

SLpM 25% · StrAcc 30% · StrDef 30% · SApM 15%

0
Ignacio
0
Muslim

A split scorecard. Bahamondes owns the volume by a factor of nearly two (5.99 to 3.37) and the knockdown average (0.72 to 0.59); Salikhov owns accuracy (50% to 46%), defence (62% to 55%) and absorption (2.96 to 4.07). Output and pop beat efficiency here only because there are fifteen minutes to spend them in.

Grappling

TD/15 25% · TDAcc 25% · TDDef 30% · Sub/15 20%

0
Ignacio
0
Muslim

The one gauge that leans to the veteran, and it leans on entries alone. Salikhov attempts 1.07 takedowns per fifteen minutes at 32% accuracy; Bahamondes has attempted none at all in nine Octagon fights. Bahamondes answers with 70% takedown defence to Salikhov's 72% and the only live submission threat on the page.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

0
Ignacio
0.0
Muslim

A point and a half. On measured technique this is very nearly a coin flip, which is why the conviction on the page is four out of ten rather than seven.

Cardio

Fight time · pace · R3/R1 output · champ rounds

0
Ignacio
0
Muslim

The widest gauge on the page and the reason the lean exists. Bahamondes averages 10:25 a fight and raises his output to 35.3 significant strikes in the second round. Salikhov averages 9:02 and is 42 years old; his only fight since 2024 to go the full three rounds was a split-decision win over Santiago Ponzinibbio.

Overall

(Technical + Cardio) / 2

0
Ignacio
0
Muslim

Three composite points and a 57-43 model line that sits right on top of them. The analysis trimmed the site model's 58-42 to 57-43 and kept the lean; nothing in the statistical record argues for widening it.

MetricIgnacioMuslim
Avg Fight Time10:259:02
Pace TierElite volume — 5.99 SLpM (8th/85 LW)Low volume — 3.37 SLpM (57th/78 WW)
R3/R1 Output103% (27.5 vs 26.6 sig)131% (16.3 vs 12.4 sig)
Slow Start %Very low — 26.6 sig in R1 with 0.33 KDLow output, high threat — 12.4 sig with 0.29 KD
Champ Rounds3-round bout3-round bout

Archetype Base Rate

Length Volume Kickboxer 57%43% Counter Striker

Matchup-specific read of this booking · No historical archetype win-rate is applied. The 57-43 line is the editorial assessment's trim of the site model's 58-42, and it holds given the volume gap and the two recent losses on Salikhov's record.

Ignacio BahamondesMuslim Salikhov

Lightweight (Bahamondes) · Welterweight (Salikhov)

· 85 fighters

Rank bars use the recorded division cohort. Where no rank is shown, the comparison shows the difference from the published division average; the white marker denotes equality. Percentage differences are percentage points (pp). Higher is not always better: fewer strikes absorbed is preferable.

StatIgnacioIgnacio comparisonDiv avgMuslim comparisonMuslim
SLpM5.99
8/85elite
LW ~4.62 · WW ~4.53
57/85
3.37
Str Acc46%
47/85
LW ~48.6% · WW ~50.0%
30/85
50%
Str Def55%
30/85
LW ~54.1% · WW ~54.0%
7/85elite
62%
SApM4.07
42/85
LW ~4.17 · WW ~3.87
21/85
2.96
KD Avg0.72
15/85
LW ~0.59 · WW ~0.89
27/85
0.59
Damage Ratio1.47
—
LW ~1.11 · WW ~1.17
—
1.14
TD/150.00
74/85
LW ~1.58 · WW ~1.64
45/85
1.07
TD Acc0%
74/85
LW ~36.6% · WW ~39.1%
48/85
32%
TD Def70%
35/85
LW ~69.3% · WW ~68.7%
30/85
72%
Sub/150.60
28/85
LW ~0.50 · WW ~0.47
49/85
0.00
Avg Fight Time10:25
—
—
—
9:02
Statistical Verdict
Bahamondes's profile is a specialist's: 8th in the lightweight division for output and 15th for knockdowns, but 47th for accuracy, 47th for strikes absorbed and dead last-quartile in both takedown columns because he has never attempted one. Salikhov's is the mirror image — 7th of 78 welterweights in striking defence and 21st in absorption, but 57th in output and below his division's average knockdown rate of 0.89. Neither man wrestles: 90% of Bahamondes's career significant strikes land standing and 84% of Salikhov's do. This will be decided at range, and one of them throws twice as much there.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

Control Time per Round (sec)

Ignacio Bahamondes

  • His second round is his best round: output jumps from 26.6 significant strikes to 35.3, with 98.1% of them landing at distance. Nobody has knocked him down in 21 Octagon rounds.
  • Accuracy falls as volume climbs — 48%, then 44%, then 42%. He is throwing more and connecting less, which is the mechanism by which Klein and Fiziev out-pointed him.
  • Kicks stay in the mix all fight: 24.7% of first-round strikes go to the legs, 20.8% in the second, 19.4% in the third. Control time is negligible (18, 12, 26 seconds) — this is a pure distance fighter.

Muslim Salikhov

  • Fourteen rounds of first-round data, and it is the lowest-output opening round on the card: 12.4 significant strikes at 50% accuracy, with 0.29 knockdowns. He does not fill rounds, he waits for one.
  • The target map inverts after five minutes. First round: 32.2% legs, 39.1% head. Second round: 8.4% legs, 63.2% head. He buys range with low kicks, then hunts the counter once the opponent's feet slow.
  • His output actually rises with the fight — 12.4, then 17.2, then 16.3 — but from a base so low that a 31% increase still leaves him at half of Bahamondes's second round.
Critical Insight
The two round-by-round profiles cross in the second round and never come back. Bahamondes peaks there at 35.3 significant strikes; Salikhov peaks there at 17.2. Even at the veteran's best round and the Chilean's worst accuracy, the raw landed count is better than two to one. What the data cannot show is the 0.29 knockdowns Salikhov averages in a first round he barely fills — 12.4 strikes is not a round he is trying to win, it is a round he is trying to end.

Strike targeting

Ignacio

Head
55%
Body
23%
Legs
22%

Muslim

Head
53%
Body
29%
Legs
18%

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

IgnacioMuslim
89%Distance84%
6%Clinch6%
5%Ground10%

Share of significant strikes landed at distance, in the clinch and on the ground across each fighter's UFC rounds, weighted by strike volume.

04

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much
Open SpaceIgnacio owns it

5.99 SLpM from 75 inches, with 81-98% of his offence landing at distance in every round

Pocket / ExchangesMuslim owns it

62% striking defence (7th of 78) and three first-round UFC knockouts — the one place the veteran wins

ClinchMuslim owns it

Salikhov's clinch share rises to 9-10% by the later rounds; Bahamondes's second round is 1.9% clinch

GroundIgnacio owns it

70% takedown defence and 0.6 submission attempts per 15 min against 1.07 entries and 0.00 submission offence

Path to Victory

Ignacio Bahamondes

Fifteen minutes at 75 inches. Nearly twice the output at a range Salikhov cannot cover, and a submission threat behind it if the veteran ever shoots and fails.

Why they win
01
Nearly double the volume

5.99 significant strikes per minute against 3.37 — 8th of 85 active lightweights against 57th of 78 welterweights. Over fifteen minutes that is roughly 98 strikes to 51.

02
Five inches of reach and four of height

75 inches against 70, from a 6'3" frame. Salikhov's answer to length was tested by Randy Brown, a 6'3" welterweight with a 76-inch reach, and he was stopped in the first round.

03
Never been knocked down

Zero knockdowns absorbed across 21 Octagon rounds, and all four of his UFC losses went to the judges. Salikhov's single path requires doing something nobody has done to him.

04
Thirteen years younger

29 against 42. Salikhov's last five fights are 3-2 with two first-round knockout losses; Bahamondes averages 10:25 per fight and raises his output in the second round.

05
The only submission on the page

0.6 attempts per fifteen minutes with a Jalin Turner triangle choke on record, against Salikhov's 0.00. If the veteran's 1.07 takedowns per fifteen minutes ever land badly, there is a finish waiting.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Jab and kick at 75 inches

    The published plan, and the data agrees: 98.1% of his second-round offence lands at distance. Salikhov cannot close five inches of reach without giving up the counter window he needs.

  2. 2
    Never stand still

    Salikhov's whole game is 0.59 knockdowns off a stationary target. Lateral movement turns his best weapon into a swing at air and his 12.4-strike round into a 10-strike round.

  3. 3
    Bank the second round

    35.3 significant strikes is his peak and it is also Salikhov's lowest-value five minutes at 42. If one round has to be decisive, make it that one.

  4. 4
    Attack the legs early

    24.7% of his first-round output already goes there. Against a fighter whose entire case depends on timing one exchange, taking the base is worth more than head-hunting.

  5. 5
    Take the back if it goes down

    0.6 submission attempts per fifteen minutes against 0.00 submission defence on record. Salikhov's occasional takedown is the one door that opens onto Bahamondes's second-best finish.

Path to Victory

Muslim Salikhov

One counter, inside five minutes. Three of his five UFC knockouts landed in the opening round and he needs this one to be the fourth — because the arithmetic after that belongs to a man thirteen years younger.

Why they win
01
Elite defensive striking

62% striking defence is 7th of 78 active welterweights, and 2.96 absorbed per minute is 21st. He is the hardest man on the prelims to hit cleanly.

02
The counter right hand

0.59 knockdowns per fifteen minutes and three first-round UFC knockouts — Taleb, Song Kenan, and Carlos Leal in 42 seconds. His best nights need one exchange, not fifteen minutes.

03
Bahamondes gets less accurate as he throws more

48% in the first round, 44% in the second, 42% in the third. A counter fighter's entire living is made in the gaps that open when volume outruns precision.

04
The only takedown threat

1.07 attempts per fifteen minutes at 32% accuracy against a man who has never shot one. It is not a wrestling win, but it is the one rhythm-breaker on the page.

05
Nine years and 29 Octagon rounds

Fourteen UFC fights, four decision wins, split verdicts survived against Ponzinibbio and Zaleski dos Santos. He knows how to win a fight that never becomes a firefight.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Hunt the first round

    Three of five UFC knockouts landed there, and the analysis is blunt about it — minutes 0:00 to 5:00 are where his entire live case lives.

  2. 2
    Low kicks to buy the range

    32.2% of his opening-round strikes go to the legs. Against a man who fights entirely at distance, taking the lead leg is how the counter window is manufactured.

  3. 3
    Counter the third and fourth shot

    Bahamondes's accuracy drops to 44% in the second and 42% in the third. The misses are the openings — 62% striking defence exists to survive long enough to find them.

  4. 4
    Use the takedown as a reset, never a plan

    1.07 attempts per fifteen minutes into 70% defence will mostly fail, and a failed shot against 0.6 submission attempts per fifteen minutes is how this fight ends badly.

  5. 5
    Do not accept a fifteen-minute war

    9:02 average fight time and a 3-3 record since June 2023. Every minute past the first round is a minute the thirteen-year age gap collects on.

Danger Zone

How Ignacio Bahamondes loses

  • He stands square in the pocket in the first five minutes and walks onto the counter that ended Taleb, Song Kenan and Leal inside a round.

  • The Fiziev pattern repeats in reverse: he throws 35 strikes in the second at 44% accuracy, Salikhov lands 17 at 49%, and three judges reward the cleaner work.

  • A first-round takedown breaks his rhythm, the fight becomes a low-volume kickboxing match, and 3.37 strikes a minute is suddenly enough to win rounds.

Danger Zone

How Muslim Salikhov loses

  • The 12.4-strike opening round arrives against someone who fills it with 26.6, and he is down a round before his counter has had a look.

  • The second round happens. Bahamondes's 35.3 significant strikes at distance against a 42-year-old is the exact scenario his cardio profile cannot answer.

  • Randy Brown and Uros Medic happen again — a longer, younger man finds him early and the fight ends inside the opening round for the third time in five appearances.

The fight's central axis

Two Strikes For Every One

Ignacio Bahamondes lands 5.99 significant strikes per minute — 8th of 85 active lightweights — against Muslim Salikhov's 3.37, which is 57th of 78 active welterweights. Over three rounds that is roughly 98 significant strikes against 51, and the gap widens in the second round where Bahamondes peaks at 35.3 and Salikhov peaks at 17.2.

5.99
Bahamondes SLpM vs Salikhov's 3.37
Why the favourite is favoured

The Randy Brown Rehearsal

In February 2024 a 6'3" welterweight with a 76-inch reach knocked Muslim Salikhov out in 3:17 of the first round. Twenty-one months later Uros Medic needed 63 seconds. Bahamondes is 6'3" with 75 inches of reach. Two of Salikhov's last five fights ended exactly the way this matchup is shaped.

3-2
Salikhov's record in his last five Octagon fights
How the counter is manufactured

The Thirty-Two Percent Round

32.2% of Salikhov's first-round significant strikes go to the legs — the highest leg share in either man's opening round — and then collapses to 8.4% in the second as head share jumps from 39.1% to 63.2%. He is not a low-kicker; he is buying range with them, then cashing it in on a slower target.

32.2%
Salikhov's R1 leg-strike share, falling to 8.4% in R2
The underdog's structural argument

Volume Up, Accuracy Down

Bahamondes throws more each round and connects less: 48% accuracy in the first, 44% in the second, 42% in the third. That is the exact profile Ludovit Klein and Rafael Fiziev out-pointed. A counter fighter with 62% striking defence lives in the space those misses create.

The honest ceiling on the upset

Nobody Has Dropped Him

Across 21 Octagon rounds Ignacio Bahamondes has absorbed zero knockdowns, and all four of his UFC losses were decisions. Salikhov's 22 win-shares by knockout require him to do something ten previous opponents, including Rafael Fiziev, could not.

0
Knockdowns absorbed by Bahamondes in 21 UFC rounds

The Five-Round Clock

Ignacio Bahamondes danger windowMuslim Salikhov danger windowNeutral / contested
R1 · 0:00–5:00Salikhov's window

Three of his five UFC knockouts landed in the opening round, at 0.29 knockdowns per first round off only 12.4 significant strikes. He does not fill this round, he tries to end it.

Critical Insight
The clock runs one way. Salikhov's entire live equity sits in the opening five minutes — the round where he throws least and threatens most. Past the halfway mark, Bahamondes's output rises, Salikhov's plateaus at half of it, and thirteen years start collecting. If the counter has not landed by the second-round horn, the arithmetic finishes the job.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

05

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things
1

Ignacio Bahamondes lands 5.99 significant strikes per minute to Muslim Salikhov's 3.37 — 8th of 85 active lightweights against 57th of 78 welterweights. Over fifteen minutes that is roughly 98 strikes to 51.

2

Salikhov's 62% striking defence is 7th in his division, but his last five fights read 3-2 with first-round knockout losses to Randy Brown — a 6'3" welterweight — and Uros Medic. Bahamondes is 6'3" and has never been knocked down in 21 Octagon rounds.

3

Model: Bahamondes 57% / Salikhov 43%, conviction 4/10 — a low-conviction lean, because 22 of the underdog's 43 win-shares are one counter right hand inside the opening five minutes.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Bahamondes Decision — 28%Bahamondes KO/TKO — 24%Bahamondes Submission — 5%Salikhov KO/TKO — 22%Salikhov Decision — 18%Salikhov Submission — 3%

Each square = 1 model percentage point. Ignacio Bahamondes gold · Muslim Salikhov orange · color opacity: 100% = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

The volume gap

5.99 significant strikes a minute against 3.37, across fifteen minutes. In every branch where the fight is contested at range and reaches the cards, Bahamondes's decision bucket (28 of 100) is the largest single outcome on the page.

First-round counter variance

Salikhov's knockout path is worth 22 win-shares, nearly all of it concentrated in the opening five minutes. Three of his five UFC knockouts landed there, one of them in 42 seconds.

Thirteen years

29 against 42, with a 3-3 record for the veteran since June 2023 including two first-round knockout losses. The cardio composite (56 to 50) is the widest gauge on the page for a reason.

Accuracy regression

Bahamondes connects on 48% in round one, 44% in round two and 42% in round three. That decay is exactly what Klein and Fiziev exploited, and it is why Salikhov's decision bucket is a non-trivial 18.

The knockdown ledger

Bahamondes has dealt five knockdowns and absorbed none in 21 Octagon rounds. Salikhov has dealt five and absorbed three in 29. The chin evidence points one way.

Fight Scripts

0%
of simulations

The Length Clinic

Bahamondes jabs and kicks his way through fifteen minutes at 75 inches, out-landing Salikhov close to two to one. The veteran's defence keeps it respectable and never dangerous — the Nicolas Dalby loss, with a younger man doing the out-working.

Scripted outcomes for Ignacio Bahamondes vs Muslim Salikhov — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Ignacio Bahamondes win probability
0%
24%
28%
5%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • 0.72 knockdowns per fifteen minutes, 15th of 85 active lightweights, against a 42-year-old who has been stopped inside a round twice in his last five fights. Three of his six UFC wins ended by knockout.

  • His largest bucket and the shape of the fight the numbers describe: nearly double the output at a range the veteran cannot close. Ironically, decisions are the rarest outcome on his own record — one in six UFC wins.

  • Five points. 0.6 submission attempts per fifteen minutes with a Jalin Turner triangle choke and a Rongzhu finish on record, against an opponent with no submission offence and 1.07 takedown entries per fifteen minutes to give away.

Muslim Salikhov win probability
0%
22%
18%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • His largest bucket by some distance and the whole of his identity. Three of his five UFC knockouts landed in the first round, one in 42 seconds. It is capped at 22 because nobody has knocked Bahamondes down in 21 Octagon rounds.

  • Eighteen points, built on 62% striking defence and Bahamondes's accuracy sliding from 48% to 42% across three rounds. Klein and Fiziev both won that way — but neither was 42 years old.

  • Three points. He has 0.00 submission attempts per fifteen minutes and no submission wins in the Octagon; these are scramble outcomes rather than a hunted path.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round
R1
Ignacio
R2
Ignacio
R3
Ignacio
30-27 Bahamondes
The volume runs unopposed for fifteen minutes
The most likely card in a fight that reaches them
29-28 Bahamondes
Salikhov steals the first on cleaner work and a wobble
The competitive version, and common
29-28 Salikhov
Two efficient rounds and three judges who reward accuracy over output
The Klein and Fiziev pattern turned against the Chilean

Model and price

Ignacio Bahamondes

Quote age unknown
Model win probability
57%
Fair odds
-133
Reference quote
-525 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds
1.75
Estimated EV
-32.1%
Edge vs no-vig market
-23.8 pp

Muslim Salikhov

Quote age unknown
Model win probability
43%
Fair odds
+133
Reference quote
+400 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds
2.33
Estimated EV
+115.0%
Edge vs no-vig market
+23.8 pp

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash marks a price without a same-book pair to compare.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Quotes listed with a date but no time are treated as undated.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Ignacio Bahamondes

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 1.76 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Muslim Salikhov

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 2.33 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

Salikhov by knockout is the live upset prop the analysis flags, and the simulation agrees: 22 of his 43 win-shares, and the single largest outcome on his side of the page. If the market prices Bahamondes as a heavy favourite on the strength of the volume line and the veteran's age, the underdog's inside-the-distance side is where the model disagrees most sharply. Bahamondes by decision is the chalk grind at 28 of 100.

Conviction
0
4/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

A genuine but modest lean on volume, length and thirteen years of age — held to four out of ten because the technical composites separate by a single point and a counter right hand that has ended three UFC fights in the first round does not care about any of it. Lean: Ignacio Bahamondes.

What backs the lean

  • 5.99 significant strikes per minute against 3.37 — 8th of 85 lightweights against 57th of 78 welterweights.

  • Five inches of reach, four inches of height, and thirteen years younger.

  • Zero knockdowns absorbed in 21 Octagon rounds; all four UFC losses went to the judges.

  • Salikhov is 3-2 in his last five with first-round knockout losses to Randy Brown and Uros Medic.

What limits it

  • Salikhov's 62% striking defence is 7th of 78 active welterweights and he absorbs only 2.96 a minute.

  • Bahamondes's accuracy falls from 48% to 42% across three rounds — the profile Klein and Fiziev out-pointed.

  • Three of Salikhov's five UFC knockouts landed in the first round, one of them in 42 seconds.

  • The technical composite gap is 55 to 53.5. On measured skill this is close to a coin flip.

Final Assessment

This is a fight about how many minutes there are. Ignacio Bahamondes lands 5.99 significant strikes a minute from 75 inches of reach and raises that to 35.3 in a second round; Muslim Salikhov lands 3.37 and peaks at 17.2. Across fifteen minutes there is no arrangement of those numbers that favours the veteran, which is why the model, the composites and the age column all point the same way.

The reason it is only 57-43 is that Salikhov does not need fifteen minutes. Three of his five UFC knockouts landed in the opening round and one of them took 42 seconds, and his first round is deliberately the emptiest on the card — 12.4 significant strikes, 32.2% of them low kicks, all of it manufacturing one window. Against a fighter whose accuracy drops as his volume climbs, that window is real. It is capped only by the single cleanest line in the statistical record on either man: in 21 Octagon rounds, nobody has knocked Bahamondes down.

The honest read: the Chilean should win, most likely on the cards or by second-round accumulation, and the version where he does not is short and happens before the fight has settled. Take Bahamondes narrowly, respect the first five minutes completely, and note that a 6'3" welterweight has already done this to Salikhov once — Randy Brown, February 2024, 3:17 of the first.

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