Tim Elliott vs Edgar Cháirez: analysis & prediction

PRELIM · FLYWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Silva vs. Delgado
Tim Elliott — Flyweight fighter

Tim Elliott

22W14L1D
Chaos Wrestler
VS
Edgar Cháirez — Flyweight fighter

Edgar Cháirez

14W6L
Submission Hunter

Ninety seconds of control a round against a man who has never had any

FlyweightDesert Diamond Arena, Glendale, ArizonaSeptember 12, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Elliott's 3.61 takedowns per 15 minutes target Cháirez's recorded 48% takedown defence. His route depends on turning scrambles into control and offence; Cháirez needs to regain his feet without giving Elliott repeated opportunities to attack from dominant positions.

Paths that change the fight

  • Tim ElliottTakedowns that stick and a neck he does not chase. 3.61 entries per fifteen minutes into 48% defence, ridden for eighty seconds a round, and the cards write themselves.
  • Edgar CháirezOne scramble. He does not need to out-wrestle Elliott — he needs Elliott's own takedown to put a neck within reach, which is how five of the veteran's eleven UFC losses ended.
What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 3/10
  • Five of Elliott's eleven UFC losses are submissions, and Cháirez's 1.44 attempts per fifteen minutes rank 7th in the division.
  • Opposing submission attempts on Elliott rise every round — 0.19, 0.24, 0.29 — and he is 39 years old.

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Tim Elliott

Freshness unverified
Model win probability
55%
Fair decimal odds
1.82
Reference quote+186 (BetOnline)

Quote verified:

Edgar Cháirez

Freshness unverified
Model win probability
45%
Fair decimal odds
2.22
Reference quote-220 (BetOnline)

Quote verified:

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Sources and data limitations

Career-rate review: September 10, 2026. Tim Elliott: Published career rates; latest listed bout is Erceg in May 2026. Edgar Cháirez: Published career rates include DWCS and UFC; latest listed bout is Bruno Silva in June 2026. Historical round coverage may be incomplete. Composite scores and forecasts remain editorial estimates; updating descriptive rates does not recalibrate the prediction.

Model methodology
Read the evidenceInspect prices and assumptions
01

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

Elliott brings wrestling volume at 3.61 takedowns per 15 minutes; Cháirez's published defense is 48%, with 1.44 submission attempts per 15 minutes. Cháirez added a decision over Felipe Bunes and a submission of Bruno Silva in 2026. The contest is control against counter submissions, with more recent evidence than the older round sample contains.

Tim Elliott
Attribute
Edgar Cháirez
39
Age
30
5'7"
Height
5'7"
66"
Reach
+5" Cháirez71"
N/A
Leg Reach
N/A
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
NEXT Generation MMA
Team
Not published in the statistical record
May 5, 2012
Octagon Debut
Jul 8, 2023
54
Octagon Rounds Logged
9
Chain wrestling into scramble submissions
Fighting Style
Distance kickboxing into submission hunting

Same height, different everything else. Both men measure 5'7", but Cháirez carries five inches more reach — 71" against 66" — and nine fewer years. The mileage gap is the wider one: Elliott has logged 54 Octagon rounds since May 2012 and Cháirez has logged nine since July 2023, a six-to-one ratio that shapes every projection on this page. Neither fighter has a published leg reach, which is worth flagging because 48.0% of Cháirez's opening-round strikes land on the legs — the single most distinctive line in his profile.

Venue Factor
A standard 30ft Octagon gives the longer man room to use the extra five inches, and Cháirez needs it: 96.0% of his first-round output lands at distance, 96.9% in the second, 100.0% in the third. He has landed three clinch strikes and three ground strikes in his entire UFC career — 2% each. Elliott's distance share falls from 66.6% in the first round to 52.6% in the third as the fight migrates to the fence and the mat. The cage is not the variable here; whether Elliott's 3.61 takedowns per fifteen minutes convert against 48% defence is.
02

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Tim Elliott in action at UFC Vegas 83

Tim Elliott

Pro Record
22-14-1
UFC Record
10-11 across 21 Octagon bouts since 2012
Streak
Two straight — submission of Kai Asakura at UFC 319 (R2, 4:39)
Finish Rate
3 of 10 UFC wins by submission; the other seven are decisions
Avg Fight Time
12:08
Chin · Never knocked downSOS · Championship-adjacentChaos wrestler into scramble submissions

Fourteen years and 54 rounds in the same division, and the shape of the career has never changed: he takes people down, makes the fight ugly, and either taps them in a scramble or banks the cards. Seven of his ten UFC wins are decisions and all three finishes are submissions — Kai Asakura in the second at UFC 319, Sumudaerji in the first, Mark De La Rosa in the second. He has never scored a knockout in the Octagon and he has never been knocked down in it either: two knockdowns dealt, zero absorbed, across 54 rounds. The losses have a signature too. Five of his eleven are submissions — Figueiredo, Benavidez, Ben Nguyen in 49 seconds, Brandon Royval, Muhammad Mokaev — and none are by strikes. At 39 he is coming off the best win of his late career and remains without a refreshed division rank in takedown volume.

Edgar Cháirez fighting in the Octagon

Edgar Cháirez

Pro Record
14-6-0
UFC Record
4-2 with one no-contest across seven UFC appearances
Streak
Won his last — submission of CJ Vergara in 2:30
Finish Rate
Both UFC wins by first-round submission
Avg Fight Time
8:56
Chin · Never knocked downSOS · RisingDistance kickboxer with submission offence

Cháirez has UFC submission wins over Lacerda, Vergara and Bruno Silva, plus a split decision over Bunes. The June 2026 Silva finish is his latest listed fight. He can win a decision; the earlier two-win sample does not represent his current career.

Tim Elliott
0 dealt · 0 absorbed
Knockdown Exchange
KD dealt vs absorbed
Edgar Cháirez
0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Tim Elliottsignature weapons

Scramble SubmissionKai Asakura (R2, UFC 319), Mark De La Rosa (R2), Sumudaerji (R1) — 1.06 attempts per 15 min, peaking at 0.53 per second round
×3
Chain Takedowns into ControlElliott’s published career rate is 3.61 takedowns per 15 minutes. A current, comparable takedown-accuracy figure remains unverified.
×7

Edgar Cháirezsignature weapons

First-Round SubmissionDaniel Lacerda in 2:17 and CJ Vergara in 2:30 — both UFC wins, both inside 150 seconds
×2
Takedown OffenceZero takedowns landed and zero attempted across nine Octagon rounds — 0.00 per 15 min, 40th of 45
×0

Tim Elliott

L
Steve Erceg
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: veteran

RR3
UFC FN — May 2, 2026
W
Kai Asakura
Submission

Opponent context: veteran

RR2 (4:39)
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev
W
Sumudaerji
Submission

Opponent context: prospect

RR1 (4:02)
UFC FN: Song vs. Gutierrez
L
Muhammad Mokaev
Submission

Opponent context: prospect

RR3 (3:03)
UFC 294
W
Victor Altamirano
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: prospect

RR3
UFC FN: Kara-France vs. Albazi
Pattern

Four wins in his last five and the one loss is the tell: Muhammad Mokaev submitted him in the third round of UFC 294, the same way Royval, Nguyen, Benavidez and Figueiredo did before. Elliott does not get out-struck and he does not get stopped by punches — zero knockdowns absorbed in 54 rounds — he gets caught in the grappling he starts. The Asakura submission at UFC 319 is the strongest recent evidence on the page: a former RIZIN champion, finished in the second round, at 38 years old.

Edgar Cháirez

W
Bruno Silva
SUB — Rear-naked choke

Opponent context: ufc

R1
UFC Fight Night — Jun 6, 2026
W
Felipe Bunes
Decision — Split

Opponent context: ufc

R3
UFC Fight Night — Feb 28, 2026
W
CJ Vergara
Submission

Opponent context: prospect

RR1 (2:30)
UFC FN: Moreno vs. Erceg
L
Joshua Van
Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: elite

RR3
UFC 306
W
Daniel Lacerda
Submission

Opponent context: prospect

RR1 (2:17)
UFC FN: Moreno vs. Royval 2
Pattern

This is his entire UFC record, and it is binary. Two submissions inside 2:30. Two unanimous-decision losses over the full fifteen minutes. One no-contest. Taira and Van are the two best fighters he has faced and both beat him the same way — by refusing the early scramble and letting a 46% striking defence pay them for three rounds. The Vergara win snapped that pattern, but it lasted 150 seconds, which is exactly the point.

Tim Elliott

Win Methods
Wins by Round

Edgar Cháirez

Win Methods
Wins by Round
Critical Insight
The method charts use documented UFC wins. Cháirez has three submission wins and one decision, including both 2026 victories. Elliott’s displayed historical subset contains seven decisions and three submissions; it is not a claim that no later bouts exist.

Common Opponents

OpponentTimEdgar
Tatsuro Taira (style proxy)—(blueprint for Elliott)L· UD3 (UFC 290)
A grappler who declined the early scramble and out-positioned Cháirez for fifteen minutes — the closest thing to a preview of Elliott's plan on tape
Muhammad Mokaev (style proxy)L· SUB R3 (UFC 294)—(blueprint for Cháirez)
The most recent of five submission losses on Elliott's UFC record, and it arrived in the third round of a grappling fight he was in charge of
Joshua Van (style proxy)—(a fight Elliott will not copy)L· UD3 (UFC 306)
Van beat Cháirez by refusing the mat entirely and punishing a 46% striking defence. Elliott's whole identity is the opposite approach
03

The Numbers

Composites, division ranks and round-by-round evidence

Composite scores summarize selected statistics on a 0–100 scale. They are not win probabilities. Compare the underlying metrics, opponent quality and sample flags before interpreting a score difference as a matchup advantage.

Striking

SLpM 25% · StrAcc 30% · StrDef 30% · SApM 15%

0
Tim
0
Edgarsmall sample

Output is a wash — 3.51 against 3.76, 45% accuracy against 44% — so the gap is entirely defensive. Elliott blocks 56% and absorbs 3.00 per minute; Cháirez blocks 46% and absorbs 4.71, which are 43rd and 41st of 45 flyweights.

Grappling

TD/15 25% · TDAcc 25% · TDDef 30% · Sub/15 20%

0
Tim
0
Edgarsmall sample

The closest composite on the page and the most misleading. Elliott owns initiative — 3.61 takedowns per fifteen minutes into 48% defence — while Cháirez owns the finishing rate, 1.44 submission attempts per fifteen against Elliott's 1.12. Same phase, opposite roles.

Technical

(Striking + Grappling) / 2

0
Tim
0.0
Edgarsmall sample

Six and a half points, all of it earned in the defensive columns. On measured technique Elliott is the better fighter in every phase he chooses to enter.

Cardio

Fight time · pace · R3/R1 output · champ rounds

0
Tim
0
Edgarsmall sample

Elliott's average fight lasts 12:08 and his output actually rises in the third round, from 16.4 to 19.1 significant strikes. Cháirez averages 8:56 and his third-round output falls to 13.0. Elliott has one championship-rounds bout on record; Cháirez has none.

Overall

(Technical + Cardio) / 2

0.0
Tim
0.0
Edgarsmall sample

Five composite points and a 55-45 model line that sits right on top of them. This is the rare page where the model and the composites agree almost exactly — and where the conviction is still only three out of ten.

MetricTimEdgar
Avg Fight Time12:088:56
Control Time / Round99s · 80s · 95s8s · 7s · 14ssmall sample
Pace TierMid volume — 3.51 SLpM (29th/45)Mid volume — 3.76 SLpM (27th/45)small sample
R3/R1 Output116% (19.1 vs 16.4 sig)87% (13.0 vs 15.0 sig)small sample
Champ Rounds1 bout — 5 rounds vs Demetrious JohnsonNone on record
Octagon Rounds Logged54 across 21 bouts9 across 5 boutssmall sample

Archetype Base Rate

Chaos Wrestler 55%45% Submission Hunter

No archetype base-rate row for this pairing · No historical archetype win-rate is applied. The 55-45 lean is the site model's, and the editorial assessment agrees with it: wrestling initiative into a 48% takedown defence, discounted for Elliott's age and for the fact that five of his eleven UFC losses came by submission in exactly the positions he creates.

Tim ElliottEdgar Cháirez

Flyweight

· 45 fighters
StatTimTim rankDiv avgEdgar rankEdgar
SLpM3.51—~3.82—3.76
Str Acc43%—~46.6%—46%
Str Def56%—~55.2%—46%
SApM3.00—~3.47—4.71
KD Avg0.11—~0.82—0.62
Damage Ratio1.17—~1.10—0.80
TD/153.61—~1.57—0.00
TD AccNot verified—~36.7%—0%
TD Def59%—~61.6%—48%
Sub/151.06—~0.78—1.44
Avg Fight Time12:08———8:56
Statistical Verdict
The updated rates support a control-versus-submission matchup: Elliott 3.61 TD/15, Cháirez 1.44 submission attempts/15 and 48% takedown defense. The old division ranks have been removed; they did not use these updated rates.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

Control Time per Round (sec)

Tim Elliott

  • Control time is the whole story: 99 seconds in the first round, 80 in the second, 95 in the third, across 54 Octagon rounds. He does not build to the grappling — he starts there.
  • His output rises in the third round to 19.1 significant strikes, his best of the fight, and the ground share rises with it from 16.3% to 24.6%.
  • His own submission attempts peak in the second round at 0.53 per round. Both of his second-round finishes — Asakura and De La Rosa — arrived in that window.
  • The exposure runs the other way too: opponents attempt 0.19 submissions on him in the first round, 0.24 in the second and 0.29 in the third. The longer his grappling fight lasts, the more often someone is on his neck.

Edgar Cháirez

  • He has essentially never controlled anyone: 8, 7 and 14 seconds of control per round, against Elliott's 99, 80 and 95.
  • He is a pure distance fighter by the numbers — 96.0%, 96.9% and 100.0% of his output lands at range, and he has landed three clinch strikes and three ground strikes in his entire UFC career.
  • 48.0% of his first-round strikes go to the legs, the most distinctive line in his profile, and that share collapses to 6.3% and 7.7% once the fight goes long.
  • Nine rounds of evidence in total, and only two of them are second or third rounds. His late-fight rows rest on the Taira and Van decisions alone.
Critical Insight
Two profiles that barely overlap. Elliott's fight lives in the eighty-to-a-hundred seconds of control he takes every round and the submissions he threatens from it; Cháirez's lives at range, where 96% of his career output has landed. There is no phase both men are comfortable in, which is why the model splits so close to even despite a five-point composite gap — the fight is decided by whether the takedowns land at all, not by who is better once they do.

Strike targeting (available rounds)

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

TimEdgar
63%Distance97%
18%Clinch2%
19%Ground1%

Approximate share of significant strikes by range in available rounds, weighted by strike volume. Incomplete splits are excluded. Debutants / fighters without Octagon samples show as N/A.

04

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much
Open SpaceEdgar owns it

+5" of reach, 96-100% of his career output at distance, and 48.0% of his opening-round strikes to the legs

Pocket / ExchangesEdgar owns it

0.28 knockdown average against 0.12 — though neither man has ever been knocked down in the Octagon

ClinchTim owns it

17-23% of Elliott's output lands in the clinch; Cháirez has three clinch strikes in his UFC career, 2% of his total

GroundTim owns it

3.61 TD/15 into 48% defence and ~85 seconds a round of control — discounted by Cháirez's 1.44 submission attempts, 7th of 45

Path to Victory

Tim Elliott

Takedowns that stick and a neck he does not chase. 3.61 entries per fifteen minutes into 48% defence, ridden for eighty seconds a round, and the cards write themselves.

Why they win
01
The structural mismatch

3.61 takedowns per fifteen minutes, without a refreshed division rank, into a 48% takedown defence with no refreshed rank. There is no wider single-phase gap on the Glendale prelim card.

02
Control nobody else has

99, 80 and 95 seconds of control per round across 54 Octagon rounds. Cháirez's career figures are 8, 7 and 14 — roughly eighty seconds a round of positional difference.

03
The better defensive striker

56% striking defence and 3.00 absorbed per minute against 46% and 5.08. Output is level at 3.51 to 3.76, so every standing minute is a trade Elliott wins on the ledger.

04
Fourteen years of the same problem

Twenty-one Octagon bouts, a title challenge against Demetrious Johnson, and a second-round submission of Kai Asakura at 38. He has seen every version of this fight.

05
He is not fading inside three rounds

Output rises from 16.4 to 19.1 significant strikes by the third round and control stays at 95 seconds. His average fight lasts 12:08 against Cháirez's 8:56.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Shoot in the first minute

    99 seconds of first-round control is his career high and Cháirez's first round is where all of his danger lives — 0.80 submission attempts and his only Octagon knockdown. Take the position before he can hunt from it.

  2. 2
    Ride, do not dive

    The published warning in one line: threaten submissions without chasing them. His own attempts peak at 0.53 in the second round, and that is also where opponents' attempts on him start climbing.

  3. 3
    Make it a clinch fight

    22.8% of his third-round offence lands in the clinch. Cháirez has three clinch strikes in his entire UFC career — 2% of his output. The fence is the safest version of the grappling.

  4. 4
    Do not box at 71 inches

    Five inches of reach and a leg-kick share of 48.0% in the opening round. Standing at range for free is the one place his 56% defence stops paying.

  5. 5
    Bank the third

    His output peaks at 19.1 significant strikes in the third round and Cháirez's falls to 13.0 with 100% of it at distance. The championship-round experience he owns and the opponent lacks matters most in the last five minutes.

Path to Victory

Edgar Cháirez

One scramble. He does not need to out-wrestle Elliott — he needs Elliott's own takedown to put a neck within reach, which is how five of the veteran's eleven UFC losses ended.

Why they win
01
1.44 submission attempts per fifteen minutes

7th of 45 flyweights against a divisional average of 0.78, and six attempts in only nine Octagon rounds. Every position Elliott creates is a position he can lose from.

02
Elliott's losses have one shape

Five of his eleven UFC defeats are submissions — Figueiredo, Benavidez, Nguyen in 49 seconds, Royval, Mokaev — and none are by strikes. Cháirez only fights the way that beats him.

03
The exposure grows by the round

Opponents attempt 0.19 submissions on Elliott in the first round, 0.24 in the second and 0.29 in the third. The longer the grappling lasts, the more often his neck is available.

04
Five inches and nine years

71" of reach against 66", and 30 years old against 39. If the takedowns miss, this is a kickboxing match at a range Elliott cannot reach.

05
He ends fights before cards matter

Both UFC wins are first-round submissions, at 2:17 and 2:30. Neither reached the point where his 46% striking defence starts costing him.

The gameplan
  1. 1
    Guillotine every entry

    1.44 submission attempts per fifteen minutes is his one elite column. He does not need to stop the takedown — he needs the takedown to arrive with a head in the wrong place.

  2. 2
    Sprawl and step out, never stall

    48% takedown defence means the shots land. Eight seconds of control per round means he has never learned to be underneath. Scrambles, not guard.

  3. 3
    Use the legs early

    48.0% of his first-round strikes go to the legs. Against a 39-year-old whose entries depend on level changes, that is the one weapon that compounds over fifteen minutes.

  4. 4
    Own the first five minutes

    Both of his UFC wins ended inside 2:30 and his knockdown average is 0.28 against Elliott's 0.12. His equity is front-loaded and it decays fast.

  5. 5
    Refuse the fence

    97% of his career significant strikes land standing. Every second spent against the cage is a second in the only phase where he has no recorded offence at all.

Danger Zone

How Tim Elliott loses

  • He shoots, Cháirez sits into a guillotine, and it ends the way UFC 294 ended — the fifth submission loss of a career that keeps producing them.

  • The entries fail early, the fight stays at 71 inches of range, and he spends fifteen minutes reaching for a man nine years younger.

  • At 39, one exhausted scramble in the second round is all the opening a fighter with 1.44 submission attempts per fifteen minutes needs.

Danger Zone

How Edgar Cháirez loses

  • The first takedown lands inside a minute and he spends the rest of the round underneath — the Taira fight again, for fifteen minutes.

  • He never attempts a takedown, never scores control, and loses every round on positional dominance without ever being hurt.

  • The fight stays standing longer than he wants and 4.71 absorbed per minute against a 56% defence turns into the Joshua Van card.

The fight's central axis

Eighty Seconds a Round

Across 54 Octagon rounds Tim Elliott averages 99, 80 and 95 seconds of control. Across Edgar Cháirez's nine rounds the same numbers are 8, 7 and 14. That is close to eighty seconds a round of pure positional difference, and it is what 3.61 takedowns per fifteen minutes buys against a 48% defence.

3.61
Elliott takedowns per 15 min — without a refreshed division rank
Why the dog is live

Five of Eleven

Elliott has never been stopped by strikes and has never been knocked down in the Octagon — zero across 54 rounds. But five of his eleven UFC losses are submissions, and every one of them happened in the grappling he started. Cháirez attempts 1.44 submissions per fifteen minutes, 7th in the division.

1.44
Cháirez submission attempts per 15 min — 7th of 45
The round-by-round correction

A Fighter Who Has Only Ever Fought at Range

96.0% of Cháirez's first-round output lands at distance, 96.9% in the second, 100.0% in the third. Three clinch strikes and three ground strikes in five Octagon appearances — 2% each. He is not a grappler who strikes; he is a kickboxer with submission reflexes.

The number that caps the lean

The Exposure Curve

Opponents attempt 0.19 submissions on Elliott in the first round, 0.24 in the second and 0.29 in the third. His own attempts peak at 0.53 in the second and collapse to 0.14 in the third. The longer his own grappling fight runs, the worse that trade gets — and he is 39.

The honest caveat

Nine Rounds Against Fifty-Four

Every Cháirez figure on this page — 46% striking defence, 4.71 absorbed, 1.44 submission attempts, 48% takedown defence — rests on five Octagon appearances and nine rounds. Two of those rounds are second rounds and two are third rounds. The direction is clear; the magnitude is a sample-size argument.

The Five-Round Clock

Tim Elliott danger windowEdgar Cháirez danger windowNeutral / contested
R1 · 0:00–5:00Both men's best round

Cháirez's entire finishing record lives here — both wins inside 2:30, 0.80 submission attempts per opening round and his only Octagon knockdown. So does Elliott's heaviest control round: 99 seconds, his career high.

Critical Insight
The clock runs one way with a trapdoor in it. Every minute after the first favours Elliott on the scorecards — more control, more output, an opponent whose measured production declines — but his own vulnerability climbs on the same curve, from 0.19 opposing submission attempts in the first round to 0.29 in the third. He wins by lasting; he loses by lasting badly.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

05

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things
1

Tim Elliott lands 3.61 takedowns per fifteen minutes, without a refreshed division rank, into a 48% takedown defence with no refreshed rank — and he controls 99, 80 and 95 seconds a round to Cháirez's 8, 7 and 14.

2

Five of Elliott's eleven UFC losses are submissions and none are by strikes. Cháirez attempts 1.44 submissions per fifteen minutes, 7th in the division. He does not need to win the wrestling; he needs one neck.

3

Model: Elliott 55% / Cháirez 45%, conviction 3/10 — the lowest-conviction lean on the Glendale prelim card, and deliberately so.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Elliott Decision — 28%Elliott Submission — 21%Elliott KO/TKO — 6%Cháirez Submission — 23%Cháirez Decision — 14%Cháirez KO/TKO — 8%

Each square = 1 simulated fight. Tim Elliott gold · Edgar Cháirez orange · full color = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Wrestling initiative

3.61 takedowns per fifteen minutes into 48% defence decides who chooses the phase. In every branch where the entries stick, Elliott's decision bucket (28 of 100) is the largest single outcome on the page.

The submission lottery

Cháirez's 23 submission win-shares are the second-largest bucket, and they come almost entirely from positions Elliott creates himself. Five of his eleven UFC losses ended this way.

Defensive striking

56% against 46%, and 3.00 absorbed per minute against 4.71, with output level at 3.51 to 3.44. Every standing minute is a trade Elliott wins — which is why Cháirez's decision bucket is only 14.

Age and round tax

39 against 30, and opponents' submission attempts on Elliott rise every round: 0.19, 0.24, 0.29. The model applies the discount that the composites do not.

Sample asymmetry

54 Octagon rounds against nine. Cháirez's 46% striking defence and 48% takedown defence could both regress upward with a bigger sample, which is the single biggest reason conviction sits at three.

Fight Scripts

0%
of simulations

The Control Fight

Elliott shoots inside the first minute, rides eighty-plus seconds a round, and never gives Cháirez the scramble he needs. Fifteen minutes of positional dominance against a man who has landed three ground strikes in his career — the Tatsuro Taira performance, run again.

Scripted outcomes for Tim Elliott vs Edgar Cháirez — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Tim Elliott win probability
0%
6%
28%
21%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Six points, and they are generous. He has never knocked anyone out in 21 Octagon bouts and his knockdown average is 0.12, 30th of 45. These are ground-and-pound stoppages, not punches.

  • His largest bucket and the shape of seven of his ten UFC wins: takedowns, eighty-plus seconds of control a round, and a card nobody enjoys watching.

  • Twenty-one points. All three of his UFC finishes are submissions, his attempt rate peaks at 0.53 in the second round, and Cháirez has been on the wrong end of nine rounds' worth of that pressure exactly never — because nobody has taken him down.

Edgar Cháirez win probability
0%
8%
14%
23%
KO/TKODECSUB

  • Eight points off a 0.28 knockdown average, 23rd in the division, and five inches of reach. Elliott has never been knocked down in 54 Octagon rounds, which caps this bucket hard.

  • Only fourteen, because winning fifteen minutes requires him to stay upright against 3.61 takedowns per fifteen and then out-point a 56% striking defence with a 46% one. Taira and Van both showed what that looks like.

  • His largest bucket by some distance. 1.44 attempts per fifteen minutes, 7th of 45, aimed at a fighter who has been submitted five times in eleven UFC losses — and who will hand him the position voluntarily.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round
R1
Tim
R2
Tim
R3
Tim
30-27 Elliott
The takedowns land from the opening bell and never stop
The most likely card in a fight that reaches them
29-28 Elliott
Cháirez steals the first with leg kicks before the wrestling takes over
The competitive version, and common
29-28 Cháirez
The entries miss and 71 inches of reach wins a kickboxing match
His only realistic path to the cards — 14 of his 45 win-shares

Model and price

Tim Elliott

Freshness unverified
Model win probability
55%
Fair decimal odds
1.82
Reference quote+186 (BetOnline)
Estimated EV
+57.3%
Edge vs no-vig market
+21.3 pp

Quote verified:

Edgar Cháirez

Freshness unverified
Model win probability
45%
Fair decimal odds
2.22
Reference quote-220 (BetOnline)
Estimated EV
-34.5%
Edge vs no-vig market
-21.3 pp

Quote verified:

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash means that comparison is unavailable.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Date-only snapshots have no verified capture time.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Tim Elliott

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 1.82 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Edgar Cháirez

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Required decimal price: 2.23 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Props: model vs recorded price (0)

No prop prices recorded in this analysis.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

Cháirez by submission is the live underdog prop the analysis flags, and the simulation backs it: 23 of his 45 win-shares, the second-largest single bucket on the page. If the market prices Elliott's wrestling edge without discounting for five submission losses in eleven defeats, the underdog's inside-the-distance side is where the model disagrees most. Elliott by decision, at 28 win-shares, is the structural path when the entries stick and the necks stay safe.

Conviction
0
3/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

A clear structural lean on wrestling initiative into the division's 41st-ranked takedown defence, held to three out of ten because the favourite's own best phase is the phase he has lost five fights in, and because he turns 40 in December. Lean: Tim Elliott.

What backs the lean

  • 3.61 takedowns per fifteen minutes (updated career rate) into 48% takedown defence (updated career rate).

  • 99, 80 and 95 seconds of control per round against Cháirez's 8, 7 and 14.

  • 56% striking defence and 3.00 absorbed per minute against 46% and 4.71, on level output.

  • Twenty-one Octagon bouts, 54 rounds and a championship-rounds appearance, against five bouts and nine rounds.

What limits it

  • Five of Elliott's eleven UFC losses are submissions, and Cháirez's 1.44 attempts per fifteen minutes rank 7th in the division.

  • Opposing submission attempts on Elliott rise every round — 0.19, 0.24, 0.29 — and he is 39 years old.

  • Cháirez carries five inches of reach and nine years, and lands 96-100% of his output at exactly that range.

  • Every Cháirez figure comes from nine Octagon rounds; his defensive numbers have as much room to improve as to hold.

Final Assessment

This is the widest single-phase mismatch on the Glendale prelim card and the model still only makes it 55-45. Tim Elliott is without a refreshed division rank in takedown volume and Edgar Cháirez is 41st in takedown defence; Elliott controls between eighty and a hundred seconds of every round he fights and Cháirez has never controlled anyone for more than fourteen. On the scorecards that is not a close fight.

The reason it is close anyway is that Elliott's best phase is also the only phase in which he has ever lost. Five of his eleven UFC defeats are submissions — Figueiredo, Benavidez, Nguyen in 49 seconds, Royval, Mokaev — and none are by strikes, because he has never been knocked down in 54 Octagon rounds. Cháirez attempts 1.44 submissions per fifteen minutes, 7th in the division, and both of his UFC wins ended inside 150 seconds. He does not need to out-wrestle a 39-year-old. He needs the 39-year-old to hand him a neck, which is a thing that has happened five times.

The honest read: take Elliott, take him narrowly, and expect it to be decided in a scramble rather than on technique. Twenty-eight of his 55 win-shares are decisions and 23 of Cháirez's 45 are submissions — the two most likely outcomes on the page point in opposite directions, which is precisely why conviction sits at three.

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