Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs Curtis Blaydes – UFC Fight Night: Silva vs. Delgado Fight Analytics & Prediction

MAIN CARD · HEAVYWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDSUFC Fight Night: Silva vs. Delgado

Waldo Cortes-Acosta

“Salsa Boy”

17W3L

Volume Kickboxer

Curtis Blaydes

“Razor”

19W6L

Chain Wrestler

Thirty-one strikes in the second round against six minutes on the mat

HeavyweightDesert Diamond Arena, Glendale, ArizonaSeptember 12, 2026Standard 30ft Octagon

Fight overview

The fight in 30 seconds

Blaydes's wrestling and longer historical control time give him a route to take away Cortes-Acosta's boxing exchanges. Watch the first scramble after each entry: quick returns to the feet would make Blaydes spend energy without securing the attacking positions he needs.

Paths that change the fight

Waldo Cortes-AcostaStuff the chain, not the shot. If he is still standing at distance in the second round — where his output rises to 31.2 significant strikes and Blaydes's takedown rate falls to its lowest — he wins a kickboxing match against a man with five knockout losses.
Curtis BlaydesThree entries, one per round. He does not need a finish; 107 seconds of first-round control and 169 in the third is a 29-28 card before anything else happens.

What limits this estimate · Analyst conviction: 4/10

Five of his six defeats are knockouts, into an opponent who drops 0.78 opponents per fifteen minutes.
Cortes-Acosta lands 5.34 significant strikes per minute to Blaydes's 4.18 and has never been finished or dropped.

Editorial assessment of the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

Waldo Cortes-Acosta

Quote age unknown

Model win probability: 42%
Fair odds: +138

Reference quote: -185 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 2.38

Curtis Blaydes

Quote age unknown

Model win probability: 58%
Fair odds: -138

Reference quote: +161 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 1.72

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Quotes listed with a date but no time are treated as undated.

Sources and data limitations

Career statistics and fight results through September 2026. Statistics may include bouts outside the UFC where noted. Composite scores, win probabilities, fair prices and analyst conviction are MMA Analytics estimates, not observed outcomes.

Model methodology

Read the evidence Inspect prices and assumptions

The Frame

What this fight is really about — and the measurements that shape it

The Analyst's Take

A heavyweight identity clash with almost no overlap. Waldo Cortes-Acosta lands 5.34 significant strikes per minute — 7th of 36 active heavyweights — and 85% of his career output lands standing at distance; he has never been finished, and all his defeats have come on the cards. Curtis Blaydes attempts 5.12 takedowns per fifteen minutes, 4th in the division against a 1.60 average, and banks 107, 87 and 169 seconds of control across the three rounds of a normal fight. Five of Blaydes's six losses are knockouts. The fight is one question asked three times: does the shot land, or does the punch?

Waldo Cortes-Acosta

Attribute

Curtis Blaydes

34Corrected from the editorial assessment

Age

6'4"

Height

6'4"

78"

Reach

+2" Blaydes80"

—

Leg Reach

—

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

#5 Heavyweight

UFC Ranking

#4 Heavyweight

—

Team

Dutch Style MMA / UFC Gym Lombard, IL

Oct 29, 2022

Octagon Debut

Apr 10, 2016

High-volume kickboxing at range

Fighting Style

Chain wrestling into top control

Frames are all but identical — both men measure 76 inches tall, and the reach gap is two inches. Age is a wash inside eighteen months: Cortes-Acosta is 34 on fight night, Blaydes 35. What separates them is Octagon mileage. Blaydes debuted in April 2016 and has twenty-one UFC bouts and five knockout defeats behind him; Cortes-Acosta debuted in October 2022 and has thirteen, with no defeat ending early. Leg kicks matter here: 28.7% of Blaydes's opening-round strikes land on the legs.

Venue Factor
A full-size 30ft Octagon is the neutral surface, and neutral favours the kickboxer marginally: extra space punishes a failed level change and lengthens the walk back to the fence. But Blaydes has spent a decade closing exactly that distance — 64 takedown attempts in first rounds alone across twenty Octagon fights, 35 of them landing. Three rounds also compresses the fight into the shape he prefers: he does not need a finish, he needs entries, and 363 seconds of average control across three rounds is a scorecard whether or not anything else happens.

The Fighters

Careers, chins, schedules — and the form they bring into the cage

Waldo Cortes-Acosta

Pro Record

17-3-0

UFC Record

10-3 across thirteen bouts

Streak

Three straight before Volkov — Delija, Gaziev and Derrick Lewis, all inside the distance

Finish Rate

59% of wins (10 of 17) — 9 KO/TKO, 1 submission

Avg Fight Time

10:23

Chin · Never finishedSOS · Ranked heavyweightStriker (statistical record label) — high-volume distance kickboxing

Four years from debut to the top five. He arrived in October 2022 as a decision-winner — Vanderaa, Sherman, Arlovski, Despaigne, Spivac all went the distance — and then turned into a finisher: Ryan Spann in the second, Ante Delija in the first, Shamil Gaziev in 1:22, Derrick Lewis in the second at UFC 324. The rate line explains it. He lands 5.34 significant strikes per minute against a divisional average of 4.79, and 85% of his career output lands standing, 4% in the clinch, 10% on the ground. The losses are as informative as the wins: Pavlovich, de Lima and Volkov all beat him on the cards, and none of the three could put him down. Zero knockdowns absorbed across thirteen Octagon fights.

Curtis Blaydes

Pro Record

19-6-0 (1 NC)

UFC Record

14-6 with one no-contest across twenty-one bouts since 2016

Streak

Lost his last — unanimous decision to Josh Hokit (UFC 327, Apr 2026), after a split decision over Rizvan Kuniev in June 2025

Finish Rate

68% of wins (13 of 19) — 13 KO/TKO

Avg Fight Time

8:56

Chin · Vulnerable — five of his six losses are knockoutsSOS · Championship-adjacentChain wrestler into ground-and-pound (statistical record label: MMA)

A decade of the same fight, executed better than almost anyone in the division's history. Blaydes attempts 5.12 takedowns per fifteen minutes — fourth of 36 active heavyweights, more than three times the 1.60 average — and 38% of his career significant strikes land on the ground against 49% standing. It has produced a five-round decision over Alexander Volkov, knockouts of Overeem, Dos Santos, Daukaus and Jailton Almeida, and a title eliminator résumé. It has also produced a single, consistent failure mode: five of his six defeats are knockouts, to Ngannou twice, Derrick Lewis, Sergei Pavlovich and Tom Aspinall. His only decision loss came against Josh Hokit at UFC 327 in April 2026, and he has never been submitted. If he is beaten, he is beaten upright and early.

Waldo Cortes-Acosta

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Knockdown Exchange

Knockdowns dealt vs absorbed.

Curtis Blaydes

0 dealt · 0 absorbed

Waldo Cortes-Acostasignature weapons

Distance Boxing Volume5.34 significant strikes per minute (7th of 36) with 85% of career output landing standing; 31.2 strikes in an average second round

×5

The Late-Round Right Hand0.78 knockdowns per fifteen minutes (10th of 36) — Ryan Spann at 4:48 of the second, Derrick Lewis at 3:14 of the second

×2

Curtis Blaydessignature weapons

Chain Double-Leg5.12 takedowns per fifteen minutes, 4th of 36; 35 of 64 first-round attempts landed across twenty Octagon fights

×6

Top-Position Ground-and-Pound38% of career significant strikes land on the ground; Jailton Almeida stopped in 36 seconds of the second round

×8

Waldo Cortes-Acosta

Alexander Volkov

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: elite

UFC 328 — May 9, 2026

Derrick Lewis

TKO — punches

Opponent context: veteran

R2 (3:14)

UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett — Jan 24, 2026

Shamil Gaziev

KO — punches

Opponent context: prospect

R1 (1:22)

UFC FN: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker — Nov 22, 2025

Ante Delija

KO — punches

Opponent context: prospect

R1 (3:59)

UFC FN: Garcia vs. Onama — Nov 1, 2025

Sergei Pavlovich

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: elite

UFC FN: Walker vs. Zhang — Aug 23, 2025

Pattern

The shape is unusually legible: he stops power heavyweights who stand and trade, and he loses decisions to long, disciplined kickboxers who refuse to trade. Delija, Gaziev and Lewis were finished in the first two rounds. Pavlovich, de Lima and Volkov out-managed the distance for fifteen minutes and won the cards without ever hurting him. Blaydes fits neither template — he is not a puncher standing in the pocket, and he is not a range manager. He is the first opponent in a while whose plan is to remove the fight from the ledger entirely.

Curtis Blaydes

Josh Hokit

Decision — Unanimous

Opponent context: prospect

UFC FN — Apr 11, 2026

Rizvan Kuniev

Decision — Split

Opponent context: prospect

UFC FN: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. — Jun 21, 2025

Tom Aspinall

KO — punches

Opponent context: elite

R1 (1:00)

UFC 304 — Interim Title — Jul 27, 2024

Jailton Almeida

KO — punches

Opponent context: elite

R2 (0:36)

UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 — Mar 9, 2024

Sergei Pavlovich

TKO — punches

Opponent context: elite

R1 (3:08)

UFC FN: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes — Apr 22, 2023

Pattern

Five fights, three of them finishes and two of them decisions — the Hokit loss and the Kuniev split. Blaydes beat Tom Aspinall in fifteen seconds in 2022 and was knocked out by him in sixty seconds at UFC 304; that pair of results is the whole scouting report. When the wrestling arrives he banks minutes nobody can take back — Almeida, a grappler, was knocked out from top position in 36 seconds. When a heavyweight with timing catches him coming forward, it ends. The Kuniev split decision was a return to the grinding identity after the Aspinall loss, and it was close.

Waldo Cortes-Acosta

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Curtis Blaydes

Win Methods

Wins by Round

Critical Insight
Cortes-Acosta: 9 KO/TKOs, 1 submission and 7 decisions in 17 professional wins. Of Cortes-Acosta's 10 finishes, five in round one, four in round two and one in round three. Blaydes: 13 KO/TKOs, 0 submissions and 6 decisions in 19 professional wins. Of Blaydes's 13 finishes, three in round one, eight in round two and two in round three. The round bars count every professional win, with decisions in the DEC column.

Common Opponents

Opponent	Waldo	Curtis
Sergei Pavlovich	L· UD3 (Aug 2025) — lost every round, never hurt	L· KO/TKO R1 3:08 (Apr 2023)
The chin asymmetry, measured against the same man: one lost fifteen minutes on the cards, the other lost three minutes standing
Derrick Lewis	W· KO/TKO R2 3:14 (UFC 324)	L· KO/TKO R2 1:26 (Feb 2021)
Cortes-Acosta out-struck and stopped the heavyweight who knocked Blaydes out — the single most direct data point on the page
Alexander Volkov	L· UD3 (UFC 328)	W· UD5 (Jun 2020) — five rounds of control
Blaydes wrestled Volkov for twenty-five minutes; Cortes-Acosta could not solve the same range manager over fifteen

0.0

Waldo

0.0

Curtis

Two composite points and a 58-42 model line. This is a close fight priced by one repeated event: the success rate of a level change.

Metric	Waldo	Curtis
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	10:23	8:56
Pace Tier	Elite volume — 5.34 SLpM (7th/36)	Mid volume — 4.18 SLpM (16th/36)
R3/R1 OutputR3/R1 OutputThird-round output as % of first-round output. Above 100% = builds into the fight; below = fades.	181% (31.1 vs 17.2 sig)	141% (19.7 vs 14.0 sig)
Control per Round	40 / 22 / 22 sec — 84 total	107 / 87 / 169 sec — 363 total
Champ RoundsChamp RoundsEvidence from rounds 4-5 — only fighters with five-round experience have data here.	None on record	R4: 3 TD, 219 sec · R5: 2 TD, 206 sec (1 five-round bout)

Archetype Base Rate

High-Volume Kickboxer 42%58% Chain Wrestler / Top Control

Matchup-specific read of this booking · No historical archetype win-rate is applied here. The 58-42 line is the editorial assessment's adjustment of the site model's 40-60, nudged toward the underdog by his 78-inch reach and 5.34 SLpM volume. The lean stays with the wrestler.

Waldo Cortes-AcostaCurtis Blaydes

Heavyweight

· 36 fighters

Rank bars use the recorded division cohort. Where no rank is shown, the comparison shows the difference from the published division average; the white marker denotes equality. Percentage differences are percentage points (pp). Higher is not always better: fewer strikes absorbed is preferable.

Stat	Waldo	Waldo comparison	Div avg	Curtis comparison	Curtis
SLpMSLpMSignificant Strikes Landed per Minute — offensive striking volume. Higher = busier striker.	5.34	7/36	~4.79	16/36	4.18
Str AccStr AccStriking Accuracy — share of significant strikes thrown that land. Higher = more precise.	48%	18/36	~52.2%	11/36	52%
Str DefStr DefStriking Defense — share of opponents' significant strikes that do NOT land. Higher = harder to hit.	54%	14/36	~50.8%	15/36	53%
SApMSApMSignificant Strikes Absorbed per Minute — how much a fighter gets hit. Lower = better.	3.63	23/36	~4.20	8/36elite	2.76
KD AvgKD AvgKnockdown Average — knockdowns scored per 15 minutes. The one-shot power indicator.	0.78	10/36	~0.86	22/36	0.17
Damage RatioDamage RatioSignificant strikes landed divided by significant strikes absorbed. Above 1 means more landed than absorbed; compare with the division average shown in this table. Strike counts do not measure damage severity.	1.47	—	~1.14	—	1.51
TD/15TD/15Takedowns Landed per 15 minutes — wrestling pressure / takedown engine.	0.40	24/36	~1.60	4/36elite	5.12
TD Acc	50%	9/36	~36.8%	12/36	47%
TD DefTD DefTakedown Defense — share of opponents' takedown attempts stuffed.	73%	13/36	~71.0%	25/36	35%
Sub/15Sub/15Submission Attempts per 15 minutes — how actively a fighter hunts the finish on the mat.	0.10	15/36	~0.36	16/36	0.00
Strike Location	85% standing / 10% ground	—	—	—	49% standing / 38% ground
Avg Fight TimeAvg Fight TimeAverage fight duration — long averages mark proven cardio and decision-ready grinders.	10:23	—	—	—	8:56

Statistical Verdict
Blaydes's takedown line is historically among the best the division has produced and the table says so plainly: 5.12 takedowns per fifteen minutes, fourth of 36 active heavyweights, against a divisional average of 1.60 — more than three times the field. Pair it with 2.76 significant strikes absorbed per minute and you have a fighter who takes limited damage while banking control. The counterweights are equally clear. His own takedown defence is 35%, and his 0.17 knockdown average is 22nd. Cortes-Acosta ranks 7th in output, 10th in knockdown rate and 13th in takedown defence at 73% — above the 71.0% average, but that number has never met an attacker at Blaydes's volume.

Significant Strikes Landed per Round

Control Time per Round (sec)

Waldo Cortes-Acosta

His output nearly doubles after the opening five minutes: 17.2 significant strikes in the first round, 31.2 in the second, 31.1 in the third. He is an accelerator, not a blitzer.
He barely leaves distance — 87.9%, 84.3% and 90.8% of his round-by-round offence lands at range, with clinch shares of 5.8%, 2.5% and 1.8%. There is no phase of his game that wants the fence.
The knockdowns are early: 0.33 per first round and 0.22 per second, then zero in seven third rounds. His targeting migrates upward too — 59.2% head in the first round, 78.0% by the third — while body work falls from 23.3% to 10.1%.

Curtis Blaydes

The wrestling arrives immediately and returns late: 1.75 takedowns landed in an average first round from 3.2 attempts, 0.88 in the second, 1.43 in the third. Control follows the same curve — 107, 87, then 169 seconds.
His striking is a by-product of position. Ground share climbs from 31.5% of first-round offence to 46.1% in the second and 42.0% in the third, while distance share falls from 53.8% to the low forties.
The third round is his most efficient: 19.7 significant strikes at 62% accuracy off 169 seconds of control across seven third rounds. He also has one fourth and one fifth round on record — 3 and 2 takedowns, 219 and 206 seconds of control — which are excluded here because this is a three-round bout.

Critical Insight
The two curves cross in the second round and that is the fight. Cortes-Acosta's output jumps 81% between the first and second rounds, precisely when Blaydes's takedown rate dips to its lowest point of the fight at 0.88 and his control drops to 87 seconds. If Cortes-Acosta is still upright at the ten-minute mark he is fighting in his best round against Blaydes's worst. The problem is the round before it: 1.75 takedowns and 107 seconds of control in an average opening five minutes is a round already banked, and 90.8% of Cortes-Acosta's third-round offence lands at a range he will not reach if his back is on the fence.

Strike targeting

Waldo

72%

15%

13%

Head

72%

Body

15%

Legs

13%

Curtis

68%

11%

21%

Head

68%

Body

11%

Legs

21%

Head hunting vs body work vs leg attack — the shape of the damage.

Striking range — distance, clinch and ground

WaldoCurtis

88%Distance48%

3%Clinch13%

9%Ground39%

Share of significant strikes landed at distance, in the clinch and on the ground across each fighter's UFC rounds, weighted by strike volume.

The Story of the Fight

Advantages, worst cases, gameplans — and the patterns underneath

Where the fight lives

Who owns each phase — and by how much

Open SpaceWaldo owns it

5.34 SLpM (7th/36) against 4.18 (20th), with 87.9% of his first-round offence landing at distance

Pocket / ExchangesWaldo owns it

0.78 knockdown average (10th/36) into a fighter with five knockout losses

ClinchCurtis owns it

14.7% of Blaydes's first-round strikes land in the clinch against Cortes-Acosta's 5.8%, falling to 1.8% by round three

GroundCurtis owns it

5.12 TD/15 (4th/36), 363 seconds of control across three rounds and 38% of career strikes from top position

Path to Victory

Waldo Cortes-Acosta

Stuff the chain, not the shot. If he is still standing at distance in the second round — where his output rises to 31.2 significant strikes and Blaydes's takedown rate falls to its lowest — he wins a kickboxing match against a man with five knockout losses.

Why they win

Fifty percent more volume

5.34 significant strikes per minute to 4.18, 7th of 36 heavyweights against 20th. In any minute the fight is upright and at range, he is out-landing Blaydes comfortably.

Never been finished

Thirteen Octagon fights, zero knockdowns absorbed, and all three career defeats on the scorecards. Pavlovich needed fifteen minutes and a decision; the same man knocked Blaydes out in 3:08.

He beat the man who knocked Blaydes out

Derrick Lewis stopped Blaydes in the second round in 2021. Cortes-Acosta stopped Lewis in the second round at UFC 324.

Takedown defence above the divisional line

73% against a 71.0% average, 13th of 36 — and 0.78 knockdowns per fifteen minutes, 10th, waiting for a failed entry.

The second-round crossover

His output climbs 81% between rounds one and two exactly as Blaydes's takedown rate bottoms out at 0.88 and control falls to 87 seconds.

The gameplan

1
Fight in the middle of the cage
87.9% of his first-round offence lands at distance and 1.8% of his third-round offence lands in the clinch. Every second against the fence is a second his game does not exist.
2
Punish the failed entry
Blaydes lands 35 of 64 first-round attempts, which means 29 of them fail. 0.78 knockdowns per fifteen minutes is what a failed shot should cost.
3
Survive round one, then throw
The whole plan is chronological. His output goes 17.2 to 31.2 between rounds one and two; Blaydes's control goes 107 to 87. Reach the second round upright.
4
Get up immediately, not comfortably
He has 84 seconds of career control across a full three rounds — he has never had to fight from the bottom against anyone like this. Minutes surrendered on the mat are unrecoverable on a three-round card.
5
Work the body early
23.3% of his first-round output goes to the body, his highest share of any round. A heavyweight who wants to shoot three times a round is a heavyweight whose ribs decide the third.

Path to Victory

Curtis Blaydes

Three entries, one per round. He does not need a finish; 107 seconds of first-round control and 169 in the third is a 29-28 card before anything else happens.

Why they win

A top-four takedown engine

5.12 landed per fifteen minutes against a divisional average of 1.60 — fourth of 36, and more than thirteen times Cortes-Acosta's 0.40.

Six minutes of control a fight

107, 87 and 169 seconds across three rounds is 363 seconds — over a fifth of the fight spent in a position his opponent has essentially never had to defend.

He takes limited damage

2.76 significant strikes absorbed per minute against Cortes-Acosta's 3.63. Wrestling is also defence.

Twenty-one Octagon fights and championship rounds

A five-round decision over Alexander Volkov, an interim title shot, and wins over Overeem, Hunt, Dos Santos and Almeida. Cortes-Acosta has never fought past fifteen minutes.

His third round is his best

19.7 significant strikes at 62% accuracy off 169 seconds of control — the round most opponents fade in is the round he lands most efficiently.

The gameplan

1
Enter in the first ninety seconds
1.75 takedowns and 107 seconds of control in an average opening round, before the 31-strike second round arrives. The earlier the entry, the cheaper it is.
2
Chain, never single
73% takedown defence stops a shot; it does not stop the third attempt of a sequence against the fence. Cortes-Acosta has faced 0.40 takedowns per fifteen minutes of his own, not five.
3
Do not kickbox for free
4.18 SLpM against 5.34 is a losing trade at range, and 0.78 knockdowns per fifteen minutes is exactly the number that ended his nights against Lewis, Pavlovich and Aspinall.
4
Ground-and-pound to hold position
38% of his career strikes land on the ground and Almeida was finished from top in 36 seconds. Damage discourages the scramble and turns control into a judged round.
5
Bank the third
169 seconds of control at 62% accuracy is his best round on record. If the card is level after ten minutes, the closing five are statistically his.

Danger Zone

How Waldo Cortes-Acosta loses

The first shot lands inside ninety seconds and the round becomes 107 seconds of fence and mat. On a three-round card that single event is a third of the scorecard.
He spends the second round standing up instead of throwing, and the 31.2-strike surge that is his entire statistical case never happens.
73% takedown defence is a rate against ordinary attempt volume. Against 3.2 attempts in an opening round alone, one stop in four is a lot of successful entries.

Danger Zone

How Curtis Blaydes loses

A level change is timed and he is caught coming in. Five of his six defeats are knockouts, and Cortes-Acosta drops 0.78 opponents per fifteen minutes.
The entries fail early, the fight becomes a kickboxing match, and he is out-landed by 55% for the ten minutes he cannot get it to the floor.
Derrick Lewis knocked him out in the second round and Cortes-Acosta knocked Lewis out in the second round. The transitive tape is not flattering.

The fight's central axis

Five-Point-Three-Eight

Curtis Blaydes lands 5.12 takedowns per fifteen minutes — fourth of 36 active heavyweights, against a divisional average of 1.60. Waldo Cortes-Acosta has defended a career total of 0.40 takedown attempts per fifteen minutes of his own opposition. His 73% defensive rate is real, but it has never been asked the question three times a round.

5.12

Blaydes takedowns per 15 min — 4th of 36, vs a 1.60 average

Why the dog is live

The Chin Asymmetry

Five of Blaydes's six losses are knockouts — Ngannou twice, Lewis, Pavlovich, Aspinall. Cortes-Acosta has never been finished and has absorbed zero knockdowns in thirteen Octagon fights; all three of his defeats are decisions. In a division where durability is a skill, one man has it and the other has been beaten mostly by not having it.

Knockdowns absorbed by Cortes-Acosta in 13 UFC fights

The same opponent, two different answers

Sergei Pavlovich, Twice

Pavlovich beat both men. He needed a full fifteen minutes and a unanimous decision to beat Cortes-Acosta, who was never dropped. He knocked Blaydes out in 3:08 of the first round. It is the cleanest controlled experiment on the card.

Where the curves meet

The Second-Round Crossover

Cortes-Acosta's output rises from 17.2 significant strikes in round one to 31.2 in round two — an 81% jump. Blaydes's takedown rate falls from 1.75 to 0.88 and his control from 107 to 87 seconds over the same interval. Minutes five to ten are the underdog's window, and both fighters' data agree on it.

+81%

Cortes-Acosta R1→R2 output increase

A game with one address

Ninety Percent at Distance

87.9%, 84.3% and 90.8% of Cortes-Acosta's round-by-round offence lands at range; his clinch share falls to 1.8% by the third round and only 10% of his career strikes land on the ground. He has no fence game and no bottom game on record — which is precisely the ground Blaydes contests.

The Five-Round Clock

Waldo Cortes-Acosta danger windowCurtis Blaydes danger windowNeutral / contested

R1 · 0:00–5:00Blaydes's entry window

1.75 takedowns landed from 3.2 attempts and 107 seconds of control in an average opening round. It is also where Cortes-Acosta drops 0.33 opponents per round, so the round is not free — but it is where the wrestler's model is at its most efficient.

Critical Insight
This fight has a strict chronology and both men know it. Blaydes wants round one and round three — the two rounds where his control peaks at 107 and 169 seconds. Cortes-Acosta wants round two, the only round where his output surge and Blaydes's wrestling trough land in the same five minutes. Whoever imposes their timeline takes two of three rounds, and on a three-round card that is the whole fight.

Finish Threat by Round

Share of each fighter's wins that end in each round — early finishers spike left, grinders rise right.

The Verdict

One hundred simulated fights, the betting market, and our conviction

If you only read 3 things

Curtis Blaydes attempts 5.12 takedowns per fifteen minutes — fourth of 36 active heavyweights, against a 1.60 divisional average — and banks 363 seconds of control across a three-round fight. Waldo Cortes-Acosta has 84.

Five of Blaydes's six losses are knockouts. Cortes-Acosta has never been finished, has absorbed zero knockdowns in thirteen Octagon fights, and stopped the Derrick Lewis who knocked Blaydes out.

Model: Blaydes 58% / Cortes-Acosta 42%, conviction 4/10 — a wrestling-tax lean held down by the underdog's 5.34 strikes a minute and the favourite's documented off-switch.

Model outcomes per 100 fights

Each square represents one percentage point of the model distribution, not an observed fight. This visualization does not measure model accuracy or reduce uncertainty in the inputs.

Blaydes Decision — 40%Cortes-Acosta Decision — 22%Cortes-Acosta KO/TKO — 18%Blaydes KO/TKO — 16%Cortes-Acosta Submission — 2%Blaydes Submission — 2%

Each square = 1 model percentage point. Waldo Cortes-Acosta gold · Curtis Blaydes orange · color opacity: 100% = decision, 70% = submission, 45% = KO/TKO.

Entry volume versus stop rate

5.12 takedowns per fifteen minutes against 73% defence. Even at a quarter conversion, three attempts a round produce enough control to decide a three-round card — which is why the Blaydes decision bucket is 40, the largest on the page.

The knockout asymmetry

Five of Blaydes's six losses are knockouts and Cortes-Acosta has never been dropped, let alone finished. That single fact is worth 18 win-shares to the underdog and caps conviction at 4 out of 10.

Round-two timing

Cortes-Acosta's output rises 81% into the second round exactly as Blaydes's takedown rate falls to its low. If the fight is standing at the ten-minute mark, the 22-point decision bucket for the Dominican becomes live.

Damage economics

Blaydes absorbs 2.76 significant strikes per minute. He is not merely a wrestler — he takes less damage than most kickboxers while banking control, which is how a 4.18 SLpM fighter survives volume.

Common-opponent evidence

Cortes-Acosta stopped Derrick Lewis, who knocked Blaydes out. Pavlovich needed a decision to beat Cortes-Acosta and 3:08 to beat Blaydes. The transitive read favours the underdog and the wrestling read favours the favourite; the model splits the difference at 58-42.

Fight Scripts

of simulations

The Wrestling Hourglass

Blaydes enters inside the first ninety seconds, chains against the fence and banks 107 seconds of round one. Cortes-Acosta wins the second on volume, Blaydes re-taxes in the third with 169 seconds of control, and it is 29-28 on two cards. The single most likely outcome on the page.

Scripted outcomes for Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs Curtis Blaydes — how each version of this fight unfolds.

Waldo Cortes-Acosta win probability

18%

22%

KO/TKODECSUB

0.78 knockdowns per fifteen minutes, 10th of 36, aimed at a fighter with five knockout defeats. Three of his five Octagon stoppages arrived in the first round and two in the second — the same windows Blaydes has been finished in.
His largest bucket, and it needs ten upright minutes. 5.34 strikes a minute against 4.18 wins any judged fight that stays at range, which is why the decision path outscores the knockout path.
Two points. He has 0.10 submission attempts per fifteen minutes and no Octagon submission win; these are scramble outcomes rather than a hunted path.

Curtis Blaydes win probability

16%

40%

KO/TKODECSUB

Eight of his fourteen Octagon wins ended inside the distance, six of them in the second round after a round of control. Against a man who has never been dropped, the finish is a by-product of position rather than a plan.
The single largest bucket on the page at 40. 363 seconds of control across three rounds decides a three-round card without a single moment of danger, and he has six UFC decision wins to prove the shape.
Two points. He records 0.00 submission attempts per fifteen minutes and has never submitted anyone in the Octagon — these are opportunistic chokes off a scramble, not a threat to plan around.

Projected Scorecards

How the model scores each round

Curtis

Waldo

Curtis

29-28 Blaydes

Control in the first and third, volume in the second

The most likely card in a fight that reaches them

30-27 Blaydes

The entries land every round and the surge never arrives

Common if round one goes badly for the Dominican

29-28 Cortes-Acosta

One stuffed round plus the second-round surge

His realistic path to the cards, and it needs a failed first round from Blaydes

Model and price

Waldo Cortes-Acosta

Quote age unknown

Model win probability: 42%
Fair odds: +138

Reference quote: -185 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 2.38

Estimated EV: -35.3%
Edge vs no-vig market: -20.9 pp

Curtis Blaydes

Quote age unknown

Model win probability: 58%
Fair odds: -138

Reference quote: +161 (BetOnline)
Fair decimal odds: 1.72

Estimated EV: +51.4%
Edge vs no-vig market: +20.9 pp

EV uses the displayed price: probability × decimal odds − 1. Edge is a percentage-point difference from a proportionally de-vigged, same-book pair. A dash marks a price without a same-book pair to compare.

Price freshness & calculation notes

Quotes older than 48 hours are marked outdated. EV at an old or undated price is a historical calculation, not a current opportunity. Quotes listed with a date but no time are treated as undated.

Fair odds are the break-even price under this estimate, not a recommended entry price. Model uncertainty can erase a small edge.

What price would change the calculation? · Waldo Cortes-Acosta

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 2.39 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

What price would change the calculation? · Curtis Blaydes

Change the assumptions to see how the required price moves. This does not update the published model or recommend an entry price.

Assumed win probability (%)Your target estimated EV (%)

Required decimal price: 1.73 or higher. At the exact unrounded break-even price, estimated EV is zero.

Original analyst price notes

These notes describe the original analysis and may refer to older prices.

Cortes-Acosta by KO/TKO is the live underdog side the analysis flags and the simulation supports: 18 of his 42 win-shares, in a matchup where the favourite has been knocked out five times and the underdog has never been dropped. On the other side, Blaydes by decision is the structural chalk — 40 of 100 outcomes, the largest single bucket on the page. If the market prices Blaydes as a heavy favourite purely on the wrestling narrative, the underdog's inside-the-distance line is where the model disagrees most sharply.

Conviction

4/10

Editorial confidence in the evidence, not a win probability or a calibrated confidence interval.

A wrestling-tax lean on a fighter who takes 5.12 takedowns per fifteen minutes into a three-round card — held to four out of ten because his opponent has never been finished, out-strikes him by 55%, and five of the six losses on Blaydes's record are knockouts. Lean: Curtis Blaydes.

What backs the lean

5.12 takedowns per fifteen minutes, 4th of 36 heavyweights, against a divisional average of 1.60.
363 seconds of average control across three rounds, to Cortes-Acosta's 84.
2.76 significant strikes absorbed per minute against 3.63.
Twenty-one Octagon fights including championship rounds and a five-round decision over Alexander Volkov.

What limits it

Five of his six defeats are knockouts, into an opponent who drops 0.78 opponents per fifteen minutes.
Cortes-Acosta lands 5.34 significant strikes per minute to Blaydes's 4.18 and has never been finished or dropped.
The common opponents lean the other way: Cortes-Acosta stopped Derrick Lewis, who knocked Blaydes out; Pavlovich needed fifteen minutes for one and 3:08 for the other.
Blaydes's own takedown defence is 35%, and his knockdown average of 0.17 gives him almost no threat standing.

Final Assessment

The wrestling case is close to unanswerable on paper. Curtis Blaydes lands 5.12 takedowns per fifteen minutes against a heavyweight field that averages 1.60, and his control curve — 107 seconds in the first round, 169 in the third — is the shape of a three-round decision that never needs a single dangerous moment. Waldo Cortes-Acosta has spent his whole Octagon career at distance: 85% of his strikes land standing, 10% on the ground, and he has accumulated 84 seconds of control across an entire twelve-fight run. He has no fence game and no bottom game on record.

The reason this is 58-42 and not 70-30 is the other ledger. Blaydes has been beaten six times and five of them are knockouts — Ngannou twice, Lewis, Pavlovich, Aspinall. Cortes-Acosta has been beaten three times and every one of them is a decision, with zero knockdowns absorbed across thirteen fights. Then there is the cleanest evidence on the page: Derrick Lewis knocked Blaydes out in the second round, and Cortes-Acosta knocked Lewis out in the second round. The transitive tape and the wrestling tape point in opposite directions, which is exactly what a four-out-of-ten conviction looks like.

The honest read: take Blaydes narrowly, on entries rather than damage, and expect a 29-28 card built from a banked first round and a re-taxed third. But the second round belongs to Salsa Boy — 31 significant strikes at the exact moment the wrestling rate dips to its lowest — and if Blaydes is still upright at the ten-minute mark, the fight has quietly become the one he loses.

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